Saturday, October 24, 2026
Home Blog Page 52

ES Morning Update February 14th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update February 14th 2018

Yesterday I didn't make a post as I was working on my computer, but nothing much happened anyway so no big deal. This morning we see the futures down some, which to me looks like a better wave 2 down then yesterday's tiny pullback. But maybe it's a wave 4 down and the wave 3 up was super weak? There is a low of 2620.00 around 10:25 am on Monday the 12th, which might have been the wave 2 down? Not sure on the wave count but I still think we need to go higher into Thursday before rolling over for another big move down. If that Monday low gets taken out then I'm wrong and yesterday could have been the top on this rally up, and that would imply a lower low is coming. Ideally we take out the stops just above the 2726.75 high on 2/7 and hit the falling blue trendline to stop the rally and roll it over into Friday. It in a tough zone to forecast but I'm thinking this early low will reverse back up at some point today instead of taking out Monday's low and heading down hard toward a triple bottom.

That's my thoughts for today... still a little higher before the next big drop. On another note I'm tracking a pattern that suggests we are going collapse in mid-March... and hard! A lot further down then most will believe. I was working on getting a writing tablet hooked up to my computer yesterday so I could do a video on theory... but I'm hesitant to do it and post it publicly for SkyNet to read as I don't want to jnyx it. Possibly I'll make it a private post and require readers to login first to see it? Not sure yet but if we top on Thursday then we are still on track "exactly" with the prior pattern, which I would think is amazing and crazy to be so precise. Being a day or two off would be better to fool the most sheep but maybe doing it exactly is also a way to rub it in their face and laugh at them like the elite like to do? Anyway, some thinking I have to do...

Goldman Sachs: Get ready for most cryptocurrencies to hit zero

Red
-
0
Goldman Sachs: Get ready for most cryptocurrencies to hit zero

The tumble in cryptocurrencies that erased nearly $US500 billion of market value over the past month could get a lot worse, according to Goldman Sachs's global head of investment research.

Most digital currencies are unlikely to survive in their current form, and investors should prepare for coins to lose all their value as they're replaced by future competitors, Goldman's Steve Strongin said in a report this week. While he didn't posit a timeframe for losses in existing coins, he said recent price swings indicated a bubble and that the tendency for different coins to move in lockstep wasn't rational.

"The high correlation between the different cryptocurrencies worries me," Strongin said. "Because of the lack of intrinsic value, the currencies that don't survive will most likely trade to zero."

Today's digital coins lack long-term staying power because of slow transaction times, security challenges and high maintenance costs, according to Strongin.

He said the introduction of regulated bitcoin futures hasn't addressed those concerns and he dismissed the idea of a first-mover advantage -- noting that few of internet bubble's high fliers survived after the late 1990s.

"Are any of today's cryptocurrencies going to be an Amazon or a Google, or will they end up like many of the now-defunct search engines?," Strongin wrote.

"Just because we are in a speculative bubble does not mean current prices can't increase for a handful of survivors," he said. "At the same time, it probably does mean that most, if not all, will never see their recent peaks again."

Strongin was more upbeat about the blockchain technology that underlies digital currencies, saying it could help improve financial ledgers. But even there he sounded a note of caution, arguing that current technology doesn't yet offer the speed required for market transactions.

 

Isn't it funny how the crypto world was started around the bottom of the 2009 stock market crash low and promoted as a way to get free of the Federal Reserves "fiat" money system and now that every sheep has put their money into it the same guys promoting it are now likely behind crashing it.

Why is that?

I personally think it was the "backdoor" way to introduce a cashless society to the sheep so they would accept it willingly thinking they were free of the criminal cartel running the system only to find out that the thing they feared most (the theft of their physical cash through taxes and mass money printing to devalue it) has be replaced with digits locked up in some computer algorithm that doesn't allow them to access it easily without time delays and fee's... which by the time they get it converted back to cash the price of it has crashed!

Either way they are screwed as having digits locked up in some algorithm is scary as hell to me as if you lose the key you have totally lost all your money.  That doesn't include the huge moves up and down in value it has every day!  To me it's EXACT what the elite wanted in the first place.... a "cashless" society.

