Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Home Blog Page 56

ES Morning Update October 16th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update October 16th 2017

Looking at the 6 hour chart this morning its' looking bullish to me.  The MACD is about to cross back up positive after flat-lining in the +2.5 area for several day.  Of course it could also be tired from many days sideways without a successful turn back up, so it could rollover too.  But, it's well known that the market is rigged for the bulls.  So when you see bullish setups, like bull flags, inverted head and shoulders, cup and handle patterns and a MACD getting close to crossing back into positive you have to think that odds favor them working out 90% of the time.

On the flip side I doubt if they work out 50% of the time for bears.  Now, that doesn't mean I would go long up here.  I think this market is super stretched to the upside and needs a pullback soon.  But this bullish cross on the MACD could support another 10-20 move higher before getting tired again.  You can also see that it's really close to the lower blue rising trendline of the rising channel now.  That should act as support for it to bounce off of if it plans on going higher.  Failure here would be bad for the bulls as it would allow a nice 20 or more point pullback.  I'd like to think it would allow more but the buy the dipper gang probably won't allow it.

I personally don't see much support on the downside until 2490-2505 but I seriously doubt if we drop that far on the first break of that rising blue trendline of support.  Since these are 6 hours bars it could drag out another 1-2 bars before touching the line, which puts us into Tuesday.  So today could be a sideways day until the bulls decide if they have enough mojo to muster up another 10-20 points or if they want to pass the ball over to the bears for a small pullback.  Odds favor the bulls as they are the chosen team but it's not clear which way we are going today.  Since it's a Monday and the bulls have around 1-2 more candles until hitting that blue trendline my thoughts are that they will go sideways again to up.

The strength of the up part should give us clues to how strong or weak they really are.  If slow on the move up, meaning more of the same old grind, then it's weakness... and that will lead to a pullback at some point this week.  If strength is shown by the bulls then we might only see more sideways trading after a fast 10-20 point move up, which just builds a base for another launch higher at some future date.  My thoughts... we'll grind up slowly and then pullback fast but not too deep, thus making a week full of some action for a change.  But I doubt if we see 2500 this week... next week, who knows?

ES Morning Update October 13th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update October 13th 2017

The futures are up a little this morning in what looks like it "could" be the squeeze higher I've been looking for?  If we tag on another 10-20 points and reverse then today might be similar to 8/8/17, but if it holds all day long into the close then it might be pushed out until Monday.  So we are looking for top today or Monday I think as everything is setting up nicely now to complete wave 5's of various degrees.  This 6 hour chart shows a MACD that is curling back up this morning, but I don't expect it to race up to +7.5 area again.  It should instead put in a lower high, and since it's a 6 hour chart this could drag out over the weekend and into Monday before rolling back over.  It's hard to chase this up but it's just as hard to short it too early.  No doubt the bulls climb a wall of worry as each day they gain a few more inches as the bears can barely pull them back one inch from time to time.  Short update for today. I'm looking for a slow grind up all day that holds until the close and most likely carries over into Monday.  Kinda pointless calling levels but the norm is 10-20 up with a bullish setup like we have currently.  Have a great weekend and look for a top on Monday (possibly Tuesday, but low odds) and then pullback to 2500 area would be my best guess.

ES Morning Update October 12th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update October 12th 2017

Some weakness this morning but I still don't think the bulls are ready to give up just yet. I'd like to see some exhaustion type squeeze up before I think we'll rollover... kinda like the 8/8 pop and drop. Now it doesn't have to happen in the morning via a gap up (which would be preferred), but I do think we need one to show up. Maybe it comes from a slow grind up into the close today or Friday? Either way I do think it's coming as the longer we chop sideways the better defined the bull flag is... but if it doesn't pop soon it could produce a failed bull flag and just drop hard. I'd give it until tomorrow to see if it's going to play out or not. We all know how rigged the market is in favor of the bulls so I do expect it to work again. Other the that I don't see much clues in the charts for the direction today. They look bearish here on this 6 hour chart but we are still trading sideways in a tight range, so until we breakout one direction or the other it's just a flip of a coin here. My thoughts are still that we are close to a top before a nice pullback happens, but whether that is today or not is just not something I know the answer too? I would like to see that pop of 10-20 points higher as I think that would kill the last bear, but it's not looking likely for today. I'll end it here as I've said everything there is to say now in the prior posts. A top is near, like within days I think, but nailing it exactly is really hard.

Goldman Sachs considers trading bitcoin & other cryptocurrencies

Red
-
0
Goldman Sachs considers trading bitcoin & other cryptocurrencies

A new trading operation dedicated to digital currencies is being explored by Goldman Sachs, sources told the Wall Street Journal. It could be the first blue-chip Wall Street firm to deal directly in the growing yet controversial cryptocurrency market.

