Same ol' same ol'.... the market continues to chop around going basically nowhere. Everything from last weeks' update is still valid and on track as I'm still expecting more rangebound action into the expected low around the 9th-11th. I don't know "how low" but I suspect the 7500 level will hold.
After that the market should turn back up for the rally up to the 787.13 fake print target on the SPY, which is about 7900 or so on the ES, and of course these fake prints get pierced through by some amount, so the low 7900's on the ES should be reached. It goes back to my thinking that once we get that close to the 8000 everyone will be super long looking for it to hit, but it should not hit as we all know that if everyone is on the same side of the boat it usually rolls over.
We'll see 8000+ but not until "after" a correction of 10-12% (most likely) or a deeper one to the 600.14 FP on the SPY. After the low the next rally up should last into January of 2027 where 8000 will be hit and surpassed. But the correction must happen first as the market will need everyone to believe we are going much much lower, and of course that means a nasty drop has to happen to get the bears fully awake.
The turn window of September 22nd to October 2nd is still likely for the top, and after that the next turn window is around October 9th for a low. Will that be the 692 FP low is the question I can't answer? Maybe it's just a shallow pullback to the 7500 area (again... if we hit it going into 9/9-9/11) for an A wave down, then a B up into mid-late October and the C down into the November election to hit the FP. Or... we hit the 692 FP with that first drop into 10/9, then the rally up into mid-late October is either a B wave bounce (which could then have a C wave drop to the 600.14 FP afterwards), or a wave 1 up for the next 5 wave series of waves into January of 2027.
If it's the wave 1 up then the wave 2 down into November 3rd/4th should be a scary one that makes a "higher low" to make all the bears short it hard as they will think it's the C wave down to the 600.14 FP but the drop stops shy of breaking the prior low (the 692 FP) to trap them all short. From there the mega squeeze starts after the election with a wave 3 up. That pullback could look like a double bottom where it retraces 99% of the wave 1 up, but doesn't break the low. It is my lean to what I think is likely to happen.
You get everyone shorting the rally up from the 692 low (again around 10/9) and when it's back down to that same area around the election the news will be pumping out tons of fear about the election results and that will suck in the most bears. After the election is over (regardless of the results) the market will squeeze the crap out of them the rest of the year.
That's all just my speculation of course, as I could be wrong and we see the C wave down to the 600.14 FP into the election, but either way there are "key time points" that we should all focus on. One is the 9/22-10/2 where the 787.13 FP should put in the top. Then the 10/9 low window, and the 11/3 (final low) window. No matter how it plays out I think the best buying opportunity will be around the low into the election. Whether or not that's a higher low (then the expected 692 low into 10/9) or a lower low (the 600.14 FP) is unknown.
But I will setup my short around the 787.13 high, down to the 692 FP, with a window of time from the 9/22-10/2 top to the 11/3 bottom. If it hit into the 10/9 low I'll do very well and will go to case and wait on the bounce into mid-late October, and then let the last drop into the election happen without me onboard. I won't care if it hits the 600.14 FP or make a higher low then the 692 FP as the price level at that date won't matter... the only thing that will is the fact that it will mark an important bottom where a massive squeeze will follow. Keep your power dry and stay patience is what I'm doing, as two incredible opportunities are just weeks away now.
Have a great weekend.
