The futures are up slightly this morning, which I guessed would be the more likely scenario. The falling trendline pointing to around 2170 today is strong resistance currently and is likely the best area to short at for a move down to the 2130 area over the coming day or two. While there is still support around 2150 I do think it will break soon. Whether that happens today, afterhours or tomorrow is unknown. We could drop down to that level today and rally back up to "maybe" 2160 or so by the close and then drop tomorrow? It's common to see these triangle patterns drag out for longer then we expect.
On the SPY that 2130 area would be around 214.00 or slightly lower. The whole area between 213.00 and 214.00 is good support and should stop the move down when it comes. For today I'd just be looking for a shorting opportunity with the ideal spot being a rally up to the falling trendline pointing to 2170 currently. I don't see any good longs at this level, only a short. However, once we get down into the 2130 zone I'd be looking for a long that will likely make another attempt at the magic 2200 level, but that's probably something that's still going to be tough to get and won't get close until next week.
The MACD's here on this 60 minute chart are kinda flatlined but on the 6 hour chart they are pointing down from a high around +15 and are around +8 to +10 right now. I don't think they will bottom out and turn back up until around the +5 to as low as zero area is hit.
This Monday morning we see the ES Futures about flat. Over the weekend they bust up through the falling green trendline of resistance and have since backtested it this morning. Looking at the MACD's we've now had a "lower high" and are not pointing back down again on this 60 minute chart. The 2 hour looks similar and the 6 hour is still hovering up in the +10 level and is clearly still very overbought. That tells me that even if the 60 minute chart and the 2 hour chart do turn back up on their MACD's the upside seems limited with the 6 hour chart still overbought. Since Mondays' tend to have light volume I could see those short term MACD's turn up and give the market a small rally today. But I think the market needs a little more time to reset other charts (like the 6 hour) as many are still too overbought. So while we might not breakdown below the 2150 horizontal support zone today we also won't likely have the strength to make a new all time high today either.
My thoughts are that we'll trend up a little in the morning session and drift back down later in the day, making it a choppy day likely staying below 2175 and above 2150. The SPX Cash is still pointing down on its' MACD's which suggests again that we'll need more time to reset the charts back to bullish again. It doesn't mean we'll drop to the 2130 zone yet either as "if" enough time goes by we could see a sideways range instead that reset the charts to bullish. While we "should" drop into that range to get the stronger bullish setup we all know too well that the bulls don't like to give up much ground. So let's not rule out the "triangle" pattern being used to reset overbought charts instead of a nice clean ABC wave move down to that 2130 zone. For today though I'd be focusing on that falling trendline around 2175 to hold the bulls back today as that's where they should stall out today. Other then day traders I currently don't see much to trade today. It just looks like a choppy today inside a triangle. Possibly a setup (either bullish or bearish) will show up going into the end of the day as charts realign themselves. Naturally if I see a setup going into Tuesday I'll post another update. But this morning I don't see much worth trading.
Donald Trump revealed his 13-member economic advisory team on Friday, along with an announcement that he will unveil his policy agenda “for revitalizing the American economy” at the Detroit Economic Club on Monday at noon.
“Mr. Trump’s speech will focus on empowering Americans by freeing up the necessary tools for everyone to gain economically,” the statement reads. “It will stand in stark contrast to Clinton’s same, stale big government policy prescriptions that have choked economic growth in America and led to over 40 years of wage stagnation.”
The all-male team draws heavily from Wall Street, featuring hedge fund executives like John Paulson, who made his fortune betting against the subprime market last decade, and Stephen Feinberg, co-founder of asset management firm Cerberus Capital Management.
Trump also draws heavily from the world of real estate, while also including figures like Dan DiMicco, Executive Chairman of the steel manufacturer Nucor Corporation, a move which emphasizes Trump’s campaign theme of revitalizing American manufacturing. Other members include:
Thomas Barrack, Founder and Executive Chairman of Colony Capital,
Andy Beal, Founder and Chairman of Beal Bank and Beal Bank USA
Stephen M. Calk, Founder, Chairman and CEO of Federal Savings Bank,
Dan Kowalski, Deputy Staff Director of the Republican staff of the Senate Budget Committee
Howard M. Lorber, President and CEO of Vector Group Ltd
David Malpass, former Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary under President Reagan, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State under President George W. Bush.
Steven Mnuchin, Chairman and CEO of Dune Capital Management LP
Stephen Moore, economist and founder of Club for Growth
Peter Navarro, economist, Paul Merage School of Business at the University of California, Irvine
Steven Roth, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of Vornado Realty Trust
Despite the fact that Donald Trump has been falling in the polls this week, most surveys still show voters trusting his handling of the economy more than Hillary Clinton’s. Monday’s policy announcement therefore may prove to be the real estate magnate’s first big chance to stem Clinton’s momentum and stage a comeback in the polls.
Yesterday near the close I suggested we'd drop down this morning as the 2 hour chart (and 3 and 4 hour charts) was too overbought and pointing down strongly on its' MACD's. This 60 minute chart shows its' MACD's now near zero where it's common to see a turn back up. This tells me that the 2150 zone of support will likely hold today (at least early) as the MACD's turn back up and provide a small bounce today. I'd look for the new falling trendline (in light green) to be resistance on any bounce. It's pointing to about 2160 into the close, but is around 2165 right now.
On the downside I suggested we could drop back into the 2125 zone but it's looking more like we'll hold the 2150 most of today as the MACD's on the 60 minute chart turn back up and get overbought again later today or afterhours where it should put in a lower higher somewhere in the +5 to +10 area.
So today could be choppy as the market tries to hold that 2150 zone of support but probably won't get over the falling green trendline at 2165 right now. We all know that a lot of the big moves happen afterhours so it wouldn't surprise me to see this move down go into Monday morning.
It's been 36 hours (or so) since we were all witnesses to the biggest political upset in presidential history. As President-elect Donald Trump and President Obama huddle in Washington on Thursday, and as the gears of the incoming government begin to grind in earnest, I'm still totally captivated by the “how” of this election. How did this happen and what can we learn about ourselves and the country as a result?
The best way to do that — still — is the exit poll, the national survey of voters that gives us a portrait of who we are and what we believe. As you might expect in an election this historic, there are lots and lots of remarkable — and remarkably contradictory — findings in the exits. My take-aways — offered only in the order I came up with them — are below. (A caveat: When you talk about slicing and dicing exit polls, you are, at times, dealing with very small numbers of actual people on which broad conclusions are based. Consider that as you go through these numbers.)
