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ES Morning Update July 19th 2016

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Futures chopping sideways making lower highs with resistance overhead from the falling (green) trendline and support at the horizontal (yellow) trendline around 2143.25

MACD's going negative but still basically flat-lined on this 60 minute chart.  However, the 6 hour chart is pointing down nicely, falling from a +15 area high to +5 currently.

From the looks of the chart today it appears we'll be range-bound between resistance (green line) and support (yellow line), pushing the breakout or breakdown out to Wednesday or possibly Thursday.  When I look at the SPX Cash charts I see them also needing one or two more days to make a move.  Pattern wise the wedge the futures are in could be viewed as bullish as it's consolidation... or distribution, which would be bearish.  One could argue for either and be right I guess, but only when it final breaks one direction or the other will we know which.  With all the other charts I look at I have to think we'll breakdown from the wedge... probably Wednesday.  If so, then I'd look for 2125 for support where the 23.6% Fibonacci Level is at, then 2096 for the 38.2%, but I'd look for the zone of 2090-2095 if we go that low, as there good horizontal support there.

On the upside (if we breakout over the green falling trendline) we could go to the 2175 zone.  I have to exclude that as possible as even-though it seems unlikely from the overbought charts and extreme bullishness we all know how crazy and manipulated these markets are... which means "they" really can "walk on water" (push the market up against the grain).  But assuming "they" don't, then we should be range-bound all day today with a float down early and back up later on... ideally closing green a little, close to the falling trendline.  That would setup Wednesday (or Thursday) for a breakdown of the lower horizontal support line yellow.  While this sideways chop looks bullish to most, as it appears to be consolidation, I think the big boys are selling up here and getting ready for the next move down.  While I don't know if the all time high is in or not I think a pullback is long overdue and coming this week.

Chaos erupts on GOP convention floor as anti-Trump delegates make final move

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CLEVELAND — The Republican National Convention was thrown into disarray Monday as delegates opposing Donald Trump made their final stand.

The Colorado delegation walked out of the GOP convention floor after delegates seeking a roll-call vote to change the rules were denied.

At around 4 p.m. ET, the convention's rules were put up for a vote, and the Stop Trump movement wanted to force a roll-call vote to try and change the rules so they could come up with a new nominee.

However, the party passed the rules with a voice vote.

Ken Cuccianelli, the former Virginia attorney general and a leader in the movement to stop Trump's nomination, told MSNBC "this is infuriating to watch."

"Here we've got [the] RNC trampling over their own grassroots delegates, and for most of us here, this is about getting good grassroots rules and getting a voice in the vote," he said. "They cheated."

This is just another source of tension surrounding the RNC.

Outside of the convention, there are several anti-Trump protests expected throughout the week, with some already taking place Monday.

The city of Cleveland was awarded a $50 million federal grant for security during the convention.

That said, Monday's defeat of the anti-Trump movement's last-ditch effort clears the path for the business magnate to be the GOP standard bearer.

Netflix poor subscriber rates likely a bump in the road, say analysts

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Netflix app on a mobile phone

Netflix app on a mobile phone

Despite reporting Q2 subscriber rates that missed expectations, most analysts think Netflix's growth trajectory will improve sooner or later.

The company reported in its Q2 letter to shareholders on Monday that it added 1.7 million subscribers, a steep drop from its forecast of 2.5 million. The U.S. added 160,000 subscribers compared to projection of 500,000, while international subscriber additions totaled 1.5 million compared to the 2.0 million forecast. The stock, already down year-to-date, sank in the after hours, dropping more than 15 percent.

The company said that while total additions were on target, the unsubscribing rate was "up slightly and unexpectedly." Netflix claimed the churn was tied to press coverage in April around its plans to raise prices for long-term members, saying that consumers thought the price effect would occur immediately instead of over a longer period. (The price increase should be completed by the end of the year, the company said on its earnings call.)

Despite missing its guidance, Netflix's quarterly earnings beat expectations. It posted second quarter earnings of 9 cents per share, compared to 6 cents per share year over year. Revenue was at $2.11 billion, compared to $1.65 billion the year prior.

Thompson Reuters consensus estimate was $2.11 billion in revenue, with the company expected to post earnings of 2 cents a share.

Still, many analysts are undeterred. EMarketer senior analyst Paul Verna said Netflix is on the right path, but the fact it is so subscription-based makes its model a little more risky than their competitors like Amazon or YouTube, which have more kinds of revenue streams.

"Amazon has a lot of money to invest in content," said Verna. "They're not looking for the content subscriptions on their own. They're looking to drive e-commerce, and content is part of a much bigger strategy. For Netflix, content is everything."

Mike Goodman, director of digital media strategies for Strategy Analytics, said this earnings report was especially telling for Netflix considering it hasn't met expectations for two quarters. Goldman said Netflix had hit its saturation point for subscribers in the U.S., but the real sign for growth was among international numbers. With lower than expected rates in that realm, the future is a bit murkier for Netflix.

"I don't want to paint a major black cloud over the top of Netflix," Goodman said. "In general, I think they are very strong company, but they're facing growing pains."

The company also has a potential goldmine in distribution revenue if it continues to produce original content that people want to watch.

The model echoes HBO's business plan, said TruOptik CEO Andre Swanson. It wasn't until the network released "The Sopronos" in 1999 — 27 years after it launched — did it start deriving revenue from original content.

