The Debt Ceiling Deadline Is October 17th, 2013 And Legatus Is October 8th Through The 17th...Coincidence?
(to watch on youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZwDHAovXEo)
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Hello everyone...
Red here... back from vacation!
Over the last month or so I've been quietly making money in the junior stock market and enjoying some much needed rest. I've been eliminating all the stress of wondering what will the government do next to manipulate the big market by simply not playing it. It's too easy to make money in the junior and penny stock market that I just didn't want to write other post on where I think they will take the S&P500 to next. Why worry about it when you can make money in the junior market without sleepless nights.
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Yes, yes, I'm going to give you an update on what I see in the big market in the coming weeks but I'm personally going to stick to trading these incredible junior picks I'm getting. Think of it like this... we bears (that's most who reads this blog) have been like small fish (maybe 1-2 feet long) swimming in the big bad ocean looking for food and trying not to get eaten from all the huge sharks around us (wall street market makers and manipulators), while I just escaped and found this nice quiet pond of water (the junior stock market) with nothing but small 1 inch minnows swimming in it just waiting to be eaten by a big fish like us!
If you align yourself with successful people and follow what they do then you'll become successful too...
I've do just that in the past month by making the connections with other successful traders in this junior stock market, which is something very few will ever be lucky enough to achieve. But you my dear reader are now one of the lucky ones as you will get access to all these HOT junior stock pick (some Nasdaq too) in my newsletter. So unless you have your own connections (like may Jim Cramer is your buddy) in the big market you'll going to still be a small fish swimming in the big bad ocean of sharks... unless you decide to join me in my quiet little pond?
This coming month and many months afterward my partner and our connections will be finding many more new winners BEFORE they explode higher and we will be giving them all to YOU in the newsletter so you can become a WINNER too! The coming bear market expected is something that is hugely positive for the junior stock market as traders flock to them in times of uncertainty... which is what I'm expecting in October and November of this year. Of course next year appears to be worst... which is GREAT for the junior stock market!
If you're not on my newsletter you'd better get on it asap as the coming turbulence in the S&P500 is going to make the junior stock market just that much better. Kinda like the farmer restocking the pond with fresh new minnows! Don't get eaten by the sharks, come take it easy in the pond. You can join here: http://reddragonleo.com/newsletter-sign-up
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The coming stock market crash...
So everyone is wondering if the stock market is still going to crash in October? And the answer is... "define Crash?" If by crash you mean a total collapse like in 1929 and what Lindsey Williams speaks of in his messages he gets from his elite sources, I'd so NO. If you mean will it have a 2,000 or 3,000 point drop in the DOW, I'd say YES.
Based on what I'm seeing in the charts we have either already completed or will complete in the coming early days in October the very large Primary wave 3 up from the 1074.77 SPX low in late 2011, which sets up the stage for a Primary wave 4 down that only has to remain above that 1074.77 low of Primary wave 2 down to be a valid Primary wave 4... which is one hell of a drop! I'm not expecting anything remotely close to tanking that far down but instead I'm simply looking for the gap up open from January 2nd, 2013 to be the target zone bottom.
That's somewhere between 1420 and 1460 on the SPX, which is also about a 3,000 point move down on the DOW from the current high. However, I'm not sure if the high is in yet or not? Inside this large Primary wave 3 up we have 5 Major waves and we appear to have completed the 5 Major wave up at the recent 1729.86 high... but it's possible that we still have a little more to go yet.
Naturally there are smaller waves inside the Major wave 5 up as well, which started at the 1627.47 low. Since it's a 5th wave it too will likely have a 5 wave pattern inside of it. I currently can see a 5 wave pattern up from 1627.47 to 1729.86 which all makes up a the 5th Major wave up inside Primary Wave 3 up, which "if so" will complete that large wave and allow for a Primary Wave 4 down to start.
The timing of a huge wave down starting soon and the coincidental timing of the debt ceiling deadline... and the Legatus meeting is something bears need to be very aware of. The charts only say we are about to see a Primary Wave 4 down start (which can easily be 3,000 DOW points) but add in the other events that happen to be timed out to occur with the topping of the Primary Wave 3 up and I'd say we have really great odds of a big move down coming this October.
As for a date...
It depends on whether or not we have topped at the recent 1729.86 high or not? While I can count 5 waves up in this final Major Wave 5 from the start of it at 1627.47 there's also the chance that those 5 smaller waves are just some type of A wave and the recent move down to Friday's close at 1691.75 SPX wave a B wave down... all still inside that final Major Wave 5 up. This leaves us a smaller C wave up yet to come inside Major Wave 5 up... and that should then complete Primary Wave 3 up from it's start at 1074.77 in 2011.