1. Trump won the white vote by a record margin
In 1984, Ronald Reagan won the white vote by 20 points on his way to a 525 electoral vote smashing of Walter Mondale. Mitt Romney matched that 20-point victory in 2012 while losing relatively convincingly to President Obama. On Tuesday, Trump one-upped them both — literally. He won the white vote 58 percent to 37 percent.
The white vote also continued its decline as a percentage of the overall voter pool. In 1984, whites made up 86 percent of the total electorate. That number was 72 percent in 2012. And 70 percent in 2016.
2. There was no surge of female voters
For all of the talk that Trump's comments about women — and the allegations of sexual assault made against him by a dozen women — would mean historic turnout among female voters (and a historic margin of defeat for Trump), it simply never materialized.
Women made up 52 percent of the overall electorate in 2016 — down from 53 percent in 2012. And Hillary Clinton's 12-point margin over Trump among women was pretty darn close to the 11-point win among women that Obama claimed over Romney four years ago.
3. There was no surge of Latino voters
Trump built his campaign on a pledge to build a wall on our Southern border and make Mexico pay for it. He suggested during the campaign that a judge of Mexican descent might not be able to rule fairly in a case involving Trump University. He said that Mexico was sending “criminals” and “rapists” to the United States.
All of that led to predictions of historically high Hispanic turnout, with many predicting that 2016 would be the election that Latinos emerge as the electoral force that their population numbers suggest they should be.
It just didn't happen.
In 2012, Hispanics made up 10 percent of the overall electorate. That bumped up, marginally, to 11 percent in 2016. And, far more interestingly, Trump actually performed better among Hispanics than Romney did — 29 percent to 27 percent. More tellingly, Clinton underperformed Obama's 2012 showing among Hispanics by six points (71 percent for Obama, 65 percent for Clinton), an under-performance that allowed Trump's slight over-performance among white voters to matter more.
4. Education level mattered hugely in your vote choice
In 2012, Obama won both voters who had graduated from college and those who hadn't; he took 50 percent among the former group and 51 percent among the latter. This time around, there was a far bigger divide. Clinton won voters with a college degree 52 percent to 43 percent. Trump won voters without a college degree by eight points.
Also, contrary to some of the conventional wisdom out there about the 2016 voter, this was a more highly educated electorate than in 2012. It split evenly — 50 percent for each — between college grads and non-college grads. Four years ago, 53 percent of the electorate was non-college grads as compared to 47 percent who had a college degree.
5. Trump did better with white evangelicals than Romney
Trump didn't do much to court white evangelical voters. And his personal story — three marriages, two divorces — doesn't seem like one that many evangelicals could or would identify with. But Trump actually did better among white evangelicals than Romney had in 2012; Trump won 81 percent of “white evangelical or white born-again Christians” while Romney took 78 percent. (White evangelicals made up 26 percent of the electorate in both elections.)
How to explain it? One theory is that as a Mormon, Romney was always viewed skeptically by evangelical whites. Another is that with social issues on the wane as voting issues, white evangelicals acted more tribally; they're an overwhelmingly Republican bloc and voted like it. Or maybe Trump's antiabortion stance — and Clinton's support of abortion rights — was enough.
6. Trump didn't brings lots of new voters to the process
Just 10 percent of voters said that the 2016 election was their first time voting. Of that group, Clinton won 56 percent to 40 percent over Trump. Of course, new voters often overlap with younger voters who are eligible to vote for the first time; Clinton won among 18- to 24-year-olds by 21 points.
7. The economy was the big issue — and Clinton won it
A majority (52 percent) of voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the country. (Voters were given a choice of four issues; “terrorism” was the second most commonly named “important” issue, with 18 percent choosing it.) Among those economy voters, Clinton beat Trump by 10 points.
Scratching your head yet? More below — but this is one of several findings in the exit poll that suggest people weren't voting on issues. Like, at all.
8. This was a change election. And Trump was the change candidate.
To me, this is the single most important number in the exit poll in understanding what voters were thinking when they chose Trump. Provided with four candidate qualities and asked which mattered most to their vote, almost 4 in 10 (39 percent) said a candidate who “can bring needed change." (A candidate who “has the right experience” was the second most important character trait.) Among those change voters, Trump took 83 percent of the vote to just 14 percent for Clinton.
The desire for change appears to be at the root of the choice lots and lots of voters made. And Trump was change while Clinton was more of the same.
9. Obamacare was a wind beneath Trump's wings
The late October announcement that the average premium for people in the federal insurance exchange of the Affordable Care Act would rise by an average of 25 percent landed like a lead balloon on a not-insignificant portion of the electorate.
Almost half of the electorate (47 percent) said they thought Obamacare “went too far.” Trump beat Clinton 83 percent to 13 percent among that group.
10. Trump's personal image was and is horrible
Trump's victory should be in no way interpreted as a vote of confidence in him or his capacity to do the job. Less than 4 in 10 voters (38 percent) had a favorable opinion of him. Only 1 in 3 said he was “honest and trustworthy.” Thirty-eight percent said he was “qualified” to be president. Thirty-five percent said he has the “temperament to serve effectively as president.”
How can a candidate win with numbers like these? Because the desire for change was so great that it overrode all of the doubts — or at least many of the doubts — people had about Trump.
11. Clinton's email hurt her
Democrats spent the entire election — and the two days since the election! — insisting that Clinton's decision to exclusively use a private email server as secretary of state was a non-issue. Turns out they were wrong. Almost two-thirds of Americans (63 percent) said that Clinton's “use of private email” bothered them “a lot” or “some.” Among that group, Trump won 70 percent to 24 percent.
12. This was a deeply pessimistic electorate
Just 1 in 3 voters said they thought the country was “generally going in the right direction.” Clinton won 90 percent of that group. But, among the two-thirds of people who said things were “seriously off on the wrong track,” Trump took 69 percent.
Again, “change versus more of the same” as the dominant theme of the election. And evidence that Trump's willingness to say, “Yeah, things suck now ... but I will fix them” was a genius strategic decision.
