Sunday, May 26, 2024

Black Monday Delayed…

It seems that the only Black Monday to happen was for the Bears... for they just got ran up a tree today fast!

This huge move up, is actually great news for the bears, as it means that there is a higher chance of another sell off coming within the next few days.  So, I was wrong on today being Black Monday, but I still see more selling coming.  Possibly another up day tomorrow, but I don't see very much of a move up possible.  It could just be a flat or pause day?

Looking at the past occurrences of large sell offs, and then a big rebound, in almost every case there was another leg down, putting in a lower low.  Cobra did an excellent weekend update, with a lot of charts that shows all the previous sell offs... which had another leg down almost every time.

I don't think this time will be different.  The next couple of days could be held up, but I really doubt that it will last too long.  We had 4 more fake prints at 111.30 spy, in the afterhours session.  Those could be late fills from yesterday's close of 111.47, or they could be fake prints?  It's hard too tell at this point.

There was also a fake print of 113.42 at about 12:10 pm (est), which was printed again in the afterhours session.  I think that if we open flat, and go down to 113.42, and then bounce back up and go higher... then the final high is already in from April (maybe?).

I say that because I don't think the bulls will have enough power too rally up to a new high, without first making a lower low first.  The bears are looking for a short entry, as many missed the first leg down.  With the bears overhead lurking, there should be too much resistance for the bulls to fight through, if they try to rally higher from the 113.42 level.

If the market goes down and retests the low of 105.00, and makes a lower low, then the bulls will have enough shorts in the market to squeeze them up and put in a new high in late June as I explained in the video I did.  The bulls need to get more fuel to rally up to new highs in this market, and they can't do that without more bears in short positions.  Most bears missed that big move down on Thursday.

That's why there is almost always 2 moves down.  The first one the bears miss out on, and get short too late.  That would be your wave one down in Elliottwave terms.  Then they get squeezed out like today, in wave 2 up.  But, there isn't enough of them short to squeeze them higher, and put in a new high.

You need to bait them again.  So, you have too have another leg down, taking out the current low.  Every bear will go short and continue shorting on every move higher.  They will be the fuel needed to make a new high in the market.  Remember, everyone will see the massive Head and Shoulders, so the bears will continue to go short at every level higher that the market makes.

Eventually, there won't be an more bears to squeeze, and the market will run out of fuel to go higher.  I still believe that will happen in late June or early July.  Whether or not it happens exactly on June 25th, is anyone's guess?  I thought would we sell off hard today, and then start the rally back tomorrow.

But, I was wrong, and the market decided to rally hard today... leaving me to guess at the rest of the week, as to which day the "Big Sell Off" will happen on.  Could it be Black Tuesday, or Black Wednesday?  I don't know yet, but I'm still very confident that another leg down is going to occur... and I expect it too happen this week.

Next week should start the huge rally up, and squeeze all the shorts in the May OPX.  Then, as I said in the video, a possible couple of days of selling... to work off the over bought conditions that will occur.  Then, instead of a continued fall from the huge right shoulder that will have been made, a rally up too the DIA 118.16 mark should occur.

You should all know by now that everything can change, and these are just forecasts that I'm making, by trying to put the pieces together, to give you a clearer picture of the possible future.  The game can change at any time.  But, if the past history shows any indication of the future... then this is the most likely outcome.

One more thing, as you may already know, I didn't go short into the weekend.  I stayed in cash, because I was unsure of what the weekend could bring.  I did go short today, and will stay short unless the market doesn't make the next leg down this week.  That means that the past history isn't valid this time.  But, next week will still most likely be a huge week up.  We all know that opx is usually a bullish week.

This time around shouldn't be any different, and in fact, it should have higher odds of being bullish, as there is now a huge amount of open interest put contracts for May.  They do not want to pay out on all those contracts.  That's why I think we will rally into opx.

The question still remains... is whether we have another leg down first, or this is it?

Red

P.S.  After I wrote this post, Alphahorn posted another chart that has me concerned.  In it, he has a screen shot of the spx on the 1 minute chart, showing a low of 1056 in the pre-market session before Thursday May the 5th.  I'm a little concerned as to whether or not that qualifies as a double bottom... meaning that we might only go down to 113.52 spy tomorrow, and then rally on up from there on out.

