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Apollo Education Group, Owner of University of Phoenix, to Be Taken Private

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A University of Phoenix campus in Philadelphia in 2004.

The troubled for-profit education company that owns the giant University of Phoenix agreed on Monday to be bought for $1.1 billion by a group of investors that includes a private equity firm with close ties to the Obama administration.

The university and its owner, the Apollo Education Group, have been subject to a series of state and federal investigations into allegations of shady recruiting, deceptive advertising and questionable financial aid practices.

In recent years, many for-profit educational institutions that have received billions of dollars in federal aid, including the University of Phoenix, have been pummeled by criticisms that they preyed upon veterans and low-income students, saddling them with outsize student loan debt and subpar instruction.

Moreover, at many of these schools, enrollment has been falling and profits shrinking, casting doubt on the future health of the industry.

The new owners, who said they are not relying on debt to pay for the acquisition, are promising to lead a clean-up of the for-profit education industry.

Vistria’s founder is Marty Nesbitt, one of President Obama’s closest friends and the chairman of the Obama Foundation. Mr. Nesbitt is also a longtime business partner of Penny Pritzker, the commerce secretary.

A Vistria partner and its chief operating officer, Tony Miller, was deputy secretary of the United States Department of Education between 2009 and 2013. He has been tapped to become the new chairman of Apollo Education Group in August, when the deal is scheduled to be completed.

The acquisition is subject to approval by both the Education Department and the accreditation group the Higher Learning Commission.

“For too long and too often, the private education industry has been characterized by inadequate student outcomes, overly aggressive marketing practices and poor compliance,” Mr. Miller said in a news release. “This doesn’t need to be the case.”

He said the University of Phoenix would operate “in a manner consistent with the highest ethical standards.”

But longtime critics of the for-profit education industry said that the new owners would find it difficult to balance the pursuit of such a high-minded approach with the challenge of reviving high profits for investors.

Barmak Nassirian, director of federal policy analysis at the American Association of State Colleges and Universities, argued that the premium of roughly 30 percent that investors paid over the previous month’s weighted stock average would not seem to be justified by the company’s recent record of anemic earnings and worsening forecasts.

The company in January reported an operating loss for its most recent quarter of $45.2 million, compared to operating income of $64.2 million for the same quarter a year earlier. Excluding special items, income from continuing operations in the most recent quarter was $31.3 million, slipping from $49.9 million a year earlier.

The university has also had to contend with a shrinking number of campuses, layoffs and tumbling enrollment.

In Mr. Nassirian’s view, putting the company “back on steroids” would require the kind of “overpromising and under-delivering” that got the educational company in trouble in the first place. “I don’t know what kind of cold fusion in the kitchen sink they think they can pull off,” he said.

Under the terms of the agreement, the investor consortium would pay $9.50 a share in cash for the outstanding shares of the Apollo Education Group. Its shares closed at $6.95 on Friday.

As of Friday’s close, Apollo Education stock was down 73 percent in the last 12 months. Its market value on Friday was a little more than $700 million. A decade ago, its shares were worth as much as $80 each.

Apollo Education’s stock soared 24 percent to $8.62 at the close of regular trading Monday. Apollo Global fell 4.9 percent to $12.94.

With the publicly traded company going private in an all-cash deal, details on the company’s operations — and challenges — will be much harder to come by.

“The sale of Apollo Education Group under the terms reported today means that the largest for-profit college chain in America is essentially going dark,” Senator Richard Durbin, a Democrat of Illinois, said. “We’ll know less than ever about the operations of one of the most heavily subsidized universities in America.”

Previous reports with the S.E.C. have noted that the Federal Trade Commission is looking into whether the Apollo Education Group engaged in deceptive advertising, while the California attorney general’s office is undertaking a broad investigation, with particular reference to its dealings with members of the United States military and the California National Guard.

A Defense Department ban, prohibiting the company from recruiting on its military bases or gaining access to additional federal tuition assistance, was lifted last month. But the company will be under heightened scrutiny by the Pentagon for another year.

The University of Phoenix and the rest of the industry also will be subject to new federal regulations aimed at cracking down on abusive practices.

Acknowledging “unprecedented volatility within our industry,” Greg Cappelli, the Apollo Education Group’s chief executive, said the new structure offers the company the “flexibility and runway it needs to complete the transformational plan at University of Phoenix.”

The deal represents the end of the company’s control by the family of John G. Sperling, who founded the company in 1973 and oversaw its jaw-dropping growth. He died in 2014. His son, Peter Sperling, who is currently chairman, will be replaced by Mr. Miller.


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Yelp Earnings Out, CFO Steps Down

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Yelp just released its financials for Q4 and full year 2015 with revenue of 153.7 million (up 40% year-over-year) for the quarter.

Cumulative reviews grew 34% to approximately 95 million. Local advertising accounts grew 32% to approximately 111,000.

CEO Jeremy Stoppelman said, “We are pleased with the progress we made on the key initiatives we set at the beginning of 2015. We have evolved to a mobile-centric company and have successfully completed our transition to a performance-based advertising business. In 2016, our priorities are to continue to build our core local advertising business, further increase engagement and awareness and grow transactions. With our rich, relevant review content and highly engaged consumer traffic, we are well-positioned to capture the enormous opportunity ahead of us.”

The company also announced that CFO Rob Krolik is stepping down.

“Rob has played a crucial role in Yelp’s successful transition from startup to public company, bringing his professionalism and experience to bear in setting Yelp on a firm financial foundation and headed in the right direction,” said Stoppelman. “I am grateful for his counsel, his leadership and work on our public offerings and five acquisitions, and his efforts in opening facilities around the world to accommodate our more than 4,000 employees. I will miss his passion for Yelp and wish him continued success in his next endeavor.”

“I am a strong believer in the power of Yelp to help consumers and local businesses alike, which is why it has been such a tremendous opportunity and privilege to serve as CFO,” said Krolik. “It’s been a rewarding experience taking Yelp public, diversifying our offerings through acquisitions, and seeing our team deliver significant and consistent revenue growth year after year. After almost five years with Yelp, I am ready to take some time off to spend more time with family, but expect us to seamlessly transition to a new chief financial officer in the meantime.”

Here’s the release in its entirety:

SAN FRANCISCO, Feb. 8, 2016 /PRNewswire/ — Yelp Inc. (NYSE: YELP), the company that connects consumers with great local businesses, today announced financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2015.

Yelp logo. (PRNewsFoto)
  • Net revenue was $153.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2015, reflecting 40% growth over the fourth quarter of 2014.
  • Cash flow from operations was $3.8 million in the fourth quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2015 was $17.5 million.
  • Cumulative reviews grew 34% year over year to approximately 95 million.
  • App Unique Devices grew 38% year over year to approximately 20 million on a monthly average basis1.
  • Local advertising accounts grew 32% year over year to approximately 111,000.

Net loss in the fourth quarter of 2015 was ($22.2) million, or ($0.29) per share, compared to net income of $32.7 million, or $0.42 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2014. Net loss for the fourth quarter of 2015 included an income tax expense of $20.3 million due to the recording of a valuation allowance against our deferred tax assets. Non-GAAP net income, which consists of net income excluding stock-based compensation, amortization and valuation allowance and release, was $9.0 million for the fourth quarter, or $0.11 per share, compared to $14.5 million, or $0.19 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2014.

Net revenue for the full year ended December 31, 2015 was $549.7 million, an increase of 46% compared to $377.5 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2015 was $69.1 million compared to $70.9 million for the prior year. Net loss for the full year ended December 31, 2015 was ($32.9) million, or ($0.44) per share, compared to a net income of $36.5 million, or $0.48 per share, in 2014. Non-GAAP net income for the full year ended December 31, 2015 was $28.9 million, or $0.37 per share, compared to $36.3 million, or $0.47 per share in 2014.

“We are pleased with the progress we made on the key initiatives we set at the beginning of 2015,” said Jeremy Stoppelman, Yelp’s co-founder and chief executive officer. “We have evolved to a mobile-centric company and have successfully completed our transition to a performance-based advertising business. In 2016, our priorities are to continue to build our core local advertising business, further increase engagement and awareness and grow transactions. With our rich, relevant review content and highly engaged consumer traffic, we are well-positioned to capture the enormous opportunity ahead of us.”

“We delivered strong topline growth of 46% year over year as we surpassed half a billion dollars of revenue in 2015,” added Rob Krolik, Yelp’s chief financial officer.

Fourth Quarter Operating Summary

  • Local advertising revenue totaled $125.9 million, representing 35% growth compared to the fourth quarter of 2014.
  • Transactions revenue totaled $14.0 million, compared to $1.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2014, primarily due to the acquisition of Eat24 in the first quarter of 2015.
  • Brand advertising revenue totaled $7.1 million, representing an 18% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. Yelp has completed the phase out of its brand advertising product and will have no Brand advertising revenue in 2016.
  • Other revenue totaled $6.8 million which was flat compared to the fourth quarter of 2014.

Business Highlights

  • App engagement: Approximately 20 million unique devices accessed Yelp via the mobile app on a monthly average basis in the fourth quarter of 2015, an increase of 38% compared to the same period in 2014. In the fourth quarter of 2015, Yelp app users were more than 10 times as engaged as website users based on number of pages viewed.
  • Performance-based advertising: In 2015, Yelp completed its transition to a performance-based advertising business. As of the fourth quarter of 2015, 61% of local advertising revenue came from CPC advertisers, compared to 32% in the fourth quarter of 2014.
  • Eat24 & SeatMe: In 2015, Yelp acquired leading web and app-based online food ordering service Eat24. In the fourth quarter, Eat24 revenue growth accelerated, with revenue up approximately 80% compared to the fourth quarter of 2014. In the fourth quarter of 2015, over 15 million diners were seated through SeatMe, an increase of approximately 120% over the fourth quarter of 2014.

