Today is the big day. The FOMC meeting at 2pm EST will decide the next big 100+ point move, which I think will be up. Sure there could be some wild swings up and down but by the close I expect the market to close up nicely. This is all setting up for a super nice short of 5-10% if we hit my FET (Fibonacci Extension Target) of 5334 on the ES, which it will likely piece it of course.

My FET of 5334 is based on the low from October of 2022 up to the high in July of 2023, which is a super important one because it's the largest one over the past 2 years. This means it should produce a pullback like the one that came after the July 2023 high, which was 11% and took 90 days to complete. Does that mean this coming drop will be last the same about of time? I don't know but the common theme is to flip between patterns, which I'd call that that one a slow choppy decline, meaning this one should do the opposite and be a fast drop with very few big bounces.

This is where it could drop to after we top...

Now I don't know if that will be accurate or not, as I've said previously about Yahoo FP's not be reliable because they show dozens of them and you don't know what is real and what is not. But this one is odd, and it only lasted about 2 or 3 days before it was removed, so it's possibly a real one? As you can see on the chart it's around the low of February the 1st, which on the ES is 4872, and on the SPX that would be 50-60 points lower.

Now if we top at my FET of 5334, then a drop to that FP would be just under 9%, and that's right in line with the 11% back in 2023. They won't ever match exactly but something nice and close would be perfect in my opinion. That's the bigger picture. Let's see if we rally to my upside target this Friday (possibly Monday). If so, I'll be shorting it.

P.S. I posted this yesterday...

Have a blessed day.

The market had a nice move up yesterday from the low on Friday to make what was most likely a Tiny Wave 1 inside Small Wave 5 up. Then there was a pullback in the second half of the day, which was probably a Tiny Wave 2 down. Today will be hard to figure as the market is waiting on the FOMC meeting tomorrow.

I see two possible paths, which are that this Tiny Wave 2 subdivides into an ABC whereas the A leg was the first pullback from the 5240 high on the ES yesterday. From that low we could rally up for a B wave today (early?) and pullback for the C wave into the close. That leaves Tiny Wave 3 up to start tomorrow, which we should subdivide into 5 smaller waves too. I'd guess that the wave 1 up (Extra Tiny Wave) would happen early in the day Wednesday and then the wave 2 would be a small pullback into the meeting.

Then a strong wave 3 up (Extra Tiny Wave) follows, which is inside Tiny Wave 3, inside Small Wave 5. That should be the most powerful wave of course, and it should be from something said by the Fed that the market takes a positive.  Basically a lot of chop until after the FOMC where the big squeeze should happen and top into this Friday, which ideally would be at the FET of 5334... but again, if it's close and it happens on Friday, I'll be looking for a short.

The other thing that could happen is that we just do a one wave move down for Tiny Wave 2, which will still setup Wednesday to start Tiny Wave 3 up, and the first subwave (of 5) should happen in the morning on Wednesday and then the subwave 2 in front of the meeting.

Doesn't matter which way it plays out as the end result should be a strong rally up after the meeting tomorrow. I lean toward just one wave down for Tiny Wave 2, meaning it doesn't subdivide into an ABC, but I really am not concerned about which way it unfolds as everything tells me we are close to a strong breakout rally into this Friday (possibly Monday) to hit the upside target and setup the market for a nice, much needed correction of 5-10%.

Have a blessed day.

The market finished an ABC down last week for a Small Wave 4 last week most likely and we should be in Small Wave 5 up this week. It will likely unfold in 5 sub-waves with the 1 up happening today, and likely the 2 down tomorrow... which could be very small. Then the 3 up is likely to happen after the FOMC on Wednesday, and again the 4 should be small.

Then lastly the 5 up should complete Small Wave 5 up by this Friday, or possibly next Monday. My FET (Fibonacci Extension Target) is 5334 on the ES, which ideally gets hit... but "time" and "pattern" is super important too. Meaning that if we get close to that zone this Friday I'll be looking for a short.

I've taken 5 longs over the past month and no shorts, but if this plays out I will be taking my first short in a long time. I'm not going into too much more as I'm still working on the bugs of the site. It's completely a 100% clean now of all malware. I started off in a new server with nothing on it, and I'm using a new wordpress theme.