Or, was this a fake print telling everyone that the market was going down to 1056 soon (actual low was 1065 on Thursday)?  I'm going to be very cautious here, because that could mean the bottom is in for now?  I don't think it is, but I have too be open to the possibility that the current sell off is over for now.

That doesn't mean I don't expect the fake print of 113.52 spy to be hit, as I still see that happening.  But, I want everyone to be aware of it (thanks for sharing it Alphahorn).  And you might want to lighten up on your shorts at that level... unless you see the market just blow pasted it like it wasn't there of course.

Close up of the print above.  Notice the StochasticFull at the bottom of the chart says 66.6667... tell me these guys don't like their rituals.  LOL

Edit.......

Actually gang, credit for the wonderful catch of the fake print, goes to  http://disqus.com/grednfer   Many thanks from myself and others who find benefit from it... go you Grednfer.  Alphahorn did mention it in his post, but I overlooked it.

Red
Author: Red

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Keirsten
Keirsten
14 years ago

Red.. nice post, buddy! BTW.. that chart is Grednfer's if you'd like to let him know you appreciate his work. 😉

http://disqus.com/grednfer/

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Keirsten

Yeah… definitely. We all need to help each other out and share charts. Alphahorn posted, and did mention grednfer. I'll edit the post, to give proper credit.

Keirsten
Keirsten
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Gred's a great guy- good trader and chartist for sure. I'm sure he'll be honored. Good work over here today- I was able to pop in a read quite a bit, and learning a lot from y'all.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Keirsten

Thanks girl…

We have a good group here. Join in anytime. I edited the post and include credit to Gred. I overlook the part where Alpha said he copied the chart from Gred… DUH

isaiah64v4
isaiah64v4
14 years ago

Leo something for you it's off topic but I though you may be interested.
http://tinyurl.com/27yhfx6

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  isaiah64v4

LOL… nothing surprises me anymore. You did know that President Jimmy Carter claimed publicly that he seen a UFO…

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

I'm about 85% positive that there will be a second, lower bottom. Cobra had a lot of material on his site yesterday that supported a second bottom, and also pointed out that the duration of this valley could go on another nine days. So, this thing could have a lot of twists and turns. Or not. One possibility is that we could have a very rapid bullet down and immediately go into a rally, a strong possibility because of market breadth that is almost scary.

Or, we could meander around testing containment points before going to a second bottom, or even have two more steps, which would surprise everybody.

Sundancer posted a chart this morning that shows the containment areas, very interesting:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45955

We are on our fourth attempt at the green line, and I do not believe that the market has enough oomph to do it, having come so far in three days if you include Thursday's rebound. I'm not a wave theory guy, but do see rallies as usually consisting of three steps, and we are on step three now, according to my reckoning.

All day long, it looked to me like the bigger trades were downticks, even if the money flow was positive. Got to watch it, though, because I've seen some of my buys come in as downticks. Some bears ran a little at the end of the day, but hardly panic covering, I thought. I was mostly watching SDS and AAPL.

Sold my AAPL calls too soon. 🙁 More than doubled my money, though. 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Yeah, I agree with you. I posted a link in the post above to Cobra's weekend update. It shows lots of evidence of another leg down. Tomorrow could still go up to that 116.80 spy level in the morning, and then stale out, and either sell off or trade sideways?

Either way, I went short around 116.00 area, and I'll wait it out for a few days if necessary? I really believe another sell off is coming asap.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I went short about the same level, about an hour in, because the rally looked like it was petering out. So we're sharing the boat.

One scenario that I'm entertaining is that the market could drift up slowly the next three day, just a few Dow points per day, and turn around on Friday (new moon). That would be maddening.

If we dip tomorrow morning, I may pick up some June calls as a hedge. If I blow the direction, at least I will have some insurance and, if I don't, they should be good into the next rally even if they get pasted in the meantime. I will avoid AAPL because it's been getting too much play. Maybe F? This market will probably scare the UAW into settling up on their warrants.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

We certainly could just drift up or slightly sideways for a few days, but that would be too easy I believe. Looking at any chart, and everyone is waiting for a backtest of the broken support line at 1180 spx.

