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ES Morning Update January 25th 2019

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The futures are up decently this morning after doing mostly chop yesterday. The bulls did a great job of holding on yesterday and not giving up too much ground. There's an "inverted head and shoulders" pattern on the the chart that I forgot to mention yesterday, and it looks like it might play out today. I was hoping for one more drop to the lower trendline in the falling green channel but the bulls wouldn't allow it.  I guess we are off to 2700-2720 now as that sideways action we've had over the past few days appears to be finished. This suggest it was a wave 4 of some degree and we are starting the 5th wave up now.

Bulls will need to take out the prior high today I think or risk another drop and continuation of the wave 4 down. Meaning that while the wave 4 down looks complete it could morph into an ABC pattern where we only seen the A wave down so far (the part inside the falling channel) and we are in the B up now... which leaves a C down (likely target is 2590-2600) to complete the wave 4 down.

This would certainly be a tricky move by SkyNet as everything appears to be finished on that wave 4 down right now and I'd guess most will see this rally up as the 5th wave... which it could be?  If that high from last week is taken out then I too think it's a 5th wave. But if it fails then it would be a double top and another drop should follow, which again suggests the wave 4 isn't yet finished and is subdividing.

On a bigger picture we are close to finishing this rally up from the 12/26 low and a big drop is likely coming soon... like starting next week. Will it be the drop that takes out the December low? I don't know? We only have a FP for 245.29 on the SPY for a target, and that could be all the market gives us... meaning no lower low. Again, we'll worry about that when we get there. For today though I'll just be watching closely around the double top zone to see if this subdivides into an ABC wave 4 down or if this really is the final wave 5 up. Have a great weekend.

ES Morning Update January 24th 2019

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Ok, the market appears to be in some kind of tiny wave 4 down. It's a choppy one with bounces up and down to shake out both sides, and it "may" have already bottomed? Not sure yet? It also appears to be making a bull flag as shown with the two green lines that form the flag part and a falling channel. So if the market can drop one more time to tag the low trendline of that channel I'd guess that the next move up would breakout of it and make a run for 2700+ for the tiny wave 5 up.

Once done (probably next week some time during earnings) the entire rally up from the 12/26/18 low should be complete. It's some kind of B wave I believe so the move down to follow it will be the start of a C wave. But, there's also a chance that the entire move up is just a wave 4 of the big A down from the all time high last year and the next drop will only be the 5th wave of that A down... and then a B wave up into the summer will start. Since we don't know which is correct we just need to focus on catching the moves inside it the best we can.

For now I think we have one more drop in this bull flag that should touch the lower part of it around 2590-2600, which might happen today or tomorrow. After this week ends though we should see that final rally up into next week for the earnings, and it should end the big move up from the 12/26 low. Now, we have a FP from earlier this month of 245.28 SPY and that will be my focus going forward into February as the most likely downside target before a turn. When it comes to FP's the short term "intraday" ones don't always market turning points but the bigger one's usually do. So when we hit that downside level I would expect it to turn back up. The hard part will be figuring out if it's just a short lived bounce or if that drop put in the bottom for many weeks to come.

But that's out in the future so we'll cross that bridge when we get there. For today and tomorrow I'm just looking for that last drop inside the fall channel before an earnings rally next week. If we breakout of the channel today and hold it then we might not see that drop happen. I'll only play what is given to me... meaning, no drop equals no long into next week. And shorting here (or going long) is like flipping a coin with 50/50 odds of getting the direction correct. But I won't say it's really that bad of odds, as I do favor a drop more then a breakout here... just not enough to go heavy short on it. A small "gambler" short... yeah. Anyway, have a great day.

ES Morning Update January 23rd 2019

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I'm feeling a whole lot better today gang as yesterday I was quite sick and didn't do a morning update post. My runny nose seems to have stopped mostly now, but it's so sore it looks like Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer. The headache and fever is gone, and the sore throat is mostly gone. Overall I'm a ton better today then yesterday. Sucks getting so sick as I rarely do but I guess the extremely cold weather kicked my but from going inside and outside too much over the last few days.

Anyway, the market did indeed turn down on the 22nd but I missed it looking for one more "slightly" higher high. However, there's always another opportunity around the corner. Yesterday morning around 9:08 am there's a possible FP showing 266.42 on the SPY, so that could be the rally high for today or tomorrow? Hard to say if it's a real FP or not as it's too close to the Friday afterhours close.