"Syndication has historically been a big part of the television industry – and you have to think of Netflix as a television channel. They're not an over-the-air broadcaster. They're distribution channel is online in terms of the way they operate their business, but their ability to own content helps them better monetize. "

Already, Netflix has developed a respectable slate of original series like "Orange is the New Black," "House of Cards" and "Making A Murderer." It confirmed that it it would continue to do so. These shows and movies can be a draw for international viewers attracted to English-language programming, and can help increase subscriber rates. It also gives Netflix a large opportunity for TV distribution rights revenue in different countries.

In addition, the company is working on developing more non-English language series and films in more than a dozen countries, including Brazil, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Columbia, South Korea, Argentina and Spain. Earlier this year, it announced a deal with Univision to broadcast "Narcos," (which is mostly in Spanish, as well as a joint production for an upcoming "El Chapo" series.

Still, it could be little longer until we see Netflix's true potential.

"[Distribution revenue] is another one of those things that doesn't show up immediately," Verna said.

ES Morning Update July 18th 2016

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Looking at the charts this morning they look like the bulls are going to take a rest today.  While the market is set to open green the MACD's are flatlined on this 60 minute chart and the higher time frame charts show a topping and rolling over on them.  This suggests the upside today will be small until a decision is made on going higher after a rest or pulling back some this week.  Hard too fight these bulls as they may still want to go higher?  And of course any dip will likely be bought so today might just be a "pause" day where the bulls don't gain too much ground, nor the bears.

Over on the SPX Cash charts (different time frames) they all show overbought conditions at extreme levels but we all know the market can stay overbought for a very long time.  I get the feeling that we're going to need some type of news event to get the selling started as the techncials don't show anything new today (just more overbought) then they did last week.  Wave count wise as I said Friday we appear to be in a 5th wave up of some kind, or a 3rd that is dividing.  If a 3rd then today's sideways action could make the 4th wave and allow the 5th wave to continue up tomorrow or later this week.  I'm not much into Elliottwave as it's too much of an "afterwards" style of analysis, and not something that can be used successfully to forecast the future.

Not much else to cover here.  I'll put up a new chart in the chartroom should we get some kind of movement whereas I can see something in the technicals to give us a better forecast.  Until then we just have watch the paint dry I guess...

ES Morning Update July 15th 2016

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Ok guys... finally there appears to be some weakness showing up in this bull run! Yippeeee!  As you can see for the first time since the two 2100 tops we've had a pullback afterhours in this 60 minute ES Futures chart.  In the chatroom yesterday I showed you all a chart with the most likely wave count.  I also showed you a new FP on the VIX I got yesterday.  So if that wave count is correct (not that I'm a big fan of EW but it does add to TA) then we had a small wave 4 down afterhours/premarket and are now in the final 5th wave up inside the larger C wave up... which should be the last wave in this BREXIT low rally.  I think we'll hit the VIX FP at the same time this 5th ends... which could be at the end the day today?  Who knows when?

Over the weekend and early next week we have turn dates from various places/sources/etc... with one being on the 17th, another the 18th-21st and some coded stuff that I think points to 7.16.16 as important.  So while most bears are toast now, underwater in every position they have, it now (Finally) is looking like a good short.  With the wave count looking aligned, the new VIX FP, and the turn dates over the weekend and early next week (Plus the RNC on the 18th where they will choose Trump as their choice to represent their party for President) there's a lot of things to favor the bears here.  All in all it's looking good for top of some kind that will give us a multiday pullback, so bears (if you aren't all sleeping) might want to think about a short today.

If we have an important top today then we should pullback most of next week if my ABC wave count from the 1980 low turns into a 5 wave pattern, whereas then the pullback will be a larger wave 4 down and larger 5 wave up will be yet to come.  This would also change my larger wave C up to a larger wave 3 up... but the smaller wave 5 up is still valid as it would then just be inside a larger wave 3 up instead of larger wave C up.  (Refer to the chart I posted in the chatroom yesterday if you need to see the arrows drawn for the various waves).  Regardless of the depth of the pullback we are looking good for one to start next week, probably as early as Monday.  If this move up turns into an ABC instead of a 5 wave pattern then the pullback could lower then the 1980 recent low... if only a larger wave 4 down then it shouldn't break 2100 next week.

ES Morning Update July 14th 2016

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The futures continue higher, wiping out more and more bears.  At this point they really might be headed to the 230 SPY FP from late last year, it's just too hard too believe right now.

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There's a rising trendline of resistance overhead that the futures came close to this premarket, which could be enough resistance to allow a pullback.  But right now there's seems to be nothing stopping the bulls as they gap up, trade sideways all day and ram it up again overnight to gap up the following day to do it all over again.  I'm sure I'm not the only bear out there that didn't see this coming and is now drowning.

So, at this point I just will watch and wait patiently as chasing this bull is futile.  If it goes to 230 on the SPY (2300 SPX) I'll just watch it happen without me.  Not that I'm a stubborn bear but more like "I can't believe the rally will continue", so why chase it?  It's not going up on traders going long, it's going up on bears' having to buy back their shorts at a loss.  Unfortunately those bears keep shorting on ever move higher.

Anyway, that rising trendline is all I see as overhead resistance.  Other then that we are in uncharted waters overhead so the upside is unlimited.  The downside levels aren't worth calling out right now as I'm sure every bear knows them anyway.  I'm pretty tire of chasing this bull so I'm just going to sit on my hands and watch until he tires out.  Then I'm going to kill him and eat him!  🙂

ES Morning Update July 13th 2016

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Futures finally are looking like they are tiring out a little this morning they are just barely green.  Yesterday I pointed out a pattern of 1,2,3 tops then drop and we are just looking for that 3rd top to show up and stop, which is where we will have good odds of a pullback.  It looks like it "might" have completed yesterday but I'm not positive as the "tops" are hard too point out due to the pullbacks on them being so small.  But considering that this is option expiration week (normally bullish) and our next turn dates are the 18th-21st we might not see much of any down move this week, but instead just some sideways chop to frustrate the bulls and bears alike.  Today looks like it "wants" to be a pause day where it just chops sideways until it hits that rising trendline of support around the close.