“In response to client interest in digital currencies, we are exploring how best to serve them in this space,” said an unnamed Goldman spokeswoman.

According to people familiar with the matter, Goldman’s effort involves both its currency trading division and the bank’s strategic investment group. The firm sees bitcoin’s future more as a payment method rather than a store of value.

Sources also said Goldman’s effort is in its early stages and may not proceed. The firm’s interest, however, could strengthen bitcoin’s position as digital currencies were initially viewed as havens for illicit activity.

Big banks such as UBS, Barclays, ING, Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon have recently announced ventures into the blockchain technology that allows digital currencies to function and be transferred safely.

BNP Paribas has said it is looking to add bitcoin to one of its currency funds and has been doing "beta testing" involving the cryptocurrency.

Societe Generale and JPMorgan even published job offers for an IT developer and technician on bitcoin, blockchains, and cryptocurrencies.

Morgan Stanley Chief Executive James Gorman said bitcoin is “obviously highly speculative, but it’s not inherently bad.”

According to research firm Autonomous NEXT, around 70 hedge funds are currently investing in cryptocurrencies.

Control over virtual currencies’ trading platforms has been tightened recently to prevent them from becoming money laundering sites.

Last month, Chinese authorities cracked down on cryptocurrencies, ordering the country’s exchanges to suspend operations. Beijing banned initial coin offerings (ICOs), referring to them as an unauthorized fundraising tool that may involve financial scams.

The move was followed by South Korea, with the country’s financial regulator saying it will ban money raising through all forms of virtual currencies.

In July, the US Securities and Exchange Commission warned that some ICOs should be regulated like other securities. Authorities in Singapore and Canada have issued similar warnings.

ES Morning Update October 11th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update October 11th 2017

Another day of the same... just waiting on the Fed it seems.  I think we are super close to a top and few nice pullback, meaning a multi-day one.  On the bull side I think they could muster up another 10-20 point on the upside if some positive news comes out from either the FOMC meeting or the tax reform bill that Trump is pushing.  Remember, the market has already built an interest rate hike for this December and the tax reform being successful.  If either of those fail I think we'll see a good correction.  If both fail... it could get bloody!

For today though I'll look to add more shorts if I think the setup is right.  For that to happen I'd like to see a muted reaction from the meeting or a fast spike higher that falls back down fast but still closes green for the day.  Meaning if it kept falling and closed red I wouldn't add to my shorts but look for a bounce back up on Thursday to close green.  I'd rather close green today with a small move up that should be an exhaustion move.  It's tricky as we don't want any news to be too positive or else it's momentum will carry over into Thursday.  Best to just have a "nothing" reaction and move up a hair to close a few points positive.  Then tomorrow let everything settle in with traders so they can come to the conclusion that they sell as we are too overbought this high up to hold it without some kind of pullback.

ES Morning Update October 10th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update October 10th 2017

Futures this morning are up slightly but still act like they are waiting on the FOMC minutes tomorrow.  We might see another squeeze higher if the various time frames on both the ES Futures and SPX Index get in-sync together.  When I look at the 6 hour chart on the futures it still has the bearish cross from previously and a wide distance between the two MACD lines. But it's at a point where it "could" turn back up and make a negative divergence by putting in a lower high tomorrow on it while putting a higher high in the actual price of the futures.  Now at this level of being so overbought I'm just not expecting too much more left for the bulls.

They are expecting the Fed's to raise rates in December and have priced that into the market.  So, all that needs to be said is some comment tomorrow from Janet Yellen that just gives traders the slightest idea that the Fed's might not raise those rates after-all.  Do that and you'll see some selling start, and heavy selling most likely.  Naturally I don't know if that's what Yellen is going to do but just keep in mind that any small shock too this market could cause a fast drop as traders are just too bullish right now.

This market reminds me of the mid-late August period of 2015, and there was a Fed meeting back then too. It was on August 19th, and I remember how the market rallied sharply right at the 2-2:30 pm time period around the release of the minutes of the meeting.  It had already put in a high for that week on Tuesday but came close on that spike rally to double topping it.  Then it reversed back down and closed red for the day... something unusual for an FOMC day.  Of course you know what happened the next 3 trading days.  Now I'm not saying I expect a repeat of that but this market "feels" like that time period and has similar setups.  Some differences are that they did the Fed meeting back then on the 3rd week of the month where the monthly options expiration was, and this time it's being done a week before the monthly expiration.

