Yesterdays grind higher came late in the day after first fading back lower. The move up came extremely close to hitting a new all time high on the ES Futures but stopped shy at around 3024.50, which is even lower then last weeks high of 3025.75, and both are still below the all time high of 3029.50. What's interesting is that the SPY might or might not have made a new all time high?
I show a high of 302.63 yesterday with the all time high of 302.68, but in a video I watched yesterday by another trader he claimed it did indeed make a new all time high. Not sure what to make of that but possibly the issue has to do with the SPY going ex-dividend this morning, which means it will be a little over a dollar lower then normal as the dividend payout was a little over a dollar. This adjust happens every 3 months. It's still weird though as yesterday, before this dividend adjustment, I still did not see any new all time on my chart.
Anyway, moving on.... the DOW is still a ways off from an new all time on it, so nothing note there. So is the QQQ and IWM, which basically tells me that it's not important whether the SPY hit a new high or not as all the other indexes have not. Ok, next topic... the plan of action. As you can see the pattern of the FOMC day closing green worked this time, and the pattern of "them" holding the market sideways until the week is over is also working. But all the various option classes will officially expire today and end Quad Witching.
Next week will be where the rubber meets the road as the bulls will not have the same protection (manipulation), so it should make the market more freely traded with technical s working again. The bulls will need to take out the current all time highs to get a big squeeze going, but charts are still very overbought on many time frames, so even if they manage to do that a pullback will still be needed at the minimum.
But if they fail to make a new all time high (across the board, not just one index), the downside risk is large. The FP I have on the QQQ points to a retest of the June 3rd lows. However, I do not know the future, so telling you for 100% that we are going to drop would be a lie... so I won't. But odds certainly favor a move down starting some time next week. Last year around this time (September 21st, 2018) the market topped on Quad Witching, dropped about 3 days of the following week and rallied back up into October 3rd for the last lower high before the waterfall drop into Christmas started.
It would be odds to see a repeat of the exact same pattern, but the dates the move down starts could be similar. The difference would happen when (if?) we retest the June 3rd, 2019 lows, as the next move up would likely take us up to a new all time high into the end of the year and a lot of people might compare that low to the October 29th, 2018 low and try to short it on every bounce looking for that final drop into Christmas (that started on December 3rd, 2018 ) to be next. That's where they would get tricked as after the low is hit (late October 2019 likely) the move up should continue with only small pullbacks along the way. This is my current thought going forward into the rest of the year. Have a wonderful weekend.
The FOMC is now over and what I wild day it was after the minutes were released with wild swings up and down several times until a sharp drop went down and stayed down for a little while before ripping back up into the close. It wasn't your typical meeting, that's for sure. What does it all mean? It's a crack in the dam the bulls built I think. It says things aren't as good as many think.
It doesn't mean we are ready to rollover and start a nice correction yet, but it does tell me that the upside is limited here. I do not know if we will make a new all time high or not but I'll sit with the pattern from past FOMC days where a turn happens within 2-4 days afterwards. The Fed don't want to be the blame for any lasting drop after a meeting so they hold up the market for several days until some other news event can take the blame. The VIX contracts expired yesterday, and we still have other index contracts and options yet to go, but they will all be done by the close on Friday.
Next week will be free to start a correction and I do still think we'll see it. But right now I don't know what day will be the start of that down move. I should be able to figure it out as we get closer but for now we are still likely to chop around until this week ends. Bulls need to step on it if they want a new all time high as "time" is their enemy. My best guess is that if they don't make it by Monday or Tuesday of next week then it's not happening.
For today I don't see much. A grind higher or sideways to keep the bears trapped that shorted the bottom yesterday, and of course make all the puts expire worthless into tomorrow. That's about all I have to add as most everything I've already said in prior morning updates this week still apply. Have a wonderful day and may God Bless you in life.
Again, nothing new to add this morning. Could just repeat yesterday as the market is still waiting on the Fed, which is around 2pm EST today. The rate cut is already baked in, so there's not a lot left for them to do. But what is said concerning the future meetings and/or future rate cuts is what the market is really looking for... and that will determine the next direction. More then likely the Fed will say a whole lot of nothing negative, nothing positive kinda of talk.
The market will probably react with a muted response. Meaning NO big panic sell off, or euphoria rally. This has been the pattern now for Fed meeting for the last several years. The days of wild swings seem to have ended back when QE1, QE2, Cash for Clunkers, QE3, and all the other crazy stimulus programs ended. Will it return in the future? Who knows? But for now I don't see any big reaction in the market after the meeting. Overall I'm neutral to bullish for today and several days afterwards.
Over the last few years the market generally floats slightly up or sideways for several days after an FOMC meeting, and then turns down. So while it could come as early as Friday (meaning I'd short the close on Thursday), I currently think they will hold this in place over the weekend and start the drop sometime next week.
I'm open to whatever the market gives me but I've just noticed a pattern where the "turn down" is pushed out away from the FOMC meeting so again, the Feds don't get blamed. A big sell is coming, I know that... as Market Makers will want to ram up the VIX to sell naked calls again to collect that premium. And doing it in a normally bearish month (September or October) is the logical thing to do. I'm just waiting patiently for that chance to short this pig and it's looking good for the end of this week (lower odds) or early next week (higher odds). Until then, have a blessed day.