Some of the various charts I look at now show extreme levels that have never been hit before.  Bullishness is beyond extreme and the $NYHGH at 564.00 is at an unbelievable reading.  And strangely many of the longer term charts appear bullish now, like the monthly and weekly.  But it's common for them to look bullish or bearish and not turn the other way until half (or all) the move is over with, so I don't buy into those readings yet.

For now though the market still moving up and very hard too read without some pullback to see some divergences setup, trendline of support or resistance to form, wave count to appear, or something other then a rocket ship to the moon.  I think we'll see one or more of those things by the end of this week but it sure it hard to watch every day these gap ups and sideways moves the rest of the day.  Not much else to add.  I'm just waiting on some clouds in the sky to forecast a rainy day is coming, but right now it's sunny every day with zero clouds.

ES Morning Update July 12th 2016

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1,2,3 tops then pullback

Yesterday I pointed out that the common thing that the market usually does is to go up 10-20 points higher then the prior top before pulling back, and it's looking likely that we'll see the SPX cash up in that range today from the looks of the futures.  If history repeats itself then we "should" see a top today and few days of a pullback like the July 1st to 6th pullback.  Of course if too many bears have caught on to this pattern we could see them stretch it higher, but hopefully that's not the case.  Certainly this rally has wiped out a ton of bears and fooled the masses once again... including myself.  I honestly did not believe the market could go up this high this fast, but there was an inverted head and shoulders pattern in the charts... it's just that I didn't think it could play out with all the technical damage done from BREXIT (which is mostly gone now... LOL).

Calling tops in this market is very very hard as it's rigged to the upside, whereas the bottoms are easier to pick as they are usually "V" formations.  Even if they are not, they are still easier to find because those that run the market want it up much more often then they want it down... hence the reason why the market is bullish 80% of the time and bearish only 20% of the time.  Anyway, it is what it is and can't fight it.  With the Fed always manipulating the market to keep it a float you just have to go with them until they stop.  And right now they seem hell bent on preventing a crash later this summer... which I'm sure is political.  Maybe they succeed... I just don't know?  But I do think we still have another serious correction coming very soon and while it might not take out the 1800 level I do see us getting close to it again, which then the Fed's might come in and save the fat pig again.

Ok, for the market today.  There is a 3 top pattern I've noticed that happens a lot, whereas you'll see a top, tiny pullback, another squeeze up to top again, one more tiny pullback and then one more final squeeze to get out the last bear... then a decent move down.  We've had that many times as noted on this chart.  While it doesn't guarantee you that it will repeat again it's all I have right now to make an analysis on.  If it works again then we could (should) see a pullback to the 2100 area in the next few days where big support is at.  At that point you can certainly expect some trapped bears (if there are any left alive?) to exit, which would also cause a bounce back up.  Of course on the upside there's really no limit as we are in uncharted territory now.  So around 2155 on the SPX cash would be 20 points higher then the 2135 May 2015 prior high.  Let's see if they reach and tire out like they've done so many times before.

ES Morning Update July 11th 2016

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The futures are still grinding higher this Monday morning after a huge squeeze to new all time highs last Friday.  This likely because the cash index for both the DOW and the S&P500 did not quite make it up to new all time high Friday, but should today from the looks of the futures.  In the past when new all time highs were made it was common to pierce through them 10-20 points before reversing back down.  If they go much above that then the bears could be in for some serious trouble and that "might" start some huge rally to 2300 or more.  For now though we have to look at the technical picture and it suggests a pullback will happen from this double top just like they do with most other double tops.  This "should" be a fake out move up to take out the last bear and lure in the last bull.  I will say though that this market is getting harder and harder to forecast as previous patterns don't seem to work as much today, and moves in either direction are being stretched further then expected.

The goal for SkyNet is to get everyone bullish and all the bears out before dropping the market.  I'd hoped that happened on Friday but falling short a few points of new all times on the DOW and S&P500 cash indexes must have prevent it.  I also thought we might pullback today and grind back up to make this slightly higher high later this week, like Wednesday or Thursday, but it will likely happen today from the looks of the futures.  In the past we saw the bulls get up to a new high and chop around for several days before giving up and let the bears have some fun.  Back in mid-May of 2015 when that all time high was put in we saw 5 days of chop before a drop... which might happen here too.  This again points to later this week before the pullback happening.  As long as I see chop and no more then 20 points or so over the 2135 SPX high last year I'll stick with the plan that we'll rollover and not march on up to 2300 or so.

In this crazy trading market today it's always wise to layer into positions, which is why I take longs or shorts in stages, or partial positions.  I'll look for my final partial position this week after we first make a new all time high, pullback some and then retest back up again with a lower high.  As far as levels go, they should be obvious... the 2100 area is now horizontal support on the downside and there's nothing on the upside yet worth mentioning.  No trendline created at this point but I'm sure there's some Fibonacci levels if one wants to research it.  I'll stick with about 20 points higher as my point of reference.  Again, I'm expecting the bulls to chop around up here for several days to frustrate the bears.  Once the bears finally throw in the towel we should start moving lower for several weeks.  This is option expiration week, which is normally bullish, but this time I think it will be choppy until it rolls over later in the week.

