Tricky market as the gap up yesterday faded by midday to fill the gap and then went back up to close around where it opened. I completely wasted day. The futures this morning look about the same as the market dipped afterhours/premarket to retest the low from yesterday but are back up to flat right now. Today looks like another chop day to me.

The bulls just won't let the market drop unfortunately. I'm now short and long in different position and the thing that hurts most is of course this sideways chop. Charts are mixed now with the 2 hour looking like it wants to turn back up soon but the 4 hour is bearish. The 1 hour could go either way. Basically we are looking at another chop day most likely.

I'll just have to lick my wounds on this one and look for the next good trade as it doesn't look like any rally up is going to happen and let me profit from my longs, nor a drop for the shorts. Monday will be a tough one to call as charts could align up in a bearish formation over the weekend and open down, or the bulls could prevent it like they always do and open sideways like today is starting off. If the bulls could turn the 2 hour chart back up (late today or over the weekend) then they could get a squeeze going on the upside.

It's not looking good for today as more time is needed I think to allow the 4 hour chart to go from overbought to neutral. It's all just guessing right now as you really can't forecast accurately what direction the charts will align up to in the future. For today... a whole lot of nothing appears to be the game plan. For Monday, just flip a coin as I just don't know?

But I'll say this, if the bulls can creep up a little higher today they could pull off a "gap up and go" on Monday. Will it happen? I don't know? I just know that the Fed's are pumping more money into the system then ever before in the past, and I know they always want the market to go up. Anyway, have a great weekend, and remember that God loves you even when you screw up (talking about me on the last trade).

Well, the short I took on Tuesday was looking good early yesterday but then the market fell asleep and went mostly sideways the rest of the day. I took a chance and held the shorts into this morning looking for a bigger move down to start but instead wake up to this gap up. It's not huge but still it defies the charts, which isn't surprising as we all know how manipulated the market is.

I'm not sure what to expect today as this could just be another stop run on the bears before rolling back over and going down. Or it could be the start of another leg up with new all time highs on the bulls agenda. Naturally I'm hoping it's just a stop run and that we'll rollover after the open. But I just don't see anything bullish in the short term charts.  This looks like an exhaustion move to me.

It still looks bearish on the 4 and 2 hour charts and even the 1 hour chart as well. This looks more like the 1 hour chart trying to hook back up on it's MACD's but Stochastic are overbought and wanting to rollover. Plus this now makes triple negative divergence on the MACD's of that 1 hour chart. The 2 hour chart has negative divergence as well and working on making it a triple. The 4 hour just has its first negative divergence (aka... double, which is two peaks with the newest one having a lower high then the prior one).

The 2 hour Stochastic is pointing up still but could rollover if other charts do. The 4 hour Stochastic has been falling from overbought but paused about half way down and turned back up... but could rollover again too. This is where you get into trying to guess at what the charts are going to do and how they work together. You have to add in many other things as well, like trendlines of support or resistance, wave counts, moving averages, day of the week, day of the month, week of the month, and month of the year.

That doesn't count outside things like the Fed's injecting more money into the fat pig to keep it going up forever. But most of the time when you have multiple things align up together for a move up or down it does work. Sometimes the down moves get stopped short by the Fed of course, and sometimes they just get delayed a little while. I think today will be one of those cases where the down move gets delayed but still happens. I just need to see this morning gap up get faded shortly after the open and then I'll feel like the move down was just a day late and not canceled.

But if the bulls start going up much higher I'm afraid we'll see a strong rally up to above the 3029 high today. If so, it's a BIG short. Target would be just over 3036 or so. I won't like it of course as I'm already short and feeling the pain this morning. But I'll double down if we do indeed make a new all time high this morning as it should not close up there. It will very likely just be a stop run with an intraday reversal back down.

It's going to be tricky today for sure but I'm a mega-bear at a pierce of 3029. Of course if we rollover here after the open and don't make it up that high then I'll be looking for the rising yellow trendline as support and a possible target low to exit my shorts at. One last thing, if we chop sideways all day again I'll be forced to look for an exit for my shorts as I can't take another day of time decay while the market makes another bull flag. Have a blessed day.

Yesterday near the close I decided to take a short position. A lot of factors went into it, like the 5 wave up move from the 2888 low on 10/8 looked completed. There was negative divergence on many charts. The SPY came within pennies of hitting 300 while the SPX/ES pierced it a little.

