This has been a really tough week for me, as the expected next leg down didn't happen.  I'm now underwater pretty bad in my put spread that I purchased back on Friday the 5th.  I completely forgot a post I did a month ago, showing a fake print of 1047 on the spx, or I would have known we weren't going any lower yet.  Isn't it's funny how we pierced that level (1044) a little, and immediately bounced back up.  If that doesn't show you that the market is controlled and manipulated... I don't know what will.
Sundancer also caught that fake print and seems to agree with me that this is clearly the way wall street informs their buddies as to where they plan on taking the market to. Â By the way, thanks a lot for all the great comments you post Sundancer. Â I'm sure everyone will agree that you are very knowledgeable about the market, and have helped myself and many others that read this blog. Â So, keep up the good work...
As for next week... it could go either way? Â I really just don't know at this point. Â I do agree with Sundancer that a gap up Tuesday is very likely... but where we go after that will probably depend on if they can hold that gap or not. Â How many shorts are left in the market to squeeze? Â I don't know? Â If there is enough of them left, then it's very possible that they run the market to 110.34 spy before selling off again.
The news on Tuesday about the Greece bailout problem could be the reason to push it up or sell it? Â It's seems that there aren't any bears willing to go short right now, for fear of being squeezed, and there also isn't any bulls willing to go heavily long either. Â In fact, I suspect that most bulls are waiting for 110.34 to sell their long positions. Â We are truly stuck in this rising wedge or channel, and no one is taking on any large risk right now.
That's why everyone is day trading, which produced the wild intraday swings that we had last week. Â Neither side knows which direction this tape is going to go in. Â It's great for day traders, but murder for swing traders. Â I'm not going to post any charts this time as not much as changed from Thursday post, so you can look at those for reference. Â I will tell you that The Chart Pattern Trader has 2 video's up, and should be watched to understand where we are, and what could happen next week.
Cobra's Blog is also excellent, and has some interesting statistics on his weekend post. Â I'm certainly not too proud or self centered to try and keep you here on my blog only, and not tell you about other great chartists and blog writers. Â I want everyone to succeed, and if I can't provide you with that information, I'll do my best to guide you to sites that I think are important to read. Â I didn't create this blog to get a huge following, or generate traffic. Â I only put it up to help others and for me to keep a record of my success, and failures.
I would be doing everyone a disservice by not informing you of others that I respect, and I won't do that too you as I wouldn't want it done too me. Â I was clearly wrong on my call last week for the sell off, as it didn't happen. Â Will it happen this week, and make my calls just too early? Â Possible? Â I don't know? Â I do know that the news coming out about Greece this Tuesday will make a big impact on whether we continue higher to 110.34, or sell off one more time before a nice relief rally occurs.
I will definitely be on the lookout for another fake print as to see where they want to take the market next. Â (Sundancer, please keep your eye's glued to your monitor too... just in case I miss it). Â I do see us going down more in March, as I believe we will go down to that 900 area. Â But, that's too far out now to worry about, as there will be many bounces along the way.
So, for Tuesday I'm expecting a gap up. Â After that, it's up to the Greece news to determine the next move. Â If it's not what wall street wants to hear, we could see some big selling. Â Remember, that would put us in a wave 3 of wave 3 down, and it could fall pretty fast. Â This is assuming that the wave count I posted on Thursday is accurate. Â If it's not, then any move down would just be a wave 2, with and expected wave 3 back up to occur.
By the way, the current pain on the SPY is at 108.00, but that doesn't mean that's where they will close the tape on Friday (OPX). Â It's been wrong many times in the past, so I don't hold to much weight to it anymore.
Best of luck to all of us, and keep up the great comments gang...
Red
RDL, thanks for nivce update & sharing your view / situation…
Well mob,
I try not to sugarcoat it, and just be straight up and honest about it. Right or wrong… I lay it out there.
I think the key will be the open on Tuesday. If they gap over that resistance at 1080, to about 1092… then we're headed to 1102 or so very quickly. We'll see Tuesday I guess?
