MACD's are mixed between the 6 hour, 4 hours, 2 hour and 60 minute charts.
With the FOMC meeting today at 2pm again we might be directionless until then, but in favor of the bears I think. If yesterdays move down was some kind of small A wave and the choppy retrace back up to the 2050 area was the B wave then we should see the C wave down today to complete this ABC pattern. The B wave up looks to small to me but if we breakdown and lose the 2040 area of support then we should be in the C wave down. Support then is around the 2010 zone.
Now, if we don't see that 2040 support break before the FOMC meeting then we might not be finished with the B wave up and it might pop higher before or after the FOMC, so we are kinda in "no man's land" until we see a clear breakdown or be sure that the B wave up is finished. Sometimes it's best to just wait until after the FOMC meeting is over to see what the real direction is. The main thing is that we should still have a low this Thursday or Friday. So a rally up to say that 2060 area is a short in my opinion.
I tend to think we'll start down and break the 2040 area of support but I just don't have any clear picture to increase the odds to one side or the other. It's just a flip of coin right now as to where the market will go ahead of the meeting. After the meeting I'd look to go long around that 2010 support zone or short around the 2060 resistance. Everything in between is too hard to trade.
Futures have fallen to the first zone of support in the 2040's
MACD's are into oversold areas and looking ready to turn back up.
Today we'll see if the market can rally up to backtest the lower rising trendline that it broke overnight, which if that happens near the close and the 60 minute and 2 hour charts look overbought then that suggests we had an A wave down yesterday and early today with the expected rally up making the B wave. This leaves a C wave down into a Thursday/Friday low.
If we continue down then the next support zone is in the 2000-2010 area, but charts suggest we turn back up today... probably after some early up and down chop as the MACD's make the turn upward. This could last for a few hours in the morning but as long as this area holds (between 2030-2040) it should turn up later today and make a lower high going into the close.
Remember guys that this is the week before the monthly options expiration and a low is commonly put in on the Thurs/Fri of this week. Then the next week when options expiration happens you commonly see the market rally up to make all the retail traders hold puts lose as they expire worthless. It's the old "steal from the poor and give to the rich" motto. This suggests that we'll go lower this week and rally some next week. So if we rally up today to backtest prior support then it's very likely a short into Wednesday and Thursday... if not Friday too.
MACD's on this 2 hour chart also look like they want to go down.
Well, here we are again starting a new week with a market that just doesn't want to die. But we all know the bull is near an end... at least for a nice week or so correction, but probably much more. Today though is another Monday where volume will probably be very light again, just like several past Mondays. Our target on the upside is the 2080-2090 zone on the SPX (of course the 2100 level is a huge magnet but also a huge resistance). So on this futures chart that's probably the 2075-2085 zone.
Considering how close we are to that zone I'd think we'll hit it today or Tuesday to top this market out. Naturally the first move down will have dip buyers come in so it's likely going to be later in the week before we likely see some 30-50 point down day (or even next week?). I do see it coming but as we all know most tops are choppy and don't fall off a cliff right off the bat. So once we top out today or Tuesday (again, just the most likely days to top... not guaranteed of course) I'd look for the 2040 zone as first support on the first move down. Then the 2000-2010 zone.
As for today... well, we all know how overbought the market is, so I'm not shorting it until I see if first... we hit my target zone, or second... we don't hit it but rollover to find support around 2040 and then rally back up to make a lower high, which only then will I short it. Plus we still haven't hit the FP's on the SPY, IWM and Apple... and we are so close to the IMW and Apple one's that I just can't see some huge move down start until they are first hit and fulfilled. Needless to say but we could be in for another boring slow day of grind.
The 2040 support area is now being hit, if it breaks then the next support zone is the 2025-2030 area.
MACD's are already below zero on this 2 hour chart and down to -2.5 on the 60 minute chart.
The market continued to slide into the NFP report, which missed by 50k jobs... meaning unemployment rose more then expected. It's a joke anyway with that number as the real numbers are probably 4-5 times that... but anyway, the futures are hitting that rising trendline of support around the 2040 area that I mentioned yesterday. Normally the market will do the opposite the rest of the day from the initial reaction from the NFP report announcement. So, since we went down first it would imply we drift back up the rest of the day. But with this market so overbought, and it being the last day of this week (plus the first day of the new month), we might just see the big boys take the rest of the day off by noon and any rally back up get reversed back down later in the day.
So my thinking is this... if the trendline holds (again, around 2040) then we should grind back up for at least the first half the day, if not all the way until the last hour or two. At that point there's a chance there could be some late day selling where traders don't want to hold over the weekend. A slow sideways grind back up should make a nice bear flag that might play out into the close. The SPX cash is very overbought as well so while they don't have to let it drop off a cliff (as we all know the market is VERY manipulated) they also do not have anything from a technical point of view to suggest any powerful move up today or even on Monday. If they refuse to let it tank then we could be range bound from 2060 high (2072 on the SPX) down to possibly 2000 for most of next week, or at least early on.