The VIX expiring on the options part yesterday at the close and the futures part this morning at 9am EST, which I previously thought they both expired today but I did further research to nail down the exact time. That means at the open this morning the new November contract on the VIX will start and the market makers aren't under any pressure to push it down so they can keep all the money from naked calls they sold previously.

In fact it's to their benefit to drop the market today so the VIX can rally up and they can repeat the process again. Also there's a possible FP on the SPY from Fridays close at 293.18, which is another reason to short. There's way too many calls at the 300 strike price for todays expiration, so it looks like a move down to 297-298 range would be a better spot to close it at today as that's where the puts and calls get closer to equal.

Of course that doesn't mean we can't drop lower intraday as we could go all the way down to that FP on the SPY and then rally back up into the close to pin it in that 297-298 zone. I'm not saying that's going to happen of course, but it's possible. A more common move would be a slow drift down into that zone for a tiny A wave, then a tiny B up early tomorrow and back down to the FP for the tiny C down.

After that I'd expect a rally back up on Friday again, but I doubt if we make it to 3000 again... at least not on Friday. Next week though is another story as I do believe we'll see a new all time high soon, and then we could have a nice correction down (hopefully... LOL). For today though I'm short and will be rooting for the 293.18 FP to get hit where I'll exit shorts and probably go long. But again, more then likely we'll just chop around and pin the SPY in that 297-298 zone. My God bless you in your day to day life and especially in trading. He's done that for me, and all I had to do was ask him for help. Happy Hump Day!

We had a red close yesterday, which kills Lucy3 unfortunately. But there's another even stronger sell setting up right now, and it's targeting this Thursday or Friday. So all is not lost for the bears. The market is clearly at an inflection point where it will decide within the next few days what the next big direction is going to be.

If it takes out last Fridays high it could get a squeeze going and run it up a 100 SPX points higher then where we are at right now. Failure to breakout should result in a 100 point drop easily, probably a lot more. In fact if this big sell happens then I'll be looking for the June 3rd lows to come into play, and that's more like 200 points down. Bearish sentiment is still quite high so we might see the break out to the upside instead? I wish I knew but until the charts paint a clearer picture I just have to wait in cash.

Yesterday didn't help either, as far as clues go I mean. But that was to be expected with the bond market and the banks closed for Columbus Day. In Canada they were celebrating their Thanksgiving Holiday as well, so I'm sure all of that contributed to keeping the market volume very light. As far as wave counts, we appear to be in that tiny wave 5 up this morning. Again, counting waves and getting it correct before hand is just random luck in my opinion. If I get this one right then I was lucky. If not, then it's the typical "back to the drawing board" for an "alternate" wave count.

Elliottwave worked really well back in the 1980's before computers could track it for you. When it was done on paper by hand there were very few traders in the world that did it, or even knew about it. But today every sheep knows about it, and that's a big reason it doesn't work any better then just random guessing in my opinion. SkyNet is programmed to "run the stops" on both bulls and bears alike.

So if it see everyone long expecting a large wave 3 up then it tricks them first with a move down. A prime example is the afterhours drop last Wednesday the 9th in the futures market. SkyNet ran all the stops on all the bulls that were long and then started the wave 3 up (which I called a tiny wave 3). Now we are watching closely for what looks to be a tiny wave 5 up happening this morning.

Naturally you can understand why I'm hesitant to short right now as if SkyNet ran the stops last week on the bulls because the wave 3 up was stopped by too many traders then what's to say that the same traders see this same tiny wave 5 up right now and are loading up on shorts? Do you think SkyNet will see that? Of course it will, and if there indeed a lot of shorts loading the boat now then you just know that the next move will be up to squeeze them out. Don't get me wrong as I'm rooting for this big sell to setup this Thurs/Fri but I'm not steeping in front of a squeeze on the bears either. I'll just watch and wait to see if all the necessary moves happen between now and then. Have a blessed day.

Futures are set to open down a little this morning. It looks like a continuation of the late day pullback on Friday. If I continue with the Elliottwave count that I discussed several times last week I'd say this is a tiny wave 4 down inside a small C wave up. If this count is correct then it should turn back up at some point today for the tiny wave 5 up. It should end tomorrow and complete the small C wave up, which also ends the medium wave 2 up inside large C wave down. Basically, (again... if this wave count is correct?) after Tuesdays last high the market should drop hard the rest of the week in a nasty medium wave 3 down inside a large C wave down.

