No Post for Friday Gang...
I'll save it for the Weekend Post.
The Bull got rescued today, (by the PPT of course). Â It seems that a bear slipped up on his last night while he was sleeping, and pushed him down a hole. Â Hurt and bruised up a little, the bull finally got his mojo back and charged higher into the close.
These bear attacks are becoming more frequent now, and the bull is getting tired and falling asleep while standing. Â The bull needs to be careful where he stands as a cliff is nearby his grazing area, and one missed step could result in a one steep fall.
At this point, the bulls are up against a whole lot of resistance from multiple trendlines, all intersecting about where we are now. Â A big move is coming soon, because it has too... The bulls must gap above all the overhead resistance and go make a new high, or give up and jump off the cliff.
It's really that simple.  Steep sell off down, or jump over the major resistance overhead.  Everyone seems too be long here, as they all expect 1228 to be the next level the market is going too.  That's the 61.8% fib. retracement from the March, 2009 low to the 2007 high.  But, you know the old saying... if everyone is expecting it to happen, it won't happen.
So we are at a crossroads again.  Either we must go above the current resistance, to trap the bears that will go short at the level, or sell off before reaching it, to trap the bulls that are waiting to sell at that level.  Someone is going to get burnt... who will it be?  The Bull or the Bear? (In the end, you know it will be BOTH!).
Red
Good article.
Thanks Midas…
I think it's just the market makers playing games, to shake out both the bulls and bears, before they take her down.
I've been thinking…
The Euro is taking a beating in after-hours, setting a new low. The $USD is nearing the recent highs at 82.
Treasuries are up, the $USD is up, and equities are up. Oil's been beat up a little off the recent highs (but I think that's next to go up). Normally, all of these things never go up at the same time. The only way that can happen is for massive liquidity coming in to the markets.
I don't think it is the PPT. I think the reason for the levitation in the markets recently is that smart money in Europe is moving to the US markets in some sort of flight-to-more-safety bid. If a volcano was blowing up in the next state over, I'd seriously look at moving my $$$ to some sort of foreign index fund, too.
Well Dread…
That's about the best explanation I've heard, for why everything is going up together. I also thought that was really weird. It's all “out of sync”, as that's not the way the market normally behaves.
Something is going on, that's for sure. Not sure if you answer is the main reason, but it makes the most sense at this point.
Thinking outside the box a little… what if the government has sucked in all the local retail money that they can, and decided they need more money in the market, and the only money left was overseas.
How do you get the overseas money to move to America? Simple… turn on HARPP and cause a Volcano to erupt, which doesn't kill anyone, but causes major financial troubles.
Those smart business people will move their money elsewhere. Of course foreign retail trader isn't that smart, so he will leave his money where it's at, and hope their market doesn't go down too far.
Now the America market has new cash, which could be the fuel needed to rally the market above the overhead resistance.
Question is… how much money moved to America, and how much higher will the market be able to rise with it?
Or maybe at market tops, everything just gets parabolic.
problems for both the bears & bulls
the bears now need a marginal new high on the $SPX & $DJI for a potential down-thrust to be deep
Why? We're now 8 calendar days into this 4.15 high, the past 3 down-thrusts terminated @ 17 CD, 12 CD, 9 CD.
the bulls are running out of time
today is 77 calendar days off 2.5.2010 low
the longest thrust of the 03'-07' bull mkt. terminated @ 81 CD.
9.23.2009 high terminated @ 77 CD
1.19.2010 high terminated @ 78 CD
Seems like we should know the direction shortly then.
bears want to see a new $SPX high today, 90 minutes left
Well we have 27 points left on the DJIA. You think we can make it?!
what's 27 points away? Is it the “magical fib level”
No – that would produce a new high on the DJIA.
refresh your computer, we got the new highs on both the $DJI & $SPX
Why do I show the 52 week high on the DJIA at 11217.30?
You think we can reverse without a new high on the DJIA?
Carl’s morning call:
June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1198 – 1210. I still think that the 1180 low ended the correction and that a swing to 1270 is now underway.
1186.25–1207 actual yesterday (20.75 points)
1197.5-1207 range last night (9.5 points)
1198-1210 estimate for today (12 points)
1204 currently, so estimate is -6 to +6 from here (neutral)
Yes I agree…
Look at oil market it is so crazy.
There is no element of doubt in anyone's mind that it has to be a bear market in oil….
but…..
prices seems to be going up…
BD,
Oil lately (since the realization that Katla is coming) has been falling.
Yet another buy-the-dip + short covering rally today in oil. I need to see a break of 40.50 today in USO or I might bail on my trade.
Just looking at the candles for today and yesterday, it does look like it wants to go up.
The next logical target is a touch of the 20 day MA. On USO, that is 40.79.