Naturally this is based on technical analysis and while that's being heavily manipulated right now on the smaller time frames I think it much hard to do that on the daily and weekly charts, which clearly suggest either a pullback or sideways chop for 3-5 days. April is apparently the most bullish month of the year so possibly that might keep the market from tanking huge, but upside looks very limited to me... (again, for the next 3-5 days due to charts that need to reset their overbought conditions).
Ok, as I was writing this the trendline broke, so next support is the 2035-2030 area, then around 2015 on the futures. Same as above on the forecast, I'm expecting a turn back up shortly after the open after the early selling dries up. Again though, the upside looks limited and might just grind sideways most of the day setting up a bear flag for late in the day or next Monday.
As all of you know in the chatroom I had my computer crash on me Wednesday morning and wasn't able to do a morning update chart. It's back up now as you can see (although I do still have a bad drive that caused the crash) and it I didn't miss much. On Tuesday I thought we'd chop around inside that triangle and then breakdown to head into a low between the 1980-2000 range by this Friday. But the market had other plans it seems as it broke to the upside after Janet Yellen spoke and squeezed out a lot of shorts when it cleared that 20240 area of resistance.
So, where does that leave us now? As I've mentioned before we have 3 FP's that are now getting much closer to being hit. One on the SPY of course, then another on IMW and one on Apple. Quite honestly those FP's are the only thing I can use for a target now as we are so overbought on technical analysis side of things that it's pointless to keep saying that we "should rollover" or "a pullback is near", because we are clearly in one of those periods where the market is just too manipulated. I'd guess that technical analysis works about 80% of the time with the other 20% being periods like now where you just "buy the dip" until it creams you. (Not that I'm doing that as I'm just waiting to short).
When will these FP's get hit? I'd love to see them all hit today but it doesn't seem likely, at least not for the SPY. Maybe Apple and IWM could squeeze up that high but the one on the SPY is still a good move away. There's the FOMC Minutes (Meeting of March 15-16, 2016) next Wednesday, April 6th at 2:00 p.m. ET that "could" be the time we hit all the FP's, or possibly one more big squeeze tomorrow (Friday) from the Nonfarm Payrolls Report at 8:30 am (EST) that might produce that move? As for today... overbought, overbought, overbought is all I can say! But even if we pullback I'm not going to be too excited on a bigger trend change until those FP's on the upside are hit. Whether that happens Friday or next week I'm not taking any big positions short until then.
The triangle I drew yesterday still seems to be in play for now with the futures hitting the bottom area of the triangle this morning.
The MACD's are showing signs of weakness as the rally back up yesterday only took them from -5 to just a hair over the zero line.
Looking at the triangle pattern we have right now on the futures and looking at the 60 minute and daily chart on the SPX cash it's hard to be bullish. The SPX 60 minute chart yesterday ended with a nice bear flag, which the futures had too but have already broken down from it at the 4:00 am open (EST). However, the lower rising trendline of support of that triangle is holding for now.
Today starts the last 3 days of this month and the quarter, which is a time period when big institutions usually lock in gains... which means some selling should happen. It's their quarterly report to their stock holders and clients (the dumb sheep that put money in with them like their 401k plans, etc...) and there's some rule that requires them to have held a stock for at least 3 days for them to say on the report that that owned it. So these big companies will gamble with the sheeps' money for 87 of 90 days and the last 3 days buy something safe and conservative (maybe bonds or treasures?) so they can legally tell the sheep that their money was safely invested.
Anyway, I'm looking for some selling over the next 3 days with a downside target of the 1980 area where there is a lot of prior support from sideways consolation zone that happened from around March 1st to March 10th. Somewhere in that zone is where I expect this market to go to by this Friday. The rising trendline of support looks ready to breakdown today from a technical picture but in reality nothing much is going to happen until the big boys hit the sell button. So let's see if that happens today or not.
A new study on the gender pay gap internationally suggests that, well, it exists. And while this may not be news to economists and female employees alike, last week’s study by Glassdoor also suggests this gap shrinks when controlling for other non-gender-related factors such as occupation, industry, and experience.
The US is notorious for its sizable gender pay gap. In a 2014 report by the World Economic Forum, the US ranked 65th in wage equality among 142 countries.
But Glassdoor takes their recent analysis further, comparing the unexplained factors (presumed to be gender bias) between several developed countries. And in this comparison, the gender pay gap becomes pretty much even internationally, with the US falling in the middle of the pack.
“The ‘unexplained’ part is less than half in every country Glassdoor Research looked at, suggesting overt discrimination alone does not explain most of today’s gender pay gap,” Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist for Glassdoor, tells ABC News.
“The sorting of men and women into different occupations has emerged as one of the main drivers of the gender pay gap – a factor that has little to do with overt bias and reflects complex social pressures that divert women into some professions and away from others,” adds Dr. Chamberlain. “This points to the need for societal and public policy solutions that address these more subtle causes of gender pay differences.”
Chamberlain emphasizes that the encouraging numbers offered from the adjusted pay gap analysis does not mean that a problem doesn’t exist. For example, even though the gender pay gap shrinks when accounting for the lower proportion of women who work in a certain occupation, there are likely other entry barriers and social pressures that prohibited more women from entering a specific industry in the first place. Also noteworthy, the occupations with the biggest pay gaps are also the highest paid.