However, there are of course things that can make this wave count incorrect. If we take out the high on Friday by more then just a small pierce I'd say the count is wrong and the market could (should) go much higher. I'm looking for a this tiny wave 5 up to end around a double top area from Friday, so it should be a weak move, not a strong one that takes out that high and squeezes up the current all time high. No, this tiny wave 5 up that is expected to end tomorrow should be weak.

If we get it, and today's wave 4 doesn't go much lower then the current premarket low, then odds are good for this to play out. Ideally, we want to see the wave 5 up start late today to put in a small green close, and then continue tomorrow into the end of the day Tuesday. I'm going to keep this update short and end it here as most of this has already been covered last week. Anything other then this scenario happening will of course kill the wave structure and put us back at square one trying to figure it out again. Have a great day.

Ok gang, this morning we see the futures up nicely as they pushed through that falling light green trendline (finally... only took 9 attempts!). I did a chart after the close yesterday in the chatroom and will post it again here with this mornings update. I believe we are a couple of days away from a very large drop. It's setting up for Lucy3 again and could trigger on Tuesday of next week at the close.

If you refer the chart from yesterday you'll see I believe we are in small C wave up (from the 2888 low on 10/8), inside a medium wave 2 up (from the 2855 low on 10/3), inside a large C wave down (from the 3025 high on 9/13 or 3024 on 9/19?). The large A down was the drop from the 3029 high on 7/29 to the 2775 low on 8/5... which is 169 points in total. I expect this C down to be at least that much again, but usually C waves are like 1.618% of the A wave, so a move back down near the June 3rd low is possible.

For the short term though I think we are in a "tiny wave 3" up today of "small wave C up". That leaves Monday and Tuesday to carve out the "tiny wave 4" down and "tiny wave 5" up. That should complete the "small wave 2" up, which ends "medium wave 2" up and then (drum roll please) "medium wave 3" down inside "large wave C" down beginning! It's the wave we've all be looking for... a bull killer!

I'm not into EW really for predicting the future but I do use it with other technical stuff and that's why I'm referencing it today. There more factors involved here then just wave counting but they all match up nicely, so this time around Lucy3 has a great chance of happening. If you don't know what I'm talking about you'll have to join the free chatroom and go read a page I labeled "Codes" and then you'll "get it". Put simply though... it's a BIG DROP! So get ready bears, your time is near.

Have a wonderful and super blessed weekend. Remember that God is in full control of this world and he loves you. I know he loves me as ever since I've been talking (praying) to him daily he's answered my prayers. Totally amazing, as all you have to do is ask for help and he's there. God Bless.

WOW! What a crazy afterhours session last night in the futures. Everything looked fine until about 6:15pm EST and then the bottom fell out and dropped into a low of 2881, which was about a 36 point fall from the 4:00pm close. It got wilder from there as it rallied back up into 8:00pm to 2917... which was the 4:00pm close.

After that it dropped hard again, hitting 2886 and one more time it rallied up into around 9:30pm or so for a 2923 high. Finally it calmed down and has been going sideways every since then. It set to open around that area too. Fortunately I exited all my longs yesterday around 3pm in the afternoon and stayed in cash. I did NOT see this "Crazy Ivan" move at all. I guess Sean Connery tricked me on that one.

But I wasn't following him either (not in any position) so he never caught me. But we still have time for a Red October, so the hunt goes on. Yesterday I said I believed we'd chop around today and into Friday with a slow grind higher to around the 2950 area (+/-10), which could still be accurate. I say "could" as I'm not sure now with the wild west show last night. But possibly that was just SkyNet hitting all the stops on both the bulls and bears? If so then it has certainly cleared them out I'd say.

Therefore it should be free to get back on track and do what it should do... chop upward into Friday. That's still my "best guess" but I'm not playing it of course. No positions for me right now. We'll see how today plays out and tomorrow. If all goes as planned then hopefully there will be an opportunity to take a short over the weekend. But bears need to be scared to short it of course. Or maybe I need to wait unti Monday, just not sure right now. So I'll end this update now and try to re-gather my thoughts for later. Have a great day.

Well, we got the move down yesterday I was looking for, but it went deeper then I expected. And while it technically did bottom by midday and rally it ended around 3pm and then went back down lower into the close, so that forecast was certainly off some. But we see the futures up this morning, which was what I was expecting. However, the 4 hour chart went deeper yesterday then it did back on the 5/20 pullback and rally into 5/21, so I'm going to say that the similarities between that period and now are starting to go away a little.

