Monday Update...
(to watch one youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MidBWdQRGJA)
Red
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Wow! Â What an ugly sell off on Friday... so what's next?
[pro-player width='425' height='344' type='video']http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hS2HfjR9oPM&feature=player_embedded[/pro-player]
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hS2HfjR9oPM&feature=player_embedded)
The answer... One Ugly Week! Â While I still think Monday will be an UP day, the overall week should be down hard. Â I know that seems strange to say, but after such a large move down there is usually a bounce... even if it's only a small bounce. Â Think like a gangsters, and you'll figure out that most amateurs went short into the weekend, thinking a crash is coming on Monday.
So what would you do to steal there money? Â I'd gap it up on Monday and create a short squeeze... but I'm not saying that's what is going to happen, as I really don't know (I give that about a 1% chance of happening)? Â The market could fool everyone and gap down and crash as Atilla seems to think. Â He could be correct on this, as that would fool the amateur bulls.
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmxLaYUWVc8)
So what are there in the market... more amateur bulls or bears? Â I don't know? Â Cobra gives Monday a 81% chance of closing up from past statistics when the Vix rises more then 18% in one day. Â Will this time be different? Â It seems too me that the first sell off (wave 1 down) is usually retraced very heavily to squeeze out the bears, before the real multiday move down happens (wave 3).
The question isn't whether or not this is a wave 1 down, as that's obvious. Â The question is where it ends? Â Did it end on Friday, with Monday and possibly Tuesday having the wave 2 up retracement wave to follow? Â Looking back at other similar periods there was an up period everytime at some point in the following week, before that week close out down hard.
I'm thinking that Monday will be up just a little bit, (maybe a spinning top, or "pause" day), and then a squeeze up on Tuesday... followed by the rest of the week selling off hard. Â How far up, I don't know? Â I'll be looking for upside FP's, but right now I don't have any.
Make no mistake about this forecast, I DO expect this coming week to be down hard... but it shouldn't be straight down yet. Â That shouldn't happen until we are in a wave 3 of 3 of 3, etc... which isn't here yet, and might not be here for several months.
Now, there still is the possibility that TPTB cause something to happen before Monday which would just cause a gap down and crash on Monday. Â Anything is possible here, but the past statistics say they we will go up on Monday and/or Tuesday before moving back down into wave 3 (which could easily hit that 1150-1200 range that Atilla mentioned).
These riots in the middle east are growing, and could spark the "crash" that TPTB have been planning, while us sheep try to predict the date. Â We could very well open on Monday and drop like a rock! Â I can't answer that? Â I can only look at past history, and state that it's more likely to bounce back up with a wave 2 first.
If I allow myself to get caught up in this news, I'll likely be one of the bears trapped during a squeeze. Â I've did that before in the past, and I always got burnt. Â They want to distract you with the news, so you will get long or short when they want you too. Â Right now, I think there are a lot of new retail shorts in the market from Friday's sell off, which was simply panic from the "unknown" situation in the news.
There "will be" a "news event" or false flag that will cause the crash... this middle eastern crisis could very well be it? Â I don't know "what" it is, only that something will cause the crash. Â TPTB have that already planned out, and I'm sure they have their evil little minions helping to fuel the riots over there.
So, I really don't know what is going to happen on Monday, but if things play out like they did in the past, then Monday and possibly Tuesday will be UP days. Â If the past does work, the we can safely say that "this time it's different" and actually be right for once. Â So for now, I'll wait for a bounce to get back short again... and hope I get the chance?
For those already short, I'd just sit tight a wait out any bounce (if we get one?) as by the end of the week the market should be a whole lot lower.
Good luck everyone...
Red
P.S.  Thanks go out to Richie and Andy who made a donation to "Feed the Dragon"!  For the other 998 to 1998 people (the blog average 1,000 to 2,000 readers per day), if you make a nice profit this week on the coming crash, and this blog helped guide you... (you'll figure it out)  🙂
Google Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/01/google-weekend-update.html
http://hotoptionbabe.com/blog/99-get-ready-to-rumble-and-new-rates-start-now.html
Sudden upward moves in Silver prices usually happen after a gradual correction downward, and they tend to take the inexperienced metal investing public by surprise.
So do you think silver will go back down as the USD rises?
I’m puzzled by Silver too, as I don’t have any downside FP’s on it… so I don’t know where it’s going when the market tanks? But, if JPM has anything to do with it, they will push it down to cover all the shorts they have. Once they close up all their shorts, maybe then we can go up to the 84.30 FP?
Uncertainty is a driving factor. Interest rates are also important in relation to silver.
There are technical reasons why Silver should go down with the market and the rising dollar. However, one should not ignore the fundamental reasons why Silver should be worth much more.