So, if A = C then we can guess at the final high by adding the points moved up in the A wave to the coming expected low of the B wave (which I think we'll see Monday October 30th, 2013). And since that A wave started at 1627 and ended at 1729 we have about 102 points, which added to say around 1680 for a estimated low on Monday (for the B wave down still inside Major Wave 5 up) that puts our upside target for the C wave up around 1782 (102 points added to 1680).
Personally I think that's too much to expect and I'd be more likely to believe that we'd have a shortened C wave that just barely goes above the 1729 high... maybe we get to 1750? I just don't see 1782 with the current debt ceiling news hanging over the market right now. I guess if the news media comes out and says "all is well, we feel positive that we'll reach an agreement before the October 17th deadline" then the market "could" relax and rally up that high.
But time is running out as October is coming upon us very fast now. It just doesn't look like they will have enough time left to produce another big wave up before that deadline date hits. A shortened wave C up to complete Major Wave 5 up and Primary Wave 3 up seems more likely. There's a lot of "negative divergence" patterns showing up on different time frames in the various indicators (like the MACD's, the Histogram Bars, etc...) which tells me we "could" already be topped?
If we are already topped...
Then we have started the first wave 1 down inside of Primary Wave 4 down. This move looks about done with a little more downside possible on Monday before we can expect a wave 2 up to start. If this is the case then by this coming Friday October the 4th I'd expect the wave 2 up to end and allow a wave 3 down to follow the next week.
This should be a tricky period as after a 5 wave pattern down happens it will have made up a likely Major Wave 1 down inside Primary Wave 4 down. This means we could bounce up hard in an ABC Major Wave 2 up that could possibly come from a positive announcement on reaching some type of agreement about raising the debt ceiling or extending it into a future date. So if we see that happen on the 17th I'd expect a rally until the 22nd with that date being a likely top for Major Wave 2 up because it's a "double eleven" date... and you know how they like to use the power of Numerology in the market.
Think about that for a moment now. If we are in a Primary Wave 4 down (that can go 3,000 DOW points down easily) and inside that large wave we complete a Major Wave 1 down (into the 17th for the positive news outcome regarding the debt ceiling) and further completing the Major Wave 2 up by the 22nd then we are looking at a Major Wave 3 down to start inside a Primary Wave 4 down. That my friends should look like a crash wave!
This is again just speculating but it's a strong possible count if we have already topped and they announce some positive news on October 17th about the debt ceiling issue. You remember November of 2012 when the market sold off in front of the first time we experienced this debt ceiling issue and once it was raised we quickly bottomed at 1343 and rally hard into the rest of the year and into the first half of 2013.
We should expect the same to happen again once they actually announce the raising of the debt ceiling for the 2nd time. But, it seems likely that they will play around for awhile and not make that agreement until after we have sold off into the 1420-1460 SPX zone to complete this expected Primary Wave 4 down.
The question is, how do to do it?
Delay, delay and delay is the answer I believe. You tell the news that we politicians are working hard to resolve this issue and get a bill passed to raise the debt ceiling limit as soon as possible... but we don't have a deal yet. However, we are going to agree to extend it until late in November (again)... which tells the market to sell off until that period when they agree to raise the debt ceiling just like they knew they were going to do anyway.
It's all just a dance timed out perfectly to allow the market to correct hard in a Primary Wave 4 down scaring the hell out of traders and getting every bear in the world on board short... which then allows them to squeeze the bears up into early 2014 for Primary Wave 5 that finally will end the entire bull rally from the 666 low in 2009... and further allow the real stock market crash to begin!
These are the possible moves that are likely coming in October and while I'm not sure with one or which way they will play out I do feel confident that a Primary Wave 4 down will start at some point this coming month. It could already have started or we could have on more higher high still coming? Regardless, we should still bounce some next week into Friday October 4th. It will either end up being called wave C inside the final 5th wave up to complete Primary Wave 3 up, or it will be wave 2 up inside Major Wave 1 down inside Primary Wave 4 down.
Therefore, the logical thing to do is to watch and see how high the market bounces into the end of next week before shorting. If they some how spin something the law makers say next week to sound like a deal on the debt ceiling will be made soon then the pressure will then let up on the market and we could see a decent move up. I'm still NOT expecting a move to 1782 but a slightly higher high over 1729 is possible. Of course it could fail to make it and fall just under 1729 and make either what we could call a double top area or some other Fibonacci retracement level that is 10-20 below 1729.
I would welcome a squeeze up to make a new high as that makes it easier to fall when it rolls over as the bears would have been stopped out. But I can't control what they decide to do with the market between now and October 17th, instead I'll just be listening closely to their buzz words (as Lindsey Williams likes to call them) for clues.
