Friday, September 25, 2026
Home Blog Page 52

ES Morning Update February 5th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update February 5th 2018

What a crazy week we just had. With DOW crashing down 666 points on Friday one has to wonder if that's a signal to the insiders of another future crash coming like in 2007-2009. I can't answer that of course so there's not much point focusing on it. For today we should be carving out a bottom before a strong bounce. Everything is of course very short term oversold but longer term there's still more room to go down, so I'm ruling out another larger move down then this one come later this month or next.

I don't expect it right away as SkyNet will likely do its' strong rally up this week and then do the "shake'em out dance" where it swings wildly up and down for several weeks before picking the next directional move. It should be down of course but understand that if giving enough time the longer term overbought conditions can be worked off as sideways action will allow charts to at least drop to neutral or even oversold on some. The monthly chart will take much, much longer of course as it's still massively overbought. But the weekly and daily could get to neutral in a few weeks. So while we should see another larger drop I wouldn't hold my breath on it, as SkyNet does a wonderful job of manipulating the charts in favor of the bulls.

So if you missed that mini-crash (I did) then you are not alone. I'm a bear at heart but I know that the bull side is favored by those that run the market. So while the top might very well be in for a long time I wouldn't say it's in for the year. Higher prices are still likely before this year ends and this recent big drop is nothing more then a fast correction. I don't know if it's over with yet as I do think we should drop again later this month or next but for now I'd be looking for a strong bounce to start as early as tomorrow.

DOW down almost 666 points… does that ring a bell?

Red
-
0
DOW down almost 666 points… does that ring a bell?

Reminds me of March 6th, 2009 when the SPX hit a low of 666...

ES Morning Update February 2nd 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update February 2nd 2018

The futures have fallen again as the bears won't let the bulls breathe. I have to say it's been really hard trying to figure this market out as I was really expecting a strong bounce today from an inverted head and shoulders pattern that formed yesterday but now has clearly failed. The futures are now at the 38.2% retracement level and very oversold. There is a slight hook trying to form on the MACD's right now, and it did put in a higher low then the previous one. So positive divergence could be forming too if it turns back up after the open.

One thing for sure is that bulls are finally getting a taste of what the bears have been experiencing for the last two years. This move down looks like a nice clean ABC move as well so it might be ending here soon. I say "might" as I don't want to be try and be cute here as I've had a hard time recently predicting the next move. It's so rare to see a drop last this long that I'm sure many people were fooled too. I see it bouncing a little right now as I write this morning update as it was down over 20 points when I started. It must have been a reaction to the non-farm payroll report (now called "Employment Situation").

Looking over at the 6 hour chart it does NOT show any positive divergence, so a lower low is still possible in the coming future. I would not expect it too soon though as a multi-day or week bounce could happen, and is common before an even bigger drop. Meaning that if this indeed was the top (or a very important and long lasting one, but not necessarily the top for the year), then this first ABC move down could be just a larger A wave down, with a larger B wave up that could last all of next week as it shakes out both bulls and bears... then a larger C drop should happen to form the positive divergence on that 6 hour chart.

I can't believe I'm suggesting here that another larger drop is possible as this non-stop bull for the last 2 years has me brainwashed into thinking every small dip will be bought, but we are still very, very overbought on daily, weekly and monthly charts so a multi-week correction is likely here versus the typical buy the dip crap. Anyway, let's see if the market can bounce here afer the open and start that larger B wave up that should extend into next week easily. Have a great weekend and I hope you have had better success recently with the market then I have... LOL.

ES Morning Update February 1st 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update February 1st 2018

The bulls sure seem to be having a hard time getting going back up again as the futures were up around 10 points last night to now be down as much as 10 points. The bears have finally stepped up to the plate and are kicking some butt for once. I'm a little surprised actually as I thought this rally back up would have already started. Yesterday's FOMC meeting didn't produce much movement so I guess it's a non-event. This morning the bulls have an old rising trendline of support from 11/13/2017 that they seem to be resting on right now. The MACD's created positive divergence yesterday but now they are trying to form it again. This of course implies a lower low is still coming. Doesn't mean it's going to happen today but it certainly could.