If you were a market maker, would you let the bears get on board short from that level, or stay just shy of it, and tank it without letting them on get short? They would chase the tape down, just like they want them too do.

AS2009
AS2009
14 years ago

Great post Red …. loved your weekend post too ….

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  AS2009

Thanks…

I was off on Black Monday, but who knows… maybe Black Tuesday or Wednesday? Being only a day or two off isn't too bad. LOL

steveo77
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I have been posting the DWC/DIA ratio chart for quite some time, however, I never plotted it against the SPX.

Seriously, take a look at this. And the PRS 133 on the ES and the EUR/USD, and the Fear Factor, and Chart of Charts, all say the same thing….

Don't be deceived, it's easy to be a bull and predict up, but this puppy is going down and pretty darn soon!

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

FTSE is down sharply this morning, which gave me an idea how a fake bottom and rally might play out:

They are at about a 1/3 correction on their rally, so we open down (about 1120) and rally with them, taking us to 1186 after their market closes, or maybe tomorrow.

After that, the pipe continues.

I'm planning on buying some calls at the fake bottom if it happens.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

Red, your going to get whipsawed out of your positions listening to 10,000 different people

What is important is understanding the dance of the market.
I posted this chart back on 4.11.2010 showing you the daily containment pt. that was going to get backtested
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45102
Then look where the precise bottom was last Thursday, that pesky light blue containment
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45850

Downward pressure will be on the market until gold weekly containment is hit, no new highs are coming until weekly containment is hit.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45890

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Thank you for the update.

I plan on staying in my position now. I do strongly believe we will hit that gold containment line around 1050, and I agree with you that I need to stay focused.

I'll probably have to set some trade triggers for tomorrow, as I have an appointment in the morning to do, and won't be able to get to a computer. The last time that I was gone, the market tanked (Monica is rough on them Bulls… LOL). I'll be here today of course.

Anyway, thanks for the reassurance, I'm sticky with it, and will stay short until the gold containment point is hit.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Hi Sundancer, it is hard to stick with a position when I am not the one coming up with the analysis but you have been nothing but right and I appreciate the reminder. I am still short. Both you and the some of the economists that Red posted quotes suggesting that leveraged instruments were dangerous – one of the economists suggested that they would become worthless. I think I will stay in puts until the move down to 105. For the next round down, I will just short the SPY outright even though it won't be nearly as lucrative.

Gere64
Gere64
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Hi Mon,

If options were to become worthless you might as well give up the ghost. The Commercials actually use leverage in a native sense.

Plot your own containment lines. Google “George Renya The Midas Touch”

These will be close enough to do your own analysis. I believe in teaching the folks to fish.

There is very little that is new under the sun. The most successful investors have mastered position size which is the toughest act of them all.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Gere64

Hey there. Sundancer is trying to teach us how to fish. I'm just not that great and hooking the bait, nor do I have the time with two little ones but I will get there. I believe something new us under the sun and that is sundancer! If technical analysis really worked (and I do believe it does to some extent) then many people would have mastered it and would be rich. Instead, most of us are spinning our wheels. Dread is probably the best technical analyst I have seen. Options may become worthless (if no one is there to pay them out) but by that point money probably won't be worth much anyway 🙁 Not sure what the answer is unfortunately.

Gere64
Gere64
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

If by really works you mean its the Holy Grail, you are correct.

It is an art, not a science.

ashsail10
ashsail10
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Thanks Sun for your posts. Are you talking about gold to reach down to 1050 or going to touch higher contain point?

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  ashsail10

down to 1050

Gere64
Gere64
14 years ago

Friday, September 19, 2008. This was the night of TARP.

September 19, 2008’s gains lasted all but one session with the entire gain evaporating the next trading day. The S&P 500 had an historical opening that day, closed at 1255.08 on 2008-09-19 up 48.57 points for a gain of 4.03% (a Friday). The S&P 500 closed at 1207.09 on September 22, 2009 down 47.99 points for a loss of 3.82% the subsequent Monday.

We all know what happened next between September 19, 2008 and March of 2009 as the market started it’s decline to what we now refer to as the March 2009 lows.