We all know that they WILL raise the debt ceiling limit, but when is the question? There will be mixed signals from law makers as the play the dance to move the market in the direction they want. But come October 17th I'm NOT expecting them to say "we've decided to raise the limit", but instead I am expecting them to state something positive to squeeze out the bears with a rally into the 22nd (this assume we make a 5 wave move down into the 17th to create Major Wave 1 down).
However, if they have not went down into the 17th in a Major Wave 1 but complete that wave the week or so prior, thereby rallying up with Major Wave 2 (inside it should be an ABC pattern of waves) and the topping out before the deadline date, they should say something negative like "we've not reached any agreement yet and will be setting up another deadline in late November".
Naturally you can expect the markets' reaction from a statement like that to be very negative, so we'd see that Major Wave 3 down inside Primary Wave 4 down start immediately! Again, that would be your crash wave! This all assumes the plan is to continue down some more to make the Major Wave 1 and then back up into the 17th for the Major Wave 2 completion. This plan suggests the high for Primary Wave 3 up from 1074 is already in at 1729 and we have already started the first Major Wave 1 down inside Primary Wave 4 down.
The other scenario is that we still haven't topped for Primary Wave 3 up and we are head to possibly 1750 SPX or so into the end of next week or even into early the following week. Then as the days count down toward the October 17th deadline the market starts Major Wave 1 down inside Primary Wave 4 down as it waits for the announcement concerning the debt ceiling.
On that date the law makers decide to extend the limit for another month pushing the deadline into late November. The market rallies from the relief of the news to make the Major Wave 2 up inside Primary Wave 4 down. Then on October 22nd the market exhausts its' rally and realizes that the debt ceiling issue still hasn't be solved yet... and panic sets back in causing Major Wave 3 down inside Primary Wave 4 down to start.
Bata-a-bang Bata-a-Boom!
There you go...
Likely top for Major Wave 2 up inside Primary Wave 4 down should happen on either October 17th or the 22nd. Then Major Wave 3 down starts inside Primary Wave 4... and that my friends the the wave down you want to ride! It's the surfers dream wave that happens once or twice in a lifetime (found during hurricanes and tsunamis... which coincidentally is the same thing it will feel like in the stock market I believe).
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Will the next market crash happen before or in mid-October?
... update from Ali
Hi folks!
I know it has been a quite while since I last posted on the blog, talking about the market plunge due in early August and such. Yes, actually my bad! You see I project most of the turning points but I really did a bad job projecting the crash. I knew for sure, the market would put in a top early August and it really did but that would not lead to a collapse or anything. You see, with a lot of people already being aware of August 2013 being a critical month, new energy was added to the market, changing the harmonics. On top of that, the Fed was also aware of the market being so close to the plunge so they did their best to hold it up through a lot of money printing. Then at that time the market was also traded by “Big Dogs” to attract as many buyers as they could.
The current situation is fooling everyone one now. You might think, no war with Syria, no war with Iran, positive GDP numbers and the stock market will go to the Moon but here are the real issues, the debt ceiling drama and budegt deficit crisis. You see, the drastic measures to avoid hitting the debt ceiling will probably be exhausted in mid-October and also the budget deficit will likely soon go all over the press. In addition to the current economic issues, we also have a monsterous “New Moon “ coming on October 4th. Generally, October is going to be a difficult month for everyone and I suppose we are in for a rough couple of months.
Now I would like to turn your attention to the S&P500 weekly chart.
As you see, I have plotted the 20-day moving average to indicate the moving support and resistance levesl. Not that I apply such method in my market analysis but I am simply doing this to indicate a very important support level at 1656 area on the weekly chart. You see, the prices will likely soon hit it, then bounce a little bit. I assume it will be a weak attemp to make a higher high. Whether the market is able to make a higher high or not, the next attemp will be so weak. DO not let it fool you! All you would want to do is to wait for a “set-up bar” to form, then short the market without hesitation.
May you profit handsomely,
Ali
Email: afiroozi (at) rocketmail (dot) com
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Red
P.S. Another reason to expect a bounce is the goverment shutdown that happens (or doesn't happen... which is what I think will happen) that is set for September the 30th at midnight. That's Monday of course and there is supposed to be a vote that occurs on it at 8pm EST tonight (Saturday the 28th) while I'm writing this post. So kind of agreement should cause the market to rally. Maybe it is announced later tonight or possibly Monday after the close? Don't know which but once it's announced (and again, assuming it's positive) we should rally from the government remaining open for some future extended time period.
References:
http://www.legatusmagazine.org/conferences/
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/25/us-usa-fiscal-debt-idUSBRE98O0LU20130925
http://www.news10.net/rss/article/258858/2/The-government-shutdown-explained
ES Trend update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/09/es-trend-update.html
The low this morning on the ES Futures is 1666.75… LOL! A sign of what’s to come I guess!