My thought about today are mixed. I was wrong yesterday thinking we'd go back up and today I'm not feeling any better at calling the direction. There is NO positive divergence on the SPX 60 minute chart and technically it hasn't yet setup on this ES Futures 60 minute chart. Both say we have more down to come. But for today and probably tomorrow we could just see a tug of war between the bears and the bulls as they fight each other for the next big move. Looking at the SPX daily chart we are just a few points below the 10 day moving average and the 30 day moving average is around 2767, so that might be the next level the bears take us too? I still don't see that happening today or even tomorrow as this tug of war should continue a few more days.

But at some point we'll get the next big directional move and I have to say it's looking now like it's going to be down. It's hard to believe it will actually happen as it seems the bulls have been going up forever and just manipulate the charts every time they get bearish... meaning I'm still not getting overly excited on the short side as I just don't trust the bulls as far as I can throw them (not far of course, maybe an inch... LOL). Anyway, for today I just don't have anything clear... exactly how SkyNet loves to make it. So I'll make no forecast about today.

ES Morning Update January 31st 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 31st 2018

The bears sure slapped the bulls hard yesterday. I really wasn't expecting that big of a drop. I did think we'd dip below the 2840 area to clear out the bulls' stops but not down as low as 2818. However, we all know how overbought the market is so a larger move then expected is exactly what was needed to shake out some longs. Today we wait on the FOMC meeting and it's hard too know which way we will go next. On one hand we have a very clean looking bear flag formed now but we got so short term oversold yesterday that a move up is just as likely. As much as I lean toward the bear side as I know in my heart that this market is 100% rigged with fake earnings on companies, insider buying and selling and sector rotation, I have to also know that the bulls will likely win this battle again.

Does it mean for sure that the down move is over with? No, it just means that odds favor an up move after the FOMC meeting, but how high it goes is unknown. It could make a lower high into Friday for example and then next week we could see another move down. Or it could continue higher with a new all time high... but either way the odds favor the bulls today, both before and after the FOMC meeting. SkyNet doesn't usually give the bears a chance to wake up and join the party but instead does the entire move down super quick (like 2 days max) so the bears miss it all and chase the bottom. So for now I'm bullish and will try to buy any dip that happens around the 2pm meeting.

It's hard to do sometimes as those wild swings are very fast up and down. I'd love to see a fast move down to hit an old rising trendline around 2810 area right now, and then rip back up the rest of the day. But I wouldn't count on it. On the bigger picture though the daily chart of the SPX finally rolled over and (almost?) got a bearish cross on its' MACD's. Of course that implies that it will also turn back up at some point and make a lower high to setup negative divergence... which means the market will make a higher high while the MACD does the opposite. To me that could take several months to setup, or at least several weeks. It again implies that higher highs in the market are coming before some important top develops that allows a 10%+ correction.

ES Morning Update January 30th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 30th 2018

Well, the bears chose to take it down yesterday, which with today's gap down is a pretty good move in total. But I fear this is going to be a "sell the rumor, buy the news" event after the FOMC tomorrow. We are down in that range of support now that I spoke of on yesterday's post. It's pierced through the 2480 area a little to run the bulls stops I'd guess. If all goes as expected I'd think we'll see a bottom put in today and back up tomorrow after the FOMC meeting. You can see on this 6 hour chart of the ES Futures that the MACD's have fallen nicely and are approaching the zero area where turns back up are common. I say that I took this short as I really was 50/50 on the break of the rising green trendline yesterday. And there's the fact that the 6 hour MACD has gotten other bearish crosses recently that faked me out thinking this time it's going to break. That's when the bears get creamed shorting it expecting it to break, only to see it scream higher again. So now I'll be waiting for this to bottom today and/or tomorrow before the FOMC meeting so I can go long when everyone is super bearish again. I can't add much more then that as I spelled it out fairly well on yesterday's post.

ES Morning Update January 29th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 29th 2018

Finally seeing a little weakness this Monday morning but it's coming from a high that's far above support, so while this might look impressive it's still nothing for the bears to get excited about.  Major support is down at 2840 area of course but the 2855 prior highs and 2860 area from the rising yellow trendline will likely stop the move down today.  Tomorrow of course is another story, but what I think might end up happening is quick and short pullback down to that 2840 area going into the FOMC meeting and then back up afterwards.  Previously I thought it might be a turn down, but that would require going up into the meeting, or at least going sideways mostly with a slant upward.

