Saturday, April 20, 2024

The Bears Are Back!

Wednesday update... we came close enough to the 118.55 SPY FP I believe, and should roll over tomorrow.  I made a mistake in yesterday's video about the Initial Claims and Continuing Claims numbers, as they aren't released until tomorrow morning.  Since we have already went up and got the short term charts all oversold, I now expect the numbers to disappoint and be blamed for the selloff.

(to watch on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiFxWE96Oho)

The charts say we roll over tomorrow, with or without the claims numbers... but the media will likely blame it on them, as they have too report something I guess?  Anyway, I'm looking for selling in the morning at least.  How deep it goes will be based on the data released.  If they aren't too bad, then we shouldn't fall too far.  We got many downside FP's toward the last hour of the day, and most are in the upper 116 level on the spy.  I do think we will hit them tomorrow.  As for Friday... I don't yet?

Good luck everyone...

Red

____________________________________________________________________________________

And they look pretty hungry to me...  (Is this really an Easter Bunny, or a Bull hiding in a bunny costume?)

Finally, the market had a nice sell off... but will it continue?  Stay tuned for next weeks episode of "As The World Turns"... Ugggh, sorry!  I got side tracked on that last sentence.  Sometimes my mind just takes me off on another trail.  LOL.

So, to finish the last sentence in my video... "under normal circumstances, I'm looking for a pause day tomorrow".  But, (and there's always a "but" it seems... wonder why?), since the Fed's are so hell bent on stopping the market from a natural sell off, I'd say we are going to rally tomorrow on better then expected Initial Claims and Continuing Claims numbers, as well as the Fed's Beige Book report.

(to watch on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTHQOfVX2fs)

Too me, it's just going to provide another spot to get short.  Look for the rally (if it happens?) to start around 10 am and end by about Noon (or sooner?).  At that point I'd expect the 5, 10, and 15 minute charts to be overbought.  But, the 30 and 60 will take a few days I believe.

Now, it's going to be more of a "gut feeling" about going short about that Noon time period, as we need to see how the market is acting.  If it's trading mostly sideways, with only a small rally, then we will likely fall into the close and/or Thursday as well.

But if it moves up hard and fast, going higher then anyone expects, then the shorts are getting squeezed badly and we might have too wait until Thursday for the 30 and 60 minute charts to get really overbought again.  That might take the market up to that 118.55 spy FP we got today?

I don't know for sure of course, but those intraday print are usually hit within 1-3 days.  It's going to be more on just a feel for the market tomorrow, as predicting it solely based on the charts is not working in a heavily manipulated market... like the one we live in!

Just remember, sideways trading during the POMO time period equals a "bear flag", and the market should fall in the afternoon, when the short term charts reset themselves and get top heavy again.

But, a sharp move up during the morning session could set up the market for a continued move up on Thursday too... which would allow it to reach that 118.55 spy FP, should they plan on hitting it this week?  Maybe it is meant for another time period?  Hard too say at this point.

Just hang out on the blog and read the comments as usual, and I'll let you know my thoughts when the market gives me some clues.  For now, I'd expect a flat to up day tomorrow.  But more selling is coming, so don't buy into any bullish ideas that this "one day" correction reset the larger time frame charts, and we are going to rally up to new highs now... they are all still very overbought!

Red

Red
Author: Red

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DJ30
DJ30
13 years ago

Hahahah love the pic thats what will happen if you starve a Bear too long. Oh and Red do you think i can contact you personally through msn or something in live time.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Sure, but I don’t have any account with either of them, or use them. But, you can email me anytime. Or you can try the google chat, as I do talk to Anna on that instant messenger.

I have my email open all day, and usually response back within a few minutes of someone sending me one.

DJ30
DJ30
13 years ago

cool let me try to sign up on goggle

Robert
13 years ago

The last two times we closed below the 10dma we rallied the next day about 2%. Guess what, rally time. Buying at the close was an excellent move………….

anoopsan
13 years ago

S&P 500 Analysis after closing: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010/10/s-500-analysis-after- closing-bell_20.html

DJ30
DJ30
13 years ago

red do you mind giving me your gmail so i can add you

DJ30
DJ30
13 years ago

stupid me forget it i found it on contacts

Robert
13 years ago

Thats what i’m talking about. Rally cap on………………..

ACP
ACP
13 years ago

Now the FBI is looking into the mortgage mess – sweet!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AP-source-FBI-looking-at-apf-3419464958.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

One slam after another!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I do feel that a bear squeeze is coming… before the real move down happens.

steveo77
13 years ago

RED, thanks for those graphics for my blog, I haven’t had time to digest and act yet……

Logic seems to foretell a ramp tomorrow….however….
AUD and Cable are near Person Pivots (I use daily, just cause, that’s what I use)

took a short on ES based on that.

Still holding too many QQQQ puts that were having the life and Vega sucked out of them.