“For a whole bunch of reasons, through the education system and the workplace, women are being pushed into different kinds of roles,” Chamberlain tells Reuters. “This is the single largest factor we see contributing to today’s gender pay gap.”
But this recent study suggests that overt workplace bias may be more prominent in other countries compared to the US. Because although the gender pay gap is narrower in Australia and Germany than in the UK and the US, a larger proportion of it is unexplained in these two countries.
Sixty-seven percent of the gender pay gap in the US is ‘explained’ due to worker differences, and the remaining 33 percent is ‘unexplained,’ suggesting possible workplace gender bias. But this ratio is more prominent in other countries: 36 percent of the United Kingdom’s gender pay gap is unexplained, compared to 39 percent in Australia and 49 percent in Germany. France is the only country that has fewer unexplained sources than the US, at 29 percent.
In other words, the gender pay gap in the US is significant, but we can explain it: It stems from systemic problems in society such as educational access. Is that better than a smaller gender pay gap that can’t be economically explained? This is the question that Chamberlain, other economists, and world leaders might look to next.
Announces,Assumes on Mar 24th, 2016. The stock’s target price stayed the same, and is $56
DOW CHEMICAL last announced dividends on 02/11/2016 which are be paid on 04/29/2016. Dividend amount is $0.46, and yield is 3.77%. Dividend amount in the last 12 months was 1.72, and the annual dividend over 3, 5 and 10 years were $1.51, $1.33 and $1.27 respectively. Ex-date is 03/29/2016 and recorded date is 03/31/2016. Dividend payout frequency is Quarterly.
DOW CHEMICAL (NYSE:DOW) direction will announce earnings 04/28/2016. Zacks commenced a poll and after conclusion said the earnings of the firm are targeted to be $0.82 per share for the current quarter. This range given by Zacks and FactSet gains estimates may differ.
DOW CHEMICAL posted EPS of $.82 for the quarter ended on Wednesday 30th Sep 2015. These numbers were above the Street’s estimates and $.93 away from Street pros’ consensus, which led in a variation of 32.86%.
Deviations of real gains from forecast numbers have a significant impact on a firm’s share price. As of now, analysts anticipate DOW CHEMICAL stock to attain $51.9 in forthcoming year. This amount is achieved by asking as many as 10 analysts in research. The estimated price range for this financial is put in between $46.0 and $56.0. These financial estimations were last changed on 2016-02-19.
The analysts of different companies have different methods of company analysis. Any investors unacquainted with a particular research entity may neglect to grasp thesestock recommendations.So, Zacks has developed a unique analyst brokerage rating scale of 1-5. The purchasing proposition lowers as cost evaluation shifts from one to five.
The Dow Chemical Company combines the power of science and technology to passionately innovate what is essential to human progress. The Company connects chemistry and innovation with the principles of sustainability to help address many of the problems, such as the need for clean water, renewable energy generation and conservation, and increasing agricultural productivity. The Company conducts its worldwide operations through global businesses, which are reported in six operating segments: Electronic and Functional Materials, Coatings and Infrastructure Solutions, Agricultural Sciences, Performance Materials, Performance Plastics, and Feedstocks and Energy. In December 2013, W. R. Grace & Co announced that it has completed the acquisition of the assets of the Polypropylene Licensing and Catalysts business of The Dow Chemical Company.
Microsoft (MSFT) is in preliminary talks with private equity firms about helping finance a bid to buy embattled Internet company Yahoo (YHOO), according to media reports.
Private equity executives approached Microsoft to gauge the communications and computing giant's financial interest as Yahoo auctions its core businesses, Reuters reported Saturday.
Microsoft's potential involvement as a potential financial backer of a deal is aimed at preserving its longstanding search and advertising agreements with Yahoo, Reuters said.
Peggy Johnson, head of Microsoft's partnerships and acquisitions strategy, is part of the Yahoo discussions with private equity firms, according to an earlier report by tech news and analysis site Re/code. Yahoo is seeking $10 billion for its core businesses, the report said.
Microsoft did not immediately respond to an email Sunday seeking comment. The Redmond, Wash.-based company mounted a previous Yahoo purchase effort led by former chief executive Steve Ballmer, but scrapped that plan in 2008.
Sunnyvale, Calif.-based Yahoo's auction plan potentially includes the company's advertising, search technology, Yahoo Sports and Tumblr blogging platform. Although Yahoo was an early leader in Internet search, it has struggled to compete as rivals Google and Facebook captured major shares in its online and mobile markets.
Yahoo announced the auction plan in December, after abandoning an effort to spin off its estimated $30 billion-plus stake in Chinese online marketplace company Alibaba (BABA). The cancellation was reportedly sparked by concerns that an eventual sale could trigger a hefty U.S. tax bill.
Some investors, including Starboard Value, a New York-based hedge fund that holds a 1.7% Yahoo stake, have complained that the Internet company has moved too slowly to revamp its business model and generate new revenue.