And after yesterday's nice drop the bulls don't usually make it so easy as to "just short the next days bounce" as we'd all like them to do. We might see a few days of chop between Fridays high and yesterdays low before the next leg down happens. Plus there's also some evidence to suggest that drop was just a wave 4 down of some degree and a 5th wave up to a slightly higher high is still coming. I'm just going to remain neutral today to see what unfolds. Overall I'm bearish but I would not be surprised to see some chop today before anything clear appears.

If we go up all day and make a lower high then yesterday (high odds that we won't take out yesterdays high) then we could be in a tiny B wave up with that first drop being the A wave down, which would setup a tiny C wave down into Thursday. That would be the ideal setup I think as then they could do another move up on Friday and into the close on Monday to finish off that possible 5th with some high this is slight lower or slightly higher then Friday.

Many 5th waves fail so a lower high would not be out of the normal. The next few days should be super interesting as we could be setting up for a very large drop. It just shouldn't be super easy to spot as SkyNet loves to trick both sides into being on the wrong side just before a big move.

Today and tomorrow should play out as a tiny B up and tiny C down and that should complete a 4th wave down. From there though it could get tricky going into early next week. I'm still thinking we are headed down hard in the coming weeks but timing the exact top of the last day before the big drop isn't going to be easy. So let's just take it day by day and root for a nice green close today with the market grinding up most all day long. Give me that and the tiny B up should be complete and allow a tiny C down tomorrow to take out yesterdays low. Good luck.

ES Morning Update January 18th 2019

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The futures are up again this morning after a late day pop and drop yesterday occurred on some fake news report (put out to cause a bear squeeze I'm sure) about the government shutdown ended. We should hit the FP today on the SPY from the looks of things and there's a new one that showed up this premarket morning around 8:00am EST showing a high of 266.55 on the SPY, which is a bit higher then the 264.85 FP from the 9th of this month that I have. Since this one is so close it could be hit today, or next Tuesday at the latest (closed on Monday for a holiday).

Usually those kind of prints that are so close to the current price act like a magnet and pull the cash market up (or down) to hit that level, so today has been odds I'd think. Regardless of whether that's a real FP or not it's pretty clear that the 264.85 FP from the 9th is a real one as it's within spitting distance of being fulfilled right now. Next week I expect a move down to start but I'm not sure yet on how far it drops? It depends on if this new FP this morning is hit today or not? If not, and if it's not hit on Tuesday either, then we might only drop to 2600 SPX or so and then back up for that FP later in the month.

I'm just thinking out loud here on how SkyNet could trick us all by showing us the FP and then not hitting it today or Tuesday. I'd prefer to see the FP hit on Tuesday with another green close (I want one for today too of course, and we should get one due to the SPY needing to be pinned where the most options expire worthless). If you give me that (a green close today and Tuesday), with the new upside FP hit, then I'll become much more bearish and expect only a bounce on the move down to 2600 SPX for a lower high, and then another drop lower toward 2450 or so in the coming days to weeks. Anyway, I cross that road when we get there and adjust accordingly. Have a great weekend.

ES Morning Update January 17th 2019

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The bulls did a good job yesterday of grinding up higher throughout the day and still closed green even though they gave back some going into the end of the day. Afterhours that pullback continued but this morning the market is barely down. The important thing for the bulls was to hold that 2600 SPX, 24,000 DOW, and 7,000 Nasdaq level... and so far they are doing just that. The market is quite overbought up here at these levels so it could rollover at any time, but with this week being the monthly options expiration it's likely that they will hold it up until the close Friday to pin the SPY where it does the most damage to put and call holders. Looking at the open interest on the SPY there's a lot of puts at the 260 level and not much for the calls until 265, which is still half in volume of the puts at 260.

Of course this changes throughout the day but since there's only two days left it shouldn't change much. It suggests to me that a move up toward 265 (2650 SPX) is more likely then a move below 260 (2600 SPX). The sideways action we've had recently looks like a wave 4 of some degree, so this current move up is likely a final 5th wave of some degree. It could end at any time but I still think not big on the downside will start until next week due to the month option expiration manipulation that happens so much. Anyway, not much on the technical picture other then "overbought", "overbought" and "overbought"... which as you know just means we are close to a turn down but never forget that the market can remain overbought longer then most people expect. Have a great day.

