Monday, May 27, 2024

Weekend Update – Waiting Is The Hardest Part

Monday Update...

After watching the fake documentary called "Oil Storm" it's possible that we could have a Christmas Crash.  While I don't think that's going to happen, the fact that they meant it in the movie is of concern.  Remember, the movie aired 2 weeks prior to Hurricane Katrina hitting New Orleans.  It was the gangsters way of telling us sheep what was going to happen before it happens.  So, does that mean that the other things in the movie will happen too?  I don't know, but it's worth noting...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVDf_fN9S-c)

Red

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While many believe we are going to rollover soon with the top already being put in, I'm confident that we are still going up to the DIA FP of 118.16 before the crash will start.  So for me, it just makes sense to wait patiently on the sidelines until to final top is hit.

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3c5X8BZ25Q)

Yes I know that the Hindenburg Omen has now been confirmed, but that only means that we are near a stock market crash, not that it will happen tomorrow... or that the final high is in.  The gangsters have told us that they plan to take the market to the DIA print.  If you don't believe in the gangsters exist or that they control the stock market... and must tell us sheep in advance of their evil plans, then you're probably new to this blog!

This site is for "Red Pill" takers who have woken up to the corruption that exists in the world and that is what I cover the most.  I try to figure out how it relates to the movement in the stock market, which is never easy too do.  And if I were more patient, and actually listened to what they are saying, I'd never lost any money this year.

But, as you all know by now... this blog is part "stock market forecasting", part "Illuminati exposing", part "Politics" and part "Alien and Religion explaining".  It never easy to trade in a rigged game, and that's why I have to examine all the pieces to the puzzle.

If you simply want technical analysis, "The Chart Pattern Trader" is one of the best.  For a historical view, including TA's too, I read "Cobra's" blog.  He's got a lot of access to "what happened" in the past when a certain chart pattern occurs now.  Both are great, but just like myself... No One is 100% accurate.

So, you must include a little bit of everything in your quest to survive in this controlled and manipulated game of cards.  Of course if you are daytrading, then you don't need or care to know about what is planned to happen in the future.  But most of us are short term swing traders, using options and 3x bull and bear ETF's... so we need to know the future badly.

Well, the future for the next few weeks should be obvious by now... NO Crash until the DIA print is hit.  That means we will likely chop around little, with only small pullbacks in the market until the holidays are over with.  So what about next week?  Historically it's a bullish time of the year and month, but we are very overbought right now so I'm inclined to believe we'll pullback a little.

I've noticed that the week after option expiration is over is usually when the market sells off some.  While I'm not expecting much of a sell off, I do expect some to happen next week.  A retest of the 1235 bottom from December 16th, which is also the top on December 7th and 9th, is a likely target.

After that, I could see us going down to the 1220-1225 area for a retest of the November 8th high at 1227, and the December 8th low at 1219, but I'm really not expecting too much more then that.  Yeah, we could (and should) go down to the 1200 level... even the 1173 level, but with it being Christmas and the market with extremely light volume (and POMO too), I seriously doubt if we'll see it go down that low.

We even have a Double POMO day on Tuesday, the 21st of December.  Do you really think they will allow the market to really sell off?  The POMO money is scheduled up until the 11th of January, 2011.  That should tell you that the market isn't going to crash until at least that date.

Between now and the 11th, I could see a move down to the 1200 level for the small correction before a final up move toward the DIA print.  Based on what the charts look like now, I think the SPX will be somewhere around 1280-1300 when the DIA hit's 118.16 (about 11,800 on the Dow).

So it's logical to assume that it will go up to that print in either an ABC pattern, or a 5 wave pattern.  If it's an ABC, then I'd expect a little deeper pullback to the 1200 level, or possibly the 1173 level... with the following C wave up to occur with no significant pullbacks until the DIA print is reached.

If it happens in a 5 wave pattern, then we could expect 2 smaller pullbacks, with the first one happening next week... maybe down to the 1220 level at the lowest.  This would be the wave 2 pullback, with wave 3 up to follow into early January.  Then a sideways consolidation move for wave 4, and a final push up for wave 5... hitting our DIA FP target in possibly mid-January.

This is pure speculation on the wave count of course.  But from all the evidence I've seen, read, and experienced in the past, I'm 100% confident that we are going to that FP before the market crashes.  Watching Lindsey Williams state repeatedly that it is the gangsters "moral code" to inform us sheep what they plan to do... tells me that they won't deviate from their plan, no matter how much I expose the FP to those viewing my video's and reading my blog.