Also note that tomorrow is an "eleven" day and we all know how the elite like that number.  It's used in many rituals, in fact it was used for the recent Vegas shooting ritual where they did it on a 111 day (10th month is a One as you drop the zero, then 1st day of the month is a one and lastly we are in a 10 year as 2+0+1+7=10 and that is one as well).  So "if" they plan on doing something to spook the market they have the right day setup for the ritual.  I'm looking for more number codes in the high/low and open/close of the DOW, SPX, SPY, etc... for that day or today as well.  A nice 22,777 close on the DOW today or tomorrow would be a great code from them... not saying they will do that, but I am looking for signals now as we are clearly close to a pullback of some degree.  Whether that's a full blown mini-crash, real crash or just a nice drop is unknown... but I do expect an important top around this meeting.

For today it's not clear of the direction.  It looks like we could rollover later in the day and close slightly red versus opening up this morning slightly green.  I wouldn't bet on it just yet as we are still in the zone where that fast and final squeeze higher could happen.  I'm just waiting until the end of the day to see if we rally and squeeze out the bears or trade mostly sideways and leave the fast move up for the actual release of the minutes tomorrow around 2-2:30 pm where Janet might say something to cause the reaction.  Again though, I do not think the Fed's will raise rates in December and I think that will be the cause of the large drop in the market.  Now "when" that news comes out (assuming I'm correct?) is still just a guessing game.  I'm guessing it will be leaked (on purpose of course) sometime this month versus November, and that the selling is about to start later this week and pick up steam as we go deeper into the end of October.

ES Morning Update October 9th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update October 9th 2017

I'm not expecting much today as it's Columbus day here in America so while the stock market is open I'd think we'll still have little trading going on as the bond market and banks are closed.  So, hopefully the bulls can just hold the pig up and get more overbought so the bears can take control this Wednesday or Thursday.  We do have another FOMC day this Wednesday but it's only the reading of the minutes from the September meeting.  However, sometimes the market still waits to see if Yellen with add something else that will let traders know how to best position themselves.

Right now traders are all long expecting a rate hike in December, but if that doesn't happen and it's already "priced in" (which it is) then traders will see the economy as weak and dump the market.  But that meeting is still awhile away so unless word leaks out this Wednesday we might still only see small pullbacks and then more up until we get closer.  But that's too far out to speculate on right.  For this week let's just look for a top on Wednesday or Thursday I believe.  But today and tomorrow we might just chop around more as traders again wait like pigeons outside a restaurant for crumb drops from Janet Yellen.

ES Morning Update October 6th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update October 6th 2017

Ok, from the looks of the charts we should get our first small pullback today.  Both the 6 hour chart and 2 hour chart show MACD's rolling over with the 6 hour MACD just starting and the 2 hour already started.  Now since it's common to see a turn back up on 60 minute MACD around the time it gets to the zero level we could see happen within an hour or two of the open.  But, the downward pressure from the larger time frames should keep the turn back up small and not allow the price to run up to another higher high.  What I'd expect is a small bounce in the morning that struggles all day to keep from falling more.  Then later in the day I think we'll rollover again and go lower.  How far you ask?  I don't see much more then 10-20 points, so I'd look for support to hold in the 2530-2535 area.  There's also the rising blue trendline from the old channel that should give some support.  It could be the area where we first turn back up and ride it all day until finally rolling back down later today?  Too hard to say for sure as there will be dip buyers come in to keep this move down small.  But they should only see a lower high on the bounce and get taken back out on the second move back down later in the day.

So, what about next week?  Well, if today does as I expect and close down a little then we should rally back up on Monday again.  Does it have to make a higher high?  No, I don't believe it does.  But it could for sure but I don't think it will matter either way as next week we should start the pullback that should first retest the 2500 level and probably bounce around there for awhile and then break to go fill that 2462 gap.  But bear in mind that the 2500 level will be hard to give up, and it might dance on it for another week before breaking... but I do think it breaks.  Next week we should see the bulls put in another slightly higher high on Monday or fail and just double top it or lower high.  But that top should last for awhile as we go into mid-October and beyond.  I'm not saying it's going to be the final all time high as there's just no way to know that right now.  The monthly chart suggests we go much higher, like maybe SPX 2700-3000 or more?  But that doesn't mean we go straight up.  We are overdue for a pullback and it should turn into a nice correction of at least 5-7%, if not more.  This should happen in October and/or November, and then after that we should resume the bull market until they finally top out in 2018 sometime is my best guess.

For now though I'm just trying to catch the correction and I do think it will start next week.  We just need to see this tiny pullback today and one more move back up Monday or Tuesday... call it an "exhaustion" move.  Whether it's a lower high, higher high or double top is no important in my opinion.  Whatever it is I think it will mark the last move by the bulls before a correction starts.  Naturally the correction could take weeks or more but with 3 flash crashes in 2016 and 1 flash crash in 2015 I wouldn't be surprised either if the move was fast and surprised everyone.