There is another interesting comparison drawn to the September 19, 2008 record breaker. The advance decline ratio closed at 18:1, meaning for every stock that was down, 18 were up for the day. Today’s advance/decline ratio also ended at 18:1.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Gere64

Very interesting – thank you. I think I mentioned that Art Cashin yesterday said in his entire career he had never seen advancers outpace decliners by such an extent.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Remember Art Cashin's hat Monica?

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2009

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Never seen this! Is it from the crash last year?!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

LOL… no, it said Dow 10,000 on it. I Photoshop'd it. He He He (I'm a little bit evil sometimes).

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

As long as you don't photoshop fake prints!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

LOL Monica…

You know me better then that. I really do care about everyone on the site, and want them all to make money. I would never give out fake information.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

yes, i do know you well enough to know you have our best interests in mind.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Gere64

Thanks Gere…

Very interesting. Makes me glad too be short right now.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  Gere64
Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

LOL Ban short selling and the market tanks. I guess the big boys were already short, and they didn't want anyone else on the roller-coaster ride down.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

ha ha! Truly amazing.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

And I thought you didn't follow the N.E.W.S 🙂

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

I just follow Rituals,

Notice the date the Short Sale Restriction Ended, Oct. 2. 2008

Now go look what Started on Oct. 2.2008

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

oh lord – 200 point down move!

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Dow should have opened 200 points down based on the FTSE.

Let's see what happens

Gere64
Gere64
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Bush addressed the nation on the 24 but it was the 19th.

Regardless, point still holds.

Will Google later.

Thanks!!

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

very strange that gold is trading higher this morning. Guess that just means more downside in equities.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

Carl’s morning call:

June S&P E-mini Futures: I think that last week's low at 1056 ended the correction from 1216. Today's range estimate is 1135-60.

1140.50-1158.25 range last night (17.75 points)
1135-1160 estimate for today (25 points – ~1.5 times the usual range)

1142 currently, so estimate is -7 to +18 from here (bullish)

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Earl of

I'll be interested in knowing how well Carl trades when this P2 up finally ends, and P3 starts. Should be interesting.

Keirsten
Keirsten
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Did you catch Robin's blip on HPH yesterday? I'm liking it a lot. 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Keirsten

No…

Got a link?

Keirsten
Keirsten
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I'll shoot you the excerpt in email, and then you can use it to post later or whatever. Best to you to all over here today!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

LOL Ban short selling and the market tanks. I guess the big boys were already short, and they didn't want anyone else on the roller-coaster ride down.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

LOL Ban short selling and the market tanks. I guess the big boys were already short, and they didn't want anyone else on the roller-coaster ride down.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

LOL Ban short selling and the market tanks. I guess the big boys were already short, and they didn't want anyone else on the roller-coaster ride down.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

looks like we are backtesting again.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Probably going to close the gap, and end up being a flat to slightly down day. Looks boring too me already. It should crash tomorrow, as I have to work again.

So you're in charge, try not to kill all the bulls this time Monica. Remember, we do want some left alive to rally back to the DIA 118.16 print by mid-summer. Be easy on them. LOL

newbear
newbear
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Hi Red, did you see the bunch of false prints Anna got this morning to the downside?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Seen them last night. I posted that in my post above. I caught 4 of them at 111.30 spy.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

gold strong – i guess that's about to change!

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

isn't that a huge gap at 41 on the VIX that will need filling?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

The VIX seems pretty oversold, and looks like it wants to go back up soon. Just a few chop days, and then a move should happen. I suspect by Friday, as I know I wouldn't risk being long over the weekend. But then again, I'm a bear… LOL

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

did we close the spx gap?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Gap looks closed too me now. Anna said she seen a fake print of 116.28 yesterday, and we also have the 116.80 print too. So, that should be the target for today.

Just follow the fake prints… Up to 116.28 or 116.80, then down to 113.52 or 111.30… seems pretty simple now.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

it always seems simple until you get there!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

LOL… how true, how true!

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

ok red – we are almost at 116.80 – let's see if she holds!

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

if it is going to happen, it should not take that long.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Well, I thought I give myself a little more time, just in case I'm wrong again. I should have said “Black May”, as that would have be correct. LOL.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

🙂

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

isn't that a huge gap at 41 on the VIX that will need filling?

