Thursday, June 13, 2024

Blow Off Top Likely To Happen Next!

But after that, I think Friday will sell off some...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4RNpfHKGW4M)

It seems that most all of the short term charts have been reset from overbought to oversold over the last few days.  Both the 60 and 30 minute charts still have a little room to go on the "downside", but with the extremely light volume I doubt that the actual price level will drop that much.

This means that we could see a little weakness in the morning, but I expect those 2 charts to roll back up fairly quickly and push the market up for a new high.  Yes, I know that sucks for us bears... but that's what the charts say right now (and of course the charts "DO" still work for the bulls, just not the bears).

After Thursday... who knows?  If the market gets overbought again on all the short term charts, the I'd expect Friday to sell off some.  But calling a top seems almost impossible in this insanely manipulated market.  It truly is totally NUTS! ...but how can you go long at these levels?  I can't, and won't.  You'll lose big time if you do so in options.  The calls will be destroyed with the falling vix, even if the market goes up as you want it to.  It's a "no win situation" no matter what you do!

So for now, let's just take it one day at a time.  Tomorrow is looking very bullish too me, so I'm still looking for that blow off top to happen before I get short again.  I've been burnt too many times right now, and my butt is sore.  If we get that big move up early in the morning tomorrow, then it could sell off into the close... which at that point I'd be looking to get short again.

If it's strong all day then I'll have to wait until Friday to see if it looks ready to roll over.  I know we are close to a top, but I can't pick it exactly... bummer 🙁   This could be one of those week's that puts in a final top followed by a bloody next week, as we never know what bad news they could release over the weekend?  Remember, most crashes are on Friday's and Monday's... just food for thought.

Good luck everyone...

Red

P.S. Don't forget about our 14.86 FP on the VIX, which should be hit if we get a blow off top tomorrow.

Red
Author: Red

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Muzzalee
Muzzalee
13 years ago

Hi Red,

another article worth a read – I’ve thought this myself for sometime but who knows – if it is the case then the ramp up will keep going. And from the figures I have read, this type of war is a much cheaper alternative to conventional warfare.

http://slopeofhope.com/2011/02/qe2-and-the-art-of-economic-war.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2Ftradeblogs%2Fthe_slope_of_hope_with_ti+%28Slope+of+Hope+with+Tim+Knight%29

Good luck mate and I think you are right about a blow off top on the morrow

Muzza

steveo77
13 years ago

First, I have another full-on version Market Analysis report with audio, and watchlist trade ideas. The real deal for you, for free. Linked here with permission of Breakpoint Trades. Check it out.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2011/02/aud-short-breakpoint-trades-full.html

zstock7
13 years ago

overseas trading is a bloodbath. EVERY retail asian investors, is selling US, because of CSCO, It takes about 2 weeks to unwind the selling. If you think buying the dip is going to work—well… get in and out fast, over the next two weeks. or even better, just get out….wait for march rally

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

I agree risk outweighs the reward. The game has changed.

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Call me crazy zstock, but I think with the money that’s rolling in the next several months, THEY are going to try to double-top the dow. I mean, all-time double-top. It just hit me today.

I think that’s Madman Bernanke’s goal for the end of this round of QE. Think 1999.

Or, there’s QE 3, 4, 5, 6, etc, this could be just the half-way point to a major, unbelievably overbloated market.

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  ACP

Did you see how the market was barely above water when the dollar was down 1% yesterday, yet today, the dollar is up and the market is barely underwater? This is a display of absolute power…

…as long as the money flows.

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  ACP

Hi ACP, I’m going back to buying all the dips, just like you said to do.:)

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Not sure if FP’s work with the ES, but this one indicates we will go back up at some point soon…

http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/fp-ES-02-10-2011.jpg

BullKiller
BullKiller
13 years ago

wow.. anyone see AKAM ? he got hammered.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Since we gapped down (instead of gapping up) we should be in sell mode for the first few hours of the day. While it could stay that way all day, (I doubt it), I do expect it to turn back up and rally to fulfill the vix FP before the real selling begins.