Looks like the futures are basically flat this morning. Not much to add today that hasn't already been said. The market is waiting on the FOMC meeting tomorrow so I wouldn't expect much action today either. The passport code for today was a dud of course... bummer. But everything said about the VIX expiration and the others to make it a Quad Witching week still applies. There's no way to know the date for sure on when they will drop the market but within a week after the VIX contract expires is the likely time frame.
So it could be this Thursday or Friday as I mentioned or pushed out into next week. It's going to boil down to whether or not there are enough bulls long now and bears asleep. There could (should) be some kind of false breakout move up first if they plan on dropping it hard afterwards. Will this move make a new all time high or not is the question I can't answer. If it does then I'd expect any move down to be push out into next week.
But if it doesn't then we should top out this Thursday or Friday and start the move down the next day. The FOMC is the big mover... news wise, and after it's over with things should get back to normal (if there is such a thing... LOL). So the Fed's will have 1-2 days after the meeting to juice the market up to a new all time high in my opinion. Failure to do so tells me we'll be going down hard with a retest of the June lows likely the target. There's still the FP on the QQQ that wasn't yet hit. Is coming within 7 cents "close enough"? Only time will tell.
If we get a nice spike up after the FOMC then I'll be watching closely for that FP to be hit. If all the other indexes make a new all time high at the same time then I'll be hesitant to short, but if under a new all time, then odds will be stronger for that being the top. The market is tricky as we all know, so we have to adapt to it and change our decisions based on the current information at hand. I was really rooting for the passport code to work, but it didn't... so I move on. Now I'm rooting for the VIX roll (that's what it's called when you move from one 3 month contract into another) to work.
Just remember that the market makers will have 3 full months on the new VIX contract to run it up where they call sell naked calls for the highest premium, so it doesn't have to start the very first day of that new contract. Meaning.... if we do get a blow off top that squeezes the last bear out we shouldn't give up hope or panic but just go with the flow as it should be short lived. I say that because of the greed of those that control the market. With this month and October being months that are known for corrections they won't likely let it pass without spiking that VIX higher to collect those high premiums before dropping it just as hard with a strong year end rally back up in November and December. The "timing" of this move is of course the hard part. I remain patient...
The ES futures were down as much as 20 points Sunday night but have recovered a lot of it now this premarket Monday morning. However, it's a common thing for the market to revisit the lows made in any premarket session during normal trading hours, so my guess is that we'll see that happen here today as well. It's looking like it's going to spend the early part of today in bounce mode and the late part rolling over to do that retest, but it doesn't matter to me how it does it as I'll just wait for it and look to exit my shorts when hit.
This is typical action for an FOMC week as traders seem to rally up for weeks in front of a meeting but then exit those longs on the Monday or Tuesday before the Wednesday announcement. Just fear of the unknown basically, as they "buy the rumor", "exit right before the fact", and will later "sell the news". With this week also being a Quad Witching week where 4 different asset classes all expire between Wednesday and Friday it's the perfect time for a top of some kind in the market.
Since we are at a double top zone as well on most of the indexes it just adds more reason for a correction to start after this week is over week and all those options expire. The market makers love to sell the VIX via naked call options, so it's to their advantage to drive the market down so the VIX will rally up higher and be worth more. Since the futures contract on the VIX runs 3 months just like the ES futures does, this coming Thursday will start a new 3 month contract.
So we should be watch for a 2-3 week correction the market shortly after this new contract starts. Then they will sell those VIX calls and rally the market back up into the end of the year so the VIX tanks again and they keep the premium sold. I'm looking for a sell signal to trigger by the close this Thursday or Friday. Then I'll look for an 18-20 day move down as that's the typical time period.
This week though I'm still thinking there will be some kind of rally back up after the Fed to hit the FP on the QQQ's as it only got within 7 cents of hitting it and all the other FP's were hit. It's the last one and hopefully it times out with the short expected on Thursday or Friday. I have a downside FP on the QQQ too, which basically is just a little above the June 3rd low. Anyway, back to the present. Again, I think we'll retest the premarket lows today and tomorrow we should go up some, but more then likely it will be a "pause" day as traders wait on the FOMC meeting. May God Bless us all this important week.
Yesterday was a very frustrating day for the bears as the turn back down did not happen, and so far it's not looking likely for today either with the premarket futures up small this morning. The ECB meeting had no affect on the markets here, so next up is the FOMC meeting next week. We've had 2 out of 3 FP's hit currently but the last one is being stubborn and getting close but not officially hitting. The SPY and IWM FP's are fulfilled but the QQQ got within 7 cents and stopped and reversed.
This is very unusual as most of the time when a FP is hit there is a "turn" in the market pretty quickly. Rarely does do they hit and continue on in the same direction. But since the SPY and IWM are barely over their FP's and are not exploding higher I would call them more of just "pausing" until the QQQ hits its FP, and then they should all roll over together. I suspect they are holding off on hitting the QQQ FP as they want to keep the market up into the coming FOMC meeting next week. Plus there's Quad Witching next week as well.
So there will be 4 different asset classes expiring all at once. This means the stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. Market Makers commonly sell naked calls on the VIX and/or naked puts on the various indexes, so it is important for them to manipulate the market so those options expire worthless so they get to keep the money.
If the market was to tank between now and next Wednesday the VIX could explode upwards and they would be at risk of losing an unlimited amount. So they will make sure that the VIX stays low until those options expire worthless. Afterwards, when a next contract starts, it's wide open and ripe for a drop in the market. I suspect this is the plan going into next Wednesday for the VIX and Friday for all the other expiration's.
