Duh... No Surprise There! Â (P.S. Heavy Volume Means Lot's Of Selling)
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26RkKckko1E)
This is now 2 days in a row that I've been looking for that "Blow Off Top" to happen, but yet to get it. Â Will tomorrow be different? Â I think so, as the short term charts have worked off all overbought and oversold conditions now, and seem too be pointing up going into tomorrow morning.
So, I give the odds at 60/40 in favor of the bulls. Â The 60 minute chart dipped into negative territory on the histogram bars and rolled back up by the end of the day. Â The MACD's on it are now around the zero level and could turn back up positive or go back down negative... therefore they are simply neutral. Â There are similar patterns on the other charts too.
But, the light volume gives the bulls the edge tomorrow, regards of the neutral stance on some of the charts. Â The snow storms up north have kept a lot of traders from showing up to work, which makes the volume even lighter. Â So unless the gangsters decide to trick everyone tomorrow and put out a horrible Non-Farm Payroll number, I'd say we are likely to see that "Blow Off Top" that I've been looking for in the morning session on a possible gap up tomorrow.
However if it gaps ups, history says to fad the gap as it usually goes lower the rest of the day. Â Just the opposite is true if it gaps down, as it usually floats higher. Â Which will happen... I don't know? Â Since I'm still looking for a blow off top, I'd give the odds of a gap up higher then a gap down.
Ok, that's it. Â I'm keeping this simple. Â A gap up is most likely, which should be faded. Â A crash is coming soon, but I don't know when (nothing new there, as I've never known when... LOL).
Good luck everyone...
Red
First!
(you got the date right, woohoo)
LOL… I never said I was a great trader, but sometimes I funny!
Where are all the comments?
Every new post starts off with no comments Ceo. Each old post still has all the comments on them. Just open a second window and look at the old post to read them if you missed something.
nice video Red. Yes, and it’s much easier for them to “fix” elections.
Very sad when one sees actually how contolled everything is. It’s getting to the point that they dont give a damn how obvious it all is. I had a sell signal on gas/oil thats about it.
Geccko23, this chart is for you buddy. (SPX 1313)
http://tinypic.com/r/2lt1xkm/7
I had this chart back in October as a joke.
Took notice in December.
And now it’s gospel brother!
-GG
That looks like a FP to me, as I don’t see anywhere in 2010 that the market hit 1313 spx. Am I missing something?
ok, you’ve had a few beers.
let me talk you down.
the vertical & horizontal lines are my crosshairs.
circled is 1313.
if you follow the horizontal left, you’ll see a high in Aug 2008.
also, the current trend channel will intersect the descending upper fibonacci fan line, on the 11th, also at 1313.
so it’s a double signal confirmation.
clear as mud?
Well… no beers, but I am getting sleepy now. Too tired to focus I guess? I’m going to bed now. Wait me up when we crash!
http://ny-image1.etsy.com/il_fullxfull.81592069.jpg
Are you sure that’s Leo? Looks kinda like Smaug.
http://lotr.wikia.com/wiki/Smaug
So in other words, the quants are in complete control of the market and there’s no use trading any other way.
just charting out a 5month trend that is approaching an imaginary fibonacci line in future time.
1) why step in front of a train?
2) if the price stops/reverses at the line, you have an edge.
Yeah, exactly – such a narrow course shows how programmed this market is.
Yes, that is nice. It’s also a DeMark 9 week extension of consecutive closes above the close 4 periods earlier above the April high. Somehow DeMark has come to issue a major sell signal although he is calling for only a 11% correction. There is so much much more that I haven’t posted including weekly cycles. solar eclipse cycles, South Sea Bubble cycles. But I am posted out. Have a happy Facebook Day!!!!
I mentioned earlier I liked the idea of 1313 as a bookend to 666 only to subsequently find out that it already happened ie 29 weeks from August 2008 high to March 2009 low. It is now 129 weeks to the August 2008 high. So I am liking 1307 even better now that there have been two closes at this level.
