The MACD's rolled over and are pointing down nicely on all time frames.
Monday I saw a "possible" FP on the SPY of 210.37, which now seems to be coming into to play. Keep in mind that most FP's are pierced a little and rarely stop at the exact level. On the ES Futures that SPY level is about 2096 or so, and there's a lot of horizontal support in the 2090-2095 range... which could be the downside target today.
On the upside we see new resistance from the falling channel now that comes in between around 2108 early in the day to 2104 later in the day. So should the market rally near the open that would be the first major resistance. Currently all the short term charts or pointing down so I really wouldn't expect to see any decent rally early in the day. In fact we might now see much on the upside until the last hour of day, which is typical for Friday's recently.
From a wave point of view this looks like a C wave down to me, which I suggested yesterday we'd see today. Next week is normally a very bullish period, so I wouldn't hold any short into Monday and would look to exit it today around the FP on the SPY of 210.37 (give or take a little).
Philippe P. Dauman, left, Viacom’s chief, was ousted last month from the board of National Amusements and the trust that will control Sumner Redstone’s companies after he dies or is declared incompetent.
National Amusements, the theater chain through which Sumner M. Redstone controls his $40 billion empire, is preparing to replace a handful of directors on the Viacom board, a move that is expected to serve as a prelude to the ouster of the entertainment company’s embattled chief executive.
In consideration for board positions are Kenneth Lerer, a venture capitalist, co-founder of the Huffington Post and chairman of Buzzfeed, and Nicole Seligman, a former Sony executive and lawyer who represented President Bill Clinton during his impeachment trial, according to three people briefed on the discussions.
Also on the list is Judith McHale, the former Discovery Communications chief and general counsel for MTV Networks in the 1980s, and Thomas J. May, the chairman of Eversource Energy utility company and Bank of America director, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
The development signals a move to reshape the Viacom board with the ultimate goal of firing Philippe P. Dauman as chairman and chief executive of the company. Viacom, which owns the MTV, Nickelodeon and Comedy Central cable networks and the Paramount Pictures film and television studio, has struggled over the last year.
It is not clear whether the people under consideration have formally accepted the positions, and the choices, as well as the strategy, could change.
Continue reading the main story
One possibility being discussed is that the new Viacom board would serve a short term before National Amusements pushes to merge Viacom with CBS, the other entertainment company it controls, two of the people said.
Viacom and CBS were split into separate companies in 2006.
The new directors are likely to be aligned with Mr. Redstone’s daughter, Shari Redstone, who was long estranged from her father but has recently reconciled with him. She has publicly opposed Mr. Dauman’s ascent at the company and, according to court documents, has “frequently repeated to the Viacom board” that Mr. Dauman should be replaced.
Mr. Dauman has said Mr. Redstone, 93, lacks the mental capacity to make business decisions about his companies, and that Ms. Redstone is manipulating her father. Mr. Redstone’s representatives have said he is acting independently.
Ms. Redstone is not expected to grab the chairman position at Viacom for herself; she turned it down when her father ceded the role in February.
Representatives for National Amusements, Mr. Redstone and Ms. Redstone could not immediately be reached for comment. Carl Folta, a spokesman for Viacom, declined to comment.
The Dynamic of Disputes in the Battle for Sumner Redstone’s Empire
War has spread across the empire of Sumner Redstone, one of the entertainment industry’s most tenacious titans. At stake are the fortunes of his family and confidants, as well as the fate of Viacom and CBS.
Rather than dismiss the entire Viacom board, one possibility being considered is for National Amusements to remove a few of the directors who are allies of Mr. Dauman, two of the people briefed on the discussions said.
Mr. Redstone and Ms. Redstone both are Viacom directors. If four new directors who are aligned with the Redstones were to replace board members loyal to Mr. Dauman, the Redstones would have a majority on the 11-member board.
Six directors loyal to Mr. Dauman vowed last month that they would fight any moves to eject them from the board and said they had made preparations to challenge any dismissal in court.
In a statement on May 27, Mike Lawrence, a spokesman for Mr. Redstone, said: “Sumner Redstone will make every decision with the same deliberation and consideration with which he removed Philippe Dauman and George Abrams as trustees, based on the best interests of shareholders.”
War broke out across Mr. Redstone’s $40 billion media empire last month. Through National Amusements, Mr. Redstone controls about 80 percent of the voting shares in Viacom and CBS. That control will pass to an irrevocable trust after Mr. Redstone’s death or if he is declared incompetent.
On May 20, Mr. Redstone unexpectedly ejected Mr. Dauman and George Abrams, two longtime confidants, from the trust and the board of National Amusements. Mr. Dauman and Mr. Abrams immediately filed suit in Massachusetts, challenging Mr. Redstone’s mental competency and whether he had been unduly influenced by his daughter.
Lawyers for Mr. Redstone shot back with a petition in Los Angeles, asking that the court confirm the validity of the changes that were made to the trust and the board. Ms. Redstone has stated that her father is making his own decisions.
At his prime, Mr. Redstone was known to monitor quarter-point fluctuations in Viacom’s stock price and to quickly dismiss chief executives who did not live up to his expectations.
The company’s stock price has declined about 35 percent in the last year, when the company has reported continued weak earnings. Since news broke on May 20 signaling the potential for new leadership, Viacom’s stock price has increased about 15 percent.
Earlier Thursday, Mr. Dauman said that the entertainment company was continuing its efforts to sell a stake in Paramount Pictures but that it would miss its June target for reaching an agreement for the film and television studio.
Speaking at an investor conference in Manhattan, Mr. Dauman said that “naturally, recent events” had slowed the sales process.
He was alluding to the internal and external turmoil engulfing Viacom, which owns Paramount.
Mr. Redstone has said through representatives that he disapproves of a deal for Paramount, referring to the studio as his “baby.”
Correction: June 9, 2016 An earlier version of the headline on this article described incorrectly a deal that Viacom wants to make involving Paramount Pictures. Viacom wants to sell a stake in Paramount, not buy one.
People with a hankering for a burrito are no longer beelining for Chipotle first. Or second, or third, or fourth.