13. People didn't think Trump lost the debates as badly as I did
I named Clinton the winner in each of three presidential debates — and I didn't think any of the three were particularly close. Lots of people who voted Tuesday did not agree with me. Among the 64 percent who said the debates were an “important” part of their vote for president, Clinton won by a narrow 50 percent to 47 percent margin over Trump. Of the 82 percent of people who said the debates were a “factor” in their decision for president, Trump took 50 percent to 47 percent for Clinton.
Good Morning All. No doubt we are very, very overbought now on the short term charts of the ES Futures as all of them from the 6 hour chart on down are at extreme highs with their MACD's now. The SPX Cash is almost as overbought too it seems, with only the 4 and 6 hour charts showing move room to go up. Basically is tells me that neither futures nor cash indexes will get through their prior all time highs on the first hit of them. A pullback of some degree (in time more the price) is almost a certainty.
So, we have the futures with a 2184 prior high and the cash with a 2193 high, and we hit 2180 this morning on the futures and have since then pulled back. It tells me that they will attempt another run back up today during the normal market hours so the cash index can get its' chance at 2193... which should also fall short. Based on how much time it takes to turn these MACD's back up on the futures (and to keep them up on the cash) my thoughts are that will see that final thrust higher late in the day near the close.
Therefore we could and should see some pullback early in the day but it should NOT break the prior 2150 area where it broke-through horizontal resistance yesterday. The DOW came within a hair of its' prior all time high of 18,688.44 yesterday with a 18,650.06 high. But on the futures of the DOW the prior high was 18,615 and that was taken out this morning with a 18,714 high. This is a clue that a new all time high on the SPX Cash and/or ES Futures "could" also happen but one should NOT assume that the market will just keep on going up without a pullback as double tops have high odds of stopping rallies on the first attempt.
My thoughts are simple. Give the charts enough time to get extremely overbought on the MACD's of all the shorter term periods (mainly the 4 and 6 hour charts) for the SPX Cash Index today, which should be by today's close, or possibly extended into Friday morning. Then we won't care so much about whether they make a slightly lower high or higher high like the DOW. We'll just be looking to short going into Friday morning if the alignment of the MACD's and the push back up into the close today setups as I think they will. If we pullback today of course and don't do that final push back up into the close then I'd look for it to happen Friday morning, where I'd then take a short. Either way it's just a matter of giving the charts enough TIME to setup and not worrying about what the price level will be when the setup appears.
WOW! And a "Flash Crash" we did indeed get! Yesterday I suggested that they might do another flash crash by showing Trump as a winner early and then steal it back later with some recount to give it to Hillary, but I'm shocked that they actually failed at rigging the election as Trump really won. Amazing! I guess they aren't a powerful anymore as they used too be? I view this as great news for America as we won't have another 4-8 years of the Bush-Clinton Cabal Gangsters. Now we'll have to hope that Trump follows through with all he talked about in his campaign. I think he's certainly a far better leader then Hillary, even-though I don't like his personality. As I've said before I like Paul Ryan, Ran Paul and even think Bernie Sanders would have been a good honest president. But we didn't have those people to choose from and now I'll support Trump. No doubt he's a sharp business man, so maybe he can get this country turned around? Who knows for sure?
Anyway, as for the market today, I'm not sure where to begin? We had a flash crash drop last night of "over" a 100 points down on the ES Futures and almost a 1,000 points on the DOW Futures. But, we have recovered about 70% of the move down now it seems. It was a "limit down" move so it kinda had to bounce I guess. I'm sure it was a big stop run on the bulls with this flash crash move. Now they are running the bears.
I don't think I can predict the market today as it needs a few days to settle down so the charts will start working correctly again as today's' moves (and yesterdays) are based on fear of the unknown... which is naturally hard to control, let alone pick the bottom or top. So give me some time today and tomorrow and when things get back to normal I'm should have a better forecast.
Oh, and afterhours the FP on the SPY from 10/28 showing 215.54 was hit to the EXACT penny... and that was the EXACT top in the futures as well. A short taken then would had made a fortune for people playing the futures. Unfortunately I don't play futures, but I'm sure some of you do. Hopefully you did well. Anyway, I'll post more updates throughout the day after something appears to help predict new levels of support and resistance. I've added a Fibonacci chart on the afterhours high to the low, which might be some levels to watch for support and resistance. Ok, that's it. As I said, I'll do new updates and charts and put them in the chatroom as I see new data show up.
Officials confirm problems occurred after reports machines switched Trump votes to Clinton
Multiple voters reportedly claimed that their votes for Republican Donald Trump were being switched to Hillary Clinton before their very eyes.
"I went back, pressed Trump again. Three times I did this, so then I called one of the women that were working the polls over. And she said you must be doing it wrong," voter Bobbie Lee Hawranko told CBS Pittsburgh. But "she did it three times and it defaulted to Hillary every time," he said.
Officials claim the machines have been recalibrated and that the problem is fixed.
CLINTON TOWNSHIP (KDKA/AP) – Today is Election Day and for the most part, voting has been smooth.
Many areas are already seeing long lines with some officials saying they wouldn’t be surprised if voter turnout topped 80 percent.
However, there have been some scattered issues where voters are encountering problems.
“Every time I would push a candidate for the Republican party, it would come up for the Democratic candidate,” said voter David Drane.
Election judges in Clinton Township, Butler County confirmed there were issues with two of their eight automated voting machines. Most of the issues came when people tried to vote straight party ticket.
However, others said they specifically wanted to vote for Republican Donald Trump only to see their vote switched before their eyes to Democrat Hillary Clinton.
“I went back, pressed Trump again. Three times I did this, so then I called one of the women that were working the polls over. And she said you must be doing it wrong. She did it three times and it defaulted to Hillary every time,” Bobbie Lee Hawranko said.
Pennsylvania State Representative Daryl Metcalfe went to Clinton Township to check on the reports for himself.
“If somebody has an issue, they should certainly let the judge of elections at the precinct know and also call their county bureau of elections as folks have done here this morning,” Pa. Rep. Daryl Metcalfe said.
Happy Election Day! Be sure to go vote for Satan or Lucifer today as every vote counts... not really as only 538 "electoral" people do the voting but you can get a cool badge that says you voted so it must be something.
