How to stop the next Bernie Madoff

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August 18, 2016

Financial regulators cant do their jobs because they are still using 1930s technology to fight digital crime. Whats needed is data reform and fast

During the fallout of the Madoff Ponzi scheme, the Securities and Exchange Commissions inspector general issued a scathing report on why the agency failed to detect the massive fraud. One of its most damning findings was that multiple SEC offices simultaneously scrutinized Madoff without even realizing it.

From 1992 to 2008, the SEC received at least six complaints about Madoffs firm that should have outed his fraud. The agency conducted two investigations and three examinations over the years. But the left hand didn't know what the right was doing. At one point, according to the inspector general, two examinations were open at the same time in different offices without either knowing the other one was conducting an identical examination. Madoff slipped through the cracks, and Americans lost billions of dollars.

This fraudster was able to fool financial regulators because they are still using 1930s pen and paper technology to handle today's digital challenges. This hurts investors, markets and the regulators own missions. And that's why, along with some 34 other members of the House of Representatives, I am a sponsor of the Financial Transparency Act, HR 2477.

For the most part, the major regulators collect information as plaintext documents, rather than searchable, open data. Many of these documents date back to post-stock market crash compliance regulations passed during the Great Depression.

The SEC alone requires public companies, mutual funds and other entities to file hundreds of different forms, including Exhibit 21, which requires public companies to identify all subsidiaries. Most are uploaded as PDF documents, from which it is notoriously difficult to retrieve valuable information. Some tech companies try using a tedious workaround to extract data from PDFs known as scraping, but it is unreliable. In addition, the SEC still lacks a consistent identification code for each entity it regulates to allow it to quickly view a firms filings, history, and external data sources.

Repeat this same collection process across eight major financial agencies, hundreds of reporting systems, thousands of forms and the scope of the problem becomes clear and a legislative solution is needed.

The Financial Transparency Act requires each of the nine main financial regulators to adopt consistent data fields and formats for the information they are collecting under existing laws.

For certain crucial data fields like identifying regulated entities the Financial Transparency Act also pushes the regulating agencies to coordinate with each other and adopt the same identification code.

Such data standards would create a myriad of benefits.

If the regulators adopted consistent data fields and formats for the information they already collect, instead of using PDF documents, they would have a better chance of catching fraudsters like Bernie Madoff and would make better decisions in crises.

In addition, data standards would help financial regulators more easily detect risk.

In the 1990s, the IRS and state tax authorities worked together to create consistent data fields and formats for individual tax returns. That is what made it possible for companies like Intuit to invent software like TurboTax which is used by many Americans each tax season.

If financial regulators switched from documents to data, then existing software could help banks, public companies and other financial firms automate compliance efforts, just as TurboTax does today for taxpayers.

In fact, if several regulators adopted the same fields and formats, then software could consolidate reporting tasks to all of them. Standardizing data to consolidate reports to multiple regulators is already happening in Australia, the Netherlands, the UK and elsewhere. The United States needs to catch up.

Dumping documents for data would also create new opportunities for the tech industry. Technology firms could republish financial data for investors decisions, analyze it to find hidden risk, and automate reporting to reduce compliance costs.

Why haven't our regulators already figured this out? As the bureaucratic adage goes: Its not my job.

For example, as Commissioner Kara Stein has pointed out, the SEC has no chief data officer responsible for surveying the agency's whole data landscape. Instead, responsibility for data is split between all the dozens of different offices that handle the agency's different reporting regimes.

But there is precedent for a legislative solution like the Financial Transparency Act to bring our regulators into the 21st Century. In 2014 Congress unanimously passed, and President Obama signed, the Data Act which mandates a single, government-wide data structure for federal government spending information. The Data Act means better transparency for taxpayers, better internal government management and automatic reporting for grantees and contractors.

Think of the Financial Transparency Act as a Data Act for financial regulation. It isn't about collecting more or different information from the financial industry and consumers. The federal government already collects enough information on Americans as it is. Instead, this legislation makes better use of the information already being collected, and collects it more efficiently. This improves transparency and cuts down on time consumers and businesses spend each year on unnecessary paperwork.

As seen in the Madoff debacle, the backwardness of US regulators isnt just an embarrassing contrast to the data-driven industry they are supposed to protect. Its actively harming our investors, markets and consumers.

That's why the transformation of financial regulation from outdated documents into searchable data will be good news for those who report or use it. Better decisions by investors and regulators, and lower compliance costs, will translate to faster economic growth and greater consumer confidence in our economy.

I urge my colleagues and the financial industry to get behind the Financial Transparency Act, and help get us into the digital century.

Powerful NSA hacking tools have been revealed online

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August 18, 2016

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Powerful NSA hacking tools have been revealed online

Some of the most powerful espionage tools created by the National Security Agency’s elite group of hackers have been revealed in recent days, a development that could pose severe consequences for the spy agency’s operations and the security of government and corporate computers.

A cache of hacking tools with code names such as Epicbanana, Buzzdirection and Egregiousblunder appeared mysteriously online over the weekend, setting the security world abuzz with speculation over whether the material was legitimate.

The file appeared to be real, according to former NSA personnel who worked in the agency’s hacking division, known as Tailored Access Operations (TAO).

“Without a doubt, they’re the keys to the kingdom,” said one former TAO employee, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal operations. “The stuff you’re talking about would undermine the security of a lot of major government and corporate networks both here and abroad.”

Said a second former TAO hacker who saw the file: “From what I saw, there was no doubt in my mind that it was legitimate.”

The file contained 300 megabytes of information, including several “exploits,” or tools for taking control of firewalls in order to control a network, and a number of implants that might, for instance, exfiltrate or modify information.

The exploits are not run-of-the-mill tools to target everyday individuals. They are expensive software used to take over firewalls, such as Cisco and Fortinet, that are used “in the largest and most critical commercial, educational and government agencies around the world,” said Blake Darche, another former TAO operator and now head of security research at Area 1 Security.

The software apparently dates back to 2013 and appears to have been taken then, experts said, citing file creation dates, among other things.

“What’s clear is that these are highly sophisticated and authentic hacking tools,” said Oren Falkowitz, chief executive of Area 1 Security and another former TAO employee.

Several of the exploits were pieces of computer code that took advantage of “zero-day” or previously unknown flaws or vulnerabilities in firewalls, which appear to be unfixed to this day, said one of the former hackers.

The disclosure of the file means that at least one other party — possibly another country’s spy agency — has had access to the same hacking tools used by the NSA and could deploy them against organizations that are using vulnerable routers and firewalls. It might also see what the NSA is targeting and spying on. And now that the tools are public, as long as the flaws remain unpatched, other hackers can take advantage of them, too.

The NSA did not respond to requests for comment.

“Faking this information would be monumentally difficult, there is just such a sheer volume of meaningful stuff,” Nicholas Weaver, a computer security researcher at the University of California at Berkeley, said in an interview. “Much of this code should never leave the NSA.”

The tools were posted by a group calling itself the Shadow Brokers using file-sharing sites such as BitTorrent and DropBox.

As is typical in such cases, the true identity of whoever put the tools online remains hidden. Attached to the cache was an “auction” note that purported to be selling a second set of tools to the highest bidder: “!!! Attention government sponsors of cyber warfare and those who profit from it !!!! How much you pay for enemies cyber weapons?”

The group also said that if the auction raised 1 million bitcoins — equivalent to roughly $500 million — it would release the second file to the world.

The auction “is a joke,” Weaver said. “It’s designed to distract. It’s total nonsense.” He said that “bitcoin is so traceable that a Doctor Evil scheme of laundering $1 million, let alone $500 million, is frankly lunacy.”

One of the former TAO operators said he suspected that whoever found the tools doesn’t have everything. “The stuff they have there is super-duper interesting, but it is by far not the most interesting stuff in the tool set,” he said. “If you had the rest of it, you’d be leading off with that, because you’d be commanding a much higher rate.”

TAO, a secretive unit that helped craft the digital weapon known as Stuxnet, has grown in the past decade or so from several hundred to more than 2,000 personnel at the NSA’s Fort Meade, Md., headquarters. The group dates to the early 1990s. Its moniker, Tailored Access Organization, suggests a precision of technique that some officials have likened to brain surgery. Its name also reflects how coding whizzes create exquisite tools from scratch, in the same way a fine tailor takes a bolt of wool and fashions a bespoke suit — only the computer geeks more often work in jeans and T-shirts. “We break out the Nerf guns and have epic Nerf gun fights,” one of the former hackers said.