Moe's Southwest Grill, a Tex-Mex chain with less than half the number of locations as Chipotle, has unseated the former fast casual king as the most popular brand selling Mexican-inspired food, according to an annual survey out Thursday from Harris Poll that measures how people feel about restaurant brands. Moe's has more than 650 restaurants to Chipotle's more than 1,900.
Moe's, which is owned by the same company that operates shopping mall mainstays Auntie Anne's and Cinnabon, claimed the "Brand of the Year" title for fast casual Mexican restaurants for the first time, while Chipotle fell hard. The No. 1 pick for the past three years, it's now ranked below not only Moe's but Taco Bell, Qdoba and Baja Fresh.
The survey is yet another sign of the harsh impact Chipotle's food-safety issues have had on the brand in the past year. Chipotle has been grasping at a former semblance of its reputation as a purveyor of fresh food in the months since dealing with multiple incidences of E. Coli and norovirus at restaurants across the country. Sales tanked, a rude awakening for a brand that had been wildly popularity for years.
The company has said customers are coming back around though, and has tried to lure customers back with offers for free burritos and buy one, get one deals. In the first quarter, sales at stores open at least a year fell nearly 30%, though the company said transaction volume improved as the quarter went on. A a free burrito offer in February had a 67% redemption rate.
But beyond Chipotle's issues, the fast casual restaurant landscape has also become more competitive as chains have gone head to head to offer customers healthier food and new menu options. Qdoba rolled out a new taco menu last year with fillings like tequila lime chicken, steak and bacon; Taco Bell has gained prominence for its breakfast menu and started selling alcohol in some restaurants last year. Moe's is known for a wide selection of ingredients for build-your-own tacos, quesadillas and burrito bowls — the brand also frequently offers limited time menu additions, such as an ancho chili lime rice bowl and seasonal salsas like ghost pepper and mango tomatillo.
Chipotle, meanwhile, has rarely introduced new menu items, and some say the company hasn't done enough to show customers its food is safe to eat, even though it has adopted new food safety protocols.
"Their sales have been under tremendous pressure," says Andrew Charles, an equity research analyst with Cowen and Co. who follows both Chipotle and Qdoba. "Brand perception is down. In retrospect, I just don't think they did enough to convince customers that Chipotle food was safe to eat," pointing out that there are no signs in stores alerting customers to the changes and announcements on social media have been scarce.
Moe's rose to the top for ranking the highest in familiarity, quality and purchase consideration. Harris Poll surveyed more than 97,000 U.S. consumers for their thoughts on more than 3,800 brands. Moe's has benefited from a rapid expansion in recent years, which has given the brand a stronger position as a Chipotle alternative, says Lisa Recoussine, vice president of client services at Nielsen, which owns Harris Poll. Moe's opened 70 new restaurants last year, when sales hit nearly $640 million.
To be sure, Chipotle still has much larger market share and sales, which were $4.5 billion in 2015. According to Placed Insights, an analytics firm that measures traffic trends, just 2.3% of the U.S. population visited a Moe's last month, while nearly 9.4% visited a Chipotle.
Though the poll results show Moe's may be poised to steal more customers, says David Shim, CEO of Placed Insights.
"Moe’s has an opportunity to continue to convert that brand equity into restaurant visits," Shim says, "closing the visitation gap with Chipotle."
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) stock is retreating 5.35% to $5.13 in afternoon trading on Thursday after the company announced it will restart operations of a mining facility in Minnesota ahead of schedule.
The Cleveland-based mining company will resume operations at the United Taconite mining facility in August, two months earlier than expected because of a new contract.
Cliffs Natural Resources gained a new contract with U.S. Steel Canada, a subsidiary of U.S. Steel (X), to supply iron ore pellets in the third and fourth quarters of this year.
The new iron ore order led the company to increase its sales volume guidance to 18 million long tons for the year, compared with the previous outlook of 17.5 million long tons.
"Cliffs' business continues to gain very positive momentum, with the improvement of the existing business with our long established clients and the addition of new ones," CEO Lourenco Goncalves said in a statement.
Many steel-related stocks tend to move with commodity prices, which are declining today, TheStreet's Jim Cramer, portfolio manager of the charitable trust Action Alerts PLUS, wrote in a post on Real Money. Cramer recommends investing in companies based on their fundamentals and other factors.
Separately, Cliffs Natural Resources has a "sell" rating and a letter grade of D at TheStreet Ratings because of the company's feeble earnings per share growth, poor profit margins and disappointing stock performance.
TheStreet Ratings objectively rated this stock according to its "risk-adjusted" total return prospect over a 12-month investment horizon. Not based on the news in any given day, the rating may differ from Jim Cramer's view or that of this article's author.
WASHINGTON – The Federal Aviation Administration announced steps Thursday to encourage pilots with mental-health problems to seek treatment, in the wake of an intentional Germanwings crash a year ago.
But the FAA won't initiate psychological testing for pilots or change the locked cockpit doors that were hardened after the terrorist attacks Sept. 11, 2001.
FAA Administrator Michael Huerta said training would be enhanced for aviation medical examiners, who test pilots for hiring and then at least annually. Airlines and pilot unions will expand pilot assistance programs, Huerta said.
“What we’re trying to do is create an environment where people are self-reporting and looking out for each other,” he said. “We need to do more to remove the stigma surrounding mental illness in the aviation industry so pilots are more likely to self-report, get treated and return to work."
The goal is break down resistance to seeking treatment because pilots can be grounded for certain medical problems or medications.
"Most pilots have conditions that are in fact treatable," Huerta said.
The recommendations came from a committee of industry experts who reviewed pilot testing after the crash of Germanwings flight 9525 on March 24, 2015. The pilot, Andreas Lubitz, intentionally crashed intentionally into the Alps while flying from Barcelona to Dusseldorf, killing 150 people aboard.
The number of intentional airline crashes is exceedingly small, with perhaps a half-dozen in the last three decades. But they draw tremendous attention and scrutiny.
In at least two cases, EgyptAir flight 990 crash off Massachusetts in 1999 and SilkAir flight 185 in Indonesia in 1997, investigators detected pilots fighting for control of a plane before it crashed. But in cases like Germanwings, the pilot acted alone, and Huerta said the U.S. policy to always have two people in the cockpit is intended to always have crew members evaluating each other for health problems.
"That backstops what might be going on in an individual’s personal situation," Huerta said.