So, it's not looking good for the bears catching a big short here anytime soon. If the pullback any today or Monday it will likely be just a tease to lure in more shorts as fuel to squeeze them up so they can make new all time highs. This assumes they can't do that today, which is really unknown at this point. They've hit 3025.75 on the ES Futures and the current all time high is 3029.50 at the end of July. The DOW Futures has only hit 27,312 in the premarket session and it's prior high was 27,397... so still a ways to go yet.
Could they hit today? Sure, but odds are they will pullback some to lure in some bears for fuel to squeeze later. If the pullback isn't today then it should be Monday. Then back up into the FOMC I'd guess to at least squeak out a slightly "higher high" for a new all time high. I'm NOT expecting some huge run up to 3100, 3150, etc... but instead (at best) a little higher to trick the sheep before a nice move down happens.
We'll get to that 28,500-29,000 level on the DOW by the end of the year, but not likely on this first pierce through it (if it does it by next week, and before the QQQ's hit their FP). My focus now will be on the QQQ's since it's the only one left that still has a FP to hit, so if sideways to slightly down into next Wednesday and then a fast pop high to fulfill that FP that's where I'll look to get short at as the VIX contracts will have expired and it's likely then that the market will drop on Thursday or Friday. Have a great weekend everyone.
Today is the 10th Anniversary of Red Dragon Leo. I did my first post September 12th, 2009 after finally figuring out how to install and use WordPress. I was a green horn back then as I had no idea the market was so rigged. I thought it would go up 50% of the time and down 50% of the time. After all, in any game of chance that would be the odds over time. Little did I know about the elite pedophile satanist banksters rigged it to go up probably 80% of the time and down 20% or so.
But I learned over time that it was rigged that way and stopped being such a huge bear as your odds of winning are much lower due to the manipulation. I found my first fake print on January 11th, 2010 and didn't know what it was at the time. I only knew the market never traded to that level that day, so I called it a fake one, and ever since then every one I see I still continue to call them fake prints (FP for short).
Ten years lately I'm now the guy known for tracking these FP's and the "go to" site for them... something I never planned, but it just worked out that way. I've become a much better trader over the years and find myself in a cash position at lot more of the time then in any trade. Most of the time there's just no high odds setup that can be taken into the next day or two, and I like to swing trade as day trading just seems to have too many false or tricky turns for my tastes.
Ok, back to the present. Yesterday right before the close IWM hit its FP of 156.88, so I thought we'd see the SPY hit its FP of 300.88 as well. But then I got the feeling they were going to hit it afterhours, so I decided to short IWM as it had ran up the most and looked more likely to rollover today. I also bought some VIX calls in case the ECB disappointed this morning. As you know the Federal Reserve Board here in America is the same basically as the European Central Bank in Europe.
We have our Fed meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday and they had theirs yesterday and today. The news from theirs came out already here before the open and I guess they did whatever the market wanted as there's no big gap down in the premarket. There was a squeeze up that started around 7pm EST last night which I'm sure took out the last bear. But this morning that rally has faded some. Why? Because of something I learned from Danny Riley of Mr. TopStep some years back. When some future event is known about that can move the market the traders will either buy it up in front of the event or sell it down in fear of it.
This time around the ECB (and our coming FOMC next week) were the two events known about, and traders expected them both to lower interest rates. So they all went out and bought the market up in advance. It's called "Buy the Rumor", "Sell the News"... so if the event give the market what it expected then traders will cash out at the top or at least "Not Buy Anymore" as they are already long. If the event disappoints then traders will panic and sell. But in either case the "buying" has already been done in front of the event.
So a top and drop or top and sideways pattern is likely after the event. Since the ECB doesn't appear to have disappointed the market I'd expect the selling to start today slowly as traders don't see any reason to be long anymore. It's hard to say how much as some traders might hold on until the Fed meeting next week thinking that maybe they will say something even more positive to get another rally going higher, but between now and then I do expect the market to start pulling back some.
How much is unknown but I will point out that the ES Futures only hit 3020.00 and that all time high was 3029.50 on July 26th, 2019. The SPY did the same thing with a lower high of 302.20 and the all time high was 302.23... so that's a double top anyway you look at it. Rarely does the market get through a double top on the first hit, so a pullback of some degree is coming.
I have a FP on the QQQ from the same date of August 20th, 2019 where both the FP's on the IWM and SPY appeared. It's for 194.78 and the futures last night hit a high of 194.19 on the QQQ, so possibly that will be the last one needed and once it gets hit today (hopefully) that will fulfill all the FP's and allow the market to start a move down. You'll know if it rallies up to 194.78 and the other indexes don't follow that it's just the fulfillment of that FP that the market is doing and not some additional squeeze up to a new all time high. Have a great day and God Bless.
As I told to everyone in the free chatroom yesterday the Lucy3 sell was killed yesterday morning with the move down. For the sell to have setup at the close the market would have needed to have very little weakness all day and grind up higher. It did close green but the move down was too much and killed that setup.
But we still have the upside FP on the SPY to look for as a turning point. If it get hit today or tomorrow I'll be interested in a short. True, it won't be a huge one that drops to 2800 or even 2700, but it will be a nice short never the less. That Lucy3 would have been a Grand Slam Home-run, but they don't come along that often so we are back to looking for just base hits, like singles and sometimes doubles.