Here’s the key scene indicating 1307 is the number. http://www.reelzchannel.com/gallery/23269/the-social-network-photos/?pid=69791 I need to find a better photo for this scene but this will have to suffice. Check the lighting in the backgrounnd.
Where did you see anything indicating a market top in that?
Not sure the Non farm payroll or unemployment rate matter anymore.
If you control the money supply and what is being reported then the market will go in the direction you want it to go.
ES Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/s-500-futures-before-opening-bell_04.html
CSCO Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/cisco-trying-to-close-gap.html
That wasn’t a very big “pop”… bummer! That means they are likely to stretch this out some more next week (or it was just too weak to pop up on the horrible NFP report?)
9% unemployment – what a crock more like 17%
Yeah, and soon to be 25%!
Why expect liars to tell the truth ever?
Come on, that’s great news! All we need is another 10 million people give up looking for work and we’ll be down to 4% unemployment. Problem solved!
I agree,…I was looking for a nice pop and then crash… They never follow the script anymore though.
Why do I get the feeling that this market isn’t going anywhere today but sideways?
LOL! Whatever your gut is telling ya,..do the opposite. That’s how crazy this market is. It’s the “Costanza effect.”
What’s the opposite of sideways? How do I play that one? Stay out the market I guess… such B.S. the market is!
To the gangsters, sideways is the opposite of an up move. They don’t like anything other than a rocket ride to fill their banker gangster pockets.
SPY Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/spy-hour-chart-analysis.html
Remember I had that FP from yesterday 129.66 ish SPY
Just trying to make everyone feel more optimistic
Maybe that’s the close for today Dee?
Well you also had a FP of 127.69 right?
Yes, but who knows if that FP is valid or not? … or even it if is valid, when will it hit?
Well it seems that most of the ones within a few bucks always hit… looks how outrageous DIA 118.16 was…. I too am more impatient that you know – I just did my books and again another loss for the month – this is getting old. I would think that TPTB would want to steal the most and that would be from the Bulls.
I am going to tune into the Alex Jones Show – he will get me fired up and I will feel better 🙂
Is this where they sell it off to buy less expensive call options?
top is in place
sell here
kb,
tell me – why you know this?? share with me….
trading system
Few years agoo i was following like many people here the elliot waves.Many people trying to predict the top end bottom before is in place.
What is different ,i do not predict ,i just wait to happen and acting accord.
I can’t say is the top for year/month or week…..i will wait the bottom of the current top.
Do you think that Bill Gates (or any other smart and rich guy) predict that they will make 10$ or 10000000000XXXXX$ at the begining?
Do not try to predict anything !!! Just go with the flow!!!!
kb,
i respect that! very good….. thanks for explaining.
But how is this in the region of the top, is the question?
S&P 500 to top out at 1400 then topple to 400:
http://www.commodityonline.com/commodity-stocks/SP-500-to-top-out-at-1400-then-topple-to-400-2011-02-01-36105-3-1.html
Well, if this pig is going to 1400, then I need to take a vacation until it gets there… as I sure as hell ain’t going long!
it is funny listening to people say, we are going down, no we are going up, no we are going sideways…….someone shoot the nasdaq! I think we are rounding, myself.
Patience is the key
you mean patients while I get my face stomped into the ground? Or patients while I watch my gains grow? lol. I know what you mean, very important to have self control. thanks
I feel like the stock market is the biggest hustle in the world, and I’m always the one getting hustled!
NOPE – It is me!
The talk on the news is there may be a run on the banks in Egypt on Monday – banks have been closed for ten day – what will this do to our markets?
Hmmm… if there is a bank run in Egypt on Monday, the markets will rally as those banks will go out of business and leave only the gangster banks in the US left to rob the public. Less competition equals a higher stock price. I’m going long on BAC and it could hit that FP of 300 Monday.
LOL!!!! You are funny – really a serious question…
Under normal circumstances I’d say our market would tank, but the Fed’s control this market, so if they don’t want it to tank… it won’t. But simply, I have no idea what a bank run in Egypt will do to the US Markets.