Starboard on Thursday announced an effort to oust Yahoo's board of directors — including CEO Marissa Mayer — in a potential proxy battle at the Internet company's annual shareholders meeting later this year. Starboard CEO Jeffrey Smith said telecom giant Verizon Communications (VZ) recently said it had yet to receive information from Yahoo in response to Verizon's potential bidding interest.
Other potential buyers in a Yahoo auction are said to include Alibaba, telecom giant AT&T (T), cable and broadband provider Comcast (CCV), U.S. entertainment powerhouse Walt Disney (DIS) and Japanese telecom company SoftBank Group.
The level of global investment into renewable energy hit an all-time high in 2015 — with the collective tab nearly breaking the $286 billion mark — according to a new report published by the UN Environment Programme, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, and the Frankfurt School.
The rapidly rising investment figures are partly the result of the continuing drop in solar and wind energy development costs — meaning that, as development prices continue to fall, investment figures should continue to rise as well.
In order to avoid many of the expected negatives of anthropogenic climate change, such investments will need to grow considerably more than they have to date, though. So, despite the good news of the new record, things aren’t quite where they need to be.
The new record (which doesn’t factor investments into large-scale hydroelectric projects into the equations) represents a notable increase from the previous record of $278.5 billion, set back in 2011. It also represents a large lead over the fossil fuel power plant investments for the year, which came in at $130 billion.
Many of the countries that are referred to as being “developing countries” led the charge towards renewable energy investment — with India, China, and Brazil together putting $156 billion into renewable energy investment in 2015 (a 19% rise over the previous year). $103 billion of this was solely from China (a 17% rise over the previous year).
Solar and wind energy generation plant installations hit an all-time high in 2015 as well — with a total of 118 gigawatts (GW) installed during the year.
“Although 2015 was a landmark year with the signing of the Paris agreement, the good news about renewables uptake is still not nearly enough to stabilize emissions below the 2°C trajectory,” noted Eric Usher, chief of the UN Environment Programme Finance Initiative.
Climate Central explains:
Solar, wind and other low-carbon electricity sources have prevented 1.5 gigatons of greenhouse gases from being emitted per year over the past decade compared to a global electric power system running mostly on fossil fuels, he said. To reach the 2°C goal, annual emissions need to be cut an additional 10 gigatons by 2020.
That’s a huge challenge, Usher said, because many coal-fired power plants currently in use are built to last 40 years or more, and many have 20 or more years of life left in them, making it unlikely utilities will shut them down anytime soon.
“Despite ambitious signals from COP21 in Paris and the growing capacity of new installed renewable energy, there is still a long way to go,” commented Frankfurt School President Udo Steffens. “Coal-fired power stations and other conventional power plants have long lifetimes. Without further policy interventions, climate-altering emissions of carbon dioxide will increase for at least another decade.”
And in all likelihood, longer than that. Pending theoretical aggressive action from world “leaders,” that is.
Image by UN Environment Programme
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Tags: Brazil, China, Frankfurt School, India, UN Environment Programme, UNEP
Revlon has named Colgate-Palmolive executive Fabian Garcia to serve as president and chief executive, an appointment that comes a month after the prior CEO stepped down for personal reasons.
On Monday, Revlon revsaid Garcia would officially become CEO on April 15 and would also serve on the company’s board of directors. He spent 13 years in leadership roles at Colgate-Palmolive cl, including a tenure running the consumer-products company’s businesses in various markets abroad. He also previously worked at Timberland, which is now owned by VF Corp. vfc, and Procter & Gamble pg.
Investors weren’t pleased with the news. Shares slipped about 7% in recent trading.
Revlon also disclosed in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that Garcia’s initial employment pact is for five years and he will be paid an annual base salary of no less than $1.5 million with a target annual bonus of 150% of his base salary. He will also receive a $2 million signing bonus and his compensation package also includes restricted stock grants down the road.
Garcia takes the mantle at Revlon from Lorenzo Delpani, who stepped down late last month. That news came about a month after Revlon Chairman Ron Perelman said he would seek alternatives for the company. Sales have been soft at Revlon as it faces a competitive environment in the cosmetics aisle, while the stock price has performed poorly of late. Shares have dropped 16% over the past year. Source link
Dell struck a deal to sell its IT services unit to Japan's NTT Data, which marks its first divestiture deal to raise cash for its EMC transaction.
Dell, EMC Deal: 10 Things IT Needs To Know
On Monday, March 28, Dell announced it is selling its IT services unit to NTT Data of Japan for more than $3 billion.
The sale of Dell Services marks the first and largest transaction the computer maker has taken on since it disclosed in December that Dell was considering divestitures to help offset its buyout of storage giant EMC, said Dell spokesman David Frink.
However, Frink cautioned that it's not fair to speculate that there will be more divestitures to come or that this will be the last, as the company moves forward with its EMC buyout deal that is valued at roughly $60 billion.
Quest Software and SonicWall were also reportedly being shopped around for $2 billion each, according to a Reuters report in December.
Dell's finding a new home for Dell Services will help ease some of the financial burden of the deal with EMC. According to Frink, that mega-deal with EMC is making progress, and is expected to close in the August to October time frame and on the original terms that the companies discussed. So far, the FTC and European Union have signed off on the transaction and there are a few more regulatory bodies that are needed to approve the deal.