If we hit the FP by the close tomorrow (looks tired this morning from the move up yesterday) then it should be good for a move back down to a "possible" FP of 294.04 SPY, which is basically a backtest of the 2940 prior resistance zone on the SPX... and I'd call that a nice double if it happens all in one day, like on Friday. A drop from 300.84 to 294.04 is over 60 SPX points, so it's a nice short anyway you look at it. No guarantees though on it dropping that far, but it is a logic area to retest. If it only drops 20-30 points then we get a nice single... still worth playing in my opinion.
It's pretty clear to me that those that control the market do not want it to take out the 200 day simple moving average on the daily chart as they held it up every time the SPX got near it over the past month or two, which was down in the low 2800 SPX area. Today it's at 2813.21 and the only recent time we touched it was at the June 3rd, 2019 low.
This market is very likely going to put in new all time highs and run up to 28,500-29,000 on the DOW before the year ends (Oscar Carboni's targets), but trying to guess the "when" part (on the new all time highs) isn't easy. For now I'll just focus on the day to day moves and not worry about the next game.
I'm looking for singles and doubles and my guess at this point is that we'll hit the upside FP on Thursday and that a nice short will setup when it does. Today looks choppy again, but a move down to make a higher low into the close today would be a nice B wave of some degree with the A up starting at the low yesterday. Then maybe we get the C up tomorrow for the hit and pierce of the FP? That's what I'm looking for... good luck.
Here we are gang, one day before a very important ECB meeting and the anniversary of the 911 False Flag 18 years ago. Even though the European Central Bank doesn't set polices for America the Fed's do watch what they do and are influenced by them. So any disappointment with the ECB will spook traders as they will assume the Fed's will do the same at the FOMC meeting coming up on the 18th this month.
Doing this meeting when we were still stuck in that sideways range between the overhead resistance around 2940 SPX and the support around 2800 would have left everyone guessing on which direction would go as good news would have squeezed the bears and took out 2940 on a rally and bad news would have taken out 2800 on the downside. But here we are above 2940 after squeezing the bears last week on a move up out of that 1-2 month trading range.
One has to use logic here and question on how many bears are left to squeeze now if good news comes out of the ECB meeting? Will it be enough to reach new all time highs? Personally I doubt it. I think the bulls blew it by squeezing the bears too early. Any good news out the ECB now will likely have a very muted response on the upside I believe. But bad news will be a disaster as then that Large C Wave down that everyone is still looking for could indeed show up. And it should take out the lower support in the 2800's this time around I think.
Today we need the bulls to continue on up and close green like they are all happy and sure of themselves about tomorrow. This will put the bears to sleep of course and that's exactly what is needed for tomorrow should the ECB disappoint as I believe they will. This couldn't be any better scripted if it was a movie. We have the FOMC on the 18th and that's just 5 trading days for the bears to tank this market going into that meeting.
Of course if this happens the Fed's won't disappoint and will instead say something super positive to save the market. So the bottom should be in on the 17th I believe, which just happens to be a passport code from the Jason Bourne movie. Well, well... isn't that interesting? I've seen this movie before, like putting a bottom on August 24th, 2015 from a Flash Crash... only then the passport code was from the movie called Lucy.
I'm sure it's all just a coincidence and the stock market is random, not rigged years in advance like I'm suggesting. 🙂 Keep this to yourself and don't share it please as I'd hate for it to stop working from too many sheep finding out. Root for a rally today, and have a blessed day.
The weekend is gone and it's time to get back to trading... or trying to at least. This morning the futures are up a little but nothing huge. As you all know I'm looking for an upside FP on the SPY to be hit (and pierced) to mark the top of this rally. That doesn't mean it'going to rollover and crash of course, but it should provide at least a decent pullback, if not more?
We'd have to close green today and tomorrow for the "more" part, and that's on the SPX and DOW. With the charts so overbought on the short term that's asking a lot as one of the two days is likely to close red I believe. It would kill a large sell setup but a smaller one could still happen at some point this week. It would be rare to see the market NOT back-test the prior resistance around 2940 on the SPX, before marching higher to a new all time high again.
Unfortunately I don't think we'll get lucky enough to trigger a very big sell that I've been hoping for, but we'll just take it day by day I guess and play what the market gives us. For right now I'm focused on the upside FP as it could be hit today since it's only a little over a point or so higher on the SPY right now.
That could easily be hit today, but again, I wouldn't be surprised if the market doesn't pullback small today and close red to kill that big sell setting up for tomorrow. I don't have my hopes up for it, as it would be super rare to see it trigger tomorrow. Bulls just need to back down today and either drop enough intraday to kill it, or just close red today... or tomorrow. Anyway, that's what I'm looking at for today. I'll keep everyone updated via the free chatroom of course. Have a blessed day.
The bulls did a great job of holding the market up all day yesterday to keep the bears trapped. This morning they are continuing that plan and even made a slightly higher high a little bit ago. The jobs data produced a small pullback but it's about erased now. All looks good for the bulls to continue the march higher into next week. At this point the "possible" FP of 300.84 on the SPY is looking more and more real, and could be the upside target for early next week. That would be a little over 3000 on the SPX/ES... like about 3008.40 I'd guess. This is really going to frustrate the bears, but that's exactly what it's supposed to do.
Once the even number targets of 27,000 DOW and 3000 SPX are hit and pierced through you can bet that everyone will become super bullish looking for a new all time high. The bears will flip to long and become bulls. The bulls will be bigger bulls. The northbound train will be trying to climb the steep mountain with an overload of bulls onboard. That's just when the engine blows and the train will start falling back down hard and fast with no brakes. This is what I suspect will happen.