US Dollar Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/us-dollar-chart-analysis.html
My options are moving soooooooooo sllllllllllllllllowwwwwwwwwwwww.
QQQQ going to hit that FP of 57.45 today.
Wow, all the recent downwards prints seem so far, far away…
dee/red,
my vote is that the world’s markets have a heart attack because a 13 year old kid throws a moltov cocktail at the suez canal – which makes it close, which spike oil to 200$ and sends economies into deeper recession!!! all happening on MONDAY!
You’re too optimistic Richie!
what can i say red, i am a born optimist….. LOL
richie – hope you are psychic no psycho!!! LOL
dee,
23 months into this unending rally – i would fall under the pSYcho category for sure..LOL
UPDATE 1-Venezuela sees $200 oil if Suez canal closes:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/04/venezuela-oil-idUSN0422466520110204
LOL, nice article Dz – maybe i am ‘un’crazy after all….
This is the the Fed’s not-so-subtle way of telling everyone that they fully intend to push our money into pockets of Madman Bernanke’s criminal buddies, while draining money from all the other little banks that are struggling to survive.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/716774bc-2e31-11e0-8733-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1D18svEhr
We are coming to the end of the apex of this triangle now. The market will soon have too breakout over the overhead resistance level around 131.00 spy, or breakdown from the rising support line from the December 31st low around 128.00 spy. I say we break up… as the gangsters won’t let this P.O.S. market fall.
OK…here is another scenario that I have put together for you guys. I’ve shown you the first 2 charts….look specifically at the 3rd chart.
http://kbsctrading.blogspot.com/2011/01/jan-27-2101next-14-dayssymmetryfractals.html
Very interesting there KB…
By the way, I just added your blog to my blogroll… 🙂
Thanks RED….I will recipricate as soon as I figure out how to do it……you looking 35 today ?
IFN nice $1.50 channel, long and then short at the 200 day. one of these times ifn is going above it’s 200 day 30.8 or so.
red,,,,,WTF — we have short term FP to the downside and none of them are being respected?? have they changed the game?? are too many people aware of the FP?? they only seem to respect the upside ones, and the downside ones are left unfulfilled!!! very uncool.
VIX could go up 2-10% on Monday, not trusting this 16 retest. I’ll avoid longs, for overnights.
Except, of course, if Mubarack steps down and the quants are programmed over the weekend to spike the Dow 250 points on Monday…
The Vix is a friend of mine, until it goes psychopathic, and I get scared of it. Right now, it favors the bears. your scenario is in there too! VIX 13’s.
George Soros must have had a dentist appointment today.
Yes Richie, the FP’s only work for the bulls, not the bears. The bulls are fed and taken care of by their master while the bears roar free in the forest. The masters hate this, and hunt the bears to make them their slaves too.
Just go long and join bulls Richie! Join the “Darkside” Luke… it’s OK be a slave!
RED,
no worries…. i would rather sit on the sidelines and wait – no market can go up forever – i am short from 1293ish and i have to mitigate loss if this market breaks up to the upside though…
Where do I sign up for the Darkside? Send me an application!
Oh wait, I wouldn’t be able to pass a background check……I’m not a murderer, rapist, thug, robber, fraud artist or any other type of felon……never mind……
If there is a FP that corresponds roughly to $SPX 1295 or so, that would be totally in line with my target. I posted a chart in a separate comment, take a look!
An interesting article :
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Is-the-Feds-Real-Target-1755-cnbc-986859246.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
It says the Fed’s real target on S&P is 1,755 ???!!!!
The bears will be extinct by then!
maybe by 2013, 1755, but not this year…mid feb pullback will arrive on mid feb… pullbacks for me have starting dates, and mid feb is the next date on my time allotments.
TODAY’S TRIVA…
29 members of ***** have been accused of spousal abuse,Â
7 have been arrested for fraud,Â
19 have been accused of writing bad checks,Â
117 have bankrupted at least two businesses,Â
3 have been arrested for assault,Â
71 have credit reports so bad they can’t qualify for a credit card,Â
14 have been arrested on drug-related charges,Â
8 have been arrested for shoplifting,Â
21 are current defendants in lawsuits,Â
And in 1998 alone, 84 were stopped for drunk driving, but released after they claimed immunity.
