Special Video Update…

Time to piece it all together...

Ok, I did some brain storming and I see 2 possible outcomes ahead.  One has us going up to DIA 118.16 and topping out around September 9th-20th as that's when the Legatus Meeting is happening for this fall.  The last meeting was February 4th-6th, 2010... and that's when we bottomed out.  They injected stimulus package part two, and up the market went until the April high.

So, do we go up first... maybe?  But that would setup the market for a huge crash down, from a much higher level.  While it's possible to go up into the Legatus Pilgrimage this fall, I tend to think we are going down into that time frame, and will hit the 8300 print during that event.

Once we hit it, we should go back up for a wave 4 for a little while, and then back down again into the December 7th time frame.  This would put the SPX at 725 or so, and should complete wave 5 down of a larger wave 1 move.  We should go up into next year, but at some point within the next few years, we are going to reach our final bottom of 20.16 SPY.  (How's that for scary?)

So, when will DIA 118.16 be hit, and will it?  Once inflation comes into play, we could see Dow 38,000 like Mahendra predicts.  Who knows that far down the line?  But for now, let's focus on tomorrow and the next few weeks first.

Tomorrow is a huge day in the market, and should it be bad jobs data then I could easily see the 107 area FP hit all in one day.  I'm 70-80% bearish right now, but only based on my gut feelings (which are wrong a lot... LOL), not because the charts, which still look bullish.  Plus the fall pilgrimage could be a high this time... not a low.  And don't forget that the DIA 118.16 will eventually play out.  Will we do it now, while we are close to it?  Or, is it for next year some time?

I'm leaning toward the downside first, with the 107 FP being tomorrow's target.  This is just speculation here folks... the charts are still bullish.  If we go down, then I'd expect a bounce at that level.  At that point I'd have too look at the charts again to see if we are going to continue down, or turn back up and go for 118.16 dia.

If we go up tomorrow, then we could be going to the 118.16 print into the September 9th-20th time frame.  The charts can roll over at any time right now.  They are still bullish, but at extreme levels right now.  This is a very tricky place to be in, as that weekly chart tells me that we are going up to 118.16 FP first... which would set up a once in a lifetime shorting opportunity during the fall pilgrimage.

But other things tell me we are going to sell off first.  I have no idea which one is right, but I cover both in the video... and focus on the bearish case the most.  Just don't rule out the bullish case here, as the charts are not supporting my bearish case right now.

So be prepared to go long up to dia 118.16 into September the 9th-20th... should the charts push up higher.  I'm bearish by nature, and it clouds my judgment sometimes... so don't take again as "written in stone"...

Good luck to everyone...

Red

Author: Red