Some former agency employees suspect that the leak was the result of a mistake by an NSA operator, rather than a successful hack by a foreign government of the agency’s infrastructure.

When NSA personnel hack foreign computers, they don’t move directly from their own covert systems to the targets’, fearing that the attack would be too easy to trace. They use a form of proxy server called a “redirector” that masks the hackers’ origin. They use one or more such servers to make it difficult to trace a hack.

“NSA is often lurking undetected for years on the . . . [proxy hops] of state hackers,” former agency contractor Edward Snowden tweeted Tuesday. “This is how we follow their operations.”

At the same time, other spy services, like Russia’s, are doing the same thing to the United States.

It is not unprecedented for a TAO operator to accidentally upload a large file of tools to a redirector, one of the former employees said. “What’s unprecedented is to not realize you made a mistake,” he said. “You would recognize, ‘Oops, I uploaded that set’ and delete it.”

Critics of the NSA have suspected that the agency, when it discovers a software vulnerability, frequently does not disclose it, thereby putting at risk the cybersecurity of anyone using that product. The file disclosure shows why it’s important to tell software-makers when flaws are detected, rather than keeping them secret, one of the former agency employees said, because now the information is public, available for anyone to employ to hack widely used Internet infrastructure.

Snowden, Weaver and some of the former NSA hackers say they suspect Russian involvement in the release of the cache, though no one has offered hard evidence. They say the timing — in the wake of high-profile disclosures of Russian government hacking of the Democratic National Committee and other party organizations — is notable.

Tweeted Snowden: “Circumstantial evidence and conventional wisdom indicates Russian responsibility.” He said that the disclosure “is likely a warning that someone can prove U.S. responsibility for any attacks that originated from this” redirector or malware server by linking it to the NSA.

“This could have significant foreign policy consequences,” he said in another tweet. “Particularly if any of those operations targeted U.S. allies” or their elections.

“Accordingly,” he tweeted, “this may be an effort to influence the calculus of decision-makers wondering how sharply to respond to the DNC hacks.”

In other words, he tweeted, it looks like “somebody sending a message” that retaliating against Russia for its hacks of the political organizations “could get messy fast.”

ES Morning Update August 18th 2016

Reds Daily Updates

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August 18, 2016

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Note: The 214.25 FP on the SPY from August 4th comes in around this 2141.50 low on August 2nd, which tells me it will be revisited.

Charts are mixed this morning but look like they want to go down early in the day and turn back up later in the day. If the move up from the low yesterday and sideways trading after-hours counts as a pattern it looks like a weak bull flag. And since we've had extremely like volume that favors the bulls we have to be cautious on any short and lean toward the bull flag working. If it does then we should go back up and retest the prior high of 2190... whether we pierce it or not is unknown. But with the market wanting that 2200 level so bad I have to keep letting it try until it's obvious that it's fail and won't try again. When that be obvious you ask? When we break that 2140 support zone is the answer. Until then we are still stuck in a tight trading zone.

Now with that FP on the SPY from last week of 214.25 that could be our sign that they do plan to retest that 2140 ES Futures zone at some point soon. The when part is unknown but it could come as early as Friday, but I'm still leaning toward them going up first to retest the all time highs. Then after that happens we "could" see a late day sell off on Friday, but early next week would be more likely as a time frame to hit that FP. Back to today's expected move I'll stick will some downward pressure early in the day and depending on how much of a pullback we get I'd then expect a late day rally. This would be best for the bulls I think. If they decide to rally up first without some early morning pullback I'd view that as bearish later in the day and expect a drop Friday morning or into the close today.

Basically we are still stuck in a zone where the market wants to go up to 2200 and is trying not to break the 2160 support zone (that's a wide zone from 2150 to 2170, but you get the idea... it's the trading zone we've been in for a month now). So I would not short here or go long (not that I'd go long anyway up this high... at least not for a position trade, maybe a day trade?). I'm more interesting in wait for the short "position" trade to setup. If we could "pin" the SPY at 220 tomorrow and maybe Apple at 110 I'd be very interested in some type of short over the weekend, but in a credit spread of some type to take advantage of the natural weekend decay. Other then that there's no apparent position trades for today, only day trades.

Soros sent an email to Hillary Clinton about Albania..Clinton did exactly what she was told

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August 17, 2016

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Soros sent an email to Hillary Clinton about Albania..Clinton did exactly what she was told

no text required..just read it..what he demands..and what occurs..but we are the crazy ones to discuss conspiracies involving soros..

Target cuts outlook as it sees fewer customers in stores

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August 17, 2016

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Target cuts outlook as it sees fewer customers in stores

This Wednesday, June 29, 2016, photo shows a Target store in Hialeah, Fla. Target reports financial results Wednesday, Aug. 17.

NEW YORK (AP) — Target Corp. cut its profit forecast and a key sales outlook Wednesday as it saw fewer customers in its stores and acknowledged it didn't push the second part of its "Expect More, Pay Less" slogan.

The Minneapolis-based discounter's second-quarter net income fell nearly 10 percent, though that was better than what most had expected. Sales at stores open at least a year fell 1.1 percent, reversing seven straight quarters of gains.

Target's shares fell nearly 7 percent in morning trading.

Customer traffic fell for the first time in a year and a half. The company attributed that to it falling short on the "Pay Less" position, turning off shoppers looking for essentials like detergent or basic T-shirts. Target also cited issues in the quarter that were both company-specific and industrywide. They ranged from a lack of new products in its electronics area to disappointing business in perishables like fruits and vegetables and disruptions caused by its sale of its pharmacy business to CVS. The deal was completed in December of 2015.

Target also saw a wide variability in sales by markets, noting weakness on the East Coast but pockets of strength in parts of California.

"Our No. 1 focus is driving traffic back to our stores and accelerating business to our site," Chief Executive Brian Cornell told analysts on a conference call.

To boost sales and traffic, Target plans to increase marketing for its essentials and work with key vendors like Apple to push more innovation and to also improve presentations. In the pharmacy areas, it's working with the pharmacists to have them play a key role in the departments. It's still trying to reinvent its food area.

Target is also developing specific marketing plans to address key regional areas that have seen slower sales. And it's expanding its online services — doubling the number of stores that will be used to ship products directly to online shoppers' homes, which will result in speedier deliveries. Online sales rose 16 percent in the second quarter, lower than the 23 percent gain in the first quarter.

"Our progress in apparel and home has been really significant," said Cornell. "And we've got to make sure we never lose track of the other side of our brand promise and that's the "Pay Less" side. And that's all about those core household essentials that we have to make sure are presented effectively."

The quarter underscores challenges Target and other retailers face from Amazon and shoppers who remain somewhat cautious.

Target has been trying to reinvigorate itself under Cornell. He wants to restore the retailer's cheap-chic status and make Target more nimble after a series of headline-grabbing setbacks, including a pre-Christmas 2013 debit and credit card breach that hurt sales and profits for months. But striking the balance between offering stylish clothing and bedspreads while cultivating the perception that it's also a place to buy toothpaste and detergent at a good price is tricky.

Under Cornell, Target is focusing on categories like fashion, home furnishings and wellness products. The company has spruced up its presentation and created vignettes to feature its home products. Target is also creating new brands such as Cat & Jack, a children's clothing that is expected to generate annual sales of $1 billion. The collection hit stores this summer in time for the crucial back-to-school season.

It's also trying to reinvigorate grocery sales, which represent about 20 percent of its total business. It's marketing more organic, natural or gluten-free products. Target's nonperishable items have been doing well, but it's still having trouble getting shoppers to pick up fruits and vegetables, according to analysts.

Target's electronics department was a "significant drag," Cornell said. Apple product sales were down 20 percent in the quarter.

The company now expects earnings this year in the range of $4.80 to $5.20 per share, lower than the $5.20 to $5.40 it had projected earlier. Same-stores sales could fall as much as 2 percent in the second half of the year, Target said.

Net income for the quarter was $680 million, or $1.16 per share. That compares with $753 million, or $1.18 per share, in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted per-share earnings were $1.23, beating projections of $1.14 from Wall Street, according to a survey by Zacks Investment Research. Revenue fell 7 percent to $16.2 billion.

Shares fell $4.95 to $70.53 in morning trading Wednesday.

Trump shakes up campaign, names combative news executive in senior role

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August 17, 2016

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Trump shakes up campaign, names combative news executive in senior role

Republican U.S. presidential nominee Donald Trump holds a campaign rally at the Ziegler Building at the Washington County Fair Park; Conference Center in West Bend, Wisconsin

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican Donald Trump hired the pugnacious head of a conservative news website and promoted a woman in a shakeup of his troubled presidential campaign, an indication he is determined to maintain his combative style while honing his message to the voters who have taken him this far.