Again, I'm not saying that I'm expecting another flash crash as I just don't know.  But, the market is certainly setting the stage up for one... that's for sure.  Extremely low buying volume, bearish three months of the year, and pre-pricing in an interest rate hike for December spells a house built on sand too me.  Plus there's Crazy Kim in North Korea that could do more missile tests starting next week on the 10th, so there's plenty of things that could blow this house over.  Anyway, for today I'm looking for an early pullback of 1-2 hours, then a bounce that should be weak and should fail later today and roll back over.  Have a great weekend.

ES Morning Update October 5th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update October 5th 2017

Not much to add from yesterdays' post and the day before that and the before that and etc...   The futures are still climbing a inch at a time day after day and repeating the same pattern of sideways to slightly up throughout the day.  Until Bill Murray can get it right and break this cycle we remain repeating Groundhog day again and again.

However, there is some hope for the bears as seen on this 6 hour chart of the ES Futures.  You'll notice we know have a bearish cross on the MACD's, and while that's no guarantee we are going to go down in price it usually puts a cap on the bulls going up much further.  So sideways to slightly down should be the plan for today and at least Friday.  You can look back at prior times when there was a bearish cross and you'll see about 6-10 candles of sideways action and one time the price just rolled over and dropped 30 points or so.

Will we get a big drop from it or a sideways move is unknown, but I think we'll go sideways first and do the big drop next week.  But, after the sideways action there still could be one more day up where they "pop and drop", so don't panic if you see it as it's very likely a fake out (this only applies as long as we have that bearish cross and a MACD that is dropping lower).  Considering tomorrow is the end of this week we might see some small selling from traders that don't want to hold long over the weekend.

So it might close down a little tomorrow, or early down and back to flat or small green at the close.  This would be the ideal situation for the bears as it would set Monday up as a possible gap down day.  Right now my gut thinks Monday won't be much of anything and we'll start down on Tuesday.  This move down coming next week is the one I think will fill the gap around 2462 on the futures.  But I'm getting ahead of myself so let's get back to today.  I see more of the same small movement all day, mostly sideways.

ES Morning Update October 4th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update October 4th 2017

This morning we finally see the futures pulling back just a little, but I wouldn't expect too much downside today as the MACD's are already at the zero line and could turn back up anytime.  Plus this first pullback will be bought up most likely by the bulls that missed the rally up.  And it's probably some tiny wave 4 down in elloittwave terms, meaning there's another move up for the tiny wave 5 still yet to come.  So while the bears can rest a minute here as the bulls stop their attack there's not likely anything going to happen today for the bears to start jumping for joy about.  What I'd like to see is a 10-15 point down move followed by a 7-12 point rally back up into the close to make a lower high.  Then I might get excited about a bigger drop starting on Thursday.

But for today I'd just like to see some weakness, and 3 points isn't going to cut it.  Sadly though I just don't see much more then happening today.  Wanting 10-15 points down is just that... wanting!  More then likely the move down will be very small and at some point later today I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't turn back up and go positive with a higher high.  Yeah, it's getting old seeing the market grind up everyday but that's how they put the bears to sleep.  Only then will we top out and see a nice move back down.  So are the bears sleep right now?  Who knows?  I know I'm barely awake so we must be close.  Anyway, I don't see much in the charts to suggest a strong down or up move today.  Looks like down early and maybe back up later when the MACD starts hooking back up.  All in all it's probably going to be another boring day.

ES Morning Update October 3rd 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update October 3rd 2017

Yesterday I thought we would chop sideways to slightly down with that premarket high holding but the bulls didn't listen to me and took out that early high and went even higher.  I guess it's hard to win against a FED fed bulls... say that really fast 3 times!  Yeah, I know... the FED said that the QE officially ended in September, but you really believe anything they say?  I sure don't.

Anyway, the futures are up again a little this premarket session for Tuesday.  But we are finally showing some signs of weakness, specifically on this 6 hour chart where you can see the MACD's up around +7.5 again just like on 9/1... which produced a nice 30 point pullback shortly afterwards.  If you look closely at those candles you'll see two small white ones and then a larger white one that ended the move up and then the next candle turned red with a medium topping tail on it.  I think we are about where the two small white candles are right now, which suggests that we'll see that longer white candle and the first red one afterhours today, premarket tomorrow and maybe even that pop and drop that made the first red candle that started the move down.