CFO Transition

The company announced that chief financial officer Rob Krolik will be stepping down and departing the company in the coming months. Krolik, who joined the company in 2011, will continue as chief financial officer until the earlier of the date a replacement is hired and December 15, 2016, and will assist in the search and transition. The company intends to immediately begin a search for a new chief financial officer.

“Rob has played a crucial role in Yelp’s successful transition from startup to public company, bringing his professionalism and experience to bear in setting Yelp on a firm financial foundation and headed in the right direction,” said Jeremy Stoppelman. “I am grateful for his counsel, his leadership and work on our public offerings and five acquisitions, and his efforts in opening facilities around the world to accommodate our more than 4,000 employees. I will miss his passion for Yelp and wish him continued success in his next endeavor.”

“I am a strong believer in the power of Yelp to help consumers and local businesses alike, which is why it has been such a tremendous opportunity and privilege to serve as CFO,” said Krolik. “It’s been a rewarding experience taking Yelp public, diversifying our offerings through acquisitions, and seeing our team deliver significant and consistent revenue growth year after year. After almost five years with Yelp, I am ready to take some time off to spend more time with family, but expect us to seamlessly transition to a new chief financial officer in the meantime.”

Business Outlook

As of today, Yelp is providing its outlook for the first quarter and full year of 2016.

  • For the first quarter of 2016, net revenue is expected to be in the range of $154 million to $157 million, representing growth of approximately 31% compared to the first quarter of 2015 at the the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $10 million to $12 million. Stock-based compensation is expected to be in the range of $19 million to $21 million, and depreciation and amortization is expected to be approximately 5% of revenue.
  • For the full year of 2016, net revenue is expected to be in the range of $685 million to $700 million, representing growth of approximately 26% compared to full year 2015 at the midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $90 million to $105 million. Stock-based compensation is expected to be in the range of $83 million to $87 million, and depreciation and amortization is expected to be approximately 5% of revenue.

Quarterly Conference Call

To access the call, please dial 1 (866) 776-8879, or outside the U.S. 1 (440) 996-5670, with Passcode 29597481, at least five minutes prior to the 1:30 p.m. PT start time.  A live webcast of the call will also be available at http://www.yelp-ir.com under the Events & Presentations menu.  An audio replay will be available between 4:00 p.m. PT February 8, 2016 and 11:59 p.m. PT February 15, 2016 by calling 1 (855) 859-2056 or 1 (800) 585-8367, with Passcode 29597481.  The replay will also be available on the Company’s website at http://www.yelp-ir.com.

About Yelp

Yelp Inc. (http://www.yelp.com) connects people with great local businesses. Yelp was founded in San Franciscoin July 2004. Since then, Yelp communities have taken hold in major metros across more than 30 countries. Approximately 20 million unique devices1 accessed Yelp via the Yelp app, approximately 75 million unique visitors visited Yelp via desktop computer2 and approximately 66 million unique visitors visited Yelp via mobile website3 on a monthly average basis during the fourth quarter of 2015. By the end of the same quarter, Yelpers had written approximately 95 million rich, local reviews, making Yelp the leading local guide for real word-of-mouth on everything from boutiques and mechanics to restaurants and dentists.

1 Calculated as the number of unique devices accessing the app on a monthly average basis over a given three-month period, according to internal Yelp logs.

2 Calculated as the number of “users,” as measured by Google Analytics, accessing Yelp via desktop computer on an average monthly basis over a given three-month period.

3 Calculated as the number of “users,” as measured by Google Analytics, accessing Yelp via mobile website on a monthly average basis over a given three-month period.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

This press release includes information relating to adjusted EBITDA, non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP net income per share, each of which the Securities and Exchange Commission has defined as a “non-GAAP financial measure.” Adjusted EBITDA, non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP net income per share have been included in this press release because they are key measures used by Yelp management and board of directors to understand and evaluate core operating performance and trends, to prepare and approve its annual budget and to develop short- and long-term operational plans. The presentation of this financial information, which is not prepared under any comprehensive set of accounting rules or principles, is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information prepared and presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (“GAAP”).

Adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP net income have limitations as analytical tools, and you should not consider them in isolation or as substitutes for analysis of Yelp’s financial results as reported under GAAP. Some of these limitations are:

  • although depreciation and amortization are non-cash charges, the assets being depreciated and amortized may have to be replaced in the future, and adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP net income do not reflect cash capital expenditure requirements for such replacements or for new capital expenditure requirements;
  • adjusted EBITDA does not reflect changes in, or cash requirements for, Yelp’s working capital needs;
  • adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP net income do not consider the potentially dilutive impact of equity-based compensation;
  • non-GAAP net income does not reflect the impact of the valuation allowance release in the fourth quarter of 2014 or the recording of the valuation allowance in the fourth quarter of 2015;
  • adjusted EBITDA does not reflect tax payments that may represent a reduction in cash available to Yelp; and
  • other companies, including those in Yelp’s industry, may calculate adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP net income differently, which reduces their usefulness as comparative measures.

Because of these limitations, you should consider adjusted EBITDA, non-GAAP net income and non-GAAP net income per share alongside other financial performance measures, including various cash flow metrics, net income (loss) and Yelp’s other GAAP results. Additionally, Yelp has not reconciled its adjusted EBITDA outlook for the first quarter and full year 2016 to its net income (loss) outlook because it does not provide an outlook for other income (expense) and provision for income taxes, which are reconciling items between net income (loss) and adjusted EBITDA. As items that impact net income (loss) are out of Yelp’s control and cannot be reasonably predicted, Yelp is unable to provide such an outlook. Accordingly, reconciliation to net income (loss) outlook for the first quarter and full year 2016 is not available without unreasonable effort. For a reconciliation of historical non-GAAP financial measures to the nearest comparable GAAP measures, see the non-GAAP reconciliations included below in this press release.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements relating to, among other things, the future performance of Yelp and its consolidated subsidiaries that are based on Yelp’s current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding expected financial results for the first quarter and full year 2016, Yelp’s priorities for 2016 and its ability to execute against those priorities, CFO transition and timing thereof, Yelp’s ability to improve its margins, Yelp’s ability to capture a meaningful share of the large local market, the future growth in Yelp revenue and continued investing by Yelp in its future growth, Yelp’s ability to drive daily usage and engagement (particularly on mobile), increase awareness of Yelp among consumers, and deliver value to local businesses, Yelp’s ability to increase transactions completed on its platform, Yelp’s ability to take advantage of trends toward app usage and native advertising and to become the leading destination for consumers connecting with great local businesses. Yelp’s actual results could differ materially from those predicted or implied and reported results should not be considered as an indication of future performance. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to: Yelp’s limited operating history in an evolving industry; Yelp’s ability to generate sufficient revenue to regain profitability, particularly in light of its significant ongoing sales and marketing expenses; Yelp’s ability to successfully manage acquisitions of new businesses, solutions or technologies, such as Eat24, and to integrate those businesses, solutions or technologies; Yelp’s reliance on traffic to its website from search engines like Google and Bing; Yelp’s ability to generate and maintain sufficient high quality content from its users; maintaining a strong brand and managing negative publicity that may arise; maintaining and expanding Yelp’s base of advertisers; changes in political, business and economic conditions, including any European or general economic downturn or crisis and any conditions that affect ecommerce growth; fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; Yelp’s  ability to deal with the increasingly competitive local search environment; Yelp’s need and ability to manage other regulatory, tax and litigation risks as its services are offered in more jurisdictions and applicable laws become more restrictive; the competitive and regulatory environment while Yelp continues to expand geographically and introduce new products and as new laws and regulations related to Internet companies come into effect; Yelp’s ability to timely upgrade and develop its systems, infrastructure and customer service capabilities. The forward-looking statements in this release do not include the potential impact of any acquisitions or divestitures that may be announced and/or completed after the date hereof.

More information about factors that could affect Yelp’s operating results is included under the captions “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in Yelp’s most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K or Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q at http://www.yelp-ir.com or theSEC’s website at www.sec.gov. Undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking statements in this release, which are based on information available to Yelp on the date hereof. Yelp assumes no obligation to update such statements.

Investor Relations Contact Information
Wendy Lim, Ronald Clark, Allie Dalglish
(415) 635-2412
ir@yelp.com

Media Contact Information
Shannon Eis
(415) 635-2478
seis@yelp.com
SOURCE Yelp Inc.

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ES Morning Update February 9th 2016

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11041786-2e8a-4b55-9ea0-d508ca578ca1Falling trendline is strong resistance should the market turn back up today.

The line in the sand for the bulls to hold is this rising trendline.

MACD's on the this 2 hour chart still have room to go on the upside but the 6 hour chart has yet to turn back up.

Looking at the various time frame the market could be making a "higher low" today and then reverse back later in the day (it is "Turn-around Tuesday").  But this could also be a wave 4 up with the market completing its' wave 3 down at yesterdays' low.  This suggests a final wave 5 down to possibly the 1780 SPX area of support to complete the pattern from the 1940 area high.

It's too early to know which pattern will play out yet.  It's really about that rising support line... break it and it's likely a wave 5 down we are in.  Hold it and it's likely some kind of B wave down with the A up from the low yesterday into the close.  If this is the case then there should be a C up into a likely top "no later" then this Thursday.

This week is the week prior to the monthly option expiration week, which is always the 3rd week of every month.  It's common to put in a low on the Thurs/Fri of the week prior to that expiration... which is this week.  So, a low of some kind is expected by the end of this week... the question is, will it be a "higher low" or "lower low" then yesterday?