ES Morning Update January 16th 2019

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The market finally broke out of the choppy sideways trading range yesterday and took out DOW 24,000, SPX 2600, and Nasdaq Composite 7000. This morning see the futures up slightly in the premarket session. It's not acting like a strong bull market move up of course but I'm sure that's because this move is just a bounce in a bear market and they are supposed to grind up against the trend... which what the market seems to be doing this morning.

I don't have much more to say that I didn't already say, and that is that there is a gap fill on the ES Futures at 2651 that needs hit at some point this year, and this current rally up could be the one that does it. It doesn't have too do it with this rally of course as it could wait until the summer rally to fill it I guess, but it's so close now that it feels too me like that is the upside target for this move up. There's also an upside FP on the SPY in that area too, so that's another reason to rally up there in the coming days. That's all I have for today, so I'll end this update to keep it short and simple. Good Luck.

ES Morning Update January 15th 2019

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Not a lot to add that hasn't already been said. The market is now going on day 5 of a tight sideways trading range. There's tough overhead resistance around the 2600 SPX around and DOW 24,000 zone. Time is the issue here as it's running out for the bulls I believe, whereas the bears as just "holding the line" until this time runs out. Today sometime or tomorrow is about all the time left for the bulls to make their move up with a breakout.

After that I think the short term chart will have worked off enough of the oversold conditions to be overbought or neutral... which is where the bears should take back control again. I'm still leaning slightly in favor of the bulls here but only slightly, as by tomorrow if they don't breakout I'll become a bear again. Trying to accurately predict the next move when we are in a tight sideways trading zone for multiple days isn't something that is easy.

It's more of a "best guess" based on a slew of factors... like seasonality, which week of the month it is, what's the bigger time frame charts look like, are there any FP's that are still unfilled, and "turn dates" near by? Then there's just a gut instinct based on all those factors. In the end it's just like throwing darts blindfolded, where you hope and pray that your arm has "muscle memory" from all the years of practice. In the meantime I'm just waiting and watching for a higher odds play to setup. Happy Tuesday.

ES Morning Update January 14th 2019

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The futures are down a little this morning, which in the old days a drop of 20 points was a mini crash, but today it's a normal move. The MACD's however look oversold a little on this 60 minute chart but still slightly overbought on higher time frames like the 6 hour. My best guess about today is that it will float around this bottom early in the day and rally back up some later on, but still close red.

This week I suspect we'll see some choppy action as the market doesn't look ready to go back down yet but is also up against some tough resistance above. There's always a fine line on how long something goes sideways as the normal pattern is to breakout to the upside at some point from forming a bull flag. But if sideways too long the bull flag fails and another drop follows.

I would estimate that if we trade sideways today then tomorrow or Wednesday would be the last chance for the bulls to breakout if they plan on filling that gap overhead at 2651 from 12/13-12/14. After Wednesday I think odds will go down quite a bit on that happening and odds will increase on another drop starting.

I still don't think we are going to revisit the 12/26 just yet, that might not happen for another month or two? It's just too early right now to revisit that low as the larger time frame charts are still too bearish and need to work some of that off first before going back down hard again. Anyway, let's keep it simply for now and just focus on the short... which I already covered. Time for some coffee.

ES Morning Update January 11th 2019

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Yesterday the bulls did a great job of chopping sideways to slightly up after pulling back at the open first. They are carving out a nice bull flag by going sideways in a tight range. This morning we are down a little again, just like yesterday. We are also getting really close to a rising trendline of support on this 60 minute chart of the ES Futures. The longer it goes sideways the higher the odds are that it breaks out to the upside. The big short I was looking for yesterday never showed up.

There wasn't any quick move up and reversal but instead a move down in the morning and a slow grind higher all day. We could see a small red close today but the way the bulls are acting I would not be surprised if they don't do a late day rip higher. This move sideways still looks like a tiny wave 4 down to me, so a tiny wave 5 up should come soon. After that we should complete the small C wave up of the ABC up from the low on 12/16. As far today, it's about as tough to predict as yesterday.

There's no strong edge for bulls or bears here. The bulls are up against some strong resistance but the bigger time frame charts are still very oversold. So the bulls should have the advantage on this bounce continuing but they might need to pull back some next week before trying to push higher. I'll end this update here and post any additional comments or charts in the chatroom throughout the day if needed. Have a great weekend.