I say, buy on the dips. Hold the physical stuff and you will be rewarded in the long term of things.
Most of us already know this recovery is a failed attempt. This farce can only continue for so long…
Do you think we can break one key resistance level before you start calling P3?
LOL! Well it’s just fun to start calling out P3! P3! P3!
Damn P3 over already ?!?!?!?!?
oh gawd, you had to mention P3?
lemme go look at the video now..
btw E-mini looks like crap Sunday night.
hey, it’s the 30th, not the 29th! [video]
Yeah, I know now… sometimes I don’t know one day from the next. I’m still getting used too 2011, so being one day off isn’t really that bad (compared to a year… LOL)
oh gawd, you had to mention P3?
lemme go look at the video now..
btw E-mini looks like crap Sunday night.
hey, it’s the 30th, not the 29th! [video]
Gang, for some reason the site was loading really slow, but the tech guy at my hosting company said it was having delay issues loading PayPal. Are all you guys (and gals) overloading PayPal trying to donate? LOL… just dream here.
As expected, the long tentacles of the Fed are spreading overseas in order to pump all the markets that open before the US. ES futures also. Gold down while the dollar is up. 7 1/2 hours to the open…Madman Ben must have bags under his eyes trying to find creative ways to pump the entire world…
“…protesters are taking to the streets with knives, bats and golf clubs…”
Good to see the middle class is involved.
http://cache.gawker.com/assets/images/gizmodo/2008/10/Bat_Gallery_2.jpg
lots of dow 30 stocks report this week. I think that limits the downside on the Dow, for this week.
the egypt news is the ganst’as new signal for sell off days, so sell off days, can happen at their whim, next couple of weeks, is how i’m playing it. 40% shorts going into each overnight for protection is a good idea. imo.
boatload O charts, let me know if you like any
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/
ES Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/01/s-500-futures-before-opening-bell_31.html
well red,
you were right again…. a small bounce come monday morning!! my “expect the unexpected” warning was ‘off base’….. lets see how this transpires out. there seems to me so much ‘risk’ that is far from being priced into the market, which will need pricing in as events unfold.
I wasn’t expecting a gap up, but yeah… I figured we’d go up today. I’m looking for 1288-1290 spx as a top for this wave 2 up. That’s my shorting area.
There are those SPY prints from Friday, which you can still see. Unless, they are FP decoys?
Maybe? Hard too tell as the actually level is so close to the opening price that the could be simply late fills. I think it said 130.01, which is just shy of the opening high of 130.33… so that FP is questionable?
Looks like were losing positive momentum fast.
the NYSE TICK is neutral (to positive) from what I see.
don’t fall for any open amateur hour stuff.
IMHO.
Don’t worry, insane Ben is on it! At the slightest sign of weakness, shank the dollar!
There is still the possibility that we go down one more time to lure in more bears, but the first couple of hours are where it should happen (if it happens) as that’s where the most volume is.
The last hour is also important, and could give us the “B” wave down in this suspected ABC move up (to a 50% or 61.8% Fib. level, I’d estimate), with A taking most of the day, and C likely to happen tomorrow.
Intel halted……because it was going down. NOT ALLOWED!
You’d think that with the riots and Intel’s news that the market would be lower, but that’s not allowed in a rigged game.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/31/technology/intel_guidance/
Not sure what this means, but I watch the SQQQ (3x short NASDAQ)….its got 2.1 million shares of float, it had buy volume of 720k shares the first hour of trading today. 1) Could have been people closing positions or 2) could have been new positions….either way, it says the big boys are not likely long the market any longer or may have established massive short positions…IMHO.
BTW, this is the largest volume ever recorded in an hour for this trading vehicle (SQQQ)
Thanks for the update. I agree, it’s not a time to get long. While I still think that we will go up for a wave 2 in the next few days, that’s only short term, and these big boy’s can’t get in and out at that quickly.
So they have to inch their way in, day by day. I bet there has been similar (but smaller) long positions taken on the 3x bear share on the qqqq’s within the last several weeks.
This is just one more nail in the coffin saying that the rally is officially dead, and just breathing its’ last gasp of air right now before finally dying.
red,
would that be a little baby bull flag i am seeing on the spx right now??
kinda looks like a bull, and smells like bull – well then its probably BULL!! LOL
Yes, it smells like manure to me (I mean “it smells like a bull” to me).
US CIA behind the unrest in Egypt.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=UvI6JqiAZjs
Dow Jones Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/01/dow-jones-technical-analysis.html
So on a more philisophical note – does anyone else out feel like they are being “induced” into a ‘trance – like hypnotic’ state since the 09 bottom, just by daily watching the melt up of the markets??/ or am i the only one?? i personally hate trances and illusions!!