ES Morning Update July 8th 2016

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Rising trendline of resistance could be rode up early this morning

Rising trendline of support still isn't anywhere near breaking down

MACD's on this 60 minute chart could run up for at least half the day before getting overbought

Negative Divergences are setting up everywhere. Both on this ES Futures chart and the SPX cash.  This suggests a down move is coming after first tricking the bulls into going long to trap them.  Bears should not go to sleep here as a turn back down is very close.  Today's job data could very well end up being the "turn date"?  False breakouts are common near the end of a move and this looks a lot more like the end of a rally then the start of one.  The technical's just don't support the "Inverted Head and Shoulders" pattern that's formed now.  Many times these are false breakouts done to squeeze out the last bear and get the bulls fully long.  I think that's the case here too.

Looking at the breakthrough we just had from the jobs data news we've cleared out many bears that had their stops right above the horizontal resistance zone of 2100.  This doesn't mean we'll rollover right at the open as new bears will short it, and I wouldn't be surprised if we dipped some early on and then came back up later in the day to wipe-out today's bears as well.  SkyNet is very quick to adapt as we traders pick up on it's patterns, and as soon as we do it will change them.  Meaning the "short the gap up" move that used too work all the time in the past doesn't work as much today because so many people figured it out.  While taking a short up near the open for the bigger picture is still wise in my opinion we might get a better spot later in the day.

Layering in shorts is what I've had to do over the last year as we are in a very, very manipulated period where things get extended out longer then one can believe.  I'll be watching early on today to see if this pulls back and appears to be the real move or just some dip before one more move up late in the day.  Personally I think we don't roll until the afternoon session.  So don't fall for this upside breakout as being some new rally, it's very likely the end of one.  While no one can guarantee some directional change will happen on this date or that date the charts are telling us that a turn back down is near.  But give this some time to roll as I don't see it happening early in the day.

ES Morning Update July 6th 2016

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The futures are now in a nice falling channel.

The MACD's are having a tough time turning back up because the larger time frames are still pointing down.

So far it's looking good for this move down to continue to the 2060 area (or lower).  The 38.2% Fib. pullback level is around 2055 so I'd look for the 2055-2060 to be the first support and most likely bounce zone.  I will add this though... lately it seems that SkyNet doesn't give us that many decent bounces or dips (the B waves or 2's and 4's) but instead just continues in one direction for a much bigger move then most people expect.  The huge squeeze up last week was a perfect example, but it's been happening a lot lately... especially the last 1-2 years.  It's like the typical retracement levels aren't typical anymore.  Instead we see 78.6% moves or 90-95% moves, then a reversal.

Anyway, I'd look to exit shorts today at some point, but it might be some slow drift lower all day that quietly drops without waking up the bears.  That seems to be the scheme these days, or to just drop it off a cliff like the BREXIT move, which is too fast for the bears to see coming.  That implies that the bounce coming will either be very weak (like 23.8% Fib.?) or another big squeeze that might even double top the 2100 high last Friday.  Personally I think the bounce will be small as there are many gaps below that needed filled but it's best to just take this one day at a time.  I would NOT go long when we hit the support zone as we are still in a bear market and bounces are best shorted, instead of trading to the upside.

On the SPX it should be in the 2065 area I believe.  On the SPY it's the 206.50 zone.  Calling an exact level is tough, so I just give you ranges and then we try to get closer during the day in the chatroom when possible.  As you all know most of the volume is in the first couple of hours in the day and the last hour of the day, which is why many tops and bottoms seem to appear then.  Nothing more to add that wasn't said yesterday.  Have a great day.

Pope Francis says Church should apologize to gays

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Pope Francis, flanked by Vatican spokesman Federico Lombardi, addressed journalists on the flight back from Armenia

Pope Francis has said that the Roman Catholic Church should apologize to gay people for the way it has treated them.

He told reporters that the Church had no right to judge the gay community, and should show them respect.

Pope Francis, flanked by Vatican spokesman Federico Lombardi, talks to journalists on flight back to Vatican, at end of three-day visit to Armenia, Sunday, June 26

The pontiff also said the Church should seek forgiveness from other people it had marginalized - women, the poor, and children forced into labor.

The Pope has been hailed by many in the gay community for his positive attitude towards homosexuals.

But some conservative Catholics have criticized him for making comments they say are ambiguous about sexual morality.

Speaking to reporters on his plane returning from Armenia, the Pope said: "I will repeat what the catechism of the Church says, that they [homosexuals] should not be discriminated against, that they should be respected, accompanied pastorally."

Pope Francis said the Church should seek forgiveness from those whom it had marginalized.The Pope and Armenian patriarch release doves in ceremony at Khor Virap monastery, Armenia, 26 June 2016Pope and Armenian patriarch Catholicos Karekin II released doves of peace near Mt Ararat

"I think that the Church not only should apologize... to a gay person whom it offended but it must also apologize to the poor as well, to the women who have been exploited, to children who have been exploited by [being forced to] work. It must apologize for having blessed so many weapons."

In 2013, Pope Francis reaffirmed the Roman Catholic Church's position that homosexual acts were sinful, but homosexual orientation was not.

"If a person is gay and seeks God and has good will, who am I to judge?" he said then.

Pope Francis speaking to journalists about the EU: "Let's not throw the baby out with the bath water"

In other remarks on Sunday, the Pope said he hoped the European Union would be able to recover following the UK's decision to leave.