I cleaned up all the old links too, but I'm still waiting on my hosting company to update the SSL certificate, so currently the HTTPS is not working. Only the HTTP showing the website. So a browser that allows that must be used to see the site. I tried it on google chrome but it won't allow it. But Firefox allows it, and so does the Yandex browser. I've not tries others, but hopefully this is all fixed by my hosting company in the next few days.

Have a blessed day.

Yesterday first pulled back and then went up into the close to end slightly red but we have made another new higher high then the 5196 gap up high at the open Monday. It's really hard to get a good feel right now on where the market is going as there's nothing clear in the technicals.

Then of course we have the CPI this morning before the open and that's going to cause some wild swings both ways. I just sat on my hands yesterday and will again look for some better setup to get long. I could miss it, but I don't want to chase as that's how you lose money, so I'll be looking for one more pullback before we run up to the FET of 5334, which as I said yesterday, could happen after the CPI... and that would mean we should top there and drop into the March 22nd turn date to put in a low.

I prefer a pullback for Small Wave 4 but who knows if that wave count is right or not? The smaller degree ones are the toughest to figure out, but if we get a pullback then it should be S4, and might end next week before the FOMC?

It's possible that we hit my closer FET at 5225 from the CPI and then reverse back down afterwards... I mean after the wild swings subside of course. We did pullback some yesterday with a low of 5157 on the ES, but I just didn't feel comfortable taking a long there with the CPI the next day. I'm just patiently waiting to get a decent pullback to go long for that last rally up, or for that final FET of 5334 to get hit without me long where I'll short it. Nothing more to add, let's just see what happens and look for another setup.

On last thing, that low yesterday of 5157 came just shy of filling the gap on the ES from the roll from the March contract to the June, as on Friday it close at 5132 at the 4:59pm EST last tick.  Not that it's required to close that gap I'd certain be interested in a long if we dropped that low to fill it.  I'd still have to look at the technicals but it would be of big interest to me, that's for sure.

Have a blessed day.

Yesterday first pulled back and then went up into the close to end slightly red but we have made another new higher high then the 5196 gap up high at the open Monday. It's really hard to get a good feel right now on where the market is going as there's nothing clear in the technicals. Then of course we have the CPI this morning before the open and that's going to cause some wild swings both ways.

I just sat on my hands yesterday and will again look for some better setup to get long. I could miss it, but I don't want to chase as that's how you lose money, so I'll be looking for one more pullback before we run up to the FET of 5334, which as I said yesterday, could happen after the CPI... which would mean we should top there and drop into the March 22nd turn date to put in a low. I prefer a pullback for Small Wave 4 but who knows if that wave count is right or not?

The smaller degree ones are the toughest to figure out, but if we get a pullback then it should be S4, and might end next week before the FOMC? It's possible that we hit my closer FET at 5225 from the CPI and then reverse back down afterwards... I mean after the wild swings subside of course. We did pullback some yesterday with a low of 5157 on the ES, but I just didn't feel comfortable taking a long there with the CPI the next day.

I'm just patiently waiting to get a decent pullback to go long for that last rally up, or for that final FET of 5334 to get hit without me long where I'll short it. Nothing more to add, let's just see what happens and look for another setup.

Have a blessed day.

We got the rally up yesterday that I was looking for, but it make another new all time high, so that killed my Tiny Wave count, but the overall bigger picture is still intact. I've not taken a single short in over a month now, just longs on pullbacks... and it works. That won't continue forever but as of right now all the pullbacks are getting bought up.

That should continue into the turn date on March 22nd where hopefully we top for Large Wave 3 (or C?), and then a good correction should happen. Anywhere from 5-10% is my best guess, and that''s only if it's a Large Wave 3 top... meaning the drop will be a Large Wave 4, thereby leaving Large Wave 5 up into this summer.

If the top turns out to be a Large Wave C then the bear market will start and we'll go down the rest of the year. I do not know yet which one will play out but I lean toward Large Wave 3 because of the "lack of" a negative divergence on the weekly chart. We'll cross that road when we get there.