Dr. Michael Berry, FAA’s deputy federal air surgeon who co-chaired the committee, said psychological testing for suicide or homicide is a snapshot on the day of a test and wouldn’t be effective in annual medical exams for younger pilots or six-month exams for pilots at least 40 years old
“We did not see the benefit of doing that,” Berry said.
Doctors ask general questions about how pilots are feeling during the tests, and Huerta said training will be enhanced to spot signs of mental illness. Questionnaires that are part of the exams ask pilots about mental-health problems and prescription usage.
“There is a lot of self-reporting that they are supposed to put on there,” Berry said. “They’re really not looking for severe psychiatric disease.”
Capt. Paul Morell, vice president for safety at American Airlines who co-chaired the committee, employee-assistance programs that have focused on drug and alcohol abuse among airline workers will be enhanced to focus on mental-health referrals.
Capt. Joe DePete, who has flown for 37 years for FedEx and the military and who represented the Air Line Pilots Association on the committee, said pilots are regularly checked medically, with simulators and other grading that are “very stringent.”
“My career is a psychological exam,” DePete said. “We are the most scrutinized profession in the world.”
The American Medical Association will debate next week different approaches to mental-health testing, Berry said.
Nearly a year after suspending UberPOP in France, Uber will now have to pay a fine. A criminal court in Paris has sanctioned Uber for its UberPOP operations between February 2014 and July 2015. The court is asking for $900,000 (€800,000) — half of it is a suspended sentence. Two of Uber’s executives are also getting fined.
UberPOP has been the most controversial part of Uber in Europe, and many countries have been trying to ban the service. It was banned in Brussels, the Netherlands and, yes, France. But Uber tried to push the limits a bit too much in France.
Last summer, a French anti-Uber protest turned became a guerrilla warfare as taxi drivers were protesting against Uber’s illegal competition with UberPOP.
With UberPOP, anyone could become a driver without any special professional license. Many taxi drivers saw the service as unfair competition. And according to the French law, a service like UberPOP was illegal. So when an UberPOP driver got fined, Uber paid for the fine.
A few days later, in an unrelated investigation, two Uber France executives were arrested for running an illegal taxi company. The two executives were charged with two different allegations.
First, according to them, Uber is running illegal taxi operations. Uber has been struggling with this charge in many countries, starting with the U.S. In 2010, the company had to change its original name from UberCab to Uber as taxi companies didn’t want to create any confusion.
Second, the police said that Uber France was concealing digital documents. It’s hard to tell what the police was looking for when they raided the French office in March 2015. But apparently, some documents were missing and slowed down the investigation.
In July 2015, Uber finally pulled the plug on UberPOP in France — Uber is still operating in France with professional black car drivers.
Uber France CEO Thibaud Simphal and Uber Europe GM Pierre-Dimitri Gore-Coty also got fined by the court in Paris as they’re personally held responsible for UberPOP. They’ll have to pay $34,000 and $23,000 (€30,000 and €20,000). Similarly, half of these fines are suspended sentences.
Uber can still appeal the judgement, but it doesn’t look like UberPOP is coming back in France any time soon. And these fines shouldn’t hurt Uber too much given that the company just raised $3.5 billion.
SAN FRANCISCO — Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky opened the company's Open Air technical conference Wednesday by addressing recent racist incidents that have taken place on the $25-billion company's home sharing site.
Beyond expressing outrage at the incidents that have impacted African-Americans and transgender guests, Chesky said the company plans to pursue technological innovations to guard against future discriminatory events.
Chesky did not get specific about what those tech solutions could be, but his presence at the event — which was not listed in the program — speaks to both the urgency and seriousness of the issue for the company. Peer-to-peer start-ups such as Uber and Airbnb rely to an unprecedented degree on individuals behaving in respectable ways. Recent events indicate engineering safeguards against bad behavior may be critical to the continued growth of these businesses.
"There's been a lot of news about prejudice and bias on our platform, and this is a huge issue for us," said Chesky in a brief statement before handing the microphone to vice president of engineering Mike Curtis.
"We have zero tolerance for it and we will take swift action," said Chesky. "In the next months, we will be revisiting the design of our site from end to end to see how we can create a more inclusive platform. We're open to ideas. It's a really, really hard problem and we need help solving it. We want to move this forward. I myself have engaged with people who have been victims of discrimination on the platform. We take this seriously."
Racism represents a new hurdle for the start-up, which to date has been in the news due to its battles with cities such as New York and San Francisco over short-term rental rules. On Tuesday, San Francisco's Board of Supervisors voted unanimously to require short-term rental websites like Airbnb to only post rental listings by residents who have registered with the city. If the city finds the residents haven't registered, Airbnb and rivals face fines up to $1,000 a day, per listing.
San Francisco has a chronic housing shortage and the law is aimed at ensuring that the city's housing stock isn't depleted by landlords who are pulling their residential listings in order to make more money through short-term rentals.
As significant as such zoning issues are for Airbnb, racist hosts could well put a bigger dent in its "Belong Anywhere" slogan. It remains to be seen just how tech innovations can help solve for racist incidents, but Open Air's sessions proposed various ways into the issue with topics such as "Scaling the Human Touch with Machine Learning," "Inequality Across Online and Offline Contexts in the 21st Century" and "Can We Use AI to Achieve Gender Neutrality?"
Rapid advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence suggest that there could be ways to better track racist activity on the site.
On Airbnb, users identify themselves with their real name and a photograph — information some hosts use to avoid renting to African Americans.
A Harvard Business School study found widespread discrimination by Airbnb hosts against guests whose names sounded distinctly black. Black Airbnb users have shared their stories of discrimination under the hashtag #AirbnbWhileBlack, and entrepreneurs have started two temporary lodging services in response to the issue called Noirbnb and Noirebnb. "Noir" is black in French.
An African-American man is suing Airbnb for racial discrimination, alleging it did nothing when he was rejected by a host because of his race. And Airbnb banned a host in North Carolina last week after he used racist language to reject a 28-year-old Nigerian woman trying to reserve his home because she was black.
Earlier this week, Shadi Petosky, a Hollywood producer who identifies as transgender, told USA TODAY that she complained to Airbnb last summer when a Minneapolis "super host" declined her booking because she felt uncomfortable. "They (Airbnb) let it slide," said Petosky.
