What a wonderful day today was... if you're a bear?
I certainly enjoyed it... and I don't think it's over yet. Â I see more selling tomorrow morning, as late comer's panic and sell at the open tomorrow. Â Now whether we close down, or do a hard reversal like February the 5th, 2010... is anyone's guess?
I'm looking for a minimum target of the 100.72 spy print to be hit. Â We could continue lower on the momentum, and hit the low 900's spx area. Â I certainly believe we will hit that area, but I'm not sure if it will be tomorrow or not? Â We all know how they like to play games to shake out the bulls and bears... but my gut tells me they will hit it tomorrow and then reverse back up.
The prints aren't always a price target, sometimes they are just the direction of the next major move. Â Either way, a move down to the 1000 spx general area is likely now. Â Look at this daily chart... it looks horrible now, at least for the bulls. Â The MACD's have crossed over, and are now heading down. Â The histogram bars just put in their first bar below the zero line. Â The ADX line is rising fast, with the negative DI line on top.
The 60 minute is buried on the histogram bars, but with the negative DI line still on top, with a rising ADX line... and a MACD still pointing lower, they can put in even deeper bars before turning back up. Â This chart shows no sign of rising yet.
The 15 minute chart is rolling back down now, after becoming overbought the last couple of hours of the day. Â It should roll in the morning session, and provide us the gap down needed to get the market moving in the right direction.
Overall, the charts are looking about as bearish as I've seen in a long time. Â That daily looks really bad, while the weekly is rising up on the histogram bars, the market is still moving lower. Â Some of the charts got the death cross today (when the 50ma crosses down over the 200ma), while others will soon follow.
We should be headed down for several months now, with anymore rallies only putting in lower highs (from the April 1220 spx high). Â I may just sit out the rallies, and simply wait to go short again? Â Who knows? Â I just like being a bear better then a bull... so waiting in cash is ok with me.
That's about it, let's all keep our eye's and ear's open for any important information that might come our way (ie... fake prints, large buy orders at a certain level, etc...)
Red
thanks for the post . . . If we close up, do you expect a strong rally? if so, what is the time frame? days? weeks? As per your feb analogy, after the bottoms, we ran up relentlessly for over 2 months. I suspect that is not what you are thinking . . .
what is your short term forecast? I also think we see a reversal soon, but any reversal will likely be short lived. This kind of distribution is unreal
Yeah… this time is different as we are now below a lot of the moving averages now, where we wasn't back in February. So, I don't know how high we go back up, but I did get an intraday fake print today. It's showing 1070.50 spx.
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…
I also have one from June 23rd showing 112.41 spy…
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…
That one could be the target for opx, and the 1070.50 spx could be for the end of this week… or even tomorrow? Hard to say when, but I think we are going to rally for awhile (choppy though), before another large move down happens (assuming we gap down tomorrow, and then rally into the close?)
I think tomorrow will bottom out and close around 1050 area for monthly close.
The 200ma on the monthly chart is at 1048.39 spx, so I do expect it to close around that level tomorrow.
great thanks! I think the 112 is out there but stranger things have happened! I am quite convinced we see 1070 print late thursday and that feels like a great short entry with the jobs number on Friday . . . that is the script I am following . . . thanks again for your work!
Hi Rippy, I think CVX is priced too low.
The effect of hidden negative divergence in EUR/USD pair
http://chartsofbreakoutstocks.blogspot.com/2010…
Wow San…
The euro looks ready to dump hard in the chart. It's almost at the zero level on the histograms, and will soon cross into negative territory. Not good for the spx, and overall market if that dumps hard on the euro tomorrow.
1.2110 is the last hope for euro if that breaks surely going back to the recent lows
Do you have a target area for the spx tomorrow?
Leo daily chart it is trading below 50 day and 200 day moving average. In weekly chart below 50 week moving average. A bear market and in such a scenario if it decides to fall these support numbers just don't work.
I think June gloom has another 2 weeks, so I'll short DOW 10,000, on this micro bounce.
QQQQ hit my 43 go long target this morning, so I went long. Dow futures up 28…
EUR/USD hour chart showing euros reversal attempt
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Hidden Diveregences have been falling like flies in this market!
eggman, is that you?!? Nice swing in futures.
“US private employers added a paltry 13,000 jobs in June, compared to a revised gain of 57,000 in May, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Thursday”.
LOL… like we didn't it's getting worst not better. The futures gave up all their overnight gains on that news. Good news for the bears…
P.S. Good Morning Gang….
Still expecting a bear trap sometime today?
Not looking as likely now. We will probably NOT repeat February the 5th, but instead simply close down again.
red, I don't think we can have 8 lower closes than opens. I haven't seen it happen.
Check your email…
Thank you. YGM!
You also read Cobra's post. Here is a chart showing what happens on the 8th day (for the QQQQ) after 7 down days in a row.
http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TCqmRJ4h_EI/A…
As you can see, the market rarely stops on the 7th down day, and reverses hard.
http://www.hotoptionbabe.com/blog/30-deer-in-th…
Good Morning Anna
Great post Anna.