Moving on, below is the new adjusted wave count...

As you can see the overall picture is still the same, we are just not pulling back as much as on my other wave count. It's always a "best guess" on the smaller waves, but what it's suggesting in a small pullback in the futures, which already happened right before the close yesterday, and that is a wave 4 on my chart. I didn't label it as an "Extra Tiny Wave 4" (didn't have room to type all that inside the small box), but that's what it would be basically as it's the next lower degree below Tiny Waves.

Afterwards, I'd look for an early rally today for "Extra Tiny Wave 5", which might just be a double top, who knows? But then I'd lean toward a surprise late Friday pullback for Tiny Wave 4 down. We've had so many "Friday Rallies" that this would be a good surprise to everyone that has spotted this pattern I think.

And again, I'm guessing here on these moves, but I don't trade them. I have only been looking at deeper pullbacks to get long at, which I've been focused on watching the RSI get oversold on the 2hr chart and near oversold on the 6hr chart. So I won't be doing anything until I see a deeper pullback to once again get at least the 2hr chart oversold.

If my crazy wave count plays out then we'll go up Monday for Tiny Wave 5 instead of the typical weakness that we have been having for many weeks now. Lastly we'd see a nice pullback Tuesday after the CPI for Small Wave 4 down. These "events" are just periods where those waves can play out, but possibly it's something else next week that is blamed for the move? I just keep adjusting as we go forward in time and keep looking for longs until we get to the next important turn date.

Have a great weekend.

The market continued higher yesterday and then pulled back some around midday and went mostly sideways into close. We did not make a new all time high (which I didn't think we would) and are likely still in a Tiny Wave B bounce, inside Small Wave 4, which the B wave is subdividing too it seems.

I don't think we have finished it as the technicals suggest we need more time to get the short term charts overbought again. But that doesn't mean it will be an a straight line of course. Most likely this is Tiny Wave B and it's subdividing, which suggest it might not top until tomorrow, or Monday?

Today could be choppy again with some more "pulling back" first, but I don't think it will take out the low from Tuesday. Possibly it's a B wave inside the B wave? If so, then there's a C wave up inside Tiny Wave B still yet to come.

As you can see in the 2hr chart above this could do a lot of chop into next week, but we could bottom into the CPI? If this plays out then I'd look for the rest of next week to carve out a Tiny Wave's 1 and 2... which leaves 3, 4 and 5 to finish all the waves up to complete Large Wave 3 (or C) the week after that. Ideally we top into the March 22nd turn date, but who knows if that happens or not.

I can only say that so far this has been tracking pretty good. The waves within waves aren't easy to predict, nor the price levels, but it's still been "on track" for the most part.

Have a blessed day.

WOW! What a surprise... a down day. Haven't seen that in quite awhile it seems. I wasn't expecting it to be that deep but it is what it is I guess. It still looks like an A wave down inside Small Wave 4 right now, and I think we bottomed yesterday near the close as we rallied back up nicely into the afterhours session.

I think we will now spend the rest of the week, and probably into the CPI next Tuesday, carving out the B wave bounce. I wasn't expecting the A down to end that fast but it certain looks like it might have done so... but there's this new FP (2 of them possibly?) that might be saying that we will go back down today to retest the low from yesterday to put in a double bottom. Here's that FP on the QQQ...

I'm thinking that we revisit the lower (possible) FP at 434.28 first and then rally up to the 443.69 FP later. But that's just a guess as we could also go up to the higher FP first and then the lower one isn't hit until next week after the CPI? It's hard too know for sure but I'll just be keeping them in mind as "targets" for when we are heading in that direction. The more logical move is to hit the downside today and then go back up.

Of course on the ES it will trade a little differently then the QQQ but the direction should match, so whenever the upside FP on the QQQ is hit and pieced I'd be looking at the ES as possibly topping for the B wave bounce. As for the C wave down... that's going to be hard to figure out.

