CORRECTION: Yesterday's post for December 3rd was titled improperly for December 1st, 2018.

This morning we see the futures down a little as try to reset the overbought 60 minute chart that was created yesterday with the massive gap up Sunday night. Most likely we'll see the gap filled at some point today and then a float back up with the expected light volume. There was a "possible" FP on the SPY yesterday before the open around 9:21 am, which might be the target high this coming Thursday.

It was for 281.00 and that Sunday night gap up high was 281.38, so the FP is a lower high and plays into my guessing that we'll hit it Thursday by the close and setup Friday for a nice drop. By then the daily chart will be quite overbought and ready to drop for a few days. This coming pullback will be the "tell all" for the bears as if they plan on crashing it that move down will be the start of it.

But they've fumbled the ball many times in the past as they had the highest odds of success back in November. Now that we are in December the odds are greatly reduced. I'm not saying it's not possible but odds are certainly lower now then before. Everyone knows that crashes don't happen in December, and that's been the pattern for decades and decades with the stock market.

So unless something political comes out to shake up the month I'd expect this "possible" crash to get pushed out into the new year. Let's face it, the release of good news and bad news is fully controlled so it can certainly be buried until January.... if they choose to do so? There's a lot going on behind the scenes with Trump and his plans to arrest the criminal cabal with the Clinton's, Bushes, and Obama's at the forefront that we'll never hear about.

And as long as these things aren't brought to the light for us sheep to worry about the market can be saved from that disaster. There's been news out of banks being raided and CEO's stepping down in masses of various high profile companies, but so far that's not be pumped by the main stream media as dangerous for the market.

But if that stuff is ever put out there in focus this market will panic. It seems to be under control for now, and I'd guess that was Trump and his team that is keeping it under wraps. The big worry is the ripple effect of the derivatives that the elite created back in the 1980's to setup a full collapse at some point in the future when they were ready.

It will devastate the market and put us into another great depression if it triggers. But can Trump stop them from collapsing it? Clearly he's in a battle against these satanists and seems to winning right now. However, I'm puzzled as to why he's allowing the Fed to raise interest rates and do QT (quantitative tightening) at the same time when the stock market is so overbought.

It's a recipe for disaster... especially if what I talked about in yesterdays post happens in the public eye. Mass arrests of these people can cause them to panic and sell, sell, sell... which might not normally affect the market but many of these criminals are heads of large tech companies (like Apple, Google and Facebook) and others at large banks. It's a shit storm waiting to explode!

Anyway, for now I'm just looking short term and that suggests a light pullback today and a drift up higher in the 281.00 FP by the close on Thursday where I think we'll peak out on this first wave up from the 11/23 low. From there I'd expect a drop into the 2700-2720 zone next week and then a final push up into the end of the year toward 286 SPY zone.

This all assumes any crash it put on hold until after the holidays, and it's looking like that's the plan as if it wasn't the plan then Trump would not have agreed to a 90 hold on Tariffs this past weekend. That agreement caused the 40-50 point rally in the futures and saved the market from a technical breakdown that was expected to happen this week.

But this isn't "uncommon" as we've seen the market get a last minute save time after time in other past similar situations. It's not viewed as healthy in their opinion to let a market naturally correct and instead they keep pumping the bull full of steroids, then cocaine, and crack until he finally crashes... which is of course not health for the people but seems to always benefit the insiders that caused as they come in and buy up everything at extremely oversold levels from the poor sheep in panic mode.

It's happened in the past many times and will happen again. Trump seems to be trying to stop it and maybe he will... don't know? If so then I'd just expect a mild recession next year instead of another great depression like the elite planned. The battle between good and evil rages on it seems...

Yesterday worked out perfectly to match up with 10/02/1987. Today needs a similar close but we need to be green instead of red. That should setup the next big move down as early as Monday. Now, there is another possibility and that's one where the pattern delays by one day... meaning we have a third "spinning top" (doji) type close on Monday (mainly due to the G20 event) and then we start back down hard on Tuesday. So let's keep that in mind as a possibility for those wanting to short at the close today. Patterns rarely match exactly... day for day, so a one day delay could happen.