Ok, yesterday near the close I said I thought today would be a "pause" day where we trade sideways to slightly down as the short term charts are too overbought. I'll stick with that forecast and only add that there could be a late day rally after the 60 minute chart and possibly this 2 hour chart work off most of the overbought conditions. I don't think that's the way SkyNet has it planned but it's possible (especially if they surprise us with a Trump victory). I think most America's know the elections are rigged and Krooked Killiary has already be chosen, so assuming she wins we should rally up Wednesday to hit the FP on the SPY from a week or so ago. That's not too much higher so again... "if" for some reason they rally into the close today to tag that FP then we might be looking at some surprise tomorrow.
My thoughts on it are that they would pull some move that hints at a Trump victory where wall street panic's and dumps the market Wednesday and then they recount them and say Hilliary won and the market rallies back up. It's all just a game to steal your money with these wild swings up and down. Any trader with that can do any critical thinking would have put two and two together and come to the conclusion that the FBI re-opening the email case on Hilliary a week before the election was just staged to benefit her when the weekend before the election they come out and say she's innocent and that they are dropping the case. Total bullshit of course but it trapped the bears short with the big squeeze up yesterday, which I'm sure was planned as well. Traders should not expect much on the downside today as once SkyNet traps the shorts it rarely gives them any chance to get out.
So, assuming we don't rally up into the close and tag the FP on the SPY, I'm expecting a choppy sideways day today and the rally up tomorrow after Hilliary gets elected. But if we rally today instead and hit that FP then I'm looking for some kind of scare that Trump won to drop the market on Wednesday. Another "Flash Crash" I guess you'd call it? Then on Thursday you recount the votes and give to Hilliary as that was always the plan anyway. But a "fake out" drop is worth Trillions of dollars to them if they turn it into a flash crash. Never under estimate these criminals that run the market guys. Let's not forget that Wednesday is also 11-9-2016, or 911 backwards. I'm not saying anything is going to happen but I'd be a bear again if the FP on the SPY is hit by the close today. Remember, the last big drop (mini-crash) was on 9-9-2016 and 2+0+1+6=9, or 999... flipped is 666. These Satanist that run the market love their ritual numbers, so be on guard.
The world’s largest e-commerce platform, China’s Alibaba, is aiming for a record 6 trillion yuan ($912 billion) in gross merchandise volume (GMV) in 2020 from 3.09 trillion this year, Reuters reports, quoting the company.
According to Alibaba founder Jack Ma, the company also wants to quadruple the number of customers to 2 billion by 2036, up from 423 million buyers in 2016.
Ma has pledged to intensify the fight against counterfeit products and intellectual property rights violation.
"I promise you guys that counterfeits, fake products, and intellectual property theft - we are more and more confident than ever that we can solve the problem," he said.
In April, Alibaba became the world’s largest retailer, surpassing Walmart. The company says its online trading accounts for 10 percent of all retailing in China and has generated 15 million jobs.
Last November, Alibaba hit a record $14.3 billion in sales on Singles’ Day, a Chinese holiday intended to celebrate single life. This is more than double the e-commerce sales in the US from Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday combined. Alibaba has been holding these sales since 2009. November’s $14.3 billion smashed 2014’s total of $9.3 billion in gross sales.
The company also holds the title of the biggest IPO in history, raising $25 billion in four days in September 2014, $7 billion more than Visa and $9 billion more than Facebook and General Motors.
Alibaba generates more revenue than Amazon and eBay combined
Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba has blown away earnings expectations in the quarter ending September 30. Revenues increased 55 percent to 34.29 billion yuan ($5 billion), more than Amazon and eBay combined.
“We reported robust revenue growth of 55 percent this quarter, with strong growth in each of our four reporting segments,” said Maggie Wu, Chief Financial Officer of Alibaba Group.
“Our highly profitable and cash flow generative core commerce business enables us to invest in our future growth areas of cloud computing, digital media and entertainment and innovation initiatives. We expect each of these businesses to drive long-term value for both our customers and shareholders,” she said.
Alibaba’s revenue of 34.29 billion yuan (about $5 billion) in the three months through September beat the average estimate of 33.9 billion yuan from 24 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.
Revenue from the company's core e-commerce business grew 41 percent over the year before to 28.49 billion yuan ($4.2 billion), driven by sales in China.
Net income slid to 7.1 billion yuan ($1.05 billion) from 22.7 billion yuan ($3.35 billion). Alibaba pegged the fall on a large one-time item.
"Beyond the strong performance of our core commerce business, we are pleased with the continued rapid growth of our cloud computing business," said Daniel Zhang, CEO of Alibaba Group.
Alibaba’s media and digital entertainment business, which was consolidated under a new entity on Monday, saw revenues rise 302 percent year on year, mostly due to the consolidation of Youku Tudou, the local alternative to YouTube, which is blocked in China.
The company’s report comes just days before China’s Singles’ Day on November 11, the world's biggest online shopping event, which is 10 times bigger than US Cyber Monday. Last year, Alibaba earned a world record breaking 91.2 billion yuan ($14.32 billion) during the day.
Happy Bear Squeeze Monday Guys! Looks likely that the multiday losing streak (9 days) that hasn't been seen in 36 years will come to an end today as the futures are ready to open up over 25 points this morning. Looking at this 60 minute chart we see the futures have hit the falling trendline this morning and has backed down from it a few points. Consider how overbought we are short term that fall trendline might hold the bulls back at least during the first half of today if not all day. While I don't expect some big down move from here I also don't see much more on the upside today. Most likely we'll stay up here in this range all day and try to push through this mornings' current high later today near the close. This is my preferred scenario.
My 2nd scenario is that we push through the resistance early in the day and make a run for the higher falling trendline (in brownish red) coming in around 2123 today. The last scenario would be a pullback to half the gap up, which I think has the lowest odds. I see the highest odds are the "sideways most of the day and some attempt to rally late in the day" scenario I mentioned first. Then the "push through the resistance early" as the next likely plan. Overall I see this gap up holding this zone and/or pushing higher. I don't see an gap fill today and "at best" I could see the gap window tested (around 2102.50). The markets are still worried about the election on Tuesday so while I think we'll hold this level today I don't think this is over with yet on the downside.
This is likely just a bear squeeze that will end in days to weeks with a peak high still lower then the all time high. We have a possible FP on the SPY that could be the upside target? However, that doesn't mean it will turn back down once it's hit... it only means that the market will likely go up and hit that level. After that it might chop around, rollover, or trade sideways for awhile and push up more? Don't know? Of course the election tomorrow is a wildcard as we just don't know what will happen after it's over. So for now let's just stick will today and expect either sideways trading with some odds of a pullback to gap window, or a push through on up higher with the next resistance at 2123.