This move down is too far in my opinion but not yet confirmed.  If the yellow rising trendline of support hold and we go back up tomorrow and/or Wednesday then it's still possible to have the turn down shortly after the meeting.  But if the trendline breaks before the meeting, then odds favor the meeting area becoming a turn back up, which then could push the market another 100 points or more higher.  You know how the market loves the "even numbers" levels to target, which right now the one just above is the 2900 level, and we've got as close as 2878 over the weekend.

Therefore I'd expect the 2900 level to be a no brainier for the next rally up after the FOMC should the market pullback in front of it.  It's really as simple as this... for the bears to take the market down 100 or more points they need the rising yellow trendline to hold and a continued up move into this Wednesday with a new all time high hit (ideally just a few points under or over 2900).  Or if we go down into the meeting we should turn back up afterwards and blow through 2900 and make a run for the even bigger and more powerful "even number" level of 3000 SPX.

It can really go either way at this point but the bears need to keep the market up the next few days to get it extremely overbought.  The bulls want to push it down to get work off the overbought conditions so it will be at least neutral or at best oversold (unlikely there).  On the 60 minute chart of the ES Futures the MACD's are already down to almost zero this morning from a +7.5 area high.  So they are neutral right now and a turn back up is likely before the close.

My guess is again that they will indeed turn up and ride the rising yellow trendline of support into the close.  It should then have everyone guessing as to whether it's a B wave up with the move down at the open the A wave... which suggests a C wave down tomorrow to break the yellow rising trendline.  If that happens it will likely kill the bears chance of a large 100+ point move down over the coming weeks as that 2840 area is probaby going to put in the low before another 100+ move up happens after the FOMC meeting.  So at the close bears really want to see the turn back up today continue tomorrow to make another all time high.  Will it happen this way or will the bears screw up and go for the tiny move down into Wednesday?  I'll be ready either ay with a great short from a new all time high right after the FOMC meeting or a long from the next bear squeeze.

ES Morning Update January 26th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 26th 2018

Looks like another rally this morning to open up the normal trading seession.  Will it hold or fold is the question?  It looks like a triple top on the futures so far and it's really do or die time for both the bulls and the bears.  If the bulls can't get through it today they risk falling down in some nasty wave come afterhours or over the weekend.... which leaves Monday as possibly gaping down.  The SPX 60 minute chart is also losing steam on the bullish side.  For the first time since this strong rally up started around the first of January I now see a bearish cross on that MACD... but it's just barely and with the expected strong open coming that could easily cross back to bullish again.  However, it's the first sign of weakness on the bulls part and that is important.

The Histogram bars have fallen below the zero line for the first time since the rally started as well.  It's been a super strong move up from the first of the month but it's looking tired.  It can still go higher of course but cracks are showing now.  This again leads to believe that the FOMC meeting next week will be a "turning zone", where it might not happen in front of the meeting but should after the meeting (give or take a few days).  If the bears can hold this triple top today they stand a chance I think of pushing it down to that prior support zone around 2800 but if the bulls breakthrough today then the current 2840 area will be solid support and tough to break if the bears ever get a move down started.

From looking at various chart time frames it looks more to me like a sideways trading range is going to form and hold for awhile until overbought charts can be reset.  This assumes nothing much comes out of the FOMC meeting.  If something does come out that is looked out negatively then we should start a 1-3 week correction.  If not... then I'd expect rangebound for a similar period.  The range however isn't formed as I do think it will be wider then the current 2830-2850 area.  Possibly it will reach down to 2800 and up to the current 2850 area high?  Again it's unknown currently.  If we have a correction instead then I'd look for 5-10% max, but probably only 3%-5% on this first correction in a long, long time.  That would be about 85 points down to 143 points if the top is 2855.

Again, it's all about getting that turn down started with some negative news... otherwise we are more likely to be trapped in a trading range for awhile and there'll be no correction as when the trade range ends the bull market should continue.  For today though my thoughts are that the current triple top will hold and we'll drift back down into the 2840 area of support where we'll be mostly rangebound until the close.