I believe that yesterdays drop and last weeks' drop were too sharp and woke up too many bears, and that tells me it's not going to be easy to catch the next drop. We all know that the majority of the bears must be asleep or caught off guard for these big drops to continue happening. With today rallying up and the obvious falling trendline as resistance I tend to think that every bear will be fully awake now and will short at a hit of that light green trendline. The futures almost hit it last night with a high of 2934.25, and then pulled back into the current price right now.

Looking at various time frame on the charts the 60 minute Stochastic are trying to rollover right now but not technically overbought yet. The MACD's are coming up to around the midpoint line and still look ok for more upside. The 2 hour Stochastic is around midway up now from below -50 yesterday and the MACD's are around the midpoint level and turning up. The 4 hour chart has the Stochastic pointing up with plenty of room to go as it just crossed back over the -50 level. The MACD's trying to turn back up as well.

What does all that mean? It tells me that the market is going to try and grind higher today, but there's a risk early this morning (first hour or so) of another down move from the 60 minute chart rolling over. I don't think it will last (if it happens) as the later in the day you go the more the market should grind higher. I suspect we'll get up to the 2935-2940 area by the close where that falling light green trendline is at currently. I doubt if I will short it though as I think the 4 hour chart will need more time to get overbought, like into Friday at least.

So while the 2 hour and 60 minute chart might rollover before then the 4 hour won't and therefore you'll have mixed charts, some pointing up and some down. That tells me there "should" be limited downside and probably limited upside too. It makes the most sense from a point of view that all the bears are going to short that hit of the falling trendline, and you can't have them making any money.

My hunch is that the bulls will grind through that trendline by Friday but the weekly chart is still putting a lot of bearish pressure on the market so I'm not expecting a move up to 3000 or even close. The prior high on 10/7 was 2959.00, so maybe a double top hit of that level would be my best guess by Friday. That's all for today. Have a blessed day.

This morning we see the futures down, which is what I suggested might happen in the chatroom yesterday. Basically it looks like we completed a 5 wave pattern up and are currently doing an ABC move down, with this early drop likely being the C part. Short term charts where just too overbought yesterday for the market to get through that falling light green trendline, so a pullback was much needed.

The test for the bulls will be to end this down move in the first half of today and turn back up for another run at trying to get through that trendline. The 4 hour MACD's are exactly where I thought they would be when the turn down was supposed to happen. You'll notice they also turned back up later that day and into the next day to try to get through the falling trendline it was struggling with back then. It failed and rollover over again, which would be like hitting today trendline tomorrow, failing and rolling over Thursday, then back up into Friday to fail again.

It will be interesting to see here if this pattern continues to mirror the past one as we go forward into tomorrow and the rest of the week. I worry that if too many people spot the comparison it will fail to continue "move for move" and do something tricky... like breakthrough the falling light green trendline maybe? But it if does indeed continue to mirror that prior pattern then a drop at some point soon (like after Friday) should take us down to revisit last Thursdays low at the very least.

From there we'll have to see what the charts look like but if they still look similar to the prior period then as much as I hate to say it, I don't think it will hold. I was kinda rooting for a blow off top rally into late October but it's not looking good right now for that to happen. Odds are now shifting to move down similar to that 5/16 bounce high down to the 6/3 low. So if the pattern continues we should bounce back up today into tomorrow and hit the falling light green trendline again, fail at it, drop on Thursday, then make one final bounce back up to hit it again on Friday.

After that it's pretty much straight down into the June 3rd low... and since we have a FP on the QQQ that is right around that June 3rd low it's looking like it could be a real one now. We'll continue to play it day by day but if the bulls can't get through that falling green trendline soon it's going to start down hard next week. For today I think we'll bottom by midday and turn back up for a run to the falling green trendline into Wednesday. Have a wonderful and blessed day.

Last Friday did pretty much what I was looking for as the bulls rallied up all day long. It had all the signs of a wave 3 of some degree and the 6am Sunday night open gave us a wave 4 down, which puts us in a wave 5 up now just shortly before the open. Of course this is only the ES Futures so we might need another day for the SPX/SPY to carve out a wave 4 down and 5 up... don't know?

Regardless of whether that happens on not there's overhead resistance here on the ES that won't likely be pushed through today during normal trading hours. There's the falling green trendline as well as the 200 period simple moving average in light blue. Granted this is on the 4 hour chart and not the daily but it's resistance never the less. It's currently at 2954.22 on this 4 hour chart and 2950.80 on the 1 hour chart.