The next step is to get rid of all the independent crypto's and replace them with one they control and is backed by something like SDR's (special drawing rights).  I did a post sometime back about Goldman Sachs stating that they are going to do their own crypto currency at some point... whether they do it or some one else the next move by the elite will be to destroy the freely traded and non-regulated or controlled crypto's and replace them with something under their thumb.

Red

ES Morning Update February 12th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update February 12th 2018

The futures are up nicely this morning as the positive divergence has finally taken effect. We saw a double bottom last Friday and a rip back up from it before the close. The bulls are on the move again but they aren't out of hot water yet... and that won't happen until they can make a new all time high again, which I really don't see happening any time soon. In fact I think we'll make another lower low before a new all time high, but not this week of course as the bulls should be in control almost all of it. What I'm expecting is for the trend to be up from Monday to Thursday and then topping out on this rally. Then another leg lower is expected into the following week, which should take us into around Thursday the 22nd (give or take a day). At that point another strong rally is expect to "make or break" the bulls. If it can make another higher high then bulls should be in control again for a long time. But if it fails then March should be one very bearish month.

As you all know the "bot" read everything everyone on the internet posts. So I'm not going to say the "C" word but that's what I'll be looking for next month if the bulls can't produce a higher high in early March on that next rally up. For today I'd expect the bulls to hold the falling red trendline they busted through by back testing as they are doing right now. Then a move up into the blue falling trendline by Thursday would be the next hurdle for them.

It is right into the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. If it rallies further then the 78.6% level would be my next target, which is around 2802 or so. For me though it's not about the number they hit but the "time" that passes. I really feel like Thursday will be the top for this move as I think we need that much time to pass for the oversold conditions to flip to overbought, therefore setting up the next move down.

So for today I think the bulls exhausted themselves in the premarket and will just try to hold the red falling trendline and give up too much of the early gains. Maybe this move up is a wave 1 with the current pullback a wave 2 down? Then wave 3 up tomorrow, 4 down on Wednesday and 5 up to end it on Thursday? Just guessing on the wave count of course but if that happens I'd call the entire 5 wave move up a larger wave C up, with the double bottom move down last week as the large B wave down, which makes the first strong bounce up from the flash crash lows the A wave. I think you get the picture at this point. In the long run I still think we'll make new all time highs again, likely before the end of this year. But in the short run I'm on the lookout right now for the next C.

ES Morning Update February 9th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update February 9th 2018

Well gang, the wave count I had previously went out the window with the lower low made on the SPX/SPY and Nasdaq/QQQ, while the DOW/DIA and Russell/IWM still have higher lows, as well as the ES Futures. It certainly does not bode well for the bulls on the bigger short term picture. This suggests the bears are going to be around for at least a month or so keeping this current all time high intact. At least point I fully expect the rally up today and Monday to be weak and not hit that falling blue trendline. I've added in a red falling trendline now and will look for it to hold the bulls down today. There is now positive divergence setup on this 60 minute chart with the MACD's dropping to around -20 or so, but with those "lower lows" on the other indexes and ETF's I'm NOT believing that any rally up over the coming days will overly strong.

That's a clear divergence between indexes, ETF's and futures with some making lower lows and others not. This very much suggests that there will be a lower low sometime in the futures on ALL indexes, but that of course can be pushed out for a long time before it happens. What I'm thinking it does is force this market into a range between the lows and highs for several months, meaning we could be in for a long drawn out bull and bear battle with neither gaining much ground. However, it's a very wide range of around 350 SPX points, so it's really a traders dream. Just short the rips and buy the dips as the old saying goes. Of course if you aren't really good at it you can get your head chopped off, but hey... it's more fun that the last two years of up today, up tomorrow, up forever, etc...

I don't think any traders made money on that crazy move. Anyway, for today I don't see any edge for the bulls or bears. The bears took the market down nicely yesterday and found support again on the falling green trendline. There's positive divergence on this 60 minute chart that supports a bounce, but the 6 hour chart rolled back over yesterday so that should put some pressure on the downside. All in all I just don't see anything clear for which way the market will go today. But if by Monday all it's done is trade mostly sideways to slightly up and has by then ran into that falling red trendline I'd be expecting another "swoosh" move down to another lower low before any strong rally up.