Yesterday we only hit a low of 1828 on the SPX and the next level of support below that was 1818 area, which is a double bottom basically (actual prior low was 1812).  That level would be the next level down should the rising support line break (and since it's so close to a double bottom from yesterday we'll lump that whole range in as the 1st level of support).  The 3rd level of support is the 1780 SPX area... 4th level 1730 area.

This early morning session should really be hard to figure out as the market will likely dance around the first support zone for quite awhile to tease both bulls and bears until it decides on the next move.  Unfortunately, I don't know what the plan is?  Odds are still good for that Thurs/Fri low and next week is usually bullish.  But right now, the bears have the bulls by the horns and they don't want to let go.

Giant Royal Caribbean ship damaged in ‘extreme’ storm

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A Royal Caribbean cruise ship with nearly 5,000 passengers is headed to Port Canaveral today after hurricane-force winds and waves battered the vessel off the South Carolina Coast.

One of the world's newest and biggest cruise ships on Sunday was caught in a storm so powerful that the captain ordered passengers confined to their cabins for safety.

Royal Caribbean's 168,666-ton Anthem of the Seas experienced "extreme wind and sea conditions" that were not expected as it was sailing south from the New York area to Port Canaveral, Fla., according to a Royal Caribbean statement sent to USA TODAY.

Four passengers were injured during the event, though none seriously, according to spokeswoman Cynthia Martinez. The ship is returning to Bayonne, N.J., its home port, and the remainder of the voyage is being cancelled.

Passengers tweeting from Anthem describe hurricane-force winds and giant waves that rocked the vessel wildly, overturning furniture, smashing glassware and collapsing part of a ceiling in a public corridor. Photos posted by passengers show damage in several areas.

"I'm not going to lie: It was truly terrifying," said Robert Huschka, executive editor of the Detroit Free Press, part of the USA TODAY Network. Huschka is on board the ship with his family.

"A very nervous cruise director kept coming on. He didn't sound very reassuring. He said, 'We are okay,'" Huschka said.

Huschka said the captain of the vessel made an announcement at about 3:30 PM on Sunday as the storm raged that passengers should remain in their cabins, saying the strength of the storm had surprised everyone and that the ship would hold position and try to turn into it. The captain then was unavailable for announcements as the storm continued into the evening.

The situation began to improve late in the evening, and by 1:00 AM on Monday the ship had resumed sailing.

"The captain told everyone this morning that the day was among his most challenging -- if not his most challenging -- at sea," Huschka said.

A buoy in the Atlantic about 260 miles south of Cape Hatteras reported wave heights of 30 feet and wind gusts of 74 mph late Sunday, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A screen shot of the wind gauge on Anthem cabin TVs posted by a passenger on Twitter shows wind speeds as high as 106 knots, the equivalent of 122 miles per hour.

A passenger posting on a message board at CruiseCritic.com reported waves crashing as high as the Deck 5 promenade, with water seeping into the ship through the doorways before watertight doors were closed. Another passenger posting at CruiseCritic.com said a large white structure broke off the top of the vessel and landed in a pool.

Still, Huschka said most of the damage to the ship appeared superficial, with "lots of broken glass, especially on the pool deck."  Water came in through some balcony doors and now is being mopped up or dried with blowers, he added.

One thing that was unaffected by the storm: The TV signal bringing in the Super Bowl on Sunday evening.  It was "perfect picture during the height of the storm," Huschka said. "That certainly improved my mood."

The center's first alert was issued on Friday at 1:00 p.m. for "developing hurricane-force winds" for Sunday, according to NOAA spokeswoman Susan Buchanan.Royal Caribbean said in its statement that the wind speeds that Anthem experienced on Sunday were "higher than what was forecasted" for the area. But federal forecasters from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center had warned of a strong storm in the Atlantic for four days before Sunday.

The first official warning product was included in the offshore waters forecast at 3:34 p.m. on Saturday, Buchanan said. It included a warning for hurricane-force winds increasing to 63-75 mph, in effect through Sunday night.

In a second statement on Monday, Royal Caribbean said the decision to return to the New York area was made due to forecasts of poor weather over the next few days that is likely to impact the ship’s original itinerary.

"We are also sensitive to the fact that our guests have already been through an uncomfortable ride," the statement said. "Returning to Cape Liberty minimizes the risks of further bad weather affecting our guests’ voyage; we are optimistic that they will have a smooth sail home."

Royal Caribbean said passengers will receive full refunds of the fare they paid for the cruise and a credit for a future cruise equal to 50% of the fare.

"We know it was tough day on Sunday and apologize for (passenger) discomfort," the line said. "Safety is our highest priority and ships are designed to withstand even more extreme circumstances than Anthem of the Seas encountered. While the weather was unpleasant, the ship remained seaworthy at all times."

Anthem is carrying 4,529 passengers and 1,616 crew, according to a spokeswoman. It's on a seven-night voyage from its home base in the New York area to Florida and the Bahamas that began on Saturday.

Christened in April 2015, Anthem is tied with sister vessel Quantum of the Seas as the third largest cruise ship ever built.

USA TODAY Cruise was among a handful of U.S. media outlets to get early access to Anthem before its christening in Southampton, England. For our deck-by-deck tour of the vessel's interior areas and cabins, scroll through the carousels below.

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University of Phoenix parent company to go private

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Apollo Education Group, the publicly-traded owner of the University of Phoenix, has agreed to be taken private by a group of investors in a $1.1. billion deal.

The agreement arrives weeks after the company reported a decline in revenue and another round of layoffs at the for-profit college. Phoenix, like other for-profit schools, has been battered by poor enrollment, government investigations and heightened federal regulation.

In a statement, Apollo chief Greg Cappelli said the takeover will give his team “the flexibility and runway it needs to complete the transformational plan at University of Phoenix, which will enable us to serve our students more effectively during a period of unprecedented volatility within our industry.”

The consortium of investors, including the Vistria Group, funds affiliated with Apollo Group Management and Najafi Cos., are offering $9.50 a share in cash for the outstanding shares of the company. That represents a 44 percent premiums over Apollo’s closing price on Jan. 8, when the board of directors said it was considering its options.

The deal, which is subject to shareholder approval, has been blessed by Apollo’s board. It must also get a thumbs-up from the Department of Education and the Higher Learning Commission, an accreditation group. Apollo expects the deal to close by the end of its fiscal year in August. Once the transaction is completed, Tony Miller, chief operating officer of Vistria, will become chairman of the Apollo board.

“For too long and too often, the private education industry has been characterized by inadequate student outcomes, overly aggressive marketing practices and poor compliance. This doesn’t need to be the case,” said Miller, who served as deputy secretary at the Department of Education from 2009 to 2013.

He added: “We are committed to accelerating and enhancing efforts to establish University of Phoenix as the leading provider of quality higher education for working adults and to continue supporting the organization’s commitment to operating in a manner consistent with the highest ethical standards.”

One of the world’s largest private education companies, Apollo got its start in 1973. The company, based in Phoenix, runs schools that provide undergraduate, graduate and career training throughout the United States, Asia, Africa, Australia, Europe and Latin America.

Profits at Apollo have continued to slide over the last few years, with the company posting an operating loss of $61 million in the quarter ending Nov. 30. Sluggish enrollment at the University of Phoenix has put a damper on revenue. Average enrollment in degree programs tumbled 20 percent to 183,800 during that same quarter.

The university has been at the center of several state and federal investigations into its recruitment and marketing practices. Late last year, the Defense Department suspended the school from recruiting on military bases and accessing federal education funding for allegedly violating an executive order preventing for-profit colleges from gaining preferential access to the military.

Earlier this month, the DOD lifted the ban but said it would continue to monitor the school, the largest recipient of federal student aid for veterans, taking in nearly $1.2 billion in GI Bill benefits since 2009. Phoenix is still under investigation by the Federal Trade Commission for deceptive advertising and marketing. The regulator requested information about the school’s military recruitment, enrollment and student retention, among other things.

Apollo is not the first company to go private in an attempt to save a flagging business. Education Management Corp. (EDMC), which operates the Art Institutes, Argosy University, Brown Mackie College and South University, went private in 2006, using the flush of new capital to grow its online business. The move, however, was not enough to shield the school from a downturn in business. And it went public again in 2009.

“As we’ve seen in the past with EDMC, taking one of these companies private doesn’t always result in better results down the line,” said Ben Miller, senior director for postsecondary education at the Center for American Progress. “On the positive side, [Apollo] going private should mean less pressure for quarterly targets that could have led to bad behavior like pursuing students at all costs. On the downside, it means a lot less transparency.”

Danielle Douglas-Gabriel covers the economics of education, writing about the financial lives of students from when they take out student debt through their experiences in the job market. Before that, she wrote about the banking industry.

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Is that Quicken Loans Super Bowl ad an omen of another housing crash?

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“Here’s what we were thinking: what if we did for mortgages what the Internet did for buying music, and plane tickets and shoes?"

Quicken Loans asked in their 60-second Super Bowl ad Sunday, where the company advertised their new online tool Rocket Mortgage.

Using Rocket Mortgage, future homebuyers can get a mortgage on their phones, according to the ad. And more homebuyers are good for America, the ad suggests, because they encourage patriotic consumption with more people buying more stuff like couches, blenders and lamps.

“What we’re saying is that a strong housing market filled with responsible homeowners is important to the economy,” Quicken Loan’s chief executive Bill Emerson tells The Wall Street Journal.

While some criticized the ad’s promotion of unabated consumerism, most took issue with the way it evokes the environment leading up to the 2007-2009 subprime mortgage crisis, especially punctuated by the ending tagline: “Push Button, Get Mortgage.” That crisis led directly to a global financial crisis, and then to the Great Recession.