Basically it means we could see the futures up higher afterhours tonight to take out the bears' stops and open tomorrow up again but rollover at some point to make that first red candle.  Bulls should just see it as a "buy the dip" moment but it should carry over into the next day (Thursday) to make all the other red candles that are the bulk of the 30 point move down.  Of course it rallied back up on that last red candle and put in a long bottoming tail, which could happen again as 30 points down from the current high is around the 2500 level, and we all know the bulls will defend that level if hit.

But will the pattern repeat and the bounce from 2500 produce another 83+ point rally like it did back then?  I wish I knew the answer there but I don't?  However, odds suggests it won't and will instead just put in a lower high on that bounce but we are getting ahead of ourselves so let's just focus on today for now.  Yesterday was more of a sideways to slightly up, but I think today will be more sideways all day, leaving the "up part" until afterhours.  I mean it is a nice bull flag they are building here, and we know that bull flags work 80-90% of the time... right?  Bear flags are 50/50 at best as FED just hates to see the market go down and will keep buying it to prevent any serious damage... at least until they want the serious damage I guess?  Anyway, that's what I'm expecting for today... more flat (maybe a dip into the red small but back up later) and then up afterhours into tomorrow morning where I think we'll see the final high for this move and then a 30 point or so pullback start.

ES Morning Update October 2nd 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update October 2nd 2017

The bulls are still charging this Monday morning, but not by much.  This 60 minute chart suggests they will pause here and drift down some today, although it might not be much as the 6 hour chart (not shown) shows a MACD that's still pointing up nicely with no signs of rolling over yet.  But for today this 2523.50 premarket high might just put a cap on the bulls while the MACD's on this 60 minute chart rollover and then curl back up to put a negative divergence on them.  I'm guessing that we'll pullback small into late today or Tuesday and then try again to go up higher.  Now whether it succeeds or not is unknown?  Many others are looking for 2550 area, which could indeed be hit but I can't really see too far past today and a little of tomorrow... at least not with the current setup in the various charts I look at.

The SPX cash index has a daily rising trendline (not shown) starting back in March of 2017 that had 3 connecting points (higher highs where it hit the trendline) and the 4th hit was last Friday... and it looks like it's going to hit it again at this mornings' open.  Obviously the trendline is always rising and can support higher hits on it as time goes by, but for right now it has been hit and should put a lid on the rally for today at least.  What appears to be "in the charts" is suggesting that we'll pullback a little today/tomorrow and back up Tuesday or Wednesday to "try" and make another higher high.  At some point the bulls should fail on that attempt and allow a deep pullback that should fill that 2462 area gap.  Whether we see this happen this week or next is still unknown?

I'm overly shocked at how much time has already passed with it being "not filled", but I can only guess that too many other traders see the same thing and keep shorting every inch higher which gives the bulls the fuel needed to climb another inch.  And if they do get up to 2550 area like many other see as top before a decent pullback then I'd have to think most bears will have capitulated by then which should finally let the move down start.

On another note, the last minute surge higher on Friday had to be a Fed manipulation move as the volume during that move on the SPY was extremely high.  When I look at the volume on an hourly chart it averaged between 3.5 and 5.0 million and that last hour showed at 16.6 and 25.5 million jump, or about 42 million in total.  The previous times where I see over 25 million in a one hour period was on 8/17 going into the close, 8/10 going into the close and 6/9 going into the close.  All three of those periods the market hit a low as the bulls capitulated but this time we hit a high... did the bears finally throw in the towel this time?

Heavy volume usually marks capitulation by someone, and it's usually on a down move as all bulls get stopped out.  But it happens on up moves too and we might have seen the bears give up this time?  It's still too early to know for certain but odds favor a turn back down happening within a few days as it did with all 3 of those dates in the past... meaning a low was end either that day or within a few days later.  And, the move down lower was very small compared to the high volume move down that took out the bulls.  Any for today I don't see a lot of action but I do think the premarket high will hold all day.  If we start drifting down I'd look for the rising lower blue trendline as support of the rising channel.  Also the sideways area around 2506 from Friday will be support, which is almost at the lower rising blue trendline as well.

ES Morning Update September 29th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update September 29th 2017

I've drawn two rising blue trendlines as the futures seem to be in a rising channel now. Yesterdays' lower high suggests it might have been some kind of A wave down from the top Wednesday and B wave up for that lower high yesterday. This suggests a C wave down is coming next, but whether that happens today or Monday is unknown. If it happens it should break the rising channel in blue and head for the falling black trendline pointing to 2495 or so. Considering that today is a Friday and that it's the last trading day of September they might just hold it in place until Monday. Looking at this 2 hour chart of the ES Futures the MACD's have rolled back over but act more like they want to go sideways for awhile before picking the next direction. On the 6 hour chart it's still rising up with no negative cross on its' MACD's, which is supporting this 2 hour MACD and allowing it to hold its' ground even with that bearish cross.