As much as i try to stick to rules I stray at times and it is usually costly.
reminders are always helpful.
You thought she was talking about you Jim? LOL… I know she was talking about me… I'm the worst for staying in too long. But, I'm sure we aren't the only one's who make bad choices.
She's talking about me. 🙂
LOL… let's all argue over who's the biggest dummy.
Get in line!
I know i resemble the post target.
It took it as a general reminder that may apply to many.LOL
http://www.hotoptionbabe.com/blog/30-deer-in-th…
Good Morning Anna
Hey, Red and gang, trying to get some work done so not chatting, but just wanted to wish good luck to all!
I'm looking for a lower low either today or tomorrow, targeting 1007-1020. After that, a trip to the 12 or 20 dma which should fail and put us in serious bear mode. I think NYMO has to come down and flag a low (as well as put-call ratios) before it will go up.
For fellow RUT and TZA fans, I think next drop will pay off very well because RUT was hung up on its 200dma and fell off yesterday, will catch up with SPX 6 month trend very quickly.
That's fine Rip… get your work done. We'll be here. The market doesn't go away, and I don't plan on going anywhere either. Good luck to you too.
Probably no one cares if I post or not; I declared a school day for self-discipline.
Guess what? I haven't got any. 🙂 Raking money is a LOT more amusing!
Sure we care Rip…
We're all just a bunch of amateurs trying to make an extra buck or too. I'm seldom right on my calls anyway, so you can't be any worst then I am at trading.
They are desperately trying to make the futures bounce carry w/ tech attempting a lead.
buy the bounce.
I think that was a head fake to squeeze out the bears.
There may be more of that. Staying put. I just love how they manipulate the VIX to kill options players.
Just remember, odds are the bears favor that we close lower again today. Down trends rarely break on the 7th day.
got it.
Positive divergence in S&P 500 could lead to a minor pull back
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Here is so good news for the bears. The dollar (UUP) has almost gap filled from yesterday (which should give it good support for a bounce), and the market hasn't really moved up that much.
Once the dollar fills the gap, and then rallies later on, the market should fall back down.
Watch for a rally 🙂
When Anna? What makes you think so?
you're kidding right?
Anna,
Maybe I'm blind on this one, but I just don't see the rally coming? The dollar is falling (now at gap fill), and the market is barely moving up. In fact, the market is going down with the dollar. What am I missing?
Dan read your charts kiddo!
Anna, I think it might be at the end of the day but you are almost always right!
Hey Monica I am just reading the charts 🙂 looks like maybe 11:30 we see the move up
it's actually a better case for the bears as we need to retrace 🙂
I know. Thanks Anna.
How much do you think?
I was thinking a little one to pick up the stops, maybe 1050 or so.
1052 Rip 🙂
gracias
A rally is a distinct possibility only because we can not continue the rate of descent. It will be short lived. At least that is what my penny tells me when it is flipped. LOL
Thanks Eggman 🙂
Its true!
I am the eggman!
They are the eggmen!
I am the walrus.
I'm good!
Yes, yes you are. Although I was not trying to be mysterious. Disquis locked up and I could not get to take my name so I changed it to what was playing on the “musak” in the background.
We all have a style of writting, dont we….
Wave 3 resuming??? PLEASE SAY IT IS! I don't want to fill that VIX gap.
I know, leverage kills.
The only waving I do is to say bye bye to my grandkids!
You are that old?! Well, you have been around this rodeo for a while so I guess it makes sense!
Guess you are not as good as you thought. 😉
Not at trading, that is for sure!
Yes, I'm lousy at math but I am good at figuring other things out!
… and the arch-enemy of Sonic the Hedgehog! 😉
LOL. Either you have kids or are a pup!!!
I was in HS when the original came out. AND I have a 7yo son who loves Sonic. 😉
Yeah, they need to bring him back. Mario seems to be timeless.
seems like only grandpas and the unemployed take to trading 🙂
LOL! You mean gambling cause thats what this is. Dont let anyone tell you otherwise!!
Unfortunately, I completely agree!
Somehow the house always makes money.
Big sell order came in. See if it sticks.
muchisimas gracias.
Going out on a limb here that you are like Bruce….
T'zog Ga-sint
Now you lost me! Oil getting hit.
Its Yiddish. I picked it up growing up in Michigan. Bruce Dern and his daughter are Jewish.
My ex-son in law is jewish. I am a 100% Poslish Catholic but I think that is why the conspiracy crap bothers me so much.
The book of Revelation has the Red Dragon of the Apocolypse (athiestic communism) and the Black Beast (Freemasonry). This is our time whose entire stage is a conspiracy against Catholicism.
Closed right in it. WOW. We need to push below.
So I am like a psychopath actor?!! I had never heard of him although his last name is very familiar. I don't know that yiddish term even though you guessed right that i am a hebe.
