I see no point in trying to forecast intraday, or even daily moves in this extremely manipulated stock market.  So, I'm going to focus on the weekly instead.  Let's look at the weekly chart below...

We are clearly forming a nice bear flag on it, as we have now completed 3 weeks of a down move, and 3 weeks of an up to sideways move.  Notice that last week was basically flat (down a little), putting in a bearish hammer candle.  If this bear flag plays out, then we should head down to the 104 spy double bottom area by the end of next week.

I suspect that the jobs numbers will be really bad this week, and will be blamed for the sell off coming.  But that doesn't come until later in the week.  So just remember, most Monday's are bullish, and I've rarely seen a big down day on Monday.  That doesn't mean it won't happen, only that it's not likely.  If Monday does push up a little more, then I think the target will be the 112.00-112.50 area, as it's provided great resistance in the past, and should continue to do so.

If that gets broken, then we are heading for a double top at 1115 spx.  I really don't see that happening with all the news out next week.  The bulls seem to be just about done now, as it's going to be extremely hard to push up very much further.  From the Monthly to Weekly charts putting huge downward pressure on the market, to the seasonality of March, and multiple turn dates coming up... it's not looking good for the bulls.

But... and this is a big butt, the bulls still have GOD on there side!  Yes, Goldman Sachs (aka God... at least in their sick minds) still has your money, and your children's money, and your children's children's money too use to buy up the worthless stocks in this doomed market.  (Personally, I thought God was a giving and caring person... not a THIEF!  That tells me they are doing the Devil's work... not God's).

Anyway, that simply means that NO about of Technical Analysis I do is going to be accurate with all the free money still manipulating the system.  If you have unlimited funds to keep the market up, then no about of selling will ever stick.  Anna seems to think that we won't get any significant downside until Obama pushes his worthless Heathcare system through.  That very well could be right?

Remember this... from the creation of the stock market, until the present, there has always been manipulation in the system.  However, the control that they have had, was limited by the amount of cash they had to work with.  When the PPT (Plunge Protection Team, created by Ronald Regan after the 1987 crash... which was originally designed to simply prevent further crashes, not manipulate the market) was created, the crooks seen that as an opportunity to have free funds from the government, instead of using just their own.

In the beginning, the amount of funding to the PPT was not nearly enough to fully control the market with the normal volume that occurs throughout the year.  But with light volume during holiday's and certain times of the year, the PPT soon discovered that they could fully control the market and push it in whichever direction they wanted.

Then along came March 6th, 2009... which forced Obama to turn the money flow on full blast, giving unlimited funds to the PPT (aka Goldman Sachs).  Their humble leader Lloyd Blankfein (aka GOD), does just what any good crook would do... buy up his own stock, almost tripling it in value over the next year.  Then, pay himself and other bankster pals huge bonuses with all the money that he had stolen from the unsuspecting American public.

What does all this mean?  Simple really... it means that you can't really use TA's anymore to forecast the possible direction with any kind of real accuracy.  I do believe that technical analysis still works on most individual stocks and some commodities... but not the overall market right now.

If it sounds like I'm bitching and complaining again... you're right, I am!  What good does it do to study charts, learn Elliottwave, Technical Analysis, Fibonacci Retracement levels, Astrology, Gann or Bradley turn dates, and any other forecasting method, if none of them work anymore.

I've always known that trading was very difficult, and not very easy to become successful at.  I've been through the "school of hard knocks", and I've put in my time in studying and learning the techniques that are available t0o be learned.  Obviously, the "real techniques" and secrets are buried inside Goldman Sachs, as I can't find anyone else who can figure out where this market is going next... can you?

Red

Bullish Monday again?  Yes, it's possible...  I know us bears can't seem to believe that the market could go higher, but it can.  When you look at the technicals, the ADX (advance/decline line) clearly shows that the bulls are still in control.  The adx line is now rolling over and starting to point down, just as the positive line is rising up, and crossing over the negative line.  What does that mean?

Simple... it means that the advancing move is losing momentum, but at the same time the positive di line is giving a bullishly cross over the negative di line.  This indicates that although the market itself is losing steam, the bears are too.  The di line (directional indicator) that is negative is the bears line.  When it rises the bears are starting to gaining power, but they also need the the adx line advance upwards too... showing that the momentum is also gaining power.

If you have one of the positive (green line) or negative (red line) di lines pointing up, then that line is in control.  So, if the positive line is above the negative line, then the market is in a bullish mode.  In the reverse, if the negative line is above the positive line, then the market is in a bearish mode.

Ok, now that seems simple enough, but where does the adx line come in?  The adx line simply shows the strength of whichever line is on top.  Any time the adx line starts to go down, then the market is losing power for the current trend.  Right now, we are seeing the adx line (black line) starting to point down, while the positive di line just crossed the negative di line.

So, even though the di lines had a bullish cross, that bullish move can't go too much further without the adx line rising up with it... giving the positive di line the strength it needs to rally up some more.  That leaves us in a sideways market until the adx line starts moving back up again, giving strength to whichever di line is point up at that time.