Stephen Bannon, the head of Breitbart News, the conservative website that is seen as one of the unorthodox candidate's most enthusiastic and steadfast backers, was hired to a new position of campaign CEO. Pollster Kellyanne Conway, who has been an adviser, will take on the role of campaign manager, the Trump campaign announced on Wednesday.

The shake-up comes as Trump faces criticism from many Republicans over a series of controversial statements and opinion polls show him falling behind Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the race for the Nov. 8 election.

Bannon's appointment suggested that Trump is aiming not so much to tone down his aggressive style but to be more disciplined in emphasizing themes that resonate strongly with the voters he is trying to court, such as his stances on immigration and criticism of Clinton.

Corey Lewandowski, Trump's former campaign manager who was ousted in June, said on CNN that Bannon was "a street fighter," like himself. The campaign statement announcing the changes touted a Bloomberg Politics article that dubbed Bannon "the most dangerous political operative in America."

Brian Walsh, a Republican strategist who has been critical of Trump in the past, said his embrace of Bannon seemed to indicate the New York businessman had no intention of changing tactics.

"He's rejecting efforts by political professionals to professionalize his campaign and he's going the route he went in the primaries: hard right. It's proven to be a disaster in the general election," Walsh said.

"Anyone who knows anything about politics would look at the current situation and realise he's losing because he's losing moderates, women and minorities. This would actually take it in the opposite direction from where it should be going."

Lewandowski said Conway, who ran a group of Super PACs backing U.S. Senator Ted Cruz's primary campaign, could help Trump with "any gender gap problems that he has."

A New Jersey-based pollster, Conway has worked in Republican polling since the 1980s, including for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s unsuccessful presidential campaign. She also worked for vice presidential nominee Mike Pence in his earlier races.

Conway, who presents conservative viewpoints in frequent appearances on political talk shows, has worked to improve the Republican Party's standing with women voters and to push back on the Democratic accusations that Republicans are waging a "war on women."

Conway and Bannon may prove to be opposing forces in Trump’s campaign. Conway is analytical and numbers-driven and often offers a more pragmatic approach to winning campaigns. Bannon is brash and bombastic, likes to push the limits of polite conversation and revels in taking the fight up a notch.

'WHATEVER IT TAKES'

Trump, a former reality TV star who has never held elected office, drew criticism for comments insulting women, Muslims and Mexican immigrants during the campaign for the Republican White House nomination, which he formally secured last month.

Since then, he has faced a barrage of criticism from Republicans over his freewheeling campaign style and his refusal to stick to a policy message.

In particular, he has been rebuked for his prolonged feud with the family of a Muslim U.S. Army captain who was killed in the Iraq war, and for his unfounded accusation that President Barack Obama and Clinton were the co-founders of the Islamic State militant group. Trump later backed off the comments about Islamic State.

The campaign's announcement on Wednesday quoted Trump as saying he was “committed to doing whatever it takes to win” the election. The campaign also said it would make its first major television commercial purchase later this week.

The staff changes, first reported in the Wall Street Journal, are the second time in two months that Trump has shifted his campaign's leadership. In June, he fired longtime aide Lewandowski as campaign manager and handed more power to senior campaign aide Paul Manafort.

The statement from the Trump campaign said Manafort would remain as campaign chairman and chief strategist.

Manafort drew unwelcome attention to the campaign this week when the New York Times reported that Manafort's name was on secret ledgers showing cash payments designated to him of more than $12 million from a Ukrainian political party with close ties to Russia. Manafort denied any impropriety on Monday.

Ukrainian officials confirmed Manafort's name appeared on a ledger and that more than $12 million had been allocated as an expenditure, but added that the presence of his name did not mean he received the funds.

Bannon, a former Goldman Sachs <GS.N> banker who also served in the U.S. Navy, came under criticism as not supporting Michelle Fields, a reporter who said she was grabbed and bruised by Lewandowski at a March campaign event in Florida. Lewandowski was charged with battery but the charge was later dropped.

Ben Shapiro, a Breitbart editor who resigned from the organisation along with Fields, called Bannon a bully who sold out to "another bully, Donald Trump," to protect Trump's man.

John Feehery, a Republican strategist, said Conway may be able to help Trump among women voters.

"Trump's biggest problem is the women vote. Women can't stand him. I think Kellyanne can help message to that demographic.”

ES Morning Update August 17th 2016

Reds Daily Updates

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August 17, 2016

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Trendline broke but lots of support in the 2160 area.

Ok gang, let's keep this pretty simple. Today is another FOMC day so the market generally trends down in front of it and back up after it. It's just the reading of last months' minutes but the market still treats it like a new meeting and waits to hear if anything new is said from Janet Yellen. Baring nothing new is said we should expect a float back up into the close. But after that there's no more important news the rest of this week that I know of, but if there is then it's all on Thursday as Friday's economic calendar looks almost empty.

So what I'm thinking is either one of two scenario's will likely play out. The first scenario is what I discussed yesterday about them running it up Wednesday and possibly Thursday to bust through 2200 and stop around 10-20 points above that level. It is a very common thing that has happened many times in the past where the market will run up to an "even" number level (like 2200, 2100, 2000, etc... or on the DOW we'd see 18,000 or 17,000) and pierce through it 10-20 points and then die out and reverse back down to start a correction.

The second scenario is usually what happens before the market pierces through that even number level, which is that it falls short of it by getting within 10-20 points of hitting it and then rolls over and starts a correction. So, if nothing positive or negative is said today after the FOMC, and the market fails to get back above the 2190 all time high from Monday (2193 on the SPX Cash) then I'd lean toward scenario two and expect the top to be in and Thursday to start another move down from wherever the close is at today. If they bust through the 2190 level then I'd look for 2200 plus the extra 10-20 points higher before the top.

My thoughts are that we'll do scenario two as everyone and their brother seems to be calling for 2200+, and I just think it's about time for SkyNet to kill a few bulls because this bus is past being "overloaded" and at the four flat tires stage now. We saw Apple hit it's FP yesterday and fill the gap with the pierce of 110, which is pretty much a double top from April 14th, 2016. The QQQ "possible" FP of 118.77 is likely NOT a FP as it's too obvious in my opinion... in fact it is still showing up on stockcharts.com Anyway, if all goes well we will see a lower high at the close today and I think that will be a good shorting spot into Thursday... which hopefully starts our correction into September/October.

Macy’s is closing another 100 stores

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August 16, 2016

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In a sign of how dramatically the retail shopping landscape is changing, Macy's is closing 100 of its stores nationwide.

Macy's announced the closures Thursday. They represent about 15% of all Macy's department stores. The iconic retailer did not disclose the locations of stores, but said most of them will be shut down in early 2017.

The Macy's move is the latest in a wave of store closures amid the rise and success of Amazon and other online shopping options.

For instance, Walmart announced plans in January to shut down 269 stores this year and just this week, inked a $3.3 billion deal to acquire Amazon rival Jet.com.

Sports Authority, once the nation's largest sporting goods retailer, is shutting all 450 of its stores after filing for bankruptcy. Other traditional retailers such as Target, JC Penney,Kmart, Sears and Kohl's have also pulled the plug on hundreds of stores in recent months.

It's a grim picture for retail store workers -- there have been around 44,000 retail layoffs announced so far this year alone, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas data. Walmart's closures alone impacted 16,000 workers.

Macy's closures come amid a sixth-straight quarterly decline in sales. However, sales fell less than feared and the company said it's "encouraged" by recent sales trends. Wall Street applauded the dramatic store closures, sending the stock surging 17%, its best day since 2008.

Macy's said its new strategy is to concentrate its financial firepower and talent on its best-performing locations. The department store plans to invest in strong stores by highlighting new vendors, increasing the size and quality of its staff and investing in new technology.

"We operate in a fast-changing world, and our company is moving forward decisively to build further on Macy's heritage," Macy's CEO Terry Lundgren said in a statement.

Macy's said the store closures could result in the loss of about $1 billion in sales, even after accounting for shoppers who would go online and to other Macy's locations. The company plans to offset that loss in sales by cutting costs, even beyond shutting down these stores.

It's not clear how many jobs will be impacted by these moves. Macy's told CNNMoney it won't detail layoffs until it finalizes its store closure list.

Macy's said employees at stores slated for closure may be offered positions in nearby stores "where possible," Macy's said. Workers who are laid off will be offered severance benefits.