If you are a bear then patience is the key here. Start rooting for this grind higher to continue into about next Tuesday to hit that FP on the SPY. If we get that and don't see any large pullback between now and the close on Tuesday then my bet is that all the bears will be put to sleep or will have flipped to bulls, and that's about the time I'll be shorting with both feet and hands as I expect a cliff dive move to start the very next day. Have a great weekend.
Yesterday the big sell setup was canceled as the market rallied too much throughout the day. It needed to have weakness all day long and instead it rallied up to retest the 2940 resistance for the 6th attempt at breaking through it. In the chatroom I posted charts and comments that clearly suggested there was NO Short at the close, yet I foolishly did NOT listen to my own advice and instead took a small wildcard put position.
Needless to say that was stupid as the future ripped higher after-hour and got well past that resistance zone. Now they are stalling some this morning after hitting as high as 2971.75, but still well above that prior area of resistance. If I was going to take any wildcard position it should have been long, not short. Odds favored the bulls getting through the zone this go around. But I went against my own analysis and did that stupid wildcard put trade, so now I'll pay the price. Thank goodness it was a small one.
My punishment for today is to finally put on and wear a black and white striped shirt one of my relatives bought me for a birthday or Christmas... can't remember. But if I had a pair of pants to match it I'd look like a prisoner from many decades ago when they made them wear black and white outfits.
Anyway, the futures are up against a rising trendline of resistance but I'm still not excited about trying another short here. I'll stand pat and do nothing today as I suspect this up move has more then one day in it. I could see this chopping around next week to and continuing to grind up. Yeah, we should come back down at some point and retest the 2940 "former resistance" area... which then becomes support.
But I wouldn't count on that happening today. Most likely the bulls will hold this current area to make sure all the trapped bears give up. And let's not forget that there's a "possible" FP out there of 300.84 on the SPY, so that's around 3000 or more on the ES/SPX. Plus that's a nice round number, which still attracts the market like a magnet. My guess is that (again) we do some chop into next week and make a run for that FP where then we top out as all the bears become bulls expecting the all time high to be broken. Nothing on the horizon for today... trade-wise, so I'll just end here and go back to my prison cell. Have a great day and God bless.
Looks like we got the rally that was spoken about in the free chatroom yesterday. Guess I should have went long but again I didn't like the fact that the rally started in the last hour before the close. I would have liked it better if the market would have closed near the lows and then surprised everyone with this rally. It would have also had more strength I believe as a gap up tricks many and triggers buy stops on the shorts.
The rally starting before the close alerted the bears that it was coming so I suspect many closed out their shorts, which then limits the distance this bounce can really go. I seriously doubt if it can get past the prior highs in the 2940's, as this is now the 6th attempt back up. Something has to give here soon I think as if the bulls can't breakthrough this support zone on this attempt I have to believe that the next move down is going to be a large one... the kind that takes out the 8/5 low.
I'm not sure if it's going to start tomorrow or Friday but we are very close to a big drop starting. I'd certainly feel more comfortable if there was another fast pierce through that 2940 zone to hit some stops on the bears before starting this down move but SkyNet makes it very tricky and hard to see ahead of time. There's a "possible" FP of 300.84 (about 3000 ES/SPX) that worries me. Anyway, for today (and tomorrow) I'll be looking for a big short to setup at the close. When I take it I'll of course post it in the chatroom. Have a great day.
The holiday is over now and it's time to get back to the market, which is down about 20 points currently this early Tuesday morning. A big move is coming soon as the both the bulls and bears are getting tired I'm sure. One of them is going to give up and I think it's going to be the bulls. They've tried 5 times now to breakout of that 2940's zone of resistance and couldn't get much more then a slight pierce over it last Friday. Logic tells me it's time for the bears to drop it hard soon.
I don't see that happening today... but soon it's coming. Right now the bulls have found some support from a falling pink trendline. I'd still love to see a fast squeeze above that 2940 area of resistance before rolling over so they can get the bears out first, but with 5 failed attempts the odds aren't good for that happening. We'll just take it one day at a time now. As for today I think we'll find a bottom within the first 2 hours of the day holding above that falling pink trendline, and then rally some the rest of the day.
I'm not really expecting much action today as traders get back to work and try to figure out what to do next. But over the coming days I do think a big move will setup and show its hand. I think it will be a sell but I can't rule out completely that fast squeeze up through 2940 to shake out the bears might happen first... then down. I don't think it will happen that way, as odds don't support it.. but it would certainly fool the most traders I believe.
The higher odds play here is for some more range-bound trading until late this week where a large sell will setup and a big drop start the next day. We could see it as early as Wednesdays close but more then likely it will be triggered at the close on Thursday or Friday. But until it happens we are still stuck in a large trading zone with no clear direction. Have a blessed day.
Well gang, I guess I exited too early on my longs yesterday at the close. Bummer. But a win is a win and always better then a loss. The futures have successfully pushed through the 2940 horizontal zone of a resistance, which was what I was thinking was going to happen on this 5th hit. But it's not easy to hold your position when you see short term charts getting very overbought and when you have a nice profit, so I did exit all my long yesterday and went to cash.