I do think it will unfold in 5 waves, so if by some crazy squeeze we hit the upside FP on the QQQ today then we could start the C down after that and then I'd looking for it to bottom into the CPI next week instead of top. There are a lot of variations to how this could play out but so far odds favor yesterdays drop (the A wave) as being finished. We'll see.

Have a blessed day.

We may have topped yesterday for Tiny Wave 5 up with that late day squeeze up to 5157 as we sold off quickly after the close. I said yesterday that I was looking for the 5225 level per my FET (Fibonacci Extension Target), which I thought would be from Tiny Wave 5 up, but it appears finished to me now.

If so, then Small Wave 3 up ended too and now we should spend all week (possibly) drifting lower for Small Wave 4... which might be in an ABC pattern? Small Wave 2 down was a choppy mess that started from the 5123 high on 2/23 and ended at the 5060 low on 2/29, so that's 6 calendar days in total, and that pattern could be repeated in "time" but probably not in pattern.

They tend to alternative one or the other, and since we have lots of time left before reaching the next turn date on March 22nd I think the market will drag out this Small Wave 4 all week to burn that time, which leaves two weeks for Small Wave 5 up to play out. Therefore I lean toward an ABC down this time and another week or so in time to finish Small Wave 4... and it just might bottom right into the CPI next Tuesday, either before it or after it's released?

If the market can pullback to about 5100 into next week then that should be plenty of time to reset the short term overbought charts and allow another week plus rally to the 5334.39 upside level for my FET from the July 2023 high from the October 2022 low. That target should be hit (and pierced) before any good pullback (5-10%?) can happen, and ideally that's right into the turn date as well. It's really hard too forecast the day to day moves, but a week full of nothing but chop would be ideal I think.

And then they can used the CPI number rally the market up. Lastly, the futures will roll into the next quarters contract next Thursday into Friday, and it's estimated that the spread will be almost 60 point between it and the SPX cash, so keep that in mind.

Have a blessed day.

We got the rally last Friday to the 5146 level from my short term Fibonacci Extension Target, which I'm going to abbreviate to just FET going forward. Now looking back in time from my post I did on the 161.8% extension it's common to see exactly what we saw last week. What I mean is that there was a run up to "almost hit the FET", then a small pullback, and final a hit and pierce of the FET.

We saw that happen last week with the first high of 5123, which was the one that fell shy, then the pullback, and finally the rally up to pierce the FET of 5146 on Friday. Now that was a short term FET, and since that pattern has completed now we should pullback some early this week before the next rally up to the next FET of 5190, which is close to another FET at 5225, so somewhere in that zone would be the next high before another small pullback or pause happens.

The levels that I calculated those price points from, (chart above), for the FET of 5190, was using the 4866 low on 1/31/24 to the 5066 high on 2/12/24, which projects a 161.8% extension high of 5190. The other FET of 5225 was calculated from the 2/21/24 low of 4959 to the recent high of 5123 on 2/23/24.

Those two are close to each other so somewhere in that range would be the next upside zone where the rally expected next week should end at and pullback or pause again. Meaning we should "pause" Monday and/or Tuesday of this week (possible pullback to 5110 or less?) and then start the next move up for the two FET's at 5190-5225 the rest of the week.

That should take us into the week of OPEX (next week), which is where the pullback for Small Wave 4 should happen.  That would leave Small Wave 5 up into the following week, and interestingly we have an FOMC meeting on Wednesday, March 20th... right in front of the turn date on March 22nd. Very nice timing for sure.

My best guess would again be to see a "pause" on Monday and Tuesday that week (18th/19th), and then a last squeeze back up into Friday the 22nd to reach the biggest FET I have, which was calculated from the 3502 in October of 2022 and the 4634 high on 7/27/23, which projects a 161.8% level of 5334. That... in my opinion is "The Big ONE", and should be the point where we see a nice pullback of 300-500 points from.

I'm thinking it will complete a Large Wave C (or 3?), which should produce a 5-10% pullback (if L3) or "the top" if LC... which would mean a much, much larger drop. I don't think it will be that way because I don't see any negative divergence yet on the weekly chart, but there's really no way to know until it happens. Here's my new adjusted wave count...

