Indecision?

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that's what we got today...

As for tomorrow, I don't know where we are going?  That's why they call that the "indecision candle", or doji.  It looks very bearish how it went up to the 1040 level that I expect on Friday (a day early I was), but we should rally at some point soon.

We are very oversold now, and appear to be basing, or consolidating in this lower range.  That could be viewed as bullish, or it could be viewed as a bear flag forming... which is bearish.

The 15 minute chart look ready to rally up tomorrow, and the MACD's are recycling back up from oversold, and the histogram bars look ready to cross the zero line as well.  We are also forming a support trendline from the 1010 low, and the higher low at 1015, and now 1018 today.

The 60 minute chart looks ready to go back up and make a second histogram tower above the zero line.  If it's a lower tower, then it would be putting in a negative divergence.  The bulls need it to be a higher tower then the top of today's tower when the market hit 1040.

The daily chart put in a higher low on the histogram bar today.  That shows that an uptrend is about to start soon.  The only bad thing about that, is that the MACD's aren't rolling back up yet.  And, ADX line is still rising.  The negative DI line did roll over today, and is now pointing down, and the positive DI line curled up today, so that's bullish.

The RSI turned back up too, and didn't penetrate the 30 level (if it did, that's really bearish).  But, the charts seem mixed overall.  I can see bullish points of view and bearish, so I just don't know what to think about tomorrow?

The weekly chart is still very bearish, and isn't showing any signs of going up yet.  That means we should expect another down week, although that just doesn't seem likely too me.  Just because I see how oversold it is, and should rally.  I'm still expecting a move to 1070 soon... but when does it start?

The news out this week isn't really much of anything important, so with this light volume, you would think that we are going to start a rally this week.  That's why I don't think this week will be down, even though the charts tell me it will.  I'm obviously just going on my gut feeling that we are going to start that rally tomorrow, and not continue to sell off.

So, I wait for the rally, like all the other bears do.  The bulls are long, and the bears are waiting to get short at a higher level.  Will it happen?  Who knows?  Not me, that's for sure.

Good luck to everyone...

Red

Update:  In the afterhours session, I just caught this print of 106.20 spy.  It's likely to be our high tomorrow, should we rally.

185 COMMENTS

    • Looks like every time it fell into that circle you posted… it rallied. That means we should be rallying soon, which everyone is expecting to happen. The question is… when?

      So far, it looks like the 1010 bottom is going to hold for the short term, allowing a rally up to 1070 or so. It just isn't acting very bullish… selling off into the close like it did today.

      Where is the 300 point up day? I keep looking for it, but so far… nothing? Maybe tomorrow we start the rally everyone is looking for. We are certainly oversold and due one, that's for sure.

      • Maybe the trick they are pulling is making it look weak then gapping it up like the they did this morning.

        • I'm expecting a big rally to start, as I have a fake print of 1070.50 spx… which will be hit. But when? Plus that afterhours print above of 106.20 spy, which tells me we are going to rally soon.

          The charts are both bullish and bearish, but turning more bullish everyday. I think most people are turning bullish now, and I don't think there are too many bears left short. Most are in cash, expecting a rally.

          Atilla is all bullish now, but his time frame is much longer then mine, so I can't use anything he states in my trading. Anna seems mostly bullish too, but her time frame is shorter then mine.

          So, I'm expecting a rally, but really I'm just guessing as the charts are still mixed.

          • Atilla is long the market right now, at least that what I gather from his recent posts. Plus, he went long realestate today, after seeing the news that foreclosures are up?

            He has a different time frame then I do, and can't wait out any wild swings I believe. Since I play options, I can't use any information he shares to help aid in my decisions to go long or short.

            Right now I'm short, but I'm expecting a rally to come soon… even though the charts are still mixed. However, that's just my gut talking, and it's usually wrong. LOL.

          • I think that real estate thing may have been a “fake post”. I saw that too. Deception is the mark of the Hun, but insanity is not.

    • No one seems to know the answers Newbear. I sure would like to have a close friend that works for Goldman to give me updates. Maybe I should join eHarmony and state in my profile that she must work for Goldman Sachs… LOL

  1. I'm expecting a rally like the week of May 24. The 15min and the daily stoch. are pointing up, but the weekly is pointing down. A weak rally.

    If the weekly and the daily and the 15min were all pointing up, I'd say a rally like the week of June 7.

  2. Looks like the 2nd attempt to break the 1040 area is underway this morning. Will it break out today… who knows? That afterhours print above (of 106.20 spy) could mean nothing, as it could have just been a late fill?

  3. Also, on the 60 minute chart, you can see a head and shoulders pattern forming, with the 1042 level as the head and the 1032 area as the left shoulder. We could be forming the right shoulder, should it not be able to break out of the falling channel?

  4. Looks like some euphoria setting in on two green days in a row. I am contemplating getting out of TNA and SSO if we hit 1039. Will not add to shorts unless we get past 1040.

    • At this point, I think we will get past 1042 and hit the 50ema at 1044.32 (on the 60 minute chart).

