Read the heatmaps….red mean bearish, deeper red means deeper bearish. Blue mean bullish…. Tan means indeterminate, not many charts broke out or even bulls and bears, or both.
Although that chart is a little bit too confusing for me to understand. As long you can read it is all that matters. I'm glad to see someone else that thinks we are about to go down… not up like a lot of people are forecasting.
Chart of Chart Midweek Update This is a first ever midweek update.
It takes less than 10 minutes for me to review counts of bullish and bearish charts, but takes quite a bit of time to create the multichart compilation I call Chart of Charts.
After my quick review I decided to publish today, since any unusual event happened today. The 20 Day Moving Average of Bulls and Bears did a crossover today, to the Bearish. Somewhat odd, since today a large number of bear and bull chart both brokeout. However, a prior 20 day ago larger bullish count fell off the moving average, and since the bear average was low, the number of bear breakouts today pushed the average up, thus creating the crossover.
So don't get too all excited for the bearish case. Particularly since the 5DMA and the 10DMA have both outperformed the 20DMA. From memory, the 5DMA had a 58% annualized rate of return on betting the crossovers, and the 10DMA about 52%. The 20DMA, because of the whipsaw nature of the market and in particular a slow reaction to the V bottom in March performed at more like 28%.
The 10DMA still says bear.
Refer to my previous chart a few days prior that has more annotations to help you understand the 3 layer heatmap which is intended to not just provided bear bull signals, but levels of how to scale into and out of bullish to bearish position and vice-versa.
The IHS pattern mentioned last week has been satisfied on it's measured move. All that says is don't expect more upward movement BASED ON the IHS. Other factors will not determine up or down.
Volatility remains high. The number of stocks ready to breakout is a relatively large number.
I don't think we will make to 11k yet JoeMarc. Wednesday should be up as it's a holiday and that means light volume. But, Thursday and Friday should bring in some selling.
Maybe after opx next week, the market could make another run for 11k? But, I don't see it right now.
But, it's hard to take the emotion out the trade. I knew we would rally up some… but not this high. I'm expecting tomorrow to be up too, as it's a holiday and that means light volume. So, it should float up like a balloon full of hot gas.. waiting for the news on Thursday and Friday to pop it.
Hi, bulls are in power, were going to hit 11k. Histogram above 0 on 60min charts. Will need the BKX and USO to particiopate and SPY. . We passed 1075 so theres big risk to short. I would wait….. Mind you, I took profits on AGU, BCE, TD,,,a tad early…. Great article Dragon, I enjoy your site.
well said, I as well will be exiting some longs. Not sure though if we trend down till ate NOV and then rise into DEC
Thanks
Joe
Read the heatmaps….red mean bearish, deeper red means deeper bearish. Blue mean bullish….
Tan means indeterminate, not many charts broke out or even bulls and bears, or both.
Thanks for the update Steveo…
Although that chart is a little bit too confusing for me to understand. As long you can read it is all that matters. I'm glad to see someone else that thinks we are about to go down… not up like a lot of people are forecasting.
Red
Chart of Chart Midweek Update
This is a first ever midweek update.
It takes less than 10 minutes for me to review counts of bullish and bearish charts, but takes quite a bit of time to create the multichart compilation I call Chart of Charts.
After my quick review I decided to publish today, since any unusual event happened today. The 20 Day Moving Average of Bulls and Bears did a crossover today, to the Bearish. Somewhat odd, since today a large number of bear and bull chart both brokeout. However, a prior 20 day ago larger bullish count fell off the moving average, and since the bear average was low, the number of bear breakouts today pushed the average up, thus creating the crossover.
So don't get too all excited for the bearish case. Particularly since the 5DMA and the 10DMA have both outperformed the 20DMA. From memory, the 5DMA had a 58% annualized rate of return on betting the crossovers, and the 10DMA about 52%. The 20DMA, because of the whipsaw nature of the market and in particular a slow reaction to the V bottom in March performed at more like 28%.
The 10DMA still says bear.
Refer to my previous chart a few days prior that has more annotations to help you understand the 3 layer heatmap which is intended to not just provided bear bull signals, but levels of how to scale into and out of bullish to bearish position and vice-versa.
The IHS pattern mentioned last week has been satisfied on it's measured move. All that says is don't expect more upward movement BASED ON the IHS. Other factors will not determine up or down.
Volatility remains high. The number of stocks ready to breakout is a relatively large number.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/11/chart-o…
I don't think we will make to 11k yet JoeMarc. Wednesday should be up as it's a holiday and that means light volume. But, Thursday and Friday should bring in some selling.
Maybe after opx next week, the market could make another run for 11k? But, I don't see it right now.
Red
I agree Jay…
But, it's hard to take the emotion out the trade. I knew we would rally up some… but not this high. I'm expecting tomorrow to be up too, as it's a holiday and that means light volume. So, it should float up like a balloon full of hot gas.. waiting for the news on Thursday and Friday to pop it.
We BOTH really should have seen it coming but got distracted by friday
Jay
Hi, bulls are in power, were going to hit 11k. Histogram above 0 on 60min charts. Will need the BKX and USO to particiopate and SPY. . We passed 1075 so theres big risk to short. I would wait….. Mind you, I took profits on AGU, BCE, TD,,,a tad early….
Great article Dragon, I enjoy your site.
Thanks
Joseph
Toronto Canada
I'm glad you like the pic's of Obama… I mean a monkey. Monday's post picture should have Obama in it instead of the little boy. LOL!
Red
Love that pic you have up there. LOL It would be truly funny if it isn't so tragic.