Now let's break this down into a wave count as well. It's a possible wave count as again I'm not an Elliottwave guru. I'm going to use labels that make sense to me so don't hold that against me as again I'm not an expert on this. The September 21st, 2018 top to the October 29th low is what I'm calling a "Super Large A Wave" down. It broke-down into 5 "Large Waves" which you can figure out for yourself as it's not that important right now. Of course some of those waves broke-down into "Medium Waves" and then "Small Waves", etc... you get the picture.

Let's just start at the bottom of this "Super Large A Wave" down and go from there. The "Super Large B Wave" appears to have topped at on 11/07 at 2815 SPX. Then the "Super Large C Wave" down started. It bottomed at 2631.09 on 11/23, which I'm calling the "Large Wave 1" down inside the "Super Large C Wave" down. From there we started a "Large Wave 2" up, and it may or may not be completed yet? I think it topped with the intraday high of 2753.75 on 11/29 (yesterday).

Here's how I think it broke-down. We had a "Medium Wave A" up (inside "Large Wave 2" up) from that 2631.09 low (11/23) to a 2674.35 high (11/24), then a "Medium Wave B" down into the next morning hitting a low of 2655.89 on 11/27. Yeah, it's a small pullback but it's all I can figure out. The "Medium Wave A" up broke-down into 5 smaller waves from what I can tell on the 10 minute chart. Anyway, the "Medium Wave C" up started from that low and also broke-down into 5 smaller waves... which I think ended with the 2753.75 high yesterday.

So, from 2661.94 on 11/27 to the intraday 2679.05 high you have a "Small Wave 1" up, then "Small Wave 2" down into 2664.41 in the afternoon that day. From there we started the "Small Wave 3" up (inside "Medium Wave C" up, inside "Large Wave 2" up) that seemed to also breakdown again into smaller waves. That first wave up ended at the open on 11/28 at 2697.69, then "Tiny Wave 2" down intraday to 2684.34, where we then started "Tiny Wave 3" up (inside "Small Wave 3" up, inside "Medium Wave C" up, inside "Large Wave 2" up). That was of course the big squeeze wave on the bears that hurt like hell for those caught short.

The "Tiny Wave 3" up seems to have topped at 2744.00 going into the close that day (11/28) and then the "Tiny Wave 4" down hit an intraday low of 2722.94 on 11/29. Then the "Tiny Wave 5" up hit a high of 2753.75 later that afternoon. That should end "Tiny Wave 5" up (inside "Small Wave 3" up, inside "Medium Wave C" up, inside "Large Wave 2" up). It leaves "Small Wave 4" down for today, then "Small Wave 5" up for Monday to complete "Medium Wave C" up inside "Large Wave 2" up... inside "Super Large Wave C" down.

So (if this wave count is correct?) this sets up Tuesday to start "Large Wave 3" down of "Super Large Wave C" down. Naturally it should subdivide into 5 smaller waves (the "Medium", "Small" and "Tiny" ones) but when you get them all aligned together in some wave 3's of C's you have the makings of a crash wave. So while everyone still see's this December as being bullish the wave counts do not agree. Yeah, I guess they could do a whole lot of chop to delay this count until January but I really don't see that as possible.

This multi-combination of wave 3's and wave C's down is likely to happen in the month of December... so bulls beware. You've been saved in the past by the Fed's and their low internet rates and constant buying of the market via QE, but now we have rising interest rates and the Fed withdrawing money via QT. I'm sorry but that doesn't look too me like the typical safety net the bulls are used too. Call me crazy but I still see a crash wave coming this December.

Ok, the bulls put a whipping on the bears yesterday with a huge squeeze up. While I was expecting some light volume float higher I didn't expect it to rally so much. But all is fine as it's playing into the perfect bearish setup for this coming Friday. Basically today would need to pullback some (can also go higher some first) and then close about flat... aka, the "spinning top" candle pattern. Then do the same on Friday and we have a chart pattern similar to 1987 where yesterday was like 10/01/1987, today like 10/02/1987 and Friday like 10/05/1987.

