Ok, yesterday worked out well with a rally up to hit the stops on the bears. It's super close to a new high, but as I write this post after the close on Monday the futures are going sideways, so there's no way to know if they will make a new high or not? I don't lean that way, as I lean toward the new high being the rally going into November 6th, after a pullback to the mid-6400 zone into next Monday happening first.
But again, it's all just a best guess and you never know until after it's all over with. For now though I think we chop Tuesday without much upside, and maybe a little downside... but not much there either. The reason is the monthly VIX as the last trading day is today with it officially expiring all those monthly options at 9am EST on Wednesday, which is before the open so it can't be traded. Therefore I think "they" will keep the VIX flat or lower until after it expires, and that means the ES/SPX shouldn't do anything much today but chop.
If we make a new high, then the drop should be bigger I'd think, but assuming we don't then the drop should only take out the October 10th low by 50-100 points to hit the stops on bulls. The we rally into November 6th for (hopefully) a new higher high to kill the last bear alive. After that some kind of "event" should happen to cause a crash. I will explain more later if the current moves play out as I've forecast.
Have an blessed day.