The sale of Dell Services makes sense, said Sid Nag, Gartner's research director of cloud technology and service provider group.
"Dell has been looking to shed assets that don't line up with their strategy for their impending Dell-EMC merger, which will be focused on the enterprise systems and hardware market (server, storage, networking, private cloud), which includes cloud related systems," Nag said. "Dell Services is one such entity."
Additionally, Dell will get the cash flow from the sale that puts it closer to its proposed mega-buyout, as well as not having to lay off their services folks.
Dell Services currently includes three buckets: Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), Applications and Infrastructure, and Cloud Computing Services, which is not to be confused with its private cloud integrated systems. Dell's Application and Infrastructure and BPO services do not really have a place within the combined Dell-EMC company strategy, Nag said. The company's Cloud Computing Services, which were not doing well, would be an overlap to EMC's own cloud service, Virtustream.
NTT Data Deal
For Dell Services customers, they will get the benefit of a global player like NTT Data, which is focused on IT services, Nag said. He pointed out that NTT also acquired another services company when it snapped up Keane in 2010.
"This additional acquisition should provide Dell Services customers the confidence that they are being served by a company that is serious and focused on IT services as a whole," said Nag. "For NTT Data, this is a great opportunity to expand their global reach, including North America. Public Cloud services have been growing at a phenomenal 15% CAGR through 2019, as per Gartner's Cloud forecast. So, NTT Data sees this as an opportunity to capture a piece of that growth."
Although Dell will be receiving money from the sale of Dell Services, it is not walking away with a profit -- but rather a loss.
Back in 2009, Dell acquired Perot Systems for about $5 billion and is now selling it to NTT Data at a far lower price. Nonetheless, Dell founder, CEO, and chairman Michael Dell is pleased with the investment his company made in Perot Systems.
"I'm extremely proud of Dell Services' solid growth, broad capabilities and deep domain expertise in healthcare and life sciences, banking, financial services and insurance. Our investments in digital services, application modernization, tools, automation and 'as-a-service' models, have enabled Dell Services customers to simplify their IT environment, empower their workforce, engage their customers and grow," Dell said in a statement. "Together, NTT DATA and Dell Services will be a winning combination for Dell Services customers, team members, and partners."
Although the NTT Data transaction will be subject to regulatory approvals, Dell says it anticipates it will close sometime this year.
Dawn Kawamoto is a freelance writer and editor. She is an award-winning journalist who has written and edited technology, management, leadership, career, finance, and innovation stories for such publications as CNET's News.com, TheStreet.com, AOL's DailyFinance, and The ... View Full Bio
U.S. economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter, but not as sharply as previously estimated, with fairly strong consumer spending offsetting the drag from efforts by businesses to reduce an inventory overhang.
Gross domestic product increased at a 1.4 percent annual rate instead of the previously reported 1.0 percent pace, the Commerce Department said on Friday in its third GDP estimate.
People are seen walking through Roosevelt Field shopping mall in Garden City, New York February 22, 2015. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Relatively strong consumer spending underscores the economy's underlying strength and should further allay fears of a recession, which triggered a massive stock market sell-off early this year. That, together with a tightening labor market and rising inflation likely keeps the Federal Reserve on a path to gradually raise interest rates this year.
"The consumer is back in the driver's seat. There is no sign of recession in these data so this will put a smile on Fed officials' faces and argues for their policy of gradual interest rate normalization to continue," said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York.
GDP growth was initially estimated to have risen at only a 0.7 percent rate. The economy grew at a 2.0 percent pace in the third quarter and expanded 2.4 percent for all of 2015.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose at a 2.4 percent pace and not the 2.0 percent rate reported last month. More consumption of services than previously estimated accounted for the revision.
Spending is being supported by rising wages as the jobs markets tightens, as well as firming house prices. Gasoline prices around $2 per gallon are also helping to underpin household discretionary spending.
The dollar was trading marginally higher against a basket of currencies. The U.S. stock and Treasury debt markets were closed for Good Friday.
Fourth-quarter inventory investment was revised lower. Still, inventories remain high relative to domestic demand.
Businesses accumulated $78.3 billion worth of inventory rather than the $81.7 billion reported last month. As a result, inventories subtracted 0.22 percentage point from GDP growth instead of the previously reported 0.14 percentage point.
First-quarter GDP growth estimates are around a 1.5 percent rate. But with the inventory pile still large and shipments of capital goods ordered by businesses weak in January and February, the risks to growth are tilted to the downside.
There was some bad news in the GDP report, with corporate profits falling for a second straight quarter as a strong dollar and cheap oil undercut the earnings of multinational and energy companies.
Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments declined at an annual rate of 8.4 percent, the biggest drop since the first quarter of 2014, after falling at a 1.7 percent pace in the third quarter.
For all of 2015 profits dropped 5.1 percent, the largest decline since 2008, after slipping 0.6 percent in 2014.
Profits from current production fell $159.6 billion after decreasing $33.0 billion in the third quarter. Part of the drop was due to a $20.8 billion transfer payment related to the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, which was the largest-ever U.S. offshore oil spill.
