The FOMC was a total snooze-fest yesterday as the market yawned and barely moved at all. This morning looks about the same with the futures basically flat again. I don't have much to say as when the market is going sideways it's gearing up for the next big move. With Christmas around the corner now I'm sure a few more days of sideways chop will look very bullish on the charts. After all, isn't the Santa rally supposed to start sometime in the second half of December?

So if this does happen I suspect the bears will be put to sleep and the bulls will be piling on long from the bull flag it should make as well as the expected time of the year rally. And if everyone is expecting a move up into the end of the year I'm going to expect the opposite... a flush out C wave down with the A down the 2 day move on the 2nd and 3rd of this month. More time is needed I think, but by early to the middle of next week I'll be looking for a short (again, if this chop-fest continues). For today, I got nothing and I expect nothing. Have a great one.

The futures are up some this morning, which is looks like chop the day before any FOMC meeting. I don't think there will be too much downside as this smells of a bear squeeze tomorrow as the Fed try to look like a hero again. My best guess that the market is consolidating today and tomorrow we go up again and make another new all time high. Remember that the FP on IWM has not yet been hit, and the NYA is really trying hard to take out its prior all time high from January of 2018. Therefore I don't think the bulls are done yet. I'll keep this post short but I'll be looking for a long into the FOMC as a rally up is very likely in my opinion. Have a great day.

The futures are down a hair this Monday morning but not really worth noting. The big event this week is the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday where traders will probably be looking for some kind of clues from the FED about the economy. Considering how this move up from last Tuesday still looks like some kind of B wave to me I tend to think it will be a "sell the news" meeting.

I haven't done a fact check study but just in the last 10 years I'd answer with 80% if someone ask me how many times does the FOMC meeting result in a positive close on the market versus negative. So if the market doesn't sell off in front of the meeting then I'm thinking this time around will fall into the 20% stat. There's still that FP on IWM lingering that about a point higher then the high on Friday, but the last time it got close it rolled over without hitting it.

It might do the same again to tease and trick everyone that see's the FP like I do. It will be hit at some point but "when" is something I can't answer. For now I'll just be looking to catch the pullback this week that retests the low of last week. I'm not sure yet if we make a lower low or higher low as if all the bears see it, and label it a C wave down (and I'm sure they do), then SkyNet isn't likely to let them profit from it. Meaning it would make a higher low so bears stay short and get squeezed on the way back up, as we know most bears will look to exit at the double bottom or pierce of it. Anyway, that's all I have for today. Have a great one and God Bless.

The futures are up again this morning as what appears to be a large B wave up in still in play. The "possible" FP from afterhours on Monday of 314.20 on the SPY might indeed be the target for this rally. However, there was another "possible" FP on the downside from afterhours yesterday. Most of these "possible" FP's are at levels that were the open or close from a previous day, which in many cases they turn out to be late fills.

This one is at 309.47 from around 4:45 pm yesterday. I do not see it hit today as it's pretty clear that the bears are likely trapped short and SkyNet isn't ready to let them out just yet. I suspect we are headed to the upside FP first and then maybe we drop to the lower one? Today I believe will be a "hold the line" day for the bulls as the market is short term overbought so they might not have much left in them on the upside without first taking a breather or rest.

If so, that leaves tomorrow for that move up to 314.20 (again, if it's real?). I don't think the selling is done though but it might just be over with for this week and then another drop can start next week. They don't make it easy on the bears as they commonly just drop it out of the blue with no warning so everyone misses the short. Once the bears have been woke up though they start squeezing them a little each day until they give up again and capitulate. That's what I see for the rest of this week. Have a wonderful day and may God Bless you always.

Yesterday did close to what I was expecting as it put in an early low and grinded up slowly the rest of the day. This kind of action looks and acts more like a wave 4 up with a 5 down yet to come (to complete the C wave of an ABC down) versus a true bottom.

So even though the market rallied up more in the afterhours/premarket session I'm cautious on how far it can go. It's right near those two premarket "possible" FP's from yesterday, so that's the first target I think.

But if it gets past there then I'd look for that higher FP from afterhours on Monday to be hit. I covered that in yesterdays post. Naturally I'm not expecting to see it hit today, but you can never underestimate the bulls. If too many "late to the party" bears short this open then a short squeeze could get us up to that higher FP by the close I guess? I'm not counting on it though.

However, if by some strange miracle it does happen (which would be around 28,000 on the DOW and the 3140 area on the SPX) I'd likely short the close. Why? Because it should squeeze out all the bears and have everyone flip back to bulls again... right at the wrong time. I'm still looking for a deeper pullback before this move down ends, so I don't think it's "off to the races" with more new all time highs coming from the first pullback low.