NEW YORK — The slow, steady retreat of the stock market ahead of the 2016 election continued Friday, with the market falling for a ninth straight day. Wall Street is now in its longest period of decline in more than three decades.
Investors continue to focus on the U.S. presidential election, which has become too close for comfort for some investors and has put the market on the defensive.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 42.39 points, or 0.2 percent, to 17,888.28. The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 3.48 points, or 0.2 percent, to 2,085.18 and the Nasdaq composite lost 12.04 points, or 0.2 percent, to 5,046.37.
The last time the S&P 500 fell for nine straight days is December 1980, nearly 36 years ago. Ronald Reagan wasn't even president yet.
However the nine days' worth of declines has been relatively minor, comparatively speaking. The S&P 500 fell 9.4 percent during the 1980 nine-day losing streak, according to Howard Silverblatt at S&P Global Market Intelligence, compared with the 3.1 percent decline in this sell-off.
Investors point to one reason for the drop: Donald Trump.
With only a few days left until the election, Hillary Clinton is still leading in national polling but Trump appears to have considerably narrowed the gap, particularly in swing states. Investors like certainty, and Clinton is seen as likely to maintain the status quo. Trump's policies are less clear, and the uncertainty and uncomfortable closeness of the polls has caused jitters in financial markets.
"Some investors are afraid of Donald Trump becoming president," said Michael Scanlon, a portfolio manager at Manulife Asset Management.
Other portfolio managers and market strategists have made similar comments, saying that it is likely a drop would continue on Wall Street if Trump were to prevail, at least in the short term. The VIX, a measure of volatility nicknamed Wall Street's "fear gauge" because it allows investors to bet on how much the stock market will swing in the next 30 days, has surged 40 percent this week. It is at its highest level since June, when Britain voted to leave the European Union.
"No one really knows what Trump would do should he get into power, probably not even himself," said Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG. "It is that uncertainty that is driving the market negativity that has dominated this week."
Some encouraging news on the U.S. economy did keep the market higher most of the day, but the gains faded in the last hour of trading. Traders did not want to hold positions into the weekend with the election and retreated to their usual hamlets of safety: U.S. government bonds and gold.
U.S. employers added a solid 161,000 jobs in October and raised pay sharply for many workers. The Labor Department's monthly employment report Friday sketched a picture of a resilient job market. The pace of hiring has been consistent with a decent economy. The unemployment rate fell to 4.9 percent from 5 percent. And average hourly pay took a big step up, rising 10 cents an hour to an average of $25.92. That is 2.8 percent higher than a year ago and is the sharpest 12-month rise in seven years.
"This is really good for the U.S. consumer, especially as we head into the critical holiday shopping season," Scanlon said.
With the election coming up in less than a week, the October jobs report is likely to give the Federal Reserve enough ammunition to raise interest rates at its December meeting, economists said. Fed policymakers ended a two-day meeting on Wednesday where they decided to hold rates steady.
"It seems that the only remaining obstacle to the Fed hiking in December would be a significant adverse financial market reaction to the U.S. presidential election," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, in an email.
In company news: GoPro, the maker of wearable cameras, lost 78 cents, or 6.5 percent, to $11.16. The company reported a 40 percent drop in revenue in the quarter, and gave a negative outlook for the holiday season. Like Fitbit, GoPro is showing signs of being unable to expand the audience for its product line. The stock did recover part of an earlier loss.
In energy, benchmark U.S. crude oil lost 59 cents to $44.07 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the international standard, declined 77 cents to $45.58 a barrel in London.
Heating oil fell 3 cents to $1.43 a gallon, wholesale gasoline fell 4.5 cents to $1.38 a gallon and natural gas futures fell less than 1 cent to $2.767 per 1,000 cubic feet.
U.S. government bond prices rose. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 1.78 percent from 1.81 percent the day before.
The euro rose to $1.1117 from $1.1109 and the dollar rose to 103.13 yen from 102.99 yen.
Gold rose $1.20 to $1,304.50 an ounce, silver fell 5 cents to $18.37 an ounce and copper rose 2 cents to $2.27 a pound.
Well the jobs report this morning seems to be a dud as the futures just yawned at them it appears. I remember in the old days we'd see 10-20 point moves in one direction or the other just shortly after the 8:30 am report was released. But this morning we are barely up. Today doesn't look like it's going to do a whole lot of nothing at this point. The 60 minute MACD's here are under zero still but don't act like they want to go above it as the hit it and rollover. The 3 hour charts are climbing up from -7.5 to -5.0 right now and the 6 hour chart is trying to turn back up.
This all looks to me we'll have a choppy day that should close green but I don't see any huge rally starting. There's just nothing to suggest some squeeze to start. I don't see anything but chop around this low area in the morning and possibly a little stronger move up late in the day as traders cover short before the weekend. I'd lean toward them drifting down a little lower in the first half of today and then back up to close green late in the day. Charts are mixed with no clear direction. Any strong rally up at this point doesn't look like it will start until next week.
My thoughts for today... take it off. We could go up or down today but I don't see any clear high odds alignment for a long or short. Moves will probably be small up's and small down's leading to just chop, and for most people that's just isn't worth trading. Later in the day we might see a more bullish move but this just feel's like a market that wants to close out the week down near the lows. It's all about the elections at this point it seems...
The futures are up slightly this morning as it keeps riding the green falling trendline down and bouncing off of it. The move up also has broken out of the falling wedge on the futures, which generally means another drop is coming to backtest the breakout, which would be at a lower level if it happens. It also "usually" happens early in the day, like right after the open... and then it turns back up and rallies the rest of the day. If for some reason it rallies early instead it will open the doors for a late day sell off that has higher odds of going much lower then it would in the morning. Remember, as time passes by the falling trendlines go deeper.
What I see on the technical side is a 60 minute chart that will be overbought by midday or so, but the 3 and 6 hour charts are pointing up nicely. They could provide the strength to keep the early backtest from happening. The bulls would rather dip this early to have better strength on a rally. The bears would like to see a straight shot up to the FP on the SPY where the bulls will be exhausted with overbought charts everywhere allowing for another big drop to lower lows to happen shortly there after.