"Macy's is committed to treating associates affected by store closings with respect and openness," the company said.

Karen Hoguet, Macy's chief financial officer, said most of the stores being closed are "underperformers, or are in weak locations."

The Macy's move is the latest blow to malls, many of which rely on the iconic department store to serve as an "anchor" tenant. Those malls impacted risk losing a major source of revenue and a suffering a traffic slowdown in traffic that is likely to hurt other stores. Struggles for other department stores make filling the hole left by Macy's even more challenging.

Shares of major mall owners General Growth Properties(GGP) and Simon Property Group (SPG)slumped 3% and 2%, respectively, on Thursday.

Even some premiere Macy's locations could eventually be scaled back. The company said it continues to "analyze possibilities" of bringing in alternative tenants into its flagship Herald Square location in Manhattan as well as the downtown stores in Chicago and Minneapolis. Macy's revealed it's also in talks to sell its Men's Store on Union Square in San Francisco for redevelopment.

Neil Saunders, CEO of research firm Conlumino, said the Macy's store closures are "sensible," but largely the result of a "self-inflicted defeat."

"Macy's has simply not bothered with a large rump of stores for many years: they have lacked investment, been devoid of management attention, and now look distressed and dispirited," Saunders wrote in a report.

The key will be whether Macy's is truly committed to rejuvenating its remaining stores in a way that gives consumers a reason to shop in person rather than online.

Soros hacked, thousands of Open Society Foundations files released online

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August 16, 2016

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Soros hacked, thousands of Open Society Foundations files released online

Business magnate George Soros

More than 2,500 files from the raft of organizations run by billionaire George Soros have been leaked by hackers.

Saturday’s leak, published by DC leaks, includes hundreds of internal documents from multiple departments of Soros’ groups, predominantly the Open Society Foundations.

The files are grouped into sections such as geographical region, the World Bank and the President’s Office, and cover the period from 2008 up until 2016, according to The Daily Caller.

They reveal work plans, strategies, priorities and other activities by Soros, and include reports on European elections, migration and asylum in Europe.

DC Leaks claims to be the work of American activists who want to present the truth about the “US decision-making process as well as about the key elements of American political life.”

US security experts however are blaming the leak on Russian hackers, according to Bloomberg, in a similar reaction seen in the wake of the DNC leaks.

The DC Leaks hackers previously released data from the Open Society Foundations in June, a breach that was reported to the FBI, according to spokeswoman Laura Silber. She said an investigation by a security firm found the intrusion was limited to an intranet system used by board members, staff and foundation partners.

DC Leaks also revealed emails from former NATO general Philip Breedlove which showed he tried to provoke President Obama to start US conflict against Russia. Breedlove claimed to CNN in July that the emails were stolen as part of a state-sponsored intelligence operation.

An email leaked by WikiLeaks earlier this week showed Soros had advised Hillary Clinton during her tenure as Secretary of State on how to handle unrest in Albania – advice she acted on.

Soros’ Open Society Foundations provides funding to the International Consortium for Investigative Journalists, which came under the spotlight earlier this year after the release of the Panama Papers, which included millions of records from law firm Mossack Fonseca showing how the wealthy are using tax havens.

The Panama Papers leak came under criticism from WikiLeaks, who claimed the US government and Soros funded the project to attack Russia and President Vladimir Putin.

ES Morning Update August 16th 2016

Reds Daily Updates

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August 16, 2016

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Barely holding the rising trendline this morning.

MACD's trying to turn back up on this 60 minute chart as well as the 2 hour chart.

My thoughts are that today is Ground Hog day... just like yesterday, the week before that, the week before that, the week before that, and the week before that. The typical play here is down in the morning and back up in the evening. Nothing much changes each day but over the entire week the market tends to grind a little higher.

I'm really just going to focus on seeing the QQQ hit it's upside FP, which should put the futures at 2200 or so where they seem determined to get too. Also I'm watching Apple as it hit it's lower FP of 109.1871 and looks like it wants the higher one just under 110 now. Since most FP's tend to get pierced through a little I'd expect Apple to pierce 110 before giving up the ship. The prior high on it was from April 14th where it hit 111.78, but I don't think it will make it past that, in fact I think it will fall short some where between 110 and 111 and that will be the top for it. At the same time we should see the QQQ hit 118.77 (and a pierce through it is possible too). We should also see the ES Futures hit 2200 (or slightly higher?).

Looking at the SPY there's a lot of open interest at the 220 level expiring this Friday so a pin there is totally possibly as well. That doesn't mean the SPY can't be higher then 220 a day or so prior to Friday, as I think that is very likely... then drift back to pin at 220 on Friday. For today though we should drop a little with targets of 2175 to as low as 2170 where prior support is. Then back up of course. This would break the rising trendline but with the volume so light that trendline is about a strong as a paper door with Mr. T. being the bull trying to bust through it... so even if we lose the trendline you should expect a move back up later today/tomorrow, etc... as 2200 is a huge magnet that the bulls won't stop trying to get until they get it.

BBC: Can Hillary Clinton give a straight answer on emails?

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August 15, 2016

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BBC: Can Hillary Clinton give a straight answer on emails?

Despite all the Trump-related good fortune that has been showered on Hillary Clinton over the past week, there has been a bit of a dark lining on her silver cloud. She still can’t seem to come up with an effective response to questions surrounding her use of a private email server while secretary of state.

On Sunday Mrs Clinton gave her first television interview since accepting the Democratic nomination last week. Perhaps as part of her strategy to reach out to disaffected Republicans, she chose to appear in that bastion of conservatism, Fox News, for the first time in five years.

Not surprisingly, it didn’t take long for the email topic to come up.

When host Chris Wallace asked the Democrat if she was being truthful to the American people when she said that she did not send classified emails on her personal account, Mrs Clinton cited FBI Director James Comey’s public state mention the investigation into the matter as corroboration.

“Director Comey said my answers were truthful, and what I’ve said is consistent with what I have told the American people, that there were decisions discussed and made to classify retroactively certain of the emails,” she said.

FBI Director James Comey testifies before congresson on his investigation into Hillary Clinton's private email server. — FBI Director James Comey has declined to comment on whether Hillary Clinton lied to the American people about classified material on her email server

Comey’s “truthful” description only applied to Mrs Clinton’s conversations with the FBI, however – not her public statements. According to the FBI’s findings, Mrs Clinton did indeed send emails that contained information that were classified at the time of transmission – a few of which contained “top secret” information.

Mrs Clinton also appeared to direct some of the blame for the whole imbroglio to her subordinates. After acknowledging that she “made a mistake” not using separate email addresses for personal and work messages, she said she had relied on the “judgements of the professionals” with whom she worked.

“In retrospect, maybe some people are saying, well, among those 300 people, they made the wrong call,” she said. “At the time, there was no reason in my view to doubt the professionalism and the determination by the people who work every single day on behalf of our country.”

Media fact-checkers have offered harsh reviews of Mrs Clinton’s response. The Washington Post gave it four “Pinocchios”, its lowest rating. Politifact labelled her statement “pants on fire”.

“Clinton is cherry-picking statements by Comey to preserve her narrative about the unusual setup of a private email server,” writes the Post’s Glenn Kessler. “This allows her to skate past the more disturbing findings of the FBI investigation.”

The challenge for Mrs Clinton is that to answer Wallace’s question accurately would require her to acknowledge one of two unpleasant truths.

Either she knew there was classified information on her email server and willfully tried to deceive the American people, or she wasn’t “particularly sophisticated with respect to classified information”, in the words of Comey, revealing a lack of knowledge that plays directly against the claims of hyper-competency that under gird her presidential campaign.

There’s little doubt the email controversy has had a negative effect on Mrs Clinton’s standing with the US public – particularly in surveys that ask whether she is “honest and trustworthy”.

A presidential preference tracking poll of Hillary Clinton v Donald Trump.

Following Comey’s press conference in which he announced that Mrs Clinton would not face criminal charges but was “extremely careless” in her handling of classified material, the then-presumptive nominee’s approval ratings dropped and head-to-head presidential match-ups with Donald Trump narrowed to a statistical tie.

In a mid-July poll conducted by ABC and the Washington Post, 57% of respondents said the email controversy made them “very” or “somewhat” worried about how Mrs Clinton would handle presidential responsibilities if she were elected.

A CNN poll found Mrs Clinton’s favor-ability ratings dropped from 48% favorable on 1 May to only 39% on 24 July.