Hopefully that makes sense to you?  This means that the up move doesn't have much further to go next week, and that the down move can't happen until the adx line gains strength again by pointing up, at the same time the negative di line must also go up and crossover the positive line.

Just looking at the other indicators you would see how much the market is overbought.  But, it can remain overbought for much longer then you can believe it could.  It's the same thing on being oversold, as it could remain oversold longer then you might expect too.

It's all about how much strength (measured by the adx line) the market still has.  Once it loses strength, it doesn't have much further to go in that direction.  That why I'm expecting the market to be in a sideways mode next week, until the adx line cycles back down to the bottom and then gets ready for another momentum move... up or down?

This means I'm not expecting a big sell off on Monday, because there isn't as much momentum left (adx line) behind the move... in either direction.  Monday could pullback a little, or go up a little?  However, if adx line continues to roll back down, then I'd expect some profit taking by the middle of the week, but no big pullback.

A move down to the 1080-1085 level should be a good support level on any profit taking that should occur sometime this week.  This market will pullback, but it's not ready for the larger move down yet.  It appears that may not happen until the first week of March.  I still believe it's coming, because the monthly charts are clearly pointing down now.  They don't turn on a dime!  And, the weekly charts still putting in a bear flag.

The new larger trend is now down, but in the short term, we could chop around all next week, and really not go anywhere.  Here's a breakdown of where we are on each time frame...

• Monthly Charts - Down Trend
• Weekly Charts - Up Trend, but forming a Bear Flag
• Daily Charts - Up Trend, but almost topped out.  Very Over Extended
• 60 Minute Charts - Up Trend, but again... very over extended.
• 15 Minute Charts - Sideways Trend, and extremely over extended.

With each chart in different trends, you can now see why I think we will chop around next week.  What we are waiting for is for all the trends to line back up in the same direction, along with the adx line bottoming... and ready to rise upward, giving fresh momentum to the trend in control.

Clearly, the monthly chart has the most power, and it's pointing down.  We need to wait for the weekly chart to line back up and start pointing down too.  Then the daily, 60 minute, and 15 minute chart would be the last to all line up.  If you can be patient enough for this too happen, then you can ride a really nice long trend down.

In the meantime, we will just have to take it one day at a time.  Let's see what Monday brings first, and go from there.  If we start to pullback at any time during this week, we should remember that fake print of 107.38 spy that occurred last week.  It could be the place that the market will bounce from?  We'll just try to remember that for when some profit taking does finally happens.

On a side note... the market seems a little strange here lately, almost like it's fight between the good and bad forces that control the market.  Maybe Obama is really trying to be the good guy here, and keep the crooked banksters from dumping their shares and crashing the market?  It's hard too tell about him, as he's clearly been a puppet for the banksters since they put him in office last year.

Is he finally taking a stand and supporting the America people instead of the crooked banksters?  I doubt it... it's probably just a political move since he and the Democratic party is losing popularity every day now (and election time is coming up later this year too).  Sorry, I still don't trust him or support him.  He's just as worthless as Bush was.  Just a puppet on a string, that's pulled by the Rockefellers, Rothschilds, Vanderbilts, and all the other familys in the Illuminati that run this world.

What most people don't understand is that the United States of America isn't broke... it's the Federal Reserve that's broke!  And they are a PRIVATE entity (bank) that owns a Private Corporation called "The United States of America Corporation".  The Federal Reserve is run by crooked banksters that want to keep all of the profit that they've stolen from American's and push off all the debts and liabilities onto the country of Americia (aka... the taxpapers).  Does that sound fair too you?

If you like to listen to an audio by an insider named Benjamin Fulford by downloading this file (right click and save as).  If you would like to go to website, the link is here.  Scroll down the page to see Benjamin Fulford's link.  He also did some video's and they can be found here.

Many of this things haven't happened yet, which tells me that there is a fight between the good patriots of America and the crooked banksters.  Last weeks' weird action shows that something big is going to happen soon.  When is the big question?

Red

This has been a really tough week for me, as the expected next leg down didn't happen.  I'm now underwater pretty bad in my put spread that I purchased back on Friday the 5th.  I completely forgot a post I did a month ago, showing a fake print of 1047 on the spx, or I would have known we weren't going any lower yet.  Isn't it's funny how we pierced that level (1044) a little, and immediately bounced back up.  If that doesn't show you that the market is controlled and manipulated... I don't know what will.

Sundancer also caught that fake print and seems to agree with me that this is clearly the way wall street informs their buddies as to where they plan on taking the market to.  By the way, thanks a lot for all the great comments you post Sundancer.  I'm sure everyone will agree that you are very knowledgeable about the market, and have helped myself and many others that read this blog.  So, keep up the good work...

As for next week... it could go either way?  I really just don't know at this point.  I do agree with Sundancer that a gap up Tuesday is very likely... but where we go after that will probably depend on if they can hold that gap or not.  How many shorts are left in the market to squeeze?  I don't know?  If there is enough of them left, then it's very possible that they run the market to 110.34 spy before selling off again.