The bulls have a lot of work to do at this point to repair my confidence in them. By the way, when the DOW dropped 666 points that day (Friday, 02/02/2018) I now know it was a signal for a flash crash the next trading day, which was Monday the 5th. Well, yesterday the Nasdaq Composite ($compq) closed at 6,777.16, which could be another coded message? The 777 part is what I'm talking about of course. I'm not sure what it means but it could be relating to that famous speech IMF head Christine Lagarde did some years back talking about the importance of the number 7 in her numerology lesson. We'll see in time I guess... have a great weekend.

ES Morning Update February 8th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update February 8th 2018

Before the close yesterday we saw a large and quick drop to hit the fallen green trendline, which now the futures have bounced from and are currently green. This kinda of action screwed it up for both bulls and bears I think as it did not allow the MACD's enough time to get oversold enough to produce a strong up move afterwards. This suggests to me that we'll be in a choppy market for a few more days as I don't see it oversold or overbought enough to make another strong move in either direction. If those MACD's would have dropped to say around -20 to -30 area and turned back up this morning we'd probably seen a very large and strong rally.

But that quick drop yesterday just barely pushed them down below -5 or so, and that's almost neutral. The 6 hour MACD is steadily coming up from very oversold so that will keep any down move to a minimum if this 60 minute MACD rolls over today. I think what we are going to see for today, Friday and possibly Monday is some smaller up's and down's while we see this MACD drift lower to a point where it's oversold enough (but higher then the prior low of -50) to turn back up strongly and produce a large move up.

On an elliotwave count I'd guess that the rally up from the low to yesterday's high was a wave 1 and the down move into the close yesterday was part of a wave 2, which I suspect will end up being some kind of choppy ABC down. So between now and next Monday I'd think we'll be lower by a little but not huge. It should be the C part down of that wave 2 I'd think.

Then the wave 3 up should start by Tuesday I'm guessing. As far as the entire flash crash move down... well I'm thinking it's a much larger wave 4 of some degree and a wave 5 up will take us to new all time highs in the coming months. Yeah, there's a chance for it to NOT be over with (the much larger wave 4 down I mean), but odds favor the bulls (nothing new there as they seem to always favor them).

However, if this much larger wave 4 down (again, the flash crash move) subdivides into an ABC pattern with that entire drop just being the A wave of then expect this B up to last over a month to shake out both bulls and bears... and then we could see the C wave of it happen in late March. But I really don't put much odds on this happening. This move was done from being above the 200 day move average, not below it. This added strength to the bulls and minimizes the odds of an ABC pattern in my opinion. If we would have been below the 200 day moving average then I'd be favoring the bears and expecting that large flash crash move to subdivide into an ABC pattern where the next big drop would be an even bigger move, but we are not so I'm leaning in favor of the bulls. Anyway, that's what I see for the next few days. For today... chop is expected.

ES Morning Update February 7th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update February 7th 2018

Looks like there's some fighting action going on now around this zone between the bulls and the bears. Yesterday I added another chart later in the day in the chatroom and on twitter that suggests we'll pullback today for a higher low that will then be followed by a strong move up on Thursday. So far that's still looking possible but it's all based on "when" we rollover... meaning that if it doesn't happen today and instead rallies up higher then the move down would be pushed out a day to tomorrow, and the following strong move back up would then be on Friday.

The bottom line is that I'm expecting some kind of ABC here to form, but it's all about pulling back deep enough and/or rallying up high enough. If we stay in the middle zone then I'd just expect some choppy action to frustrate both bulls and bears looking for a good entry for the next large move... which of course wouldn't happen in a chop zone. When I say "large move" I'm talking about 50-100 SPX points, not 20-30 points... which are still big moves but hard to play in a wild chop zone. From my view it's better to try and catch a C wave up (or down) or some wave 3 up (or down). Anyway, today so far is looking like some choppy range-bound day, which again could (should) just push out the next larger move by a day.

Ideally we go up more and close green to setup the drop for tomorrow. Unfortunately SkyNet's favorite pattern (in my opinion of course) is a triangle pattern as it frustrates the most traders. So if we don't get some exhaustion move higher today but close down just a little it could start developing a triangle pattern. For example, if we drop back down to where the green falling trendline points to at the close (around 2620) then I'd expect tomorrow to be up. However, I think it would be stopped by the blue falling trendline of resistance, which is the great opportunity I'd look for as a long because that's about 150 point move up. But if we grind up over the next few days to hit that blue falling trendline we'd of course be looking for a great short. I'm not sure how it's going to play out but I expect to be tricked as that's what SkyNet does best.