ES Morning Update January 25th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 25th 2018

Well, the bulls finally lost the rising green trendline of support.  But the sideways action from the 22nd this week has only formed a tight trading range from the high to the low yesterday.  Today's challenge is for the bulls to make yet another higher high on the backside of that rising green trendline.  And from the looks of the MACD's they will have an excellent chance at doing so.  The move down yesterday did weaken the bulls a little but overall it's still a bullish market.  It's looking more and more like the next "possible" turn period will be around the FOMC meeting next week.  But while in the old days we would see it have a bullish close about 80% of the time that day, (then the next day would turn down), we haven't seen that happen much in the last year or so.  It's become "almost" a non-event lately as everyone knows well in advance what's going to be said at the meeting so it's no big surprise, and therefore no big reaction in the market.

Anyway, for today it looks bullish to me but it's still very overbought on many time frames.  It's hard to chase a market so overbought and every time you see a pullback you think it's finally going to rollover and do at least an ABC move down, but instead it's just one fast wave down that ends and then it's back to the bullish trend.  Nothing new here gang, just more of the same ol' never ending trend upwards to the moon.  The MACD on the 6 hour chart (not shown) is trying to curl back up as well, which should add support for this 60 minute MACD pointing up this morning.  Odds are good for a new all time high again today so I'd be shocked if it didn't happen.  I don't have any more to say as again it looks bullish right now.  Anything can change by the close, so if it peaks out and rolls over I'd look for that 2840 area now as support and the new yellow rising trendline I just drew.

ES Morning Update January 24th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 24th 2018

Well... it shouldn't be any surprise to anyone when I say the market is up again this morning. I've never seen a market that just goes up forever but now I have. The 60 minute MACD's have turned back up as expected and are now around +2.0 from turning around +1.0, but were as high as +7.0 on Monday. This move up on them should not reach that high of course but should make a lower high and setup negative divergence. The problem with the negative divergence lately has been that the market doesn't rollover from them but just chops sideways until getting oversold and then continues higher again.

Very frustrating to try to trade something as no one wants to buy at the top but instead wants a dip to go long on... and it's just not happening. SkyNet isn't giving traders dips and is forcing them to chase it higher or go to the sidelines... which I'm sure many have done. Right now there's just no signs of any pullback as charts have been reset from overbought to neutral or oversold on the short term. And the rising green trendline continues to support the market and keep pushing it higher. Anyway, any bearish align that was possible in forming yesterday has been kicked to the curb this morning.

Until that rising green trendline of support breaks to setup the first small move down, and the small move back up fails to make a higher high (meaning an A wave down and B up) there's just no trades here except chasing the top. Maybe it will see something change after the FOMC meeting next week? Until then bears need to stay asleep it seems.

ES Morning Update January 23rd 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 23rd 2018

We've hit a high afterhours of 2842 on the ES Futures, which is in a range that many people see as resistance.  It's possible that we could see the start of a pullback today, but first we'd need to see the rising green trendline of support break with some conviction.  If it happens I'd look for the 2800-2810 area for support, but I'd still expect another move back up from that level to happen... and it might make another higher high?  It's just too early now to be super confident.  We have the 60 minute MACD coming down from very overbought at +7.0 to just above +1.0 right now, so if the bulls can hold the price level sideways today that MACD will become oversold before the close and likely prevent the down move from happening.

The bears best hope is to see either that rising green trendline break early in the day or a turn back up on both the price level and the MACD's for another higher high in the price by the close and a lower high on the MACD's... which would setup tomorrow for the likely move down.  The only thing for sure is that bulls are getting weaker as daily, weekly and monthly charts are all up in super overbought territory now.  I've never seen the daily MACD on the SPX so high as it is right now... and the monthly is insane!

Let's face it, at this point we don't even have any sideways trading range formed yet... which is common before a pullback.  We are still in a solid and strong uptrend, which tells me that any pullback here will be bought back up.  The only way to get a good long lasting down move is for some choppy action at the top that keeps the market rangebound for a few days, which then we'd still need the last move up to fail to make a higher high and setup a big drop.  Right now we keep making higher highs after any short term consolidation period.  We've had two periods like that since the run up start the first of January but after each one the market made a higher high and kept going higher there afterwards.