Carl is now Long one unit at 1202.25
GS keeps getting hit.
it's one sick puppy
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45462…
it lost red containment the past 2 days
it needs a miracle soon or a big flush is coming
GS closed near it's lows, while everything else went to the stratosphere
closed the VIX gap ……. again
Carl just sold long unit at 1207.25
for those that have been trading for 10-15 yrs know before a long term trend turns there will be a “tremor” that will set the set the stage for the coming change
before our high monthly close during the 2000 peak, we got a big “tremor” in May 2000
before our low monthly close during the 02' low, we got a big “tremor” in july 2002
before our high monthly close during the 07' high, we got a big “tremor” in august 2007
before our low monthly close during the 09', we got a “tremor” in November 2009
what we just experienced last week with the spike lower, followed by a vertical upward thrust is what gets played out on a much larger scale
Should the market put in a peak during 2010 the “tremor” event isn't far off time wise, meaning within the next 60 days.
I can feel the tremor already. My account balance has never been this high before. What do the brackets around the balance mean?
LOL, perfect
You got those bracket too? Yeah, and mine is in the color RED with a minus sign in front of it. Wonder what that means?
So what's the odds of us making it up to 11,816 within the next 60 days, before a sell off occurs?
i don't have enough of these setups to get a good sample size
we're only ~5.5% away form 11,816, so the finish line is near it's how long it takes to get there
next fridays monthly close will give us plenty of clues
large entity buying the $VIX into the close
Good because I have VIX calls.
The VIX has been gapping uip and down with fills soon after. The gap fill today looks bullish for the VIX…. ie, bearish for the markets.
Which VIX calls or puts? and at what strike price?
calls, don't know what strike price, got an email from a good business contact 5 minutes before the bell
Anybody else notice the ritual high on AAPL today
272.18
272 = 22/7 = Pi
18 = 666
Pi : Sun ritual
Yeah, but last time we had a ritual an AAPL, it proceeded to make another 10% move up!
well it held for 8 TD's
enough time for your calls to make some money
notice the final number on the $DJI +69.99
Yep, I pointed that out below. I'm catching on Sundancer! Have a good weekend all. I probably won't be around next week.
Good Luck!!!
Best Wishes!
If a boy, name him Taurus! 😀
If a girl, name her Bellerina! lol
Have a great week next week!
Yes Monica…
Have a good weekend, and name it Dragon if it's a boy, and name it Lioness if it's a girl. LOL
Oh so they hit the number. Now what does that mean for the next trading day or two? up or down
down
22 is “literally” divided by 7
I added and got a different result
Carl at day’s end:
1198-1210 estimate for today (12 points)
1201.25–1213.75 actual today (12.50 points)
Today was about 3.50 higher than Carl on the low and the high.
Trade: In /ES at 1202.25, out at 1207.25.
A gain of 5 points out of a range of 12.5 – 40% of the potential
Grade: B (made some money)
SPY lehman gap = 121.63
what's scary is look at the SPY candle sequence the thursday & friday before lehman, then the candle sequence from yesterday & today.
this is freaky
4.21 – 4.23.2010 : 9.10 -9.12 2009 lehman
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45466…
I've never seen you so bearish before… something wicked must comes this way!
the behavior this week has been odd, to say the least
climatic action in AAPL
Parabola on IWM
$DJI closes the week above it's open in the face of 98% odds (Now it's got 8 consecutive higher closes than opens on it's weekly)
GS looks like a sick puppy
$VIX still won't take out it's 4.12 low
$SPX & $DJI make new highs 77 cd from 2.5.2010
Sundancer, I was studying your 3 day candlestick pattern (9-10 to 9-12 2008) before the Lehman crash the following Monday on 9-15-08. It looks to me as you mention that Thursday and Friday had the same candlestick patterns as we saw at the end of the week we just concluded but back in 2008, the Wednesday before (Sept 10th 2007) was a green candlestick whereas this time (April 23rd) was a red candlestick? So does a 2 day repeat pattern hold any value?
The market must drop next week for a continued rise to new highs in May. If next week to two the market continues to rise it could get real ugly.
We are now in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA, but we are now trading TNA, as it is going up, and TZA is not.
AmericanBulls had TZA with a Wait signal for today, with this trade in cash. Under AmericanBull’s Wait rules, nothing could have triggered a BUY, so this trade remained in cash. TNA was a hold, and under severely modified (by me) rules, this trade bought TNA at the opening price. I did the same in real life so it seems fair.
The TNA buy was at $69.05, and TNA closed at $70.82, up 2.5%.
Volume for TNA today was about normal for the past month.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 1.8% with TNA up 2.5%. No divergence. Good for TNA.
TNA was up for 5 days, down for 2 days, and up 4 days. Good for TNA.