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

isn't that a huge gap at 41 on the VIX that will need filling?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

The VIX seems pretty oversold, and looks like it wants to go back up soon. Just a few chop days, and then a move should happen. I suspect by Friday, as I know I wouldn't risk being long over the weekend. But then again, I'm a bear… LOL

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

The VIX seems pretty oversold, and looks like it wants to go back up soon. Just a few chop days, and then a move should happen. I suspect by Friday, as I know I wouldn't risk being long over the weekend. But then again, I'm a bear… LOL

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

weird spike in the vix. can you see buyers?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

No, I can't see buyers… maybe others can?

SC
SC
14 years ago

The instantaneous recovery on Thur and the spike up on Monday reinforced one mindset : BUY THE F@*&^% DIP.

The PPT pulled a marvellous job on Thur. Who do you think were scooping up the futures when the bottom fell off and all the retails were shut out?

So, now, every pro in every equity shop is banging his/her head on the $2000 desk. BUY BUY BUY. Stupid! When there is a crash, BUY, stupid!

That is the prevailing psychology in the pro investment community now.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

While the market continues to climb, a perfect end to this rally is to put in an intraday high of 116.66 spy… which by the way, we are almost there now.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Pretty half-assed rally so far: low volume, mediocre money flow, fourth trip to the containment bar.

Got my fingers crossed,

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Yeah, I suspect the day will be flat to slightly down. I just seen a fake print to 115.50 on the 10 minute chart, so maybe that's where we close the day at?

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

you notice how a watched pot never boils? Maybe we should all go for a walk!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Well, I'm working tomorrow, so I won't be watching… lets' hope it boils then.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Just made it through 116.66 – next stop 116.80.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Yes in deed… we made new high. This is the ritual turn date that Sundancer mentioned. So we should expect this date to be the high. It's just a bear shake out Monica. I'm staying short.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

me too but throwing up in my mouth!

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

116.80 hit. Let's see what happens now.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

I think we're close. SDS augured in like a panic sell, 600m shares.

I'm out $0.45. 🙂 We'll see if I'm smiling later.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

You mean close to a top in the market, right?

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

crap – GO DOWN ALREADY!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Picking the exact top is almost impossible it seems. If we wouldn't have went short yesterday, then today would have fell without us. That's just life it seems.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I don't care about getting the absolute top as long as I make money and survive!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Me too Monica…

Have faith. Look at this chart from Cobra. Every time there was a second leg down. Odds favor another sell off.

http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/S-ZSSVMsIlI/A

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

so far so good.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I'm psychologically ready to go another 400 on the Dow.

This first push is out of gas. I'm most concerned about the 3pm crowd.

What a day.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Sells are going to coming, and most likely before Friday. Maybe tomorrow? But I do believe we are going to have another leg down… well before OPX.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

12:30pm – Here come da sellahz

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

1:15pm – I guess they stopped for lunch. Still happy to see them, though.

TL down for the first time all day.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

VIX dropping.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Notice how they are holding the tape around 116.66? What are they saying?

It's sign of what's too come…

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Or maybe there are just equal buyers and sellers there!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Yeah… it's the line in the sand between God and the Devil.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

And you know what side we are on!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

LOL… of course, we are on God's side (aka “The Bears”)

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Maybe we need to get to 1166.66 on the SPX!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Maybe?

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

But I was kinda noticing that myself!

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

I was thinking 666 = pi * boiling point of water
also equal to the numbers from 1 to 36 all added together.
6's and 9's are interchangable — just doesn't matter which you have

If I learned nothing else here, I learned this.

Still trying to use it to predict the market.
Ain't got that part working yet.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Earl of

Welcome to the club…

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Earl of

ha ha!

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

sigh…. what they are really saying is, lunch break for the Chicago crew and peperoni salami pizza is on the menu!

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

bunch of sellers at that 116.80 level.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Red, you see all those sellers on the offer?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

No, I can't see the sellers on the platform I'm using. Is there a lot?

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I dunno. Just keep seeing large offer size reappearing around the 116.85 level on the SPY.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

But doesn't seem to be able to keep it down.

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Intraday, Russell futures has been in the mega bullish-no sell zone since 11:45 EST. Note: This is intra day only.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

not looking good red.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

No it's not Monica. I'll give it some more time though. At least until tomorrow.