We still have the "possible" FP on the SPY that could mark the top of this rally up? But I don't know how many days it's going to take to get there unfortunately. With this quad top now broken in the premarket the bulls only job would be to hold it all day and make it support. Then they can rally another 40-60 points (ES/SPX) easily next week. This is common behavior for a large B wave up (from the 2775 low) to have a final rally (small C inside medium C) over prior resistance (the four prior tops around 2940) to take out all the shorts before rolling over to start the large C wave down. I guess yesterday I just didn't believe the market had the strength to do it, which is why I bailed out on my longs.
Of course if the bulls where to lose this level today and close back below the quad tops it could get ugly for them next week, but I suspect they will indeed hold it and end this week on a positive note going into the 3 day holiday. Then if they plan on taking it up to the FP on the SPY they should put out some positive news over Labor Day to juice the market again next Tuesday at the open. I suspect that a lot of traders will remain bearish these next 3 days looking for something bad to be released and cause a gap down on Tuesday, but this premarket rally over prior resistance is quite bullish, not bearish.
It's all about the bulls HOLDING this level into the close today. As long as they can do that I'd expect a run for the upside FP on the SPY next week. But if they rollover today and start dropping then it could get pretty ugly. There's a "possible" after-hours downside FP on the SPY yesterday around 4:25 showing a low of 288.88, which would bad for the bulls if it's a real target and not just a late fill from the open (which is what it looks like). Bottom line here is that today is NOT a day you want to just walk away from and start the weekend early. Anything can happen from the open till the close.
As I said, I exited my longs yesterday because the short term charts were looking too overbought to continue up again today... yet they did anyway. So they are NOT any less "overbought" but MORE overbought. Holding this level all day isn't going to be an easy task by the bulls so don't just assume it's going to be a boring day. We "could" (again, NOT saying it will but happen, but possible) see a late day rollover and move down to that "possible" FP of 288.88, which is about a 60 point drop on the ES/SPX from here. Holiday reversals are common as SkyNet knows traders aren't paying attention.
So today is more important then it looks. Hold the level into the close and the bulls can rip it up next week another 40-60 SPX points... lose it isn't an option for them. In fact if the bulls lose it and we drop hard into the close it might just end the large B up and be the start of the large C down. If I take any position I'll of course post it in real time in the free chatroom. Have a great weekend and may God bless you.
Yesterday was one tough day as the market was at a critical point where it could have just as easily gaped down this morning or gaped up. I had all those crazy feelings come into my gut telling me to panic and sell my longs, but I held them. Yeah, it was risky but I asked God for help is deciding and as strange as that might sound he gave me the courage to hold on to my longs.
If you have never felt the devil telling you to panic and close your position (usually while in a losing spot) then I guess I'm the only crazy one. But I suspect everyone feels it when SkyNet is trying to scare you out of a trade as you watch the tick by tick action throughout the day. Then at the last minute you panic and close out your trade for a loss (or small win), only to watch it rip in your direction the next day.
That's the feeling I had yesterday going into the close. It's like satan himself is whispering into my ears telling me to panic and close out the trade. But I held long as I ask God to help me each and every day. So hear we are this morning with the futures up nicely but coming into that overhead resistance zone around 2940 where the bulls where stopped 4 times in the past. If they can't get through this 5th attempt then my guess is that the sideways large B wave up from the 8/5 low will be finished and the next big move down will break that prior low and start the large C wave down.
I'd really like to see this resistance broken so all the stops can be ran on the bears. Then the next drop will be even larger as there won't be as many bears short, which always puts a floor on how deep you can go. Naturally I'd like to see it drop to that "possible" FP from 1/7/19 of 245.29 on the SPY. While a breakout above wouldn't necessarily be required I don't think it would make it a lot easier (and faster) I believe if the bears were stopped out before the coming large C wave down starts.
So if the bulls can take out that 2940 wall of resistance today then they could squeeze up as high as 3000 I'd guess. And we have a "possible" upside FP of 300.84 on the SPY, so that's what I'd look for as a top of this large B up from the 2775 low. Will it happen? I don't know? I just keep asking God for wisdom, courage, strength, patience and discernment each day and let the rest take care of itself. Have a blessed day.
P.S. We are going into a 3 day holiday weekend where "turns" are common, so today and tomorrow are the bulls best chance to take out that 2940 resistance zone.
In the chatroom yesterday I suggested that we might have started some kind of ABC move up from the Sunday night low on the futures. If so, then the A likely ended at the open yesterday where the B wave down started. It could end today at the open as it's close to a "possible" FP from Monday after-hours. From there I'd expect a C wave up to last into the end of this week, or maybe into early next week.
If this plays out then it should be the last series of waves to complete a larger B wave up from the 8/5 low of 2775... especially if we take out the quadruple top area of resistance around the 2940 area. But even if we don't take it out a 5th hit of it has to be the last one before the bulls just throw in the towel on getting through it. I'm in the camp that there are too many bears awake and short right now, which tells me a "much needed" squeeze over that 2940 area is needed before the big drop to retest the December lows can start.
We are going into a 3 day weekend as well for Labor Day, so if ever there was a good time to do a squeeze it would be perfect now. It's been a common pattern of SkyNet to make the market look positive before a holiday, but it's also been common to see "turns" happen around them. So if we rally hard then the "turn" would be back down, or if we continue down then the "turn" would be up after the holiday.