But even accounting for the oil spill settlement, which translated to an $83.2 billion rate of decline in profits, earnings were still weak. Profits from the rest of the world fell $6.5 billion after decreasing $23.1 billion in the third quarter.
Manufacturing profits tumbled $139.2 billion during the last quarter after falling by only $4.1 billion in the July-September period. Profits in the petroleum and coal products sector plunged $124.3 billion after rising $7.0 billion in the third quarter.
"This poor performance reflects energy firms struggling with lower oil prices and manufacturing firms hit by the strong dollar," said Jesse Edgerton, an economist at JPMorgan in New York. "But it also likely reflects the beginnings of a profit margin squeeze driven by tighter labor markets, rising wages, and weak productivity growth."
The dollar gained 10.5 percent last year versus the currencies of the United States' main trading partners, putting a squeeze on the profits of multinationals such as Procter & Gamble and Colgate-Palmolive .
A more than 60 percent plunge in crude oil prices from highs above $100 a barrel in June 2014 has also weighed on the profits of oilfield service firms like Schlumberger and Halliburton.
Martin Schulz, Mark Zuckerberg and Mathias Doepfner attend the presentation of the first Axel Springer Award on February 25, 2016 in Berlin, Germany.(Photo: Pool, Getty Images)
Online music service Pandora (P) is looking to tap the power of the founder CEO - for good reason.
Pandora , a company that allows consumers to stream music over the Internet, Monday named founder Tim Westergren as its CEO. The company seems to be looking to take advantage of a corporate trend: Companies managed by their founders have had the edge. The 19 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 with current CEOs also reported as founders or co-founders, including social media giant Facebook (FB), online video service Netflix (NFLX) and sports apparel maker Under Armour (UA), on average have gained 95% over the past three years, according to a USA TODAY analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. That performance absolutely blows away the 30% gain by the S&P 500.
Pandora is the latest company turning to the leadership of a past founder to help it get its mojo back. Westergren, a composer and record producer, founded the company in 2000. Westergren takes the helm back from Brian McAndrews who was CEO starting in September 2013. Prior to joining Pandora, McAndrews was a top executive at a variety of companies such as Disney's (DIS) ABC, General Mills (GIS) and online advertising company aQuantive. But he wasn't a founder. Shares of Pandora have lost a third of their value over the past year. The company continues to lose money on an unadjusted basis and missed earnings estimates in the December quarter by a stunning 43%.
It's unclear if Westergren can get the company moving again, but founders do have a great track record. Facebook lately has been the best example. Facebook, which is still lead by its visionary CEO Mark Zuckerberg, has continually been at least one step ahead of its competition in one of the most hotly competitive areas of technology: social media. Zuckerberg first navigated the company from the shift from desktop computing to mobile. Also Monday, Facebook's Oculus kicked off the virtual reality trend by releasing its Oculus Rift headset to consumers. Facebook also had the foresight to buy online messaging service Instagram, which has proven a masterstroke as that service is catching on with the generation younger than Millennials.
The situation at Starbucks (SBUX) was also a strong one that shows the power of a found. The coffee chain's growth and stock price were given a jolt when founder Howard Schultz returned as CEO in early 2008. Shares of the stock are up 222% over the past five years, trouncing the S&P 50.
Returning founder CEOs tend to reinvigorate companies, like Starbucks, but founder CEOs are also very effective at young companies. says Shaker Zahra, professor of entrepreneurship at the University of Minnesota. "There's a connection between a company (with a founder as CEO) and the motivation to build a name and a reputation, and also make money," he says. That's certainly been the case with the 19 S&P 500 companies with founders at the helm. Not only have these companies' shares outperformed as a group the past three years - but 14 of the 19 have individually beaten the market, too.
Longer term, the outperformance of companies with CEOs who are also founders is also strong. There are 16 current members of the S&P 500 where the CEO has also been the founder going back at least five years. Over the past five years, these stocks have gained an average of 170% - which crushes the 56% gain of the S&P 500 during that time. Even some of the stocks that have lagged in the past three and five years, such as Wynn Resorts (WYNN) have been solid performers even longer term. Wynn Resorts' shares are down 26% over the past three years on weakness in Asia. But investors that stuck with Stephen Wynn's company since its first day of trading in October 2002 are up 618% - topping the 127% gain by the S&P 500.
The positive influence of CEO founders holds even longer-term and by a solid margin. Between 1993 and 2002, the 11% of largest public U.S. firms headed by CEOs who founded the company rewarded with investors with excess annual returns of 8.3% compared with benchmarks, according to a study by Rudiger Fahlenbrach, while a professor at the University of Washington, Seattle. Fahlenbrach found companies with CEO founders made more investments aimed at the long-term sustainability of the business, including higher spending on research and development and higher capital expenditures. These companies were also more disciplined with mergers and acquisitions.
Time will tell if Westergren can help Pandora gets its groove back. But it's probably best to give the founder the benefit of the doubt.
S&P 500 COMPANIES CURRENT WITH FOUNDERS AS CEO
CEO/Founder, company, symbol, 3-year % ch.