For today though, I expect that they will fill that gap around 131.18 spy, and may even dip a little lower too. Just don’t get caught into thinking that “this is it”, as the volume and the vix don’t support any fear here.

richie
richie
13 years ago

risk off kinda day right now…..

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Patiently waiting for NFLX to hit $240.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Maybe we will just have these fake sell offs from now on.

It’s not good enough for the market to just go up anymore. Now it has to sell off, so the gangsters can buy precious calls for dirt cheap.

Double D
Double D
13 years ago

Mubarak stepping down tonight – I guess the markets like that news

TDEMT
13 years ago

Interesting……like I have mentioned before though….daily open interest and volume have dropped off significantly as prices continued to rise to new highs. Less and less committing to the long side…pro’s are stepping out……

Keith
thedailyeminitrader.com

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  TDEMT

Yes, volume has dropped off a cliff… which is why it’s about useless to try and short (with options) for any decent multiday pullback. They simply won’t let this market go down.

Diablos
Diablos
13 years ago

Hi Red,

I recall a super low SPY print the same day (3/30/2010) the DIA print of 118.16 was seen. It was 20 something. Do you have a screenshot of that one?

Thanks

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Diablos

It’s on the toolbar below under “Images”… third one from left to right, second row. It’s for 20.16 on the SPY! Now that’s one scary print!

(let me know if you can’t access the toolbar, and I’ll dig up the link to it)

richie
richie
13 years ago

red,
so it seems that the primary dealers are looking to suck the VOLUME OUT of the market so they can play liquidity rebate fun and melt it up. So volume is the KEY….. how do you FAKE volume so we can take back the markets???

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Well, I’m off by a day as usual. The 60 and 30 minute charts are still in negative territory on the histogram bars, but they are inching up close to the zero level now.

The 15 and 5 minute chart are now rolling over toward going below the zero level. If this continues (which I believe it will), these 2 charts will be oversold by the end of the day and aligned back up with the 30 and 60 minute charts.

This will have all 4 of this short term charts pointing up into tomorrow morning. If we are ever going to get a blow off top, it will have the best chance when all of these charts are in agreement with each other… in other words, Friday!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Here’s the live feed for President Mubarak, who is scheduled to speak (about stepping down) at 3pm EST…

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

richie
richie
13 years ago

red,

more important than mubarak right now, is the senior economist from one of china’s key state banks – said for china to SELL all its bonds [500 billion] of fannie and freddie paper!! this is game theory for the bond market…they are telling the fed/administration to stop monetizing debt now or else! http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chinese-economist-advises-country-sell-its-500-billion-gse-holdings-qe2-ends

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

Whenever this thing stops spinning it’s going to take us bears by surprise I believe. I just don’t know “when” that will be?

richie
richie
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

red,

i would very much welcome a SURPRISE right around now!! something with peanut butter – i have a craving for some peanut butter!! and jam too!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

It’s coming, as there is no way they can continue “if” the new currency deal really happens… and I believe it will. The “when” part is what we don’t know?

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

I could actual make money if I had the guts to go long… but I just can’t do it! LOL

Gold_Gerb
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

you can. just buy 1 call.
and DARE the market to make it worth something.
it’s lots of fun!

BullKiller
BullKiller
13 years ago

what a strong market…. down all day.. and rally back up… with strong close.. tomorrow we will be heading to the moon. 🙂 grab your spacesuits boys.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Look at them sweep out the stops above and below! What B.S.!

richie
richie
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

red,

it just wears you down….all this corruption wears you down!

Double D
Double D
13 years ago

Mubarak not stepping down til September – I think the protests continue on… biggest one yet was scheduled for tomorrow

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Double D

What time? Maybe they rally hard in the morning to put in a new high and then sell it all off into the close on the protesting? (all planned and timed out that way of course)

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Rally tomorrow with a blow off top, or tank? Which one? I have no idea at this point? Lot’s of stop sweeping that last 10 minutes… which means a big move is likely coming tomorrow!