ES Morning Update February 6th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update February 6th 2018

WOW! Not sure there's much more I can say then that! The market basically flash crashed the last few days with yesterday being the ugliest of them all. Overnight the futures hit a low of 2529 and are up over 60 points now with its' first strong bounce. There's still NO positive divergence yet so this first attempt should fail. Maybe this first strong rally will end up being some kind of wave 4 up and a wave 5 down happens tomorrow to make a double bottom, slightly lower or higher low. It's common these days to see truncated 5th waves, especially on the downside.

I think it's all about where all the stops are located at as SkyNet will hit those stops before it makes the next strong move, which in this case should be up. It's still anyone's guess if this recent high is "the high" for this year, but most think we'll see a higher high before year end. Will this entire move down just be some larger wave 4 down with a larger wave 5 up later in the year for that higher high, or will this entire drop only produce a lower high on its' next move up and then drop again later this year for a lower low? I wish I knew the answer. I think it will again depend on how many people get super bearish or not.

If they do then I'd say no lower low, but instead expect a higher high (a larger 5 wave up) before the next correction/crash. If people stay super bullish then look out below as we could see another "even deeper" flash crash later this summer. But for today I'd look for this strong rally up to be the "fake out" move as it should rollover later today or Wednesday to shake out those going long, and then Thursday we could see the real rally up start. Meaning I'd be looking for a low by the close Wednesday (higher or lower low from yesterday is unknown) that should set up the strong (wave 3 up of some degree maybe?) move up.

ES Morning Update February 5th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update February 5th 2018

What a crazy week we just had. With DOW crashing down 666 points on Friday one has to wonder if that's a signal to the insiders of another future crash coming like in 2007-2009. I can't answer that of course so there's not much point focusing on it. For today we should be carving out a bottom before a strong bounce. Everything is of course very short term oversold but longer term there's still more room to go down, so I'm ruling out another larger move down then this one come later this month or next.

I don't expect it right away as SkyNet will likely do its' strong rally up this week and then do the "shake'em out dance" where it swings wildly up and down for several weeks before picking the next directional move. It should be down of course but understand that if giving enough time the longer term overbought conditions can be worked off as sideways action will allow charts to at least drop to neutral or even oversold on some. The monthly chart will take much, much longer of course as it's still massively overbought. But the weekly and daily could get to neutral in a few weeks. So while we should see another larger drop I wouldn't hold my breath on it, as SkyNet does a wonderful job of manipulating the charts in favor of the bulls.

So if you missed that mini-crash (I did) then you are not alone. I'm a bear at heart but I know that the bull side is favored by those that run the market. So while the top might very well be in for a long time I wouldn't say it's in for the year. Higher prices are still likely before this year ends and this recent big drop is nothing more then a fast correction. I don't know if it's over with yet as I do think we should drop again later this month or next but for now I'd be looking for a strong bounce to start as early as tomorrow.

DOW down almost 666 points… does that ring a bell?

Red
-
0
DOW down almost 666 points… does that ring a bell?

Reminds me of March 6th, 2009 when the SPX hit a low of 666...

ES Morning Update February 2nd 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update February 2nd 2018

The futures have fallen again as the bears won't let the bulls breathe. I have to say it's been really hard trying to figure this market out as I was really expecting a strong bounce today from an inverted head and shoulders pattern that formed yesterday but now has clearly failed. The futures are now at the 38.2% retracement level and very oversold. There is a slight hook trying to form on the MACD's right now, and it did put in a higher low then the previous one. So positive divergence could be forming too if it turns back up after the open.

One thing for sure is that bulls are finally getting a taste of what the bears have been experiencing for the last two years. This move down looks like a nice clean ABC move as well so it might be ending here soon. I say "might" as I don't want to be try and be cute here as I've had a hard time recently predicting the next move. It's so rare to see a drop last this long that I'm sure many people were fooled too. I see it bouncing a little right now as I write this morning update as it was down over 20 points when I started. It must have been a reaction to the non-farm payroll report (now called "Employment Situation").

Looking over at the 6 hour chart it does NOT show any positive divergence, so a lower low is still possible in the coming future. I would not expect it too soon though as a multi-day or week bounce could happen, and is common before an even bigger drop. Meaning that if this indeed was the top (or a very important and long lasting one, but not necessarily the top for the year), then this first ABC move down could be just a larger A wave down, with a larger B wave up that could last all of next week as it shakes out both bulls and bears... then a larger C drop should happen to form the positive divergence on that 6 hour chart.