The big thing I've changed is that I removed the Tiny Waves 1-5 and just marked them as Small Waves. It suggests the 5066 high on 2/12/24 ended Small Wave 5 up, and Medium Wave 3 up. Then the pullback afterwards completed Medium Wave 4, and now we are in Medium Wave 5 up, which will have five small waves inside it.

My best guess is that we started Small Wave 3 up inside Medium Wave 5 last Friday, and that it will end in the 5190-5225 zone. Then a small pullback for Small Wave 4 the first couple of days next week, and the final Small Wave 5 up into Friday, March 22nd. That should complete Medium Wave 5, inside Large Wave C (or 3?) which is where the best sell should come from.  Here's a close up of the waves...

I think that on Friday we started Small Wave 3 up inside Medium Wave 5, which probably will end by this Friday.  The small intraday pullback on Thursday was likely a Tiny Wave 2, with Tiny Wave 3 up afterwards.  Any pullback today should be Tiny Wave 4, then Tiny Wave 5 should reach the 5190-5225 zone.

It's at that point where we could see a similar choppy sideways pullback the first 2-4 days of next week for Small Wave 4 that could look like Small Wave 2 did from it's 5123 start on 2/23 to the 5060 low on 2/29... only it will be shorter in time I think.  It should be the move into the FOMC next Wednesday the 20th.  Then something Powell says can be blamed for the final rally up into Friday toward FET of 5334.39 to complete all the waves.

The drop afterwards could be a large one.  I don't know how much but could be something similar to the July top (LA or L1) down to the October low (LB or L2).  That drop was from 4634.50 to 4122.25, which was a 11% pullback.  If we reach 5334.39 then 11% would be 590 points down roughly.  I doubt if it repeats like that but it's something to remember.  I lean toward 300-500 points at most.  We'll see.

Have a blessed day.

We got an early pop yesterday after the PCE data came out, which really wasn't important but the market was setup for a move up and it just used that data as a catalyst to rally. But it failed to hold and dropped back to negative midday after that 20 point pop, and then it went back up into the close to around the same zone.

The market is close to a bottom as that pop and retrace was back test of the falling channel the market has been in since the high. This tells me that today or Monday we should see another multi-day rally of 100+ points. Possibly it starts today, it's hard too know for sure? We got close to the 5050 zone yesterday with a hit of 5060, which might be "close enough", suggesting any pullback today might be just a higher low.

I posted the chart above in the chatroom yesterday, which is a fake print on the QQQ, and low and behold it was hit and pierce around the open before a reversal back down midday, so it was a "signal" that it would be a point of interest where the market would hit and turn from.

Over the many years of tracking FP's I've noticed that the intraday one's don't have any edge for them hitting and reversing back down for days or weeks. They can hit and pause, and the go further in the same direction, or hit and reverse for only an intraday move like yesterday... and then continue in the same direction. The only thing I use them for is to exit positions I'm in that are based on the technicals.

Moving on... another strong rally is close and should go into next week. We should hit my 5146 target, possibly pause there and pullback some. It will be a point to exit longs and wait for a better entry from another move down I think. But I'll have to wait to see how the technicals are when we get there, as it might reach the next target of 5190.

Now as far as wave count goes, if we bottomed yesterday, then that should completed Small Wave 4, which means we are in Small Wave 5 up now. Wave fives can go any amount. They can truncate short, extend to be longer then the wave three, match the wave one... pretty much any amount.

My feeling on it are that we have a target of 5146 with my Fibonacci Extension System, which is the shorter and closer one. Then there's another higher one at 5190, so one of those zone would be a likely top for the coming rally that I'm calling Small Wave 5 right now. If that count is correct then it will complete Medium Wave 3, and from there we should see a decent pullback of 3%+ I'd think.

We have Jay Powell speaking next Wednesday, so possibly we rally up into that date and he causes some small panic for that Medium Wave 4 pullback? But it shouldn't start the bigger pullback I think as it should be followed by Medium Wave 5 up into late March, like "possibly" the 22nd? If that happens we'll complete either a Large Wave C or 5, and with the C the market will have topped and we'll start the bear market.

