On Friday I overlooked the 60 minute chart, which threw the Black Monday off by a day (that's assuming it falls hard tomorrow, as I'm expecting it too?). Yes, it did go down today, but the larger down day should be tomorrow. It took most of the morning for the 60 minute chart to rise back up and then start to roll back over to the down side.
This formed our minor wave 2 up, inside larger/intermediate wave 3 down. For tomorrow we have the Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 60 Minute, and 15 Minute charts ALL Point Down! If this market doesn't sell off at least 200 points on the Dow... I'd be shocked! I'm really expecting a 300-400 point sell off... a Black Tuesday instead! I should have seen that on Friday, but I review so much material that I just missed it. Arrrggh!
So, I got in a little early, but I'll still profit handsomely as the next move down occurs.  Here's a chart of where we are now, and what I'm expecting...
It looks like we just completed minor wave 2 up, inside larger/intermediate wave 3, and are ready to start going down hard tomorrow. While it is possible that minor wave 2 up isn't done yet, as it could make an ABC move up to 1080 or so, I don't believe it will.
The only thing that could delay the move down is that the market could be waiting for the job's number on Thursday. But, I really doubt that they are going to rally up into Thursday number's. Instead, they fear bad numbers, so they would sell off before hand.
The charts are saying that we have a 300-400 point drop tomorrow, but I don't like to call out number's... only that the odds of a big down day is quite high. Doing the charts, and looking at the wave count, it goes like this...
- We are most likely in Primary Wave 3 down with 1150 being the final high from the March, 2009 low of 666.
- We are also in Major Wave 1 down from the 1150 high, and it should end at the fore-casted low around 980 this week. (This assumes that Major Wave 1 will only have 3 intermediate wave in it, not 5 waves... which it could have?).
- We are still in intermediate wave 3 that started at 1105 and should again complete around 980 (that's a forecast-ed projection level, and it could be wrong?)
- Finally, we just completed Minor Wave 2 up, inside intermediate wave 3 down... or we are still in Minor Wave 2 up, and it's going to make an ABC move up to 1080. NOT Likely, but possible. If so, then we will have to defy gravity and roll the 60 minute, and 15 minutes charts back up quickly tomorrow morning. I don't see it happening.
So, from looking at the charts, counting EW's, finding support and resistance levels, and tracking the MACD's on all the charts... they all point to a large down day tomorrow! Could it be "Black Tuesday", instead of Monday? Possible I guess?
Let's look for news that can cause the event to happen. MobyDoc just posted this link on my weekend post. It's talks of another terrorist attack on the 11th, or something bad? When the market reads this news, are they going to rally until Thursday to see if it happens, or sell like a bat outta hell before they get caught long? I think you know the answer to that...
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,585143,00.html?test=latestnews
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2010/02/20102905431956447.html
I've spoken about the "False Flag" events on my weekend post.... in the comment sections. I'm going to post a video here for you to watch. It's a long video, but well worth your time.... as we don't have a lot left. I know that some of you might find it hard to believe in Aliens and stuff... but it's all real, and what happens affect the stock market.
There is now hundred of ships off the coast of Yeman. They are from every nation in the world that has a Navy. What are they doing there you ask? There is a Huge Stargate (yes, like on the TV show) under the sea that is opening and the world elite is worried about it, and are most likely trying to stop it. Supposedly it is going to render all the world's weapons worthless, and not able to work anymore.
Of course the world elite don't want that to happen as that would make everyone in the world equal, and they couldn't use us as their personal slaves anymore. No more money needed, as the world goes through a positive transformation. This is a good thing... for everyone who is honest and good, but a bad thing for the evil people who run the planet.
We are about to go through a wonderful transformation on, or around December 21st, 2012. Call it Heaven for us good people, and Hell for those bad people. Your religion isn't important, only what kind of person you really are "on the inside" is what's really important.
So, how do you keep the people away from the Gulf of Aden, (which is right off the coast of Yeman)... you stage another terrorist attack, which are better known as "False Flags". Read this...