That's what I like, I mean no sugarcoating, no pretense….
Believe at the moment, everything hinges on USD/Euro respectively Greece / Spain, whatever situation and markets can change within minutes – as we have seen last week…
Anyway, Gong Xi Fa Cai – all the best in the Year of Golden Tiger…. And continue to share your views…
Hey there Red, hope you are hanging in there. We will know the truth soon. No matter how much analysis we do, we can't predict the future and probably to do so is gambling. I do think the market is not completely random and some people have connections to the inside. Who knows though. In the meanwhile, let's just hope for the best and learn our lesson for the next time.
Thanks for your great posts. I always love reading them.
By the way Monica,
Anna wanted me to put HOB back up, so I did. I had too email disqus about getting the comments back up and working. I re-activated them on HOB through wordpress, but they still don't work? So, I can only assume that they need to turn something back on from their end. Should be back up in a day or so.
Thanks for the update Red. I am glad she will have that site back up.
As Red has figured out and I'm sure many others here that the moves in the market are 100% manufactured.
I posted this chart on Feb. 5, 2010 reminding people of the de-leverage tick on the SPY from Dec. 14, 2009
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43320…
then a few short hours later the SPX hit the 1047.28 area that Red and I noted on Jan. 11,2010.
Co-relational to the market moves that are 100% manufactured, so is the NEWS that is fed to the zombies. Everybody seems focused on the Greece situation as if it's important, one question that should be asked is where was all this NEWS about Greece and other sovereign debt issues while the market was dancing up around 1150 for two weeks in January.
The answer to that is, news is fed to the cattle (bulls) in order to direct them to the appropriate feeding trough (buy the tops/sell the bottoms).
Most people have a short memory with the sovereign debt BS, remember the Dubai (Do buy) “scare” that was coincidentally released on Thanksgiving day while the market was closed, so the operators dump the futures 30 handles and scaring a whole bunch of people out of positions.
We are bankrupt, they are bankrupt. Everything else is lies.
Don't be numb to the divine ritual taking place in this thing called the Stock Market as in Live(stock) Market.
Everyday the opening bell is rung as in Cow Bell and the day closes with the same ritual ringing the Cow Bell (closing bell).
There is a very divine reason the Pits are in CHI-cago.
What's in CHI-cago?
Home of the:
CHI-cago BULLS
CHI-cago BEARS
There's the fictional battle taking place between Bulls and Bears. When in actuality there is no battle taking place, but simple price engineering.
This is a Numb-ers game co-relational to the Macro World which is based on Numb-ers and since most people are numb to numb-ers the illusionist always wins.
People LIE, Numb-ers don't which is why its very easy to see the BULL (oops another reference to the sacred cow) they keep feeding us.
Days like today are great for freeing your mind from the programming that's been done to it. The illusionist doesn't call it TV programming for kicks & giggles.
I can't stress it enough that if you're involved in this numb-ers game, to isolate yourself from external programming (NEWS) until your mind is strong enough to deflect the programming.
Once you get past the programming you'll be able to dance with the market in flawless rhythm. The market will lead the dance and you will follow.
Insane pointless bullshit.
yes you are a programmed zombie
look at what you just said
“insane pointless bullshit”
you just made my point
LEARN THE LEXICON
Stop being an ignorant fool
more insane pointless bullshit
Well,
I may have figured out that the market and the news is controlled, but I still haven't figured out how to read it. But, if I was to think like they do, then I'd rally to 110.34 Tuesday, sell off to current pain at 108 Friday, and rally again the following week and put in new highs or a double top.
Then when all the bulls are looking for the next leg up, and all the bears are broke, I'd tank it again. Screw the most amount of people, that's the most evil plan I can think of.
That means they need to gap open to 1092 for the plan to work. A bear squeeze would then take it to 1100 or so pretty quickly. The move down to 1080 by opx would just be another way to draw in the bears. But 1080 would then be support, and the launching pad up for the next weeks move.