On Monday, Airbnb said a new program is in the works to recruit more underrepresented minorities in computer science and data science. It also tapped civil rights advocate Laura Murphy, the former head of the American Civil Liberties Union’s Washington D.C. Legislative Office, to help lead a "comprehensive" review of how hosts who rent their homes on Airbnb pick guests.
Curtis noted that "everyday we have the challenge of unconscious bias and other sad realities of the human experience. But we're committed to halting this with every tool at our disposal. Our goal is to create a world where everyone can belong everywhere. We take this seriously and we're taking action. But no one company, and no company at all probably, can solve this problem alone. So we're hoping today we can learn from each other."
As for inclusion within its own walls, Airbnb says it will be conducting a company-wide review of its community that will conclude in September with an eye toward making Airbnb more inclusive. Like most tech companies, Airbnb is staffed mostly by white and Asian males.
"We don't have all the answers, but it's a top priority for us," said David King, Twitter's new director of diversity and belonging. "We're going to train on unconscious bias and intercultural communication with our host community. And we'll examine machine learning models that we can implement to affect change on our platform. We believe smart rules and smart tools can make a difference."
While diversity issues took center stage at the gathering, Airbnb also announced three product additions to its site.
Collaborative Wish Lists allows groups planning a trip to collaborate during the booking process in order to select an option that the group agrees on.
For the 11% of people booking through Airbnb for Business who are booking for someone else, Business Travel Booking allows travel managers and executive assistance greater ease in booking travel for co-workers.
And Multi-Party Reviews is aimed at helping guests establish a reputation with Airbnb hosts, and allows hosts to comment on individual members of a visiting party as opposed to just the person who made the booking.
Looks like the futures are trying to hold some horizontal support, but created a new falling trendline of resistance last night as well.
MACD's have rolled over and went negative. Other time frames are rolling over too.
My thoughts are that the high was in yesterday and we'll pullback some now. How much is hard too say as they've kept the volume so low that even with overbought charts there just might not be enough sellers to push it down very far. I hate to be the sucker that tries to short the first pullback as I know there are many "buy the dips" bulls still out there. So I'd rather wait and watch to see if they can rally back up later today or tomorrow and put in a lower high where I'd be more interesting in a short. If not, I'm fine with missing this trade.
This first move down "could" be some A wave down (or wave 1?) and if that's the case we'll see a B wave up (or wave 2?) that makes a lower high, and that's where I want to short at. It's just too risky to short this market when we have no conformation of the high being put in, and we have extremely low volume every day. It's like no big institutions are selling (I don't think they are buying either) and they are needed to get the ball rolling for the bears. For now I'm a cautious bear in waiting.
Should the horizontal support break the next level is the rising trendline ending at 2105, and then 2090 area. Chartwise we "should" breakdown, but again... light volume favors the bulls and I'm just not prepared to be the first sucker to jump on the bear bus. If we do break support then we might go to the "possible" FP on the SPY of 210.37 from Monday... which is about 2090 on this futures chart and into support. If you want to know my gut feeling on this I'd say we do breakdown and head for that FP on the SPY.
MACD's on all time frames are overbought and want to rollover.
This looks like a B wave (as long as it doesn't make a higher high then yesterday) with the A wave down into the close yesterday. That suggests a C wave down will follow, and that could drop to that 2100 area, which is around the 210.37 FP on the SPY I saw yesterday. The key to this move happening is for the futures to break the rising trendline of support that it's ride up on right now. Plus it needs to NOT make a higher high then yesterday. It's tough to take a trade right now with the extremely low volume as even-though the techncials say we should rollover it too easy to hold up the market and not allow it to fall.
It's not new of course as they've been doing this for years. It's actually quite common to hold up the market in low volume periods as they don't want any bears short when they finally move it down. So basically (unless you just want to gamble) you have to watch and wait until you see support break (this time it's the rising trendline) before risking a short. Even still it's only for a day trade I think as next week we have the FOMC meeting and it's also the monthly options expiration week... meaning it's usually a bullish period. Unfortunately it seems likely that nothing big (to the down side) is going to happen until that FOMC day has passed.
For today though I'd look to see a lower high confirmed with a break of the rising trendline before shorting for a likely move down to the 2100 area. Then we'll look again at the charts but I do think this grind and chop will continue until some important news event sparks a move down (or up, but I certainly don't know what on earth could make that happen?).
Futures hitting old rising trendline of resistance and the broke-through horizontal resistance (2105-2108) cleanly now.
MACD's overbought on all time frames and look ready to rollover.
My thoughts are that the bulls are exhausted here and will pullback some today, with decent odds of continuing into a Thursday/Friday low. They hit 2116.25 as the premarket high and that's at least 10 points over the April 20th high, which tells me they ran most (or all) of the stops above that level. Certainly I can't say for 100% that this is "the top" as we still have that 101.89 FP on Apple that showed up yesterday, and the prior one of 101.70 that was never hit. So maybe we pullback this week and run back up to those targets next week? Don't know? But I do think we've topped (meaning, will top) today... at least for a pullback for a day or so.
We also have a new FP on the SPY from last night showing 210.31 at 4:36 pm, which could simply be the pullback target coming this week. Maybe it hits today, or drags out into the expected Thurs/Fri time frame? Don't know? I just think that any rallies back up this morning after the open look like a good short to me. Most of the time we see that happen in the first 30 minutes to 1 hour, so that's what I'll be watching. Doesn't have to rally back up I guess, but usually there are some dip buyers at the open. Ideally it goes back up to "close too" the 2116.25 premarket high, which would be perfect to short at I think.
I know a lot of people are expecting a double top, new all time highs, etc... and I can't say that won't happen as I just don't know for certain anymore then the next trader. I can only go with what I see in the charts for each day and today looks like an "exhaustion" move on the bulls as I feel they have hit most of the stops the bears had overhead and therefore the bulls shouldn't have much fuel left to go up a lot today. The news from Yellen has past now and today there's nothing exciting to spark more upside. Next week of course is the official FOMC meeting so I won't rule out another higher high again around that time. But it's too far out to speculate on, so for now I'm just focused on today... and I'm bear looking for a move down to 210.31 SPY as my target low area (maybe today, or maybe several days?).
