This coming Wednesday to Friday I expect another pullback to happen (so far, so good as the futures are down nicely this morning) but I don't see a lower low happening... not yet at least. Instead I'd guess that it will be a 50% retrace of the move up from the recent low. Call it a B wave down of some degree with the A up ending today or last Friday.

Then a choppy C wave up should begin and last for over a month I think. It should breakdown into 5 smaller waves of course and maybe subdivide even more? At some point though it will end (maybe up to 2750-2800 area?) and then we'll see another drop to take out the current lows. How far it goes is still unknown. But it's pretty clear to me that we've had a nice ABC down from the October 3rd, 2018 high to the low last week.

Each of those waves subdivided too of course. The thing unknown is whether we are going into a bear market recession or depression? If recession the move down expected in March or April from the 2750-2800 rally high will just take out the current low by a small about... like maybe 50-100 points.

If depression then we are going much lower, like down into the 1800's to 2000's zone for this spring/summer drop. From there another powerful rally would happen and then another powerful drop. In the end (2021?) we could retrace all the way back down to the March, 2009 lows (DOW 5,000 and SPX 600).

I really don't see that happening though as government will likely stop it will another round of Quantitative Easing and/or lower of interest rates. They already stopped the Christmas Crash when Secretary Steve Mnuchin conducted a series of phone calls with CEO’s of the largest U.S. Banks and the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets (Plunge Protection Team) to take control of the stock markets and ensure a crash will not occur.

That happened on December 23rd and 24th... which clearly prevented the market from crashing as that was the path it was on. (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-23/plunge-protector-mnuchin-reportedly-called-bank-ceos-calm-markets-ahead-monday-open) It's why we really never seen that huge "Capitulation" day in the volume. For today though it's looking good for that B wave down to make a higher low.

The C wave up MUST take out the recent A wave high last week or else the entire rally up from the lows last week will have just been one wave and not a 3 wave pattern (ABC). If that happens then I'd call that wave up a 4th wave and we'd then see a 5th wave down for a lower low... and that should happen this month if the rally is indeed just one wave instead of a 3 wave pattern.

It's really too early to know as we are just in the (possible) B wave down part this morning. On the next move up we'll have a better idea based on positive divergences setting up (or not?) on various time frames. But again, this next move up is where it's going to get tricky. So we'll just take it day by day. For this morning I suspect we'll see the low within the first hour or so of the day and then some bounce. Happy New Year everyone.

Today is the last day of 2018 and I'm not expecting much action in the market. A pin around the 2500 SPX area seems likely. The market will be close Tuesday of course for New Years Day. No point going into to much detail right now as again I don't expect much to happen.

On another note everyone in my free chatroom knows that that lost my beloved dog Suzy last week. She slipped a disc in her spine and it paralyzed her rear legs and body. I was up all night Christmas Day and so was she as the pain was horrible. The next day I took her the Vet and they said there was no way to cure her and I was forced to put her to sleep.

She was the smartest dog I'd ever seen.  She would go up on the hill side behind my house by herself and our other little dog Mickey (that we bought for Suzy to have a buddy to play with) would follow her up the hill. Then my two cats Simba and Sheba would also follow her as well. She literally would "walk the animals" herself without me! I've never seen anything like it in my life.

In the summertime I would take her and Mickey up the hill and both cats would follow too. But that was me walking them, not Suzy walking them without me. It's just been too muddy lately to go up the hill (for me at least), but Suzy missed those walks and would decide to do them without me.

She was incredible smart. I have 8 security cameras on the property and a monitor in the living room on the wall to the left of the big screen TV. Suzy would know the difference between what's on TV and what's on the monitor. She would lay on the couch and watch the monitor to see what's going on outside. Then if someone (usually a mail truck) would come onto the property she'd bark and leave the couch to go outside and meet them.

Micky doesn't have a clue what the monitor is or does, but he's still a puppy so maybe he'll learn? As most of you regulars know I lost my Dad back in March of 2016 and then my mother later that year in November. Suzy (my mothers middle name was Sue or Susan) was their dog first so losing her was like losing my mother all over again. She was less then 4 years old and should have lived to be 10-12... maybe 15? Needless to say I've had a very depressing Christmas. I can only think that my mother was missing Suzy in heaven and took her early to be with her up there. So this post is dedicated to Suzy. May she be happy again with my mother and dad.