The plan to take the market to that level was already made back in March of this year when I got the print.  It hasn't changed I believe, and won't change.  It's still on schedule and once hit we'll be looking for the downside prints to start happening.

So basically I'm looking this move up to make extreme reading in the put/call ratio, bullish/bearish sentiment readings, and a new low for the VIX.  It's already been planned a long time ago... but can you be patient enough to wait?  I can't answer that of course, as I'm just as guilty as everyone else on "not being patient"... but I'm learning. 🙂

Trade lightly, and don't hold for more then a day or two would be my suggestion for now.  Daytrading is the only way to play this game for now, as no big move are expected until the FP is hit.  If you play options like me, then the chop action could leave you with little to no profit... even if the market goes in your direction.

Playing the 3x bull/bear etf's will also be frustrating as they are designed to slowly lose value.  So in a chop market you can still lose money as the etf's will fall in their price level while the market stays the same.  I'd only short them, and never go long on them.  Of course borrowing shares to short them is sometimes difficult to do.

For all these reasons, I'll be on the sidelines until the DIA print is hit.  Best of luck to everyone... bulls and bears alike.

Red

Red
Author: Red

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steveo77
13 years ago

This is a work in progress. There are almost a 1000 ETF’s in this list

It is always a hassle to try to find an ETF when you see some quick trade opportunity.

This list might help. Sorted by

* Fixed Income
* global Equity
* US Equity
* Commodity
* Forex

And with a further column on whether or not it is leveraged.

The list is available as a download under the “Real Data” page of this blog.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/p/real-data-series.html

If anyone has the gumption to upgrade it, add links to the chart, etc. let me know and I will be glad to post up your upgraded version. I provide this in Excel format.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  steveo77

Nice Steveo… Thanks.

steveo77
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Got the first post! visited some spon too….

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  steveo77

Thanks, I’ll do the same… 🙂

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

60 Minutes did a piece on Municipal bonds and how they are “shakey shakey, wakey wakey”.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Keep you eyes open for FP’s… on every stock and etf’s you follow. They will tell us where we are going. We just have to see it and figure it out.

Gold_Gerb
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

They trot Meredith out every time they want to shake the market.
Poor girl, I do like her bias.
🙂

Muzzalee
Muzzalee
13 years ago

You couldn’t have said it any better – the waiting is driving me mad!! Still learning patience I’m afraid. By the way, did you read the comments on the bottom the link I posted on sat pic of china? There was a very interesting comment re Bilderberg – it was what made me think of you.

Cheers

Muzza

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Muzzalee

I missed that comment the first time, as I only read the article and looked at the picture. I just read it now, and that could be true about the bilderburg building that city for after WW3.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

If this market continues to inch up a few points a day, without any pullback, we could hit our FP by the end of this week. Ridiculous and Insane is this market now.

Christmas Crash anyone? Talk about surprising everyone… that would certainly do it.

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Looking increasingly like an ending diagonal being formed. Down to 1240 tomorrow then up to 1255, and then …?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Are there any “half days” of trading this week and next? Or just days the market is closed?

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

One week Options end December 23rd. So most likely December 24th the market will be closed.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Are there any “half days” of trading this week and next? Or just days the market is closed?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

You mean UP on the larger trend I’m assuming?

anoopsan
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Yes Leo UP

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

UP UP

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

LOL… I knew they wouldn’t allow it to sell off very far. I thought we might get down to 1235 spx, but we only made it to 1241. At this rate, we’ll hit the FP by Friday.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

I’m beginning to think that we are going to hit our target this week, and then start the crash before the end of the year is out. I thought they would wait until the Legatus Meeting February 3rd, but it’s not pulling back any right now… which is extremely dangerous for the bulls. The move down will be faster and deeper I believe.

Rdgo
Rdgo
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

hope you are right: this waiting is killing me.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Rdgo

Me too…

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

By the way everyone, I watched the fake documentary called “Oil Storm” yesterday. It was the one that Lindsey Williams spoke of… that aired just weeks prior to Katrina hitting New Orleans.

We’ll, in the movie there are some things mentioned that haven’t happened yet. Don’t know if they will or not, but one of them is about an oil refinery blowing up in Saudi Arabia on Christmas Day, which caused a crash the next Monday when the market was open.

Oil went up to $153.00 per barrel in the movie, which it also did previously when Katrina hit… but we had the largest one day crash on the Dow back in September of 2008, not Christmas day (or the next day the market was open, which in the movie was December 27th).