The bears need to hold the bulls back here and not give up much more ground. The prior highs of 2748 on 11/14/2018 and 11/19/2018 should be taken out by the bulls but that should only be for stop runs on the bears. A close back below that zone today and Friday is needed in my opinion to keep the similar pattern as in 1987. Failure to do that and the bulls could explode much higher and even catch that holiday season "year end" rally... which might take them to new all time highs. I give this low odds right now as the bulls need to prove themselves first, and so far all I see is a big short squeeze today. The volume on the SPY was certainly up higher but it looked more like bears capitulating then bulls buying. So I'll still look for a top this coming Friday on this bounce and go from there.

Afterhours and premarket there was some nice swings down and up and down again as market digests the tariff news put out after the bell yesterday. As least that's what the media will blame it on. There's also a new FP on the SPY of 268.45 around 2:30 am, which might be the coming high for this rally up from yesterday? It looks like we had an A wave of some small degree up yesterday and since it's looking like we are going to gap down this morning I'd say that wave completed at the close.

Today, or at least early in the day, we should have the B wave down. That leaves the C wave up into the close on Wednesday, which might be when that FP is hit? I don't have any targets on this B wave down but I don't think it will be too deep or too long in the making. My guess is that it's finished with by midday at the latest and we start the C wave back up from there. The dip buyers should be out right at the open but I don't think we'll start the C right from there.

We should drift lower for a few hours after the open I believe to form this B wave down. It will make a nice "inverted head and shoulders" pattern on the 60 minute charts too. Anyway, that's all I see for today. I still think we are going down again soon as I don't see this bottom as strong enough to hold for some year end rally. Good luck to both bulls and bears.

The market is in rally mode this morning. I guess the low last week was close enough to the October 29th low to call it a double bottom. We all knew it was coming at some point so this shouldn't be any big surprise. The falling orange trendline, falling blue trendline and falling red trendline will all be resistance on the way up. So far the futures see to have stalled out at the orange trendline. The short term is obviously bullish but the big picture is still quite bearish. I do not know how long this bounce is going to take but I fully expect it to rollover at some point soon. Closing green today on the DOW would really be helpful to the bears as they need to break the consecutive red days in a row to reset it and allow for another series of down day to occur.

As for todays rally, I'm unsure if it's the "squeeze rally" that will come at some point (which should easily rally 100+ points up) or if this is just resetting the short term charts for another leg down. We are in tough spot here because we never really hit a double bottom and have started back up already. When you compare the SPY/SPX to the Nasdaq/QQQ you'll see they put in a lower low last week. So for now I'm just watching (and staying short) until the picture becomes clearer. I'd like to see a lower low on all the indexes and positive divergence form before I'd believe any rally up will hold. Until then it's just likely a short squeeze to shake out the weak hands. Good Luck as usual.

Looks like it's time for a pause day as the bears easy up and allow the bulls to rally some this morning. There is resistance overhead at three falling trendlines. The first in black around 2670, the next in brownish orange around 2690 and the last in blue around 2710. Now I really don't see this as much more then a bounce as the trend is still down in my opinion. Since today is the day before Thanksgiving the volume should be light today, so I'm not expecting another large down day today.

Could it happen? Sure, but most likely we'll rollover at the open and then back up in the afternoon. If it plays out like that I'd expect a higher low on the early pullback and then up into one of those resistance areas where it should end the bounce. It will probably end up being some kind of ABC up with A up happening right now and into the open. Of course if this ABC up finishes early to midday then the afternoon is open for another big drop, but I'm leaning toward the C up taking all day. It's just because I expect light volume today mainly, but I also think we need a green close today.

Friday will be a half day trading session so it could be another green close day, it's just too hard to predict. Could they crash it on that day? Sure, but my feelings are that we'll be "OK" on Friday and NOT crash. But starting next week I expect the move down to continue. I've not forgotten the 11-11-11 ritual number and the movie named the same. While nothing happened on November 11th, 2018 (the first 11-11-11 day), there's still one more date this year that is also a 11-11-11 day. It's this coming November 29th, 2018... so that would be next possible crash date. Anyway, for today and this Friday let's just watch and let the bulls have their fun and see how high they can get it up to. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving.