ES Morning Update January 10th 2019

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This small red showing in the premarket is the first sign of weakness in awhile. On a wave count I'd guess it's a tiny wave 4 down of a small C up from the 1/3 low of 2441, which the small A up started at the 2340 low on 12/24, and the ABC up is about to end soon... most likely today. Then another ABC wave series down should happen into next week I believe. Whether we make a lower low or higher low it still not known, but odds are for the higher low as that's where the FP is at on SPY.

With today being a 111 day (01/10/19 breaks down to 0+1=1, then 1+0=1, and 1+9=10, which again reduces to 1) we also have that additional clue that we'll top out on this rally by the close today. We don't usually get as many clues but with a FP on the SPY, some clean wave counting, and a ritual number code... plus negative divergence on the MACD's and hitting resistance from rising, falling and horizontal trendlines, we have more then enough evidence to take a trade with high odds of success.

Hopefully we can get a pierce of 2600 on the SPX, and 24,000 on the DOW at some point today. The Nasdaq already pierced 6600, it's "even number" area, so we just need the DOW and SPX to follow. Don't get me wrong, it's not required to happen for the short setup but it would be a nice addition. However, we do need the DOW at the minimum to close green today. This would give us the highest odds setup.

If it doesn't then the odds would just go down some, and that would be determined on how far down it closed red, and whether or not we pierced 24,000 intraday. It would be more of a "feel" kinda of thing but basically I'm thinking that if we pierced through the even number levels of 2600 SPX and 24,000 DOW and then quickly reversed to leave a topping tail and closed slightly red then odds should still be pretty good for the bears.

Why? Because that move would have likely been a "stop run" on the shorts to clear them out before the market rolls over. But if we trade sideways all day and dip into the red by the close I'd feel like we failed to make that tiny 5th wave up to end the small C wave up, and that all we did was carve out a bull flag "tiny wave 4 down" all day.

That would leave me guessing that the bulls might want to push it higher on Friday and even next Monday or Tuesday with some extended tiny 5th wave up. Doing it today instead would limit the distance the tiny wave 5 can go I think as the best I could see is slight pierces of those even numbers on the DOW and SPX.

Bottom line here... root for a green close today if you want to take a high odds short. That's with or without a pierce but some kind of push up intraday to justify a tiny wave 5 happened would be needed. Since the premarket is red right now that basically would be fulfilled anyway when closing green as we'd have to go up some just to make that happen. That's my two cents. Good luck everyone.

ES Morning Update January 9th 2019

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The market is looking very tired right now and the futures are trapped at a point of resistance. I'm still rooting for a gap fill by tomorrow from 12/13-12/14, which is the open 2 points between 2649.00-2651.00. That's my ideal shorting spot for the next move down. But we can't see any pullbacks prior to that where the market closes red. We need multiple green closes to continue today and tomorrow for this perfect setup to happen.

Any drop into a red close today can reset this perfect bearish setup and open the door for a lot more upside in the coming days. It's kinda like a game of football where a green close today will be the 3rd down and a green close tomorrow will be the 4th down. Touchdown would be a new all time high, and that's just not happening from this level on the 3rd down.

So the bears need to make sure they don't throw out some penalty (a red close) that gives the bulls another 4 downs to run the market up higher. Make them turn the ball over tomorrow with a green close on the 4th down and bears can run the market back down hard in the coming days.

The DOW is the main leader here and if the various ETF's are mixed between red and green at the end of the day it's the DOW that needs a green close the most. The SPX, Russell and Nasdaq could close red slightly and we should still be ok for the today being the 3rd down for the bulls. Now, as for that gap fill... it doesn't have to close. But if the bears want to take the market deeper in the coming days to weeks then they want it closed.

Having open gaps on the upside just begs for the bulls to return to that spot at sometime in the near future. Best to get it closed so it can be forgotten about and then the bears can just open another can of whipass on the bulls. But don't worry about the bulls as they will get their turn to return the beating on the bears with a nice summer rally.

For the short term though lets see if the bears can take back control this Friday. Their mission is (should they decide to accept it?) to let the market close green today and tomorrow. Can they resist the urge to attack? Only time will tell.

ES Morning Update January 8th 2019

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Yesterday after the bell there's a new (possible) FP that showed up on the SPY. It's pointing to 245.29, so once the market tops out today, tomorrow or Thursday I'd expect that to be its first stop on the way back down. Usually the market will go the opposite direction of any FP first (up in this case) and then once it has completed that move it will go to the FP.