This should be an ABC move down, and we just in the large A part now, which subdivided into a medium ABC down I believe. It's the medium C that is the puzzle as it might have ended yesterday at the morning lows, don't know? But if so then we are in the large B up now, and it very well could go all the way up to the 3140 area if a powerful enough squeeze gets going.

After that I'd look for the large C down to hit a low of around 3040 to complete the ABC down. The more I look at this mornings current rally back up the less likely I think it's a small wave 4 up of medium C down, and the more I'm leaning toward large B up as in play right now. It could also subdivide but I get the feeling that it will be short lived... subdivided or not!

Meaning that if we simply hold this current move up all day and go sideways it will make a bull flag and will probably lure in some bears to short it. Then that last push higher for the squeeze could happen tomorrow to end the large B up by the close Thursday or possible at the open on Friday. I'm leaning toward this scenario currently. That's all I have for now. Have a great and blessed day.

Finally, the market breaks down. Of course I missed it. But that's exactly how SkyNet works. It makes sure the majority of traders miss the move and I fell into that majority. Naturally I was hoping for a bounce this morning so I could short it. But again, it's not bouncing and is going lower without me. Very frustrating for sure.

It's at a support level now from a rising teal green trendline, and it now made an ABC down if you count the afterhours sideways to slightly up move as the B wave. So, where does this C down end at I wonder? The next support below is the horizontal light blue trendline that's pointing to around 3020 right now. Will it drop straight there without a bounce is the question I wish I had an answer for, but I don't. Usually C waves are pretty scary with little to no decent bounces.

There's one afterhours "possible" FP on the SPY and two "possible" FP's in the premarket, and they all three are at higher levels. If the highest one gets hit (314.20) then of course the C wave down would be finished at todays low but if the other two are the target (311.49 and 311.64) then I'd just call that a wave 2 bounce inside the C wave down and expect lower prices still to come before this entire ABC down is finished.

If I were SkyNet and planned to take it lower I wouldn't bounce hardly any at all today and tomorrow I'd go up and hit one of the two premarket FP's at the open and then drop it hard again the rest of the day. But if I planned to make this the low for the first ABC down I'd need to run up to that higher FP over the next few days.

To fool the most sheep I'd stay weak all day long today and near the last hour I'd run it up to one of the two premarket FP's so the sheep will see it and short the bounce into tomorrow. Then I'd squeeze them tomorrow and run it up to the higher afterhours FP where they would throw in the towel and go long again. This might take until this Friday to reach, don't know? Then from there I'd start another ABC pattern down into late next week for that 3020 target, or wherever.

In both scenario's where I'm playing SkyNet most of today will be weak and holding near the low. One scenario supports this weakness into the close, then a gap up tomorrow to one of the two premarket FP's, and a rollover again. The other scenario suggests that rally up happens during the last few hours of today so the bears can short it and get trapped going into tomorrow as the market continues higher.

The third scenario would just be more down all day as the C wave heads for the 3020 area or wherever? SkyNet will just have to see how many people short this open I guess and decide if there's enough to squeeze or if too many bulls buy it and more down is needed to make them capitulate first. I have no clue which will play out but those are the clues I'll be watching for today to decide what's the next move. Good luck and may God bless you (I need it as trading this snake is very hard... LOL).

Welcome to December. Last night the futures were almost 10 points but now they are around flat. But they are still holding the rising trendline in yellow, so there's no damage done on the bull side yet. I'm not sure what to think about today as while we all know a move down is coming there's just nothing in the charts currently to tell us "when" the move will start. It's bullish until it's not... basically. The only clue left is the FP on IWM, which is still a little over 2 points higher and has not been hit yet.

But will it get hit before the correction starts or later near the end of the year after that pullback and move back up for a higher high... that's the real question? Today I'm going to focus on the DOW as it's currently holding that even number level of 28,000 and I get the feeling that if it goes below (and closes) then we'll be doing the correction first and the FP on IWM won't be hit until the next rally back up at the end of December.

History doesn't really repeat like you maybe have heard, but it does rhyme from time to time. So I'm not expecting another large drop into Christmas like last year, but pullback is looking more and more likely to happen beforehand, and that will likely wake up the bears and get them shorting it way too much, which will limit the move down as well. That's all I have for now. Have a great day.

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and your belly didn't explode from overeating yesterday. I know I gained 2-3 pound but the food was soooo good! Anyway, today is a half day I believe, closing early around 1pm EST if I'm not mistaken. I don't expect much action today so no long update. Wednesday gave us a rally into the close but afterhours around 6pm EST there was a sharp 10 point drop, and since then it's been going mostly sideways with some of the move down recaptured.

For the bears it suggests that there will not likely be a good short over the weekend, and I"m happy with that as I don't like the time decay. I say that because I don't expect much more then sideways chop again today, and until that upside FP is hit on IWM I'm not interested in any short. The only thing that might change my mind on it is if the DOW were to close back under 28,000 anytime in the next few days.

