Looks like yesterdays thoughts on the bulls continuing to control the market was right as they put in another nice up day. But today they are up against some tough resistance levels so I don't see this day being like yesterday. A chop drifting sideways day is more likely. Since I think the entire move up from around 2710 on 7/3 some kind of wave 3 then I'm expecting to see a wave 4 appear today or tomorrow.

Most likely we started on 6/28 at around 2694 for a wave 1 up that ended at 2744 on 6/29, then down to 2700 for the wave 2... which then started the wave 3 up, and it subdivided into 5 smaller waves. The first wave 1 up of that wave 3 up went from 2700 to a high of 2745 on 7/3, then down to 2710 for the wave 2 of the wave 3 up. That's where the fun began for the bulls as that's where the wave 3 up of wave 3 up happened. You could subdivide it further but it's not important as it's still a wave 3 of a wave 3 up and that's why it's been so strong.

Now since the move down for the wave 2 of wave 3 up was a normal straight wave pullback I expect the wave 4 down of wave 3 up (yet to happen) to do the opposite. It should take the path of a more sideways move (like a bull flag) or an ABC move. Now this wave 4 down is still inside a wave 3 up, so that means that a wave 5 up of wave 3 up should follow it. So for example let's say that today we drift down about 10 points but it's mostly a sideways pattern. As you know that's a bull flag pattern, which suggests that it will breakout to the upside afterwards.

Ok, so about 10 points down or sideways would put us right into the rising blue trendline of support (was resistance yesterday). From there we'd see the wave 5 up of wave 3 up to breakthrough the June 11th-14th horizontal resistance zone, and most likely move up to the horizontal trendline of resistance around 2814 where the market topped back on 3/13 of this year. That should end all five waves up of this wave 3 up, then next would be a wave 4 down which I'd guess will be an ABC move and one that would be in the 20-30 point range.

Oddly, the rising trendline that the market hit this morning before the open (and backed off) will likely be the pullback target in the future for that wave 4 down. Then there should be a wave 5 up to end the entire 5 wave move from the 6/28 starting point of 2694. I'd guess that would end at the rising green trendline pointing to around 2845 right now. All in all the bulls have this market right now and any drops should be temporary.

Last Friday I guessed that we'd go up to the FP on the SPY within a few days and we actually hit it that day. This morning the rally up continues as we busted through the falling green trendline are and at resistance from the rising blue trendline. Looking at various charts and time frames on the both the ES Futures and the SPX Cash Index I get the feeling this market can go higher still yet. However, on the daily chart of the SPX I see a falling trendline that we should be hitting as soon as we open this morning. So this rally might stall out there today and pullback a little before making another try.

On the SPY the same falling trendline is just a hair over the 277 level, so that's the first important resistance zone at the open. After that there's the prior highs in the 2780 zone (278 SPY) from the 11th-14th of June. I think it's going to boil down to "time" as being the decision maker on whether that horizontal resistance is broken or not. From the looks of the daily SPX the full stochastic appears to have at least 2 more days of room to go on the upside before getting overbought. And the MACD's could extend all week, so this week should be very important for the bulls if they plan on breaking out to the upside and running for the 2800 even number target and/or the current all time high (which I don't see being hit this week).

If I had to guess (and let's face it... that's what I always do), I think the max upside we could see is from two rising trendlines on the SPX that are pointing to around 2840-2855 or so. If we hit that zone this week (BIG "if" in my opinion) that should put every bear to sleep as it's within spitting distance of the all time high... which bears will assume will be up next. However, that a really strong area right now as bulls have many overhead resistance levels to overcome first. I think it's best to just play it day by day and let the bulls first take out 2780, then 2800 before we get excited about some new all time high coming.

I think we'll remain rangebound as I expect either 2780 or 2800 to stop the bull move up and allow for a pullback back into the orange rising trendline pointing just below 2760 this morning. That should be a bounce level for the bulls to try again, but I don't see it hit today... maybe Wednesday or Thursday of this week? Too early to say. From that bounce back up the bulls can try again, and if they fail to reach the high they will likely put in today then I'd expect the next trip down to reach the rising light purple trendline pointing to around 2730 today (it should be up higher though by the time that move down starts, which might not be until next week?).