Looks like a "Head and Shoulders" pattern but with Yellen speaking today I would bet on any patterns playing out correctly.
MACD's pointing up on this 60 minute chart and several other time frames as well.
Not much to say this morning as everyone is waiting on Janet Yellen to speak. Since the job data last Friday was so bad I'd say most traders are expecting the Fed's to NOT raise the interest rates because the economy isn't recovering. The pre-market being up this morning before the open clearly shows that some traders are front running the meeting as they are expecting a rally from the "No Interest Rate Hike" announcement. Of course if they are wrong they will get caught with their pants down on that trade.
I don't see anything clear in the charts right now to point the next big direction. We are overbought, but a squeeze seems likely now that there's the chance of them not raising rates. It's a tough call her guys but it "feels" like there are still too many bears on board and they plan to squeeze them out before the next drop. Sometimes I just have to go with a "feeling" as opposed to charts and today feels like a very, very tricky day. Today is 06/06/16, which has three 6's in it, or 666... which when you add in the fact that Yellen is speaking and that's it's not their normal Fed meeting day, I certainly think something is brewing.
Also, I get this strange email today from Oanda (a brokerage firm) talking about the Brexit. Here it is: "During events such as the upcoming Brexit referendum, market movements can be significant leading to the potential for large profits, but also large losses. To help ensure our customers are more insulated from such movements, we will be temporarily lowering the maximum leverage available on GBP pairs to 20:1 after the market close on June 17, 2016. The affected pairs will return to prior leverage levels after the market close on June 24, 2016." Doesn't that smell of something big going to happen and those guys know about it?
There's the two day FOMC meeting right before that on June 14th-15th as well. All this adds up to a big move coming, and I don't think it's to the upside. Short term (as in today) I do think they will squeeze the bears and go up. But there's still the Thursday/Friday low the week before the monthly option expiration week, so after some bear squeeze happens we should rollover and drop into a low by the end of this week. Then we might rally back up into the FOMC meeting next week and finally drop off a cliff after that. For now though I'm not doing anything today as it's likely to be wild after Yellen speaks. Best to watch this one.
The relaxed dress code at JPMorgan Chase reflects the informal style of the technology industry, which now competes with Wall Street companies for recruits.
Wall Street may be known as the home of one of the most buttoned-up industries in the country, but JPMorgan Chase is letting its employees relax a little bit.
The firm told its 237,420 workers on Friday that it was making business casual its everyday dress code, according to an internal memorandum reviewed by DealBook.
The move makes JPMorgan the latest company to acquiesce to the more casual nature of today’s work. Even the most staid of corporations, including General Electric and IBM, have moved away from uniforms of white shirts and dark ties. It is also a nod to the informal style of the tech industry, which has been successful in recruiting workers who might have once preferred more traditional careers.
The tech industry and Silicon Valley have influenced Wall Street fashion in the past, when an earlier generation of dot-com start-ups burned bright. For proof of today’s impact, look at how G.E. is trying to court software developers — not exactly known for wearing double-breasted blazers — in some of its latest commercials.
“More clients are dressing informally, and many parts of our business are already business casual,” JPMorgan’s operating committee wrote in the memo, which was reported on Friday by The Wall Street Journal. “And while it may not be possible to dress business casual at all times or in all areas, we believe having a firmwide guideline is the right thing to do.”
JPMorgan employees have been dressing slightly more casually in recent years, sometimes drawing inspiration from their leadership. Jamie Dimon, the bank’s chief executive, went tieless at a meeting with employees in Bournemouth, England, on Friday. Joining him in the business casual look was George Osborne, the British chancellor of the Exchequer.
Information technology workers and other behind-the-scenes employees already dress more informally. And bankers in certain regions, like Silicon Valley, sometimes wear khakis and sweaters in lieu of Ermenegildo Zegna suits or Diane von Furstenberg dresses. Even the company’s most traditional of deal makers, the former vice chairman James B. Lee Jr. — known for his slicked-back hair and business shirts with white collars and cuffs — directed his bankers to dress in hoodies during the run-up to Facebook’s initial public offering of stock.
Do not expect bankers to switch out their hand-tailored suits for worn denim at their next meeting with a titan of industry as a matter of course, however. The memo specifies that employees should “dress for that client” — which still gives deal makers some sartorial leeway if they are meeting with, say, a technology entrepreneur used to wearing hoodies and sneakers.
And denim generally isn’t considered appropriate, unless the employee has permission to wear it.
Employees at bank branches still need to wear specific Chase apparel, unless the managers have specifically allowed otherwise.
If employees try to push the boundaries of the dress code, they do so at their peril. A set of frequently asked questions about corporate attire warns that if employees are not dressed appropriately, they “may be subject to disciplinary action, up to and including termination of employment.”
Here is what is considered acceptable under JPMorgan’s new guidelines:
• Formal business attire
• Casual pants, capri pants, dresses and skirts of appropriate length for the workplace
• Business-appropriate casual shirts, polo shirts, sweaters, tops and blouses (including JPMorgan or Chase-branded apparel, naturally)
• Dress shoes and dress sandals
• Minimal, tasteful jewelry and fragrances
And here is what is forbidden, even in a casual environment:
• Athletic clothing — sweatpants, sweatshirts, T-shirts, jumpsuits, yoga pants or leggings (the last of which is helpfully defined as “tightfitting stretch pants”)
Continue reading the main story
• Shorts, beachwear, halter tops, tank tops or crop tops
• Flip-flops, clogs, rubber-soled floater sandals or slippers
• Hats or hoods
• Distracting, tight, revealing or exceptionally loose or low-cut clothing
• Torn or frayed clothing or clothing attachments that have profane, offensive or religious messages
• Offensive or distracting visible tattoos, body piercings or unprofessional hair styles
With the pace of US job creation slowing to the lowest level since 2010 investors turn their attention to Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen for clues on the timing of the next interest rate rise. Here’s what to watch in the coming days:
Investors will tune in to Ms Yellen’s speech to the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia on Monday as they continue to digest Friday’s disappointing jobs report. “Markets will be waiting with bated breath to see whether she strikes a more hawkish tone or one of continued cautiousness ahead of the June FOMC meeting,” said economists at Bank of America.