I can't believe I'm suggesting here that another larger drop is possible as this non-stop bull for the last 2 years has me brainwashed into thinking every small dip will be bought, but we are still very, very overbought on daily, weekly and monthly charts so a multi-week correction is likely here versus the typical buy the dip crap. Anyway, let's see if the market can bounce here afer the open and start that larger B wave up that should extend into next week easily. Have a great weekend and I hope you have had better success recently with the market then I have... LOL.

ES Morning Update February 1st 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update February 1st 2018

The bulls sure seem to be having a hard time getting going back up again as the futures were up around 10 points last night to now be down as much as 10 points. The bears have finally stepped up to the plate and are kicking some butt for once. I'm a little surprised actually as I thought this rally back up would have already started. Yesterday's FOMC meeting didn't produce much movement so I guess it's a non-event. This morning the bulls have an old rising trendline of support from 11/13/2017 that they seem to be resting on right now. The MACD's created positive divergence yesterday but now they are trying to form it again. This of course implies a lower low is still coming. Doesn't mean it's going to happen today but it certainly could.

My thought about today are mixed. I was wrong yesterday thinking we'd go back up and today I'm not feeling any better at calling the direction. There is NO positive divergence on the SPX 60 minute chart and technically it hasn't yet setup on this ES Futures 60 minute chart. Both say we have more down to come. But for today and probably tomorrow we could just see a tug of war between the bears and the bulls as they fight each other for the next big move. Looking at the SPX daily chart we are just a few points below the 10 day moving average and the 30 day moving average is around 2767, so that might be the next level the bears take us too? I still don't see that happening today or even tomorrow as this tug of war should continue a few more days.

But at some point we'll get the next big directional move and I have to say it's looking now like it's going to be down. It's hard to believe it will actually happen as it seems the bulls have been going up forever and just manipulate the charts every time they get bearish... meaning I'm still not getting overly excited on the short side as I just don't trust the bulls as far as I can throw them (not far of course, maybe an inch... LOL). Anyway, for today I just don't have anything clear... exactly how SkyNet loves to make it. So I'll make no forecast about today.

ES Morning Update January 31st 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 31st 2018

The bears sure slapped the bulls hard yesterday. I really wasn't expecting that big of a drop. I did think we'd dip below the 2840 area to clear out the bulls' stops but not down as low as 2818. However, we all know how overbought the market is so a larger move then expected is exactly what was needed to shake out some longs. Today we wait on the FOMC meeting and it's hard too know which way we will go next. On one hand we have a very clean looking bear flag formed now but we got so short term oversold yesterday that a move up is just as likely. As much as I lean toward the bear side as I know in my heart that this market is 100% rigged with fake earnings on companies, insider buying and selling and sector rotation, I have to also know that the bulls will likely win this battle again.

Does it mean for sure that the down move is over with? No, it just means that odds favor an up move after the FOMC meeting, but how high it goes is unknown. It could make a lower high into Friday for example and then next week we could see another move down. Or it could continue higher with a new all time high... but either way the odds favor the bulls today, both before and after the FOMC meeting. SkyNet doesn't usually give the bears a chance to wake up and join the party but instead does the entire move down super quick (like 2 days max) so the bears miss it all and chase the bottom. So for now I'm bullish and will try to buy any dip that happens around the 2pm meeting.

It's hard to do sometimes as those wild swings are very fast up and down. I'd love to see a fast move down to hit an old rising trendline around 2810 area right now, and then rip back up the rest of the day. But I wouldn't count on it. On the bigger picture though the daily chart of the SPX finally rolled over and (almost?) got a bearish cross on its' MACD's. Of course that implies that it will also turn back up at some point and make a lower high to setup negative divergence... which means the market will make a higher high while the MACD does the opposite. To me that could take several months to setup, or at least several weeks. It again implies that higher highs in the market are coming before some important top develops that allows a 10%+ correction.

