We finally got the big squeeze up I was looking for, and while I don't think it will be straight up to 7600 or wherever, I do see this move up lasting for longer then many expect and a new all time high happening. Why? Because we got too oversold on the short term and everyone and their brother is mega bearish now. So they have too turn bullish before we get another big drop, and that means a double top at minimum, but more likely a blow off top to 7600+ is a MUST in my opinion. Plus we have the cover of the Economist telling us that it will retest the highs (again... a minimum). Below is a zoomed in image of it in case you haven't seen it.
As you can see we do have a small pullback around the midpoint of the rally up according to that chart. Again, I don't have a long enough track record of the prior years covers to know how accurate they are or not, but I do think the message is clear on this one... bottom in the first quarter, massive squeeze back to double minimum, and then another drop that fails to retest the prior lows but gets close. After that we get up and downs into the elections and appear to have the start of the next biggest drop afterwards, which will likely carry into the first quarter of 2027 where we will eventually fill the 5339 gap on the ES... but that's for another day.
April 2nd, 2026 wave count below...
For the present I'm looking for a little more up to finish Medium Wave 1 up, not M3 as posted on the chart from April 2nd. I've changed that wave count a little as I this rally will last into late May or even June, and then Medium Wave 4 down should follow, but again... it doesn't look huge on the chart from the Economist and from a technical point of view it should only be deep enough to suck in some more bears looking for another big drop.
That Medium Wave 4 should be the choppy topping process that could drag out into August before the last push up to finish it all... then we get the crash drop into the fall like many prior big drops happen.
New Update Wave Count...
Anyway, for the short term, we should end (could have already happened?) Small Wave 3 up soon, then a quick Small Wave 4 down, and finally a Small Wave 5 up, to end Medium Wave 1 up. This could all happen within the next 2-3 days with the 6900 zone as a magnet.
It's Medium Wave 2 that could be a decent pullback to lure in some more shorts before the last hurrah up to a double top or new high into summer, with some flexibility on the time line (meaning it could end early, like May/June, or drag out into August) based on how high it goes and how may waves get completed. Plus we need to see the bears give up and go all in long.
Back to the short term... after Medium Wave 1 ends (in a few days at most), Medium Wave 2 should be an ABC that drags out into late April (with the 19th-24th as the ideal zone) where the end of that move happens, and so should the war in Iran. This will be the period that frustrates the most traders as Medium Wave 2 will not take out the current lows but will tease everyone with fast drops that get bought up but make you think it's going lower.
After Medium Wave 1 up finishes (this week), we should see Small Wave A down into early next week, then Small Wave B up (OPEX week rally) and Small Wave C down the following week. Somewhere in that period we should see the bottom of this ABC correction for Medium Wave 2, which will align with the war finally ending.
It's at that point where we'll see the mega squeeze up on the market that tricks the masses looking for the old "Sell In May, And Walk Away" pattern to play out, as it should be a non-stop rally for Medium Wave 3, and it could reach 7600+ into the end of that wave, then do the choppy Medium Wave 4 (an ABC) into August where we might see some last "higher high" up to some ritual number, like 7777 or something? That will end Medium Wave 5 up and Large Wave 5... and then all hell breaks loose.
Have a great weekend.