But the thing I'm focused on is the similar technical picture between the 5/1 high to the 5/13 low and rally back up into 5/16, as after that there was another drop into the 6/3 low, which suggests we could still see another drop start after this current rally up stalls out and rolls over... which I think will be today, maybe tomorrow. However, as I repeated in the free chatroom several times Friday, patterns so similar rarely repeat exactly.

So while we might be topping like 5/16 right now I don't think the move down will make a lower low this time around like it did into the 6/3 low back then. My guess is that we'll go down and get close to the low last Thursday (which is like the 5/13 low) but fail to break it and go lower. Maybe it stops at the rising yellow trendline, or goes a little low to a double bottom zone, not sure?

But it should be deep enough to lure in a ton of bears looking for a C wave down, and that will be the point where SkyNet turns it back up and squeezes them into a likely new all time high. So my focus for today will be to try and figure out where this likely 5th wave is going to end at? Will it stop at the light green falling trendline or will it push through it a little to trick the bulls into going long thinking a breakout just happened?

What I don't want to see is a pullback during normal trading hours that leaves me thinking we are still in wave 4 down and the wave 5 up will be pushed out into Tuesday. For this to play out the way I'm hoping for I need it to rally up today and close green. It should get the MACD's on this 4 hour chart up near the mid-point level like the 5/16 period. The 60 minute chart (not shown) should then put in a lower high on its MACD's for negative divergence. Give me all of that and I'll likely short the close today. I'll post it in the chatroom of course if I do. That's my thoughts. Have a nice day.

Yesterday we what appears to me to be a "capitulation" spike move down. It was quickly recovered and the market has been going up ever since. You can see the MACD's have turned up nicely from that low on this 4 hour chart. It tells me the bottom is "in" for awhile. Of course nothing goes straight up without a pause or small pullback, which could happen if the 2 hour or 1 hour charts get overbought.

But pullbacks from here should be small as there's not much overhead resistance until you get up to the falling light green trendline and the 200 SMA in light blue. In the chatroom I posted a chart where I compared this to the 5/13 low and rally up into 5/16, and that still applies. They are very similar in a lot of ways. I've looked at the charts with MACD's, Histogram Bars, Full Stochastic on many different time frame.

They are almost too similar, which of course makes one wonder if they will repeat or not? I'll just play it day by day until we get up there I guess. My worry is that if I can see the pattern then so can many, many other traders, and when something is too obvious it rarely works. My speculation (hunch) is that we'll hit the falling light green trendline and rollover (like 5/16) but when we get back down to the yellow rising trendline (or even a little deeper to a double bottom from yesterday) we'll turn back up hard instead of breaking down lower like to move down to the 6/3 low did.

I'm not sure on it of course as I do have a FP on the QQQ that points to a revisit of that 6/3 low, but I want to be open minded here for the tricks SkyNet might play. For now though I'm still long and plan to hold into next week. I took a second long position at the fast recovery bounce back up yesterday as it looked very much like the bottom to me. Any updates or changes I will of course continue to post in the free chatroom.

If you are not a member you should join. There's a lot of good people there and we enjoy just chatting about life as well... especially during the boring times of the day. If you have trouble signing up just email me. Red (at) RedDragonLeo (dot) com Have a wonderful and blessed weekend. The temperature will start dropping for me here in Ohio. Starting tomorrow it will leave the summer 90's and enter the fall 70's... yippee!

Well gang, we dropped right to that rising yellow trendline and stopped... for now at least. I'm showing you the 4 hour chart this morning as I want you to notice how it's trying to turn back up right now, and how it looks similar to the low around 5/13, which turned back up from around the 20%+ area (we are closer to 25% currently) to rally into around 5/16 where it popped over the center line briefly and looks to have tagged about 70% or so.

From there it drop again into the 6/2 low in the ES price be that MACD line made a "slightly higher low" in the 20%+ area this time. That's a positive divergence on it for sure, which indeed put in the low and allowed a rally up into the 7/29 high. Pattern never repeat exactly but similar is common. So my thinking is that the bulls will hold this rising yellow trendline today (and 2874 for the double bottom) and turn that 4 hour MACD back up late in the day or tomorrow and produce a rally up into Friday or Monday.

After that we'll have to see if it looks ready to roll back over again or continue higher. The DOW is at a critical level too as it tries to hold the even number 26,000 level and the 200 day SMA currently at 26,064.77... which is another reason for a bounce here. The SPX has it's 200 day SMA at 2874.37... so it's no coincidence that was the low yesterday. I took a long yesterday via selling a put credit spread (291/290) that expires next Wednesday as my thinking is that we'll be well over 291 by expiration if a similar rally happens like that 5/13-5/16 bounce.