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6173II20100208
It keeps every one away while you all work to stop the Stargate from opening, or try to control it some how? What they don't understand, is that the ending story was already written in the Bible... and the good guys win, the crooked banksters, gangsters, thugs, Illuminati, or whatever you what to call them... LOSE!
Of course they need to pay for the next staged war that we are going into, and how do you do that? Crash the stock market of course. Still think I'm nuts? Again, when is a conspiracy NOT a conspiracy? When it's true of course...
Here's on more interesting video for you... (by the way Goldman Sachs and the Carlyle group are co-owners of Kinder Morgan)
Are you starting to put the pieces together yet?
Red
Red, I sure hope these theories aren't true. I better go hide in my bomb shelter on the 11th! Can't watch the market from there though 🙂 Futures holding up – bummer. Anxious to see what happens tomorrow. Good night!
I hope there not true as well Monica… but it's hard to ignore it, when it's right there in your face.
Well, I am up in the middle of the night and futures are sky high. Looks like we are going to have a big pop tomorrow. What a fun roller coaster ride!
Don't believe any of Monica… hang tight, she's sinking.
We shall see Red. I am hanging tight – thanks!
No one said this game was easy girl. You have too have big one's… if you know what I mean.
That, I do!
Red,
I am sorry, I don't really understand even after reading your post today. What is Stargate and how is it related to 2012. What is undersea opening opening. Please give your best shot to explain in layman's language. I am following EWs well but not this stuff about Stargate. Thanks in advance…
The Stargate is a large ring device that is basically a portal to another world and another time. Outside of this planet, time is 3 dimensional… whereas here on Earth it's only 1 dimensional.
We can't stop time or go back in time… it only goes forward. Through the Stargate there is a Past, Present, and Future… or 3 dimensions of time.
Of course I don't know what's coming through the Stargate, but the governments of the world are pretty scared right now. That's why they have 100's of war ships over there trying to stop it from happening.
I believe it's a good thing, but that's another long story. Let's stay focused on the market. OK, if they are all over they circling the Stargate, and plan to do something stupid to it, they have too distract the world.
So, you stage an event and blame it on terrorist in Yeman, as that's the place where all this is happening. It will keep people away if war breaks out there, while they secretly do whatever they plan to do with the Stargate.
The staged event, or “False Flag” will sink the stock market of course, which will also rob millions of people of their life savings, 401k plans, etc… They will of course use the money to pay for their secret wars, or things that they do.
We have too stay alert and try to see this happening before it happens. That way, we can be short in the market when they decide to sink it. That time is now…
O.K. Red, here's the deal: if the market crashes to 980 by end of week (or early next week, who cares…) I promise I'll take into consideration your theories and watch and read carefully the related material. Anyway, I like to read your posts everyday.
Thank you Triglav… I simply call it like I see. I could be right, or I could be wrong? The charts tell me we are going down, so that's the way I play it.
Red,
you better hope SPY doesn't open above 106.74 otherwise it will confirm the bottom is in
SPX 3 min gap on 2/4/2010 9:42 candle @ 1085.89 indicated the move on thursday/friday was a manufactured move, the 1085.89 gap will close before end of business Wednesday 2/10/2010
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43434…
It's possible that we can do a ABC move to 1080, as I posted above. I personally don't think it will happen, as the charts tell me we're going down. But, the market has defyed gravity before… back when the government was pumping billions of dollars through Goldman Sachs to prop up the market.
They are selling now. Look at the volume yesterday compared to Friday. It was over 400 million share on the SPY on Friday, and yesterday had just over 200 million shares. That's considered “Light Volume”, and should have allowed the market to float higher.