Following weak job growth numbers, expectations for a rate rise in June slid to just 2 per cent, while odds of a move in July nearly halved to 27.5 per cent from a day earlier, according to Bloomberg calculations of movements in federal funds futures.
The slow pace of hiring comes in contrast to recent hawkish commentary from a handful of Fed officials and from comments in the latest Beige Book, which indicated “tight labour markets were widely noted” across the 12 reporting districts.
Investors will also keep an eye on the Jolts report that Ms Yellen tracks. Economists expect there were 5.65m job openings in April, down from 5.76m the previous month.
On the political front investors will keep an eye on US presidential primaries and caucuses in California, Montana, New Jersey, and New Mexico among others.
Some 475 delegates are at stake in the Democratic primary in California where former secretary of state Hillary Clinton will take on Vermont senator Bernie Sanders. According to an average of recent polls compiled by Real Clear Politics, Mrs Clinton has just a 1.5 percentage point lead over her Republican opponent Donald Trump.
Mrs Clinton has accused Mr Trump of pushing a “dangerously incoherent” foreign policy and having a temperament that risked involving the US in a nuclear war.
Geopolitics in the South China Sea, cyber security and economic co-operation are all subjects that Treasury secretary Jacob Lew and secretary of state John Kerry will discuss when they visit Beijing next week.
Futures were in a rising wedge but brokedown on bad jobs data
MACD's were overbought yesterday on all time frames and still are this morning.
Looks like the jobs data might have put in our top for us. Still not positive of course, but if they can rally back up some later today (and/or Monday) to put in a lower high then we should be done on the upside for awhile. This is really the first cracks we've saw in a long time but it's not something you chase. Only the foolish bears will chase this opening gap down. Give this some time to see if it's going to bounce. First support level is at 2090 area. If we rally back up into the close to make a lower high it will form a nice right shoulder for a newly forming "Head and Shoulders" pattern.
Because this is the first nice down move in awhile we should expect the bulls to buy this dip. Let them run it back up to see if they can put in that lower high for us bears. The jobs data has a history of reversing in the other direction after the 8:30am number is released and the first knee jerk reaction happens. It's very likely that we'll find an early low and turn back up later in the day for that lower high. We are looking for conformation of a trend change. We need a lower high on any rally for that to happen. Then we want to short the wave 3 or C wave down. So, give this time as I do think they will go back up later today.
So I would NOT short this open. I do think we are going back up from this gap down. The question is... will it be a lower high to make our "possible" right shoulder on a H&S pattern, or a higher high? That's still unknown. What has high odds though is an early low and a move up later to squeeze out bears shorting the opening gap down.
Meaning that we have to "prove" that the top was put in yesterday. It's still "unconfirmed", and we won't know until we see a lower high put in on the rally up today. If they continue up and make a higher high then we did the right thing by being patient and not getting short too early.
Stuck in a triangle but looks like a "WV" pattern forming, which is bullish
MACD's are flat-lined on this 60 minute chart, and the 2 hour as well. The 6 and 4 hour charts are overbought still and pointing down.
They never make it easy it seems. We should have already rolled over by now but it seems there is an invisible hand under the market holding it up. The daily chart of the SPX cash is clearly overbought and ready to rollover, but no one seems to be selling yet? I can only guess everyone is waiting on the rate hike decisions by the Fed's on June 14th-15th... which I also think traders expect Janet Yellen to talk about this coming Monday, June 6th. Maybe she does, maybe she doesn't? Also, the ECB decided to hold rates today with their policy decision, so will the Fed's do the same here? Whatever the plan, all this manipulation makes it hard to trade anything but some intraday moves.
So what's the plan for today? Good question and I don't have a clear answer. The charts are bearish and want to take this pig down but without any real volume or news event to get it started you have to stay in a neutral position. The recent pullback we've had since Tuesday could be some kind of small wave 4 down with a small wave 5 up yet to come? We are stuck inside this triangle now but we've made a bullish pattern called a "WV" (slightly tilted to the right), which is the opposite of a "MA" pattern. The 2 bottoms of the "W" are at 2086 on 5/31 and 2083 on 6/1, with the 3 tops of the "W" at 2101 (5/31), 2099 (5/31) and 2099 (6/1). The bottom of the "V" is at 2092 (6/2) and the "breakout" point of the right side of that "V" is around 2098 today, which "if" it breaks out will point to an upside target of 2120 or so.
Now look... by NO means am I chasing this market up and going long. That's just what the pattern "suggests" and patterns DO FAIL from time to time. We could just as easily breakdown and lose the rising trendline of support that we've been riding from the 2022 low on May 19th. With the bearish chart patterns I lean more toward a breakdown then a break up but I'm not ready to go heavy short right now... nor will I go long. I may have to wait on Janet to Yell on Monday like all the other traders... or gamble on a short just based on the charts. Problem with that idea is the fact that they can be realigned over the weekend to support some 20-30 point rally (brief it should be, but still... who wants to ride out that much pain?). So I'll just have to play this hour by hour today and see how it all unfolds. For now I'm neutral until a breakdown from the rising trendline or a breakout of the overhead resistance occurs.
New falling trendline will be resistance on any rally up today.
MACD's are still going down but could turn up today and allow a move up to that new falling trendline.
Yesterday I thought we might pullback to the green rising trendline but it broke and we fell to 2088 where there was some horizontal support. Then we rallied back up and got back above that green rising trendline. This morning we broke it again and have now formed a lower high from yesterdays late day rally back up. This is setting up to be a triangle pattern, especially if we rally back up again today and hit then new falling trendline. That might not happen... but if they keep the volume low there's a chance it still will.
The bulls have several things going for them. One is the double bottom support, two is the longer rising trendline is nearby and three the 60 minute chart is getting "short term" oversold, which might give them a bounce. But the 6 hour chart (also the 2 and 4 hour charts) support more downside to come as they are just rolling over and have plenty of run to go deeper before they get oversold. On the upside there's resistance at the 2092-2094 area and on the downside the first support beyond the longer rising trendline is the 2080 horizontal level.