It always feels scary at times like this, just like 2 days ago when the market gaped up and ran to 2994.50 while I was stuck short. But that October 1st high was indeed a bull trap as the market fell off a cliff afterwards and put us over a 100 points lower to the current level we are at this morning. I feel the same right now as I did then, like I was wrong in making that decision to short like going long yesterday. And I suspect today will be a slow grind sideways day to keep me guessing more on my decision. I pray to God for patience today, as well as every day. Give me wisdom, courage, strength and discernment as well please Lord as this market is run by satan and he's a tough one to trade against. Where's my fiddle Johnny? Have a wonderful day.

Wow! What a day yesterday was. Here I was stuck short and hating it but around 10am that all changed as the market started to drop, and continued down all day long. Needless to say I'm a happy person today. My underwater positions turned into a profit... yippee. Ok, for today we see some follow-through on the downside as the futures lost the horizontal green trendline of support, which was the prior multi-highs back in August.

The only obvious lower trendline for the next support is the one in yellow, but the "even number" level of 2900 (26,000 DOW) will likely provide some kind of bounce (if we get there?). For today though I'm neutral as most days after a large drop day are "pause" days. Meaning they chop around a little going slightly lower then back up and commonly end the day around flat. Tomorrow and Friday is what I'm focused on.

I'd like to see a nice buy signal setup, or sell... but that would take a strong move up starting today, tomorrow and Friday, and that's unlikely. Basically, I'll be in cash for the next few days waiting for the next strong setup... buy or sell. Again, I don't see it being a sell as the bears are now fully awake... and they have bulls trapped long now. So again, odds are we'll drift lower the next few days (not big like yesterday) to lure in bears to short looking for another huge drop. It should also cause the bulls to capitulate.

Once that happens we should get a nice move back up. How much is anyone's guess as I have a downside target (via a FP on the QQQ) that tells me we will revisit the June, 2019 lows... but when is the question? Will it be in October, or November? I don't know? I'm just going to stick with what the market gives me each day and go with that. Have a great day.

The futures are up some this morning but the overnight session had them up more... and they managed to pop through the 200 simple moving average on this 60 minute chart. The bears are getting tired it seems as 3000 seems to be the goal for the bulls right now. The DOW is also seeking the big even number as it looks ready to take out 27,000 by the open.

I'm not sure what to make of this? Is it for real or another "fake out" to get the bulls trapped long before a reversal back down? Only time will tell I guess. I'm currently in a short position and obviously not liking it. I still feel like the market isn't bearish enough to support a strong rally up to new all time highs, nor bullish enough to allow a big drop. It's just in no mans land with a bullish short term bias this morning.

I hate being trapped on the wrong side but that's part of trading I guess as you win some and lose some. I'll give this more time to see what happens but I suspect we'll see a bunch of traders flip to long this morning. Will that cause the market to flip back to bearish mode or will it rally on up and pay the longs? I wish I knew. Today is the first day of the month of October so maybe it's just new mutual fund money being put to work and won't last but a few days? Anyway, I don't have much to add this morning so I'll end it here. Have a wonderful Tuesday.

Short post this morning gang. My brain isn't working yet... sorry. I was going to do a post over the weekend about the HUGE business opportunity coming soon, and I still plan to do it... so hang in there, it's coming. There's some "possible" FP's of 296.90 on the SPY from afterhours Friday but they got hit Sunday night. However, if we do rally back up any today that's the level I'd focus on.

The 294.69 level on the SPY is the 50 day simple moving average, and it's been holding as support quite well last week. But 200 day simple moving average is probably the real target to focus on, as it's near the FP level on the QQQ, and just a hair above the June 2019 lows. That level on the SPY is 282.97, and I think we'll eventually get there in the coming month. On the ES that same moving average is all the way down to 2835.92, and on the DOW it's a 26,050.90.

On the short term though I just don't have much to say, so I won't. I'll get to that business opportunity as soon as possible as well. But don't worry as it's still in prelaunch and had only 50-60 people involved a week or so back. The last business done by this same man had over a million people... so YEAH, it's SUPER Early right now. Have a blessed day.

The 298.38 FP was hit in the premarket session yesterday but by the time the market opened it was already down more then I was comfortable chasing it. SkyNet must be reading my posts and knew I was planning to short the hit of that FP but with Wednesday rallying up into the close and coming shy of it by 27 cents I thought I would wait until the open on Thursday to see if it hit.