ES Morning Update January 30th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 30th 2018

Well, the bears chose to take it down yesterday, which with today's gap down is a pretty good move in total. But I fear this is going to be a "sell the rumor, buy the news" event after the FOMC tomorrow. We are down in that range of support now that I spoke of on yesterday's post. It's pierced through the 2480 area a little to run the bulls stops I'd guess. If all goes as expected I'd think we'll see a bottom put in today and back up tomorrow after the FOMC meeting. You can see on this 6 hour chart of the ES Futures that the MACD's have fallen nicely and are approaching the zero area where turns back up are common. I say that I took this short as I really was 50/50 on the break of the rising green trendline yesterday. And there's the fact that the 6 hour MACD has gotten other bearish crosses recently that faked me out thinking this time it's going to break. That's when the bears get creamed shorting it expecting it to break, only to see it scream higher again. So now I'll be waiting for this to bottom today and/or tomorrow before the FOMC meeting so I can go long when everyone is super bearish again. I can't add much more then that as I spelled it out fairly well on yesterday's post.

ES Morning Update January 29th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 29th 2018

Finally seeing a little weakness this Monday morning but it's coming from a high that's far above support, so while this might look impressive it's still nothing for the bears to get excited about.  Major support is down at 2840 area of course but the 2855 prior highs and 2860 area from the rising yellow trendline will likely stop the move down today.  Tomorrow of course is another story, but what I think might end up happening is quick and short pullback down to that 2840 area going into the FOMC meeting and then back up afterwards.  Previously I thought it might be a turn down, but that would require going up into the meeting, or at least going sideways mostly with a slant upward.

This move down is too far in my opinion but not yet confirmed.  If the yellow rising trendline of support hold and we go back up tomorrow and/or Wednesday then it's still possible to have the turn down shortly after the meeting.  But if the trendline breaks before the meeting, then odds favor the meeting area becoming a turn back up, which then could push the market another 100 points or more higher.  You know how the market loves the "even numbers" levels to target, which right now the one just above is the 2900 level, and we've got as close as 2878 over the weekend.

Therefore I'd expect the 2900 level to be a no brainier for the next rally up after the FOMC should the market pullback in front of it.  It's really as simple as this... for the bears to take the market down 100 or more points they need the rising yellow trendline to hold and a continued up move into this Wednesday with a new all time high hit (ideally just a few points under or over 2900).  Or if we go down into the meeting we should turn back up afterwards and blow through 2900 and make a run for the even bigger and more powerful "even number" level of 3000 SPX.

It can really go either way at this point but the bears need to keep the market up the next few days to get it extremely overbought.  The bulls want to push it down to get work off the overbought conditions so it will be at least neutral or at best oversold (unlikely there).  On the 60 minute chart of the ES Futures the MACD's are already down to almost zero this morning from a +7.5 area high.  So they are neutral right now and a turn back up is likely before the close.

My guess is again that they will indeed turn up and ride the rising yellow trendline of support into the close.  It should then have everyone guessing as to whether it's a B wave up with the move down at the open the A wave... which suggests a C wave down tomorrow to break the yellow rising trendline.  If that happens it will likely kill the bears chance of a large 100+ point move down over the coming weeks as that 2840 area is probaby going to put in the low before another 100+ move up happens after the FOMC meeting.  So at the close bears really want to see the turn back up today continue tomorrow to make another all time high.  Will it happen this way or will the bears screw up and go for the tiny move down into Wednesday?  I'll be ready either ay with a great short from a new all time high right after the FOMC meeting or a long from the next bear squeeze.

ES Morning Update January 26th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 26th 2018

Looks like another rally this morning to open up the normal trading seession.  Will it hold or fold is the question?  It looks like a triple top on the futures so far and it's really do or die time for both the bulls and the bears.  If the bulls can't get through it today they risk falling down in some nasty wave come afterhours or over the weekend.... which leaves Monday as possibly gaping down.  The SPX 60 minute chart is also losing steam on the bullish side.  For the first time since this strong rally up started around the first of January I now see a bearish cross on that MACD... but it's just barely and with the expected strong open coming that could easily cross back to bullish again.  However, it's the first sign of weakness on the bulls part and that is important.

The Histogram bars have fallen below the zero line for the first time since the rally started as well.  It's been a super strong move up from the first of the month but it's looking tired.  It can still go higher of course but cracks are showing now.  This again leads to believe that the FOMC meeting next week will be a "turning zone", where it might not happen in front of the meeting but should after the meeting (give or take a few days).  If the bears can hold this triple top today they stand a chance I think of pushing it down to that prior support zone around 2800 but if the bulls breakthrough today then the current 2840 area will be solid support and tough to break if the bears ever get a move down started.