All in all I'm still seeing a rangebound market. There's just not been a strong enough move down recently to support a super strong rally up to new highs. Bulls need to be flushed out and only scary drop will do it I believe. Failure to shake out the bulls will just lead to lots more chop up and down as we grind up higher until something breaks (up or down?). My plan for today is to watch and see if we can get a small pullback to possibly the falling green trendline (tiny wave 4 down?) and then one more push higher into late today or tomorrow to hit the rising blue trendline that's pointing to about 2780 right now. That's the point I think we'll see a move down to that rising orange trendline start, and were I'd be interested in a short.

Ok gang, this week we have a half day trading on Tuesday and no trading on Wednesday as it's the 4th of July holiday. I don't expect a whole lot this week as the very light volume "should" prevent any serious drops from happening and allow a light float up. So this mornings weakness should be contained above that 2690 area (if it even drops that far?), but on the flip side the light volume should keep the bulls from busting through overhead resistance as well... at least until traders come back and add more volume.

This move down this morning is also making a nice "inverted head and shoulders" pattern which could push prices up to the rising blue trendline and/or the falling green trendline... both pointing to around 2770 currently. This move could start today or tomorrow but I don't see the 2740 zone broken until after the 4th of July when we see a little more volume, like this Thursday or Friday. Today the Fed's are their reverse QT, where they are selling like 18 Billion into the market starting around 1pm EST I believe.

I could be wrong on the number but the bottom line is that this selling could keep any bounces to a minimum in the market until it's finished. That's why I'm leaning more toward tomorrow starting the move up instead of today. As for tomorrow I may or may not do a post? Not sure yet? I'll just play it by ear so to speak and if I think there needs to be another update I'll do one. But if we find a bottom today and put in some positive divergence then that sets up tomorrow to start a move up. So just look for that to happen on the 60 minute chart and you'll have your answer on what to expect next. Naturally they'll be no post on Wednesday.

WOW! What a reversal yesterday... from a strong move up to another flush back down. Crazy markets! I have to say that it caught me off guard as I wasn't expecting it. Now this morning we are down a little more, so possibly this is the bottom forming here before another rally back up? I'm just going to sit today out and not make a forecast as I'm currently lost on the wave count and direction the market is going. But I will add that after the close today they are releasing the releasing the results of the banks stress test. The market is expecting them to pass just fine. If they do then maybe we bottom and see a rally? If they fail then possibly we flush out one more time hard and then rebound just a hard? That's all I have for today... sorry, I'm just out of sync with the market right now.

Yesterday we saw a bounce up from the low that could have be a wave 4 up of a C wave down. But this morning in the premarket action we see the market dropped again to 2705 for a higher low then Mondays low and has since recovered almost back to even as I write up this mornings update. I'd now call yesterdays rally up a A wave of some degree and the drop this morning a B wave, which leaves the sharp move back up to be a C wave.

So it now looks like Monday's noon time bounce was more then likely the wave 4 up of C down and then the rest of that day was the wave 5 down of C down. Meaning (or suggesting, as again I'm not an Elliottwave expert) that the June 13th high down to Monday's low was an ABC that likely ended on Monday. If this is correct then we are in for a multi-day rally that could even take us into all of next week?

It's too early to know for sure but when I look back at all the times we've had sharp drops (like on Monday) that surprised everyone (meaning very few were short the move) the market would go up from that low for quite a long time as every bear was then awake and needed to be put back to sleep before they could drop it hard again. When I look back at similar moves the April 25th low and rally into the 30th could be what we see happen here again this time? A similar move could take us up to the rising blue trendline just under 2760 right now.

It's probably not going to be some super strong rally but more of a slow grind as traders slowly start leaving early for the coming Fourth of July holiday next week (which should also be a super light volume period). So in my humble opinion the low is in for this week and possibly all of next week. Another move down still could happen but with the holidays coming up soon we might not see it until after that's over with? It really depends on how fast they move this market up I think as if they do it too fast the chart will get overbought and then I'd worry about another surprise drop around the holiday when everyone is gone.

It's possible that they pull another fast one on us sheep and drop it hard the day before or after July 4th, but again it's too early to speculate on that now. I'll only say that today looks bullish to me and tomorrow could be same. I don't see the current low from Monday being hit again this week and at least some of next week (if not all of it?).

Surprise, surprise! That nasty drop out of nowhere happened yesterday. And I totally missed it. It now looks to me like it was a wave 3 down inside a wave C... a powerful wave indeed. From that low yesterday we bounced back up some to start the wave 4 up of the C down, and at some point today I suspect we'll end that 4 up and start the 5 down to end the C wave, which ends the ABC down from the recent top on 6/13. Typically we've been seeing wave 5's that truncate short so that's possible here again too.