But I lean toward the 5 because there's no negative divergence on the weekly chart yet, therefore a 5-10% pullback for Large Wave 4 would be more likely. Then a final rally for Large Wave 5 into late summer. Below is a chart I posted in the chatroom yesterday showing that divergences.

It's never a guarantee that we MUST have a negative divergence but usually we have one. Something that could cause that not to happen would be some kind of event (another false flag?), which then we'd get another drop like the COVID crash in 2020. I have no way of knowing if that's going to happen or not, so I will just place my short with the mindset that we will only get a 5-10% pullback, and if it turns out to be more then I'll adapt. We'll cross that road when we get there. For now let's just see if we get the rally up to 5146 or 5190 the next few days.

Have a great weekend.

Have a blessed day.

More chop yesterday with a drift lower. It's getting close to the 5050 support zone now, and the RSI is working its' way down closer to oversold. It doesn't have to reach oversold of course as in strong up trends it doesn't get buried below the 30 level, so a bottom is very close now.

It could happen today or it could have been yesterday, but after that I do expect a rally up next week with the target of 5146 for the short term and 5190-5225 ultimately. I'll have to see where the technicals are once the first lower upside target is met, as that might be all we get on the coming rally before another pullback like the current one happens.

It's hard to say until we get there first, and how long it takes to get there is important to as "time" for the strong bullish period the first week of March. If there is enough time left then we could reach the higher level, but if it takes all of next week to reach the lower target then time will run out and we should pullback again the week of OPEX prior to those higher levels being reached.

And while I want to see the March 22nd turn date produce a high that's not known at this point as it could be a bottom? Right now though it does look possible to play out, which will either be the end of Medium Wave 3 (meaning Medium Wave 4 be the pullback, which might just be 3-5%) or the Large Wave C (or 3?), which would should result in a larger pullback, like 5-9% possibly.

Have a blessed day.

Pretty much as expected yesterday... a little lower throughout the day and then up into the close.  That bounce was likely a B wave, which clearly ended as we are back down again this morning.  So I have to think we are now in the C wave down of Small Wave 4 and will finish soon, probably in a day or so.

Then we should start Small Wave 5 up to complete Medium Wave 3, which might end by the end of next week? If so, I'd look for Medium Wave 4 to play out during the week of OPEX, which should be followed by Medium Wave 5 up into the turn date on March 22nd.  This is the ideal path but we all know the market rarely plays out like you want it, so I'll just adjust as we go forward.

As for today, I think the upside is limited as we appear to be in a C wave as I said, but it should end today or tomorrow and then we start back up.  My target is 5190-5225 to complete Medium Wave 3.

Have a blessed day.

We started the pullback yesterday, which was mostly into the close. I do not know how low it will go as it could be finished now, but the 5050 zone is an important support that would be ideal for a long. However, with yesterday and Sunday being a "turn window" I decided to take a chance and just re buy my previous longs at a cheaper price.

We might go down to that 5050 zone, but if it happens I'll just ride it out as I still think we will rally up into the next turn date on March 22nd. For me, I'm just trying to get another good entry on the longs, which I did, but nailing the exact best spot is impossible. Not much else to add here as the overall trend is still up and that's how I'm trading it.

Have a blessed day.

Last Friday played out pretty much as expected, which was a follow through to the upside in the morning and fade back to flat by the close. I said last week that if this happened we would have completed Tiny Wave 1 up inside Small Wave 3, inside Medium Wave 3.  It's always a "best guess" on the smaller degree waves, so I'm going to re-adjust them a little because of how much time is left before the next major turn date on March 22nd (which obviously isn't very much).

I think that early this week we should pullback to around 5050 on the ES.  And since this entire week is normally a bearish period according to the Seasonality Chart, we could see a full week of range-bound moves to shake out both bulls and bears before we start the next trend move up.

Many subdividing waves might be the plan inside these Tiny Waves while the short term overbought charts reset. So even if we put in a low of say 5050 on Monday it could be revisited later in the week to make a higher low of a few points, which would be (again) to shake out bulls and lure in bears. It's the first week of March that is bullish, so that should be where the market starts another squeeze higher I think. Here's the wave count with the new adjustments...