The news on Tuesday about the Greece bailout problem could be the reason to push it up or sell it?  It's seems that there aren't any bears willing to go short right now, for fear of being squeezed, and there also isn't any bulls willing to go heavily long either.  In fact, I suspect that most bulls are waiting for 110.34 to sell their long positions.  We are truly stuck in this rising wedge or channel, and no one is taking on any large risk right now.

That's why everyone is day trading, which produced the wild intraday swings that we had last week.  Neither side knows which direction this tape is going to go in.  It's great for day traders, but murder for swing traders.  I'm not going to post any charts this time as not much as changed from Thursday post, so you can look at those for reference.  I will tell you that The Chart Pattern Trader has 2 video's up, and should be watched to understand where we are, and what could happen next week.

Cobra's Blog is also excellent, and has some interesting statistics on his weekend post.  I'm certainly not too proud or self centered to try and keep you here on my blog only, and not tell you about other great chartists and blog writers.  I want everyone to succeed, and if I can't provide you with that information, I'll do my best to guide you to sites that I think are important to read.  I didn't create this blog to get a huge following, or generate traffic.  I only put it up to help others and for me to keep a record of my success, and failures.

I would be doing everyone a disservice by not informing you of others that I respect, and I won't do that too you as I wouldn't want it done too me.  I was clearly wrong on my call last week for the sell off, as it didn't happen.  Will it happen this week, and make my calls just too early?  Possible?  I don't know?  I do know that the news coming out about Greece this Tuesday will make a big impact on whether we continue higher to 110.34, or sell off one more time before a nice relief rally occurs.

I will definitely be on the lookout for another fake print as to see where they want to take the market next.  (Sundancer, please keep your eye's glued to your monitor too... just in case I miss it).  I do see us going down more in March, as I believe we will go down to that 900 area.  But, that's too far out now to worry about, as there will be many bounces along the way.

So, for Tuesday I'm expecting a gap up.  After that, it's up to the Greece news to determine the next move.  If it's not what wall street wants to hear, we could see some big selling.  Remember, that would put us in a wave 3 of wave 3 down, and it could fall pretty fast.  This is assuming that the wave count I posted on Thursday is accurate.  If it's not, then any move down would just be a wave 2, with and expected wave 3 back up to occur.

By the way, the current pain on the SPY is at 108.00, but that doesn't mean that's where they will close the tape on Friday (OPX).  It's been wrong many times in the past, so I don't hold to much weight to it anymore.

Best of luck to all of us, and keep up the great comments gang...

Red

Wall Street is Coming under attack!  Job losses, fake earnings, corporations defaulting on debt, bailout's for the rich, housing markets underwater... all spell a CRASH Coming!  After all, how else can you paid off your debt... just wipe them out instead..."That's How"!

If you think that this is just another 10% correction, and that it's now over... you're dead wrong!  It hasn't even started yet!  Want the evidence?  I'll direct you to the 3 charts below (found on Shanky's Charts... link on my Blogroll)...

Daily Chart

Weekly Chart

Monthly Chart

So, could Monday be a "Black Monday"?  I don't know?  But the rest of the week isn't looking good.  Wherever we peak on Monday (1070-1080... or maybe we already completed minor wave 2 up?), the selling to come after that will be huge.  It will be a minor wave 3 inside a larger wave 3... both inside Primary wave 3 (or C).  It's going to be scary from here on out.  At some point there will be "Panic Selling"... and I might not even want to make a daily post during those times?

Although I didn't create this bubble, I really don't want to be the center of an attention.  As a matter of fact, I never created this blog to gain a following... only to post my thoughts.  I don't use any type of marketing or even any other type of blog optimization technique's.  I really don't want any traffic to the site.  But apparently I have quite a few people reading it daily... that don't comment (which is fine).

I'm just looking to make enough money to retire on, and then relax and enjoy life a little.  So, if my daily posts become weekly posts... you'll know why.  (Not saying that I'll stop posting... only that I might take some time off at some point).

Moving on...

Here's what I see for next week... Monday should have the continuation of minor wave 2 up, inside of larger wave 3 down.  When that ends, probably by midday Monday (but it could go into Tuesday?), the minor wave 3 down inside of larger wave 3 down will start.  I think we will bounce on the 200dma (daily chart) around 1020, and come back up for minor wave 4 (still inside larger wave 3 down), and have another push down later in the week for minor wave 5 down (possible target... the 50ma on the weekly charts, about 980).

Remember, the 1000 level is important to the bulls, and a break of it would have the bears jumping on the short side faster then you can blink an eye!  Then once all the bulls have sold out and the bears are on the short side... Bam!  ...here come the buy programs to rally us back up for Larger Wave 4!  How high?  I don't know?  But, it will probably be in line with option expiration on the 19th.

That's what I'd do if I were them

Red

P.S.  Keep in mind folks... nothing is written in stone.  This is only a forecast of the possible moves coming.  If the government comes into the market again, with a "Stimulus Package Number Two"... it all changes.  But for now, I believe they won't do that.  Not until the banks get done unloading their shares (a few months?).  Then they will come to the rescue again.

"Lather, Rinse... and Repeat"