But that usually happens in a strong uptrend and since we've been in a trading range since January I'd neither call this market in a strong up trend or down trend, but instead call it neutral. Of course the opposite is true on 5th wave too... meaning in a strong down trend the wave 5's that go up are commonly truncated and the ones that go down likely extend. Anyway, for today I think we'll carve out that wave 4 up, which could take all day long. We all know that the large drop yesterday woke up the bears, so everyone is looking for that easy short now.

But SkyNet never makes it easy and always makes it hard. So it's likely to be a chop-fest today as bulls and bears battle it out while SkyNet takes money from both sides. Possibly tomorrow we'll see that 5th wave down happen? Not sure yet but I don't expect it today as that's too easy and SkyNet doesn't do "easy". Another scenario is that the wave 4 up happened yesterday after the early low and was really weak and small. You'll have to look at your shorter time frame charts between around 11 am and 12 pm yesterday (EST) to see that bounce.

If that turns out to be the wave 4 up then the wave 5 down is finished already and we are now in some kind of ABC up or a 5 wave pattern up... not sure which? I'm unsure if that's the case or not but if we don't see that lower low by the close tomorrow for that 5th wave then it's likely already happened. I've found over the years that it's a common thing for SkyNet to trick us sheep with really short and fast wave 2's and/or 4's to make us miss the trade.

Anyway, for today I don't expect a lot. Just some sloppy and tricky moves in both directions most likely... and they shouldn't be anywhere near the size of yesterdays moves. I'll be looking for positive divergence to setup on this 60 minute chart before even thinking about a long, which might not show up until tomorrow? But if so I'd certainly want to play it as we get closer to the 4th of July next week, as volume should get light again as traders go on vacation, which generally leads to a float up in the market. But we'll save that for another day.

Last week the market failed to bounce in the beginning and drop through the upper trendline of the falling channel but later in the day rallied back up in what I thought might be a wave 3 of some kind. But that's clearly wrong as we've dropped again this morning to a lower low. It looks like an ABC move down but I can't be sure at this point? We could also be in the early stages of a wave C or 3 down of some degree. While I think Elliottwave has its' benefits many times it's just a guessing game on the wave counts.

Looking at the MACD's on this 2 hour it's trying to turn back up, and we are at horizontal support in the 2740 area, so a low and bounce might be coming soon... possibly when we hit the lower falling trendline of the channel? On the SPX daily chart the MACD's have rolled over nicely as well as the Histogram bars and Full Stochastic, but it could take all day today and possibly tomorrow before it gets deep enough to bottom. But on the 60 minute chart of the SPX we might have a bounce show up soon as its' MACD's are getting close to the zero line where turns are commonly made. But I don't see the bottom yet as the daily chart suggests there's more room on the down side yet to come.

My best guess is that we do a fake out rally that either puts in a lower high then rolls over for a bigger drop then the current move down from the most recent high around 2790 or we pierce through that area briefly to run some stops and then rollover again. Basically I see a bounce coming soon but I don't know how far it can get with a daily chart that appears peaked on it's upward momentum as MACD's and Stochastic are dropping now. Plus we have a weekly chart of the SPX that is also now overbought and acting like it's ready to roll over soon.

Let's not forget that we are going into the summer months now where the market historically has sell offs happen. I don't know the "when" part but I'm thinking this market is not ready yet to make another all time high but will instead dance around the current 2800 level (+/- 50 points) for a few more weeks at best and then I think we'll see a drop to 2700 or lower.

For today I think we'll do some choppy around but I think there's a bounce coming soon... as in some point today or tomorrow morning. But again we could drift a little lower first before that happens. Not much else to do today but wait and watch for a solid bottom if you want to take a long. And if you want the big short hang in there as I do think it's coming soon.

I spoke about a possibly "inverted head and shoulders" pattern setting up yesterday and that the premarket pullback to the upper trendline of the falling channel was likely some kind of wave 2 down, whereas the wave 1 up started at Tuesdays' low. Well, that wave 2 down didn't stop at that upper falling trendline of support and reverse into a wave 3 up but instead busted through it yesterday and keep falling until near the close of the day. Today we see it back up off that low to almost about the same level as the open was at when the down move of the wave 2 continued yesterday.