My thoughts? I'm a little mixed on how this is going to play out but if I just think about how it should be done based on the coming news events I'd go up early and down late today to make a slightly lower low and red close. Then I'd use the Non-Farm Payroll report (now called "Employment Situation") to create the strong rally. Then I'd continue it all day Friday and into the election where the FP could be hit to top out the bounce and allow another move down after the election. The charts can support this scenario as well as I think they can provide enough support to push the futures up early in the day and not allow it to rollover until later near the close.
I could see a push toward that falling trendline pointing to 2115 today, but I'm not sure if it will get that high or not? I guess it will based more on how much time has went by as the longer it takes the more the charts get extended and possibly overbought. However, that's probably too high for today as there's a lot of trapped bulls just overhead in the 2102-2107 area, so I wouldn't expect a lot today. It's still mixed chartwise. Odds are good for one more shakeout move down at some point today. Whether that is early in the day or late in the day I'm not sure. I'd do it going into the close but I'm not SkyNet so it might have other plans. However, if we close red today I think we'll see a nice up day on Friday from the NFP report.
Looks like we should rally some today. I got yesterdays' call wrong thinking we'd chop around while waiting on the FOMC meeting today but the market took a nose dive instead, tagging and piercing the 2100 level. I guess you can't get them all right, no matter how hard you try. For today it looks like it's setting up to rally. With the FOMC meeting at 2pm we might see some chop in front of it but both the ES Futures and SPX Cash are oversold on their charts and look ready to turn back up. The SPX is lagging behind and might not turn until closer to the meeting, which again leads me to think we'll have some chop in front it... like maybe a small wave 1 up and wave 2 down, and then the wave 3 (or ABC waves with the 3 being the C) up into the close.
However, I don't think the selling is over with for the week. While we might not take out 2100 again, as it looks pretty strong now with its' double bottom test yesterday, the Employment Situation (formerly called the Non-Farm Payroll Report) is another market mover and might cause another move down if we rally up in front of it and hit the FP on the SPY from Friday. Of course if we are still in chop mode just dancing around this current low range going into Friday morning then the opposite would be true as it might then be used for a rally up to the FP target. We'll worry about that bridge when we get there.
The road today is still in front of us and it suggests some early chop (again, a wave 1 up and 2 down... which might be labeled "A up" and "B down") in front of the meeting seems likely. If all we get is some wave 1 up in front of it then the wave 2 down would be the move right after the FOMC meeting to shake out the longs. The the 3 up into the close. The exact nature of how the waves up and down play out aren't that easy to predict, so just focus on the big picture for today... and that is find a spot for a long into the close. There should be some pullbacks today to shake rattle and roll all the longs out, and then the move up should take us into the close.
They have already tested the low from yesterday in the afterhours/premarket session on the futures so I don't expect another test, but it still might get close. Overall the early part of today should be where they carve out a bottom while they wait on the SPX Cash to catch up... which when it does the move from it should again be up. I do not know the strength of this move today as while we aren't expecting the Fed's to raise rates in today's' meeting they still might hint at something for December which might keep the rally up kinda weak. Resistance is the falling trendline that's pointing to around 2120 area, and above that is the reddish brown falling trendline pointing to around 2132 or so. Those level would be the first targets I'd expect to give the bulls trouble at should we rally. If we drop and go through yesterdays' low again, it could get ugly. Let's just worry about that if it happens. For now let's go with today closing green and look for good spots to take a long at.
We have been very, very suspicious of Donald Trump since he began his political run.
Many believed he was an outsider who was our “only hope” to tame the US federal government beast. But it has become very clear he is not.
First, Wikileaks showed that Killary herself actually approved Trump to be her competitor. According to an email sent from an assistant at the Clinton campaign, Hillary was aware that Trump was going to run before the political process was fully underway.
Clinton advised the mainstream media to push his legitimacy as a “pied piper” candidate because she realized, after looking at the poll numbers, that she wouldn’t stand a chance at winning the presidency against any of the establishment republicans without making them “pied pipers” – it just so happened that Donald was the easiest to play the role considering his long history of friendship with the Clintons.
In addition, the mainstream media was more than complicit in creating a narrative that the 2016 presidential elections were about Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump from the get go.
But, barely reported in the media, was that after the 3rd presidential debate, Clinton and Trump went out for a night on the town together… and where they went is of great interest.
They went to an annual Jesuit function which is usually full of New World Order types.
THE JESUITS
One of the more interesting things that occurred right at the end of the Jubilee year in early October, was that the Jesuits installed a new Superior General, with the date to commence being actually at midnight on the end of Jubilee.
We found this interesting because there is plenty of evidence that the Jesuits are at least one major arm of what you can call the illuminati.
In fact, the Jesuits were founded in Spain by what various reports call “crypto Jews” – those who are Jewish but pretending to be Catholic. Certainly at that time in Spain it was safer not to be a Jew.
Even Wikipedia, which wouldn’t recognize a conspiracy if it were directly presented by its participants has this to say about the Jesuits:
… In the first 30 years of the existence of the Society of Jesus there were many Jesuit conversos (Catholic-convert Jews) including the second Father General Diego Lainez … The original founder Ignatius … said that he, “would take it as a special grace from our Lord to come from Jewish lineage.”
At the beginning of the Al Smith dinner party after Cardinal Dolan was introduced, a joke was even made by a speaker that “everyone in attendance is doing their part in supporting their charitable efforts and that it couldn’t be done without the support of many of the other devoted “Catholics” on stage like Henry Kissinger, Howard Rubenstein, and Mort Zuckerman” – all of whom are obviously Jewish so this remark was naturally met with a lot of laughter…
In fact, an extraordinary amount of controversy swirls around Jesuits. They are said to constitute the “Black Church” and thus adhere to the same Satanic religion as the world’s elite bankers supposedly hold.
The leader of the Jesuit order is commonly recognized in conspiratorial circles as the “Black Pope” whose signature staff is a crooked cross. Historically, the Jesuit Order has been seen as one that shirks no crime in expanding the power of the Church.
Lest this sound entirely outrageous, one must note that the Jesuits are, for instance, the inventors of concentration camps, which they established in Paraguay in order to incarcerate and then torture the native indians of the area.
But the litany of attributed Jesuit evil is even darker than that according to those who believe in the order’s continued malicious pursuit. The supposed founder of the Bavarian-based Illuminati, Adam Weishaupt, was a Jesuit.
In fact, the order is reputed to have been deeply involved in the Illuminati’s initial expansion, and chances are it is still deeply involved.