Markets oversold everywhere and I'm expecting another big drop... aka, the crash wave. Yeah, it's crazy to even think that's possible during Christmas week but I'm still expecting it anyway. Today would be the most logical day to do it on as it's the day before Christmas and most traders will be gone. Plus the market closes early today at 1pm EST, so volume should be super light... but what if it's not? What if today is the day that we see that capitulation volume?

Last Friday at the end of the day I heard the closing bell ring twice through my Think or Swim account. It never rings twice. So was that a sign of a crash coming today like it was back on Black Monday, October 19th 1987 when the opening bell back then didn't ring at all? I believe it is a signal, and today would be the most likely day for another Black Monday. Everyone will be caught off guard due to the holiday tomorrow... which is a perfect time for them to pull the trigger I think.

Remember, all market debasements are planned by the elite that run the show. Nothing is random. While no one can guarantee something is going to happen on any given day I'll just say that the clues have been given for a crash this week and today seems to have the highest odds. If it doesn't happen today then great, I'll just look for lower prices in the coming days. Have a very Merry Christmas everyone, and may God bless you.

This could boil down to the most important week of the year... and the FOMC meeting the most important day? The goal today is for the bears to take out last weeks' low on a closing bases, and the bulls need to save it. It might be a fierce battle this week between bulls and bears and it could hinge on the FOMC meeting. Yes, the market knows the Fed's plan to raise rates again but it's main focus will be about what's in store for next year. So what Jerome Powell says about going forward in 2019 is what the market will be focused on.

I don't know who is going to win out between the bulls and bears this week but for the first time in many years it's bulls that are backed up on ropes right now. They are near a critical level and if they lose it we could see a free fall down much, much lower. If there was ever a week where we could see a crash it's this week. So it "do or die" time for the bears as well as if they can't break support before this week ends then I'd say the bulls will turn it back up after Christmas and never look back. Anyway, I'll keep this post short and just see what happens today. I'll give more of my thoughts in the chatroom as the day goes on. Good luck to both bulls and bears today.

The futures a down some this morning but there's nothing in the charts that stands out to me as bullish or bearish. And since the past two days has seen very low volume again I'd have to think we'll have low volume today as well. Normally this is bullish as the market tends to float higher on light volume but I'm not so sure today... at least not for any strong float higher. Why? Because these stats show that big funds are withdrawing large amounts of money currently, so while that doesn't guarantee we are going to crash it does suggest that we won't go up too much today.

Lipper reporting $46b equity MF + ETF outflow in the past week, which is huge, but at least half of this is seasonal end of year stuff. Last 6 yrs:
2013: -$13b
2014: -$18b
2015: -$13b
2016: -$21b
2017: -$22b
2018: -$46b

The largest equity fund outflow of the year almost always occurs in mid-December. Even so, this week's outflow of 0.44% of total equity fund assets is the largest in 15 years.  The previous record was 0.39% in mid-August 2011.

Next week the volume could get lighter if the bulls hold the current lows from this past Monday, and that would tell me a mild float higher into the end of the year. The crash window is from today until about the middle of next week or so. But it needs to breakdown through some critical support levels soon or this opportunity for the bears will be for nothing. They have setup a possible wave 3 of wave 3 of wave C down move in the charts, with a perfect "MA Pattern" as well.

Unfortunately they did going into late December when Santa usually shows up. If they would have done this in October we'd already crash by now. I can't say for sure what's going to happen but I can point out what I see in the charts, FP's and codes. Time is ticking for the bears here.

If they really plan on crashing the market they need to start soon. I've never seen a Christmas Crash so I'd be shocked if they actually do it. But the charts are perfectly setup to have one if they choose to pull the trigger next week? I'll say this, no one will see it coming if they really do it. Kinda needs some staged "event" (aka, False Flag) or some political shakeup to get the balls rolling I think. Have a great weekend everyone.

This week is do or die time for the bulls and bears as the following week the bullish seasonality period starts. That means the bulls just need to hold their ground and not give up that Jan/Feb low zone by more then just a fast pierce. The bears of course need the opposite as they are running on borrowed time. They need to break support below and get the bulls in a panic to force sell stops to hit hard.

For today the bears would be best served if they let the market close green to reset the consecutive down days in a row count so they can start it back again tomorrow. Short term chart were pretty oversold on Friday so odds do favor the bulls making that happen today. The bad news for them is that all these moves up and down have setup a series of lower highs and a possible wave 3 of 3 of C down pattern.