I think Tony might be right on today:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…
S&P 500 Triangle in 15 minutes chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Well, maybe we are going to 1052 today? It sure doesn't want to sell off anymore today.
Triangle breaks on the upside.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Inverse head and shoulders in S&P 500
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Bounced of Max Contain as someone once said.
Is that bear friendly or not?! Bouncing is not good.
Do not think we will know for another hour. Does your software plot VWAP? That is all it is per a previous poster. I have read much of the older posts and checked it out. Lot of good laughs.
Happy times those were!
seems to be looking good now kc.
Breaking News:
Moody's: Possible Downgrade of Spain Due to Deteriorating Growth Prospects (Story Developing)
http://www.cnbc.com
Ut Oh… Not good for the bulls. LOL.
If this is a bounce day its got pucker factor
LOL
WMT chart. WMT near 48 today.
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/w…
IWM, has support at 60.5 this week. My short term charts favor up, though.
Not sure what you are looking at for short term. I see next level at $58 range
Hi Jim,
I'll keep the $58 in mind, that's for certain.
Break down below 1040 again. W00t!
Next stop 950 on spx folks.
Unless the bulls can bring it back up to the line in the sand. Those bulls are wily creatures! 😉 Or at least the PPT are….
Apple inc trading close to an important trend line.
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
S&P 500 Trading range breaks on the down side
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
Not looking bullish.
Anyone else having issues with TOS? It's been such a big POS lately. Damn Ameritrade
What is TOS?
Monica,
Look at the Orange Line. I was running an errand. When we talked see how it bounced?
Does not always work this way but it did today!
http://www.screencast.com/users/has001u/folders…
Yes thank you!
See, like i told you….you are just as good as anyone else; reference this mornings prediction of a rally. Nobody knows the future.
I will say it again, if you are right 30% of the time, you are a Hall of Famer!
P.S. Red you nailed it, so we were oversold. Now we are more oversold!!
Well, I got the sell off right, but I did get them out of order. I thought we would sell off first and rally into the close, but we rallied first, and then sold off.
Ol' well… at least we sold off.
That is right!!! You are getting much better at this game, if my opinion is worth anything. Just because we are down X days in a row does not make it more or less likely that we will not be down x+1.
I used to follow Jim Rodgers before he became famous, in the days when he made Soros a $$$. He used PandF charts coupled with a firm understanding of the fundamentals.
So where has the PPT been during this drop. Are they out of money or juicing up the printing presses?
We are at that point now, that we need a positive closing day to reset the oversold multiple days down issue. One big short squeeze, then more selling. It could be coming very soon now… maybe tomorrow or Friday?
Totally agree, Red. I think the neckline break will be a fake and we will rally to 1070 or so.
If you look over old charts, there are a lot of times that H&S patterns don't play out. I think this one will after we have a mini-rally.
I covered a bit today, want to study charts to decide whether to load up on next intraday bounce (to cover at a better price tomorrow) or to stay part cash for a two day rally.
The jobs data is easy for the government to fake, so if they want a relief rally, then those numbers will be good… and a rally into the 4th of July weekend will happen.
Agree, I think the re-shorting starts back again, DOW near 10,000
Death cross is nearby for S&P 500
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
You mean Friday, tomorrow is Thursday. We still trade on this Friday, so thats' the end of the week.
Friday
CVX, option market was closing out puts and switching to calls today.
Who is CVX?
CVX is my losing trade….LOSER!!! Trying to find reasons to hold on to this Sinking Oil tanker! The Captain's drunk…Looks like the Regulations debate, is taking its toll on CVX too!
Oh… ok. I thought is was some group of traders or something that was going long, while everyone else is going short. One more move down I believe, and then a rally.
Jim posted earlier, IWM 58…At this point, anything is possible. I'm keeping all of my shorts.
Red, did you see Atilla's new post : http://www.xtrenders.com/2010/06/50-200-dma-cro…
Exactly what I'm thinking too Newbear… Remember, I got an intraday fake print on Monday of 1070.50 spx… which is where I expect this Friday to close at (assuming the government manipulates the jobs data as usually).
Then I have a daily fake print of 112.41 spy… which could be the next high before another drop? Hard too say, but a rally is near… I can feel it now. I'm out of all shorts now, and will wait to reload again later.
A lot of people I know who don't trade the markets are getting bearish so that's a sign.
We are real close to a bottom now. That 100.72 spy print at minimum should be hit… more likely though, is that we pierce 1000 spx, and go to 990-995 area.
That would have every bear in the world going short. Then a big squeeze back up to that 1070.50 spx fake print for starters. Then possibly the other fake print of 112.41 spy? Not sure on that one but a squeeze into opx could go that high?
Hard to say, but at least the 1070.50 print should be hit… after another move down first of course.
Red,
The first of the month is usually an up day. When it's not…
LOOK out BELOW!!!!!
I agree, but that doesn't mean we couldn't sell off hard in the morning, and rally back into the close tomorrow… just like February the 5th did.