Anyway, my thoughts for today are simple... no sign yet of a breakdown.  We are probably very close but I'd rather not be the first guy to jump off the cliff into the cold water.  Let someone else do it first and if he says it's safe I'll follow.  LOL.  One more thing, there is an FOMC meeting on the 31st, so if the market can start to form some sideways trading range within a few days of the meeting we could see some "pop and drop" after the meeting.  Just food for thought...

ES Morning Update January 22nd 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 22nd 2018

Short update this morning.  Looking at the 6 hour MACD's this morning on the ES Futures it's fallen down to a level where it has turned back up in the past.  This bull market has been super strong as we all know and while other turns back up came around the zero area this current move up from the first of January has only fell to the +7.5 before turning up again... a very strong bull indeed.  From the looks of it we should see a turn back up soon if it's going to play out like it did in the past.  It looks like it wants another push higher to me, so I'll just be waiting and watching for some weakness to show up in the charts and well as some exhaustion move higher.  Right now I just don't see it topped yet but it could come anytime this week.  Until then the ball is still in the bulls' hands.

ES Morning Update January 19th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 19th 2018

The futures are basically flat this morning and they are outside my rising green trendline of support.  It could be a little tight on my drawing of it but the bottom line is that the futures are either dancing on the line or have already lost it and back-tested it... therefore the market is weak this morning.  Looking at the SPX 60 minute chart and it too looks ready for a pullback as both MACD's and Histogram bars are weak.  But with today being Friday, and the monthly option expiration day, we might not see much action on the up or downside as market makers play their games to pin the SPY whether it makes the most options expire worthless.

From a technical point of view we should rollover today and drop nicely but manipulation usually overrules it.  Other stocks that usually rally with the market, like the FAANG's (as they are the leaders) have been weak as well.  This could mean nothing as possibly they are all waiting for the outcome of the government shutdown this coming Friday night at midnight, as if an extension isn't reached we could see some panic selling Monday morning, or if one is reached (most likely) then stocks will resume their normal trends.  Not much more to add about today.

My gut tells me to wait until early next week to see what happens as odds just don't favor some government shutdown this weekend and big drop on Monday.  I feel like that if the main stream media (aka, the "fake news") is out there pumping fear about it causing a crash then just the opposite is likely to happen... which is just a continue move with the trend.  That doesn't mean another huge leg up in the market.  Yeah, it's possible but not likely.  I don't think it's got too much further to go on the upside before a nice correction starts.  We also have an FOMC meeting on the 31st, so that's something to be watching and turns in the market are common within a few days after a meeting.

Anyway, my thoughts for today are more chop as they pin the market where they make the most money.  If the bulls just hold everything in place today the SPX can work off a lot of the short term overbought conditions and allow for a pop higher on Monday, but again... I'm not expecting some huge rally.  I do feel it's on it's final legs up and any good news over the weekend should be used to squeeze out the bears Monday with some fast rally up that I don't think will hold past Tuesday.  Meaning we could see a top either day, but I don't see one today.  In the past I would have fell for this negative news about a government shutdown and went short over the weekend expecting a huge drop on Monday, but today I know (never really know, but odds favor it) that the more negative the news the less likely the event will happen.  Have a great weekend everyone.

ES Morning Update January 18th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 18th 2018

Another incredible move up by the bulls yesterday.  While I did believe we'd rally back up to put in a higher high I certainly didn't think we'd see it all in one day.  But here we are now back up at a double top and since hitting it yesterday we've traded mostly sideways until this morning.  Take a look at that pattern and you'll see a perfect "cup and handle" pattern, which suggests more upside yet to come when it breaks out.  Now, from the looks of things we might be trading sideways all day today to reset short term overbought charts.  There's the rising green trendline of support that will likely be an area for the bulls to bounce off of to fulfill the cup and handle pattern.

But it might not happen until tomorrow as charts are quite overbought right now.  The key for the bulls is to "not" break the rising green trendline of support.  A slight pierce is "ok" but they need to get back inside it asap to avoid a failed cup and handle pattern.  What I'd like to see is for that pattern to play out Friday morning with a quick reversal back down to still close out the day green but to also put in a topping tail pattern.  Ideally we'd see it come back down to rest on the rising green trendline into the close Friday.  This would be a very bearish pattern as I believe that support line would be broken over the weekend allowing a bigger drop to start as soon as Monday.