It didn't… instead it sold off into the close. What do you think is going to happen when we have another heavy volume day? It ain't going to be pretty, that's for sure.
i hate to see anybody lose money when the odds are so stacked against a move like a down move is now, which is why i post
we all now the markets are completely rigged, yesterday it took 224 million shares on the SPY to go down 7 points and this morning on 2.5 million shares the SPY is up 10.5 points, what a joke this casino is
i just hope you have a defined stop on your puts, when the SPX closes its 3 min gap @ 1085.89 your front month puts are going to get crushed
be careful
Thank you for your concern and charts. I'll be fine though, as I knew it was possible that the market could run up to 1080 first, and then fall.
We'll see this morning when the market opens and volume starts to come into the market.
Break above 1071 possible gap fill at 1098 area
It's too far away Scraoppy. While it's possible that we could go up today to 1080, I don't see 1098 as possible. Not until we go down first, and then we can come back up. But, that's not until next week most likely.
I think this is going to be the old “pop and drop” open. Just another trick to get the bears to jump ship and the bulls to board it. Everything I look at and read tells me that this ship is sinking.
I've been dabbleing in the markets for 20 years and I'm really bad at it. Never really had the money to get started. So in that way I never really did the markets.
It's like taking a very competative course and you have the wrong textbook, your hearing is bad and you can't see the blackboard clearly. Your screwed.
predicting “crashes” is very rarely in the relm of a good possiblilty. It usually doesn't happen the vast majority of the time. Catching crashes is not where your money is made but only on consistancy. (Who am i to talk).
Yesterday I got sucked into buying 2 S&P puts for Feb 990 strike at 270$. I only have $270 in my account. I have to make it here or else.
That was very risky Bensjoyce… You should have never gone that far out of the money. You should have bought something at the money, or in the money. Something like the 108, or the 107, but not the 99… you'll get killed on the time decay.
You should only be doing spreads, not straight put options… especially one's “out of the money”. Only buy them “in the money” when there is so little time left.
We'll, I've made that mistake many times before, and always lost it all. But, let's just hope that you're able to make something this time. Every now and then you might get lucky?
But if the market crashes that fast to 977 I'll be in the money.
Yes ben… but what if it takes a little longer to fall to that level. It's just a big gamble, that's what I'm trying to tell you.
It appears that the 15 minute chart is now trying to make a move up, that should have it reaching over bought territory around 1pm or so. The 60 minute has already peaked as is just wait on the 15 minute to rollover.
So, from now until about 1pm or so, I'm expecting the market to try an inch a little high. Could it make it too 1080? Possible, but the 60 minute chart overrides the 15, and will put downward pressure on it.
That should keep an large moves from happening. It's now just a waiting game as the 15 minute completes it's move higher. After that happens, the 15 minute chart will rollover, and the 60 minute will follow.
Add the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily for more downward pressure and we should have a nice down move in the afternoon.
Is technical analysis alone the answer? It seems that using “some” fundemental analysis aids in incorperating some common sense.
I suspect the plunge will not happen until some fundemental news surfaces, the proverbial match that lights the fire. That might be (using common sense) is retail sales AND some sort of European summit, both on thurday.
Weak retail sales can tank the S&P. And if the summit doesn't fix Greece than that will grease the skids for the Euro to tank which correlates with a downside S&P
It's true last week that the S&P tanked thurs. the day before the employment figure came out. but I think the market was factoring in the fundementals (the big revisions) beforehand.
Should have followed my original plan to buy puts just before the match was lit. Wed pm
That's correct bensjoyce. The technicals will set up the move first, and then the news will cause the move to happen.
Are we having fun yet?! Oh well :0 Still hanging.
This is forming the ABC move up to 1080 that I said was possible. The news that they are going to bailout Greece is what drove this move up.
You can't predict this news events. I'm staying short, as I still believe we are going down. What will that crazy idiot do on Thursday is what concerns me. A terrorist attack?
I just turned my head for a second and the market plunged 50 points. What volatility! I just hope the terrorists don't target Disneyworld 🙂 If it were to happen though I think they would go after the winter olympics.
I hope so too girl…
Red,
Thanks for the explanation on Stargate.