So far all is going as expected. All we need for them to do now is to come up with some type of agreement before midnight tonight so the government isn’t shutdown. Then we should see some type of rally start from the good news. Of course if it shutdown then all bets are off on a rally.
Bank of America Chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/09/bank-of-america-chart-update_30.html
The end of the reflective age. Summer’s End.
It’s always slow during the summer month Geccko… but you and I know something wicked is coming this month and next.
Gold breakdown and support levels: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/gold-breakdown-and-support-levels.html
Looks like traders didn’t care about the government shutdown. It should take most all week to get the charts overbought again. I’m still not sure if we have a higher high or a low higher but we are in bull mode for awhile now.
Rally is starting…Crash imminent
The 4th is my thoughts on the high…
It looks like the spx high is in…But I’d say the nasdaq/techs may give you a better R/R. Probably better off going with IWM this time around
Agreed, the other indexes seem to have been holding up better and should produce a bigger profit when they crash. IWM looks to be the better play then the SPY this go around.
Apple chart update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/apple-chart-analysis.html
Tomorrow is a 9 day… Good enough for me… Maybe you should inch in then red… 11 days are coin flips… can be a high, or an ugly day.. and the spx high was on the 18th…just my 2 cents. I’ll be sitting heavy on iwms as of tomorrow
Let’s see what Bernanke says at 3:30pm tomorrow first. It feels like a lot of people are short right now and they need to squeeze them out before they crash I think. But inching into shorts this week seems wise as well.
Yeah… totally agree there Peter.
yeah, I see your point bout the squeeze, and if it wasn’t for that 33 spx high I would think so too. But it’s there. And that’s their most powerful number in my opinion, That squeeze when he last spoke was pretty nasty. 2 in 2 weeks just seems off
I think the market will be choppy most of tomorrow until Bernanke speaks. Whatever he says will determine the direction I believe. It’s possible that we tank afterwards but I get the feeling we have started some type of Minor Wave 2 up with the move down from the 1729 high to the 1674 low being the Minor Wave 1 down.
Inside this Minor Wave 2 up we should have an ABC pattern with the high today or tomorrow making the A wave up part of it. Then a B wave down should happen (probably a quick move based on fear of what Bernanke says) and then a C wave up to complete the Minor Wave 2 up (probably rejoicing on what Bernanke says).
Then we start Minor Wave 3 down, which should be at least 1.618% longer then Minor Wave 1 was. Since it was 55 points we should drop 89 points minimum I think… should be more since we are also in a much larger Primary Wave 4 down as well.
Obama will come to asean next week
so i thik market will push up higher…then crush
The turkey is leaving huh… well that’s a sign that all is well I believe. I’m not sure but I’ve noticed that the market doesn’t make big moves down when he’s out of the office. It either chops around or rallies. When does he come back and what day does he leave on?
meet some leader in singaopre ,malaysia and go back his hometown Indonesia..
can i ask Leo, how you think Obama??he is bad guy member in gangster too?or he just a good guy? he also support the legatus?thanks
He’s a puppet bad guy just like all the other wolves… but he’s trying to do his own thing I believe and ignore the other more powerful wolves that put him into office. Wolves are like that… they fight for more power among themselves but always unite when it comes time to sheer the sheep (that’s us of course).
thanks , to do his own thing ?is this thing is good or bad?or he want try to change the world finance system?
will he support to make the market crush with the powerful wolves?
He can’t stop what the more powerful wolves do with the market as they control it. He’s agenda is his own and I’m sure it’s not good for the sheep. He probably wants to rule the world just like the more powerful wolves already do. Trust me, he’s not looking out for our best interests.
that mean ours human being will control by them powerful wolves until we died?
no any change?after 10 years 20 years or 100 years?
or just can change the world finance system after doomsday?
hnm…………….. i am tired to see them control whole the world money ,property, and share market……………we all are tired..coz money game in life….no money nothing can do………..
When money is no longer needed for basic survival we sheep can then be free, but that’s not something I’m expecting to see in my lifetime. Eliminate the “need” for money and they have no way to control us. Just like on Star Trek you’ll notice that money isn’t used.
All basic needs are given to the people in that dream world. We could already be there with the secret technology they already have, but don’t look for them to allow it to get out to the public anytime soon.
Free energy will destroy the monetary system as we know it so even if some of them have a enough guilty inside them for all the bad they’ve done to us they still can’t release it all at once.
It has to be slowly integrated into the system a little at a time. They will have to slowly increase the mileage of the automotive a little at a time until the industry can adapt. Putting out cars that run on water can’t be allowed at the present time. One day they will but the “when” part is unknown?
All you can do for now is to make as much money as possible to prepare for the coming hard times. The next 3 years are going to be really tough on the average person. Help yourself first so you can help others later, because most won’t be aware of what’s coming.
thanks you Leo.