WHO IS IT?
is it the house of representatives or the members of the united nations???
ANSWER:
The US Congress!
Bingo! You are correct!
Trump tower casino employees?
LOL… yeah, those guys too I guess! Let’s include Donald in that group as well.
Congress, right?
Bingo! You are correct too!
ok red,,,this is my last go
the HOD was 1311 – a spooky number as 1(3=1+1+1)11 or 111/111….something that makes you go hmmmm…….and then there is monday – i wonder what color monday brings??
I hope you hedged for Monday…
I don’t know WhyTF I just don’t buy strangles? This is ridiculous. BTW, the Q’s up print can be considered hit today…
How about this 1310.85 = 13 (1 x 8+5 or 1 x 13 = 13) or 1313
Ok yes, I have slipped into total insanity… have a good weekend everyone… headed to my mountain house to freeze my ass off! LOL
Enjoy your piece of mind Dee, as it’s better then stressing over this P.O.S. market!
How did you like my numbers? Wonder if they (TPTB) ever get that “complicated or creative”???
I like Richies idea too…
Maybe they are on to us and created a new code… just screwing with us more and more.
Will look for your update Red – have a good one and yes, it is a major P.O.S. market!
Just saw a print of 131.45 on SPY corresponding with about 1313-1314 SPX cash. UP, UP we go
Just great! More B.S.!
Also a print at 130.37. JUST got a Qs print at 57.04.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Is-the-Feds-Real-Target-1755-cnbc-986859246.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
UP UP to next week 1320/30 this months target 1262 ???
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2010/02/treasury_supple.html
sorry 1362
GG checks his calendar.
1313? nope
February 11th? nope.
“carry on.”
SP closed at (13)(10.87) with a high at 1311 up 3.77(ie1307tribute)….1313 is around 1087pts above the 10-19-1987 close of 224.83….actually closer to 1311. Last year, the market bottomed on Feb 5 and now I saw on another site that the Tulip bubble mania topped on Feb 5,1637 or 374 years ago. Of course, 7years ago today, Social Network founder had his revelation and 3 months ago on Nov 5 the stock market topped out at 136tds from the April high. The dollar bottomed at the same time.
The South Sea Bubble put in a Bwave high around this time in 1721, 290 years ago (29–crash number) around the time of Saros 136’s first appearance as a total solar eclipse on January 27, 1721 ie 1-27-1721 (a lot of 127s there—see 127 hours,PearlHarbor,Boston TeaParty). Saros 136’s latest appearance occurred 18 months ago with the lunar eclipse following it occurring August 6,2009 with the 18 month cycle coming in 2-6 which also happens to be 23months from 3-6-9 bottom. Currently, this week is 23 weeks from the August bottom.
Monday is 2-7-11. Today, most averages put in a slightly higher high than achieved on 1-27 with lower RSI readings including the Nasdaq.
There were 73 weeks down from Oct2007 high to March 2009 low. The rally since then has now exceeded the 2007-2009 downleg by 37 weeks.
With today’s action, it looks like the stock market has now put in 5 waves up from last week’s low and according to DeMark wave, there should have been 5 waves up from the July low. (haven’t reviewed the paramaters of D-Wave again but the Nov correction definitely made a new 13day low and came close to a 21day low while the Dow definitely did—-I believe 13days is only required—21 days for a change of trend)
Today is 111 trading days from the August low.
2 plus 7 is 9!!! OMG 9-11
evil reptiles!!!
Wow, I didn’t see that. I was looking more of the 127 angle. Anyway, I saw a photo of a NYSE trader in the Wall Street Journal with the #2711 on his jacket back in December so I have been attuned to that date since.
One of those hiding in plain sight moments.
hi red,
let’s assume,
Let’s say Ben B. / gov’t knows exactly what he’s doing, and he wants food and commodities to go to extravagant levels and stay there. He wants depressed home prices. He exactly wants high unemployment. etc. What are some of the behind the scenes, reasons for that?