Gold_Gerb
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

sweeping stop, is that what they call them?
dam!

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Gold_Gerb

here’s another sweeping stop EWZ or this is a short term target price 76.
I’m going back to buying the dips. I have a lot of lost opportunities, from staying out of longs, this week.
http://zstock7.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/EWZ-2-10-FP.jpg

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

The Deutsch bourse buying out the Nyse is the bell ringing at the top. Unfortunately, it hasn’t been announced yet. Dow rsi is too high also. Daily upcount for all indices now at 8 consecutive closes above the close 4 periods earlier. A close at this level or above will give us the vaunted 9 count to go along with the weekly 10 count.

zstock7
13 years ago

Whatever hit I’m going to take on longs, I could have more than made that money going long this week.
Hi ACP, I’m going back to buying all the dips, just like you said to do.:)

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

Yeah, I don’t see what would really tank this market except cutting off the ca$h……eur/usd down 1.30 EOD and the market was flat? I mean, if you BTFD and the momentum changes, so what? Just take your small haircut and change strategery again.

I needed a moment of clarity……

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  ACP

I analyzed what would have happened that -160 Friday, and buying that dip would have resulted in a smalll loss, that would’ve been recouped on Monday. Hell, they could change the program tomorrow and screw everybody, but the haircut would be no bigger than any other haircut I’ve taken unsuccessfully shorting!

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  ACP

And yes, I still think Bernanke is a MADMAN!!!

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  ACP

He’s a A$$hat!

Robert
13 years ago

Nice consolidation …… Next week OPX, some more major upside supported by POMO…….

richie
richie
13 years ago

red,

check yer email..

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Red,

I’m still showing the FP of 14.86 on the VIX as a 52 week low on my account posted on 2/8/11. Is it possible that was simply an error or not really a FP? From watching your posts, it doesn’t seem like FP’s stay up that long normally. In your experience how long do FP’s normally “show” themselves?

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Maybe it had to go down to almost tag the lower BB so it could generate a sell signal for the market – just a thought – at this point if it is a real FP – it would only indicate that at some point after we tank that we will recover and then off to the moon 🙂

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago

CMG good setup for short? After announcing it was up alot like $20 AH, right now it is down almost $9 from yesterday close. Got downgraded – some analyst say it is over valued (No.. you can’t be serious…. over valued…WTF) anyway, aside from my sarcasm it is worth looking at. It still has yet to fill the gap around $180. Just a thought.

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago
Reply to  Double Dee

Looks like I was wrong…

richie
richie
13 years ago

RED?? you ok?? you have been quiet??

clap once if you’re OK, clap twice if you are NOT……

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago

This looks like more of the same today…. I am sick of this BS…..

ACP
ACP
13 years ago
Reply to  Double Dee

These bastards will keep pumping until the last penny is gone, probably beyond June. And when the market slips in the summer, The Madman will make a speech and threaten any who dares challenge him. There will be a prolonged period of irrational exuberance, but the time will come when there is cumuppance, and it WILL be brutal……

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

is it okay if I say that I hope Ben and the rest of the corrupt burn in hell, on this website?

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

not only ok but welcomed with open arms!!! lol

ACP
ACP
13 years ago

Appropriate title for a movie in this market:

http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/1810150358/info

skaps112
13 years ago

Green we go

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  skaps112

we broke through resistance on Spy I have 132.75

Anna
13 years ago

Hey Gang! Red just texted me and his internet is down. so he cannot post. he will be on as soon as he can Anna

richie
richie
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

anna,

thanks for the update….. i knew something was up with red – glad to know its just a connection problem…

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

Hi richie! 🙂 yeah he’s good i am having tech issues too, my 1200 laptop only 1year and few days old crashed this a.m WTF! lol

BullKiller
BullKiller
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Anna TXT.. red back and ask him if he wants some BEAR MEAT for dinner lol

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  BullKiller

hahahhaha i sure do what the F!