"There is something that is not working in that bulky union, but let's not throw the baby out with the bath water, let's try to jump-start things, to re-create," he said.Armenians wait to see Pope at the Khor Virap monastery, Armenia. 26 June 2016Thousand's of Armenians traveled to see the Pope during his visit

During his visit to the Armenian capital, Yerevan, the Pope described the mass killing of Armenians under Ottoman Turkish rule in World War One as "genocide".

Turkey has always disputed the numbers killed and angrily rejects the term "genocide".

In response, Turkish deputy prime minister Nurettin Canikli said the Pope's comments were "very unfortunate" adding it was "possible to see all the reflections and traces of crusader mentality in the actions of the papacy".

The Pope's spokesman, Father Federico Lombardi, later told reporters: "The Pope is on no crusade. He is not trying to organize wars or build walls but he wants to build bridges. He has not said a word against the Turkish people."

After Orlando Massacre, Gun Sale Background Checks Spike in June

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It has become a familiar pattern in the United States: After a mass shooting, Americans try to stock up on guns.

Background checks for firearm sales spiked in June, the same month a shooter killed 49 people at an Orlando gay nightclub, according to data released by the FBI late last week. This spike in background checks outpaced all previous years by a substantial margin, as seen in the chart below, which compares background checks in June against the previous 10 years

This is not a one-time phenomenon. After past mass shootings, similar spikes have been observed. Though background checks are not exactly the same as gun sales, past analyses have found they are a close proxy for sales.

In particular, after the Sandy Hook Elementary shooting and after the San Bernardino and Colorado Springs shootings — which all occurred just before the holidays — gun background checks for sales increased at rates seen at no other comparable points in the history of the data that the FBI collects and releases to the public about firearm background checks. A disproportionately large number of those checks were for long guns, like those used in recent mass shootings. The year after Sandy Hook went on to beat gun sales records by double-digit margins.

While background checks have spiked after mass shootings, the number of U.S. households with at least one gun has been steadily declining. Gun sales more than doubled between 2002 and 2013, even as household ownership flat-lined.

The following chart, which surveys adults through 2014, shows the decades-long decline in gun ownership, which a survey suggested at the time could be linked to a decline in hunting.

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Chipotle executive turns himself in to face drug charges

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This Monday, Feb. 8, 2016, photo shows the sign over a Chipotle Mexican Grill in Brandon, Fla. The Chipotle marketing executive leading the chain’s efforts to rebound after an E. coli outbreak was arrested Tuesday, July 5, 2016, on multiple counts of cocaine possession. (Chris O’Meara/Associated Press)

NEW YORK — The Chipotle executive leading the chain’s efforts to rebound after an E. coli outbreak that has sent sales plunging turned himself in Tuesday to face cocaine-possession charges, his lawyer said.

Mark Crumpacker, one of the Mexican food chain’s top executives, heads marketing as its chief creative and development officer. Since the outbreak last year, Chipotle has been trying incentives, coupons and other plans to win customers back.

New York Police Department Sgt. Lee Jones said Crumpacker, 53, was arrested at 9 a.m. Tuesday on seven counts of possession of a controlled substance. Crumpacker’s attorney, Gerald Lefcourt, said Crumpacker was not in New York over the weekend and turned himself in on Tuesday morning.

He was released on $4,500 cash bail and his next court date is Sept. 8, Lefcourt said. Crumpacker did not respond to a message left on his cellphone.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. said late Thursday it placed Crumpacker on leave following a New York Daily News report that he was among 18 customers of a cocaine ring named in an indictment by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office.

According to the indictment, Crumpacker bought cocaine on multiple dates between Jan. 29 and May 14. During that time, Chipotle was trying to manage the fallout from the E. coli outbreak that had come to light this past fall, as well as other subsequent food scares.

One of the alleged cocaine purchases came on the same day Chipotle temporarily closed a store in Massachusetts amid concerns that some employees had norovirus.

Crumpacker was given a pay package worth $4.3 million last year, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Chipotle saw sales at established locations drop 30 percent in the first quarter of the year. The efforts to rebound have included coupons for free burritos, a summertime loyalty program, and plans to introduce chorizo as a topping in restaurants nationally.

The company said Crumpacker’s responsibilities have been assigned to other senior managers.

“We made this decision in order to remain focused on the operation of our business, and to allow Mark to focus on these personal matters,” Chipotle said in its statement.

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Why Two of Europe’s Biggest Banks Can’t Pass the Stress Test

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The vast majority of big banks seem to be getting a handle on the costly, labor-intensive and time-consuming stress-testing process. Twenty-nine institutions have cleared the bar in each of the last two years.

For a pair of large banking companies, however, Santander Holdings USA and Deutsche Bank Trust Corp., the stress tests have so far proven to be an unconquerable challenge.

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The Federal Reserve Board announced Wednesday that the two were alone in failing this year's Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review. The results marked the second consecutive failed stress test for the unit of Germany-based Deutsche Bank, and the third straight year that Santander's U.S. arm has flunked.

Both companies met the minimum regulatory capital ratios that are required by the Fed, but they fell short on qualitative grounds, just as they did in 2015. The Deutsche and Santander units were both called out for what the Fed identified as deficiencies in risk-management processes and stress-testing processes, though the Fed also said that both firms have made progress.

Both of the struggling banks are foreign-owned, but observers were split on whether that factor is contributing to their poor results.

Oliver Ireland, a partner at Morrison & Foerster, said that they may be the result of different priorities at the parent company level.

"The U.S. regulators may have the full attention of the U.S. management, but they may not have the same attention of the foreign management," he said.

But Will Newcomer, a vice president at Wolters Kluwer, expressed doubt that European ownership is a factor. "I can't imagine a foreign parent being less interested," he said.