Still in QID, will take a week or two of drops to break even, that sucks.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/

Robert
13 years ago

The buy bots have been warming up all night. Time to turn them on……Enjoy……….

DJ30
DJ30
13 years ago

anoopsan do you happen to have anything on the DJ30 ??

pezhead9000
13 years ago

bought:
XLK Dec10 23 PUTS
HK Jan11 19 CALLS

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Does the XLK follow certain companies in the SPX, or does it have nothing to do with it?

pezhead9000
13 years ago

bought:
XRX Jan11 11 PUTS

pezhead9000
13 years ago

tech sector

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Opps… I thought today was Thursday for some reason. I was thinking the claims numbers were out today, but that’s tomorrow. However, we have the Beige book at 2 pm today. I’d love to see that 118.55 print hit by then.

Since the claims numbers come out tomorrow, and the market is currently rallying… if we do hit that FP by 2 pm then I’d expect the Biege book and the claims numbers tomorrow to be bad.

pezhead9000
13 years ago

IRA bought:
PSQ
SH

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I think we are going up to that 118.55 spy FP from yesteday.

ACP
ACP
13 years ago

Wow, if there was ever a clear cut case of manipulation, it’s happening today. The EUR/USD graph is the absolute most hokey BS chart I’ve ever seen. Try harder, Ben! You gotta make it look natural!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Yeah… the dollar is getting killed again. Benny Boy to the rescue (for the banksters of course… not us poor citizens)

Mike
Mike
13 years ago

Time to short again this fed market, today looks like wave 2 up partially closing yesterday’s opening gap and kissing goodbye to previous trendline.Coming next is a larger wave 3 down. We should selloff into friday.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Just waiting for the 118.55 FP to hit… and then it’s time to short.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Since they seem too be in such a big hurry to get up there and hit the FP, I’d say the Beige Book today at 2 pm, and the Claims numbers tomorrow, are likely to disappoint.

Garstein
Garstein
13 years ago

I think you got it right on….

DJ30
DJ30
13 years ago

currently 1178.13 on the SP 500 with 1 hour and 40 mins to go before that somehow hitting that 118 seems round the corner and then look out below weeeeeeeeeeeeee

pezhead9000
13 years ago

hope so

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

That’s what I’m thinking. Maybe we don’t close negative today, but a move down from the high is too be expected. Then tomorrow? Who knows? …but my gut tells me it will sell off.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I don’t think so… the short term charts still don’t look ready to roll over yet, and they still have an hour and a half before the Beige Book. I think they will hit the target before we roll over.

Garstein
Garstein
13 years ago

we hit 118.38…that is probably close enough….

richard
richard
13 years ago

Unfortunately, I think it’s still a bear trap. 🙁
Initiated small short positions in fear………………

richard

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Hang in there… there’s no way to know if the exact level will be hit, or if the top is already in? I’m just basing it on the time left before the Beige Book, and the charts.

It might not get back up there, and the high could be in? Hard too tell right now. I’m just going by my gut mainly… which is wrong a lot (LOL).

richard
richard
13 years ago

Same here. Like you, I am hoping that the biege book will disappoint.

I will keep my fingers cross & hope that this is just a retest of yesterday high.

Looking at the currency, I am hoping that the dollar finds a near term bottom (3 year support line??).

richard

Mike
Mike
13 years ago

The dollar UUP closed its gap from yesterday.Possible scenario is we simply crash with beige book as the dollar skyrockets in iii of 1 of 3rd.

Mike
Mike
13 years ago

We have huge volume so far today. Smart money must be doing a lot of selling. This could get ugly with end of session assuming beige book disappoints.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

What is your indicator cause the VIXES are not supporting a sell off

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Trin is still indicating light distribution 1.18 Nothing like the last few days.

Anna
13 years ago

gonnar rip over 82 es

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I disagree… I think it hits that FP and rolls back down. How far… I don’t know, but after the print is hit, I think it will sell some.

Anna
13 years ago

Well we know that means we go higher if your bearish!! LOL

Anna
13 years ago

a rip your dragon feet rally oh yeah they don’t have feet

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

LOL… I was bullish for today, and we did go up. So maybe I’ll get this call right too?

Anna
13 years ago

Bull shito you said Flat !! own it you said to short it???

Anna
13 years ago

Red btw we didn’t have continuing claims today WTF/?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I said flat/up, and I also stated that I thought we could go up to the FP within a day or so. I didn’t think they would do it all in one day, but I did state that we’d likely hit it at some time soon.

And yes, I made a mistake on the claims numbers. I posted that earlier today. Just tired and misread the dates on them and Beige Book.

Anna
13 years ago

Red, btw that isn’t a fake print on spy to 118.55 there was one to the 116.67 area done! that was late fill kiddie

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Late fill or not… we came pretty close to hitting it today.

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