Financial experts and pundits alike took to Twitter:

The same global meltdown that was interpreted in a recent film.

Based on the 2010 book by Michael Lewis, "The Big Short" explains in detail what happened in the housing market that led to the 2008 financial crisis. Some have described it as the first film to explain the financial concepts and shortcomings of the housing market to a mainstream audience. Director Adam McKay uses celebrities like Margot Robbie and Selena Gomez to explain confusing investment lingo to viewers.

While the movie is both educational and entertaining, it speaks to the fears and financial failures of American homeowners.

“For those who vividly remember the crisis, the movie can be stressful at times, showing all the points at which safety mechanisms failed to kick in,” Atlantic writers Bourree Lam and Gillian B. White explained. “For those who don’t remember or weren’t paying close attention, it’s a good primer on how the recession started. For both groups, it’s worth watching.”

For some, the Quicken Loans' Super Bowl ad was a harbinger. CNET’s Chris Matyszczyk’s says Quicken Loans’ ad is so strongly reminiscent of pre-2008 behavior that it might “send a shiver down your spine.”

Quicken company officials say the app advertised facilitates the loan application process, but it does not encourage irresponsible lending.

“I don’t see any harm in those who qualify getting a mortgage more easily,” Quicken Loans President and Chief Marketing Officer Jay Farner tells CNET. “We think the American dream is an important thing. And our research tells us it’s an important thing. All we’re trying to say is, That’s good.”

Quicken isn’t going back to pre-2008 lending, Mr. Emerson tells The Wall Street Journal, because “those programs don’t exist anymore.”

Instead, his company is trying to engage the qualified homeowners who “don’t want to get engaged because they’re afraid of the process” says Emerson. “If we could give them an opportunity to interact with technology, understand the operation, maybe we could get some of these folks who qualify off the sidelines.”

Quicken’s track record should also be noted. The company avoided most subprime products around the turn of the century, making it one of the only large nonbank lenders to make it out of the 2008 crisis alive.

In fact, says Mr. Farner, the convenient new Rocket Mortgage app could actually help raise buyers' education levels.

“I think that everyone is realizing it’s time for the housing industry to advance,” Farner tells CNN, “in our mind that is about transparency.” 

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University of Phoenix owner to be sold amid shrinking enrollment

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PNI

The owner of the for-profit University of Phoenix will go private in a sale to a group of investors amid shrinking enrollment and revenue.

A group of investors — including The Vistria Group, Apollo Global Management affiliates and Najafi Companies — agreed to acquire the publicly traded Apollo Education Group (APOL) in a $1.1 billion deal.

Apollo Education will become a privately run company in a deal expected to close in August, pending regulatory approvals.

Former U.S. Department of Education Deputy Secretary Tony Miller, who is now partner and chief operating officer of The Vistria Group, will become chairman.

The deal comes as the University of Phoenix grapples with plunging interest in its courses. The school's average degreed enrollment fell 20% to 183,800 in the quarter ended Nov. 30, compared with the same period a year earlier. 

Net revenue for Apollo Education Group declined 18% during the same period to $586 million, and the company swung from a profit of $34 million to a loss of $61 million.

“This new structure will allow Apollo Education Group the flexibility and runway it needs to complete the transformational plan at University of Phoenix, which will enable us to serve our students more effectively during a period of unprecedented volatility within our industry," Apollo Education Group CEO Greg Cappelli said in a statement. "We will also continue to expand our international operations and remain committed to driving principles of operating excellence."

The deal values Apollo Education Group at $9.50 per share, representing a 30% premium over the average price for the 30-day period ended Friday. Shares rose 27.8% to $8.88 in pre-market trading.

The agreement also comes as the company is under investigation by the Federal Trade Commission for potentially unfair or deceptive business practices.

Miller, who served in the State Department during President Obama's first term, said the University of Phoenix can thrive as a "leading provider of quality higher education for working adults" operating with the "highest ethical standards.”

“We are excited by the opportunity to build on the transformational work being done by the company,” he said. “For too long and too often, the private education industry has been characterized by inadequate student outcomes, overly aggressive marketing practices, and poor compliance. This doesn’t need to be the case."

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Janet Yellen is finding herself increasingly fenced in

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Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's task is growing more intractable every day. And believe it or not, Friday's jobs report featuring a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.9 percent has made it only more difficult.

Back in December, encouraged by labor market gains and solid economic data, her policymaking committee raised interest rates by 0.25 percent, the first hike since 2006. What followed has been an embarrassment: Global financial market turmoil, a wipeout in crude oil prices, a stalling U.S. economy and a collapse in bond market expectations about inflation and rate hikes.

The Fed's December rate hike forecast fingered four quarter-point increases in 2016. However, the futures market assigns only a 50 percent chance of any rate hikes this year. As Yellen heads into her semi-annual testimony to Congress on Wednesday, it's an understatement to say she faces a difficult policy environment.

Whether she can navigate it successfully will determine the path of stock prices, oil prices, the dollar, job growth and the strength of GDP growth in the months to come.

The problem is that the labor market seems to be tightening -- despite a comedown in the pace of U.S. economic growth as well as slowing corporate earnings growth. The labor tightness is resulting from falling productivity, fewer qualified applicants and the still-low percentage of Americans in the labor force. Wage inflation is also on the rise.

Taken together, all of this feels a little "stagflation-y" because it suggests the economy could get the job and wage gains we've been waiting for, but in a way that's bad for the stock market and the overall economy.

If that dynamic deepens, Yellen will have no easy policy prescriptions. Should she continue the rate hikes based on job market nearing full employment and the specter of higher wage inflation? Or should she delay based on crude oil's drag on inflation, the stronger dollar's drag on earnings and a volatile stock market's drag on financial conditions and economic growth?

Just look at the jobs report. The unemployment rate has fallen below the 5 percent threshold for the first time since the recession ended, hitting 4.9 percent for January. But nonfarm payrolls increased only 151,000 vs. the 190,000 gain expected and well below the 236,000 average of the last six months. A mixed picture.

Average hourly earnings were a bright spot, rising 0.5 percent on a monthly basis vs. the expectation of a 0.3 percent rise. The annual hourly earnings increased by 2.5 percent from 2.2 percent previously, but this merely returns wage gains to the pace seen over the past year.

citigroup.jpg

And yet, according to the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, which measures how U.S. economic data is coming in relative to expectations, the economy has slowed to a pace not seen since late 2014. This is down sharply from the highs at the end of 2015 when the Fed decided, based on the economic data, to raise interest rates.

Clearly, the situation has changed.

We'll know more when Yellen makes her testimony. We'll also get another reading on the jobs market when the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is released on Tuesday. Friday will bring updates on retail sales, business inventories and consumer sentiment.

Deutsche Bank analysts expect Yellen to stress patience in waiting to see further improvement on the inflation front given fresh weakness in crude oil prices as well as the tightening of financial conditions from the recent market volatility. Paul Ashworth at Capital Economics believes the Fed won't raise rates until June at the earliest. He sees monetary policy depending on fears about a collapse in China and a U.S. economic slowdown, as well as a leveling off of commodity prices.

But don't discount the rising possibility that the Fed won't hike rates at all this year as Yellen awaits confirmation that job growth, inflation and energy prices are going to stabilize first.

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China’s foreign currency stockpile fell nearly $100 billion last month

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China's stash of cash continues to shrink as the country tries to fend off pressure on its currency.

Its foreign exchange reserves dropped $99.5 billion in January to $3.23 trillion, the lowest level since 2012, the central bank said Sunday.

The January decline follows a record fall of around $108 billion in December, and analysts say Beijing can't keep eating into its currency stockpile indefinitely.

The $3.23 trillion China has left "still represents a substantial war chest," said Rajiv Biswas, chief Asia-Pacific economist at IHS Global Insight. But he warned that "the mathematics around this rapid pace of depletion of FX reserves in recent months is simply unsustainable for any length of time."

As the Chinese economy slows down after decades of torrid growth, many investors are trying to move funds out of the country in search of better returns elsewhere. When money leaves China, it means people are trading their Chinese yuan for dollars, euros and other currencies.

That puts pressure on the yuan, which is down about 1.2% against the dollar since the start of the year. It has lost about 5% over the past 12 months.

China appears to be trying to balance that by using its reserves of foreign currencies to buy yuan. It's a strategy many countries use, but it can drain the central bank's "rainy day" reserve fund.

As the Chinese central bank "desperately tries to stabilize the yuan, domestic private investors as well as global currency traders and hedge funds continue to see a one-way bet against the yuan," Biswas wrote in a commentary note.

"This has resulted in large-scale private capital outflows out of the yuan since early 2015, as expectations mount that eventually the [People's Bank of China] will be forced to capitulate once its FX reserves are sufficiently depleted," he said.

Analysts have estimated that hundreds of billions of dollars -- perhaps as much as $1 trillion -- poured out of China last year. Investor confidence hasn't been helped by steep drops in Chinese stocks and a struggling real estate market.

Capital flight is something the government has long been worried about.

China limits the amount of money an individual can move out of the country to $50,000 per year. In response to the increase in money flowing out, Beijing has taken further steps to try to close off ways through which extra funds could leak out. In September, it clamped down on the amount of cash its citizens can withdraw from ATMs overseas.

"The PBOC is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, facing a choice of either continued slow erosion of FX reserves, or a rapid currency adjustment that could be destabilizing for China and plunge global currency markets into turmoil," Biswas said.

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Environmental group wants Indian Point nuclear power plant closed during probe after radioactive water leak

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[ad_1]AN APRIL 27 2007 FILE PHOTOInvestigators are trying to determine how radioactive water spilled into an underground well at the Indian Point nuclear power plant.

Environmental watchdogs are calling for the Indian Point nuclear power plant to shut down while investigators try to determine how an apparent overflow spilled highly radioactive water into an underground well.