Deutsche and Santander were quick to note that the Fed determined that they have adequate levels of capital. But they also acknowledged that they have work left to do.

"We appreciate the Federal Reserve's recognition of our progress," said Bill Woodley, deputy chief executive of Deutsche Bank Americas, in a press release, "and we will implement the lessons learned this year in order to strengthen our capital planning process for future CCAR submissions."

Scott Powell, CEO of Santander Holdings USA, said in a press release, "We have made progress, but our internal capital planning, stress testing, internal controls, governance and oversight require further improvement to meet our regulators' expectations."

The key question now is what will be the consequences for repeated failures. Santander Holdings USA, a unit of Banco Santander in Spain, is the first bank to fail CCAR three years in a row.

The Fed noted Wednesday that when banks fail the test, they may not make any capital distributions to their shareholders unless expressly authorized by the Fed.

In the past, the Fed has said that banks that demonstrate a chronic inability or unwillingness to correct deficient behavior can also be subject to enhanced regulatory actions, including but not limited to cease-and-desist orders.

But a senior Fed official told reporters Wednesday that the Santander and Deutsche units are committing more resources to the stress-testing process. At the same time, the official acknowledged the possibility that there could be additional consequences if the two banks continue to fail stress tests in future years.

In any event, the stress-testing struggles of Santander and Deutsche do not reflect the experiences of all foreign-owned banks.

BBVA Compass, BMO Financial, HSBC North America and MUFG Americas are among the foreign-owned banks that passed this year's stress test. So did first-time participants BankWest Corp. and TD Group US Holdings, both of which are also owned by foreign banks.

The results were also positive Wednesday for almost all of the large U.S.-based banks. The capital plans submitted by JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup and numerous regional banks did not receive an objection from the Fed.

That stamp of approval means that the companies can move forward with their plans for dividends and share repurchases.

The Fed's thumbs-up carried special significance for Ally Financial, which failed the stress tests in 2012 and 2013, and has yet to pay a dividend since going public in 2014. Detroit-based Ally recently emerged from a fight with activist investors who wanted more capital to be sent to shareholders.

Under Ally's capital plan, the firm plans to start paying a quarterly dividend in August, and to repurchase up to $700 million in stock over the next year.

"The inaugural dividend since becoming publicly traded is a critical step in returning capital to Ally shareholders," CEO Jeffrey Brown said in a press release.

Two U.S.-based banks did encounter problems, but both of them still passed the stress tests.

The Fed lodged what it calls a conditional non-objection with respect to Morgan Stanley's capital plan. The investment banking firm is being required to address certain weaknesses and resubmit its capital plan by Dec. 29.

M&T Bank initially fell short of the Fed's minimum required regulatory capital ratios, but the Buffalo, N.Y., company submitted an adjusted capital plan that enabled it to pass.

Overall, the results suggested that seven years after the stress tests were established, they are becoming a more routine exercise for most large banks.

"Over the six years in which CCAR has been in place, the participating firms have strengthened their capital positions and improved their risk-management capacities," Fed Gov. Daniel Tarullo said in a press release.

Starting next year, most regional banks with assets of $50 billion to $250 billion are expected to be exempted from the qualitative portion of the stress tests. The senior Fed official said Wednesday that those firms have made substantial progress in improving their capital planning.

In part one of the stress tests, which was released last week, the Fed concluded that the nation's 33 biggest bank holding companies have added more than $700 billion in common equity capital since 2009.

Part two took into account each bank's specific plan for returning capital to shareholders, rather than relying on a standard formula, as the first part did.

In between last week's results and those released on Wednesday, U.S. banks got a real-life stress test, when global financial markets were rattled by the decision of U.K. voters to leave the European Union. The Brexit outcome was not a specific part of the severely adverse scenario that the Fed established for this year's test, but the scenario did foresee serious recessions in the U.K., the eurozone and the United States.

ES Morning Update July 5th 2016

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Futures finally broke-down from the rising trendline of support and are now showing weakness.

MACD's are pointing down nicely but a lot of the energy for the move down has been used up now.

First... Happy "Independence Day" for all Americans that celebrated the 4th of July holiday where our country turn 240 years old.

Now for the market, an early look at the futures charts and the SPX cash chart leads me to believe we are about to go into the 3-5 weeks "Chop Zone" before the big drop as this looks eerily similar to the late June to late July period in 2011.  Not focusing so much on the magnitude of the drop that happened after the BREXIT vote but just looking at the large white candle close on the weekly chart of 06/27/2011 with comparison to the weekly chart of 06/27/2016 and while not exact... I think we are about to have a similar pattern play out.

The down move then (from the high on 7/7/2011) to the low (7/18/2011) before the final rally back up before the crash was only about 60 SPX point.  This time I think the down move will be larger due to the increased volatility and the contraction in time now versus back then.  And the crash that follows should be much larger then the August 2011 mini-crash.  Since we all know we are going down to the 1850 SPX zone at some point it's possible that is the first big drop in the crash, then another rally (some Fib. Level retracement) and then the big plunge toward 1500 or 1600 area?

As I said, I think the range will be much larger now then the 60 point range in 2011, but I don't see the range dropping to 1850 first and then back up and down and up until the crash.  The SPX Cash chart doesn't really support that right now.  Anyway, this is just a lot of speculation right now on the "BIG Picture" and best left for another day.  Let's get to the short term...