Anna
13 years ago
Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago

Wow it actually looks like the VIX FP can be hit now as it is falling off a cliff and them markets are yet again going to new highs. I think we are in POMO time right now… maybe this will be the blow off top…

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago

ok now they are saying that Mubarak will be stepping down… so which is it???? and does it matter to the markets – nothing matters… everything good or bad seems to make this farce of a market soar….
someday….

Yorx
Yorx
13 years ago

As long as POMO is in effect, you can expect this melt up. If the FED cannot keep long term rates in check, then POMO may backfire at some point, but so far, so good according to Benny…

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago

Intraday FP on SLV of 29.15??? @ 11:06am
not sure if FP but it is still on charts and only stayed there for a second

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  Double Dee

Good catch. I got out just before it tanked.

richie
richie
13 years ago

dee,

check your email…i sent you something….

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago
Reply to  richie

got it – did you get my reply – some dumb questions – hope you can help 🙂

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Egypt is now off the front page. i see nothing to turn markets. POMO continues.
Guess I better be a bull.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

no, go look at marketwatch, they have his ugly face on there with a headline.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

WITCH UGLY FACE?

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Mubaraks face was up there. one eye was wide open and his other was half open. He looks like a real evel sob.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

He may be an evil SOB but he does not hold a candle to the Brotherhood

TDEMT
13 years ago

YMH11 moving higher to possibly retest the highs……buyers on the way up getting ready to be an entry opportunity for the larger shorts @ 12233 level.

Keith
thedailyeminitrader.com
Sign up for FREE!

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  TDEMT

The FED will not allow this market to drop.

Yorx
Yorx
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Exactly JIM. If we drop some, POMO will just pick it up again and move the markets higher. When they announce the end of POMO,…watch the yeild curves and GET OUT OF EQUITEIS!

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago
Reply to  Yorx

Thats a min 6 months from today.

skaps112
13 years ago

FP of $74.19 on LVS today. If that’s the case, this market is def. headed higher.

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago
Reply to  skaps112

OMG

Yorx
Yorx
13 years ago

14.86 VIX Fake Print on the way….

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago
Reply to  Yorx

Wish it would just hit and get it over with. What does 14.86 = in SPX?

Yorx
Yorx
13 years ago
Reply to  Double Dee

Maybe 1340… Hard to get a good measurement.

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

Wow! This is just painful…

The statement of: “The markets can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent” is sooooooooo true. If my wife knew of the beating I was taking, she’d want to join in with the bulls to make it hurt even more! I’d walk in the door tonight and she’d announch “honey, we are having Bear meat for dinner!” LOL!

skaps112
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

My story as well. Trading account has taking a severe, severe beating since Feb 2010. I has a total bull through 2009 and then got bearish, and haven’t been able to shake my prefernce and bear outlook. It’s stupid, but I don’t know why I’m more scared to buy the dips, then shorting at highs

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

I turned bearish around the same time and been paying for it since.

What scares me about buying the dips is when this thing does turn and BTFD fails for the masses, we know it will go down 4x faster than it went up. Which means it will be difficult to get on board…

Gold_Gerb
13 years ago
Reply to  Anonymous

I suspect, the wise ones have 4 long for every 1 short.
if it falls 4X, the 1 short will cover more than the longs.
if the short expires, ah thats the price of profits.

IVEST-YS
IVEST-YS
13 years ago

BSGC.OB fake print flashed .888

Double Dee
Double Dee
13 years ago
Reply to  IVEST-YS

what is that?

INVEST-YS
INVEST-YS
13 years ago
Reply to  Double Dee

I did some research. This company is Bigstring which owns PeopleString. PeopleString (PLPE.OB) is trading at .777. Now how weired is that?????

Now, PLPE.OB is in the same space as FACEBOOK.

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