“Indian Point had seven different malfunctions since May of 2015 . . . the next one could be a catastrophe,” Paul Gallay, president of Riverkeeper, said Sunday.

“The stakes are just too high,” said Gallay, whose group is dedicated to protecting the Hudson River and the drinking water supply of 9 million city and Hudson Valley residents.

Entergy Corp., which runs the plant, said three monitoring wells out of several dozen at Indian Point showed elevated levels of tritium after the leak, which was discovered Friday.

“There is zero consequence to public health or safety as a result of this matter. Therefore, statements calling for the plants to close do not make any sense,” said Jerry Nappi, a spokesman for Entergy.

“Indian Point is online an average of more than 90% of the time, reliably providing electricity for about 2 million residences in New York City and Westchester County,” he said.

Officials at the state Department of Environmental Conservation said Entergy first collected samples showing elevated levels of tritium on Jan. 26 and Jan. 28. Entergy managers received the lab results on Wednesday.

Gov. Cuomo ordered the state health and environmental conservation commissioners to investigate the incident.Overflow of water with radioactive tritium at Indian Point nuclear power plant has "zero consequence to public health or safety," said owner Entergy Corp.Overflow of water with radioactive tritium at Indian Point nuclear power plant has "zero consequence to public health or safety," said owner Entergy Corp.

“This is not the first such release of radioactive water at Indian Point, nor is this the first time that Indian Point has experienced significant failure in its operation and maintenance,” Cuomo said in a letter to acting Department of Environmental Conservation Commissioner Basil Seggos and Health Commissioner Howard Zucker.

“This failure continues to demonstrate that Indian Point cannot continue to operate in a manner that is protective of public health and the environment,” the governor’s letter said.

Officials at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission said the leak was caused by a drain that overflowed while workers were transferring water containing high levels of radioactive contamination.

“If you are the 45-year-old Indian Point nuclear power plant, you malfunction — it’s just what you do,” said Gallay. “This plant isn’t safe anymore.”

Cuomo and his administration have asked federal officials not to extend the license of the Indian Point plants, noting that there is no effective safety and evacuation plan for the more than 20 million people who live within 50 miles of the site.

The nuclear plant located roughly 35 miles north of the city has a history of groundwater contamination.

A federal oversight agency issued a report after about 100,000 gallons of tritium-tainted water entered the groundwater supply in 2009, and elevated levels of tritium also were found in two monitoring wells at the plant in 2014.

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Super Bowl ads: What financial crisis?

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This image provided by Amazon shows a scene from the company’s spot for Super Bowl 50, with Alec Baldwin, center right, and Missy Elliott, right. (Amazon via AP) (Associated Press)

February 7 at 6:37 PM

NEW YORK — The latest developments in Super Bowl commercials before, during and after the Big Game:

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6:30 p.m.

Does Quicken Loans remember the financial crisis? The game hasn’t started, but its ad has already ruffled feathers on Twitter.

The ad touts the simplicity of getting Quicken’s “Rocket Mortgage” on a mobile phone — a jarring reminder to some of the housing bubble and subsequent financial crisis. The ad was released early online, and is set to air during the first quarter.

A narrator paints a scenario where a “tidal wave of ownership floods the country with new homeowners, who now must own other things.” Then she asks, “Isn’t that the power of America itself?”

It’s one of those ads where convenience blends seamlessly into unabashed consumerism that struck some viewers as tone-deaf after the housing bubble.

The spot ends with the words “Push Button Get Mortgage” flashing on the screen.

___

5:00 p.m.

Watch out for celebrities, cute animals and humor. Super Bowl advertisers are turning to a mix of tried-and-true crowd pleasers for the game’s 50th anniversary.

With a 30-second spot costing an estimate $5 million, many advertisers are skipping the crass humor to play it relatively safe.

Uplifting messages and “cause advertising” also give this year’s ads a more grown-up feel. Budweiser features British actress Helen Mirren telling people why drunken driving is a bad idea. SunTrust urges people to let go of financial stress. Colgate Palmolive tells people to “Save Water.”

Many companies also released ads online early in hopes of generating extra buzz. But there are still a few surprises left, with Taco Bell, Chrysler and Coke yet to release their ads.

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German Regulator Orders Halt to Maple Bank Transactions

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Wendelin Wiedeking in November 2008, when he was the chief executive of Porsche. He and the former chief financial officer are on trial on charges that they deliberately misled investors in October 2008 to drive up the Volkswagen share price.

FRANKFURT — German regulators said on Sunday that they had imposed a moratorium on business activity by a niche investment bank in Frankfurt that played a prominent role in attempts by the Porsche family to take over Volkswagen several years ago.

The German banking regulator, known as Bafin, said that it ordered a halt to financial transactions by Maple Bank, the German subsidiary of Maple Financial Group of Canada. With obligations of about 2.6 billion euros, or $2.9 billion, the bank is overly indebted, Bafin said. Maple Bank is also the target of a tax evasion investigation that led to raids on bank offices in September.

It was the first time since December 2012 that German regulators have ordered a bank to close. Maple Bank has about €5 billion in assets and is not big enough to pose a threat to the stability of the financial system, Bafin said in a statement.

No one answered the phone at Maple Bank offices in Frankfurt on Sunday, and bank employees did not respond to emails seeking comment.

Maple Bank was at the center of an attempt in 2008 by Porsche, the sports car maker, and its family owners to take over Volkswagen. The takeover bid is also the focus of a criminal trial underway in Stuttgart, Germany, against two former Porsche executives accused of market manipulation.

Maple Bank, which advertises on its website that it specializes in market transactions, helped Porsche lock up Volkswagen shares using a complex combination of derivatives.

Porsche eventually failed to achieve its goal of acquiring 75 percent of Volkswagen, and Volkswagen wound up buying Porsche instead. However, the deal left the Porsche family with a majority of Volkswagen’s voting shares and four seats on the supervisory board. In addition, the chairman of the Volkswagen supervisory board, Hans Dieter Pötsch, is closely associated with the family.

The Porsche family’s oversight of Volkswagen came under criticism on Sunday from the head of Norway’s Government Pension Fund, which — with $800 billion in assets — is one of the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world.

The fund, which invests Norway’s oil wealth, has a 1.2 percent stake in Volkswagen. The carmaker, based in Wolfsburg, Germany, has been tainted by its admission in September that it programmed 11 million cars to cheat on emissions tests.

Yngve Slyngstad, the chief executive of the Norwegian fund, said in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper published on Sunday that, in the wake of the scandal, the Porsche family has not been open to suggestions for overhauls.

“I don’t think that the family owners will change anything in the structure” of Volkswagen, Mr. Slyngstad said. “The family does not give us as co-owners the impression that they want to listen to us.”

Wendelin Wiedeking, the former chief executive of Porsche, and Holger Härter, the former chief financial officer, are on trial in Stuttgart on charges that they deliberately misled investors in October 2008 to drive up the Volkswagen share price. Porsche was threatened financially at the time, according to prosecutors, because a sharp decline in Volkswagen shares forced it to post cash to protect Maple Bank from losses.

At the time, Porsche had acquired 42.6 percent of Volkswagen voting shares and options equal to an additional 31.5 percent. News that Porsche had locked up 74.1 percent of Volkswagen shocked investors and provoked a scramble by hedge funds that had bet the shares would fall and needed to cover their positions.

Volkswagen shares soared because only a fraction of the company was available for trading on stock markets.

Mr. Wiedeking and Mr. Härter are contesting the charges. A verdict is expected by the end of February.

Porsche SE, the Porsche family holding company, has not had any business dealings with Maple Bank for several years and has no financial exposure to it, Albrecht Bamler, a spokesman for Porsche, said on Sunday.


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This is the big problem Obama’s $10 per barrel tax on oil

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U.S. President Barack Obama walks past a pumpjack on his way to deliver remarks on energy independence at Maljamar Cooperative Association Unit in New Mexico, March 21, 2012. Obama is travelling to Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Ohio for events on his energy initiative.

Presidential budget requests are always more political documents than genuine legislative proposals, typically containing items that everybody involved knows will never find their way into law. However, for his last budget proposal, President Obama is floating an idea so out of the realm of possibility that it makes a mission to Mars look tame.

Specifically, Obama will ask Congress to slap a $10 per barrel “surcharge” – read tax – on oil.

You could be forgiven for thinking that this is just a lame duck Obama trolling Congress – trying to provoke a reaction just for the sheer hell of it. But according to reporting in Politico today, now confirmed by the White House, the proposal is for real and is part of a larger green transportation initiative.

The timing of the proposal is curious, considering what the recent nosedive in crude oil prices has been doing to U.S. producers. As recently as this week, the price per barrel has been below $30, less than a third of the $90-plus it was selling for 18 months ago. The steep drop in prices has made it a challenge for higher-cost U.S. producers to remain profitable.

The effect of a $10 tax on each barrel sold in the U.S. would be to raise the prices on oil, and by extension gasoline. When prices go up, consumption falls, and in this case it will fall without any of the benefit of the price increase accruing to producers.

In fact, the Obama administration appears to be selling the plan, in part, based on the impact it would have on oil producers. The surcharge, the administration toldPolitico, would be “paid by oil companies.”

Of course, believing that oil companies will pay the fee with no effect on consumer prices requires also believing that the producers won’t pass their increased cost on to refiners, who won’t in turn pass their costs on to the public. In other words, it requires suspending belief in basic economics.

There are strong arguments that petroleum products, primarily gasoline, are greatly under-taxed in the U.S., because of the damage carbon emissions do to the environment and because of the cost of maintaining the country’s transportation infrastructure. That we should be raising taxes on oil now, when prices are so low, is a defensible policy position. Pretending it will have no effect on consumers is not.