My short term upside target is around 5225, which is based off my 161.8% system, whereas I'm assuming we'll pullback to 5050 this week to allow me to get a projection from the 4959 low on 2/21 up to the 5123 high on 2/23 that would make "the A leg" part of the ABC pattern, which I covered on my weekend update post about the 161.8% extension last weekend.

These "legs" are not my Elliottwave count, but I had to give them some kind of name, so I'm calling them A, B, and C legs to make and complete a pattern. Here's that chart below...

Again, that's not a wave count.  It's just a short term target (probably the first week of March) that once hit will complete a 161.8% pattern.  This pattern can repeat over and over until the end of the multi-month or year rally ends.  When that happens we'll get a big selloff of course, that flips us from a bull market to a bear market... meaning the 200 SMA is lost.

That's not happened yet, so currently I will continue to look for this pattern to give higher highs.  The "shot across the bow" will be when we get 5-9% pullback, like all of those in the past that I covered on that Fibonacci Extension post, as over the past 20 years pullbacks of that percentage usually produced just one more higher high before the market flipped from the bull market rally to a bear market correction.

In conclusion I'm looking for this week to have a choppy downward bias with 5050 as support.  And next week I'm expecting another rally up toward my 5225 target.

Have a blessed day.

The market continued to squeeze higher yesterday putting in a 100+ point move and making a new all time high. Looking back at different wave counts I've done I think the one that we are most likely on right now is the Extended Alternative Bullish Wave Count - February 18th 2024.

On that chart I have Medium Wave 1 topping on 12/29 at 4841, then M2 bottoming on 1/5 at 4702, which puts us inside a Medium Wave 3 up from that low. Small Wave 1 up ended on 2/12 at the 5066 high, and that's where an ABC pullback happened into yesterdays low of 4959. That means we are inside Small Wave 3 up right now. Below is that chart that I did on February 18th.

If I'm right on that count then we will likely subdivide into 5 Tiny Waves inside Small Wave 3 up, which we probably completed Tiny Wave 1 up at yesterdays high. Meaning that we should pullback small (20-40 points?) today and into Monday for Tiny Wave 2, which would be perfect for the turn date on the 25th/26th as then it would indeed put in a low (higher low, but a low never the less).

This would setup the rest of next week for Tiny Wave 3 up, inside Small Wave 3 up, inside Medium Wave 3 up, inside Large Wave C up... to continue the rally higher into March 22nd, the next important turn date. Below is a close up of that chart...

As you can see on that chart I'm not looking for a lot for Tiny Wave 2 into next Monday. From there (if this all plays out as it's always a "best guess") we should grind higher in a Tiny Wave 3 up, then 4 down and 5 up to complete Small Wave 3 up. A pullback for Tiny Wave 4 should follow and then more slightly higher high for Small Wave 5, which will complete Medium Wave 3 up.

This should look a lot like all the prior patterns going back in time that I covered on my "Weekend Update – A Study Of The 161.8 Fibonacci Extension" post, which commonly shows a high for the 161.8% getting "almost" hit, then a pullback, and a final higher high that pierces through it. That will be the S3 high, S4 pullback and Small Wave 5 pierce. Then a good pullback will follow.

I did a projection for the target high using that 161.8% method and it points to 5309, which was created from the 3502 low to the 4619 high. That points to 5309, but I also decide to do another one from the 4122 low (MC of LB) to the 4841 high (S5 of M1), and that projects 5286... so somewhere in that zone is where the top for M3 should appear.

Moving on... after the close we got a FP of 505.76 on the SPY, which I think will be the pullback low for Tiny Wave 2 today, or Monday.

Have a great weekend.

(Post wrote last night)

Yesterday the market drifted lower all day and bypassed the FOMC minutes as it didn't have any real affect, but the earnings from Nvidia after hours causes a nice move back up like I was expecting.