Now again, I'm not an Elliottwave expert but I can count and when I study the daily chart it looks like that wave series is possible. It also looks like an "M A" pattern, whereas the "M" is already formed and the left side of the "A" could be created today. The same pattern formed with the first big drop and recovery rally earlier this year. It failed as it should have because the market was still above most moving averages, above support zones and rising trendlines.

The opposite is true now as the market has broken important rising trendlines, is below many moving averages and has some very bearish looking weekly and monthly charts. The bottom line here is that there's much higher odds of this "M A" pattern working instead of failing like the one in the February to May period did. This rally up (if it continues all day today and closes green) could be the perfect bull trap. It will be exciting to watch it all play out for sure.

It's seems that what I wrote yesterday (below) started to happen in the afterhours so I'll just add some additional thoughts this morning. Short term the 60 minute chart is very oversold and due a bounce, but the 6 hour chart has more to go on the down side. We are at support from a falling blue trendline so a bounce back up today could happen. But the bad news (for the bulls) is that this looks like the start of a large wave C down and this first drop this morning in the the futures is likely just the wave 1 down of that C wave. So any wave 2 up bounce is likely to be followed by a wave 3 down (of C down) that should take out the 10/29 lows and 11/23 lows. Bottom line... it's likely to get nasty from here going forward.

Could it be saved? Sure, but that was back in the days when the Fed's were pumping money into the system via QE, and now they are taking money out with QT... along with rising interest rates. Anything is possible here but odds just shifted to the bears with the big drop on Tuesday and this mornings follow-through. As I said below (a post I did yesterday for today) I was looking for this big drop to start on Friday and would have shorted todays close but it fooled me. I wonder how many bears missed it? And more importantly is... I wonder how many bulls are trapped?

Everything below was written Wednesday afternoon (before the drop in the futures)...

Well, got my pullback to the 2700-2720 zone that I was expecting by next week... except it all happened in one day! Crazy market for sure! I was hoping they would hold the market up until Thursday and then tank it but that wasn't to be and instead it dropped 90 points on the SPX in just one day. It's like a wild wild west show in the market right now. So, where do we go from here you ask?

From a technical point of view we have the makings of a nice "W V" pattern with the "W" already formed with the lows on 10/29 and 11/23, and the "V" appears half formed now with the large drop on Tuesday being the left side of it. This "W V" pattern is a bullish pattern and is the opposite of the "M A" pattern that is bearish. What normally happens is once the bottom of the "V" is put in (might already be put in at the low on Tuesday?) the right side of the "V" goes up and takes out the horizontal top area and basically goes the same distance up from that level as it went down.

Meaning that if look at the horizontal top levels of 2823 on 10/17, then 2817 on 11/07, and 2814 on 12/03 you have around 2819 or so as a middle price range. So you take that and subtract the low of the "V" (right now it's at 2696 but it's not confirmed yet as the low of the "V") from that top and you get 123 points or so (2819-2696). Ok, now add that to the 2819 middle area to make the horizontal top of the "W V" pattern to get your upside forecasted target zone of the right side of th "V", or 2942 (2819+123).

That is your upside target if this plays out like a normal "W V" pattern... and it most cases they do indeed play out. We have the normal seasonality pattern of the Santa rally coming soon, and the bullish December month that rare has even seen a crash in it. So what's to worry about then you ask? Just go long and everything will be fine... right? Yeah, the bulls hope so. I can't blame anyone for buying this pullback as it looks "textbook" perfect to me. In fact I'll be looking at a long if we go down small today and close red a little on the DOW (I think it leads the market) with a decent "bottoming tail" on it. Short term charts will support that too as they are quite oversold from Tuesdays 90 point drop on the SPX.

Chart ONE:

Chart TWO:

Chart Three:

So while the current pattern doesn't have to follow the 1987 pattern day by day it could continue, and if it does then a slightly green close is expected Thursday with a long bottoming tail and long topping tail.  That might suggest a rally up to 2740-2760 SPX intraday and down to 2650-2670 on the downside.

Now afterhours the futures tanked to 2650 so that part is possible... let's see what today brings.  While most all of the "MA" bearish patterns and "WV" bullish patterns work and play out normally... what if this one doesn't?  Be prepared for a lot of pain for the bulls.  Maybe one of the FP's I have will play out to the downside afterall?