And usually these intraday smaller FP's will be hit within a few days. The futures are currently up, which makes sense with my FP theory. I posted a chart in the chatroom yesterday showing a gap on the futures at 2649.00-2651.00, which is also on the SPY from 12/13 to 12/14 and shows a 9 cent gap.

The exact level is 262.59 to 262.50, so that should be filled at some point in the future. Of course it doesn't have to be filled on this first rally up from the low as we could drop back to that possible FP from yesterday first and rally back up later this month to fill both those gaps. That's actually a better plan for SkyNet to fool the most people in my opinion.

Others have zones of 260-262 on the SPY as their upside targets, and you know that when every good trader is on the same page it rarely works out. The falling trendline I drew (light purple) and the horizontal trendline (red), as well as a rising black trendline all point to a zone of resistance.

So while I'd love to see that gap filled overhead SkyNet might have other plans? The bottom line here is we are very likely within 1-2 days of a top and drop (to that new downside FP at least). I'm just playing what the market gives me and not counting on that old gap to be filled right now as it might not get hit until the summer for all I know? Good luck as always.

ES Morning Update January 7th 2019

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Charts are pretty mixed today and I don't see any clear direction. I do think we'll get a nice setup at some point this week that will give us a high odds short or long. I've drawn some trendline on the ES 60 minute charts and I'll be watching them to see how the market reacts when (if?) they get hit today or tomorrow. As far as wave counts it's still unclear if the bottom is in or not yet. We have a clear large A wave down from the Sept/Oct high in 2018 to the 10/29/2018 low.

Then a large B up into 11/8/2018 high. Next was the large C down that subdivided into 3 or 5 medium waves.. and that's the part which we don't know yet. If just 3 waves then the low is in, but if 5 waves then medium wave 1 down ended on 11/26, then up for medium wave 2 to end on 12/3, followed by medium wave 3 down into the current low on 12/26 and that puts us in medium wave 4 up with medium wave 5 down still to come.

This is all inside large wave C down which all 3 large waves (ABC) are part of extra large A down. If the low is in for the entire extra large A move down then we are starting the extra large B up that should take 5-6 months or more and top out at 2800+ I'd guess. Again, there's no way to know if we still have a medium wave 5 down of large wave C down of extra large A down... or if there was only 3 waves in large wave C down (which if so, they would have already been completed with the current low).

The important thing to focus on here is first... catch the top of this current wave up, no matter what it ends up being called, and then catch the bottom of it so we can go long. That bottom will either be a higher low or lower low, and that will determine the wave count. With negative divergence on this 60 minute chart I have to think a down move is near... like within a day or two. Lets see what happens.

ES Morning Update January 4th 2019

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Not much to add that wasn't said previously either in the morning post or in the free chatroom throughout the day. The bulls and bears are fighting it out in this zone and neither is winning yet. I looks like a series of wave 1's down and wave 2's up, which suggest the bears will win at some point soon (like next week some time) with some wave 3 of 3 down or something. But the sideways action "might" be viewed by others as a bull flag, so that's something to consider too.

The bottom line here as that one could make a case for the bulls just as easily as the bears. The monthly, weekly and daily charts are all still very bearish but the daily is still very oversold and trying to come up from that extreme low. The 60 minute chart became overbought on the MACD's a few days ago, which is likely why the market is struggling in this area. But the MACD's are still very oversold coming up from about -30 to just above -20 right now.

The Full Stochastic's have dropped from +80 to under +20 right now. They suggest a short term bounce (which we see in the futures this morning). My thoughts are that we need to see that Full Stochastic go back up to at least +70 and the MACD's to reach the -10 to -15 zone all while the Histogram stays positive but makes a low high to setup negative divergence.

This could take several more days I think but if that happens and the market doesn't breakout of the current sideways trading zone then the bears will have a perfect setup for another nasty drop. Time frame would be late next week for that to happen. If it did then I'd like to see a lower low in the price of the SPX but higher lows on the MACD's to setup positive divergence afterwards. Then I'd think the bottom would be in for awhile (several months) and the bulls could squeeze the bears into Spring/Summer for a lower high then the all time high last September.

The other scenario that might happen is that the bulls decide that they don't want to give the bears another lower low to setup that positive divergence and a multi-month rally, so they instead snort some crack to give them enough energy to ram it up hard the next few days into the 2550-2600 zone (a C wave up), which will of course exhaust them big time and cause worst damage later on when the bears take it back down even harder. This in my opinion would be very bearish as then I could see a multi-month down move... like into March or so before it bottoms.