LOL… just sit back and wait Richie. By Wednesday I believe she will be topped. It’s a beautiful day outside here in Florida. I’ve opened up the windows to let the fresh air in. It helps to clear out my thoughts. Sorry for everyone still stuck with cold weather up north… bummer. That’s why I moved to Florida in 1989.
Just hang tight Richie, and sit on your hands. Worst case scenario is that we go up past the 50% or 61.8% Fib level (around 1288-1290 spx) and hit the questionable FP of 130.01 spy from Friday. Either way, this week should end a lot lower.
Sorry, I’ve been saying SPX… I mean ES, which is about 5-6 points lower then the SPX right now, but they have previously be in sync with each other.
When the ES hits 1288-1290, (whatever level the SPX is at), I think the bounce should be about over with. But, time is important too, and I don’t see that happening before Wednesday.
Whereabouts in Florida Red? Gulf? Best side, or used to be. I went to school on a tennis scholarship in Florida. Loved it, but missed outdoor hockey.
Waiting for the C wave up here.
U know, if my theory of distracting us before 2012 is correct, this may be a bear trap. It would be good for me overall, but I like shorting so…………..
Jacksonville Florida (technically Atlantic Beach, but the big city is Jax).
And yes, this is looking like a small B wave down now. I think we’ll see the C wave up tomorrow. I wish I knew the exact target, but I’ll just be looking at the ES for a move to around 1288-1290, and then short the spy… where ever it may be at?
VIX crashed…
Could be a FP? It just had on large candle down to 17.10, but the next candle is at 18.25+… very strange? I’d say we will revisit that 17.10 level by Wednesday at the latest.
But, a crash is coming… and I expect it to start by this Thursday and continue into next Monday, as well as the rest of next week.
The Legatus Pilgrimage will happen this February 3rd-5th, so next week we should see the market turn down hard.
It is showing up on my daily chart – will be interesting to see if it is still there at EOD
SPY Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/spy-chart-analysis.html
Red, any chance you think the 38.2 retracement from Friday’s move might be all we get? Just a thought.
Not likely Dee. Most wave 2’s seem to make a ABC move up. This only has only had one way up now (the A wave), and seems too be making a B wave down now. I still do expect to see a C wave up tomorrow, taking us up to about the 50% fib. level on the ES.
Problem is RED, that is TOO expected, your prognosis. You have been following the casino for quite some time now. Pretend you OWN it.
This may very well be all it gets. OR it goes straight UP and over and up for miles. But we will not get the abc A abc B abc C that every rank amateur Elliott trader is waiting for.
What everyone has been waiting for…
http://www.eurointelligence.com/article/article/eu-started-work-on-brady-plan-for-greece.html?tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=901&cHash=4b161ee475c4529b69969f615be02cbf
Greek debt restructuring and all it’s consequences!
fakeprint qqqq 57.19 screen captured
fakeprint IWM 79.42 screen captured
Lines up with the SPY print nicely…
If all goes as planned, we should go up again tomorrow. But again, this is only a wave 2 bounce, and wave 3 down should start by no later then this Thursday on the job’s data or some other news. A big move down is coming, and it will likely be called a crash.
I have two scenarios:
1. wave 2 is contained at 1292 on $SPX (A went to the highs, B back to 1282, C comes tomorrow), certainly no higher than 1296.
2. you’ve been fooled again, and we gap n go to 1315.
$CRB (commodities index) set a new high today, eclipsing the old one by over 1%. Copper will probably set a new high tomorrow. Recently, copper has been a leading indicator.
http://www.bankfotek.pl/view/879878
PSA 108, should get to 110-111, there’s 3 IYR companies reporting next 48 hours…
At 4:16 pm CST I had a FP for SPY of $34 and change come accross my screen….it stayed there for about 1 minute. Can anyone verify on their end ?
Thanks
YES….I said $34 !!
I never seen the FP you are talking about, but it you got a screenshot of it… please email it too me. Thanks.
What if we BULL past 1,300.
Spy fp of 34? That is crazy. Seriously? Did you capture it? And on what medium?
I find the oil price tearing up, vewy, vewy intewesting. Maybe an oil refinery incident coming?
i think julian assange is a lying bag of fresh brown steaming dog doodoo!!! it is jan 31, and he made a statement to the world whereby he would RELEASE information about a money center bank here in the USA – sometime in january!!!! really julian – REALLY _ JANUARY!! well unless he releases it in the next 2.5 hours, my characterization of him will stand!!
This is one of my pet peeves. Hard to trust people who don’t keep their word.
Like I said… if George Soro’s is funding Wikileaks, then the data they have will be released whenever TPTB want it released.