      Look back at the low on February 5th (1044.50 spx), and notice that on February the 1st and 2nd the market ran up similar to right now… then fell in one last leg down.

      While I feel like we are going to 1070 first, before falling back down, it could end today? We could sell off in that finally leg down tomorrow? I doubt it, as I'm never that lucky… but it's possible.

  5. I'm not sure if the days matter Monica? I know they could have fixed it within a couple of days… if they wanted too. But why do that, when they staged the whole event in the first place. They will drag it out for as long as they can. They want this to be a disaster, as they are evil corrupt bastards, and should be publicly hung.

  6. I suspect that we will push higher into the close today, as by then, the 15 minute chart will have reset the overbought conditions and will go back up again (on the histogram bars).

  7. Weiss just sent me an alert to enter spy positions. they are seeing 1070 fot this bounce for whatever its worth.

    Holding tNA and SSO because of it and will wait a bit longer on short adds.

    • I see 1070 too Jim, as I still have that 1070.50 print from last week. So, I do believe it will be hit. Of course the “when” part is still unknown?

      Those guys at BAM has been wrong on the turn dates, but again… who is always right? No one. They did say the word “if” the market is going to follow the 1987 model.

      So if it doesn't follow it, then we should rally to 1070 area first. The only problem I have with that, is that everyone is expecting it. Plus, the mass media is now saying that “the bottom is in”… and you know they are always wrong.

      I certainly could see a rally into the close today, if they want to squeeze out the last short, and get everyone bullish again… which of course they do.

      You remember when everyone was calling for a right shoulder of 1150, and we only got 1131… that means we shouldn't get 1070 either, as it would fool a lot of people if we started back down from here.

      • Especially chart trader. he kept calling for the 1070 on right shoulder and finally admitted that 1031 was it. I

        iam leery about 1070 and will exit my long before that w/ tight stops

        • Yes… exactly! While he is a good chartist, I didn't think we would get to 1150 and turn back down, allowing everyone a great entry. I said that we would fall short of it, or rally past it.

          The same thing applies to the 1070 level I believe. We should fall short of it (for now, as we still could go back up to it later… as in a month or so?), or we should really fake everyone out and rally past it to 1100 or higher.

  8. Although that 1070 print will likely be hit at some point, the 106.20 spy print from yesterday should carry more weight. So, I would be more inclined to see it hit today, instead of the 1070 spx print.

    If so, that would be about 1060 spx… which would again fall short of the target that everyone is looking for. And that's the name of the game… fool the most people.

  9. 1048 is really a tough break. Volume is dropping big time. not sure what will keep it going.

      • 1048 just broke. What sign are you referring to. Looks to me like they are going to run it through tomorrow and possibly opx.

        • The fact that this looks just like the May 25th to June 1st run up. It's going up to fast to hold, which is bearish in my opinion. Tomorrow might be a pause day, but Friday should sell off hard.

          Also, they are doing reverse splits on most of the 3x etf's tomorrow, which could also be a sign? (They did the same thing back at the April highs).

          I'm also in agreement with BAM Investors this time, as the weekly charts are still pointing down, and they have us in a wave 3 down. I don't think this week will close positive.

  10. This is great! unloading half my shares of each long…unloading 1/4 shares of my shorts..
    DIA, has overnight signals, could go either way, market probably topped intraday.. 1.15 est.

  11. Wow now i have to figure my stops for TNA and SSO.

    How the markets can do this after last week and no good news is beyond me.

    S7P cut through 1050 like nothing.

    Vix however is only at _-7.25 which is not a volume based signal to buy so caution is the game.

  12. Gotta love the rational on Yahoo Finance:

    “Financial shares pulled the stock market higher Wednesday after State Street Corp.'s second-quarter profit forecast topped analysts' expectations.”

      • You folks need to get off this fake print roller coaster. Those fake prints or spikes are known feed issues that have existed for ever. Quotetracker put in an adjustable filter a decade ago to take care of them.

          • Just trying to help. Go to their website and check it out for yourself.

            MEDVED quotetracker.

            Google it if you cant find it.

          • Use this site for what you can learn dand contribute.
            Do not try and change hearts and minds. It is hopeless. I have tried as have others.

          • ahhhh egg…that's the problem with people who want to 'change' others. Rather than dialog with someone using facts or logic, then listen and weigh the evidence, most ppl who want others to change try and shout louder, use force (guns, military, etc), or attack their credibility or social standing so that they feel “left out” or shunned.

            People don't change because you want them to, but because you have a more persuasive argument with the (most recent) known facts at hand. Even then, a man convinced against his will is unconvinced still…

        • I'd be interested to know what “known feed issues” means? What causes a spike arbitrarily? Can said spike change the date posted as some have been in Red's posts? A filter only means they recognize an anomaly and don't want to see it. Hence, that really proves nothing unless the company describes how it arrived at its conclusions (via math, science, computer electronics or voodoo) about the feed.

      • Not yet Reza… and thanks for catching the other one. It might not play out for awhile though. Keep your eyes open, and I'll do the same. I'll inform you if I get something.