Wrong! SkyNet hit the high (and FP) around 4:47 am EST Thursday morning and started going down from there. That is very frustrating as remember from a week or so back the FP on the QQQ of 194.78 was missed by 7 cents with a high on 9/12. True, it didn't rollover quickly like the SPY yesterday so shorting it wouldn't have been very profitable. But in all my years of tracking fake prints I've learned that they put out (by who I do not know?) to signal where the market is going too... not necessarily to say it will hit it and turn the other way immediately.

Most of the time they do turn but not always. Sometimes they chop sideways for awhile and then turn or continue in the same direction. What I can speculate on is that if the market is overall bullish the upside FP's will get pierced through and downside FP's will fall shy of hitting.

In a bearish market the opposite seems true where the upside FP's fall shy (at least in the normal trading hours) and the downside FP's will get pierced. Since we have the 194.78 FP on the QQQ falling shy by 7 cents and the 298.38 FP on the SPY falling shy by 27 cents into the close yesterday, I have to think the market is overall in a bearish mode.

Meaning it's getting harder and harder to keep it going up, which is amazing with the $75 Billion Dollars being pumped into it currently and until October 10th. One has to wonder where the market would be without that funny money.

Anyway, for today we can see the ES is back-testing the 200 SMA on this 60 minute chart, so I have to lean bearish until it proves itself by pushing through. However, with today being Friday I doubt if the bulls will let it drop much. More then likely we will continue to see these nice one day drops that float back up into the close each day until that funny money it's being put into the system each day.

It seems like the market opens, the big boys sell, the market drops some, the big boys stop selling, and the market floats back up into the close. A clear sign of distribution by insiders. It should all be done before this funny money injection runs out. So I expect a strong sell signal to setup within the next 2 two weeks, but until then it might just be a day traders market. Have a blessed weekend.

P.S. The business opportunity I've been talking about in the free chatroom has opened its' doors now so I'll do a weekend post on it to try an explain it the best I can. Timing is everything in life and since this one is just starting the opportunity is at its' biggest point. The owner has a proven track record as he did a company like this around 2003 or so and ran a Billion Dollars through it with about a million people involved world wide. My close friend (who knows the owner personally) told me there was only 50-60 people involved a week or so back (before it was open), so that tells you about how early in the stages of the company it is in right now. And get this... right now everyone has a chance to sign up for FREE! Yeah, that's HUGE! Afterwards the cost will be only $28.00 per month, so everyone can afford it. Anyway, more coming over the weekend.

The "possible" FP of 298.38 from afterhours on Tuesday is now hit this premarket morning and will likely be hit shortly after the open as well. It doesn't mean we will turn back down but it is a target that has now been hit. From a wave counting view I can make out 5 waves down from the recent highs last week, so we could be in another 5 wave move up... which, if so, the wave 1 up started at the low yesterday and should peak at this FP level. Then a move down today for a wave 2 followed by the 3,4, and 5 up into the end of the month on Monday for a nice "window dressing" for this 3rd quarter of the year.

Mutual Fund companies use some kind of law that says they have to report at least 3 trading days of any given month (or quarter I believe?) of what they have been investing their clients money into. So when you get a quarterly or yearly report from some retirement investing company it will list the stocks and other stuff they put your money into for your 401k plan.

However, they only have to report 3 days of any period and that's all they usually report. They don't like to tell their clients all the high risk derivatives, options, start up companies, or whatever else is out there that isn't what you'd call a safe investment. It's more common to just list the big boys companies that they know every client is aware of and feels safe with. That's of course the top 30 stocks in the DOW, as well as the top stocks in the SPX and Nasdaq.

Anyway, this is where the term "window dressing" came from as these big firm clear out the high risk stuff and buy up the dinosaur stocks, with is all for "show" to make their clients happy. So if we get a pullback today and stay higher then yesterdays low I'd tend to think we will rally up nicely on Friday and Monday to finish this quarter off on a positive note. After Monday though a new quarter starts and high risk trading will be back on the minds of mutual fund companies.

If a new all time high can be made before this quarter ends then maybe a squeeze on the bears can take it up much higher into the next quarter, or at least most of October. But if a new all time high isn't made I'd be on the look out for a big drop, which might just turn out to be that large C wave down I've been mentioning (and everyone else too). We'll see. Have a great day.

Yesterdays drop was a surprise but in this news driven market it seems that surprise drops happen a lot. The Trump impeachment news will take the blame I guess for the move down yesterday. But in reality we all know the market is very overbought and just staying up in this zone due to the funny money the Feds are pumping into it every day until at least October 10th. Technically we are still trading in a range so nothing there has changed... just wider then then I mentioned yesterday.