Just something to think about should we hit the FP this Friday, as Christmas is Saturday and the 27th is Monday. We also have a double POMO day tomorrow too, which means the money is there to push this thing up more… if they want to?

This market is clearly running on fumes now, and I don’t think it will make it too January if it doesn’t pullback to the 1200 level to regroup first, before going higher.

This rising wedge is going to end ugly as the higher it goes, the further it’s going to fall. I personally would be surprised if the gangsters crashed on Christmas, but after all… they aren’t angels you know.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

$15 billion of POMO and there ended up more decliners than advancers??? ISEE also had a red flag. An unusually low put call ratio despite most indices making new highs ala April 22,23. This should drop the 10day average which is one signal that I am looking for. Setting up for weekly reversals. Let’s see what tomorrows lunar eclipse begins. Last one was 1638, one year removed from the Tulip bubble pop and collapse. 1720 South Sea Bubble was also 290 years ago (29/58 crash number).

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

$15 billion of POMO and there ended up more decliners than advancers??? ISEE also had a red flag. An unusually low put call ratio despite most indices making new highs ala April 22,23. This should drop the 10day average which is one signal that I am looking for. Setting up for weekly reversals. Let’s see what tomorrows lunar eclipse begins. Last one was 1638, one year removed from the Tulip bubble pop and collapse. 1720 South Sea Bubble was also 290 years ago (29/58 crash number).

Gold_Gerb
13 years ago
Gold_Gerb
13 years ago

There is a reason for the double POMO on the 27th, IMHO.
It’s a GANN calendar point!
http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-800E_4D10023C.html

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Gold_Gerb

With the extremely low volume, I could see another push up tomorrow… especially with it being a double POMO day.

Gold_Gerb
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

oh. tomorrow is double?
my bad.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Gold_Gerb

Yes, the link is to the right under the “Helpful Information” section. It says the 21st has 2 POMO’s, but I don’t see that on the 27th.

Gold_Gerb
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

my Lord, you have a link? (there it is)
you need to talk to DavidDT.
🙂

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Gold_Gerb

Yeah, I got a lot of links… some of which I forgot I had them. LOL

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

New video up… refresh page.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Local news in Colorado of “terrorists” adding poison to buffets.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

AMZN seems like another stock that is overvalued. Not only that I can’t see why anyone would want to sell on AMZN. I sold a $5 game for a friend and they charged me a $3.09 Amazon Fee (61% the cost of the game) or (52% of My Total Profit)! What a rip off. Unfortunately the fee only widens when you sell something that is more expensive. If everyone has to pay taxes on AMZN soon, then it will have no competitive advantage and the stock will plunge. I am considering buying some puts on it, possibly as soon as tomorrow.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

AMZN seems like another stock that is overvalued. Not only that I can’t see why anyone would want to sell on AMZN. I sold a $5 game for a friend and they charged me a $3.09 Amazon Fee (61% the cost of the game) or (52% of My Total Profit)! What a rip off. Unfortunately the fee only widens when you sell something that is more expensive. If everyone has to pay taxes on AMZN soon, then it will have no competitive advantage and the stock will plunge. I am considering buying some puts on it, possibly as soon as tomorrow.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Thanks Red, We shall see?

Johnny T.
Johnny T.
13 years ago

Red,

Thanks again for the info. As a follow up, last week I mentioned the DIsney Show “Special Agent Oso”. Well my kids were watching it again last night and I caught his watch at 2 points during the show. On it the time was 2:24 (not a digital watch). So another date to consider. The watch was upside down both times and I didn’t catch where the second hand was. I also mentioned they used the word “crisis”. Well they actually said “crisis everywhere”.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

UP UP 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

LOL… I would have never guessed we would continue up (yeah right)

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

I hadn’t seen the pitch fork in awhile. It’s nice to see that other forms of charting also agree that a top is near.

richie
richie
13 years ago

red,

i just finished listening to lindsey williams. it became very very clear to me why the ultimate insider (buffet) bought burlington railroad outright. if they move oil prices back to $150/200 per barrell – he stands to make a fortune. that sneaky snake…..none of these guys are all that talented – they are just big insider fraudsters!!!
….merry christmas also red! this is the best trading site by far!! i really appreciate all your efforts.

richie/

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

Thanks Richie…

And Merry Christmas to you too.

richie
richie
13 years ago

Red,

i just finished watching that oil storm movie from 2005. Things that make you go HMMMMMM……………… In the movie Christmas (25th -2005) was on Sunday, and the stock market was closed on 12/26/2005 in observation of christmas. the stock market reopened on 12/27/2005 to the crash. Well 2010 will be the first year since that movie was made in 2005 that the stock markets will once again open up after the christmas break on the 27th of the december month. this is very interesting movie to reality coincidence which lends to your assertion of a potential crash over christmas from a saudi oil refinery takeout.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

It would certainly surprise the most sheep, that’s for sure! Most people will be waiting for January to exit their longs, as they assume the market will be just fine until then.