One more thing that highlights the evil of the Jesuits is their extreme oath of induction which all superiors must take in order to be elevated to the higher rungs of the organization. This is taken from the book Subterranean Rome by Carlos Didier, translated from the French, and published in New York in 1843 and reads in part,
“…promise and declare that I will, when opportunity present, make and wage relentless war, secretly or openly, against all heretics, Protestants and Liberals, as I am directed to do, to extirpate and exterminate them from the face of the whole earth; and that I will spare neither age, sex or condition; and that I will hang, waste, boil, flay, strangle and bury alive these infamous heretics, rip up the stomachs and wombs of their women and crush their infants’ heads against the walls, in order to annihilate forever their execrable race. That when the same cannot be done openly, I will secretly use the poisoned cup, the strangulating cord, the steel of the poniard or the leaden bullet, regardless of the honor, rank, dignity, or authority of the person or persons, whatever may be their condition in life, either public or private, as I at any time may be directed so to do by any agent of the Pope or Superior of the Brotherhood of the Holy Faith, of the Society of Jesus…”
One of the most poignant quotes regarding the malevolence of the Jesuits comes from Marquis de LaFayette 1757-1834; who was a French statesman and general who served in the American Continental Army under the command of General George Washington during the American Revolutionary War.
His quote is as follows:
“It is my opinion that if the liberties of this country – the United States of America – are destroyed, it will be by the subtlety of the Roman Catholic Jesuit priests, for they are the most crafty, dangerous enemies to civil and religious liberty. They have instigated MOST of the wars of Europe.”
THE BIG BASH
When evaluating Jesuit behavior and influence, please keep in mind that both Donald Trump and Hillary’s VP, Tim Kaine, are Jesuit educated. And it should be of GREAT interest, therefore, that practically on the eve of the US election, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton partied the night away at a Jesuit function that included such prominent Jesuit-trained attendees as Henry Kissinger.
Not only did the two not look like sworn enemies… they looked like two star crossed lovers going to their first prom.
We have long held to our stance that Killary will be the next President of the US. The amount of vote rigging, murders and shenanigans to even get her to where she is so far has been tremendous… and it won’t stop.
That said, if by some fluke, and the Diebold machines malfunction or people in the US wake up slightly and Donald Trump gets elected… it is pretty clear they are on the same team and, as we’ve said previously, nothing major will change.
So, if you were hoping that this election could change things in the US… get over that hope right now. It might change things, but only for the much, much worse.
This charade is being played right in front of everyone’s eyes and most do not understand what is happening or why jokes like the “Catholic” joke is actually funny to these elite people.
They are laughing at the peasants’ stupidity and lack of understanding, not because the men mentioned are Jews… anyone with half a brain knows that.
… The groundwork for global governance has been laid, don’t let them blindside you as they attempt to carry out their nefarious plot. Donald Trump even stated at the dinner, “We’ve got to come together, not only as a nation, but as a world community.”
Above image – the chief staff of EU paying homage to their emperor, the Jesuit pope.
These people are called Magis because they can do magic, and the basic tenet why these Magicians are so very successful is that most people want to be fooled.
Aside from the fiat monetary scam and bloodsoaked petrodollar, another significant source of funds for the Nazionist Khazarian Mafia is the “healthcare” industry which registered a whopping $3.09 trillion in 2014, and is projected to soar to $3.57 trillion in 2017, in the US alone. We believe that this is just a conservative figure.
We can all help the revolution by avoiding all Khazarian pharmaceutical drugs, defeat any viral attack and scaremongering, like the Zika virus, easily by knowing how to build our own comprehensive antiviral system. Find more about how we can kill three birds with one stone, right here.
This morning is starting to look a little more bullish as we can see some coiling action with the futures going up and back down, up and back down and now up again. I guess in elliottwave wave it might be a series of 1 waves up and 2 waves down that suggest a wave 3 up coming soon, but EW is so "iffy" as you can go back and change the count afterwards when the move turns out wrong.
I'd go with the technical analysis first and try to make the wave count fit in what I see with the MACD's and Histogram Bars, and they do lean most bullish this morning. But the problem is that the market is waiting on the FOMC meeting tomorrow and therefore these technical's and wave counts mean nothing until the news event is over with, and then the market will move.
As for today I'd love to tell you that we are going have a strong rally that takes us up to the FP on the SPY but there's just not enough evidence to say that. I'm only slightly more bullish this morning then bearish but overall the charts are mixed as they wait on the FOMC meeting Wednesday. The inverted head and shoulders is bullish, the technical's are most bullish (or mixed) but the "reason" to move the market isn't until tomorrow.
So today could be another choppy day with no clear direction just like yesterday was choppy with a slightly bearish alignment. Of course if I see something before the close today I'll do another chart update but right now before the open I've got nothing clear. Taking the morning off and waiting until later in the day seems like the best plan I think.
Happy Halloween Everyone... Today I'd normally say the expected light volume would all the market to float higher but with the reopening of the case on Hillary for treason with those emails and with the uncertainty about what the Fed's say at this Wednesdays' FOMC meeting, I'm thinking the market will chop around or drift lower. The small fear there is usually enough to keep traders on the sidelines and not get too excited about going long until such events pass. Plus we are still stuck in the lower middle of a range and I'm sure there will be more interesting in buying with a retest of the 2100 level then the current level.
However, we did a new FP on the SPY afterhours on Friday so at some point I do see them rallying up to that level. Will that be before the FOMC meeting or after? I'm not sure but I don't see some short squeeze up to that print starting today. The charts are mixed but overall still bearish. I we can get another move down today into the close then we should be oversold enough to bounce back up on Tuesday and at least start the move up to the FP on the SPY. I'd like to see 2100 tested but that's not required. Just another down day today would probably do it, but I'd like to get close to the 2112.50 low that happened over the weekend, not just some one or two point red close.
If for some strange reason we close green today then I don't think the charts will be oversold enough to produce that starting rally to the FP, but instead just push off the down move until Tuesday. We've been making higher lows since the 2100 low with a 2107 low on the 13th and over the weekend we hit 2112, so we don't have to break that before the FOMC meeting but we should at minimum get close to it again. They might be too afraid to let the market fall to retest 2100 now as they fear it will not hold. So making higher lows is all they can do for now so they can get this short squeeze started tomorrow and into Wednesday/Thursday. I'm not sure on where we bottom at if we drop today, but I do think it's needed before going higher again.