Over on the SPX Cash Index its' MACD's are making a similar pattern to the 8/8 high and then drop. But whether we have already had our fast up move and then drop this past Wednesday (9/27) or not is still unknown? If we did then the "drop" part has been delayed it appears and might not show up until Monday from the looks of this mornings flat premarket. I think at this point they could go either way with calling the 9/27 pop equal to the 8/8 pop or they could pop it one more time on Monday. I just don't know at this point. If we break the blue rising channel today then I'd think the 9/27 high is it, but if we stay in the channel then there's still a chance for another pop higher on Monday and then a drop.

It's really been a hard few weeks lately as the bulls just won't give up even an inch of ground. If they take off to the upside hard from here toward 2600 it would be the first time I've ever seen them leave a gap open on the futures as ever one I've noticed got filled within a week or two at most. This is now the 3rd week of it being unfilled, so that's pretty rare I think. Gaps on the futures themselves are rare as most all the gaps are on the SPX, not the futures. Anyway, I still think we'll see that gap filled well before 2600 or some other crazy rally high... but the "when" part is still a mystery to me. Have a great weekend.

ES Morning Update September 28th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update September 28th 2017

Today we'll look back again at the 6 hour chart and we see now that the MACD's did turn up as expected and are now hitting the blue falling trendline that I drew several posts back.  It's now creating triple negative divergence and looking like it is going to roll back over again.  We had the higher high yesterday so that makes the triple divergence completed if we do rollover today or tomorrow.  Naturally we could still have one more fakeout move up to make another higher high, but my guess is that all we'll see today is a small move back up to make a lower high, which then sets up Friday or Monday for another move down... and this time is should break the 2485 support probably tag the 2472-2475 area, if not the gap fill at 2462.

But today looks to be a sideways to up day as the bulls try to hold on to the ground they gained yesterday.  The bulls are quite stubborn and rarely do what is best for them.  Like today they should pullback to that 2495 area where the falling black trendline is pointing to toward the end of the day.  That would work off some of the overbought conditions and allow for another attempted higher high rally to start on Friday.  However, my bet is the bulls won't give up that much ground and will instead try to rally from where they are right now, while still very overbought.  That of course sets up the bears to take over as the bulls should be completely exhausted by the end of today if they keep this market up and close green by a hair.  They really should allow a pullback to rest up today and rally back tomorrow, but I just don't think they will like that happen.  They will use every last breath today to close green and to try to make another higher high, which might happen but odds don't favor it.  Even if they do get another higher high today the charts are turning too bearish now for them to hold it into tomorrow.

A pullback is coming very soon, probably Friday... but could be pushed out until Monday as we know how they love to trick everyone over the weekend when the market is closed.  For the bears it would be better if they held the market in place on Friday and gaped down on Monday as all the bulls would be trapped and the pullback would be deeper.  If they drop it too hard on Friday then bears will short into Monday and limited the downside for next week.  My thoughts here are that the bulls will hold it up today and drift lower into the black falling trendline pointing to just above 2495 today.  That wouldn't be too bearish for the bears to wake up and get short and would probably lure in some more bulls to "buy the dip" like they love to do.  So if you are a bear, then root for a slightly green close today and a small move down tomorrow.

ES Morning Update September 27th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update September 27th 2017

Looks like the bulls are running this morning, but will they put in a new all time high again, or fall short with just a lower high?  Only time will tell I guess, but odds don't favor today being very bullish for them.  I fully expect this move up to end within the first hour or so and for it to rollover and close red for the day.  By how much is not known but I wouldn't be surprised if fell steady all day and closed at the low.

When you look at the down move from the current high last week to the low at 2485 you can see 3 waves, or an ABC pattern.  On this move up I can count 5 small waves.  Now, if we fall to make a new high today then the 3 waves down was probably a bigger A wave of some degree and the 5 waves up a bigger B wave, leaving a bigger C wave down to follow next... which should start today and possibly carry into tomorrow.  It should take out the 2485 low which doesn't leave any support until the 2472-2475 area and then gap fill around 2462.  I don't know if it will get that low or not but this rally up should weaken within the first hour or so and rollover.  From there I don't know how far down we'll go but we should be going down later today.