As for today I'm just going to wait and watch as I don't have any clear picture. But some clues should appear over the next few days to tell me if the market is setting up for a big drop or a strong rally. Yeah, it's hard to believe we could be setting up for a rally but sideways trading for awhile is also called "consolidation", and it could be filled with "buying" (by insiders) which means another strong leg up is coming, or "selling" (same insiders), which of course means a drop is coming. I don't know the answer yet... unfortunately.

Odds would favor a sell of course but we all know how tricky SkyNet is, so a buy is certainly possible. I'm just going to remain neutral here until I can figure out what SkyNet is setting up for... and that's not an easy task. Meaning I could "not see it" and miss the drop or rally. But I think I'll catch it this time. I think it will show its true colors (the next direction) by this Friday.

I think down as I still feel like that possible large ABC wave pattern needs to complete and we've only had the large A down from the July top to the August low, and have been in the large B up ever since. A large C down is needed I think and then a year end rally to new all time highs. Yeah, I could be wrong and the "so called" large A down is just a wave 4 and we are in a wave 5 up now... which could be correct? I can't rule out anything right now but should know more by this Friday. Until then I'm neutral. Have a blessed day.

The futures are set to open over the 3000 level on the ES (and over 27,000 on the YM, aka... the DOW). I had bought a small long yesterday morning and closed it out shortly after 4pm because of that late day pullback. Also because the market had pierced through 3000 and 27,000 earlier and didn't hold above them. I was a little worried about that being a failure attempt and that we could rollover this morning and open down. It's still possible I guess but less likely with the capture of the all important "even number" levels.

Like I said yesterday, the Fed's are pumping $75 Billion a day into this market and will do so until at least October 10th (the last day on their schedule). So it's going to be hard to believe we'll get much going on the downside with that kind of funny money supporting it. Is it cheating? Of course it is, but that's what all governments do... so don't be shocked. Everything in this world that has value the elite have lots of it, and they therefore have a vested interest in keep the inflated pig of a stock market up as high as possible for as long as possible. When they know they can't keep it up much longer they start selling out slowly over many months in advance, and once they are done they pull the plug and let it collapse.

That time is coming but probably not until next year. It will be an epic battle between those elite in control of the market and Trump as he will attempt to keep the market up until after the election. Who will win is unknown but odds say the elite will as they've done this move many times in the past (think 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2007) and presidents never stopped them back then, so what makes you think this time will be different? I don't. I think they will drop this market hard in 2020 regardless of what Trump wants. Will he still get re-elected? Probably so, as he'll blame it on the elite (aka, the deep state)... and he'll be correct.

Anyway, for today I don't see much happening. Looks like another boring day where bears try to short it and the funny money keeps it from going down. We appear to be rangebound again this week. But it's a pretty nice and wide range, and should be fun for day traders to go in an out. We were down in the low 2980's yesterday and we could easily revisit it again and still be rangebound. As you all know I'm looking for that last top before the drop starts that takes us down the June 3rd lows. It's coming but with all the funny money being put into the market we might not see it start until after October 10th... just don't know yet? But I'll get some great clues along the way I'm sure and if a strong sell signal triggers prior to that date I should be able to catch it. Until then it's more chop. Have a great day.

Sunday night the market popped higher but this morning it erase all those gains, so I'm not sure what to think about it right now? I'll have to wait to see what the day brings to get a better feel for it. I will add that the Fed's have scheduled $75 Billion worth of QE going on each day until October 10th, so we might not see any new downtrend start until after it's finished. More then likely we'll be range-bound between the mid-high 2900's up to the low-mid 3000's, with some breakout to a new all time high likely before the coming correction down to the June, 2019 low (at least that's where I think it's going).

This breakout though should be brief and not hold more then a day, nor lead to some move up to 3100, 3150, or whatever the big upside targets are currently. This is what I currently see, and it based a lot on the Fed's injecting all that stimulus into the market each day, which should keep it from starting any new downtrend. If it doesn't look like it's going to hold then I should get some kind of signals saying so, and will of course update everyone.

Today however is a mystery to me. We are into a support zone from 9/5 to 9/11, so I'd lean toward an early low and a float back up the rest of the day. Then the rest of this week I'll just have to watch closely to see if any sell signals get through the QE being put into the market. Maybe one still develops and makes it until the trigger date, but I'm not holding my breath on it. Anyway, have a blessed day.