But considering how bearish traders are right now I don't see a huge drop happening going into the holiday. None of us sheep know whats coming next for certain, but we can do "best guesses" using all the available facts and evidence at hand. SkyNet is a master at tricking the sheep, and when things are too obvious they rarely play out. I've heard others talk about the "MA" pattern the market is making, which it is indeed... but it's so obvious that I doubt if it plays out.
You add in the holiday coming, the "too many bears short", the possible (and likely) wave count that is missing a final C wave up, and the technical s that still say we are very oversold on the short term... and you have enough factors for me to believe we will go up into Friday and drop next week, versus drop hard today, tomorrow and Friday and rally next week. But, the big question is... how high will we rally? Will we take out the quadruple top around 2940 to squeeze out the shorts, or will it truncate short? We have until Friday to find out.
Insider: Is Trump Family Cult Behind Coming Armageddon?
(April 12, 2018) Here, Michael Berg laid said Trump is the instrument of a fanatical Cabalist cult, the Chabad, which believes the goyim must be destroyed in the Third World War in order for the “Messiah” to return and assume leadership over a Masonic Jewish-dominated world.
David Goldberg, 59, left was murdered June 8 after revealing that a White House insider had provided him with memos that revealed: 1) Trump had converted to Judaism two years ago and was planning an attack on Iran this autumn in order to fulfill Jewish prophecy. 2)Trump believes his son-in-law Jared Kushner is destined to be the Messiah (i.e. the antichrist)
(Disclaimer – I cannot vouch for this information but it certainly confirms our worst fears and cannot be ignored.)
Source (excerpts by henrymakow.com)
President Donald Trump converted to Judaism two years ago, and joined the Chabad Lubavitch synagogue in New York City, according to a high-level White House official.
According to the source, Trump was “pushed” by his daughter Ivanka and his son in law, Jared Kushner, to join the faith. At first, Trump resisted, stating it could threaten his base of Evangelical Christian voters. However, he had a change of heart and officially converted in early 2017. The ceremony was held in private and closely guarded for nearly two years.
It appears the White House is prepared to slowly release this information, and by Summer, it is expected Trump will fully address his new faith in an evening televised news conference.
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President Donald Trump and his inner circle are planning an extensive invasion of Iran, according to a source working in the White House.
The plan involves a ground invasion and the use of tactical nuclear weapons, in a campaign planned for the Fall of 2019. Iran will be “wiped off the map” according to the source, and the war effort is expected to cost “two and half times the Iraq War.”
The war will be promoted by the news media and Trump will go right along with it, after an “expected False Flag pinned on Iran, probably something involving the boats in the Strait of Hormuz.” The False Flag is an “integral part of the plan” as Iran has reportedly no desire or intent to start a war, according to the whistle-blower.
The war plans have the White House staff “in an excited tizzy” as war-hawks like John Bolton put the “finishing touches” on the planned strike.
President Trump initially showed resistance to the plan, but has since jumped on board with enthusiasm, convinced Iran is an “existential threat to Israel” and as such, war is required to “eliminate them.”
Further details have been revealed, including 100 tactical nukes will be used to eliminate the Iranian military. 120,000 U.S. ground troops will be used in the invasion. France, the U.K., Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Israel are expected to join a “coalition” in support of the war. CIA assets and counter-intel efforts have been ramped-up over the past year in preparation. A “False Flag” is being prepared to be used before the war with Iran. Propaganda is being prepped by White House and Israeli counterparts. Israel will support the effort and Benjamin Netanyahu was reportedly “smiling ear to ear” during a recent meeting with John Bolton. There are concerns Trump’s “base” may resist or criticize the efforts, so further propaganda efforts are being made to “shore up support” for the war. Expected casualties range between 1.2 Million and 2 Million Iranians and 5,000 US troops.
Due to President Trump’s close relationship with Jared Kushner, a sense of “sober import” has been placed on the war effort, which is being as a fulfillment of “Jewish prophecy” within White House circles. Many in the White House believe Jared Kushner is the “Messiah” or Jewish “Moshiach” who cannot attain his “throne” until Iran is wiped out.
The White House source is a high-level official who has been right about many other things in the past, and their identity has been verified.
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President Donald Trump has reportedly told close senior White House associates that he wants Jared Kushner on the presidential ticket in 2020.
Two senior sources have said the President has expressed he would prefer Kushner as Vice President over Mike Pence, in part due to the fact Trump believes Kushner is the Jewish “Messiah” or Moshiach.
The sources added that Trump said he generally likes the job Mike Pence has done, but that the President stated “things are moving so quickly with our plans in Israel, that we need Kushner closer to power.” The quote was provided by a source who said that Trump said this, verbatim, word for word. The source did not speculate on what the President meant by “plans in Israel” or why Kushner would need to be closer to power.
The Kushner family continues to garner controversy, with the recent publication of “Kushner, Inc.” by author and researcher Vicky Ward.
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A person friend reveals:
David kept me abreast of things over email, and he told me he had been given some documents he felt could, for certain, get him killed. The documents related to some internal White House memos in which a couple of New York rabbis were meeting with Trump frequently, and the memos talked about the nature of those meetings. I didn’t get full details, except that it seems the rabbis were going to deliver for Trump a reelection victory if he did things they were asking. I guess Trump was listening intently, because — well this is what David said to me — because the rabbis had a lot of power, in ways in which they could rig the elections if they needed to.