However I'm started to question my wave count as at this point it's still not feeling like a wave 3 up. Maybe that's because I feel the wave 2 down yesterday was deeper then I expected? I don't know, but if this is a wave 3 up it should continue grinding higher today and not give back very much. On the flip side if it reverses back down then the bulls could be in for a nasty shakeout as I'd likely have gotten the wave count wrong at that point as the move up from the 6/19 low of 2735 might not be a wave 1 up at all but a B wave up... meaning the top on 6/20 of 2783 was the start of a C wave down, which yesterday would have then put in the low of the wave 1 down of that C down and today's' move up would be the wave 2 of that C down.

That leaves a nasty wave 3 down (and 4 up and 5 down) yet to come to complete that C down. This is a very possible outcome if we don't see this morning rally continue to go up all day and take out that 2783 high to suggest that we are in a wave 3 up as the first wave count I've discussed suggests. That scenario two (my second wave count I've spoke of) is the scary one for the bulls and I just don't know which scenario is accurate? However, considering today is a Friday I don't think they will roll it over and drop it hard into that second scenario today.

Odds are good that we'll hold these gains to close out this week... meaning I don't see that sharp drop happening today or the run up to take out the 2783 high as scenario one suggests. I think it's going to be left as "unknown" as this week closes out and we'll have to re-evaluate next Monday where we are at. Overall though I still feel like we need that final "stop run" on the bears over the 2800 level by a few points before heading south hard.

So that leans me more bullish into early next week then bearish, with the thoughts that at some point we'll make that move over 2800 to run those stops. I don't know how high of course? I've been suggesting 2820-2840 but honestly that's just a "best guess", as it will really just be determined by how many stops are overhead of that level that SkyNet decides to run. Maybe it only hits 2810... don't know? We'll cross that bridge when we get there I guess. Have a great weekend.

Yesterday (I didn't do a post so don't think you missed it) the market mostly chopped around and held it's small gains until the close. This morning we see it continued up afterhours and then dropped during the premarket. It looks like a wave 1 up and wave 2 down to me, which backtested the top trendline of the falling channel and bounced back up some from it. It also makes a nice and clean looking "Inverted Head and Shoulders" pattern with that backtest being the right shoulder and the low on Tuesday being the Head.

So if this pattern plays out we should see that 2800+ level hit... the "when" part though is tough to figure out. But I'd say it should be soon. If the wave count is correct the next move up would be a wave 3 of some degree. I've looked at others who do wave counting better then me and most seem to think this is a wave 5 up as I've discussed in prior morning updates. Just to recap that, this wave 5 up starts at the 6/19 low of 2735 where the wave 4 down ended... and it started at the 2796 high on 6/13. I'm not going to go over all those bigger picture waves now as you can look back at prior posts to read them as they haven't changed.

I'll just say that this wave 5 up should be the last wave (which again we had the wave 1 up inside it end last night, the wave 2 down this morning and appear to be starting the wave 3 up as I write this update) to end the very large B wave up from the February 9th low. The A down was of course from the January 26th high to that low and it was about 350 points in total. So after this final wave up ends (possibly in the 2820-2840 area?) we should be starting that very large C wave down.

How far could it go is anyone's guess but if it just equaled the A down that would be another 350 points, but many times the C down is some multiple of the A, like 1.618% or even as high as 2.618%... and that's some scary numbers! If it's just the lower percent then that's about 566 points down from a likely top in the 2820 or so area. The higher number is super scary as it would certainly put us in a bear market for sure. It would be about a 916 point drop! Yeah, that's crazy! Imagine dropping back down to below the 2000 level briefly, which we finally broke up through it in 2016 after a long time of consolidation.

Hopefully that doesn't happen but anything is possible. For now though we'll just play it day by day as that's too far out into the future to worry about now. The futures have reversed back down again as I've been writing this morning update so possibly that wave 2 down isn't done yet or needs to retest the top falling trendline of the channel before turning back up? In any case I do think we still have more up yet to come... but likely more then a week or so from the looks of the daily charts on the SPX as it's getting very toppy looking.

Looks like the futures finally broke down after a series of wave 1's down and wave 2's up. Odds are that the last series of 1's and 2's were inside a C wave down and that's what we are in right now premarket. The bounce back up from a low of 2735.75 is probably the wave 4 inside that C down. So at some point today we should see a wave 5 down of C down to finish this move. It will probably just do a double bottom test but it can break lower then the current low as many wave 5's do. That would be the point where I'd expect a rally back up to start.

However, the first move back up should be a wave 1 up of a new series of 5 waves and a wave 2 down could be a deep one as trapped longs use that first move up to exit in fear. Meaning... today could be a crazy day with wild swings up and down to complete wave patterns and shake out both longs and shorts. I'm 50/50 on whether the wave 5 down ends early in the morning session or takes until the close. But I would not go long until I see that retest of the current low for that wave 5 down to end this C wave.