It would then suggest to me that the FP on IWM won't be hit until the end of the year and pullback is coming in early December first and the that final squeeze up into the FP to top it all out and close out 2019 on a very bullish note. I'm 50/50 on whether or not we just go on up early next week and hit the FP and then rollover, or we pullback first and then back up to hit it in late December. I'll let the market tell me what it wants to do as I'm fine with either. The clue again will be the strength (or weakness) in the DOW.

That even number level of 28,000 is very important. So I'll be watching and waiting to see what the market gives us. But again, I don't see any short setups for the close today. So have a great weekend and be ever thankful you are so blessed by Jesus to be alive and well and have all that you have. You could be living in Africa and have no home, no job, no food and no hope. Gambling in the stock market (even when you lose) is still a blessing as you have extra money to do so, and most of the world doesn't. May God continue to bless us all.

Not much to say today. It should be a slow one since it's the day before Thanksgiving. I'm more interested in how it closes... red or green. And then the more important day is Friday as I'd love to see another nice move up to close green and tag that FP on IWM. I'd then be interested in a short as I fully expect there to be a pullback next week before some year end Christmas rally takes us back up higher. We are really close though to reaching the FP on IWM as well as Oscar Carboni's DOW targets.

Not so close though on his Dow Transports levels but maybe that will be hit at the end of December, who knows? Nothing in the stock market, or the world for that matter, works logically. We have fake news for sure, but we also have a fake stock market and fake space program... and many, many other fake things out there. So don't try to make sense of it as that's impossible. I just try to listen to the crowd and do the opposite.

Right now the crowd is still bearish I believe but leaning bullish. So another rip higher is needed and I hope to see it happen this Friday. That's all for this update. Have a Happy Thanksgiving and never forget that not only is satan real (we see it all the time now with their hand signs and hollywood ritual events), so is God and Jesus. May he bless you and your family this fun eating time tomorrow.

Well, we finally saw the breakout on IWM yesterday as it ripped up much higher on a percentage basis compared to the rest of the market. Looks like it's on its way now to the FP from back in July. Once hit I suspect that will be the high for the year, which should put in the DOW in the 28,500=29,000 area I'd guess and the SPX could be over 3200 or so.

I doubt if we see much more upside today, at least compared to yesterday. From here a slow grind up is more likely then another face ripper. I'd hope we would have fell back to the "possible" FP on the SPY of 310.31 yesterday but the market opened up higher and kept on climbing. Last night around 9pm EST we saw the futures spike up higher and that has put in the overnight highs on all the markets so far, as it was a short lived move.

On the ES that level was 3145 and we are currently below that by around 10 points as I write this morning update. I don't expect much today but some sideways action to more up as light volume will be expect today, and especially tomorrow with the markets closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday. Many "turns" in market happen around holidays, and the IWM is close to its FP from July.

So after its hit, which could be this week, I do think we'll see a nice pullback put in and a possible for for the rest of the year. But as for today I just don't see much action as the big squeeze happened yesterday. Today is just a "hold the line" day for the bulls with trapped bears below. So I'll end this update early as well as there's nothing much to do but wait on the hit of the upside FP on IWM before even thinking about a short. Have a blessed day.

P.S. Looks like Oscar is going to be correct again on his year end targets...

The futures are up some this morning after gaping over a falling green trendline this weekend. They have been riding a yellow rising trendling since about November 4th or so, which is pointing to around 3100 today. The green falling trendline will likely meet with the rising yellow trendline soon, like possibly today before the close? There was a "possible" FP afterhours on the SPY of 310.31 around 4:49 pm, which is about 3103 on the ES/SPX.

That would be my downside target today if the market does pullback, which is hard to say for sure with this being a holiday week. If it does drop some today that FP area is around the level the two trendlines would meet, so there's some decent odds of it happening today. After that I'd expect more choppy and churning until after Thanksgiving. That's all for today. Let's see what happens. Good Luck.

Yesterday just shortly before the close my website went down. I sent in a support ticket to my hosting company but as of right now (Tuesday morning) it's still not back up. So I'm getting on the chat with then now, and if I get to post this morning update then you'll know they got the website back up.  Usually they fix it pretty quickly so I shouldn't worry I guess.

Not much to add anyway as the market continues to climb the wall of worry again today. If it can continue right into the last trading day in front of Thanksgivings, without having any large pullbacks and big volume days, then odds will shift quite a bit in favor of the bears.

Again, I would not be surprised to see a drop start right after the holiday, which part of it should be on Friday November 29th and continue into Monday December 2nd. Then a bounce from the buy the dippers I guess the rest of that week. It's too early to try and figure out the day to day moves beyond the first drop, which is hard enough to predict by itself.