P.S.  If we rally up into that falling blue trendline today then yeah, I'd expect this Friday to drop.  But I just don't see that happening today, but it's probably a goal of the bulls for Friday.  Let's see if they can do it.

Well, another down day starting off this morning. We had an intraday FP on the SPY yesterday showing 266.75 but we are already lower then that right now in the premarket, so at this point I'm unsure if that's going to be a level it turns at and bounces. Normally FP's are hit and then a turn the opposite direction starts, so that would of course be up today since it's now hit in the premarket. I have my doubts on that happening now and will just let the bulls prove themselves to me at this point.

We've been tracking the 1987 path for awhile now, so days are almost exact, and others not but still in the same overall pattern. If we don't retrace 38.2%-50% of the move down starting yesterday at some point today then we'll be off that "exact match day" path but remain on the overall pattern for 1987. To continue on the path we need to gap down hard again on Wednesday with the Jan/Feb prior lows in mind as a target. Then this coming Friday (and/or Monday?) the big drop could happen.

That's if we continue to follow the path "day for day", which doesn't seem likely to me, but more then likely is we follow the same pattern with most days the same and some days off a little but the overall big picture is the same. So, if there's a rally today I'd look for that consolation zone tops from yesterday to be the top... which is the 269-270 SPY area. A quick pierce of that level to take out any shorts and lure in bears might happen? Then rolling back down into the close today would be required for an exact match of the 87 path, versus just staying down all day today which would be just staying with the same pattern of having a down day today. It's a very tricky time right now so I'll just play it by ear and update everyone in the chatroom as I see things change. But for now the odds aren't good for any bounce back up that high. If it happens, great. If not, I'm happy with the shorts I have. Good luck to all.

Finally... the bulls stepped up to the plate and rallied up to a nice green close yesterday. But can they do again today is the question? If you are a bear sitting on the sidelines you welcomed that rally but in order to get another large drop I do believe we need a second rally day (today) to lure in enough bulls and shake out enough bears so that the odds will be greatly increased for a nasty down day on Monday.

Yeah, seasonality-wise next week is bullish as it's Thanksgiving week, but the chart tell me otherwise if today closes up nicely. What I'm looking for here is for the bulls to exhaust themselves by rallying strong two days in row, versus hard the first day, rest the second, and rally the third, etc... In other words, the bears best chance is for the bulls to keep on running today without resting.

Now that may or may not happen as clearly the futures are down this morning and they have not pushed through the falling light purple trendline of resistance, which I'd hoped they would have done afterhours yesterday or premarket this morning. Above it is an orange falling trendline, which would be the ideal target to hit going into the close today. It appears to be right around the high from yesterday in the 2730 area. If the bulls can hit it and close up there (or higher would be fine too) that would likely be a green close, which would show exhaustion and lead me to believe we'll drop hard on Monday... fooling the masses expecting a holiday rally.

But if we close red then odds will flip back to the normal bullish holiday pattern, which would be a light volume melt up next week. Therefore I'll only be rooting for the green close today as I hate that light volume crap that puts me to sleep in boredom. P.S. While it doesn't usually happen on Holiday's if we get that green close today to setup Monday for a big down day it could continue right into Wednesday and hit that prior low of 2600 SPX... might even take it out? Look at how they dropped the market this past Veterans Day, so holiday's aren't something forbidden currently like they have been in the past. I've got my crash helmet ready just in case. Have a great weekend.

This 6 hour chart of the ES Futures appears to be turning back up, or at least it's trying to turn back up. That would support those looking for a C wave up rally to start, which should last for several days and likely into next week. And I must agree that normally I'd think the same thing is going to happen. After-all we have a very clean looking "Inverted Head and Shoulders" pattern, as well as positive divergence forming on the MACD's.

But the big picture suggests otherwise. The daily chart of the SPX does not have any positive divergence yet and its Full Stochastic already peaked with the 2815 high and are pointing down right now, which appear to be in the 55 area or so. Since they usually swing from just under 20 to over 80 it tells me there's more room down yet to come before they bottom and turn back up. This also tells me that the SPX is likely to make a lower low then 2600 when that happens.