And lets not forget that the daily chart of the SPX is quite overbought so this move up that should come after the 5th wave down of C down ends might be a short lived one. Meaning there's no guarantee that it will get back up to the 2790's again where horizontal resistance stopped the bulls all of last week. My thinking is that it will hit that brick wall and back off some, then hit it again and back off again... and finally it will pick one day to pop through it and run all the bears' stops.

Target would still be the 2820-2840 area and we could see that by this Friday or early next week. It should be the last wave up from the April 2nd low which started the 5 wave series. I believe the wave one ended on April 18th, which started the ABC down to make the wave 2. That ended on May 3rd which started the 5 wave series up for a wave 3... and that ended around June 13th with the 2795 high. From there we should be in a wave 4 down. I broke all this down in yesterday's post as well but wanted to repeat it today. This wave 4 down seems to have divided into an ABC pattern (some extra waves in there but that's as close as I can guess?), and the big drop after-hours is the wave 3 down inside the C down of that wave 4 down.

Gets confusing which is why I don't focus too much on Elliottwave but it does have it's plus's and works well when you get the wave count correct... LOL! Anyway, just look for one more wave down today to end this series of waves down from the recent 2795 high. Then a rally up should follow the rest of the week. I suspect it will be choppy as there's strong resistance at the 2800 level. But I do think they will bust through it late this week or early next. It's not about how overbought we'll be (and currently are), it's about running the stops on the bears before they drop it hard again.

So don't get mad when you see it pop up to 2820-2840 as that's part of it. Just be ready to start shorting that zone... especially if the wave counts all point to that particular wave being some final 5th wave up. Anyway, that's what I see for today and the next week or so. Put simply, expect this premarkets' low to be retested and then a series of complex wave up into the 2800 resistance zone the rest of this week. The one day this week or early next expect it to bust through and run the stops.

Looks like the series of wave 1's down and wave 2's up has finally broken-down and produced a drop to the bottom of the sideways trading zone from the past few days. If it breaks it then I'd call it a wave 3 or C wave down. But I have to say that odds of a scary 100 point drop are low now. There's been too much time gone by in my opinion, which worked off a lot of the overbought condition with various time frame charts. There's not really any negative divergence yet on them either.

I'm starting to think that the best the bears will see is a move down toward that 2740-2750 area of support... which we could see today or on Monday by the close. And since the short term charts are back to neutral now they could be oversold by then, and that should result in another rally up. It's starting to look like this pullback is some kind of wave 4 down with a wave 5 up yet to come. Wave 5's can breakdown into 5 smaller waves or just be one short wave... no way to really know for sure?

My guess is that the wave 5 up will reach a double top (probably shy of it a few points) and then we'll see a nice ABC move down. But I don't think at this point that we are going to see some 100 point scary drop happen, at least not all in one day. Maybe the ABC down produces 100 points in total but it should take a week or more to happen. That's out in July sometime most likely so let's not even go there until it's closer. For now I think we'll drift down into Monday for a low before a strong rally back up starts. Have a great weekend.

The action yesterday after the FOMC meeting was kinda muted if you ask me. But then again we haven't seen any wild swing days in a long time, so I guess that was to be expected. The 2790 area seems to be holding the bulls back for now but I don't know how long this can continue? If the bulls were smart they would allow 3-4 days in a row of red closes to get the charts back to neutral or oversold (depends on how deep the pullbacks are?) where they could make another run up higher with strength.

They look tired to me right now as the volume is very weak. They need bears to squeeze and I have to say that it's not looking like there's very many bears out there with short positions on... otherwise the bulls could have squeezed through 2790 hard and fast. My guess is that bears are waiting at 2800 to short or have already done so with just a few points over that area as their stops. That does help the bulls as if they can get past the 2790 they can't reach those stops to run them.

There was a small move down into the close yesterday, which continued into afterhours, but this premarket it has reversed back up again. If the market can carve out a series of these wave 1's down and wave 2's up and not breakthrough that 2790 cleanly (a pierce would be OK but it shouldn't be high enough to run those stops just a little over 2800), then at some point we should see a breakdown for a wave 3 of some degree. It doesn't look like it's going to happen today so I'm still neutral at this point. Like I said, a slow drift down into that 2740-2750 for 3-4 days could reset the charts back to neutral and the bulls could make another run up higher. But we'd need to close red for those 3-4 days too as that skews the odds that the next day will close green.