If the bulls do this move (which would look like an ABC up from the lows) they are asking for more pain in the near future. They would be wise to continue to chop sideways another few days and let the bears take it down for a slightly lower low so positive divergence will form and then they can have a multi-month rally to have fun with. We should know in a few days which scenario is likely going to play out.

If we stay under the recent prior highs (around 2520-2525) then I'll be looking for that drop to start late next week to make a slightly lower low. It would then be called a 5th wave down (of a larger C wave down) and end the first larger ABC down from the all time high of 2940 SPX last September. Next would be a multi-month ABC up into Spring/Summer. I believe this is how it's going to play out but I won't know for sure until next week. Have a great weekend.

ES Morning Update January 3rd 2019

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So far so good for the bears at least. The market took the bearish path yesterday by not taking out last Fridays high and then selling off into the close but closing green. Then afterhours it dropped more and again did not take out the afterhours/premarket low from Monday to Tuesday. Now it's bouncing back up some in the premarket session from a deeper low earlier this morning.

This should be setting up another wave up and wave down, which again if it doesn't take out yesterdays high and closes green again today (preferred but not mandatory) then bears will have pulled off another perfect setup for a wave 3 of 3 (or 3 of C) down to start on Friday. I should know more by midday today but you are a bear you want to root for a green close but just barely, and ideally below the 2520 high yesterday on the SPX.

If you are a bull then you'll root for a down day that closes below the low yesterday as that could kill (or delay to reset it for some future date) the bearish setup forming right now. For example, a drop down to hit the falling trendline (pointing to just below 2400 right now) would be perfect for the bulls to rip it higher on Friday and into next week. But if the bears want to drop it hard they will be working on setting up a wave 3 of 3 down into Friday by closing it up today to get the wave 1's and wave 2's out of the way and all set up in perfect alignment so a big drop will follow. Good luck to both you bulls and bears out there.

ES Morning Update January 2nd 2019

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This coming Wednesday to Friday I expect another pullback to happen (so far, so good as the futures are down nicely this morning) but I don't see a lower low happening... not yet at least. Instead I'd guess that it will be a 50% retrace of the move up from the recent low. Call it a B wave down of some degree with the A up ending today or last Friday.

Then a choppy C wave up should begin and last for over a month I think. It should breakdown into 5 smaller waves of course and maybe subdivide even more? At some point though it will end (maybe up to 2750-2800 area?) and then we'll see another drop to take out the current lows. How far it goes is still unknown. But it's pretty clear to me that we've had a nice ABC down from the October 3rd, 2018 high to the low last week.

Each of those waves subdivided too of course. The thing unknown is whether we are going into a bear market recession or depression? If recession the move down expected in March or April from the 2750-2800 rally high will just take out the current low by a small about... like maybe 50-100 points.

If depression then we are going much lower, like down into the 1800's to 2000's zone for this spring/summer drop. From there another powerful rally would happen and then another powerful drop. In the end (2021?) we could retrace all the way back down to the March, 2009 lows (DOW 5,000 and SPX 600).

I really don't see that happening though as government will likely stop it will another round of Quantitative Easing and/or lower of interest rates. They already stopped the Christmas Crash when Secretary Steve Mnuchin conducted a series of phone calls with CEO’s of the largest U.S. Banks and the Presidents Working Group on Financial Markets (Plunge Protection Team) to take control of the stock markets and ensure a crash will not occur.

That happened on December 23rd and 24th... which clearly prevented the market from crashing as that was the path it was on. (https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-23/plunge-protector-mnuchin-reportedly-called-bank-ceos-calm-markets-ahead-monday-open) It's why we really never seen that huge "Capitulation" day in the volume. For today though it's looking good for that B wave down to make a higher low.

The C wave up MUST take out the recent A wave high last week or else the entire rally up from the lows last week will have just been one wave and not a 3 wave pattern (ABC). If that happens then I'd call that wave up a 4th wave and we'd then see a 5th wave down for a lower low... and that should happen this month if the rally is indeed just one wave instead of a 3 wave pattern.

It's really too early to know as we are just in the (possible) B wave down part this morning. On the next move up we'll have a better idea based on positive divergences setting up (or not?) on various time frames. But again, this next move up is where it's going to get tricky. So we'll just take it day by day. For this morning I suspect we'll see the low within the first hour or so of the day and then some bounce. Happy New Year everyone.