Unfortunately for me, that would kill my options… which is exactly what they want too do.
Are you implying that Wolf and the Situation Room is somehow constructed to lead the view to a predetermined conclusion ?
NO!
I knew there were a few people here that had both their eyes open…
yes Wolf in the situation room is just one of many that plays an important role, he plays the role well with the full beard all silver in color
SOLedad also plays an important role
There's also this clown named SHEPARD on FOX news, yes a shepard leading the dumb sheep to the butcher house and a FOX telling the truth, lol
You're talk of fox and sheep lead me to believe that I've already missed the snowmageddon, and that the checks were cashed early this time. No more downside until another fake print leads the way.
it's all cleverly crafted
Poor R and his LEG-atus theory, the cycle seems to be inverted, the May,Oct and now Feb. meeting all marked bottoms. I see R dropped his sub rate, his following must be hurting.
what do you mean my a “fake print”
It's when the crooks (aka Wall Street) tell their buddies where they plan to take the market next. It could be in a month, or less… but once the selling begins, that's where it should end.
Go look at my past post from a month ago about the 97 point mis-print (fake print). The market never went to 1047 that day. It only showed up for about 5 minutes on the money.cnn.com website, and then they corrected it to show the real close for the day.
The link is in my post above. I forgot about it, or I would have bailed out on my short position when we tagged that level last week. (we actually pierced it and hit 1044 as the low, but that's close enough to where they said they were going to take it).
Don't even get me started on this shit. The whole entire system in this country is set up to keep the sheople confused and unable/unwilling to think for themselves.
For those wandering why the rejection came @ 1150 might be interested in this chart
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43590…
the structure supporting asset inflation has been broken & back tested once.
expect more dancing with this structure before a break down occurs
What is the line that it's hitting?
you'll find in your discovery process that a certain numerical sequence correlates to all the controlling trendlines in the market
” a certain numerical sequence correlates to all the controlling trendlines in the market”
I can't figure this out. can you just tell me?
is it a fibinacci sequence?
is it Fib, No
it's a self-discovery process, once you start critically thinking many doors will open
we have a defined max. containment point on the upside and we also have a max. containment point on the downside given the setup on the weekly. The weekly has been broken and successfully back tested.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43590…
what we have is the ingredients for a sideways market until either the Max. containment point is broken on the monthly or the weekly on the downside
you don't label the purple line
what is it?
Sundancer390 I don't follow your vague references you say “follow the lexicon” what does that mean? How are we supposed to know?
lex⋅i⋅con  /ˈlɛksɪˌkɒn, -kən/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [lek-si-kon, -kuhn] Show IPA
–noun, plural lex⋅i⋅ca  /ˈlɛksɪkə/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [lek-si-kuh] Show IPA , lex⋅i⋅cons. 1. a wordbook or dictionary, esp. of Greek, Latin, or Hebrew.
2. the vocabulary of a particular language, field, social class, person, etc.
3. inventory or record: unparalleled in the lexicon of human relations.
4. Linguistics. a. the total inventory of morphemes in a given language.
b. the inventory of base morphemes plus their combinations with derivational morphemes.
AND…… on friday you stated (see below)
what are the 3 inputs? What do you mean by outputs?
How are we to know what the heck your talking about?
numbers are derived from data mining
last night i was looking for a 6-9 pt gap based on 3 inputs and we got a 11 pt gap
the same 3 inputs gives me a 13-17 pt gap potential given the closing setup, the way to read this output is the closing conditions of the market are fertile for above average volatility of the following open
bensjoyce that was in response to the divine ritual of the stock market co-relational to the macro
you won't see me divulge how i come up with a specific numb-er as it comes out of data mining and i'm not going to write out a manual calculation
if you don't like my charts and numb-ers, please ignore me
i suppose I like your charts and numb'ers but
what is data mining?
in other words you are not goin to tell us your “secret”?
you could be a “false positive” front of the masonic lodge who is to spread confusion?
all i do is simple mathematics, throw a whole bunch of numbers together to give me a hard number (probability)
there is no secret, just mathematics
Thanks for your work here. I think people are always looking for the silver bullet. It's not that easy, If it was then it would not be worth anything.
by the way folks. the bottom in March 09 on the spx was
……666 Chance alone my friends?
a very defined line in the sand on the daily
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43592…
the 50 pt. reaction we got on 2/4-2/5/2010 was because of a successful back test of max. containment point after the 1/29/2010 lows
Wonder is GS is going to start behaving themselves,It could be the new wipping boy for the EU.