Her numbers have rebounded somewhat, thanks in part to a successful Democratic National Convention and Mr Trump’s smorgasbord of controversial statements and questionable campaign moves.

The matter is far from resolved, however, given that the State Department has reopened its investigation into whether Mrs Clinton or her aides violated government policy and should receive some form of sanction. Before too long, the Democratic nominee may once again be called onto offer an explanation for her actions under the glare of the national media spotlight.

Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Ashburn, Virginia. — Donald Trump's ongoing controversies are burying any fallout from Hillary Clinton's Fox News interview on Sunday

Until Mrs Clinton finds a way to answer questions about her email server without making statements that blame-shift, appear nakedly evasive or are easily debunked by fact-checkers, her campaign will continue to have a glaring soft spot.

Maybe Mr Trump will be able to refocus and exploit the weakness. Maybe he won't. But even if Mrs Clinton prevails in November, she will need a base level of support and trust from the American people to govern effectively.

At least at this point, there's no guarantee that she'll have it.

Why China’s Plan to Build a Nautical Silk Road Runs Through Singapore

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August 15, 2016

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Why China’s Plan to Build a Nautical Silk Road Runs Through Singapore

As the son of a man who journeyed from China to Singapore and founded a shipping business a half century ago, Teo Siong Seng sees his life as one immersed in the ancient trading networks of Asia.

So the managing director of the Pacific International Lines Group is seeking to benefit as China rejuvenates its Silk Road routes to the Middle East and Europe. He is setting up a joint venture with China Cosco Shipping Corporation Ltd. to help China’s largest shipping group build connections in Southeast Asia and beyond.

“Chinese companies alone may not have enough experience to carry out their investments in other countries,” said Teo, who’s also chairman of the Singapore Business Federation. “To cooperate with companies like us would also make their businesses smoother. They have to learn the way we deal with local people and the way we do business.”

Two people watch the Singapore-flagged Clemens Schulte cargo ship as it arrives in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on August 27, 2015. The 255 metre long container ship is the longest vessel to have ever berthed at Dar es Salaam's port. Clemens Schulte is expected to discharge 250 containers and load 1,300 containers at the port. Dar es Salaam port is undergoing a transformation to improve its physical infrastructural capacity and enhance operational efficiency. AFP PHOTO / DANIEL HAYDUK (Photo credit should read Daniel Hayduk/AFP/Getty Images) — Two people watch the Singapore-flagged Clemens Schulte cargo ship as it arrives in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on August 27, 2015. The 255 metre long container ship is the longest vessel to have ever berthed at Dar es Salaam’s port. Clemens Schulte is expected to discharge 250 containers and load 1,300 containers at the port. Dar es Salaam port is undergoing a transformation to improve its physical infrastructural capacity and enhance operational efficiency. AFP PHOTO / DANIEL HAYDUK (via Bloomberg)

The venture underscores Singapore’s potential as a gateway to Southeast Asia for China as President Xi Jinping seeks to export excess industrial capacity while building influence overseas.

Lured by shared cultural bonds and the former British colony’s legal and financial systems, the number of Chinese companies registered locally has almost doubled in the past five years to more than 7,500.

Exploiting Singapore’s regional familiarity could help Chinese companies navigate local politics complicated by tensions over China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea. It could also help them avoid pitfalls from prior investment in Africa and Latin America, where China has faced criticism at times for a heavy-handed approach, insisting for example its companies and laborers carry out the bulk of a contract.

“From all the failures, Chinese have learned that they need a local broker,” said Gao Zhikai, a board member of coking coal distributor Winsway Enterprises Holdings and former vice president of crude oil giant CNOOC Ltd. “Chinese companies believe Singapore companies are easier to deal with and they know how to deal with different markets.”

Xi is offering vasts amounts of money to Southeast Asia for infrastructure projects for the maritime portion of his revitalized Silk Road. Combined with an overland route through Eurasia, the project is known as “One Belt, One Road.”

For Beijing, the project is a solution to the industrial overcapacity that has built up in many sectors. It’s also the economic carrot of Xi’s push to make China a regional power and challenge decades of U.S. dominance in Asia. Greater trade and investment could blunt concern over the country’s military expansion and its territorial ambitions.

Investment company Fosun International — one of the largest private groups in China — set up its Southeast Asian headquarters in Singapore last year. “Chinese companies have to pick the right platform and springboard before making an international move, and Singapore is a very good choice,” said chief executive officer Liang Xinjun.

China’s relations with Southeast Asia are deeply rooted in history and the region’s trading culture.

Some Chinese Singaporeans, like Teo’s father, migrated from Chinese provinces like Fujian during the second Sino-Japanese War in the 1930s, and ethnic Chinese traders had been plying routes in the area for centuries before.

China has looked to Singapore before: The country in late 2015 hosted the first summit between Taiwan and China in seven decades, while late leader Lee Kuan Yew was seen as a regional voice of counsel on China relations. Many Chinese officials tread a path each year to Singapore to study its political model.

Singapore has the largest ethnic Chinese population in the region, at nearly 75 percent, and is China’s largest foreign investor. More than 20 percent of its gross domestic product is linked to China, according to Natixis SA.

Chinese business flowing through Singapore could help as its economy faces what could be its slowest-growth year since the global financial crisis, hurt by a slowdown in trade, weak commodity prices and job cuts in the banking industry.

Still, while Southeast Asian nations are hungry for infrastructure funds to meet the demands of their growing populations, China shouldn’t expect an unconditional open door.

‘More Cautious’

“Many countries in Southeast Asia are becoming more cautious when dealing with Chinese companies, which have a relatively bad track record in implementing deals over the past decade,” said Winsway’s Gao, who is also director of the China National Association of International Studies.

“Given the growing tensions over the South China Sea, Chinese firms have to be even more careful in putting the deals in practice,” Gao said. “Even a small mistake could cause a major negative reaction.”

China may look to Singapore to help smooth over the territorial frictions it has with some Southeast Asian nations. The U.S. navy uses Singapore as a gateway to the South China Sea for its ships and surveillance planes, and Singapore has called on China to tread carefully.

On a company level, there is progress. Singapore’s Ascendas-Singbridge Group created a joint venture last year with China Machinery Engineering Corporation to invest in industrial and technology parks in Asia. Ascendas-Singbridge Chief Customer Solutions Officer Aylwin Tan said the venture expects to announce its first project within six months.

“We find that trust is the most important element in the Chinese business culture,” Tan said by e-mail. “Singaporeans can better appreciate the Chinese culture, and understand the spoken and unspoken rules of doing business in China.”

Still, there will be difficulties ahead, according to Bernard Chan, president of Asia Financial, an investment holding company. Some nations in the region have relatively opaque — and complex — regulatory and financial reporting systems that can be harder for outsiders to navigate.

Also, China companies in some cases “have absolutely no clue of what they are buying, but they have to buy,” said Chan. “It looks like a recycling of what happened 20 years ago to the Japanese. Hopefully Chinese companies could learn from them and minimize the mistakes. But I’m sure they will walk through that cycle once again.”

Distressed Assets Pile Up at Life Insurers, and More Are Coming

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August 15, 2016

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Distressed Assets Pile Up at Life Insurers, and More Are Coming

North American life insurers have accidentally doubled their distressed-debt holdings in just six months. In the future, they are poised to build on that mound by design.

Companies including Prudential Financial Inc. and MetLife Inc. held $1.32 billion of bonds that were in default, or close to it, at the end of the second quarter, their highest level since the middle of 2011, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data.

They did not intend to buy distressed debt: In many cases they bought investment-grade bonds from energy drillers and retailers that ended up heading south. Insurance companies’ trouble with these bonds underscores how even conservative investors have been hurt by plunging oil prices.

In the coming years, the companies are likely to buy more risky junk debt, said David Havens, a bond analyst covering insurers at brokerage Imperial Capital. For one thing, they need the income as central banks globally keep bond yields low, cratering investment returns for the industry. Also, proposed regulatory changes may make it cheaper for insurers to own the bonds, he said.

"They don’t really have a lot of alternatives to buying this stuff in this environment," Havens said on the telephone in an interview. While insurers are unlikely to buy more distressed bonds, they will probably buy more junk-rated debt that is at least four steps below investment grade, he said. That debt is more likely to fall to distressed levels when the credit cycle changes for the worse.

Energy bonds looked fairly safe to many insurers because oil and gas companies had high levels of assets relative to their debt, according to Mike Collins, a portfolio manager at Prudential’s fixed income unit, which oversees $652 billion for external investors. But as oil prices have plunged, so has the value of the assets, and the bonds have proven to be far riskier than they appeared, Collins said. He was speaking generally and not about Prudential in particular.