The high for TNA had been from yesterday at $69.00. Today’s high was $70.98, 2.8% higher. Good for TNA.
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA rose for 9 days to 74.8, then fell for 2 days to 68, then rose 3 days to 75.7. Today, which TNA rose 3.1%, Ultimate Oscillator fell from 75.7 to 74.8, a divergence. Bad for TNA at some point, as a value near 80 is generally considered a high point, and this divergence may be warning of TNA falling soon. For the time being, Good for TNA.
MACD on the monthly chart has been rising for 8 days, and the rise is steeper today. Good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today’s small black candle closed below yesterday’s close, a bit below the Bollinger mid line. MACD seems to be rising. $RVX just seems to be meandering pointlessly. Neutral for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today’s white candle for $RUT is a new high, headed towards the rising upper Bollinger Band. MACD is rising. Good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s white candle rose closer to the upper Bollinger band, which was rising today. Good for TNA.
TNA had a higher high, higher low and higher close – Good for TNA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$ 364 million flowing into the market 2 days ago.
$1,393 million flowing out of the market yesterday.
$2,305 million flowing into the market today.
Bullish – Good for TNA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, it looks good (up and to the right) for TNA.
have a look at the vix and spx charts for today… last 60 minutes or so
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA had a Hold signal today, and was up today, remaining a Hold for tomorrow. The TNA buy was at $56.50. TNA closed at $70.78, up 25.2% since the buy. The candlestick today was a White Candlestick (normal buying pressure).
TZA had a Wait (for a signal) today, and was down today, remaining a Wait for tomorrow. The TZA sell price was $6.51. TZA closed today at $5.41, down 16.9% since the sell. The candlestick for today was a Black Candlestick (normal selling pressure).
Three recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
Buy at $7.04, sell at $6.51
For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals (until this last one) have also been uninspiring:
Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
Buy at $56.50, up 25.2%
Summary of Positive $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs & stocks (Market positive):  +9
Hold: IWM(1x, up 8.3%), UWM(2x, up 17.5%), TNA(3x, up 25.2%), QQQQ(up 4.7%), DIA(up 2.7%), SPY(up 2.3%), UCO (2x oil, up 0.6%), ERX(3x energy, up 17.2%), AAPL(up 4.4%), EWU(England, down 1.4%)
New Confirmed BUY: EWG(Germany)
Transition to Market Positive:  -1
Not Very Highly Reliable BUY-IF: GS
Transition to Market Negative:  +2
Not Very Highly Reliable (Bearish Deliberation Pattern) SELL-IF: IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE)
Highly Reliable (Bearish Kicking Pattern) SELL-IF: AMZN
Market Negative:  -2
Wait: USO(oil), GOOG
Comment: Somewhat Bullish overall, Neutral Oil, Bullish $RUT, Bullish Real Estate
Action for TNA or TZA for Monday: none
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1d&s=^VXN&l=on&…
Thanks TOMTOM
I closed my short of DTO (I was long oil) today. I can see the markets going either way next week and feel safer in cash.
Oil's move over the last 2 days of trading has been fierce. USO went from 39.30 (low Weds) to 40.95 (close Friday). A 4% move in 2 days? While the dollar is going up? Really? Oil is one more volcanic eruption away from taking a serious beating.
Thanks everyone for your kind wishes. If anyone could answer the following for me, I would greatly appreciate it and please excuse my ignorance. Sundancer mentioned that there was a gap left back on the day of the Lehman crash on Sept 15 2008 at 121.63 on the SPY (that's basically where we closed this past Friday). But from what I can tell (please check to make sure I am right), that 121.63 number is the bottom of the gap and the top of the gap is around 124.20 (left on the previous trading day – 9/12/08). Do large gaps like that tend to get filled or do they tend to provide resistance? If they get filled, then I could see a huge move up on Monday to that 124.20 level (which I think corresponds with the Fib level everyone is talking about) or alternatively a huge move down if the 121.63 were to provide resistance. As Sundancer mentioned, I would think that the GS downward pressure, coupled with the VIX call buying at the close and the fact that we will be on calendar day 80 on Monday since the last move down would be good signs for the bears? But maybe GS is letting their stock get hit so they can buy it back?
moni…
I'm not a spy kind of guy, more so SPX,COMPQ… but check out the video below, looks bearish to me, …I'm a member at this site below btw…
energy sector was strong fri, “they” may run it up more..
also notice that compq has only been above 2500 for 7 months in the last 10 years…excluding 99,00 since it was crazy times, oh but wait, we are in crazy time…ha
http://www.freetradingvideos.com/vlog/default.a…
Thank you very much TomTom.
here's another recap from Brian Shannon ,totally different, no mention of “extended” overbought…
http://www.alphatrends.net/
Thank you very much TomTom.