Closing red one day, green the next, back to red and green again would just be neutral as it would be considered chop. However, if those days setup a nice series of 1 and 2 wave (again, without taking out 2790 by more then a pierce) then we might see a large wave 3 down appear. It could also be a wave C, it will depend on whether the market takes a 5 wave series down or 3 wave series? I can't know that until afterwards. Regardless of which it's common for the wave 3 or C to subdivide into 5 waves and I'll be looking to catch the 3 of that wave.

Anyway, that's what I'm looking for to setup over the next few days. Maybe it happens by tomorrow or maybe Monday but a breakout or breakdown is coming soon. Which I don't know but I'm leaning bearish versus bullish but I won't hesitate to go long if that's the setup we get in the next few days. A move down into that 2740-2750 area would support a wave count suggesting the move up from the 2676 low on 5/29 to the high yesterday was a wave 3 up and the drop into 2740 area would then be a wave 4 down. That leaves a wave 5 up to end the wave series before a nice pullback can happen.

But I'm thinking that move up from 2676 was a wave 5 that ended the whole series and is now allowing for a nice pullback to setup. Whether it's an ABC down or 5 wave series isn't important. I just want to do my best to catch the wave 3 down inside the C down (or 3 down?). That's the goal! It could turn out to be a 100 point move in total (or more?) if this is the correct wave count? Don't know as I'm not an expert at Elliottwave but I'm patient and will just take whatever the market gives me.

We are finally seeing some weakness this morning with yesterdays pullback continuing into this morning, breaking the rising brown trendline of support. It's rallying back up this morning trying to backtest the breakdown point from the looks of it. It's looking like a clean ABC wave 4 down from the high yesterday. So if you start at the 5/29 low of 2676 you have a wave 1 up into the 5/30 high of 2729, then an ABC down for wave 2 to bottom at 2704 on 5/31, and the the long ride up for the wave 3 into yesterdays high of 2779. It's a very clean wave pattern so far, which suggests the rally up today is the start of the wave 5 up to end the whole 5 wave move.

No one can really predict how long or far a wave 5 can go as some end really fast and short, falling shy of the wave 3 high. Those are the truncated wave 5's. Then there are the wave 5's that subdivide into 5 more smaller waves and match the length of the wave 3 in points, or even go beyond that distance. With wave 3 starting at 2704 and ending at 2779 we have a total of 75 points. So if wave 5 does the same it will reach 75 points higher then the wave 4 low, which right now could be the premarket bottom of 2751? Too early to know for sure the the wave 4 down is complete as we could retest that level today and break it. But if that is the low then 75 points higher puts us at 2826 on the ES Futures.

The clue today to help us figure out whether it's going to be a long wave up or a truncated short one should be where they stop it at by the close today. If it's up today and appears just a few points below the high yesterday then the backtest of the rising brown trendline is likely all they will get and at that point I'd think it's a truncated wave 5. Therefore we should drop on Monday. But if we go down today toward retesting that premarket low, then we close in the red as well, then I'd lean toward the 5th wave up as not started yet and look for that wave 4 down to find a bottom by the close today or even Monday. Maybe the bulls want to take it higher but need more bears to squeeze?

If so they should retest the 2740 area of great prior resistance but now it's support. That should get enough bears on board for another squeeze up on Tuesday to end the wave 5 at least at a double top from yesterday, but probably more. If 2740 becomes the low of this wave 4 down then 75 points up on that would be 2815, just slightly higher then the current wave 3 up top of 2779, and the same length of that wave 3. That could be the plan as well? So, to summarize... down today with a red close leans toward the wave 4 down as "still in play", which might continue into Monday before the wave 5 up squeeze all day Tuesday to end the whole five wave pattern up from the 5/29 low.

Then we should drop on Wednesday of next week to start a new series of waves down. But if the bulls don't back off today and rally up into the close where we end up green for the day and near the high yesterday then I'll lean toward that being a completed wave 5 up and look for a drop to start on Monday. My plan is to short the close if we go up and truncate this wave 5, or to wait until next Tuesday for the wave 5 up to end if we drop all day and close red. I may even go long at the low on Monday for the wave 5 up squeeze? Too early to know for sure but that's my plan of action. Have a great weekend and good luck.

P.S. There's an FOMC meeting next week on the 12th/13th, which if this wave 5 up extends into Tuesday/Wednesday it could end just before the meeting? Possibly that's the top and some surprise event by them will be blamed on the coming drop... like another interest rate hike?