CORRECTION: Yesterday's post for December 3rd was titled improperly for December 1st, 2018.

This morning we see the futures down a little as try to reset the overbought 60 minute chart that was created yesterday with the massive gap up Sunday night. Most likely we'll see the gap filled at some point today and then a float back up with the expected light volume. There was a "possible" FP on the SPY yesterday before the open around 9:21 am, which might be the target high this coming Thursday.

It was for 281.00 and that Sunday night gap up high was 281.38, so the FP is a lower high and plays into my guessing that we'll hit it Thursday by the close and setup Friday for a nice drop. By then the daily chart will be quite overbought and ready to drop for a few days. This coming pullback will be the "tell all" for the bears as if they plan on crashing it that move down will be the start of it.

But they've fumbled the ball many times in the past as they had the highest odds of success back in November. Now that we are in December the odds are greatly reduced. I'm not saying it's not possible but odds are certainly lower now then before. Everyone knows that crashes don't happen in December, and that's been the pattern for decades and decades with the stock market.

So unless something political comes out to shake up the month I'd expect this "possible" crash to get pushed out into the new year. Let's face it, the release of good news and bad news is fully controlled so it can certainly be buried until January.... if they choose to do so? There's a lot going on behind the scenes with Trump and his plans to arrest the criminal cabal with the Clinton's, Bushes, and Obama's at the forefront that we'll never hear about.

And as long as these things aren't brought to the light for us sheep to worry about the market can be saved from that disaster. There's been news out of banks being raided and CEO's stepping down in masses of various high profile companies, but so far that's not be pumped by the main stream media as dangerous for the market.

But if that stuff is ever put out there in focus this market will panic. It seems to be under control for now, and I'd guess that was Trump and his team that is keeping it under wraps. The big worry is the ripple effect of the derivatives that the elite created back in the 1980's to setup a full collapse at some point in the future when they were ready.

It will devastate the market and put us into another great depression if it triggers. But can Trump stop them from collapsing it? Clearly he's in a battle against these satanists and seems to winning right now. However, I'm puzzled as to why he's allowing the Fed to raise interest rates and do QT (quantitative tightening) at the same time when the stock market is so overbought.

It's a recipe for disaster... especially if what I talked about in yesterdays post happens in the public eye. Mass arrests of these people can cause them to panic and sell, sell, sell... which might not normally affect the market but many of these criminals are heads of large tech companies (like Apple, Google and Facebook) and others at large banks. It's a shit storm waiting to explode!

Anyway, for now I'm just looking short term and that suggests a light pullback today and a drift up higher in the 281.00 FP by the close on Thursday where I think we'll peak out on this first wave up from the 11/23 low. From there I'd expect a drop into the 2700-2720 zone next week and then a final push up into the end of the year toward 286 SPY zone.

This all assumes any crash it put on hold until after the holidays, and it's looking like that's the plan as if it wasn't the plan then Trump would not have agreed to a 90 hold on Tariffs this past weekend. That agreement caused the 40-50 point rally in the futures and saved the market from a technical breakdown that was expected to happen this week.

But this isn't "uncommon" as we've seen the market get a last minute save time after time in other past similar situations. It's not viewed as healthy in their opinion to let a market naturally correct and instead they keep pumping the bull full of steroids, then cocaine, and crack until he finally crashes... which is of course not health for the people but seems to always benefit the insiders that caused as they come in and buy up everything at extremely oversold levels from the poor sheep in panic mode.

It's happened in the past many times and will happen again. Trump seems to be trying to stop it and maybe he will... don't know? If so then I'd just expect a mild recession next year instead of another great depression like the elite planned. The battle between good and evil rages on it seems...

Yesterday worked out perfectly to match up with 10/02/1987. Today needs a similar close but we need to be green instead of red. That should setup the next big move down as early as Monday. Now, there is another possibility and that's one where the pattern delays by one day... meaning we have a third "spinning top" (doji) type close on Monday (mainly due to the G20 event) and then we start back down hard on Tuesday. So let's keep that in mind as a possibility for those wanting to short at the close today. Patterns rarely match exactly... day for day, so a one day delay could happen.

Now let's break this down into a wave count as well. It's a possible wave count as again I'm not an Elliottwave guru. I'm going to use labels that make sense to me so don't hold that against me as again I'm not an expert on this. The September 21st, 2018 top to the October 29th low is what I'm calling a "Super Large A Wave" down. It broke-down into 5 "Large Waves" which you can figure out for yourself as it's not that important right now. Of course some of those waves broke-down into "Medium Waves" and then "Small Waves", etc... you get the picture.