All you can do for now is to make as much money as possible to prepare
for the coming hard times. The next 3 years are going to be really
tough on the average person. Help yourself first so you can help others
later, because most won’t be aware of what’s coming.
your word awaken me…
i feel like want to cry….but how can i make money in share market
even i am dealer in share market, sometimes i miss the chance, i am loss
can i follow you to buy share…thanks you give me tips and guide me to make money
i will make more money and use this money to help people like create a natural farm for natural food..
thanks.
Hmmm Pittsburgh (baseball) in the playoffs for the first time since 1992, 21(777-37) years ago and playing the Reds in Pittsburgh right now…up 6-2 (12..66). Tomorrow, 10-2 will be 7829 days from the Bradley date from the same year. It’s 70 degrees in Pittsburgh right now so I guess Summer hasn’t ended there.
And if Pittsburgh wins they will be facing their nemesis from 1992, Atlanta, who knocked them out of the playoffs in a famous game. Tonight’s game brings the spotlight to PNC park which was also featured prominently in the important opening sequence from last year’s Tom Cruise flick, Jack Reacher, one of the more prominently occulted movies of recent years. I remember a lot of 66s and a 25 and 56 from that opening sequence. The “86” stadium explosion scene from Batman Dark Knight Rises was also filmed in Pittsburg at the Steelers Stadium as well as many of the movie’s exterior scenes.
I’ve been looking at STLouis lately (they did feature a STL-49ers matchup last week on Thurs. nite…a battle of QBs 8-7) and the temperature has been reading 84 degrees during the day so I guess Summer hasn’t ended there as well. STL will be the home of the Bernanke speech tomorrow sponsored by the STL fed. I guess since the speech will occur despite the Federal govt shutdown, they’re really admitting that they aren’t part of the govt. The speech will occur 99years9months9days from the creation of the Federal Reserve or 4 9s (77).
Stanley Kubrick in his Shining did have a fascination with 12s and 21s. Tomorrow is also 12years 21days from you know when or 4404 days later. There is also an ECB meeting and decision overnite which interestingly no one has mentioned and going completely under the radar. The Fed speech as well but it at least was mentioned here. (although nothing is really expected…or is it??)
Quote: The Fed speech as well but it at least was mentioned here. (although nothing is really expected…or is it?)
Probably not Geccko but traders are so used too living and breathing from what Bernanke says that it’s still likely they will do a whole lot of nothing in trading prior to his speech. They are all like crackheads and there dealer is in town so they will run to him to see if he’s got more crack for them.
Interesting timing of his speech though… 3:30pm, just a half hour before the close of the market. Why is he doing that? Usually they either do it at 2:15pm or some time after the close (to trap bulls or bears of course).
The last Fed decision day did occur at a conjunction of Rahu,Saturn, and Quetzi although some astrologers disputed that and contended that Rahu Saturn had a conjunction on 9-25 but the taper decision did have a explosive finality to it.
Super Moon this coming weekend after October 4th Geccko…
I know. Why does Ali call it a monstrous new moon. Its 27 as well. It’s a historically prominent new moon.
Pittsburgh won 6-2 and advances to face STL. Atlanta plays LA (featuring rookie wunderkind #66). Reminds me of the USC game last week that saw them lose 62-41 (with the SC kicker missing an extra point to get the 41 ie 1111) followed up by the occultic hit at LAX airport at 3am in the morning when the Rhodes Scholar USC AD axed the football coach, an example of what WB used to call the wolves eating their own throughout the centuries. When USC had lost 7 of their last 11 football games. No one could wonder why the AD brought the coach back this year and supported him so vociferously despite their continued ugly play and then he finally ruthlessly turned on him.(when the numerology was right?) He fired the basketball coach last year after a 7-11 start. He was blathering about the 125 year tradition at the school. the 7 losses in the last 11 games…last year’s 7-6 record and then there was the 7-2-9 QB/ All American Wide Receiver tandem/trio from last year.
ES Update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/es-chart-update_2.html
is it crazy?????really???who is this guy?
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Parker sees S&P 500 at 1,840 in 12 months
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/09/04/morgan-stanleys-adam-parker-sees-sp-500-at-1840-in-12-months/
Funny how well timed that forecast of 1840 SPX in 12 months is… because they always like to tell us sheep that we are going up to some higher level just before we tank. So yeah, we’ll probably hit 1800+ next year but first we are going to tank to 1420-1460 area.
The wolves are trying to get the sheep into going long up at these levels while they are selling. Just the same old trick they always do so they can exit the market by selling us their garbage. When we hit the 1400 area they will be putting out bad news all over the mainstream media so we sheep will sell at a lost as they buy it all back from us.
haha…….good cheat…..
but how come spx drop today ,is it bear coming??
will drop until friday???
really unstable this week , up down up down
He’s what I’m thinking…. http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/spx-10-02-2013.jpg
I’m expecting Bernanke to save the day here at 3:30 and/or Obama right after the market closes. One of them will say something to allow the market to rally I believe.
you are right…..s&p 500 up ….
is it real???he want change the world finance???or what is plan??want the market crush?
