Good Ol' SkyNet sure loves to play tricks on me as we had an early flush down yesterday on the QQQ to get close to the FP at 441.00, but stopped short about a point and went sideways the rest of the day making a bear flag. I told everyone in the chatroom to look for a late day flush from that bear flag to hit the FP, where I was planning on getting long.
Then out of nowhere we had a squeeze up the last hour instead... what a sneaky move! I did not get long as I trust the FP's and was patiently waiting for it to be hit before I take the next trade. It did this sneaky move before on Monday (from last Friday's FP) when it got close to hitting the higher FP on the QQQ at 443.44, but again failed and rallied up late in the day into the close. Then on Tuesday morning it dropped to hit and pierce the FP and the reversed back up the rest of the day. Tuesday morning also gave us the new upside FP as well, which again failed to hit it that day and instead hit in on Wednesday morning. Here's that chart...
Now we wait on the deeper FP from after the close on Monday to get hit, which is 441.00, and if it's hit today then I'll get long as I'd expect to see us rally hard next week and hopefully hit my FET of 5334 on the ES and 5296 on the SPX... and pierce though them by some amount. I'd love to see 30-50 point overthrow on those targets in the solar eclipse the following Monday, April the 8th as I think that will be a good short if this play out.
I might have already been long if I didn't catch the fake prints but I've been tracking them now since 2010 when I saw my first one, so I know they work. Patience is the key here to be a winner as everything tells me we will hit the lowest one before a strong multi day rally starts.
Obviously the 2 day rally up Wednesday and Thursday is still possible, but I don't see it now because of the failure to hit the downside FP and the move up late in the day yesterday was nice, but not what I would call the start of a 2 day squeeze. So that's likely off the table now, meaning that once we hit the FP we should turn back up and rally hard all of next week. It won't stop at 2 days I don't think. We've spent an entire week of "basing" in what is a bull flag. It will breakout and when it does it will rally for a week or so from this strong base.
In conclusion I still think we hit the downside FP, and probably today (possibly next Monday but I doubt it). Then a 100-150 point rally should follow in all of next week.
Happy a happy Easter. Jesus is my Savior, and yours too.
The market finally made a closing high on a final day of the week and the window is closing for the same cycle last seen during the Covid crash of 2020. I was looking for something similar to what the Nikkei experienced a couple of weeks ago if we didn’t make a new high. We still might get it. The market topped on December 28th, 3 months ago.
We gapped up big on the first of the month last month. Is that going to happen again to start April? 1929 saw the market make a high on the 1st day of the month (September) but it shouldn’t do that for some flower moon denouement. Still we’re a few days away from generating strong sell signals. And the market tends to hold up until the sell signals get generated.
We also have an easy monthly reversal set up.
The Dax has an extreme RSI so it should get a Nikkei like move from a few weeks ago. The SP 500 weekly RSI is at levels seen by the Nasdaq on March 13, 2000. TheNasdaq is lagging the SP. It didn’t make a new high with the SP yesterday.
Next important turn dates are April 8th, April 21st, and May 2nd. I don’t see any crash coming but one of those turn dates could produce the much needed correction that we’ve all be looking for. I mean 5-10% basically.