The futures look to have dropped in some kind of A wave down and will likely rally back up early for the B wave, but I think there's another wave down coming... the C wave, as I suspect we are heading to the 2060 area on this move down.  Why you ask?  Because of a "possible" FP on the SPY of 206.67 from 6/30 that tells me that's the target they want to go to.  The last FP was 210.84 and we almost tagged it on Friday falling short at 210.47, which is a change as in the past most FP's were pierced through (especially on the upside... not so much on the downside) by as much as a point.  Now we are falling short of them going up and piercing on the down moves.  This is another sign to me that we are in a bear market now, unlike the bull market of the last 7 years where the FP's always were pierced going up and commonly fell short going down.

Ok, how to play today... well, since it's the first day back after a long holiday I wouldn't expect much volume to show up.  This leans toward the bulls of course, so I'd look for that early morning low to happen and then a noon-time float higher that might continue into the close making a lower high then last week.  Then if all goes well... meaning we close up (green... not red like right now) we should end that B wave up and have the C wave down to the 2060 zone on Tuesday.  Then we look for another bounce... rinse and repeat.

Science|A Model for ‘Clean Coal’ Runs Off the Tracks

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DE KALB, Miss. — The fortress of steel and concrete towering above the pine forest here is a first-of-its-kind power plant that was supposed to prove that “clean coal” was not an oxymoron — that it was possible to produce electricity from coal in a way that emits far less pollution, and to turn a profit while doing so.

The plant was not only a central piece of the Obama administration’s climate plan, it was also supposed to be a model for future power plants to help slow the dangerous effects of global warming. The project was hailed as a way to bring thousands of jobs to Mississippi, the nation’s poorest state, and to extend a lifeline to the dying coal industry.

The sense of hope is fading fast, however. The Kemper coal plant is more than two years behind schedule and more than $4 billion over its initial budget, $2.4 billion, and it is still not operational.

The plant and its owner, Southern Company, are the focus of a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation, and ratepayers, alleging fraud, are suing the company. Members of Congress have described the project as more boondoggle than boon. The mismanagement is particularly egregious, they say, given the urgent need to rein in the largest source of dangerous emissions around the world: coal plants.

The plant’s backers, including federal energy officials, have defended their work in recent years by saying that delays and cost overruns are inevitable with innovative projects of this scale. In this case, they say, the difficulties stem largely from unforeseen factors — or “unknown unknowns,” as Tom Fanning, the chief executive of Southern Company, has often called them — like bad weather, labor shortages and design uncertainties.

Many problems plaguing the project were broadly known and had been occurring for years. But a review by The New York Times of thousands of pages of public records, previously undisclosed internal documents and emails, and 200 hours of secretly though legally recorded conversations among more than a dozen colleagues at the plant offers a detailed look at what went wrong and why.

Those documents and recordings, provided to The Times by a whistle-blower, an engineer named Brett Wingo, and interviews with more than 30 current or former regulators, contractors, consultants or engineers who worked on the project, show that the plant’s owners drastically understated the project’s cost and timetable, and repeatedly tried to conceal problems as they emerged.

The system of checks and balances that are supposed to keep such projects on track was outweighed by a shared and powerful incentive: The company and regulators were eager to qualify for hundreds of millions of dollars in federal subsidies for the plant, which was also aggressively promoted by Haley Barbour, who was Southern’s chief lobbyist before becoming the governor of Mississippi. Once in office, Mr. Barbour signed a law in 2008 that allowed much of the cost of building any new power plants to be passed on to ratepayers before they are built.

Seeing so many of the problems from the inside, at least one employee felt the need to speak up.

“I’ve reached a personal tipping point and feel a duty to act,” Mr. Wingo wrote in a 2014 email, which was among several that he sent to officials of Southern Company and Mississippi Power, the state utility that runs the plant, alleging that the company had broken federal law and engaged in corporate fraud. “Hope is not a strategy,” he added. “This is a high-profile project with many misguided enemies, so why give them free ammo?”

In their recorded conversations with Mr. Wingo, at least six senior engineers from the plant said that they believed that the delays and cost overruns, as well as safety violations and shoddy work, were partly the result of mismanagement or fraud.

Brett Wingo, an engineer who was once an advocate for the Kemper project, became a whistle-blower who alleged mismanagement and fraud.

“It has nothing to do with the design, it has nothing to do with the technology, it just has to do with poor project management,” Landon Lunsford, an engineer at the plant, said during one recorded call with Mr. Wingo last December, when they discussed an email from Southern’s legal department telling senior employees to retain all emails because of a continuing S.E.C. investigation.

The company will never admit the project-management problems because they will attract more scrutiny from regulators, Mr. Lunsford said. “As long as they can talk away the results as attributable to something else other than just poor performance, the other public service commissions can’t hold them over the fire as much,” he added.

Officials from Southern Company and Mississippi Power, which is a Southern subsidiary, said that they could not comment on Mr. Wingo’s allegations but that all decisions about cost and budget projections were made by consensus. They also said that Mr. Wingo’s accusations had previously been investigated by the company and could not be substantiated. Mr. Wingo was fired in February, a move that the Occupational Safety and Health Administration later ruled illegal.

Ed Holland, the former chief executive of Mississippi Power, added that one of the project’s biggest mistakes was to start construction with little of the plant designed. “We still believe that from our investors’ standpoint, this was a wise investment to prove the technology,” he said in an interview.

In the end, the Kemper project is a story of how a monopoly utility, with political help from the Mississippi governor and from federal energy officials who pressured state regulators in letters to support the project, shifted the burden of one of the most expensive power plants ever built onto the shoulders of unwitting investors and some of the lowest-income ratepayers in the country.