Obama: Fed chair will prevent asset bubbles, focus on jobs
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/02/us-usa-obama-fed-idUSBRE99116W20131002
It’s all just a “dog and pony show”… nothing will be done (to benefit the sheep) as the elite still pull Obummers chain. He’s their puppet just like Bernanke is, and they say what they are told to say. If either of them have their mouth open and lips moving you can rest assured that they are lying. Believe nothing you see on mainstream media and half what you hear on conspiracy sites.
Tesla Motors Chart Analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/tesla-motors-support-levels.html
Ei Red,
What do you think about this link:
http://www.rememberthe13th.com/
Weird!
Maybe they are going to finally admit that aliens do exist? LOL!
Maybe! But only if was oficial from Nasa…. There is no evidence this is from nasa, probably be a hoax… Have to wait the countdown 😉
Yeah, it’s probably nothing… just a sales gimmick!
what is this??is this from official NASA website??
Descending Triangle ES: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/es-descending-triangle.html
Considering how far we’ve sold off now it appears that they have decided to rally into the 17th instead of going down into it, as today or tomorrow will very likely end this move down. Today appears to be a “flush out” move where they suck in the last bear and stop out the early bulls that went long.
At this point I’m not looking for just some lower high coming up from the rally that should start tomorrow or Monday but I expect them to make a new high, probably hitting that rising trendline I posted previously. That means we could see 1740-1750 over the next couple of weeks. With all the new bears getting short today and all the late bears that will be shorting the coming rally they should have plenty of “squeeze power” to take out the current high of 1729 by the 17th.
Hi Leo, how the debt ceiling will effect market?
How you think is the result?
S&P will hit new high again this debt ceiling result?thanks
I think we are going to rally some next week and continue until we get closer to the debt ceiling deadline on the 17th. Hopefully they will make a new high in the 1740-1750 area to take out all the bears… then they can collapse when they don’t raise the limit.
Hi Red,
Any thoughts on the current Junior stock play?
Sitting in a big pool of red…
Should be soon… got 2 coming but must confirm first.
Its down big time. Are you saying the “roar up” is coming soon? Or is this play dead? Volume is up & heavy the past 3 days though.
Did you get my email?
Got it & sent a reply. Sorry, we were not on the same page. Did not want to mention any ticker names.
Are you really buying this fraud!!! They buy way ahead of the crowd and then sell you to unload and your stuck in a pile of mud. Very classic only a fool will fall for.
Not sure what you are referring to Amy but my partner and I try our best to find these picks before promoters like Jim Cramer go out and hype them. We then pass them on to all the people on the newsletter as possible candidates for big move.
We haven’t been 100% correct but lately we have been much more accurate at sniffing out these stocks before someone else promotes them. I give that information out to the newsletter readers for free in the hopes that they can profit from them.
While many stocks have the “potential” to move up 400%-500% I’ve noticed lately that they have been met with heavy selling when they only hit a 100% gain… but that’s still a great move.
I can’t tell anyone what to buy or when to sell but I exit my personal positions with only 50% to 100% gains, and many times I pay more for the position then my subscribers as the stock many times falls in price lower then my entry point just before someone else promotes it.
This junior stock market is no different then the big market where you have talking heads like Jim Cramer telling you to buy at the top (so he can sell) and to sell at the bottom (so he can buy).
My partner and I have developed a way to foresee these moves before they happen and therefore buy some shares in advance. However, we can’t pinpoint the exact day it’s going to move up from some future promotion so we must wait it out.
Our last pick took 2 weeks to move up from when I alerted members about it and it fell in price lower then where I bought it at. I personally only made about 30% on the move up and others could have made more because they could have bought lower.
I can’t guarantee every stock is going to move up huge… some will, some won’t, but we are getting better by the day at picking the ones with the highest chances of being promoted in advance of that promotion starting.
So while many will have huge upside potential we should all use smart money management and take profit when we have it. When you see huge volume in some stock but it doesn’t move up as much as you wanted…. sell out and take what profit it gives you.
The fact that it’s not moving up as much as we thought it could is because there are too many sellers in it that are holding the price down and not allowing it to soar as much as it should.
Nothing is certain in this market as while my partner and I have found a way to see what’s going to happen before it does it’s not something that we can pinpoint to some exact gain amount or date that it starts.
Just like the big market (the S&P500) there are games being played that are designed to trick the average trader the same goes on in the junior stock market. I give out free information to simply alert people that there is a good chance of some promotion on that stock starting soon but even I get fooled sometimes and get stuck holding the bag.