Zuckerberg, Mark, Facebook, FB, 345.2%
Hastings, Reed, Netflix, NFLX, 274.3%
Plank, Kevin A., Under Armour, UA, 225.0%
Huang, Jen-Hsun, NVIDIA, NVDA, 172.3%
Bezos, Jeffrey P., Amazon.com, AMZN, 118.6%
Schultz, Howard D., Starbucks, SBUX, 108.6%
Schleifer, Leonard S., Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, REGN, 108.3%
Wexner, Leslie H., L Brands, LB, 94.6%
Bidzos, D. James, VeriSign, VRSN, 87.1%
Smith, Frederick W., FedEx, FDX, 64.3%
Benioff, Marc R., salesforce.com, CRM, 61.3%
Leighton, F. Thomson, Akamai Technologies, AKAM, 55.4%
This new downward sloping trendline has been hit now and the futures pulled back from it.
The MACD's finally went negative Friday and are now back up above the zero level.
Trying to "think like SkyNet" is tough but it looks like it went up after Friday's close and this mornings' open to clear out some bears by hitting there stops. I've saw this pattern many times in the past where the market first clears out stops (bulls or bears) in the afterhours session and then opens and goes the direction of the stops cleared... in this case, down.
This week is also commonly a bearish week, we should increase the odds for the falling trendline to hold the bulls back. I'd remain short (if shorted from last Fridays' close) unless that falling trendline is broken through and the overnight high of 2040, which at that point odds would suggest this is just another small pullback within a very long and stretched out rally.
If we start down then I'd look for the prior low on Friday (just a hair over 2010) for support. Considering that Monday's have been very light volume days recently... and the added fact that it's the first day back for traders after a 3 day Easter holiday weekend, we could see some churn back up and down today.
It's not uncommon to see triangle patterns made in the market during light volume periods. I've added in another rising trendline to make that triangle, so let's see if it respects both trendlines of it and bounces back and forth today between them.
Looks like the overhead resistance was too much for the bulls as the market finally gave rolled over yesterday. I'd like to see a retrace back up to hit the 2040 area where there's a new falling trendline of resistance but I doubt if we get it today. If so, I'd be a bear and short it over the 3-day weekend with a credit spread to let the time decay work in my favor.
So for today I'm looking for some kind of retrace back up to make a lower high. I just get the feeling they won't do much of a retracement back up as now they have the bulls trapped. But I'll wait patiently to see as next week should be down and we are still very early in this pullback, so there should be plenty of time to get a bounce to short at.
We are so overbought that I wouldn't expect much on the bounce side. Besides the new falling trendline there's the horizontal resistance around 2030, which I think will be strong on the way back up. The FP I have on the SPY probably won't be hit until the next turn date in mid-April from the looks of things today.
Next week is a bearish week and I really doubt if it can go up to that FP (about 70-80 points up on the SPX), so that suggests we bottom out early April and rally back up into mid-April... which works for me too. I'm just tired of watching paint dry and don't care what direction we go as long as I can trade it.
United States stock indexes closed mostly lower on Tuesday as shares of airlines, cruise companies and travel booking sites fell after the deadly bombings in Belgium.
News of the attacks, which killed more than 30 people, pulled the broader market lower for much of the morning. An early afternoon rally erased some of the losses, but the rebound didn’t hold.
Oil drilling companies also slumped after a downbeat forecast on drilling. Health care and technology stocks gained ground.
The slide ended a four-day market winning streak. Trading was relatively light, reflecting the approaching Easter holiday weekend. It also signaled that traders were not rattled by the potential market implications of the attack.
“What happens is investors and traders go in and start to bottom-fish on sectors that have sold off,” said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial. “It flies in the face of the headlines and the human cost of these terrorist attacks, but the stock markets tend to turn around.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index dipped 1.80 points, or 0.1 percent, to 2,049.80. The Nasdaq composite added 12.79 points, or 0.3 percent, to 4,821.66.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 41.30 points, or 0.2 percent, to 17,582.57.
The major European stock markets declined early on, but ultimately closed higher. The DAX in Germany rose 0.4 percent, while the CAC-40 in France edged up 0.1 percent. The FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was up 0.1 percent. In Belgium, the BEL 20 index rose 0.2 percent.
In the United States, travel-related companies slumped. Royal Caribbean Cruises shed $2.24, or 2.9 percent, to $75.99, while Carnival lost $1.03, or 2.1 percent, to $48.75. The American Airlines Group fell 71 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $42.76. Delta Air Lines fell 73 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $49.39.
The travel website operators Priceline Group and Expedia also fell. Priceline slid $31.10, or 2.3 percent, to $1,319.41, and Expedia lost $1.96, or 1.8 percent, to $108.92.
“The only sector that appears to be truly suffering, naturally, is anything having to do with travel,” said J. J. Kinahan, chief strategist for TD Ameritrade.
Transocean also slumped on Tuesday. The oil drilling company shed 53 cents, or 5 percent, to $10 after its leaders said they did not expect drilling to increase anytime soon. The outlook weighed on other drillers. Ensco lost 32 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $11.01, and Helmerich & Payne slid $1.12, or 1.8 percent, to $59.86.