Stock_tech
Stock_tech
14 years ago

Yahoo front page is messed up again? Its showing 4% up

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Stock_tech

No I realized that it is just delayed. That is yesterday's close.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Stock_tech

I figured that one out now… it's yesterday's quote.

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  Stock_tech

May be you guys are looking for divine inspiration in editorial typo? wtf

Modern day voodoo.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  SC

Any divine intervention we can get is fine with me!

SC
SC
14 years ago

The Commission has decreed. No more meltdown. There shall be no repeat of May 6.

http://www.moneynews.com/Headline/Exchanges-Hal

It is written. It shall be done.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  SC

Interesting – sounds like the same thing is banning short sales and we all know how that played out!

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Blasphemy!

I for one, am happy that my government knows what is best for me!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Well gang,

We knew from last Thursday, that there were multiple fake prints at 116.80, which have now been filled. From yesterday, we had 4 fake prints at 111.30, which leads me to believe they should also be filled… probably within the same time frame, about 2-3 days.

That means by Thursday or Friday, it should drop to 111.30 area and fill those prints too. Since we didn't hit the 116.80 target yesterday, I should have waited until today, but I'm still learning this ritual game they play, so mistakes are going to be made.

newbear
newbear
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Let's hope it plays out that way, it seems now that this is the way they are screwing the bears again. I'm still short minus apple and have my spy calls as hedge.

Good Luck to All.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  newbear

That's what they want us to think.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red – doesn't count if we go past it! Because either market direction you go, you can say the fake prints have been hit! Still I think we go down.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

I don't think “past it” by only a few cents counts. But yes, if we go above too far above 117.00 tomorrow, then the prints probably won't work this time. I'm staying short for now, as this really hasn't changed anything from what I can see.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I am too and we will have to live off the land together if this doesn't work out!

newbear
newbear
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

damn this thing is breaking out.

AS2009
AS2009
14 years ago

Hey – where is sundancer today ?

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  AS2009

he's letting us fend for ourselves! Probably tired of our panicking 🙂

AS2009
AS2009
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Yeah – I miss him though 🙂

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  AS2009

maybe he has a real job!

Stock_tech
Stock_tech
14 years ago

Red can you confirm alphahorn print on 1056 tic before the big plunge? It looks like it was ameritrade trading platform. Can you check to see if it was on yours as well? Thanks

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Stock_tech

I didn't see it on mine, but I use the 10 minute chart. It only appeared on the 1 minute chart. And, it came a 11:45 pm (almost midnight). My system only shows afterhours until about 6:30 pm or so.

So, I can't confirm it. But, I see no reason for him to make it up. I know all the other fake prints came true… why should that one have been different? They seem to warn everyone of the major moves, before they happen.

I'm sure it's real, and we just didn't catch it…

Stock_tech
Stock_tech
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

No I belive it did happen. I just want to know if would show up on other platforms. or was it only on ameritrade

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Stock_tech

That I don't know? Sometimes it does, and sometimes it doesn't?

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

if this is anything like jan 19th, we had approx a 2 point gain on the spy that day and then closed at the high.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

This is clearly a wave 2 back up… (and I don't know anything about EW), but this should be the last day of it. Maybe a doji tomorrow, and then the sell off we are waiting for. (aka Wave 3)

newbear
newbear
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

that would ball in line with sell of Thursdays which have been more frequent.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Hmmm? Maybe the reason my Black Monday's have failed, is that I have them on the wrong day? Black Thursday anyone?

newbear
newbear
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thursdays have been consistent with drops lately 🙂

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Look at the 6 month SPY chart with the 10/50 day MA. Looks like an amazing short entry.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

You got a link?

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago

Well my plans sure seem to be going to hell. got stopped out of most short positions.

Picked up a little tna for a quicky.

I believing the market is going to try the old grind up on low volume like before last week

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

I doubt Jim…

When was the last time you see that the market didn't have a second leg down?

http://lh4.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/S-ZSSVMsIlI/A

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I agree with you but i think that second leg down appears to want to come from an s&P level at or around 1250.

I thought the Monday rise was an anomaly to be followed by a stronger down today but iam obviously wrong.