The $10 fee is meant to fund a $300 billion push to invest in new infrastructure, as well as a range of technologies meant to reduce the amount of carbon that is emitted into the atmosphere in the U.S. every year.

The odds of Congress approving a $10 per barrel tax on oil – in an election year, no less – are exactly the same as Republicans backing a Constitutional amendment to allow Obama to run for a third term: zero.

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Cheap oil is creating windfalls for consumers, but also killing jobs and shaking up global governments

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Cheap oil will be sticking around for a while.

That reality is wreaking havoc and causing uncertainty for some governments and businesses, while creating financial windfalls for others.

Less-expensive crude is delighting consumers in some regions, while leading to widespread job losses elsewhere.

Oil has fallen from $107 to around $30 in the past 19 months. Furious production by the U.S. and OPEC led to an oversupply.

Recently, a sluggish global economy has spurred concerns about demand.

A recovery in oil prices depends on when supply and demand can get close to equilibrium. It could be a rocky ride.

In a recent research note, Goldman Sachs predicted “the path to a rebalanced market will be protracted and arduous.”

The U.S. government forecasts Brent crude, the international benchmark, will average $40 a barrel this year.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch is a bit higher, at $46.

An oil pump stands as the Saudi Hawks Aerobatic Team of the Royal Saudi Air Force performs during the Bahrain International Airshow in Sakhir, Bahrain, on Jan. 23. (AP Photo/Hasan Jamali, File)

MIDEAST

Saudi Arabia and Iraq have been furiously pumping oil, per OPEC’s decision to maintain robust production.

Their hope is that the 12-year lows in crude prices will push more expensive producers, such as U.S. shale drillers, out of the market.

OPEC’s production rose by an average 1 million barrels a day in 2015.

Now Iran, free of Western sanctions, plans to boost production by 500,000 barrels a day.

Saudi Arabia cut back on some fuel subsidies and anticipates an $87 billion budget shortfall this year.

It’s dipping into reserves to finance a war in Yemen.

An initial public offering of at least a part of the giant state-run Saudi Arabian Oil Co. is under consideration.

Iraq diverted money from construction projects to fund a costly war against the Islamic State.

Baghdad also started discussions with international oil companies operating in the oil-rich south to revisit the terms of their service contracts.

Iran’s economy was slowed by the sanctions over its contested nuclear program.

While sanctions relief has been slow to reach the average Iranian, the country is aggressively moving forward with business deals.

– Jon Gambrell, Dubai, United Arab Emirates; Sinan Salaheddin, Baghdad, Iraq

A salesperson looks out of her fashion accessories shop near Qianmen Street, a popular tourist spot, in Beijing on Jan. 20. (AP Photo/Andy Wong, File)

ASIA

China’s economy grew by 6.9 percent in 2015, the country’s slowest rate in 25 years, raising concerns about global economic strength and contributing to the oil price decline.

Still, China’s economy is hardly collapsing.

The International Energy Agency predicts oil consumption in China will grow 3.4 percent this year, down from 6 percent in 2015.

With a growing emphasis on the services sector, China should see less oil demand from heavy industry and construction.

That will likely be offset by growing car ownership and more demand for petrochemicals.

China is the world’s fifth-biggest oil producer, but financially strapped state-owned oil companies are likely to cut production.

For most of Asia, plunging oil prices have alleviated heavy costs for imported oil and gas. For exporting nations, low oil helps and hurts.

Auto exports to countries such as the U.S. are profitable.

But countries such as Brazil and Russia are tightening their belts after splurging on consumer goods from Asia when commodity prices soared.

In Japan, consumers are paying less for energy, but lower energy prices are hindering the government’s battle against deflation.

– Elaine Kurtenbach, Tokyo; Joe McDonald, Beijing.

A man walks into a jewelry shop that is holding the last few days of its sales in central London on Jan. 21. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant, File)

EUROPE

Low oil prices are a boost to the European economy, which is a net importer of oil and gas. It helps consumers in two ways: by making fuel cheaper and lowering the cost of making goods.

That lower cost feeds through to help bring down consumer prices in shops.

Analysts at Capital Economics say lower oil prices boosted GDP in the 19-country union by about 1 percentage point last year.

That’s significant, considering the European Central Bank forecasts the eurozone economy grew 1.5 percent in 2015.

However, the low prices hinder the European Central Bank’s effort to get inflation back up toward to around 2 percent.

Some fear that a prolonged period of low inflation can encourage consumers to put off spending in the knowledge that goods won’t get more expensive.

– Carlo Piovano, London; David McHugh, Frankfurt, Germany

People wait in line to buy groceries at government regulated prices in Caracas, Venezuela, on Jan. 27. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos, File)

LATIN AMERICA

Across Latin America, drilling projects are being shelved and governments are slashing spending.

The IMF is predicting a second straight annual contraction in the region’s economies.

The last time growth was negative for two straight years was in the debt crisis of the 1980s, which was partly fueled by an oil bust.

Venezuela is the nation hardest hit.

The government earns 95 percent of its export income from oil – and its economy was already unraveling before the plunge in oil prices.

Long lines for food and other scarce goods are commonplace.

In Colombia, oil income is expected to be practically nil in 2016. For smaller countries in Central America and the Caribbean that import oil, the lower prices are a relief.

– Joshua Goodman, Bogota, Colombia

Scott Mills finishes fueling up an American Airlines jet at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport in Grapevine, Texas, in August 2015. (AP Photo/LM Otero, File)

NORTH AMERICA

U.S. households have saved hundreds of dollars on gasoline and heating oil. That’s money they can spend in other areas of the economy.

Businesses such as airlines that burn large amounts of fuel have reaped savings in the billions.

But energy-company profits have plunged, as have their stocks.

Layoffs and spending cuts by oil drillers have offset some of the boost from steady consumer spending.

Meanwhile, states such as Alaska and North Dakota need to plug big budget gaps.

The Energy Department expects a decline in U.S. oil production, but says oil will only average $38 this year.

For new mines in Alberta, Canada’s oil sands to cover costs, oil needs to be $85 to $95 a barrel, according to IHS Global Insight.

Western Canadian Select oil sands crude recently traded around $15.

Canadian oil companies have slashed budgets, laid off tens of thousands of workers and cut dividends.

A Bank of Canada report says companies see dramatic change for the global industry, with weaker companies restructuring or exiting the oil business, while healthier companies buy distressed assets.

Canada’s dollar is down 20 percent versus its U.S. counterpart.

Prices for imported groceries have risen and Canadians are reconsidering a U.S. vacation.

Mexico is better insulated nowadays from an oil collapse. Oil accounts for 20 percent on national revenue, compared with 40 percent up until 2012.

However, the country has postponed or canceled some oil projects, and delayed auctions for deep water exploration and production oil contracts, as part of its historic energy reform.

– David Koenig, Dallas; Rob Gillies, Toronto; Eduardo Castillo, Mexico City.

RUSSIA

Russia’s economy shrank by 3.7 percent last year, its worst contraction since 2009. Oil and gas together contribute about half of state revenues. The government now anticipates cuts to the budget for fiscal 2016, which is based on an oil price of $50 per barrel. Poorer Russians are already feeling the squeeze from falling wages and last year’s rapid rise in food prices, driven by Russia’s “anti-sanctions” ban on Western food.

There is government talk of partly privatizing state companies, but powerful state corporation bosses likely would object. Meanwhile, costly plans to drill in the Arctic, once a source of pride for the Russian government, are on ice.

Even so, Russian oil production hit a post-Soviet high of 11.1 million barrels a day in 2015, according to the International Energy Agency, which expects production to tail off somewhat as 2016 proceeds.

– James Ellingworth, Moscow

AFRICA

These are sobering times for Africa’s two biggest oil producers. Oil previously provided 80 percent of government revenue in Nigeria and 70 percent in Angola. Nigeria’s 2016 budget is double that of 2015 and based on $38 oil, so the government plans to borrow heavily.

Angola’s budget is based on a price of $40, down from an earlier benchmark of $81. Both countries’ currencies have plunged against the dollar. The depreciation has resulted in higher food prices.

Now both countries are trying to diversify their economies. Nigeria’s government has vowed to focus more on agriculture, mining and massive infrastructure developments to create jobs. The two countries will reap some savings by cutting fuel subsidies.

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ES Morning Update February 8th 2016

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f4fcc159-1463-4aab-97f5-3ea9036ed085
Futures at a triple bottom

MACD's in oversold area.

The futures finally broke-down through the 1870 area (1880 area on SPX) where it hit 4 times previously and bounced off of it.  Now we are a new support level in the 1850 area.  If it breaks there's no more support until the prior low on January 20th in the 1800-1810 zone.

On the upside we have the 1870 area now as resistance, as well as the falling trendline in the 1900 area.  It too early to know the next direction at this point.  A breakdown of the current support should lead to a drop to test the double bottom.  If the this level holds we should see a bounce from it early in the day and a retest to make a "high low" before considering any longs.

How Sumner Redstone Went From Army Cryptographer to Media Mogul

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Sumner Redstone, then executive chairman of CBS and Viacom, was honored with the 2,467th star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame in 2012.


As Sumner M. Redstone cedes the chairman posts at CBS and Viacom, one of the business world’s most combative moguls is quietly stepping off the corporate stage.

For decades, Mr. Redstone proved one of the most voluble media titans, even in an industry full of outsize personalities like Rupert Murdoch and Barry Diller. A lawyer by training, he transformed his family’s movie theater business through savvy and daring into an entertainment empire that runs from the Paramount movie studio to CBS to Comedy Central and Showtime.