IMHO, today's move is clearly bullish short-term. As usual losing money from all angles.
Good luck to all…
Look for something in news about Greece to cause this market to tank. Remain patience… I'm still short. This is not bullish.
Red,
Thanks for the explanation on Stargate.
IMHO, today's move is clearly bullish short-term. As usual losing money from all angles.
Good luck to all…
Look for something in news about Greece to cause this market to tank. Remain patience… I'm still short. This is not bullish.
Is technical analysis alone the answer? It seems that using “some” fundemental analysis aids in incorperating some common sense.
I suspect the plunge will not happen until some fundemental news surfaces, the proverbial match that lights the fire. That might be (using common sense) is retail sales AND some sort of European summit, both on thurday.
Weak retail sales can tank the S&P. And if the summit doesn't fix Greece than that will grease the skids for the Euro to tank which correlates with a downside S&P
It's true last week that the S&P tanked thurs. the day before the employment figure came out. but I think the market was factoring in the fundementals (the big revisions) beforehand.
Should have followed my original plan to buy puts just before the match was lit. Wed pm
That's correct bensjoyce. The technicals will set up the move first, and then the news will cause the move to happen.
Are we having fun yet?! Oh well :0 Still hanging.
This is forming the ABC move up to 1080 that I said was possible. The news that they are going to bailout Greece is what drove this move up.
You can't predict this news events. I'm staying short, as I still believe we are going down. What will that crazy idiot do on Thursday is what concerns me. A terrorist attack?
I just turned my head for a second and the market plunged 50 points. What volatility! I just hope the terrorists don't target Disneyworld 🙂 If it were to happen though I think they would go after the winter olympics.
I hope so too girl…
It appears that the 15 minute chart is now trying to make a move up, that should have it reaching over bought territory around 1pm or so. The 60 minute has already peaked as is just wait on the 15 minute to rollover.
So, from now until about 1pm or so, I'm expecting the market to try an inch a little high. Could it make it too 1080? Possible, but the 60 minute chart overrides the 15, and will put downward pressure on it.
That should keep an large moves from happening. It's now just a waiting game as the 15 minute completes it's move higher. After that happens, the 15 minute chart will rollover, and the 60 minute will follow.
Add the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily for more downward pressure and we should have a nice down move in the afternoon.
I've been dabbleing in the markets for 20 years and I'm really bad at it. Never really had the money to get started. So in that way I never really did the markets.
It's like taking a very competative course and you have the wrong textbook, your hearing is bad and you can't see the blackboard clearly. Your screwed.
predicting “crashes” is very rarely in the relm of a good possiblilty. It usually doesn't happen the vast majority of the time. Catching crashes is not where your money is made but only on consistancy. (Who am i to talk).
Yesterday I got sucked into buying 2 S&P puts for Feb 990 strike at 270$. I only have $270 in my account. I have to make it here or else.
That was very risky Bensjoyce… You should have never gone that far out of the money. You should have bought something at the money, or in the money. Something like the 108, or the 107, but not the 99… you'll get killed on the time decay.
You should only be doing spreads, not straight put options… especially one's “out of the money”. Only buy them “in the money” when there is so little time left.
We'll, I've made that mistake many times before, and always lost it all. But, let's just hope that you're able to make something this time. Every now and then you might get lucky?
But if the market crashes that fast to 977 I'll be in the money.
Yes ben… but what if it takes a little longer to fall to that level. It's just a big gamble, that's what I'm trying to tell you.
Thank you for your concern and charts. I'll be fine though, as I knew it was possible that the market could run up to 1080 first, and then fall.
We'll see this morning when the market opens and volume starts to come into the market.
We shall see Red. I am hanging tight – thanks!
No one said this game was easy girl. You have too have big one's… if you know what I mean.
That, I do!
The only way to know for sure is to wait and see.
This is an old post now. Please drop by the home page. I'll have my weekend update up by late Sunday night.