Today could be a wild day with Powell speaking at Jackson Hole this morning at 10am EST. We could see some fake out moves, and my thoughts on that is that we see a sharp drop first to retest the 8/1 low, and then a big squeeze the rest of the day and into early next week where we could see the upside FP of 655.66 on the SPY finally hit? Interestingly there's a 621.72 downside FP on the SPY from 8/4 (about 6266 ES), and if they do try to trick traders today (don't they always?... LOL) then we might see the first reaction after Powell is to go down hit that FP and then reverse hard the rest of the day.
It will trap all the shorts and take out all the longs in one fast move down, then up. It should also give the market the needed fuel to rally up to the 655.66 FP into next week. That will destroy the last bear as you know they have stops just above the current all time high (647.13 SPY), so another 80 points (ES/SPX) above that level will kill even the most diehard bears. Once that happens we can then get the much needed correction into the first 1-2 weeks of September where we "might" see the 588.79 FP hit on the SPY?
If we get a pullback from the 6600 ES zone to the low 5900's that's a good 10% and more then enough to work off a ton of overbought charts on various time frame. It will then allow the market to rally hard the rest of September and into October with everyone looking for another big drop. But it won't happen and instead we'll see 7400+ in a meltup that will end at some point with a crash. But who knows when that happens? For now let's just get past today and next week.
Have a great weekend.