It's a very tricky market up here at these highs and I know everything feels like we are going to breakout and rally hard, but what I see in the charts doesn't not support that.  Naturally I could be reading them wrong or if I right they just get manipulated by the SkyNet, but I don't think they will this time.  I feel like there's more longs in the market right now then shorts but I have know way of knowing that for sure of course.  It's kinda based on the "feelings" that I current have in my gut that is saying to me... it's going to breakout, go long!  And I know that's the opposite of what I should do as that feeling is coming from the fear area of my stomach and it's the one that SkyNet preys on for the sheep to get on the wrong side of the trade all the time.  My logical thinking compares the current chart setup to previous ones and it tells me this move up will fad and rollover today.  So, let's see if that gut feeling from the fear area or my logical thinking is correct today.

ES Morning Update September 26th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update September 26th 2017

This morning we are going to look at the 6 hour chart where we see a nice turn back up forming.  I've drawn a blue falling trendline on the prior highs to point out the negative divergence that is current there.  This suggests a higher high is next as the MACD rise up to that blue trendline.  Naturally there's no guarantee that we are going to make a higher high as sometimes 5th waves (which is the wave I think it is) will fall short and truncate.  But with all the bears right above the current all time high we might see a stop run on them of 10-20 points.  Yesterday I said there was little chance of a new high but today things are different as there is now an opportunity for the bulls to rally this up to over 2507... maybe hitting 2510-2520 before stopping?  A failure here for the bulls would setup a great opportunity for the bears to take it back down hard tomorrow and possibly Thursday too.

This week is still a bearish week from a historical point of view so bulls have their work cut out I think.  This week also closes out the month of September and the 3rd quarter of the year, so I expect some selling again as big institutions close out their books.  Anyway, my thoughts for today are to just watch and see where the market ends up at the close.  Whether it's a lower high or higher high I feel there's a great short setting up today for tomorrow.  But throughout the day the bulls should be in rally mode and have full control of the price until the close.  Naturally I would not go long up at these levels near all time highs.  Besides that I'm already short my core position, so I'll just wait and see what happens as this suspected 5th wave up ends and forces the bulls to give the ball back to the bears.  New high or not I feel time is near for bears to take control.

ES Morning Update September 25th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update September 25th 2017

Good Monday Morning to everyone.  The futures are down mildly this premarket but still at horizontal support, which seems unlikely to break without some news event to scare it.  And today is a Monday so more light volume is expected as traders get back to work.  Seems too me that they position themselves on Monday for some directional move on Tuesday, then they do it again on Wednesday for a move on Thursday.  By Friday they have all their positions closed up and head out for the weekend only to repeat it all over again the next week... rinse and repeat.

For this morning I don't see any clear direction as the 6 hour chart (not shown) shows its' MACD' just a hair below zero still pointing down but could turn back up just as easy.  This 2 hour chart shows a MACD that was oversold last week hitting -2.5 and has now moved up to tag zero and then fell back a little this morning.  You'll notice it's now flat lined around -0.5 area and could turn back up or down.  On the SPX cash the 60 minute chart of its' MACD's (not shown) show a move down from +7.5 in early September to just a tiny bit under the zero line right now.  Since that same early September high on it showed up on the 11th at +6.3 on this futures chart and crossed the zero line last Thursday the 21st we can conclude that the futures are about 2-3 days ahead of the SPX cash index.  Both are in this rising wedge and we can now see that the ES Futures has broken out of its' wedge while the SPX Index stayed inside the one it was in until the close on Friday.  But this morning it's looking likely that it will be broken.

Now, one other thing to note about the SPX 60 minute chart is that its' longer term MACD's just rolled over last Thursday from about a +5.0 level and are still slightly above +4.0 right now.  From what I've noticed watching this MACD it seems to be similar to the 6 hour chart I show of the ES Futures from time to time, whereas it has the same power I believe.  So if I had to guess (and lets face it, that's all we traders ever do) I'd say the odds favor the futures going down to fill that 2462 area gap from the 11th before going up to make another higher high.  It might take all week, I don't know?  But today looks more bearish then bullish, which of course changes from day to day.  Maybe we look more bullish tomorrow?  Don't know?  But that longer term MACD on the SPX Index tells me we'll either chop sideways for several days (maybe all week?) and not make a new high, or will drift down lower to fill that gap.  In conclusion I'm basically "not bullish" today but "neutral or bearish", as in I expect sideways movement or a down move to break the current horizontal support the futures are testing right now.

ES Morning Update September 22nd 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update September 22nd 2017

Ok gang I want to look at the 6 hour chart again as it seems to paint a better picture of the coming "next direction", which is looking like it's going to be up... but first this down move must finish.  You can see the MACD's are now approaching the zero line where "turns" are commonly made... and of course in this situation the turn would be up since it's been going down for awhile now.  My only concern here is that gap... will it be filled on this move down or with they turn back up after today, failing to even get close to it, and then after some higher high is put in next week they then decide to drop the market for the start of a much deeper pullback which would easily fill that gap.