    • Could be? I'm not a EW expert, but that's possible I guess. The only thing I'm sure of, is that the 1070 print will eventually be hit. Will it be tomorrow… I don't know? If so, I expect it to sell back off once it's hit.

  13. In 1987 and June 1930 the final spike before the collapse closed on the high of the day and in 1930 it closed near the gap open down of the equivalent of the June 28(?) big down day. I haven't rechecked the 1929 version. (If memory serves me well, it didn't close on the high of the day). The good news is that the following day, the market gave up all the previous day's gains and more. Bad news is it seems we're tracking those markets but over a longer time frame (ie what took 1 day then is taking 3 or 4 days now). My best cycle is due tomorrow but it usually has the turn occur the next day. July 8 will also be the anniversary of the stock market low last year and one month from the June 8 low. They were buying calls like crazy over at ISEE. last number I saw was at 246 which was one of the highest readings of the last few years and up there with the high readings in late March April this year.

    • You are right on. We are going into a depression. The question is can my boyfriend hold us off until the election?

      • Who's your boyfriend… Spock? LOL. You come around when I finally get a call right, and say nothing when I'm wrong. This little site doesn't get enough traffic to disrupt your little system. The retail traders are still fooled by your games. Time for you to leave now Capitan Kirk.

    • I also checked Sept 2008. Similar pattern. SP/ or whatever average drops below the last important low (in 2008 it was the July low—-in fact we might have another anniversary here), penetrates it briefly and endures a sharp snap back rally before the collapse. In 2008 it was a 100 pt 2 day SP rally but we don't want to see that. But it also didn't snapback above the previous shelf high which in this case would be the highs above the 6-25 close.

      • At most, I can see the 1070 print tomorrow on a gap up. After that, it's down hill I believe. However, since they are doing a reverse split on most 3x etf's tomorrow, it could close only as a doji or slightly down.

        Then Friday should be the start of a big sell off, as after reverse split, the insiders will load up on the bearish ones… just like they did when they did a reverse split at the April highs.

      • Here's some more conspiracy finance fun and games: Most of 3xETFS have reverse splits tomorrow. I have keeping quiet about this for a few weeks because I thought they might hold up the market until these splits occur. It prices out the average retail trader and improves the ETFs compounding ability. EDZ already had a reverse split back near the April high. Big boys can scoop up these shares and not worry about the retailers piling in and crowding the trade.
        I really don't mind revealing this now because I don't think anyone is listening anyway. Everyone is looking to the moon. $trin is also extremely low/ and close to the all time low from a few weeks ago.
        Kind of similar to when the short uptick rule was rescinded right before the July 2007 top.

        • Compounding ability is not affected by price. The shares can not get any where near $5.

          This has nothing to do with crowding out the retail investor whose contribution is nil to overall volume on the 3x funds.

        • You are exactly right Geccko… and that tells me a big sell off is coming soon… within days now. It's not conspiracy stuff, as if it works, then it's fact.

          • July 8,1932 was the Gr Depression low. Maybe there having some fun and games with that date tomorrow.

          • Could be? I have others that tell me tomorrow is a turn date. Basically, the same thing was implied that you mentioned… which is that tomorrow could be a doji as the reverse splits happen, forcing out the little guys and allowing the crooks to get in at the ideal spot… before she sinks. If so, that means Friday should be ugly.

            I wonder if they've every changed their plans because of something I caught and posted? (like the Wilshire fake print) LOL. That would be funny as hell if that happened. But, I don't think I get that much traffic, so I really not any threat to exposing their little system.

            Very few people read my posts, and even fewer follow my calls. I'm wrong way more then I'm right, so what's the big fuss over? Can't a little guy catch a worm from time to time?

            You'd think if they were real American's, they'd be going after the Obama Gangster Gang for crimes against all American's… as in the enslavement of the population, and theft of everyone's money… which they plan to do again, when this market comes crashing down again.

            Let's not forget that Goldman Sachs was around during the first Great Depression, and it was all planned too. Of course Goldman made a fortune at the time, and so did JP Morgan Senior.

            A public hanging isn't good enough for these gangsters… how about a stoning like they do in the middle east? You can't just cut off one of their limbs for stealing, as they've stolen so much that they wouldn't have any limbs left… LOL.

  14. so he synthesized all of this info and it works (on occasion), so chuck the methodology that went with and helped him arrive at his conclusion

  15. Its freezing here so I am rugged up, with soup doing some homework….LOL cant wait for the sun to come up.

    Anyway….homework analysis done, and after a big day in the indexes I have spotted some major developments that will effect the next few days trading. As you will see there is major indecision and critical levels abound. I believe this will have a major effect on the next few sessions.

    USD daily – http://s657.photobucket.com/albums/uu293/bigelk

    BONDS Daily – http://s657.photobucket.com/albums/uu293/bigelk

    S & P 500 Daily – http://s657.photobucket.com/albums/uu293/bigelk

    Hope this helps guys and gals. GOOD LUCK TO YOU!!!

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