I go out of my way to help others and I’m not perfect. You must do your own research before making a decision to buy or sell any stock. I’m not the golden goose that laid the golden egg. If I were I’d be happy to give an egg, but unfortunately I just like you… trying to survive.
I’m with you on this. I admit I fell for RDL stuff for awhile but realize now he is just a misinformation campaign like everything else. How funny is it that he had some winner picks while on vacation that he just so happened to not share with us. I could actually excuse that but he has gone on now to completely ignore his biggest failure to date which is EARH. He didn’t even acknowledge it in his last letter which is exactly how the scammers like awesome penny stocks operate, only talk about the winners and completely disregard anything that is embarrassing, which as of now he has not ever said to get out of EARH, only that it is in limbo waiting for funding which is likely to never happen. But regardless that leaves it as a hold in his “portfolio” in anyone’s way of thinking and he no longer acknowledges it.
US Dollar near Weekly support Line: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/us-dollar-near-weekly-support-line.html
Tesla Trend Update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/tesla-trend-update.html
Wall Street Brushes Off Debt-Ceiling, Republicans Beg To Differ, But Default Would be “Catastrophic,” And Nothing Is Priced In…
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2013/10/3/wall-street-brushes-off-debt-ceiling-republicans-beg-to-diff.html
The sheep are always mislead and this time is no difference. “If” we hold this ground and/or rally up into the 17th… and we continue to see “positive” statements surrounding the debt ceiling issue, then you can practically guarantee that they will surprise everyone and do the opposite!
Again, I’m still not sure whether we are going down first into the 17th for a wave 1 down, which then suggests a wave 2 up into the 22nd followed by a nasty wave 3 down. Or we are bottoming now for a smaller wave 1 down and will chop around for the wave 2 up into the 17th… which then implies the nasty wave 3 down will start on that date right after they state something negative like “we aren’t going to raise the debt ceiling and we don’t know when or if this issue will be resolved”.
Regardless, the 17th and the 22nd are still my key dates for a turn in the market. Until the 17th I take no position in the market either way. (I’m just playing a few junior picks right now squeezing out 30% to 100% gains, which is basically whatever the stock will give me).
that mean i still can hold my share until 22?
or just sell off all my share until 22 ?
Don’t know yet? If we drift lower into the 17th then that could be the bottom and then we rally into the 22nd for the wave 2 up… or we chop around and climb a little higher to possibly hit 1700 or more into the 17th in anticipation that the debt ceiling will be raised. If that happens then I think they won’t raise it and we’ll see our wave 3 down start on the 17th instead of the 22nd.
that mean big crush will coming soon?
debt ceiling problem can resolve as well?or game over?
here’s my thoughts.. the 22nd is a double eleven day…and the 18th, that friday, is a 9 day.. so stall, fakeout on Frday to topout, then have a weekend surprise
ES Support and Resistance Levels: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/es-support-and-resistance-levels_7.html
Gold chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/gold-chart-analysis.html
So far the market isn’t give us a clear pattern that I can see. It’s stuck in a falling channel. It could continue down all the way into the 17th and frustrate everyone I guess? However, I do see a “Head and Shoulders” pattern forming, and we’re holding support on the 200dma, so possibly we’ll start some rally here soon?
The only problem is the lack of positive news to get the rally started. As long as this debt ceiling issue is hanging over the market unresolved it’s going to be tough for any pattern to play out, so I wouldn’t get too excited just because you see the H&S pattern as everyone else does too.
SPY Analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/spy-analysis-after-closing-bell.html
SPX Update… http://screencast.com/t/MCqw1jbzCoBs
ES Violates support levels: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/es-violates-support-levels.html
Dow Jones Analysis After Close: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/dow-jones-near-200-day-sma.html
QQQ Testing support zone: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/qqq-testing-support-levels.html
Looking at the various time frames on multiple charts it’s looking like we could be bottoming today for the short term. I’ll do another video when I get the chance but I’m leaning toward a choppy rally to start here soon.
Dow Jones Charts Update: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/dow-jones-analysis-after-closing-bell.html
Well we’ve hit the 1656 area Ali mentioned……
Should be a short lived rally tomorrow and then I think we drop one more time to around 1610 area. After that we should see a more powerful rally that will last possibly 1-2 weeks, and it should co-inside with something positive being said on the debt ceiling.
TESLA Chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/tesla-testing-support-levels.html
ES resistance levels: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/es-resistance-levels.html
Everyone check your email if you are on the newsletter list…
i cant received it
got link ?
I emailed you…
Hey Red, I did not get it
I sent it to your email around 2:30 pm today (est) so look for it in your spam folder if you didn’t get it.