Yeah, Soros was too distracted with Davos to dump…gotta wait until HE’s ready…
S&P Bullish Harami. Resistance @ 1290 & 1300. If we do fall tomorrow it will be nasty.
Hard to believe that it can go much higher. The last 3 weeks has been 100% dollar driven upwards. Hammering the dollar every day except Friday, which was dollar strength. They would have to spend a crazy amount of money to drive the dollar down significantly upwards.
I think people caught on to the desperation of POMO on Wed & Thurs because offers to sell were on the overly large side. Hard to say what will happen now. RSI only recovered a bit today.
I meant, it would take a lot to drive the dollar down significantly…thinking faster than typing!
Refresh page for new video…
FP of 34.65 spy…
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/fp-spy-34-65-on-01-31-2011.jpg
Intraday FP of 127.69 from today…
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/fp-spy-127-69-on-01-31-2011.jpg
Here’s the datestamp of the 34.65 FP on the spy…
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/fp-spy-34-65-on-01-31-2011-with-timestamp.jpg
It means something, but I’m not sure what?
A stretch, but the price adds up to the date 7/11, which happens to be shortly after money printing 2 ends.
I don’t think we should be focusing on the FP as being a “level”, but more likely a signal. Could it be a “percentage” level down?
True, could be anything……just like in elementary school, we gotta keep our “thinking caps” on……
I ran across a F/P several times. Not sure if I decoded it right but it could point to 0212011 OR 02112011.
Might mean 134.65? Maybe they are changing up the code cause of Red?
RED,
could that FP be a directional print, something that will be filled in a year or so??? just like the DIA print took close to a year to fill, this could be the same?? the time stamp is interesting too… 4:59 or (4+5=9)9 or 99……hmmm….. this is no mistake. the date is 1/31/11 and the volume is 13,387,217 which looks to me like 13, (3+8=11)7,(21=7+7+7)7 or 1311 77777….. isn’t this level where we would have GS at 13/share??? :-)) just thinking out loud
OH YEAH RED,
FORGOT TO ADD THAT 34.65 WOW!! (3+4=7) AND (6+5=11). THAT GIVES US 711….. (and i dont think they want us to go get a slurpee either!!)
ES Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/s-500-futures-before-opening-bell.html
Got a FP of 128.67 three times on SPY premarket at 8:57, 9:05 and 9:08
because of the type of charts I have I can’t do a screen shot – can someone check their programs and see if it shows up there
I also got one for the Q’s for 56.00 at 9:05
Those are late fills from yesterday’s close. SPY close was 128.68
Thanks – I guess I knew that now looking at the closing price from yesterday…
It’s tough to tell with FP’s, but I udually tend to throw anything out that corresponds with the high, low or close of the day as late fills.
We’ve hit 129.98 spy, and the FP from Friday was for 130.01 (I think?), so we still have another push to come.
I show that we hit 130.02 as the HOD so far
It just hit after I typed that… LOL
if you were a bear, and didnt know about that FP – you would probably be mighty grumpy by this move up LOL…..
Yeah, without the FP’s I’d be might upset right now.
I think the last recent fp is the qqqq of 57.19 that z captured? Just a waiting game, I guess.
Yes, I remember him posting it, but I never seen the print. Looks like we’ll get there for sure now. The vix isn’t quite there either, but should hit 17.10 by the EOD, or tomorrow morning.
Crazy stuff! I should have put these pieces together and waited until all of them hit (banging head on door here). So I got short too early (this morning around 129.80)… bummer. I’ll just wait it out I guess.
Same here. I see the 57.19 on my screen right now. These assholes are criminals. RUT up almost 3%, are f&cking kidding me. On earnings???? For what
I also have 130.33 on SPY
The 130.33 was the actual high, not the FP from Friday.
so the FP has been hit??
Yes, the FP has been hit… time to get short again (for those not already short).
Red,
refresh the short term FP’s now?? we have one to the downside now?? i think you mentioned it somewhere??
From yesterday we had a 127.69 print show up, which could be the low today or tomorrow?
There’s more upside. There’s a FP on the VIX of 17.1 that has not been hit. Pretty sure we are going to make a new on SPX
Yeah… that’s right! I forgot about that. Well, that means we could go make a new high… maybe 1313?
i believe we are there now….
We’re almost there. Maybe we go to 130.33?
Well what do you think more upside to come? Or are people entering shorts?
1313-1315 is def. in the cards now. Maybe even higher. I’m done shorting or trying to short this market. Even if we drop 100 points in 1 day, i’m just going to buy the market. Just absolutely ridiculous
Frustration and confusion is back on the gangsta’s menu …..
THE BUG HUG!!!
whoops.. I mean.. BEAR SQUEEZE HUG.