That's pretty much what I can see from the charts for today.  The market is very overbought and putting in negative divergences on many time frames right now, so another pullback is very likely.  Now whether we go up a little higher first and then pullback bigger is unknown.  Odds do favor a little more on the upside.  The cup and handle pattern could add another 30-40 points up if it plays out and matches the down move on Tuesday.  It doesn't have too of course but most cup and handle pattern do match the depth of the cup part when going back up.  Ideally we see a failure this time with less of a point move up.  It would show weakness for the bulls and the pattern would have only partially been successful.  I'd view it kinda like a truncated 5th wave up as it too shows weakness and exhaustion.

Anyway, my thoughts for today are that we'll chop around into the close where we should be hitting the green rising trendline of support.  Then Friday morning we should gap up from the cup and handle pattern.  From there I'd "like" to see a reversal back down into the close to rest on the green trendline again.  I doubt if SkyNet will give me this perfect setup but I'm going to watch closely for it just in case.

ES Morning Update January 17th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 17th 2018

Well, it finally happened... a pullback!  It's been such a long rally up that I (and many others I'd guess) just fell asleep and expected nothing to change in the daily bull patterns, which were to gap open and grind slowly higher all day long.  But yesterday changed that pattern as the market reversed from the high to lose about 40 points before finding support to bounce at.  It's been a very long time since we've had a correction like that but it was very, very overdue with overbought readings as the highest levels I've seen in almost forever.

So, what is it and what is coming next?  To me it looks like it was a sharp wave 4 down of some degree and we still have a wave 5 up yet to come.  I say that based on many things but the most obvious is the lack of any negative divergence yet on the 60 minute chart and longer time frames.  It tells me that we are going back up for another higher high to "hopefully" put in that negative divergence and end this super long rally.  As traders it's hard to make money in a trend as we need both up's and down's to trade.   So this non-stop bull rally has only benefited the investors as most traders just stepped aside or got killed trying to short it.

Anyway, for today I think we are starting the first wave up of the wave 5 as I think it will subdivide.  If this happens then I think weakness will settle in and the bulls will finally the bears a chance to run with the ball for a few weeks.  But if the bulls grind up all day today and tomorrow without any dips to subdivide the wave up then the bears might be best to go back to sleep as yesterday would likely just be a one day wonder not to be seen again for a long time.  It's really too early to know but the bulls have been super strong and unless they show some choppy action over the next few days it's unlikely that this rally is done.

Yes, the market is very, very overbought on most all longer time frames, but no weakness via choppy subdividing waves up means this was just a quick drop to shake out some bulls and get some bears short to squeeze higher.  Believe me, I'm as tired of this rally as the next guy but right now I just don't see any real weakness in the charts to support a multi-week correction.  That's my thoughts for today... a slow grind up is bad for the bears, as they need choppy weakness the rest of this week to suggest a top is in for awhile.  The bulls are still in control and just riding inside the rising channel, which until that fails there's no weakness in sight.

ES Morning Update January 16th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 16th 2018

I hope everyone enjoyed the long weekend.  I know I didn't do much as there's snow on the ground and going out was kept to a minimum.  The roads were clear where I live but I still decided to stay in and be a hermit the last few days.  Looking at the market this morning we see yet another strong rally up before the open.  The bulls have been kicking the bears in teeth over and over again, but nothing last forever.  There will be a time soon when the bears get their chance... the "when" part is what's so tough to know.  Right now I see no weakness in the bulls so I'd expect this rally up this morning to hold and continue into tomorrow most likely.

At that point we might see some intraday pullback but shorting this pig is just to risky right now.  I need to see a few days of weakness before I'll be getting bearish.  There's just no sign of that yet.  There's no negative divergence either.  Yeah, all the charts are super overbought but that's nothing new to the bulls and it can stay overbought for a whole lot longer then anyone expects.  Anyway, I see no opportunities for today... just more sideways to up into the close.  Possibly by the end of this week we might see some weakness but I don't see anything today.

