ES Morning Update October 4th 2019


Yesterday we what appears to me to be a "capitulation" spike move down. It was quickly recovered and the market has been going up ever since. You can see the MACD's have turned up nicely from that low on this 4 hour chart. It tells me the bottom is "in" for awhile. Of course nothing goes straight up without a pause or small pullback, which could happen if the 2 hour or 1 hour charts get overbought.

But pullbacks from here should be small as there's not much overhead resistance until you get up to the falling light green trendline and the 200 SMA in light blue. In the chatroom I posted a chart where I compared this to the 5/13 low and rally up into 5/16, and that still applies. They are very similar in a lot of ways. I've looked at the charts with MACD's, Histogram Bars, Full Stochastic on many different time frame.

They are almost too similar, which of course makes one wonder if they will repeat or not? I'll just play it day by day until we get up there I guess. My worry is that if I can see the pattern then so can many, many other traders, and when something is too obvious it rarely works. My speculation (hunch) is that we'll hit the falling light green trendline and rollover (like 5/16) but when we get back down to the yellow rising trendline (or even a little deeper to a double bottom from yesterday) we'll turn back up hard instead of breaking down lower like to move down to the 6/3 low did.

I'm not sure on it of course as I do have a FP on the QQQ that points to a revisit of that 6/3 low, but I want to be open minded here for the tricks SkyNet might play. For now though I'm still long and plan to hold into next week. I took a second long position at the fast recovery bounce back up yesterday as it looked very much like the bottom to me. Any updates or changes I will of course continue to post in the free chatroom.

If you are not a member you should join. There's a lot of good people there and we enjoy just chatting about life as well... especially during the boring times of the day. If you have trouble signing up just email me. Red (at) RedDragonLeo (dot) com Have a wonderful and blessed weekend. The temperature will start dropping for me here in Ohio. Starting tomorrow it will leave the summer 90's and enter the fall 70's... yippee!