Mr. Redstone was born in Boston in 1923. His father, Max, who sold linoleum from the back of a truck, eventually bought a drive-in movie theater with his savings, then bought several more. Meanwhile, his son proved an academic whiz, graduating from the Boston Latin public school and then Harvard in three years. After a stint in Washington as a cryptographer for the United States army, Mr. Redstone returned to Harvard to earn a law degree. He initially stuck with the law, becoming a special assistant to the United States attorney general and then a partner at a Washington law firm. But business called in 1954, and he turned to the family’s movie theater business, eventually named National Amusements.

Business Career: Defying Death, Then Beating Out Rivals

In 1958, he sued major Hollywood studios for the right to show first-run movies at drive-ins, which were then considered a dumping ground for rerun films. The drive-ins soon gave way to movie theaters with multiple screens — Mr. Redstone named them multiplexes.

In 1979, he famously staved off death during a fire at the Copley Plaza hotel in Boston, clinging to a window ledge on an upper floor as “the fire shot up my legs,” as he put it in his memoirs. With third-degree burns over nearly half of his body, Mr. Redstone underwent numerous operations despite warnings that he might never return to a normal life.

Eight years after the fire, Mr. Redstone bought Viacom for $3.4 billion in a hostile takeover, exhibiting the kind of daring maneuvering that was to mark his career; he put the movie theater business up as collateral for the huge amount of loans required for the deal. In 1994, he added Paramount to his growing empire, fighting off both Mr. Diller and the telecommunications billionaire John C. Malone in a pitched battle. In 2000, Viacom then paid over $37 billion to buy CBS, reuniting the two businesses decades after separating and creating a true colossus astride the media landscape. In 2005, Mr. Redstone decided to split the company in two, again separating CBS from Viacom.

For a decade, Mr. Redstone went through a series of top executives at Viacom. He fired Frank J. Biondi Jr. in 1996, Mel Karmazin quit in 2004, and Tom Freston was ousted in 2006 and replaced by Philippe P. Dauman, the current chief executive who took over as executive chairman from Mr. Redstone on Thursday.

A damaged corridor of inside the Copley Plaza hotel in Boston after the fire in 1979.

In 1994, Mr. Redstone, right, added Paramount to his growing empire, fighting off both Barry Diller and the telecommunications billionaire John C. Malone in a pitched battle.

Mr. Redstone in 2003. For a decade, he went through a series of top executives at Viacom.

Shari Redstone, Mr. Redstone’s daugher, in 2004 inside the a theater run by National Amusements, the family business.

Recent Years: House-Bound in a Gated Community

In the early 2000s, Mr. Redstone established an irrevocable trust that would determine the future of his companies when he died or was incapacitated. In 2006, he had Paramount end its relationship with Tom Cruise because he felt the actor’s public behavior was hurting his value to the studio.

In November 2014, he participated in a company conference call for the last time.

A year later, a former companion of Mr. Redstone’s filed suit in Los Angeles challenging his mental competence, disclosing embarrassing details of his physical condition. The filing prompted renewed scrutiny of Mr. Redstone’s ability to serve as chairman of Viacom and CBS, positions he resigned from this week.

These days Mr. Redstone is mostly housebound at his mansion in the gated community of Beverly Park in Los Angeles. He receives occasional visits from his daughter and her family, as well as Viacom officials, including Mr. Dauman. People in the entertainment industry also stop by. Robert Evans, a film producer with longstanding ties to Paramount Pictures, is among those who regularly see Mr. Redstone, an assistant to Mr. Evans said — either attending movie screenings or just stopping by to visit.

Last year, a planned 92nd birthday party for Mr. Redstone on the Paramount lot was canceled, and was held instead at a smaller venue near his home.


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Workers’ wages up, but slower job growth worries financial markets

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American workers have begun to see a notable pickup in their paychecks after years of stagnation, with wages increasing at their fastest rate since the end of the Great Recession.

Government data released Friday showed that average earnings spiked 12 cents an hour in January, the second-biggest jump in at least a decade. As a result, wages have risen at an annualized rate of 2.9 percent over the past six months.

Still, the question remains whether those gains will be sustained or will prove to be another blip in the nation’s bumpy economic recovery. Hiring surged at the end of last year, giving workers more leverage to seek better wages. But Friday’s data also showed that job growth slowed in January to 151,000 positions — a solid number but less than analysts had expected.

The unemployment rate dipped to 4.9 percent, a milestone in the nation’s recovery since unemployment peaked at 10 percent during the recession.

“This is very consistent with a recovery that’s moving in the right direction,” Labor Secretary Thomas Perez said in an interview. “We’re getting close to the summit of the mountain, but we’re not yet there.”

Financial markets reacted badly to the news, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 falling 35.4 points, or 1.85 percent, to 1880 and the technology-heavy NASDAQ plunging 146.4 points, or 3.25 percent, to 4363.14. Investors’ anxieties may have been driven by different, and potentially, conflicting concerns: That job growth was slowing, indicating a softer economy, and that higher wages would spur inflation, leading the Federal Reserve to hike rates.

Before the recession, wages were growing at an annual rate of about 3.5 percent. But then millions of workers lost their jobs and the jobless rate skyrocketed. Since 2010, wage growth has flat-lined at roughly 2 percent despite a dramatic drop in unemployment.

That stubborn stagnation has exacerbated the country’s rising inequality in wealth and income. Workers’ wages remained stuck even as U.S. stock markets notched record highs in recent years. Weak hourly earnings also signaled to some economists that America’s work force was still in distress.

January’s data showed little change for several of the hardest-hit corners of the job market. About 2.1 million people have been out of work for six months or longer, about the same number as in June. Another 6 million have part-time jobs but would prefer full-time work. Hundreds of thousands have become so discouraged by their job prospects that they have stopped looking.

One key measure did show some improvement: The size of the work force increased slightly, nudging the participation rate up to 62.7 percent after falling last year to the lowest level in a generation.

“Job creation and wage growth need to be far stronger, and they need to remain strong for a longer period of time, before the economy is close to full employment,” said Elise Gould, senior economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute.

Still, the recent wage gains, capped by the surprising uptick in January, provide some reassurance that the American recovery remains healthy in the face of turmoil in global financial markets at the start of the year. Expectations for world economic growth have dimmed, and fears are rising that weakness overseas — particularly in China — could spill over onto U.S. shores.

Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial Corp., said January’s data indicates that the slow and steady expansion since the Great Recession remains on track.

“The economy continues to muddle along, even though now and again it’s prone to a misstep,” Moody said.

Economists have been warning that America’s job market will cool off. In the final months of 2015, the labor market was roaring, adding an average of 279,000 jobs each month, the fastest pace of the year. Employers went on a hiring spree even as the broader economy slowed to a crawl, dragged down by weak exports and a drop-off in business investment.

Those blockbuster gains are not sustainable. Estimates of economic growth this quarter remain below 2 percent, making a more modest pace of hiring inevitable. Many analysts think that the country needs only about 100,000 jobs a month to hold the unemployment rate steady.

In January, the retail, restaurant and health-care sectors booked the biggest gains. Retailers added 58,000 jobs in January, while restaurants and bars hired 47,000. The health-care sector expanded by 37,000 positions.

Manufacturing delivered the biggest surprise, adding 29,000 jobs after almost no change during 2015. The industry has been hammered as a stronger dollar dampened international demand for U.S. goods and plunging oil prices led to mass layoffs. The transportation sector shed 20,000 jobs in January after strong seasonal hiring the previous month.

The improvement in the labor market was one of the key drivers of the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates in December for the first time in nearly a decade. The move was intended to be a sign of the central bank’s faith in the health of the U.S. economy, and the Fed expected to slowly withdraw its historic support for the recovery over the next few years.

But the recent volatility in financial markets, coupled with disappointing economic growth, is casting doubt on whether the Fed will continue its campaign. The odds that the central bank will make a move in March increased slightly after Friday’s jobs report, but investors still overwhelmingly think that the Fed will take a pass.

“Risks are tilted to the downside — it is still easier to see the [Fed] slowing down the rate of increases then speeding them up,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzius and Zach Pandl, who predicted that the central bank will hike rates three times this year.

But some Fed officials have cautioned against overreacting to market movements. In a speech Thursday night, Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said she believes that the economy remains fundamentally sound.

“Until we see further evidence to the contrary, my expectation is that the U.S economy will work through the latest episode of market turbulence and soft patch to regain its footing for moderate growth,” she said.

Ylan Q. Mui is a financial reporter at The Washington Post covering the Federal Reserve and the economy.

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Medicaid across US a matter of when, not if, says federal health chief

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The 4 million new people who signed up for insurance on the federal HealthCare.gov exchange for 2016 are one of several signs the open enrollment period that ended Sunday was a success, Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Burwell said Friday.

Burwell's comments marked her last press briefing to summarize an Affordable Care Act open enrollment. By this time next year, there will be Obamacare but no more Obama administration.

As further evidence of the administration's successes, Burwell also pointed to her continued discussions with states considering expanding Medicaid to all of those earning too little to get subsidized ACA plans.

These talks, she says, show it's not if states will expand Medicaid but rather "a question of when."  She cited two main factors for this: The higher rate of hospital closures in states that haven't expanded Medicaid and howmany people left without coverage are working.

"Helping people who are working and playing by the rules is something that is an important concept most people agree on," she said.

Brian Blase, a former Republican congressional aide now with the free market Mercatus Institute, says he's "surprised 20 states still haven’t expanded Medicaid" since the federal government is paying states for all of the new enrollees.

The remaining states haven't expanded Medicaid, Blase says, because they worry the cost "trajectory is unsustainable" and HHS could eventually cut its money to states, which would in turn force them to drop people from Medicaid.