Sorry, but it’s never that easy. Only the gangsters get on the life boat from the Titanic… the rest are going to parish in the freeze waters…

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I downloaded the entire Oil Storm movie for those interested…

http://reddragonleo.com/OilStorm.avi

Just “right click” and “save as”, then use RealPlayer to watch it. It’s missing a few frames as the download was only 97.5% complete, but you’ll get the message.

Robert
13 years ago

A wise man said, ‘It does not pay to be a contrarian in December”. Enjoy the Santa rally everyone………….

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Robert

I hope you are right Robert, and nothing happens… but “if” we hit that FP by the end of this week, I’d be scared sh*tless if I were long.

Good luck to you, if you are planning on staying long over the weekend. I’m hoping that the print doesn’t hit until January, but it’s not looking like it wants to pull back any right now. But, the week isn’t over yet.

Robert
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Seasonals are very bullish the day after Christmas. Long and strong…..G.L. Red.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Robert

Well, as long as we don’t hit DIA 118.16 this week… you should be fine. But if we hit that target… I sure hope you got tight stops. Maybe all will be fine, as I’ve been wrong many times in the past. But for me, I’m staying in cash until the FP is met, and then going short. I hope you exit your longs then, and at least go to cash.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Scary numbers on that chart… nice historical view.

Jigsaw
Jigsaw
13 years ago

Seasons Greetings all! I’m agreeing with Red here. We’re about due for a correction soon. Here’s a chart I posted before and it’s been acurate. You can see on sell signals it usually makes a marginal new high before correcting http://screencast.com/t/sxc0wfwqL5aZ

A counter to that chart is the NYSI is over sold and shows it due for a rise in the markets but as we know STOC’s can run over sold for awhile http://screencast.com/t/WDqfh66TReL
One last note is I have a copy of Daniel Ferrera’s 2011 market predictions and he shows a possible turn date on Jan 3, so I would be cautious going long from here on out.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Jigsaw

Thanks Jig… nice charts.

Jigsaw
Jigsaw
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thanks Red. Oakshire is bearish here as well
http://tinyurl.com/27mn557

Jigsaw
Jigsaw
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thanks Red. Oakshire is bearish here as well
http://tinyurl.com/27mn557

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Jigsaw

Looks like the first chart missed Mar -July 2009…

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Jigsaw

On my chart, which I never publish…it says If we can get 2 more up days like today, pullback coming….dow 11650 or so, maybe

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

About 300 point left to go… will we hit it this week, or wait until next year?

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo
Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

low volume look December 2009 UP UP and “crash” 15/ 17 Jan

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

To quote one of Dan Brown’s favorite sayings in his latest tome, The Lost Symbol: as above so below. AT 1254, SP has evil numbers both above and below: 588pts from 666 low and 322 from 1576 (322 skull and bonez #)…1254 is also 69×18.18 so it qualifies as an evil number outright…..224=56×4 and 808-584==224….584 the number of days in the Venus synodic cycle. Venus today finished the shadow period of her retrograde by returning to Scorpio 13 degrees where she started her retrograde journey cicra 10-10-10….224 also of course the 10-19-1987 SP close……….ISEE had another abnormally low reading for such a bullish day at 220. Last week, today’s action would have produced a record reading. $oex players bought 2x as many puts as calls today per CBOE data. $rut:$indu ratio at a new all time high surpassing its record from Feb 2007 which was the orthodox bull market high. $Rut:$vix ratio at its lowest levels through 2008. (It did achieve a lower reading in Feb 2007)….Doing some research on Special Agent Oso, I did catch a caption where his watch is set at 9-11 and a library scene with the number 56x on a bookshelf with the 3rd number covered by the Disney playhouse logo. I really haven’t seen any episodes; just quickly browsing some archives—-it doesn’t appear that the latest episodes are available.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