My thoughts are this, we'll drift lower through the day. The noon time period we could see a turn as traders go to lunch, but I see nothing here in the charts or the news to spark a rally today. If we can close down 5,6,7 points or more, making a higher low (or lower low) on the futures today then I think we'll be oversold enough to start at least the first wave up tomorrow. I do see one more squeeze up coming but I don't see it starting today. Maybe it starts tomorrow or after the FOMC meeting? I'm not sure yet. I only think that I'm a bear today but not a super excited one as it feels more like it's going to just do a "slow drift" down instead of a cliff dive. It might even chop around until noon first and then drift lower? It's just not a clear setup for today, but more bearish then bullish.
Scientists are planning to release an army of millions of modified mosquitoes in areas of Brazil and Colombia.
They say the unusual approach is an attempt to provide "revolutionary protection" against mosquito-borne diseases such as Zika and chikungunya.
The mosquitoes are infected with a bug called Wolbachia which reduces their ability to spread viruses to people.
The $18m dollar project is funded by an international team of donors, including the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.
The scheme - which aims to start in early 2017 - is also financed by local governments in Latin America, the US and the UK.
Wolbachia is a naturally occurring bacterium that infects 60% of insect species worldwide, but scientists say it does not harm humans.
The bug does not usually infect the Aedes aegypti mosquito - the species mostly responsible for spreading a host of diseases such as Zika, dengue fever and cikungunya.
But over the last decade researchers working for the Eliminate Dengue Program have found a way to inject the bug into Aedes mosquitoes.
And researchers say small-scale observational trials in Brazil, Colombia, Australia, Indonesia and Vietnam have shown that once released, the modified mosquitoes can cut the spread of dengue to humans.
It has been shown to do the same for Zika and chikungunya in laboratory-based tests.
Dr Trevor Mundel, of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, said: "Wolbachia could be a revolutionary protection against mosquito-borne disease.
"It's affordable, sustainable, and appears to provide protection against Zika, dengue and a host of other viruses.
"We are eager to study its impact and how it can help countries."
Researchers now plan to expand the trials to large urban areas in Bello in Colombia, other parts of Antioquia, and the greater Rio de Janeiro area in partnership with local governments.
Scientists say once released, the infected mosquitoes breed with uninfected ones, passing on the bug to future generations.
They will monitor the programme closely for the next three years, checking to see if cases of dengue fever, Zika and chikungunya fall.
Prof Scott O'Neill, of the Eliminate Dengue Program, told the BBC: "In the communities we have already worked with there have initially been two concerns.
"One was that the mosquitoes might harm them in some way or that there might be some unintended consequences.
"It is testament to our community engagement teams working really closely with communities to answer questions that all the communities we work with are fully supportive.
"We explained Wolbachia bugs are present in so many insects worldwide that millions of humans come into contact with them everyday with no problems.
"And in the six years we have been doing these trials there have been no problems."
'Resource competition'
Researchers say it is likely that the Wolbachia approach works in two ways.
According to Prof O'Neill, Wolbachia appears to boost the immune system of mosquitoes, making them resistant to viruses like dengue.
And Wolbachia may compete with dengue and Zika for resources essential to replication. The viruses lose out and do not replicate as successfully, making it harder for them to be passed on when a mosquito bites a human.
What a total bunch of bullshit!
Bill Gate is a criminal that should be arrested to for murder of millions of people from his forced vaccinations on poor people in Africa... and now he's acting like some savior again trying to help. I promise you those mosquitoes are going to be use to kill... not to stop the spread of diseases. The opposite is the real plan.... meaning they will use them to SPREAD more viruses!
The last two days have be tough to forecast as wild intraday swings were fast and furious. In morning update yesterday when the market was up 10 points I thought it would grind higher the rest of the day but boy was that wrong! It rolled over and went negative by 10 points and then reversed back up again to go positive and then back down one more time into the close... wild day for sure!
Just before the end of the day I did another update for what I thought about today and I really wasn't sure (still aren't) but leaned bullish. However, I didn't have any really strong opinion and suggested everyone to just not trade anything overnight, long or short, as the direction was still unclear.
As we can now see this morning the only thing I got right was to say "don't trade" as the futures are just slightly green before the open and can still go either direction today. In the overnight session we can see they made a lower low as they tagged 2116 around 4 am in the morning. They seem to be in rally mode now as they have come up quite a bit from that early low... but the question is, will the SPX Cash also need to make a lower low today also?
What generally happens in cases like this is the SPX/SPY will rollover early in the day to make a slightly lower low then their close yesterday but the ES Futures will make a higher low then the 2116 low this morning, but will be lower then the 2122 low at the close yesterday. That will likely setup the rally as the lows will have been put in on the futures early this morning and cash index shortly thereafter the open.
So, my thoughts would be to watch the futures closely for a pullback to below 2122 but above 2116 so the SPX/SPY can go negative slightly as well and make their lower low then yesterday. At that point I think the market can turn back up from and get a rally started. I don't know how much as I still don't see anything but range-bound trading until after the FOMC meeting next Wednesday.
Now, if the market rallies up early in the day and fails to put in that lower low like the futures did then we might see it later today into the close or even Monday... but it's rare to see some lower low on the futures without the cash index having one too. They get delayed sometimes but they usually have a lower low as well. For those people long you should not overstay your welcome on this morning rally. When you see it running into resistance and appearing to lose momentum I personally would exit. I don't see any stronger bottom until the SPX also has lower low as well. Again, this might happen early today, late today or Monday... don't know? But odds say it's coming.
Early pullback for lower low on SPXY/SPY (and higher low on futures) = stronger rally. No pullback today suggests 2116 low might not hold and a lower low could happen by Monday.
My thoughts on it are that it will happen late today or Monday. The reason is that they seem to take the market down in front of many FOMC meetings and then ram it up afterwards. A Monday low would be ideal for the bulls I think, especially if it re-tagged the 2107 or 2100 prior lows over the weekend. That would be a lower low then this mornings' 4 am low of 2116 of course, which again, I don't think will be broken today, but could be over the weekend. Anyway, whether that is the low or we dip lower before Monday I do think the SPX/SPY will have another lower low either today or early next week. I'd exit longs when possible today and go flat until the close when I can get a better feel for what might happen over the weekend and Monday.