If they turn back up today after closing down maybe 5-10 points on the day then we "could" see a strong move up on Monday that would likely take out the current high... maybe that run to 2510-2520 is the plan?  For the bears we'd really like to see them close green today and push out this drop until Monday where it could be deeper, and possibly close that gap.  A down day today would open the doors for the bulls to make another run back up on Monday which would suck for the bears.  It's really in a tough spot here as I could see another powerful rally starting soon too, or a nice correction.  Which one I just don't know yet?  But the longer the bulls can chop this sideways without losing too much ground the higher the odds that the next big move will be up.  And I don't just mean to 2510-2520, but much higher... maybe getting close to 2600 even?  I don't think that's the plan just yet as next week and October are historically bearish periods, so I'm only expecting the 10-20 points over 2500 at this point, but I do think that the bears could be in big trouble if the bulls hold this market up through the next 5 weeks.

Anyway, for today it's another tough call on predicting the pullback lows.  That 2490-2495 area has some decent horizontal support that could hold all day if they keep the volume light like they have been.  If it breaks then gap window around 2475 would be next support and finally gap fill at 2462 would be after that.  Again, I'd be shocked to see them take off to 2600 or whatever without filling that gap.  So I have to think that "if" they barely close red today and make a run for 2510-2520 next week that after that top they will turn back down and start a real pullback that does close that gap.  It might take all week next week but gaps on the futures don't go too long before getting filled and I expect this one to get filled before some crazy multi-week rally starts.  Have a great weekend everyone.

ES Morning Update September 21st 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update September 21st 2017

Yesterday the FOMC meeting produced a small pullback but it basically just tagged the lower rising trendline of the rising wedge the futures are in right now.  This suggests it was a tiny wave 4 of some degree and we should be in the tiny wave 5 up right now.  And since it's also in a bigger wave 5 up we should see an end to this rally soon, like either today or Friday I'm thinking.  Upside targets are anywhere between 2510 to 2520 is my guess.  So we are still just hanging out and waiting on this bull to die it seems.  He's clearly weak and the bears and just waiting until he falls over onto the ground and then it's time to eat him.  Next week should be the pullback as it's the end of the month and normally a bearish period as well.

Then there's scary October where crashes commonly happen.  But we don't have enough evidence right now to say for 100% that we are crashing next month, at least not enough evidence for me.  I'm 50/50 on at this point.  We haven't even seen a pullback yet in the market so let's not get overly excited about crashes just yet.  If we break that 2400 area of support I think the bulls will be in big trouble.  But right now all I see on this coming pullback is for that gap at 2462 to get filled.  After that we could turn back up and keep on going to 2600 or 2700 I guess... or make a lower high then the one trying to form now and rollover again for a move down lower... like a test of that 2400 area.

If we rollover next week as I think we will the bounce period high to watch out for is October 11th-13th I believe.  That will be the real testing period for the bulls.  The 1929 crash had it's bounce wave back up top on October 11th and then it crashed.  So whatever the bulls do they need to not lose 2400 if they rollover after that time period for the 2nd move down.  Hold 2400 until the end of October and I think they will be fine.  Lose it and they could be in very big trouble.

ES Morning Update September 20th 2017

Red
-
0
ES Morning Update September 20th 2017

Again gang, nothing to add that hasn't already been said. The market is waiting on the FOMC meeting today at 2 pm EST to hear what the Fed's plan to do in the future about interest rake hikes. I'd expect nothing new to come out of the meeting that the market isn't already expecting to be said. Then it's going to boil down to how many shorts there are in the market right above this 2500 level. If too many we could see a fast squeeze up higher to take them out, but I don't think it will hold past this Friday. In fact we could it see reverse intraday today like it did back on 8/8, but I'm not expecting that to happen as patterns rarely repeat exactly... especially one so recent. Now if that 8/8 move hadn't been seen for 3-4 years, then yeah it might repeat.

My thinking is we'd some "shaking and baking" today on the bulls and bears but the real move won't come until this Friday, maybe as early as Thursday. I fully expect next week to be down no matter what happens today. That gap on the futures has high odds of being filled before another multi-week rally starts that takes us to 2600 or wherever. I just can't see them getting too far away from that open gap and leaving it un-filled while the bulls push on up to wonder wonder land. Anyway, that's my thoughts for today. Might as well take a nap until 2 pm gang as more sideways movement is expected this morning.

1...555657...134Page 56 of 134

© Copyright - Red Dragon Leo

s2Member®