This is just my "best guess" based on several things I follow. If you are a bear then you should root for the market holding up and not collapsing until after Thanksgiving and if this happens the way I've described then we should have conformation of a bear market starting there afterwards.

Have a blessed day.

The futures are up small this morning as the churn and grind higher continues. There's no sell signals in sight right now but we could get one later this week. However, with the Thanksgiving holiday starting next week I really not expecting any big drops in front it, but afterwards I could... meaning it wouldn't surprise me to see a surprise drop happen next Friday or even Monday, December 2nd.

This week though doesn't look like much is going to happen. If it does then it will certainly be a surprise as there's nothing in the charts that I can see that can be used to predict it in advance. The move down that I (and many others) was looking for (to around 3000 SPX) isn't on the table anymore. I guess they decided to top it out early in late November or early December instead of doing that pullback and then back up into the last trading day of the year like the normal pattern.

The upside targets are still the same, around 28,500-29,000 on the DOW, but most importantly the FP on IWM. If that's hit the last trading day before Thanksgiving then it couldn't be timed out any more perfect in my opinion... at least as far as "Big Surprises" happening. I'm going to stick with that for now and just play the waiting game. No more shorts for me, or longs... just take a bear nap until it finally topped out.

If the market doesn't make it there (I'd be really shocked) and sets up a sell signal prior to then, of course I'd short it. But I don't see it happening right now. I expect some more extremely light volume days with some closing green and some closing red, but nothing big either way. Have a wonderful day, and my God always be with you.

I'll keep today's update short gang as there's not much to add. The market continues to grind higher a little each day. Futures are up this morning but not as much as last night. I don't see anything bearish today but I do suspect this will all change by late next week. I covered my thoughts yesterday about how the market makers will manipulate the market to push the VIX down into expiration, which is next Wednesday for this current November contract.

I don't know if they will do a small wave down on Monday or Tuesday and then back up into Wednesday to setup the market after that for a C wave (or wave 3) down. Maybe they do, or maybe they don't? I'm not interested in those small waves anyway. I'm just looking to catch the move down after Wednesday, which it might start that day or Thursday/Friday... not sure?

It's the Thanksgiving holiday kick off after next Friday so I wouldn't be surprised if they don't drop it the week of Thanksgiving when a lot of traders will be away from trading. We've seen this before where down moves are timed around holidays to catch the most people off guard, so another one wouldn't be a shocker to me. So I'll be watching for a good shorting entry between next Wednesday and Friday and hopefully we get a confirmed signal as well. Have a wonderful weekend and may God bless you.

Not looking good for any pullback this week. There was a breakdown yesterday intraday but it was short lived.  It's pretty obvious the market is being held up. The rise wedge has been broken but there's not been any big move down yet.  I still think it's coming. Odds for a pullback are much stronger then odds for another face ripper rally of 100 points plus.

But WHY are they holding it up?  We discussed in the chatroom yesterday how it's common for the market makers to manipulate the market up (or sideways) into the monthly options expiration on the VIX... which I mistakenly thought was yesterday since tomorrow is the third Friday and therefore the monthly options expiration for the SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, etc.  But I was wrong as yesterday was only the second Wednesday of the month and the VIX contract expires on the third Wednesday, which is next week.

So while I wish I could tell you that the market is fairly traded and you can learn technical analysis, elliottwave, fibonacci levels, trendlines, moving averages, macd's, stochastic's, cycles and every other method known out there, which would then allow you to make money honestly... but it's NOT allowed. It's a rigged game that while all those things help with forecasting the next move in the market they only work some of the time. If the market was fairly traded then we'd already dropped for that pullback.

In fact, I'd go so far to say that if the monthly VIX contract expired yesterday that we'd be down today and starting that correction. But it's not until next Wednesday so the market makers will keep this market up so the VIX stays low into expiration. It's a common theme each month where they sell naked calls on the VIX to collect the premium. All they have to do is to drive it down into options expiration and hold it there so all those calls expire worthless and they get to keep all the money.

I need to write a post-it note and stick it on my computer so I remember this as it's a repeated process many months of the year but I sometimes forget about it. Anyway, for today I (again) don't see much happening. The market is grinding sideways, being up small or down small every day this week. At best we might get a move down to around 3070 by the close on Friday, but I wouldn't count on much more then that... if we get it at all?

I picked that level based on the support formed over the past several days around that zone. Resistance overhead is around that 3100 area, but really it's more about rising trendlines from channels... which the market is currently bumping into.  Either way, I don't expect much more on the upside today or tomorrow, even-though I still see much higher prices... just not before a nice pullback first.

Then into next week there shouldn't be any big moves until after Wednesday as that's when the new VIX contract will start and market makers will want to repeat the process of driving it up during its first week of existence to sell calls at higher prices again. Then they will drive it down into December 18th, which is the third Wednesday and expiration of that month. Rinse and repeat it seems. Have a great day.