Let's just start at the bottom of this "Super Large A Wave" down and go from there. The "Super Large B Wave" appears to have topped at on 11/07 at 2815 SPX. Then the "Super Large C Wave" down started. It bottomed at 2631.09 on 11/23, which I'm calling the "Large Wave 1" down inside the "Super Large C Wave" down. From there we started a "Large Wave 2" up, and it may or may not be completed yet? I think it topped with the intraday high of 2753.75 on 11/29 (yesterday).

Here's how I think it broke-down. We had a "Medium Wave A" up (inside "Large Wave 2" up) from that 2631.09 low (11/23) to a 2674.35 high (11/24), then a "Medium Wave B" down into the next morning hitting a low of 2655.89 on 11/27. Yeah, it's a small pullback but it's all I can figure out. The "Medium Wave A" up broke-down into 5 smaller waves from what I can tell on the 10 minute chart. Anyway, the "Medium Wave C" up started from that low and also broke-down into 5 smaller waves... which I think ended with the 2753.75 high yesterday.

So, from 2661.94 on 11/27 to the intraday 2679.05 high you have a "Small Wave 1" up, then "Small Wave 2" down into 2664.41 in the afternoon that day. From there we started the "Small Wave 3" up (inside "Medium Wave C" up, inside "Large Wave 2" up) that seemed to also breakdown again into smaller waves. That first wave up ended at the open on 11/28 at 2697.69, then "Tiny Wave 2" down intraday to 2684.34, where we then started "Tiny Wave 3" up (inside "Small Wave 3" up, inside "Medium Wave C" up, inside "Large Wave 2" up). That was of course the big squeeze wave on the bears that hurt like hell for those caught short.

The "Tiny Wave 3" up seems to have topped at 2744.00 going into the close that day (11/28) and then the "Tiny Wave 4" down hit an intraday low of 2722.94 on 11/29. Then the "Tiny Wave 5" up hit a high of 2753.75 later that afternoon. That should end "Tiny Wave 5" up (inside "Small Wave 3" up, inside "Medium Wave C" up, inside "Large Wave 2" up). It leaves "Small Wave 4" down for today, then "Small Wave 5" up for Monday to complete "Medium Wave C" up inside "Large Wave 2" up... inside "Super Large Wave C" down.

So (if this wave count is correct?) this sets up Tuesday to start "Large Wave 3" down of "Super Large Wave C" down. Naturally it should subdivide into 5 smaller waves (the "Medium", "Small" and "Tiny" ones) but when you get them all aligned together in some wave 3's of C's you have the makings of a crash wave. So while everyone still see's this December as being bullish the wave counts do not agree. Yeah, I guess they could do a whole lot of chop to delay this count until January but I really don't see that as possible.

This multi-combination of wave 3's and wave C's down is likely to happen in the month of December... so bulls beware. You've been saved in the past by the Fed's and their low internet rates and constant buying of the market via QE, but now we have rising interest rates and the Fed withdrawing money via QT. I'm sorry but that doesn't look too me like the typical safety net the bulls are used too. Call me crazy but I still see a crash wave coming this December.

Ok, the bulls put a whipping on the bears yesterday with a huge squeeze up. While I was expecting some light volume float higher I didn't expect it to rally so much. But all is fine as it's playing into the perfect bearish setup for this coming Friday. Basically today would need to pullback some (can also go higher some first) and then close about flat... aka, the "spinning top" candle pattern. Then do the same on Friday and we have a chart pattern similar to 1987 where yesterday was like 10/01/1987, today like 10/02/1987 and Friday like 10/05/1987.

The bears need to hold the bulls back here and not give up much more ground. The prior highs of 2748 on 11/14/2018 and 11/19/2018 should be taken out by the bulls but that should only be for stop runs on the bears. A close back below that zone today and Friday is needed in my opinion to keep the similar pattern as in 1987. Failure to do that and the bulls could explode much higher and even catch that holiday season "year end" rally... which might take them to new all time highs. I give this low odds right now as the bulls need to prove themselves first, and so far all I see is a big short squeeze today. The volume on the SPY was certainly up higher but it looked more like bears capitulating then bulls buying. So I'll still look for a top this coming Friday on this bounce and go from there.