Other stocks fared better. Staples climbed 6.3 percent to close at $10.30. The company recovered some of its losses from a day earlier, when a court battle over the office supply chain’s proposed merger with Office Depot began.
Markets in Asia were mixed. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 climbed 1.9 percent, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong shed early gains, sliding 0.1 percent. The South Korean Kospi gained 0.4 percent, while the S&P ASX in Australia 200 edged up 0.1 percent.
n energy trading, benchmark United States crude oil slipped 7 cents to settle at $41.45 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, the benchmark for international oil, rose 25 cents, to $41.79 a barrel in London.
In other energy trading, wholesale gasoline added 4 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $1.50 a gallon, and heating oil rose a penny to $1.25 a gallon. Natural gas added 4 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $1.86 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Government bond prices fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.94 percent from 1.92 percent late Monday. The euro fell to $1.1216 from $1.1251, and the dollar rose to 112.33 yen from 111.86.
Not much to say here guys that hasn't been said several times in the last week or so. Until we see some serious breakdown it looks like it's just going to continue to grind up until it hits the FP on the SPY from several weeks back. Today could be a breakout day from the looks of where the futures are now. Several days of consolation usually leads to a breakout, so we wait some more... and more, and more.
On the downside we have the same support zone around the 2020 area as pointed out yesterday. Next week is usually bearish as big institutions tend so sell near the end of the month to close out the quarter, so we need to hit that FP soon I think, or else we risk pulling back small next week and making another run up into mid-April. Personally I'd like to see them hit now so the next move down can be a big one. But SkyNet rules and will do whatever hurts the most traders. For me, I'm a patient bear just napping until the upside target is hit.
Geopolitical concerns came back to the stock market on Tuesday, and investors reacted negatively to news of bombings in the Belgian capital of Brussels that reawakened fears of terrorist activity across the European continent. Major market benchmarks regained much of the ground they lost during the early part of the day, but they nevertheless closed with losses of as much as a quarter percent. Even with the bad news hitting the market, some stocks still managed to buck the downtrend and produce solid gains on Tuesday. Among the top performers were Lumber Liquidators (NYSE:LL), Office Depot (NASDAQ:ODP), and Elbit Systems (NASDAQ:ESLT).
Lumber Liquidators jumped 16% in the wake of news that the flooring specialist had come to an agreement with the California Air Resources Board concerning inquiries about its laminate flooring products. The company said that the deal "fully resolves" the regulatory inquiry and that the California agency has concluded its review without making a formal finding of wrongdoing or violations. Lumber Liquidators will pay $2.5 million as part of the deal, and it also agreed to voluntary compliance procedures in order to ensure that the regulator's standards regarding formaldehyde are met. What investors especially liked was the fact that the California body expressly recognized Lumber Liquidators' efforts as well as the lack of evidence of actual harm. If the deal can repair Lumber Liquidators' damaged reputation, then it could go a long way toward making the company more viable in the long run.
Office Depot rose 10% as Federal Trade Commission hearings regarding the competitive impact of the office supply store chain's proposed merger with rival Staples continued. The FTC is concerned that allowing the two companies to merge would effectively create a near-monopoly in segments of the office supply market, especially that part of the market that aims at large corporate customers. For its part, Office Depot has argued that e-commerce retail specialists are already taking aim at the market and could pose a much larger threat in the near future, necessitating the merger as a means of survival. Given that the hearings could last two weeks or longer, investors will be on edge and looking for any clues of what the eventual resolution will be. Office Depot's positive stock performance suggests that investors at least find the pro-merger argument more compelling.
Finally, Elbit Systems climbed 8%. The Israeli defense technology specialist released its fourth-quarter financial report Tuesday morning, and revenue rose 4% from the year-ago quarter, helping to produce adjusted earnings of $1.74 per share. CEO Butzi Machlis was especially pleased with the company's record backlog of $6.6 billion, and he believes that the European market has shown encouraging signs of emerging from its recessionary conditions. In addition, Elbit Systems has focused its attention on the Asia-Pacific region, and the defense tech provider believes that the region could become an important growth driver in the future as well.
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Corporate headquarters of insurer Health Net Inc. in Woodland Hills, California.
Shares of health insurer Centene gained more than 4 percent after the firm announced it had received approval for its $6.3 billion acquisition of Health Net from health insurance officials at the California Department of Managed Health Care (DHMC), one of two regulatory agencies in the state needed to sign off on the deal.
"We think the approval from the DMHC reflects significant momentum in the regulatory approval process," said Susquehanna analyst Chris Rigg in a research note to clients. He said key concessions the firms offered for approval, included maintaining Health Net's operations and headquarters in the state, and investing more than $300 million in programs and infrastructure to improve health care for low-income Californians.
"We believe the conditions imposed by the DMHC are in line with the companies' expectations," Rigg said.
Final approval of Centene and Health Net's merger now rests with the California Department of Insurance (DOI). The department of justice signed off on the deal last August, terminating its antitrust review early.
"Centene and Health Net expect to close the transaction shortly after receipt of approval from the California Department of Insurance, subject to satisfaction or waiver of the closing conditions," the two firms said in a press release announcing the deal. Source link