ES Morning Update December 31st 2018

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Today is the last day of 2018 and I'm not expecting much action in the market. A pin around the 2500 SPX area seems likely. The market will be close Tuesday of course for New Years Day. No point going into to much detail right now as again I don't expect much to happen.

On another note everyone in my free chatroom knows that that lost my beloved dog Suzy last week. She slipped a disc in her spine and it paralyzed her rear legs and body. I was up all night Christmas Day and so was she as the pain was horrible. The next day I took her the Vet and they said there was no way to cure her and I was forced to put her to sleep.

She was the smartest dog I'd ever seen.  She would go up on the hill side behind my house by herself and our other little dog Mickey (that we bought for Suzy to have a buddy to play with) would follow her up the hill. Then my two cats Simba and Sheba would also follow her as well. She literally would "walk the animals" herself without me! I've never seen anything like it in my life.

In the summertime I would take her and Mickey up the hill and both cats would follow too. But that was me walking them, not Suzy walking them without me. It's just been too muddy lately to go up the hill (for me at least), but Suzy missed those walks and would decide to do them without me.

She was incredible smart. I have 8 security cameras on the property and a monitor in the living room on the wall to the left of the big screen TV. Suzy would know the difference between what's on TV and what's on the monitor. She would lay on the couch and watch the monitor to see what's going on outside. Then if someone (usually a mail truck) would come onto the property she'd bark and leave the couch to go outside and meet them.

Micky doesn't have a clue what the monitor is or does, but he's still a puppy so maybe he'll learn? As most of you regulars know I lost my Dad back in March of 2016 and then my mother later that year in November. Suzy (my mothers middle name was Sue or Susan) was their dog first so losing her was like losing my mother all over again. She was less then 4 years old and should have lived to be 10-12... maybe 15? Needless to say I've had a very depressing Christmas. I can only think that my mother was missing Suzy in heaven and took her early to be with her up there. So this post is dedicated to Suzy. May she be happy again with my mother and dad.

ES Morning Update December 24th 2018

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Markets oversold everywhere and I'm expecting another big drop... aka, the crash wave. Yeah, it's crazy to even think that's possible during Christmas week but I'm still expecting it anyway. Today would be the most logical day to do it on as it's the day before Christmas and most traders will be gone. Plus the market closes early today at 1pm EST, so volume should be super light... but what if it's not? What if today is the day that we see that capitulation volume?

Last Friday at the end of the day I heard the closing bell ring twice through my Think or Swim account. It never rings twice. So was that a sign of a crash coming today like it was back on Black Monday, October 19th 1987 when the opening bell back then didn't ring at all? I believe it is a signal, and today would be the most likely day for another Black Monday. Everyone will be caught off guard due to the holiday tomorrow... which is a perfect time for them to pull the trigger I think.

Remember, all market debasements are planned by the elite that run the show. Nothing is random. While no one can guarantee something is going to happen on any given day I'll just say that the clues have been given for a crash this week and today seems to have the highest odds. If it doesn't happen today then great, I'll just look for lower prices in the coming days. Have a very Merry Christmas everyone, and may God bless you.

Christmas Crash Coming

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This coming Monday, December 24th 2018 get prepared for a stock market crash like 1987!

On Friday, December 21st I heard the closing bell ring twice with my TDameritrade account.  The day the stock market crashed in 1987 the bell never rang.  Of course repeating that pattern would be too obvious so ringing it twice the day before the crash is apparently the new way to signal the insiders.  Get ready Monday...

 

ES Morning Update December 21st 2018

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Markets look to open about flat this morning... not good if you are a bull as they really should have gaped up strongly if a true bottom was put in yesterday. To me it tells me that at some point we'll rollover and go lower again, just like yesterday. And since we have now had two closes in a row below the Jan/Feb low this next move down could triggers some algo's to hit the sell button. We'll know it from the pick up in volume.

Normally I'd think today would be a "pinning" day as there are four different types of assets expiring today... hence the reason they call it "Quad Witching" expiration. But I'm unsure on that happening this time around due to a lack of "capitulation" yesterday. Maybe the bulls hold their gound but if they lose yesterdays low at any time today we should go into a freefall and crash. Yeah, doesn't seem likely just a few days before Christmas so maybe it doesn't happen. Just keep your eyes on yesterdays low is all I have to say. Have a happy holidays.

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