Now we have to see how high this rally goes into this Friday as if we take out that 5059 and 5066 high then the lows are likely in and we will only pullback into the Sunday/Monday turn window (25th/26th) for a higher low. From there we grind higher into the March 22nd turn date to finally top out (hopefully?) before a nice 3-9% pullback. The alternative would be that if we fall to make a higher high by this Friday then I'd lean toward one more drop into this Sunday/Monday for another lower low then last weeks low from the CPI number.

I really don't favor that happening but it could. It would have to go lower then yesterday and after the squeeze up from Nvidia yesterday after the close I really don't put that has happening.

What I think will happen is that we grind higher and pullback small so that the coming turn date gets bypassed... meaning it doesn't make a new high and is simply a down day, which qualifies for it being a "turn" as after that the rest of next week should be up, and I think it continues that grind all the way into the next turn date on March 22nd. The best thing the bulls can do is to "build a base" for several days... meaning "No Breakout" until after this coming Sunday/Monday passes by. Time will tell.

Have a blessed day.

From the February 12th high of 5066 the market has been pulling back in what appears to be an ABC move with the 5059 high on the 16th being the B part and the current pullback being the C wave. I don't know if it's finished or not as most C waves subdivide in 5 waves, so the move up from the close yesterday might be just a wave 2 inside that C down... or it ended at low on Tuesday.

The line in the sand I think is the current all time high of 5066 and the 5059 lower high, as if the market rallies up over them today, tomorrow or Friday then obviously the ABC down finished and another strong leg up in the market will be in play. So the 5059 level must hold to keep the bears in control as a lower high below that amount should then be a wave 2 inside the C wave down.

The short term charts are oversold and support a rally today/tomorrow but the daily is still closer to overbought, even with yesterdays pullback, (but the trend is still up). We have  news events like the FOMC minutes from last month coming out today at 2pm, and then NVDA earnings after the close today, that's 2 things that could move the market both directions.

Based on the technicals I'd think that the FOMC would cause a rally up into the close where the 5059 lower high will be the decision level. If it fails to take out that level then the earnings from NVDA after the close could cause the market to gap over it tomorrow, or to reverse back down on Thursday, which could be a wave 3 inside a C wave?

That move might be the move that ends Sunday in the futures or Monday morning to complete all 5 waves in the C wave of the ABC down. But if the 5066 high is taken out then the squeeze up much higher should top us on Friday and then a small pullback in the 25th/26th would be likely I'd think to still make a low in that turn window.

However, if by some crazy move up into a top on Friday, that then goes slightly higher into Sunday/Monday then that "expected" low for the turn window will become a high instead, and sell for a much deeper pullback. I don't think that will happen but it's certainly possible. I lean toward the 5 waves down in the C wave of the ABC down, which should bottom in the turn window, which is my logical thoughts of course.  Oddly my gut tells me we are going to make a new high.

I'm still long and riding it out as I'm still focused on the top into March 22nd, which could be 5200-5300 I think.  Everything this week is done to shakeout bulls and bears alike, so I have to just stand my ground and let the bigger picture play out, which is still up I think.

Have a blessed day.

I did a long update over the weekend and posted it Sunday afternoon, so I'll keep this one short and just refer you to read that long update for the bigger picture. For the short term I lean toward an early rally this week up near the all time high, but I think it fails to take it out and instead makes a lower higher.

Odds favor that happening today and then some choppy action the rest of this week that drifts lower, with the bottom being put in next Monday morning (or Sunday night, the 25th). From there it's up to around 5307, which I think will happen into the March 22nd turn date. After that a nice pullback of some decent amount. How much I don't know but I'd think it could be that 7-10% pullback that everyone is looking for, but it might be less... hard to say right now. I covered all the past periods where the pattern appeared and we had different percentages on each one.

It was anywhere from 3% to 9% going back 20 years, so I'd think somewhere in the middle would be the zone. If it's 5% for example then from 5300 we'd pullback to about 5035, but I'd think they might want to pierce through it a little to make everyone think the high is in... which it might be, but studying the past it wasn't the last high the majority of the time. But I'm getting ahead of myself, so let's just focus on the short term. That is up early this week (today) to try and make another higher high, and then down into the 25th/26th.

Have a blessed day.