What is the choice. adding shorts now seems riskier especially if we close above yesterdays high which is looking probable.

i know you are not in ultras. What are you playing presently?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

I have some SPY 112 and 110 puts.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

i just realized we are hitting resistance here at the 10/50 MA.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

my guess is that we close at 1166.66

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Notice also that oil has turned over

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

Looks like things are breaking down at 1170, thank goodness. Once the selling starts, I think it will go fast.

What kind of nut buys into a thousand point rally without a correction anyway?

I went short at 116, but it's amazing how decimated my account is already.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

mine too. Red, I don't know how to provide a link to the SPY at my Ameritrade account but just look at the 6 month chart of SPY on Ameritrade and put in the 10 and 50 day moving average. If this is the ritual day (like Jan 19th), then we have to go down hard tomorrow.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Join the crowd. Options are high risks. I can be down 50% one down (like today) and up 100% the next day. Wild swings, and wild profits… and losses.

The charts still tell me we are heading back down. The dollar hasn't moved hardly any from yesterday's closing price. Oil has been falling since it put in it's high around 11 am.

This rally won't last. All the signs show it falling back down within a few days. I'm staying short.

newbear
newbear
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

also gold is gaining

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  newbear

And oil is really tanking now… plus the market. I knew it wouldn't last.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

We have to make it past the 3pm crowd, but they are generally adults.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

The serious money is in SDS, which held up very well, and I have a bunch of puts. They were pretty cheap, hard to resist. I got some at 1170.

The market is a fickle mistress. I'll be glad when it really breaks down and I only have to decide on my cover point.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

I think I will be looking at the 111.30 fake print first, and might take some profits, then let the rest ride the wave down to 105.00 or so. We'll see? It might fall too fast, and blow right through 111.30?

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I think 105 is in the bag. Might have to wait a week for it, though. Selling the puts around 111.3 is a good idea. Try to hit the panic premium.

newbear
newbear
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

that would be nice

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

1159, our chance to cover and call the whole thing off, lol.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

Just remembered, AM crowd were sellers, so PM crowd are likely to sell.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

You mean AM crowd were buyers, and PM crowd are sellers… I knew what you meant.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

No, the open was at Dow 10,780 and sold down.

The whole day's rally is gone. That's gotta hurt.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Oops, I may have spoken too soon. The bulls are back, and they brought some money.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

This ain't looking good for the Bulls now. They lost all of the move up today, and are just even with yesterdays' close. Plus, Oil is still going down, Gold is rallying, and the dollar is holding pointing up.

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I was able to get back in some of my stopped out positions as the market started turning down but this sis just unbelievable. I guess i am wrong again.

S&P seems to want to drop below 50 to close

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

I can't believe how it's playing out.

Now if we can get past this blue chip rally, we're home free.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Yes – options scary. I'm still down but not by much.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Yes, the vix hasn't popped back higher yet… to the point you and I went short. It will though… This is really ugly for the bulls.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

so long, farewell, auf wiedersehen, good night!

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

all i know is GS and Oil are getting hit.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

We may close higher but tomorrow should be a thing of beauty me thinks.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

During ritual days there isn't anything to do or see, so I've been out enjoying the Sun.

We're going to back test max contain (teal line) on the 60 in the not too distant future
We can either go sideways for another day & test it or dump 30 pts. & back test it in the 1150 area.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45995

AS2009
AS2009
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Sun – the teal line around 117.75 – 118 ?

Which MA is that one ?

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  AS2009

Yeah the operators could have done it today @ 117.80 & they didn't which tells me it will get backtested in the 1145-1150 area

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

That lines up perfect with a move down to the fake print of 111.30 spy, and then back up to 1145-1150 spx to shake out the bears, and then a plunge to 105.00 spy area.

That's what I'd do if I controlled the market…

newbear
newbear
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Did you see Mole's post, he got a VIX buy signal.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  newbear

No, but it seems a little behind in calling buy signal. (Kidding here)

I think we all knew the time to buy the vix was last week when Sundancer got a email from a friend telling him of a very large vix buyer that showed up, and made a large purchase.

newbear
newbear
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

well, you know Mole has some good calls and bad like the rest of us

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  newbear

I was just playing… you know that. I like Mole, and yes we have all made good and bad calls. I'm first to admit that… LOL

newbear
newbear
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Oh wait, I think what Mole meant was VIX buy signal on equities.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Now you're kidding… Ha Ha

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