Still no receive
Can email
Kenxing1984@hotmail.com
Thanks Leo
I resent it again… check your spam folder incase it landed in it? It should be coming from red (at) reddragonleo (dot) com
thanks Leo
received ur email
Subject: Re: New comment posted on The Stage Is Being Set For A Possible 3000 Point Drop In The Dow…
The market is almost at a falling trendline of resistance, which should stop it on the first hit. The question will be… does the move down go back to fill the gap and head toward a lower low, or do they have the bears trapped here and plan on just dipping briefly only to gap up again tomorrow over the resistance level?
With the positive statements out about the debt ceiling we could be in rally mode for the next 2 weeks? We are pretty oversold on most charts and due a relief rally. Unless there some unknown negative news on the horizon that they plan to release I’m leaning toward the bulls here as they certainly have the bears trapped now.
If they just pull back to around gap window later today or tomorrow (instead of gap fill) then that shows the bulls strength and ways heavy in their favor. We all knew that there would be some type of rally from something positive coming out about the debt ceiling… we just didn’t know when?
So unless they surprise again with something negative I think we are going to rally for 1-2 weeks to make the Major Wave 2 up with yesterday’s low being the Major Wave 1 down. This leaves Major Wave 3 down inside Primary Wave 4 down to start once this rally ends. Since they have offered a “temporary” increase in the debt ceiling limit the 17th has no important value anymore.
Meaning we have to look for some Fibonacci level of retracement, along with a trendline of resistance for our topping date. The 61.8% level is around 1700 SPX and the 78.6% is at 1715 SPX… so I’d think one of them should be our target for the upside high.
Time wise we have to expect the same date I’ve listed in this post as one of 2 possible days for a top. So if we hit that 1715 level on that date I’d say that’s our best chance of a great short. However, don’t be surprised if they don’t scream this up HUGE and make a new high to take out all the bears stops before they tank it.
I’m not expecting that of course but stranger things have happened. It’s probably just going to be based on how many bears are left in the market to squeeze when we get up to the first target of 1715 as I’m sure there will be many that see the Head and Shoulders pattern and try to short that right shoulder top.
It could be an accurate pattern this time or a bear trap? The date it happens on and the level it’s at when on that date will give us our best clues. Until then I think it’s long and strong as the puppets in Congress saved the day for us sheep one more time.
does the broken trendline mean a trap door is opened to the downside?
(after the probable failed retest from beneath, of course)
Here’s what I see happening… http://screencast.com/t/eFDFm7uC
WOW!
Clearing out the shorts Seawind…
Indeed!!!
A gap in the 1700 area as well……I believe!
Well Obama just rejected the Republican short term debt ceiling raise plan……we’re going down tomorrow.
Hang in there… the rally isn’t done yet but “yes” there should be some type of selling happening, but it’s just a pullback I think before another move higher. What we must have had today was some type of powerful wave 3 up, so a wave 4 down will be next and then a final wave 5 up after that.
Is this what our markets have become?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2013/10/20131010_ES3_0.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-10/stocks-collapse-after-obama-rejects-republican-proposal
http://economiccollapse2015.blogspot.com/
there are some pretty direct confirmations on this one
Dow Jones analysis after Closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/dow-jones-analysis-after-closing-bell_11.html
Gold chart analysis: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.in/2013/10/gold-head-and-shoulders-pattern.html
I think we’ll go back down next week as the fear continues about the debt ceiling. This whole move up looks pretty impulsive too me, and that indicates it won’t last. While past history of candle patterns say that we should have a slightly higher high on Monday (this assumes a close up here in this area today) I get the feeling they won’t.
If no real progress is made over the weekend we could see this come tumbling back down Monday morning with no bears short and all the bulls long. Surprises and misdirection is the name of the game here and it’s probably wise to exit all longs today and take a small short over the weekend in case TSHF…
New FP… http://screencast.com/t/poDzUyzkPmmN
What does this mean? FP
FP stands for “fake print”… meaning the market never really traded at that level. Some people call them “computer glitches” but I think they are sometimes signals to the insiders as to where they plan to take the market to at some future point in time.
Unfortunately I can’t read the code to know the “when” part but they are still something one should watch and be aware of. Since the futures are currently down that FP could be the low for Monday or even the opening price? Don’t know which but just look for the FP to be hit at some point in the near future.
“NO DEAL”we should have went short on Friday … DARN!
I am thinking about 1000 points drop!
SnP should test 1550 line.
The target remains the 200 dma, which I think will be around 1610 SPX by next Thursday the 17th as it’s around 1600 now and rising. So if they fail to reach a deal here over this weekend then I’d expect the market to start going back down until they do… which I suspect will be done at the last minute on the 17th just when the market bottoms at the 200 dma. Once the deal is reach the market should rip high in a big rally.