30 Risks For The Stock Market In 2018

Red
-
0
30 Risks For The Stock Market In 2018

ES Morning Update January 12th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 12th 2018

The bulls continued to run yesterday and into afterhours but this morning they have taken a breather it seems as they peaked out around 2776.25 earlier and have now fallen back some.  I'm not sure what to make of it as gravity just doesn't seem to exist for them.  The market is becoming as crazy as the bitcoin rally!  I've re-drawn the green and red trendline to show the rising wedge we are in now.  From the looks of it the most it could pullback this morning and remain bullish is the rising green trendline around 2760 at the open and rising about 5-6 points by the close.  But today's a Friday and next Monday is a holiday, so odds are good that traders will leave early today to enjoy the 3 day weekend, therefore I wouldn't expect much downside today, and I certainly wouldn't expect the rising green trendline to be broken.

The only good news for the bears is this early morning pullback is showing some weakness on the bulls.  Now if the bulls can rally back up early in the day after the open and then reverse back down throughout the day toward that rising green trendline, and close down a little then it would show weakness during normal market hours too... and that's the real test in my opinion as premarket moves really aren't that foretelling.  So there's some hope for the bears.  Not saying that "if" this all happens today's the top but it could end up being the short term top before a decent pullback of 50 points or so?  But more then likely it won't be the top but just be signal that one is very near, like sometime next week.

This is all just speculation until it happens.  I will add that the 6 hours MACD has peaked, dipped, came back up, and trying to dip again... meaning it's putting in negative divergence.  Anyway, other then that I have no opinion on the market today.  Looks like it's trapped between the rising red trendline of resistance and the rising green trendline of support, and there's not much wiggle room in the middle.  Have a great weekend everyone.

ES Morning Update January 11th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 11th 2018

I was hoping for the small dip yesterday to be bought up big time and another strong move up to have followed as that would have been an "exhaustion" move for the bulls I believe and set up a nice move down to follow.  But the bulls did not do that and instead rose a little and then kinda chopped around the rest of the day.  This action is more bullish then bearish as it's showing consolidation by the bulls instead of a final thrust higher on fumes.  If they continue this choppy action today and maybe even into tomorrow it's likely going to put a hurting on the bears and not allow them to get some 50 or so point pullback that they rightfully deserve.  At this point they will be lucky if they see 20 points down from the top.  This sideways action will allow the short term charts to get oversold without much of a price drop, and once they bottom out in a day or so I'd expect to see another leg higher start by the bulls.

I don't know when this will end but right now everything is in their favor.  Anyway, all the bulls need to do is to chop some more to set up another strong bullish structure.  If they get greedy and decide to run strong today to put in another higher high they might be shooting themselves in the foot as it will then likely lead to an exhaustion move and a short term top, whereas the bears might get another chance at a nice 50 or so point pullback.  I wouldn't hold my breath on it as the bulls have been pretty smart.  For today I think we'll see a triangle form where we pullback very small at some point today to test the lower trendline on the triangle and then chop inside all day.  For tomorrow we could see that breakout to the upside happen if the bulls get the charts oversold enough today.

ES Morning Update January 10th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 10th 2018

Looks like we finally got a move down, but it's being bought up in the futures right now so I wouldn't be shorting it right away.  If you got short yesterday at the top then you should do fine at the open but I never short it.  It was just too risky for me to keep trying to pick a top of that 3rd wave up to short for the 4th wave down.  So I just preferred to wait until it happened instead.  Now that we see this move down happening I'd put good odds that it's a wave 4 down and will be bought up... which suggests a 5th wave up is likely to follow.  Now, this 5th wave may or may not put in a new all time high?  Sometimes they truncate by falling short of the prior high and other times they extend longer then you can believe.

So I'll be focusing on the action throughout the day to try and guess about the next wave up, which I think (hope... LOL) will end on Thursday by the close but might end on Friday.  What I don't want is for this move down today to go too far as that would likely push out the date the rally back up ends on.  It's best if this gets bought up at the open and stays away from some bigger drop later in the day of 20 points or more.  I'd rather see only a retest of the lows on the futures sometime after the market opens, but not much more then that.  The bears need to let this market bounce in my opinion, that's if they want a deeper move down to start... like a 50 point drop or something, which can easily start as soon as this Thursday's close and extend into early next week.  But if they take the market down too much today then the rally back up will be delayed most likely and push out the top of the 5th wave until early next week.  Anyway, that's what I'll be looking at today.

1...515253...134Page 52 of 134

© Copyright - Red Dragon Leo

s2Member®