Kemper’s rising price tag and other problems will probably affect the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed rules on new power plants, and also play into broader discussions about the best way to counter climate change. E.P.A. regulations in effect require new coal plants to have carbon capture technology but are being held up in federal court partly by arguments that the technology is not cost-effective.

The importance of this technology grows, as well, after President Obama said last week that the United States would join Canada and Mexico in pledging to reach a shared goal of generating 50 percent of North America’s electricity from zero-carbon sources by 2025, up from 37 percent today, with a power mix that includes wind, solar, hydropower, nuclear energy and coal or gas power paired with carbon capture technology.

“The big question with clean coal has always been whether it’s a moonshot or a money pit,” said Charles Grayson, the director of the Bigger Pie Forum, which advocates fiscal conservatism in Mississippi and has been critical of the Kemper project for years. “The Obama administration and my state made a really bad wager in trying to use Kemper to make the economic argument for this technology.”

High Hopes

Coal represents a conundrum: It is among the dirtiest sources of fuel, producing roughly 45 percent of the emissions that contribute to climate change. And yet the world still relies on it for power, with more than a quarter of the electricity used globally coming from coal plants.

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You can buy a ‘ghost town’ in Colorado on Craigslist for $350000

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Cabin Creek, Colorado a “ghost town” in rural Adams County, east of Denver, is up for sale.

“We’ve had so many people look it`s been amazing,” James Johnson, who currently owns the town, told KDVR-TV. Recently, Johnson placed a “for sale” ad on Craigslist to sell his town.

For the inspiring price of $350,000, a buyer will receive an old service station, a café, an abandoned motel and one small home. At the town’s peak, the cafe served as a hotspot for residents in surrounding the town.

“The couple who owned the town, and ran the cafe, served the best chicken fried steak in the state,” Byers resident Joan Lippett said of the town he once frequented.The cafe in 1973 (Photo: Cabin Creek, Colorado)

But after a murder in the 1970s, the town became a ghost town. “There was some people that they took in, felt sorry for or something, and they found out the couple had money,” Lippett said. “Then everything just, literally, there was nobody here, so these buildings sat totally vacant.  Nothing going on out here for a number of years.”Brooks Eveland, Owner of Cabin Creek 1969 to 1975 (Photo: Cabin Creek, Colorado)

Johnson once had big dreams to capitalize on Route 66 tourism and opportunities, but his wife now wants to retire somewhere else. He’s hoping there is someone with similar aspirations.

“The hardest part out here is you`re not going to get a regular conventional loan on this property.  You say, ‘ghost town’ and they say, ‘What?’,” Johnson said.

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ES Morning Update July 1st 2016

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Rising trendline support for now.

Negative divergence forming with lower highs.

The futures rallied up yesterday and stopped around the 2090 resistance but this morning they are acting like they plan to break it and continue higher.  Next resistance is 2100, then 2110 from the 6/8 high, and finally the double top at 2120 from 6/23.  On the downside we have 2075 and then 2060 as support, but first the rising trendline of support will have to breakdown and considering this is the last day before the 4th of July holiday weekend I would be surprised to see much downside.

What to do today?  Hard too say until we see some weakness.  You just can't short this without seeing something in the charts first and let's face it, the market aren't showing nothing but very overbought right now.  So far this still looks like some giant bear squeeze, but you can't go long up here... nor short it as you don't know where it will end yet.  It's really hard to believe how they can run the market straight down over a 100 SPX points and then straight back up over a 100 points without and real pullback.

On a positive note for the bears there was a very large amount of volume yesterday on the SPY, about double the usual amount.  I doubt if it was bulls buying but more likely it was a lot of bears getting squeezed out with their stops being hit.  This suggests a pullback at least is near as without bears to squeeze it's pretty hard to continue rallying up higher.  So possibly we that rising trendline of support break today and a move down to 2075 or 2060 (on the futures) happen.

ES Morning Update June 30th 2016

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Futures finally ran into some resistance and seem too be taking a pause for now.

MACD's are pointing down finally from getting very overbought yesterday.

Today looks like we'll have a small pullback, and ideally they will squeak out a slightly higher high first and rollover later in the day.  What should happen is for the MACD's to turn back up a little to allow that slightly higher high in the futures and then roll back down and head toward the zero level where the real test is at.  If the bull is still strong then the zero line is where he should turn back up to make that higher high, but if he's weak he might try to turn it back up where's it at now around the +5 zone.

If that happens I don't see much more on the upside as the bulls will be too weak... maybe 10 points?  If they drop first to the zero line on the MACD's and take all day to do it, while not dropping below 2050 then they could gather more strength for a run at 2090-2100 on Friday or Monday.

Put simply... an early in the day "higher high" is better for the bears and then a bigger pullback should happen.  An early pullback to reset the short term overbought charts is better for the bulls as they can regroup and push up stronger Friday and possibly Monday.  All in all it looks like a choppy day to start with as the bulls and bears fight it out at this resistance level.  I would look to short any pops higher with the mindset that over the next 1-2 weeks we should be going back down to take out the 1981 low.  The move might start over the 4th of July weekend or it starts later today or Friday?  Either way we close to the end of this first big rally.  If the bulls want a 2nd rally they need to pullback for a day or so first, but if they keep pushing up from this "very tired" first move up there won't likely be any 2nd move.

On the upside there's resistance all the way up to 2090 and on the downside there's support in the 2045-2050 area, then the 2030 area.  Closes support is the 2060 level and that might be the plan for the bulls to just slightly pullback, which will basically form a bull flag, so they can reset the charts for another move up on Friday.  Just watching the small moves in the chart right now it's "feeling" like it's going to be one of those choppy sideways days where we might all be better off skipping.

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