Burwell  says she will be leaving the ACA enrollment process in far better shape than she found it in. The technological problems that hurt the website when it opened in October 2013 are mostly a memory, identity verification has been improved, and the final tally for signups on the federal and state exchanges was 12.7 million people.

The number of new enrollees addresses a complaint from insurers that their customers have more health problems than expected and that they game the system to get care and then drop their plans once they receive treatment.

These "news," as Burwell called them, "can leaven the risk pool. They weren’t the people who were most in need."

Next steps for the agency will be to continue to reform the costly way health care is delivered in this country, including by testing ways to incorporate social services into the efforts, Burwell says. This includes new research into the benefits of linking patients to social services, which she says builds on the move towards healthcare that focuses on quality and value over the quantity of treatments.

"We need to fundamentally think about how we can deliver health care differently," she said.

That includes "helping people connect with services differently," she said. One of the most important hires many doctors and hospitals make, she said, are people who make sure people take their medications, connect them with behavioral health providers or help them with housing or food.

Many of hospital costs are driven by people who need such social services, use emergency rooms frequently and are enrolled in both Medicare and Medicaid.  She cited hospitals that have reduced ER visits by linking people with housing and other services.

"We are on this path towards change," she said.

Burwell also said "quality and affordability" of health care remains a concern of hers and must be a goal of consumers as they continue to shoulder more of the costs of their own care.

Quality is getting hard to find, however. A report out Friday by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation found more than half of hospitals reduced the number of insurance networks they were in for 2016. The percent of hospitals that were only in-network with one ACA exchange plan increased from 7% in 2015 to 20% in 2016. When compared to U.S. News & World Report's most highly-rated hospitals, RWJF found nearly all were in-network with at least one exchange plan.

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Wages Rise as US Unemployment Rate Falls Below 5%

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The American economy’s jobs machine cooled in January but still performed well enough to push unemployment to an eight-year low and deliver some much-needed wage gains for ordinary workers.

The Labor Department said Friday that payrolls rose by 151,000 in January, a falloff from the year-end sprint that helped make 2015 the second-best year for job creation since the late 1990s.

Analysts said that the slowdown might push the Federal Reserve to postpone another interest rate increase when it meets next month, but signs of a tighter labor market suggested that policy makers would be looking closely at incoming data.

“We are likely to have to two rate hikes this year, probably in June and December,” said Diane Swonk, an independent economist in Chicago, “but the wage gains are important, so March can’t be ruled out.”

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Given the big jump in payrolls late last year, as well as much colder weather last month after the warmest December on record, some payback in January was to be expected.

A job applicant at a military job fair in Washington in January. The economy added 2.65 million jobs last year, but many Americans say they do not feel it.

“The headline number was a bit of a disappointment but not too bad, and the rest of the report suggests steady improvement,” said Michael Hanson, a senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. “The financial markets are leery, but the labor market still looks like it’s continuing to grow.”

President Obama, who has been frustrated that he has not received the credit he feels he deserves for the country’s improving economy, said the jobs numbers were more signs of progress.

“After reaching 10 percent in 2009, the unemployment rate has now fallen to 4.9 percent even as more American joined the job market last month,” he said. “Americans are working.”

Investors have been edgy lately, concerned about weakness in China, plunging oil prices and a series of reports suggesting that the American economy may have hit an air pocket in recent weeks.

The latest figures on the job market — plus a slight fall in the unemployment rate to 4.9 percent, from 5 percent in December — suggest that some modest strength persists. January was the first time since February 2008 that the unemployment rate fell below 5 percent, just before the collapse of Bear Stearns set the stage for the financial crisis.

To be sure, markets are mercurial, foreseeing recessions that never come to pass and assuming the good times will go on right up until the music stops.

“We don’t think the economy is sliding into a recession,” said Michael Gapen, chief United States economist at Barclays. “We do think the unemployment rate will continue to drift lower and that will support wage growth.”

Last month, average hourly earnings rose 0.5 percent, leaving wages up 2.5 percent over the last 12 months. That was the best showing since January 2015, and it suggested some of the benefits from the falling unemployment rate were beginning to flow to ordinary workers.

For all the concerns about growth in 2016, the Main Street economy appears to be on a fairly solid footing.

Since the beginning of 2010, the American economy has gained nearly 14 million jobs, with healthy increases more recently in better-paying sectors like professional and business services as well as construction. Even as employers had been hiring at a healthy pace, they were only sparingly handing out substantial raises.

All of these crosscurrents — steady hiring but anxious markets, falling unemployment but flat wages — underscore the delicate task now facing the Fed.

The central bank raised short-term interest rates in December, confident that the economy could withstand the impact of a quarter-point tightening in monetary policy after almost a decade of near-zero rates.

But the sell-off in global stock markets, as well as disappointing retail sales and a gloomier trade balance, has prompted some experts to conclude that the Fed won’t move imminently.

Ms. Swonk said the report for January has ammunition for Fed officials who favor a rate-tightening sooner rather than later, as well as those who are more dovish. The jump in average hourly earnings last month might be evidence that wage pressures are building, ultimately setting off more inflation, while the slowdown in payroll growth is an indicator that the economy is nowhere near overheating.

Continue reading the main story

The overall picture in Friday’s report obscures spots of real strength, along with some real pain.

In a reversal after weakness in the second half of 2015, the manufacturing sector surged last month, adding 29,000 jobs. The strong dollar and weak export markets in Asia and Europe had hurt factory employment, but some experts suggested that the worst may now be over.

“It’s a sign the manufacturing sector may be stabilizing,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West in San Francisco. While the factory sector in the United States is not nearly the size it once was, it is an important creator of better-paying jobs for less-educated workers who have fared poorly in the recovery.

The construction industry, another source of higher-paying jobs for blue-collar workers, also held up well, adding 18,000 jobs, despite colder weather, which can hold up new building.

The biggest surprise, Mr. Anderson said, was that after months of strength, the service sector faded, highlighted by a 38,500 drop in education services.

The overall figures for job creation, as well as the sector-by-sector data, are likely to be revised in future months as more data comes in. On Friday, the big job gain in December was revised downward by the Labor Department, while November’s payroll data was revised upward, reducing payrolls by 2,000 for the final two months of 2015.

The three-month trend in job creation, which economists tend to regard as more meaningful because it smoothes out the month-to-month fluctuations, stands at 231,000, which is more than enough to keep the unemployment rate moving lower.

The proportion of Americans who are in the labor force, which has been stuck at lows not seen since the late 1970s, ticked up slightly in January.

As has been the case since the current recovery began in mid-2009, the most-educated workers are doing best in today’s job market: The unemployment rate for college graduates was unchanged in January at 2.5 percent, while joblessness ticked upward to 7.4 percent for people without a high school diploma.

For the winners, especially in parts of the country where unemployment is very low, Wall Street’s nervousness seems misplaced.

“It’s a very tight labor market, and we continue to hire,” said Dave Rozenboom, president of First Premier Bank in Sioux Falls, S.D. “The economy is as strong as it has ever been here.”

With a state unemployment rate of 2.9 percent in late 2015, employers are feeling pressure to increase wages to attract and retain workers, he said.

Starting salaries for workers who handle credit card customer service and collections recently went to $13 an hour from $11.75, Mr. Rozenboom said. Hospitals and construction firms in the region are also hiring.

Sioux Falls’s situation may be unusually strong, but the upward trajectory in employment over all in the United States suggests to some analysts that the owners of smaller businesses know something that the Wall Street pessimists don’t.

“We think the recession talk is overdone and that labor markets are the primary signal that suggests the economy is healthier than people think,” Mr. Gapen of Barclays said. “There is weakness in places tied to energy and in the industrial Midwest, but it’s not widespread and doesn’t suggest there is a more systemic problem.”


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Market view of next US rate hike shifts into 2016 after jobs data

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A man walks past the snow-covered grounds of the U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington January 26, 2016. REUTERS/Jonathan ErnstThomson ReutersA man walks past the snow-covered grounds of the U.S. Federal Reserve in WashingtonBy Ann Saphir

The U.S. Federal Reserve is increasingly likely to raise interest rates this year, traders bet on Friday, as a long-awaited surge in wages finally materialized and the unemployment rate dropped to an eight-year low.

U.S. short-term interest-rate futures contracts fell, suggesting traders are now pricing in about a 50 percent chance that the U.S. central bank will next raise rates in December, up from about 20 percent before the report.

They had been expecting the Fed to wait until well into next year before raising rates, on worries that a global market selloff sparked by slowing growth in China could create headwinds for the U.S. economy, pushing inflation even farther below the Fed's 2 percent goal.

U.S. job gains slowed more than expected in January as the boost to hiring from unseasonably mild weather faded, but average hourly earnings rose 0.5 percent and the unemployment rate fell to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent, the Labor Department said on Friday in its monthly employment report.

The report "makes the case that inflation is possible in the U.S. against the backdrop of a lot of the financial turmoil that we've been seeing," said Aaron Kohli, interest rate strategist at BMO Capital Markets in New York.

The Fed raised rates by a quarter of a percentage point in December, the first hike in nearly a decade, and issued economic projections suggesting four rate hikes in 2016. Most economists now see that scenario as overly aggressive, and traders since January had begun to bet against even one rate hike this year.

Traders are pricing in a 12 percent chance of a rate hike at the Fed's next policy-setting meeting in March.

But some analysts are warning against complacency, with the jobless rate around the level that many economists and Fed officials see as the lowest rate that can be sustained before inflation pressures start to build.

"With the drop in the jobless rate and the spike in earnings, the risk of a rate hike in March can’t be fully ignored as markets have done," Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist for Mizuho Securities, told clients in a note.

(Reporting by Ann Saphir with reporting by Karen Brettell in New York; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Frances Kerry and Paul Simao)

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