“I don’t think anybody expected oil to fall as much as it did,” Collins said, referring to the price of a barrel of oil, which plunged from more than $100 in 2014 to less than $26 in February. “That caught a lot of people by surprise, and a lot of companies have gone from looking like they’re in great shape to distressed very quickly."

Prudential Financial held $535 million of distressed debt measured by fair value in the second quarter, the most of any insurer in the peer group tracked by Bloomberg Intelligence in absolute terms but less than one tenth of a percent of its overall assets. The company had $383 million of distressed bonds at the end of 2015.

Still Cautious

Distressed bonds are a small percentage of most life insurers’ investments, accounting for less than a tenth of a percent of the industry’s assets, and the companies can hold onto them for a long time, giving them leeway to work out difficulties and recover as much money as possible. The firms are refraining from taking excessive risk now, said Peter Wirtala, a strategist at Asset Allocation & Management Co., which manages $17.9 billion for about 100 insurance clients.

"Even as urgently as everyone needs yield, they’ve been cautious on the asset front," Wirtala said.

Still, distressed assets are likely to keep piling up at insurers as the price of oil remains around $40 a barrel, said Sasha Kamper, a senior research analyst focusing on distressed holdings at Principal Financial Group Inc.’s asset manager.

"We are near the peak of the credit cycle, and we will expect to see increased defaults going forward," Kamper said.

S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday that 111 companies globally have defaulted so far this year, the highest number since 2009, during the financial crisis. Energy and natural resources account for about 53 percent of those defaults.

Even if distressed holdings are largely accidental now, regulators are considering proposals that could ease the amount of capital life insurers can use to fund junk bonds, which makes it more profitable for the companies to increase their investment risk. Life insurance companies are seeking more income as low bond yields globally corrode their investment returns.

Under current rules from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, which sets standards for the U.S. industry, a bond with a rating four steps below junk needs to be funded with capital equal to at least 10 percent of the bond’s value before taxes. The NAIC is considering a proposal to lower that to around 6 percent.

Investors are likely to respond by buying more speculative-grade bonds, said AAM strategist Wirtala. They will probably also buy more investment-grade bonds with ratings close to the top of the spectrum, which can be funded with less capital, he said. The higher-quality assets can offset the lower quality ones from a capital use standpoint, he said.

"This is really something we’re telling people to keep an eye on," Wirtala said.

A Number of Companies Are Warning About High Consumer Uncertainty

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August 15, 2016

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A Number of Companies Are Warning About High Consumer Uncertainty

Consumer balance sheets have strengthened since the financial crisis, but their confidence is still lagging far, far behind.

There are a number of things for U.S. consumers to worry about, even if personal finances are fairly strong. An upcoming election in the U.S. and unrest overseas has started to show up in economic data measuring consumer sentiment, which hasn't seen much of an uptick over the past two years despite the stock market's march higher.

Executives at frontline consumer companies with have a first hand look at this phenomenon, so when Goldman Sachs Group Inc. did its quarterly skimming of earnings calls, this imbalance was one of the four key themes they found.

"Consumers are strong financially, but sentiment is mixed," Goldman's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin and team wrote in a new note to clients. "Managements expressed concern that consumers will postpone spending due to rising political and economic uncertainty. However, financial firms noted an improvement in household balance sheets."

Here's a look at a few of the key examples Kostin and team pulled from this quarter's earnings calls.

BlackRock Inc. says its clients are often at a loss for where to put their money:

"Clients do not know what to do with their money. They are afraid and they are pulling back as evidenced by more than $55 trillion in bank deposits sitting in the United States, China and Japan alone. And even as markets have rallied recently, many clients have missed that upside and find themselves feeling even further behind."

Starbucks Corp. executives spoke on a number of issues that are causing the consumer to be more cautious:

"I think we have a situation where you have a very uncertain election. You have domestic civil unrest with regard to race. And I think the issues around terror have created a level of anxiety....There are a number of things that we are facing as citizens, and I think the direction of the country. And so, I think this is a multi-prong issue that almost every company and every consumer brand is facing as a result of what Ive just described."

McDonalds Corp. leadership mentioned many of the same concerns that Starbucks addressed:

"I think generally, there's just a broader level of uncertainty in consumers minds at the moment, both trying to gauge their financial security going forward, you know, whether through elections or through global events, people are slightly mindful of an unsettled world. And when people are uncertain, when families are uncertain, caution starts to prevail and they start to hold back on spend."

Visa Inc. CEO Charlie Scharf was a bit more optimistic, saying he was impressed with the average consumer's resiliency.

"The consumer has remained remarkably steadfast in the face of significant global instability."

With the presidential election still months away, at least one of these concerns will carry on through the next quarter.

S&P 500 Resists Bearish Tug to Post Sixth Advance in Seven Weeks

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August 15, 2016

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S&P 500 Resists Bearish Tug to Post Sixth Advance in Seven Weeks

The steady march higher for U.S. stocks may have slowed to a crawl, but the S&P 500 Indexes sixth advance in seven weeks still managed to defy a chorus of bears warning valuations have become too rich.

The benchmark for American equity edged higher by 1.2 points to 2,184.05, two points shy of a record. Energy shares paced gains as crude notched its best week since April, while results from the largest department stores bolstered confidence in the retailing industry. Mixed economic data lowered the odds of an interest-rate hike this year, sending bank shares lower.

The rally in U.S. stocks amid a fifth consecutive quarter of declining earnings has inflated valuations to levels last seen in the dot-com era, a warning for some. For bulls, fresh evidence of the American economys steady expansion at a pace that isnt forcing the Federal Reserve to tighten can keep pushing equity prices higher.

The market continues to drift higher just above stall speed, Terry Morris, Wyomissing, Pennsylvania-based managing director of equities at BB&T Institutional Investment Advisors, said by phone. A lot of people who were scared out of equities earlier this year think they're missing the train and want back in, and valuations haven't necessarily deterred them. Investors aren't viewing the Fed as an immediate threat, with the economy growing just slow enough to keep them from raising right now.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the week up 0.2 percent to 18,576.47, just under 40 points from an all-time high. The Nasdaq Composite Index edged higher to close at a record.

Persistent if slow gains have combined with falling earnings to swell valuations in the benchmark index. The S&P 500 is trading a 18.6 times future earnings, the highest since 2002. Although the second quarter has seen better-than-expected earnings growth, companies in the S&P 500 are still on pace for a fifth straight period of contraction, the longest streak since the start of the bull market.

The valuations do matter, but they aren't a short term indicator, said Joe Bell, a Cincinnati-based senior equity analyst at Schaeffers Investment Research Inc. This is a market that looks very strong and looks like it can continue to grow despite those high valuations. We aren't seeing a top in the market.

The U.S. stock markets grind to new highs and stretched valuations has come amid muted price swings. The S&P 500 has been stuck in a range of about 40 points since July 8, going 25 days without a move of more than 1 percent in either direction, the longest such streak since 2014.

That's kept the CBOE Volatility Index close to the lowest level in two years. The so-called equity fear gauge climbed 1.4 percent to 11.55 over the five days, snapping a six-week streak of declines. The measure still sits 33 percent below its five-year average.

The steadily rising, range-bound S&P 500 has been a drag on short positions that investors opened following the U.K.s vote in late June to exit the European Union. A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. basket of the markets 50 most-shorted stocks has surged 25 percent since the S&P 500 fell to a three-month low on June 27. Its advanced seven straight weeks in the longest rally since 2009.

Still, not all stock market signals have been reassuring for bulls. Corporate insiders slowed monthly buying of their own stock to the lowest ever in July, while retail investors have pulled $1.2 billion from the SPDR S&P 500 ETF over the past two weeks. Even Wall Street strategists, normally the markets most reliable cheerleaders, are calling for a drop by year-end for the first time since 2014.

Some market participants believe the rally isn't sustainable, Nadia Lovell, U.S. equity strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank in New York, said by phone. We've advised clients to take on some protection recently with valuations looking fairly stretched.

A brighter message has been forming in corporate profits. With the earnings season about 90 percent done, about 78 percent of S&P 500 firms beat profit projections and 56 percent exceeded sales forecasts. Analysts have tempered their estimates for a decline in second-quarter net income to 2.5 percent, from 5.8 percent less than a month ago.

Myron Fagan exposes the Illuminati/CFR [1967]

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August 15, 2016

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Myron Fagan exposes the Illuminati/CFR [1967]

A message from almost 50 years stands more true then ever today as we "red pill takers" have been exposed to heavily over the last decade with internet, blogs and youtube videos.