The new saying could be GOLDMAN MADE ME DO IT
Remember… Goldman is doing GOD's work now, so the correct saying is…
GOD made me do it!
Obobma made you do it.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/196…
Hey Red I hope you can make sense of this and tell us what is going on.
apparently the bottom is in?
see evil speculator with $cpce
It could go either way now Ben? No one really knows yet. I see bullish reasons and bearish reasons. We just have to wait and see.
Question for Sundancer390
The line containing to the upside for the $spx is the 160 month mov. av. is this about correct? you figured it out for the spy. this is the “containment” to the upside.
The containment to the downside is a line which you do not identify but it seems to be the 80 week mov. av.
on the daily it seems you are using the 50 day mov av on the spy. As you say this has be backtested on the daily. So why do we have to go back up there?
2 intra-day gaps on the SPX
1085.89
1127.38
These gaps serve the same function as the rogue ticks on the SPY as an indication to all the regulators in the various issues where the de-leverage areas are at.
We are going to fill the 1085.89 gap this morning.
1127.38 is left.
Do you think we'll hit 1127.38 or so?
will we hit 1127.38? Yes
When? could be this week, next week, or next month
For you bears out there, here's an interesting video about the dollar, and what's next in Elliottwave terms. Remember, EW can be interpreted many different ways, and it's all subject to change.
I don't know how go this woman is in her EW market calling, but if the dollar moves up as see forecasts it will, then the market will move down. Good for bears, and bad for bulls. It's an interesting video to pass the time away…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpmnXY0eKVo
Read the comments too, and remember about how powerful wave 3's are. Maybe us bears won't get eaten alive this week… just maybe?
Past six months Elliott Wavers became great contrarians, just bet against them make tons of money. At present, there is no C wave or third wave, IMHO, these are all money losing mechanisms. If you are losing money, it is time to stop counting waves and minimize losses. Recent market action is against established EW theory. IMO, shorts are in serious trouble on Tuesday.
higher prices coming this week
i posted this chart on friday after the close but i'm not sure how many people saw it
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43530…
we've got a succesful backtest in place on the weekly from the controlling TL from 07' highs plus the crash gap of SPY 107.15
snowmageddon bottom – global warming top – viking? 08-15-08 WTF am I missing?
“higher prices coming this week”… we got those this morning. Higher close on the week is the question?
remember the backtest on the weekly
1127.38 gap is the next stop, whether that happens this week, next week or next month, doesn't really matter
It doesn't really matter if you don't really trade.
i don't care because i don't push pennies together on a 1 min. chart
long positions will be liquidated @ 1127.38, there's nothing else to add
Is 1127.38 when 08-15-08 happens?
it's possible
if 1150.41 is the SPX terminal value, then the min. reset value is 733.22
Earl, leave the guy alone. His number crunching adds value, eventhough his editorial may at times need editing and polishing. lol I dont pay attention to editorials much. But number crunching interests me.
Sundancer, keeps the number crunching coming. Glad to see that your number crunching adding value.
SC,
I have a difficult time with absolute bullshit, layered on level after level of just more bullshit.
But I will let it go.
I understand.
Earl, can you emal me ? DCsmartCoin a t G mail
On the way
Just now from Carl Futia
March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1074-1094. I think the ES is in the process of breaking out above its recent 1058-1080 trading range. I think the market will reach 1200 over the next three months.
Note: with /ES at 1084 now, Carl's range for today is +10 to -10 from here.