To me it looks like we are in a topping process and will continue to make lower highs. I think the fear of what Janet Yellen may say on Monday, as well as the overbought larger time frame charts, will keep this market heading down... but it should continue to have these swings until we get the waterfall move down, and that will probably be next week. My thoughts are that we have some 3 or 5 wave move down in front of Janet speaking, then an ABC up around that day (could be before or after she speaks) and finally a much bigger 5 wave move down that will start breaking lot's of important support levels below.
Futures went through horizontal support (blue trendline) and double topped over the weekend. Support is now the shorter rising trendline (in green) and the longer trendline (ending around 2085) as well as the horizontal trendline (in blue).
MACD's are very tired looking on all time frames and want to rollover and go negative.
Hope everyone had a great holiday weekend... and now it's time to get back to fighting SkyNet. We are clearly at a very tricky point now with a double top and such a bullish looking chart. I'm sure everyone now is expecting a new all time high, which I can't blame them with the look of the charts. And we have that new FP on Apple showing 109 and change, which would certainly put market at new highs. But we've been down this road several times in the past and until it's proven otherwise I have to think this is still just a lower high being made.
Since today is the first day back from a 3 day holiday weekend I wouldn't expect a lot of action. We kinda look like the 4/20 topping period where we topped, the pulled back slightly and rallied back up later to make a lower high before starting a 40 point drop the following several days. Janet Yellen speaks next Monday June 6th, so could see pullback in front of that, just based on the "unknown" as traders aren't sure if the Fed's will raise interest rates or not? Uncertainty is something the market hates, and considering we are at a double top with strong resistance overhead, and overbought to boot, I'd say we have good odds of at least a pullback.
Now... the question after that will be "are we going to go back up and make a new all time high or not?", and I can't answer that of course. During these times near a new high SkyNet does a really good job of tricking the masses. So for now I'll look for that break of support as the first clue. It might not happen until tomorrow though... possibly late today near the close, as I think we'll chop around and work our way over to that shorter rising trendline in green by 4pm. But I just don't see it breaking on the first trading day back from a long weekend. I'll be looking closely at how the charts line up late in the day as this morning I don't see much to speculate on.
Simply put, I'm looking for the double top to hold today and a pullback to start. I won't chase this on the upside if the double top doesn't hold. I'll just wait for the bearish setup to arrival. Right now I see no safe trade long or short.
A police car is seen outside the Paris offices of Google as French police carry out a search as part of a tax fraud investigation.
TECHNOLOGY French police raid Google over tax issue
Police raided Google’s French headquarters Tuesday looking for evidence of “aggravated tax fraud,” one of Europe’s most conspicuous attempts yet to cast a U.S. technology leader as a manipulative scofflaw.
The probe reflects European indignation looming over Google and other U.S. tech companies as they amass huge amounts of cash while cutting their tax bills through complex maneuvers that shield their profits.
Google issued a statement Tuesday maintaining that it complies with all laws. The company, owned by Alphabet, also said it is cooperating with the French investigation.
Other major tech companies, including Apple and Facebook, also have been skewered in Europe for scrimping on their tax bills. At the end of last year, the U.S. technology sector had stockpiled $777 billion in cash, nearly half of the $1.68 trillion held by non-financial companies in the country, reported a study by Moody’s Investors Service.
Nearly 90 percent of the cash held by five tech companies is being kept in overseas accounts.
France’s investigation is focused on an Ireland subsidiary that enables Google to do business with customers across Europe while minimizing its taxes, known as profit-shifting. European regulators have been pressing companies to pay taxes in the jurisdictions in which they do business.
An anti-corruption unit and 25 information technology experts descended on Google’s Paris office, according to France’s financial prosecutor’s office. French daily Le Parisien said the raid took place at dawn and involved about 100 investigators.
— Associated Press
ACQUISITIONS
Monsanto rejects Bayer’s takeover bid
Monsanto rejected a $62 billion takeover offer from Bayer as too low, while saying it remains open to further deal talks, putting pressure on the German pharmaceutical giant to raise a bid that has already sent its stock tumbling.
“We believe in the substantial benefits an integrated strategy could provide to growers and broader society, and we have long respected Bayer’s business,” Hugh Grant, chief executive of the U.S. seeds company, said in a statement Tuesday. “However, the current proposal significantly undervalues our company and also does not adequately address or provide reassurance for some of the potential financing and regulatory execution risks related to the acquisition.”
Bayer will likely come back with a higher bid, Jonas Oxgaard, an analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York, said in a note, adding that an offer below $135 per share would be “challenging” for Monsanto to accept.
Buying Monsanto would create the world’s biggest supplier of farm chemicals and seeds.
Also in Business
● Twitter is giving users more room to tweet. In coming months, photos, videos and other media won’t count against what is now a 140-character limit. The change is another attempt by the San Francisco company to make its messaging service easier to use and to attract new users. Twitter has struggled for years to find a cure for slow user growth. The number of people using Twitter is less than one-fifth those actively using Facebook.
● Hewlett Packard Enterprise said it plans to spin off and merge its enterprise services business with Computer Sciences. HPE, which houses the former Hewlett-Packard’s corporate hardware and services division, said the merger is expected to produce cost synergies of about $1 billion in the first year after close.
● Americans ramped up their purchases of new homes in April to the highest level since January 2008, a strong start to the spring buying season. The Commerce Department said new home sales jumped 16.6 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 619,000, up from 531,000 in the previous month. March’s total was revised higher.
● Increased mortgage borrowing was behind a 1.1 percent rise in U.S. household debt in the first quarter, with slowdowns in other areas such as credit-card balances and auto loans, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Total mortgage debt rose 1.5 percent from the final quarter of 2015 to $8.37 trillion, the highest level since 2011, according to the New York Fed’s quarterly report on household debt and credit. Auto-loan debt rose to a record high of $1.07 trillion going back to 2003.
● Huawei Technologies filed patent suits against Samsung Electronics in the United States and China after the two were not able to reach a licensing deal over the use of technology fundamental to how mobile networks operate. In a lawsuit filed Tuesday in federal court in San Francisco, Huawei claims Samsung infringes as many as 11 patents related to the industry standard for fourth-generation mobile devices. It’s seeking cash compensation. In the public portion of the complaint, Huawei doesn’t seek any order to block sales of Samsung products in the United States. The patents cover communications networks and software to operate LTE networks established through international standard-setting organizations, Huawei said.