Notes:

Published on Aug 12, 2013

Vinyl rip from my personal collection. Best audio on the net.

This 3x LP record set documents the activities of a secret society known as The Illuminati, and their New World Order.

Mr. Fagan describes with documentary evidence how the ILLUMINATI became the instrument of the House of Rothschild to achieve a "One World Government".

Mr. Fagan relentlessly uncovered plots for major historical events. Myron Fagan is considered to be the archetype for the PCT (Paranoid Conspiracy Theorist)

This Recording is one of the most interesting and yet horrifying, factual stories of some of the most sensational plots in the history of the world.

The findings by Mr. Fagan were split into 6 parts, between these 3 records and are presented to you here, in full.

Each record has some descriptive notes on the back of each jacket such as...

*Eliminate the Illuminati...see that this message is heard!!!

* Play this for the unaware, uninformed and well meaning people who desire to hear the truth. Don't waste your time on the hard core socialists who have already repudiated principle.

* Buy Air-time with your club or organization! Get free time! No station is too small!

* Use at coffees - Luncheons - meetings - everywhere and often. We must succeed - Our children's liberty is at stake - Freedom has no substitute - America no equal!

Red

P.S. Just some interesting people who changed their names...

ES Morning Update August 15th 2016

Reds Daily Updates

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August 15, 2016

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Here we are again it seems... another slow grind up the rising trendline. They seem very determined to hit the 2200 level, but I'd just focus on the 118.77 QQQ FP for direction as well as the old Apple FP's in the 109 area. At that point I think one could sell a credit spread as while the those markets might not drop immediately from hitting their FP's they should stop going up at least I think. That's why I like credit spreads as you win if the market just chops sideways, and if it goes in your direction. I don't have any FP's on the SPY, SPX Cash or ES Mini Futures but I'd guess we'll be really close to 2200 at the point the Apple and QQQ prints hit.

This week is the monthly option expiration week and usually bullish. I know we are coming up on the August 24th anniversary of the mini-crash from last year but I wouldn't expect a repeat. If they do continue up through that week then I'd be looking for the September 1st-10th period for a turn. As crazy as it sounds we really could be headed up to that FP from last year of 230 on the SPY, or 2300 on the SPX.

It's not something you can figure out very easily when the market trades sideways for so long with such small moves up and down. The technicals aren't much help in figuring it out and count waves is about as useful as counting ripples in a very quiet pond after one tiny fish jumps up out of the water and back down to create it. Earlier this year we traders were in the rough waters of the ocean, but now we've drifted ashore (or into that quiet lake/pond). I guess we should enjoy the quiet time as I'm sure it won't last forever. September and October are near and we'll likely be back out to sea when they arrive.

Anyway, the forecast for today is sunny, temperatures in the 90's with no clouds in sight. Small chance of rain today but if we climb into the 100's by the close it should be hot enough to produce some rain Tuesday morning.

Tech Companies Apple, Twitter, Google, and Instagram Collude to Defeat Trump

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August 12, 2016

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Tech Companies Apple, Twitter, Google, and Instagram Collude to Defeat Trump

There is no such thing as Pro-Trump free speech as Clinton corporate allies serve up a carefully curated view of the campaign

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Voters expect CNN and others to tilt American elections. What’s new is that social media and even video games are getting in on the act.

My dad always told me that conservative candidates have to work twice as hard as their liberal opponents to win elections because they’re fighting two opponents: the Democratic Party and the media.

The usual suspects from left-leaning major media outlets like The New York Times, MSNBC, CNN and even entertainment networks are doing everything in their power to ensure a Clinton victory. Look no further than to Wolf Blitzer mincing around and drinking wine at the Democratic convention, celebrating Hillary’s nomination. But the propaganda skewing this election runs much deeper than just the media: our iPhones, iPads, social media networks, Google and even video games are all in the tank for Hillary Clinton—and it’s chilling.

I began looking into how strong the bias and censorship runs in these forums after I did an interview on the pro-Trump podcast, MAGA. The show’s host, Mark Hammond, was disappointed Apple wouldn’t run his show without an “explicit” warning. Hammond’s podcast didn’t contain content that would be deemed explicit under Apple’s policy, and most other shows in the News & Politics category aren’t labeled as such.

On June 18, Hammond talked to Sandra, a representative from Apple. She explained that, since the description of his show is pro-Trump, his show is explicit in nature—because the subject matter is Donald Trump. So, an Apple employee concluded the Republican presidential candidate is explicit.

iTunes has dozens of podcasts discussing Osama Bin Laden and Adolf Hitler—none of which is marked explicit. I encouraged Hammond to contact Apple again, via email to their podcast support team. Within 48 hours he received a response from “Tim,” who informed Hammond that his podcast would be updated to “clean” within 24 hours.

Further digging on Apple revealed more evidence that the computer giant is feeding users pro-Hillary and anti-Trump propaganda.

Over the past year, Apple twice refused to publish a satirical Clinton Emailgate game, “Capitol HillAwry,” claiming it was “offensive” and “mean spirited” even though the game’s developer, John Matze, cited in communications with Apple that the game fits the standards of Apple’s own satire policy. Apple has, however, approved dozens of games poking fun at Donald Trump—including a game called “Dump Trump,” which depicts the GOP nominee as a giant turd.

On July 25, Breitbart exposed this blatant double standard and favoritism toward Clinton. A few days after the article was released, Apple caved and published Capitol HillAwry, 15 months after Matze’s first attempt to go live.

While it’s commendable that Apple resolved both situations, Trump supporters and conservative users should never have faced such biased treatment in the first place.

Around the same time I was a guest on MAGA, a friend complained to me about how biased his Apple News feed is against Trump. I set up an Apple News account on my iPhone.

First step: select an outlet. Fox News. Conservative. But my news feed? Liberal.

And if there are articles above the fold from more right-leaning sites? They paint Trump in a negative light and Hillary in a positive light. Of all the channels listed in the Apple News politics section, only two of the 16 arguably lean right—the rest are reliably left-wing.

This has, of course, been pointed out before, and anyone with an iPhone or iPad can go to Apple News to determine on his or her own if Apple is pushing leftist propaganda. Apple claims not to endorse candidates, but their actions suggest otherwise, and some of their executives—including CEO Tim Cook—actively support Clinton’s campaign. Buzzfeed recently obtained an invitation to a private $50,000-per-plate fundraiser Cook is hosting for Clinton with his Apple colleague, Lisa Jackson, at the end of this month.

Apple isn’t the only corporation doing Clinton’s bidding. Wikileaks founder Julian Assange said Clinton made a deal with Google and that the tech giant is “directly engaged” in her campaign. It’s been widely reported Clinton hired Eric Schmidt—chairman of Alphabet, the parent company of Google—to set up a tech company called The Groundwork. Assange claims this was to ensure Clinton had the “engineering talent to win the election.” He also pointed out that many members of Clinton’s staff have worked for Google, and some of her former employees now work at Google.

So it should come as no surprise that there have been multiple reports accusing Google of manipulating searches to bury negative stories about Clinton. SourceFed details how Google alters its auto-complete functions to paint Clinton in a positive light.

For example, when you type “Hillary Clinton cri” into other engines like Yahoo! or Bing, the most popular autofills are “Hillary Clinton criminal charges” but in Google it’s “Hillary Clinton crime reform.” Google denies they changed their algorithm to help Clinton, and insists the company does not favor any candidate. They also claim their algorithms don’t show predicted queries that are offensive or disparaging.

But Google has gotten into hot water on multiple occasions for connecting Trump to Adolf Hitler. In June, when users searched “when Hitler was born” it generated the expected information on Hitler but also an image of Trump. In July, searches for Trump’s book, Crippled America, returned images of Adolf Hitler’s manifesto Mein Kempf. Google has since fixed both—but again, why do these issues always conveniently disparage Trump and help Clinton?

Twitter is another culprit. The company has gotten a lot of slack for banning conservatives and Trump supporters such as Breitbart’s Milo Yiannopoulos and, most recently, rapper Azealia Banks after she came out in support of Trump. Twitter has provided vague answers as to why conservative voices have been banned while they’ve allowed other users to call for the killing of cops.

Just yesterday, Buzzfeed revealed that the social media giant’s top executive personally protected the President from seeing critical messages last year. “In 2015, then-Twitter CEO Dick Costolo secretly ordered employees to filter out abusive and hateful replies to President Barack Obama.”