From looking at various chart time frames it looks more to me like a sideways trading range is going to form and hold for awhile until overbought charts can be reset.  This assumes nothing much comes out of the FOMC meeting.  If something does come out that is looked out negatively then we should start a 1-3 week correction.  If not... then I'd expect rangebound for a similar period.  The range however isn't formed as I do think it will be wider then the current 2830-2850 area.  Possibly it will reach down to 2800 and up to the current 2850 area high?  Again it's unknown currently.  If we have a correction instead then I'd look for 5-10% max, but probably only 3%-5% on this first correction in a long, long time.  That would be about 85 points down to 143 points if the top is 2855.

Again, it's all about getting that turn down started with some negative news... otherwise we are more likely to be trapped in a trading range for awhile and there'll be no correction as when the trade range ends the bull market should continue.  For today though my thoughts are that the current triple top will hold and we'll drift back down into the 2840 area of support where we'll be mostly rangebound until the close.

ES Morning Update January 25th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 25th 2018

Well, the bulls finally lost the rising green trendline of support.  But the sideways action from the 22nd this week has only formed a tight trading range from the high to the low yesterday.  Today's challenge is for the bulls to make yet another higher high on the backside of that rising green trendline.  And from the looks of the MACD's they will have an excellent chance at doing so.  The move down yesterday did weaken the bulls a little but overall it's still a bullish market.  It's looking more and more like the next "possible" turn period will be around the FOMC meeting next week.  But while in the old days we would see it have a bullish close about 80% of the time that day, (then the next day would turn down), we haven't seen that happen much in the last year or so.  It's become "almost" a non-event lately as everyone knows well in advance what's going to be said at the meeting so it's no big surprise, and therefore no big reaction in the market.

Anyway, for today it looks bullish to me but it's still very overbought on many time frames.  It's hard to chase a market so overbought and every time you see a pullback you think it's finally going to rollover and do at least an ABC move down, but instead it's just one fast wave down that ends and then it's back to the bullish trend.  Nothing new here gang, just more of the same ol' never ending trend upwards to the moon.  The MACD on the 6 hour chart (not shown) is trying to curl back up as well, which should add support for this 60 minute MACD pointing up this morning.  Odds are good for a new all time high again today so I'd be shocked if it didn't happen.  I don't have any more to say as again it looks bullish right now.  Anything can change by the close, so if it peaks out and rolls over I'd look for that 2840 area now as support and the new yellow rising trendline I just drew.

ES Morning Update January 24th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 24th 2018

Well... it shouldn't be any surprise to anyone when I say the market is up again this morning. I've never seen a market that just goes up forever but now I have. The 60 minute MACD's have turned back up as expected and are now around +2.0 from turning around +1.0, but were as high as +7.0 on Monday. This move up on them should not reach that high of course but should make a lower high and setup negative divergence. The problem with the negative divergence lately has been that the market doesn't rollover from them but just chops sideways until getting oversold and then continues higher again.

Very frustrating to try to trade something as no one wants to buy at the top but instead wants a dip to go long on... and it's just not happening. SkyNet isn't giving traders dips and is forcing them to chase it higher or go to the sidelines... which I'm sure many have done. Right now there's just no signs of any pullback as charts have been reset from overbought to neutral or oversold on the short term. And the rising green trendline continues to support the market and keep pushing it higher. Anyway, any bearish align that was possible in forming yesterday has been kicked to the curb this morning.

Until that rising green trendline of support breaks to setup the first small move down, and the small move back up fails to make a higher high (meaning an A wave down and B up) there's just no trades here except chasing the top. Maybe it will see something change after the FOMC meeting next week? Until then bears need to stay asleep it seems.

ES Morning Update January 23rd 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 23rd 2018

We've hit a high afterhours of 2842 on the ES Futures, which is in a range that many people see as resistance.  It's possible that we could see the start of a pullback today, but first we'd need to see the rising green trendline of support break with some conviction.  If it happens I'd look for the 2800-2810 area for support, but I'd still expect another move back up from that level to happen... and it might make another higher high?  It's just too early now to be super confident.  We have the 60 minute MACD coming down from very overbought at +7.0 to just above +1.0 right now, so if the bulls can hold the price level sideways today that MACD will become oversold before the close and likely prevent the down move from happening.