It "might" then put in positive divergence on the MACD's? If so, then I'd look for a nice rally to setup. Of course all this is just normal charting and excludes the codes and FP's I've discussed in the chatroom. So when this all sets up I'll be left we a choice on whether I believe the charts suggesting a bottom and a rally to start, or if I believe the codes and FP's will override them and cause a crash. We are not there yet (fortunately) but I do think we'll be below 2600 soon and setup all those positive signs suggesting a bottom is in and a rally is to follow.

Only then will my mind get mixed and not know what to do. Until then I'm still looking for small bounces that get sold each day as we continue lower toward 2600 and below. Others see a move up to retest and go over the 2815 recent high to make a small C wave up of a larger B wave up. Targets range up to 2900 fo this move, to just slight over that prior high. I see a monthly chart and weekly chart that are very overbought still and pointing down on their MACD's with moving averages crossing negative and Histogram Bar's going negative too... with plenty of room on the downside yet to go.

These factors when all added up together tell me bounces will be small and short lived as we continue to drop lower each and every day until we reach a sub 2600 level where some things start to appear positive on the charts. For today it's unclear to me. A green close would be welcome for the bears as it would reset the number of "red close days in a row" and allow them to start down again tomorrow. But the futures are flat and charts are all mixed, so I'll just call for a mixed day with no opinion on the close.

Well yesterday was uneventful as the market choppy all day but in the end dropped into the red a little. Today is looking a lot like yesterday with the futures making a lower low (then yesterday) at 4am EST this morning and have been climbing back up ever since then. It really is trying to stage a rally it seems but it might need another day of chop before it happens? If it manages to do it today then it should be a weak rally as it's probably not going up much past the 2750-2760 area from what I see.

At that zone it will run into some tough resistance and likely get overbought on the short term charts too. I'd say that would be the last rally high before another drop that tests the 2600 SPX (2630 ES) prior low. But bears should welcome this rally as it will get them a chance to get short if they missed it and open the door for a deeper drop to follow. There's another resistance area from the falling red trendline pointing to around 2780-2790 but I really don't see that today.

If it hits it, then it's the ultimate gift for the bears. I just don't see the charts aligned up strong enough to hit that zone on this first rally up attempt today. The "lower low" in the futures is a sign to me that this rally will be weak. Let's face it, the trend is now down and the market makers are going to do the same thing to the bulls this time around as they always do to the bears when the market is in a bull trend.

They do gaps then choppy sideways action, then more gaps and more sideways crap. The bull market was relentless every day with tiny 20 point pullbacks and then 80-100 point rallies right afterwards. Rallies up here should be weak too as this is a C wave down of some large degree and it's a widow maker for traders on the wrong side. There will be a nice strong rally up at some point, as there will be too many bears short and they will need to get them out. But I don't see that as the case today.

All I hear about is the obviously Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern with upside target of 2850-2900... so as long as that talk continues I still think the next big move is down. Probably not today, maybe not tomorrow either, but next week should be an ugly one. For the reminder of this week we might be just setting up a series of wave 1's down and wave 2's up, each of lesser degrees, which will ultimately break to the downside in a wave 3 of 3 of 3, etc...

What a surprise! A large down day on a holiday. Strangely I've seen that act before, but predicting in advance isn't easy. The good news though is that forecasting a "pause" day is, and that's what I expect for today. Ideally it closes green but there's no guarantee of that. Tomorrow might be a second pause day too, so keep that in mind. I don't see them rallying up too high to allow the bulls out or the bears in. Dropping it hard yesterday on a holiday was the trick to catch traders off guard. Now that they are trapped I don't expect Mr. Market to let them out.

Everyone see's the "Inverted Head and Shoulders" pattern so I'd expect some bulls to dip their toes into longs, but if this goes like I expect that pattern should fail and the next big drop should follow. At best I think we have two days of choppy sideways consolidation (pause days) before it resolves itself one direction or the other. My thought are that we continue lower. Anyway, I'll just keep this update short as I'm still bearish over all but I'm looking for chop day today so there's not much else to add. Best of luck to you... especially the bulls.