Sumner M. Redstone and Phyllis Redstone, then his wife, in 1998.
If you are a Redstone, apparently, you are never too young or too old to be part of a lawsuit.
In new court documents filed Wednesday, directors of National Amusements added Sumner M. Redstone’s two great-grandchildren as so-called nominal defendants to their suit challenging his mental capacity. They also added Phyllis Redstone, 91, as a nominal defendant. She was the first wife of Mr. Redstone, the ailing media mogul. The two divorced after 52 years of marriage.
As nominal defendants, the two children and Phyllis Redstone do not bear any responsibility or fault. They were named in the suit because they are among the beneficiaries of the trust that will control the fate of Mr. Redstone’s $40 billion empire after he dies or is declared incompetent.
The ages of the children are not clear, but both are younger than 6. They are grandchildren of Mr. Redstone’s daughter, Shari Redstone.
Also on Wednesday, lawyers for Philippe P. Dauman, the chief executive of Viacom, and George S. Abrams, a longtime Viacom director, filed a motion with Norfolk Probate and Family Court in Massachusetts to expedite proceedings in the case.
The two men claim in the suit, which was filed Monday, that Mr. Redstone was not competent and was manipulated by his daughter last week when he ejected them from the trust and the board of National Amusements, the private theater chain that controls 80 percent of the voting stock in Viacom and CBS. Lawyers for Mr. Redstone have filed a separate petition in Los Angeles County Superior Court, asking that a judge declare the decisions valid.
Wednesday’s amended complaint included the accusation that Ms. Redstone has “frequently repeated to the Viacom board” that Mr. Dauman should be replaced, as part of her continuing rivalry with him.
In a separate court filing on Wednesday, Mr. Dauman and Mr. Abrams requested a hearing for the earliest available date and that the process of obtaining evidence start immediately.
Rapid legal proceedings were necessary, they said, to protect the assets of the trust and because of what they characterized as the rapid deterioration of Mr. Redstone’s physical and mental health. Mr. Redstone will turn 93 on Friday.
Mr. Dauman and Mr. Abrams proposed that evidence gathering include at least one medical examination of Mr. Redstone and taking the testimony of Shari Redstone. The entire process should be completed within three months, they suggested.
“The substantial assets in the trust are threatened by Shari’s invalid attempt to take over the trust and its controlling interest in NAI,” the motion for expedited proceedings stated, referring to National Amusements. “There can be no doubt that these actions are aimed directly at effectuating control of Viacom.”
Nancy Sterling, a spokeswoman for Shari Redstone, said in a statement, “We are looking forward to an expedited dismissal of this meritless suit.”
Representatives for Mr. Redstone could not immediately be reached for comment.
Mr. Dauman and Mr. Abrams also asked for a trial to be held in no more than four months, or before the end of September. If a judge concurs, that would mean that the Massachusetts proceedings would occur before the Oct. 18 hearing date set for Mr. Redstone’s petition.
Separately, Frederic Salerno, the lead independent director of Viacom put in a new request on Thursday to schedule a meeting with Mr. Redstone. In an email to one of Mr. Redstone’s lawyers, Mr. Salerno outlined an agenda for the meeting: 1. Greetings and pleasantries; 2. A Q&A session on Mr. Redstone’s thought on last week’s board strategy meeting and Paramount; 3. Anything else Mr. Redstone wanted to share; 4. Goodbyes.
UPDATE: Gawker responded Thursday afternoon, saying Silicon Valley needs a watchdog, and Gawker Media was the right outlet for the job.
"The refusal to engage in public relations or access journalism—the refusal to lubricate the flow of venture capital—is usually the mark of an outlet’s credibility. For Thiel and his peers in Silicon Valley, such a refusal amounts to repudiating their way of life," Gawker wrote.
END UPDATE:
Wednesday was not a good day for Gawker Media: first, a Florida judge refused to reduce the $140 million in damages awarded by a jury in the invasion-of-privacy suit brought by professional wrestler Hulk Hogan against Gawker for posting a sex tape. The judge then refused to order a new trial.
Ars had described the March verdict as a "life threatening" event for the New York-based network of news and gossip sites. Now it has been revealed that Silicon Valley venture capitalist Peter Thiel, who a decade ago was outed as being "totally gay" by Gawker's now-defunct Valleywag site, has bankrolled Hulk Hogan's litigation.
"It’s less about revenge and more about specific deterrence," Thiel told The New York Times. "I saw Gawker pioneer a unique and incredibly damaging way of getting attention by bullying people even when there was no connection with the public interest."
Thiel, whose net worth is estimated at $2.7 billion, cofounded PayPal and invested early in Facebook. According to Thiel's Wednesday interview:
Mr. Thiel said that Gawker published articles that were “very painful and paralyzing for people who were targeted.” He said, “I thought it was worth fighting back.”
Mr. Thiel added: “I can defend myself. Most of the people they attack are not people in my category. They usually attack less prominent, far less wealthy people that simply can’t defend themselves.” He said that “even someone like Terry Bollea who is a millionaire and famous and a successful person didn’t quite have the resources to do this alone.”
Mr. Thiel said that he had decided several years ago to set his plan in motion. “I didn’t really want to do anything,” he said. “I thought it would do more harm to me than good. One of my friends convinced me that if I didn’t do something, nobody would.”
Mr. Thiel has donated money to the Committee to Protect Journalists and has often talked about protecting freedom of speech. He said he did not believe his actions were contradictory. “I refuse to believe that journalism means massive privacy violations,” he said. “I think much more highly of journalists than that. It’s precisely because I respect journalists that I do not believe they are endangered by fighting back against Gawker.”
Gawker now hopes the verdict would be overturned on appeal. Gawker Media's properties are valued at an estimated $83 million.
Judge Pamela Campbell also denied Gawker's request Wednesday to demand Hulk Hogan's legal team provide documents about Thiel's involvement.
The Thiel financing revelation highlights a dark side of litigation financing. There are numerous venture-backed companies that invest in litigation to profit on payouts, especially in the product liability and personal injury fields. But this is the first time we've seen a venture capitalist financing litigation out of what appears to be spite.