The bears best hope is to see either that rising green trendline break early in the day or a turn back up on both the price level and the MACD's for another higher high in the price by the close and a lower high on the MACD's... which would setup tomorrow for the likely move down.  The only thing for sure is that bulls are getting weaker as daily, weekly and monthly charts are all up in super overbought territory now.  I've never seen the daily MACD on the SPX so high as it is right now... and the monthly is insane!

Let's face it, at this point we don't even have any sideways trading range formed yet... which is common before a pullback.  We are still in a solid and strong uptrend, which tells me that any pullback here will be bought back up.  The only way to get a good long lasting down move is for some choppy action at the top that keeps the market rangebound for a few days, which then we'd still need the last move up to fail to make a higher high and setup a big drop.  Right now we keep making higher highs after any short term consolidation period.  We've had two periods like that since the run up start the first of January but after each one the market made a higher high and kept going higher there afterwards.

Anyway, my thoughts for today are simple... no sign yet of a breakdown.  We are probably very close but I'd rather not be the first guy to jump off the cliff into the cold water.  Let someone else do it first and if he says it's safe I'll follow.  LOL.  One more thing, there is an FOMC meeting on the 31st, so if the market can start to form some sideways trading range within a few days of the meeting we could see some "pop and drop" after the meeting.  Just food for thought...

ES Morning Update January 22nd 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 22nd 2018

Short update this morning.  Looking at the 6 hour MACD's this morning on the ES Futures it's fallen down to a level where it has turned back up in the past.  This bull market has been super strong as we all know and while other turns back up came around the zero area this current move up from the first of January has only fell to the +7.5 before turning up again... a very strong bull indeed.  From the looks of it we should see a turn back up soon if it's going to play out like it did in the past.  It looks like it wants another push higher to me, so I'll just be waiting and watching for some weakness to show up in the charts and well as some exhaustion move higher.  Right now I just don't see it topped yet but it could come anytime this week.  Until then the ball is still in the bulls' hands.

ES Morning Update January 19th 2018

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update January 19th 2018

The futures are basically flat this morning and they are outside my rising green trendline of support.  It could be a little tight on my drawing of it but the bottom line is that the futures are either dancing on the line or have already lost it and back-tested it... therefore the market is weak this morning.  Looking at the SPX 60 minute chart and it too looks ready for a pullback as both MACD's and Histogram bars are weak.  But with today being Friday, and the monthly option expiration day, we might not see much action on the up or downside as market makers play their games to pin the SPY whether it makes the most options expire worthless.

From a technical point of view we should rollover today and drop nicely but manipulation usually overrules it.  Other stocks that usually rally with the market, like the FAANG's (as they are the leaders) have been weak as well.  This could mean nothing as possibly they are all waiting for the outcome of the government shutdown this coming Friday night at midnight, as if an extension isn't reached we could see some panic selling Monday morning, or if one is reached (most likely) then stocks will resume their normal trends.  Not much more to add about today.

My gut tells me to wait until early next week to see what happens as odds just don't favor some government shutdown this weekend and big drop on Monday.  I feel like that if the main stream media (aka, the "fake news") is out there pumping fear about it causing a crash then just the opposite is likely to happen... which is just a continue move with the trend.  That doesn't mean another huge leg up in the market.  Yeah, it's possible but not likely.  I don't think it's got too much further to go on the upside before a nice correction starts.  We also have an FOMC meeting on the 31st, so that's something to be watching and turns in the market are common within a few days after a meeting.

Anyway, my thoughts for today are more chop as they pin the market where they make the most money.  If the bulls just hold everything in place today the SPX can work off a lot of the short term overbought conditions and allow for a pop higher on Monday, but again... I'm not expecting some huge rally.  I do feel it's on it's final legs up and any good news over the weekend should be used to squeeze out the bears Monday with some fast rally up that I don't think will hold past Tuesday.  Meaning we could see a top either day, but I don't see one today.  In the past I would have fell for this negative news about a government shutdown and went short over the weekend expecting a huge drop on Monday, but today I know (never really know, but odds favor it) that the more negative the news the less likely the event will happen.  Have a great weekend everyone.

1...515253...135Page 52 of 135

© Copyright - Red Dragon Leo

s2Member®