This year, Twitter isn’t just banning conservatives—the platform also changed its algorithms to promote Clinton while giving negative exposure to Trump.

The founders of some of the most popular pro-Trump Twitter handles—including @USAforTrump2016 and @WeNeedTrump—insist Twitter is censoring their content. They’ve pointed out that Twitter changes trending hashtags associated with negative tweets about Clinton (which has been reported before). On August 4, shortly after the hashtag “HillaryAccomplishment” began trending, it was taken over by anti-Clinton users, who used it to mention Benghazi or Emailgate. Eric Spracklen, @USAforTrump2016 founder, noticed the hashtag was quickly changed—pluralized to #HillarysAccomplishments.

“They take away the hashtag that has negative tweets for Clinton and replace it with something that doesn’t so the average person doesn’t see what was really trending,” Spracklen said. “This happens every day.”

Jack Murphy, founder of @WeNeedTrump, says followers complain they often aren’t able to retweet his pro-Trump tweets.

Instagram has also banned accounts that depict Clinton in a negative light. In June, a conservative comedy group called Toughen Up America was banned with no warning or explanation. Last week, the popular Australian-based graffiti artist, Lushsux, was banned from Instagram after he posted photos of a bikini-clad Clinton mural he painted.

“I don’t want to sound like a conspiracy theorist with a tin foil hat, but the timing of the Hillary Clinton mural posting and the deletion that ensued can’t just be a coincidence,” he told the Daily Mail Australia. Lushsux has posted photos of way more graphic murals, including a topless Melania Trump and a naked Donald with his package in full sight. These images did not trigger any censorship from Instagram.

Facebook has a long history of shutting down pages and blocking conservative users while promoting progressive voices like Black Lives Matter activists. The problem became so transparent that Sen. John Thune sent a letter to Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg asking him to explain their practices.

Facebook denies it discriminates against “any sources of ideological origin” and Zuckerberg did meet with conservatives in an attempt to resolve this issue. While some walked away from the meeting encouraged that Zuckerberg wants to repair their relationship, other prominent conservatives rejected the invitation as a publicity stunt. It should be noted that Facebook employees have donated more to Clinton than to any other candidate.

Many conservatives have come to expect this kind of thing from the mainstream media. CNN, which paints itself as the centrist antidote to right-leaning Fox News and left-leaning MSNBC, has actually been among the most disingenuous offenders during this cycle, fully earning its derisive nickname “Clinton News Network.” For example, as NewsBusters pointed out for just one day, “CNN set aside nearly half of its air time on Wednesday’s New Day to various recent controversies involving the Trump campaign — 1 hour, 24 minutes, and 18 seconds over three hours. By contrast, the program clearly didn’t think much of the Wall Street Journal‘s revelation that the Obama administration secretly airlifted $400 million in cash to Iran. John Berman gave a 27-second news brief to the report, but didn’t mention that the payment was sent on “an unmarked cargo plane.” New Day, therefore, devoted over 187 times more coverage to Trump than to the millions to Iran.”

Another favored CNN trick is to present a “balanced” panel comprised of two Republicans, two Democrats and a host, as they did on the afternoon of July 29, just to name one instance of a hundred. However, the Republican side always features one Trump supporter and one “Never Trump” Republican, with the host grilling the Trump Supporter—often a beleaguered Jeffrey Lord—in what amounts to a 4-on-1. So much for balance.

Right now, CNN has a story on its site called “Which Republicans oppose Trump and why?” There’s no corresponding story about Democrats who oppose Clinton, even though her underdog challenger in the primary lasted far longer and received far more votes than any of Trump’s Republican challengers.

No Republican willing to criticize Trump is too insignificant to merit coverage on CNN. When a minor Christie staffer announced on her personal Facebook that she’d be backing Hillary, she somehow merited a 1200 word story on CNN’s website and euphoric coverage on the air by Brooke Baldwin for “splitting with her party.”

So that’s the traditional media. But this new strand, where one cannot even search for alternative viewpoints amid technology companies who stand to benefit from the free-trade policies and eased immigration regulations of a Clinton presidence, represents a dangerous sea change. There’s absolutely no question the digital forums we use every day are censoring conservatives and favoring Clinton. You can’t simply scroll through photos on Instagram, look for a video game in the App Store or do a quick Google search without being fed anti-Trump and pro-Clinton propaganda.

These companies are engaging in activity that can quickly lead down a very dangerous slippery slope and this should concern all freedom-loving Americans—not just conservatives. If you don’t know when the election is, no problem! Just Google it and see for yourself what comes up…

Google, before adjustments were made to the ‘when is the election’ search. (Screenshot: Google)

Disclosure: Donald Trump is the father-in-law of Jared Kushner, the publisher of Observer Media.

Liz Crokin is an award-winning author, journalist, political pundit and an advocate for sex crime victims. Her work has appeared in the RedEye Edition of the Chicago Tribune, the Chicago Sun-Times: Splash, Townhall, Elite Daily, Marie Claire and Us Weekly. Follower her on Twitter and Instagram @LizCrokin.

ES Morning Update August 12th 2016

Reds Daily Updates

Red

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August 12, 2016

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Every day I have to come up with something new and interesting to say about the market, which right now is kind of like the weather man in some very hot mid-west city or state that hasn't seen rain in over a month. Each day is the same... hot, temperatures in the high 90's to low 100's, no clouds in the sky, and zero chance of rain. Yep, that report is pretty much the same for the stock market each day as it stays up in very overbought territory with no chance of rain in sight. Temperature could continue for another month with a small chance of a rise up (to the 230 SPY FP maybe?) into the high 100's. No clouds in sight again today, as it seems that when a cloud does form some grey haired older woman in a helicopter flys into it and makes it disappear. She tosses something into the cloud (looks like money, but can't be sure) and it goes away preventing any rain from happening. She saves the day from us sheep getting wet... how nice of her!

Ok guys, it's Friday... TGIF! The futures have inched up over the horizontal trading range yesterday, which was about 2175. This morning they hit 2184 and seem to be pulling back a little right now. When they pulled back yesterday they found support at the prior horizontal resistance level, so if they do that again today they should stop around 2175 or so. Pattern-wise it looks like a "cup and handle", and of course the month long sideways trading is a bull flag. But considering how overbought it is I'd be surprised to see any fast move up. Instead it looks like more grind again today. So maybe it's best to stay indoors with the AC on as this heat wave looks like it will continue for the rest of the day.. Next week normally another hot week, so little to no rain is expected. Fear not though dear sheep, as if a rain cloud shows up I'm sure that grey haired old woman will show up and save the day again.

TIME Magazine Releases New Cover on Donald Trump: ‘Meltdown’

News

Red

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August 11, 2016

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TIME Magazine Releases New Cover on Donald Trump: ‘Meltdown’

It's Almost Over

The new edition of TIME magazine features a cover story titled, "Inside Donald Trump's Meltdown," chronicling Donald Trump's disastrous three weeks since his unsuccessful and poorly-managed Republican National Convention.

While the cover image is worth a thousand words, here's a telling excerpt:

"Like the rest of the party, Trump’s staff has been flummoxed by his political naiveté. They describe a candidate who doesn’t understand the basics of modern campaigns, from why you knock on doors to how to read a poll to why he should be dialing for dollars more aggressively. His headquarters has enough palace intrigue and warring fiefs to rival the fictional badlands of Westeros. 'You’re always afraid of getting fired,' says one staffer, 'but it’s his fault, not ours.'"

And this, talk about Trump's relationship with RNC chairman Reince Priebus, stating, "every bond has its breaking point. For this partnership, the moment nearly arrived in early August. Priebus was on vacation when he learned that Trump had declined to endorse Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House and a close friend. The chairman had a frank message for the nominee, according to two Republican officials briefed on the call. Priebus told Trump that internal GOP polling suggested he was on track to lose the election. And if Trump didn’t turn around his campaign over the coming weeks, the Republican National Committee would consider redirecting party resources and machinery to House and Senate races."

The cover just says, "Meltdown."

Well guys...

I won't say that magazine covers have always be accurate at forecasting the future but as regular followers of this blog know... the "elite" (aka... gangsters, criminals, banksters, illuminati, etc...) do tend to tell us sheep in advance of what evil they plan to do to us.

So, assuming "they" own and fully control Time Magazine (and "yes" I'm sure they do) this could truly be a coded message to the insiders (and us sheep that are woke up and watching) that "they" plan to let Trump win and then blame the "already planned" stock market crash on him. There you go... Trump is their new "scapegoat"!

Red 🙂