Added TZA at 9.92 & 9.78
Dollar Weekly
Successful back test of TL from 8/31/2009
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43619…
cross off the SPX 1085.89 GAP
Next Gap: 1127.38
You see that by this Friday?
that's one possible setup since there is only 8 more trading days left in the month after today and we'd get a choppy last week of the month giving us the highest monthly close of this trend
time isn't important in my methods, numbers will be hit before the trend changes, when they get hit will be the choice of the operators
here is the TL on the monthly that's caused all the dancing for the last 4 months, so the monthly close will be very important, current TL level is 1116 SPX
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43621…
gap and go setup
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43629…
general of the bull army AAPL gapped above it's max. contain pt. on it's daily
SPX gapped above it's max contain on the 60
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43622…
What does that mean? “SPX gapped above it's max contain on the 60” Is that the like place it will go back too?
when there is a gap on the SPX daily, meaning the operators actually gap the index on the open, there is a low probability it will fill the same day
the reaction off spy 110.34 might back test the max. contain pt. on the 60 if it converges in the 109.03 area
SPY @ it's next max. contain pt.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43622…
slight violation on the 120 print @ 1:30 est
if SPY closes above 109.34 @ 3:30 est then we're in the 90 percentile for a negative last half hour
Any downside target? What if it closes below 109.34 at 3:30? Then more upside? And do you see further selling tomorrow or just a pause day before moving higher to 110.34?
if it closes below 109.34 @ 3:30est then the setup is terminated
here are some more clues from oil & gold
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43624…
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/43624…
Looks like JPM is trying to bury some evidence.
was this time in the exception?
4:16pm est
no the percentile just moves up, we're in the 93 percentile now, this setup is based off where the SPY opens for 9:30-11:30, 11:30-1:30, 1:30-3:30, 3:30-4:00, we're currently @ 9 consecutive closes higher than the period open
given that we're only a few points away from the max. containment pt on the daily, the opening tomorrow will be important
Carl Futia has declared the correction to be over, and has gone long half a position is /ES.
He has been in cash the last 10 days.
I've been informed that a bomb went off in JPM headquarters in Greece. I don't have any link for the story as it's too new. Please post one if any of you have any information about it.
I found a link…
http://www.businessinsider.com/breaking-bomb-ex…
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bomb-explodes-…
TZA closed down 5.1% today.
Volume today for TNA was the lowest of the last 21 days.
Today was the first day of the New Moon Trade.
[ After one day, this trade is DOWN 5.1% ]
RVX (VIX for RUT) moved generally down all day after the first 30 minutes or so, closing 2.1% lower.
TZA has now been down five days in a row.
Overall, it looks like TZA might fall again on Tuesday.
Earl, say it isn't so!
Monica,
It isn't so.
Another down day in a row is statistically unlikely.
I'm holding a smelly pile of TZA overnight.
All signs point to a down day tomorrow.
TZA can't possible go down tomorrow (for the market).
Better?
Thanks Earl. I feel so much better!
eARL, this Carl Futia guy says we're headed to 1200 but
oil is going to 50
gold 875
silver 10.00
1200 would be mathematically impossible
If he is predicting the impossible, I can only surmise that he doesn't mean for them to all happen at the same time.
In the mid-late 90's, the dollar index ramped way higher than it is now, equities peaked. Oil was $12-$20 per barrel. It's possible.
dreadwin,
I focus on TNA & TZA, and whatever is also out there is maybe important or significant but I just don't have the bandwidth to keep up with it and make sense of it.
I'll believe anyone who takes either position on whether Carl might possibly be right on all the issues he follows 🙂
Tony Caldero's blog
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/
He states that this correction looks “exactly like the june july correction”
Like it did in July we correct into March (bad ? employment figure)
I believer Strause “jaywiz” says a big down move March 8th
Tony Caldero's blog
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/
He states that this correction looks “exactly like the june july correction”
Like it did in July we correct into March (bad ? employment figure)
I believer Strause “jaywiz” says a big down move March 8th