In one of his older academic papers, he criticized the Japanese QE efforts because they always included disclaimers and hedges to reassure the bond markets.
He argued strongly that the key to successful reinflation efforts was to convince the entire world + bond market that the agency (in our case now, the Fed) is totally irresponsible and irrational. Once everyone is divorced of any notion that you will protect your own currency, etc. they will take your reinflation efforts far more seriously.
In essence, the markets will go from the assumption that “they can only reinflate until this trendline, so I will short at X level” to “OMG they don’t care! Buy buy buy!” This process was never successfully achieved by the Japanese because more conservative interests would always rein in the QE efforts.
Once the Fed identifies that sentiment has tipped in their favor (last summer was probably that point), they merely need to ‘threaten’ more QE, and the market will be trained to respond accordingly.
The ‘trickle down’ of this paper wealth is only a small increase in spending. However, it might be enough to push the GDP into a +3% zone, which could ultimately become self-sustaining and allow the economy to slowly grow out of the massive debt burden.
One more thought: Once commodities skyrocket to a certain level, emerging economies will get crushed. ‘Smart money’ will get withdrawn from those investments and pushed into developed markets as they are better able to withstand the margin pressure.
I.e. Money will flow out of bonds and emerging markets and into commodities and developed markets. This is very much an ‘every man for himself’ scenario.
My prediction for next week:
http://www.screencast.com/users/dreadwin/folders/Default/media/14a1ceec-bda2-46f8-bb04-b760b68bba8e
Hi dread, I think you’re onto something. You’ve been dead on so far.
Right before every aggressive move up, there is a shakeout that strikes terror into the bulls hearts. It never fails.
hey Red,
if this Legatus thing works out (e. i. crash), I’m changing my diqus log in to carberius or kerber…seems like we have to go ancient Roman to fit in…LOL…
Well, it worked out perfectly 2 years when Reinhardt caught onto it, and posted it on Yahoo Finance. But now that they’ve been exposed (even Jesse Ventura did a quick piece about it on his Conspiracy Theory Show), it might not work again?
While we did go up to the DIA FP of 118.16, and turn down shortly afterwards, it wasn’t a turn down for good! As we all know now, the market sold off only one day hard and then rebounded to this insane B.S. level that we are at now.
We should already be in Primary Wave 3 down, but the gangsters change the rules once us sheep discover their evil plans. So, I don’t know how effective the Legatus Pilgrimage turn date will be this time?
Maybe it still will work? I really don’t know? If so, it should start sometime next week. We’ll see I guess…
Red – we didn’t see a change in trend with their last meeting in August did we?
Red, This market is in a powerful uptrend. The trend is your f*cking friend!!
GDX Chart: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/gold-miners-gdx-chart-analysis.html
Red, did you see this video, a UFO over Jerusalem last week.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQ-bNOy_CKQ
Here is another view of the UFO from Jan 28.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rY2FFEufsuY&NR=1
wow, thanks…I’ve see less convincing version from the distance, but this shows another angle, so it’s 100% real…someone should compare two videos frame by frame as it comes down…
Someone did compare:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwp_WHFhA4A
thanks, here is a daytime video from Dec 2010
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qiSmdhQ88Ts&feature=related
Did you catch that too, newbear? I saw it yesterday and the video is breathtaking if real…
delayed trading reaction off the employment news, ( dismal), market probably goes down on Monday, when it should have gone down on Fri. my hero to zero guess, based on historical averages.
delayed trading reaction off the employment news, ( dismal), market probably goes down on Monday, when it should have gone down on Fri. my hero to zero guess, based on historical averages.
Hey Red,
I found a scary radioshow regarding the devaluation of the dollar, similar with what Lindsey Williams was saying on Prison Planet.
I post it on my blog if you want to listen to it.
http://aninformedmom.blogspot.com/
k’d some adz.
I no longer make market prediction as the AHL20000
AAPL Weekend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/02/apple-weekend-update.html