To quote one of Dan Brown’s favorite sayings in his latest tome, The Lost Symbol: as above so below. AT 1254, SP has evil numbers both above and below: 588pts from 666 low and 322 from 1576 (322 skull and bonez #)…1254 is also 69×18.18 so it qualifies as an evil number outright…..224=56×4 and 808-584==224….584 the number of days in the Venus synodic cycle. Venus today finished the shadow period of her retrograde by returning to Scorpio 13 degrees where she started her retrograde journey cicra 10-10-10….224 also of course the 10-19-1987 SP close……….ISEE had another abnormally low reading for such a bullish day at 220. Last week, today’s action would have produced a record reading. $oex players bought 2x as many puts as calls today per CBOE data. $rut:$indu ratio at a new all time high surpassing its record from Feb 2007 which was the orthodox bull market high. $Rut:$vix ratio at its lowest levels through 2008. (It did achieve a lower reading in Feb 2007)….Doing some research on Special Agent Oso, I did catch a caption where his watch is set at 9-11 and a library scene with the number 56x on a bookshelf with the 3rd number covered by the Disney playhouse logo. I really haven’t seen any episodes; just quickly browsing some archives—-it doesn’t appear that the latest episodes are available.

zstock7
13 years ago

Wed, should be a down day…based upon the 15 minute chart signals, unreliable….but can’t be ignored.

zstock7
13 years ago

in case you never visit my site….here’s a re-post.
I’ve noticed over the years that stock markets have seasons. “sell in May, walk away” that occurs every 3 years or so. June Gloom, every other year or so. ETC…
The next likely correction, is JAN FEB or MAR…
JAN pullbacks are 7 to 10% or so…and happen in a 7 day time frame.
FEB pullbacks, start with a Huge ONE day drop, 300 or more points in one day. It starts in the GDX sector, and spreads to all the other sectors. lasts 2 to 3 weeks.
MAR pullbacks, if 20 to 25% of my companies are at RSI 80 on MAR 8th…This pullback is brutal and long, at least 30 days, and sometimes 60 days.
On Rallies, they are called x-mas rally, summer rally…ETC
x-mas rallies can go all the way out to FEB…

zstock7
13 years ago

The longer the market puts off the pullback, the more brutal it will be.

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

That not only applies to little rallies, but the big rally that began with QE in the first place. The moment the Fed starts selling those bonds/treasuries, the market will tank, a la this past August when the Fed exercised just a few reverse repos.

In other words, the Fed is now on a course to destroy the world’s economy. Madman Bernanke can either keep printing forever, destroying the dollar completely and cause a crash that way, or stop the madness soon and cause a much smaller crash. Either way, it’s pretty much inevitable.

When this round runs out in June, mark my words, the Madman will attack his detractors by saying that this round of QE “wasn’t enough” to stimulate the economy, ignoring the fact that QE doesn’t work, and institute a much larger program.

The US in its current state has jumped the shark and needs to be purged completely and absolutely of all the stupidity (which will happen soon enough the way things are going) and will have to be built back up the hard way. Fortunately, I think the rebound then will be exceptionally strong because of all of this country’s great assets.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

There is a Deluge here in Southern California of biblical proportions. Non stop rain for several days with the worst to come although currently it appears to be the eye of the storm. I believe its related to the lunar eclipse whose zenith was over this area. Mercury retrograde might also be an influence because it’s definitely hindering my ability to communicate (and research). Last lunar eclipse on the winter solstice===1638. Which brings us to Social Network and the Statue of 3 Lies. There is a scene where one of the protagonists undergoes an initiation/ritual to join a social network ie frat house???(Phoenix house I believe—-and the Phoenix features prominently in Dan Brown’s the Lost Symbol) in front of the Statue of 3 Lies ie The Staute of John Harvard (at Harvard) titled John Harvard Founder 1638. He is asked to name the 3 lies which he replies are that it isn’t John Harvard, Harvard wasn’t founded in 1638, and Harvard wasn’t the founder. (Harvard did bequeath half his fortune to the college upon his death in 1638)…….So coincidence that we have the first lunar eclipse on the winter solstice since 1638 and there is a such a scene in Social Network, which looks to be the frontrunner for Best Picture,Director, and Screenplay (by Aaron Sorkin of West Wing fame…it was speculated that Sorkin also was hired to do a rewrite of Wall Street 2 Money Never Sleeps) for the Oscars. As Facebook founder Jesse Eisenberg says, “there are no coincidences.”

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