After such a huge rally, who's left bearish?
Well that would be me of course. Today closed at 106.30 spy, and filled the fake print I posted with 10 cents to spare... What will tomorrow bring? I see two options here: One, a run up to 1070.50 spx, to fill that fake print... or Two, we just open flat or down, and start selling off.
If we pop to 1070 first, then the day should likely back off down to the closing price of today... about 1060 spx. That would give us a doji for the day, and allow Friday to be a big down day... that could wipe out all of today's gains?
OK, here's a third option... we can all take the Blue Pill, and rally on up taking out the Aprils highs and going to the DIA 118.16 print over the next few months. Yes, it's possibly... but not likely. Every time Cobra posts a chart showing the liquidity, it's being sucked out faster then the money in your wallet is (by the government of course).
I find option One or Two the most likely, and give very little odds to option Three. So, should it go up to 1070, that would be a ideal shorting spot, before a huge sell off over the next coming few days. I expect next week too be really ugly, as I believe we are now in a wave 3 down on the weekly chart.
While everyone is expecting a rally up to where ever, to make a larger wave 2 up, with the move from 1220 to 1010 being wave 1, I think 1070 is as far as she going. This ship just popped the nose up into air, before a plunge to the bottom happens.
So, for you bears, the best you can hope for is a move to the 1070 level to fill that gap. For you bulls, you want a small down day to consolidate before another move higher. I also have a print of 112.41 spy, which could be the wave 2 target high... after wave 1 down is complete.
If wave 1 down is complete at 1010, then the larger wave 2 up should go to that 112.41 print before starting larger wave 3 down... which should take us to the Wilshire print level of about 725-730 spx. But that's awhile off yet, so let's just focus on this week for now.
My forecast is simple: Thursday should go up to 1070 and then reverse back down to close slightly negative or a doji, or it should simply sell off from the open and close lower for the day. Friday should be a large down day, closing this week out negative.