The memos also talked about how Trump’s poll numbers were not very good and he could easily lose in 2020, and the White House knew this, and this was part of the reason why Trump was paying so much attention to these rabbis. I guess they just have a lot of control or something, and Trump needed them. David said the documents if they ever got out, would be very bad for Trump, because there was no way to put a positive spin on them. He said the memos were pretty blunt and seemed to have been written by a couple of staffers coordinating the meetings.
There were also documents in David’s safe that we were able to recover after the cops left. They took a lot of David’s stuff without any explanation as to why, but they didn’t get the safe, which was a floor safe and it’s possible they didn’t even know it was there. In fact, we’re pretty certain they didn’t know it was there, because it is very well hidden.
David was smart and put pretty much everything in that safe that was important. David had also given at least three friends access to his online accounts, and said if something happened to him, to be ready to take over.
The rest of his stuff, which was paper, notes, his computers and phones had some information but nothing like what was in the safe, where he kept all of it. The friends removed everything from his safe, and have made copies of what they could and have those copies in safe places in case anything happens.
There will be some more updates coming. We are talking on a video which will show the documents, and also we have retained a lawyer to go over how best we can present the information David left behind.”
Still in no mans land between support below and resistance overhead. Nothing is really clear for the direction which is exactly how SkyNet likes it I'm sure. You can't go long here or short, so you just wait until a better opportunity shows up. The SPX/ES has hit a brick-wall about 4 times around the 1940 area, so you have to think that if they hit it a 5th time they will get through it and start a nice bear squeeze... at least that's I'm preferred scenario.
Why? Because we've had too many large down days in the past several weeks without breaking down and starting the journey to the revisit the December 2018 lows, or get close at least. There is too much bearishness out there I believe and that usually prevents any flash crash, crash or super large drop from happening.
Bears need to become bulls for drops like the December one to occur. So while I'm a bear at heart I'm looking for a strong move up first before I'm interested in shorting for the ride down to the 1/7/19 FP. This morning this rally up is running into the falling yellow trendline of resistance and has yet to putting in any positive divergence. It suggests to me that the market isn't yet strong enough to push through overhead resistance. Maybe it just through the yellow trendline but I don't think it will get through that 2940 quadruple top zone.
But if the bulls were smart they'd pullback today about half the move up from the Sunday night low and turn back up tomorrow so that they'd have created positive divergence and then they'd have a much better chance of not only getting past the yellow falling trendline of resistance but even the 2940 area well. It would have the added benefit of getting even more bears short, which is more fuel for a short squeeze on the way back up.
It's a tricky move as I have to think that another big drop here is going to be seen in advance by all the bears and they will be expecting it to take out the Sunday night lows, so they will ride the squeeze back up thinking it's just a bounce before going lower again. I'd love to play both the down move and the up move but getting SkyNet to give me a perfect setup is like trying to train a shark not to bite you. Anyway, that's my thoughts for today. I don't know how it's going to play out but I'm still rooting for a bear squeeze so the real big drop can start. Have a great day and God Bless.
It's the wild, wild west stock market with mini-flash-crashes it seems! I've missed a lot of big moves as it just didn't see them coming, especially not to the degree of depth that they went. What does it all mean? To me it says the end is near for the sideways rally up from the 8/5 low and the next big drop is right around the corner. Since the 7/29 high of 3029 on the ES, down to the 8/5 low of 2775 is a total of 254 points in total (to make a large A wave), one could expect a similar move down for the large C wave at the very least. If the 2940 high sticks for the large B wave up then 2686 would be the expect low if C equals A.
But many C waves go much more then just the length of the A, some even go double... which would be about 2432, and that's pretty close to the 245.29 FP on the SPY from 1/7/19. So I would not be surprised if that's the planned target low with the large C wave down. It's also looking like it might just go right into our passport code of September 17th, 2019.
Anyway, for the short term I'm expecting a bounce today, which we call already see that the futures are up nicely from the overnight low of 2810. What could happen (meaning... if I were SkyNet this is what I'd do) is move back down some right at the open as new shorts that missed the Friday drop pile on... and trapped longs try to get out with a smaller loss. But this should be a trap on the bears as a strong move back up is more likely then another large drop today. I would drop it early to tease the bears and somewhere between the open and the 11:30 am EST Europe close (and lunchtime for Americans) I'd turn it back up and start the squeeze the rest of the day into the close.
If fact if you really want the bears completely out before the next large drop you should take it all the way back up to the highs on Friday... yeah the 2940 zone! I know, that's crazy but there's a "possible" FP on the SPY after the close (looks more like a late fill, but could be a real FP?) showing 292.28, so don't be shocked if SkyNet pulls another move back up to that level today. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's very possible.
This isn't your normal market where you get perfect 50% retracements or so other Fibonacci level to short at. It's NOT the 70' or 80's market where only the insiders and professional traders had access to technical analysis. Now the sheep have the same tools as the pro's do, and thinking that the old school style of trading would continue to work today with the masses having the same knowledge and access as the elite is just foolish.
The market has completely changed since computers gave the sheep the charting ability of the pro's. If we do indeed get this rally back up today that retraces almost 100% of the move down on Friday (or even pierces through 2940 to run stops) I'll go out on a limb and say that's the last strong move up before the big down move starts into September (aka, the large C wave down).
Needless to say I'll be looking to short the close today if we get such a powerful rally. If we only get 50% (almost there right now if you include the Sunday night low) I'd be shocked and would have to decide on what to do at that point. I might wait another day or I might still short it. I'll of course post it in the free chatroom. Good luck to everyone today.
