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Weekend Update – Will The Elections Crash The Market?

Red
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Weekend Update – Will The Elections Crash The Market?

No, but the FOMC meeting likely could...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbXFJHaGB1o)

Yes, the market will just be in a "wait and see" mode until 2:15 pm on Wednesday as the Fed's will probably release the amount of new stimulus (Quantitative Easing... aka QE2) that they will inject into the market over the coming months(notice I didn't say "economy"?  ...that's because the money will never make it to the unemployed American, but will instead end up in some Banksters pocket on Wallstreet).

You know, I never thought they could actually keep this market up all the way until the elections.... but they did!  Absolutely amazing!  I thought many times that it would sell off first, as traders take profit before the unknown outcome on November 2nd.

You never can tell what the gangsters have planned, as even though I thought the market will sell off some in front of the elections, and crash afterwards... even that could be wrong?  I don't know for sure about anything anymore.  While the odds clearly favor a sell off of some kind (correction/crash?), these guys have been defying the odds for quite awhile now.

The charts are still useful of course, but the ability for them to be manipulated and held back from rolling over is truly an incredible feat they pulled off.  Last week produced 5 days of doji candles on the daily charts... something of a rarity in of itself... in my opinion.  While I don't know how many times that has happened in the past 100 years, I'd bet I could count the times with my fingers.

It's almost as if God was holding the market up, and not allowing it to sell off until after the election this coming week.  But wait... it was God!  Remember, Goldman Sachs is doing "God's work" (aka, robbing from the middle classed and poor to give to the rich and evil... where's Robin Hood when you need him?).

The market last week was enough to make both bulls and bears alike... "sick too death".  When is enough... "enough"?  There probably isn't any retail traders left in this market as it's clearly driven by computer bots trading against each other... with our money of course.

If it seems like I'm bitching or just rambling on... you're right, I am!  No one can make money in this kind of crappy market, except maybe the day traders... and only the really good one's at that.  This has too be the most hated rally ever on Wallstreet, as it's completely 100% FAKE!

No really earnings, No real job's, No real anything but lies!

Not that I really want a huge crash to happen, as that would hurt a lot of people.  I just want a market that can be fairly traded... both short and long.  A market that follows some type of reasonable charting patterns and actual "real" data (not made up lies)... which I'll likely never see in my lifetime, so I guess I'm just dreaming here.

Moving on...

It seems that Friday after the market closed there was a reported terrorist attack that was stopped.  How convenient of the terrorists to wait until market is ready to crash to try and attack us.  That's really nice of them to do... (ROFLMAO here)!  Yes folks, it's another "False Flag" that the gangsters are staging so they can blame the coming crash on it.  (By the way, I mentioned Yeman back in February of this year.  Maybe you should go re-watch the video's on it?)

They'll spin the truth as "the economy was recovering and this (insert false flag event here) really shocked the market... blah, blah, blah".  Come on folks, you guys (and gals) are much smarter then that.  You know the timing of false flags are almost always around major tops in the stock market.  Remember the BP Oil Disaster?  When did it happen?  Answer:  April 20th, 2010 What happen to the stock market shortly there after?  Can you say "Flash Crash Fat Fingers" 10 times quickly and not be "tongue tied"?  LOL

The market actually hit the final top on April 26th, with one quick stop sweep above key resistance to clear out all the shorts before the crash... but basically the Oil Disaster False Flag event was done when the market was peaking.  So what does that mean for next week?  I speculate that we'll have another stop sweep above the current overhead and resistance level and then another crash... but this time it won't be just a "Flash Crash".  I expect it to continue down to the DOW 8300 level by mid-late November, and then a rally back up to happen.

Thinking like a gangster here... I'd shock the market with just enough new stimulus (with the expected QE2 news data released by the Fed's after the FOMC meeting this Wednesday), that would give the market one final push up.  Then I'd stage a false flag event to blame the crash on.  (Of course I don't know what the market is expecting, but I heard $500 Billion to $3 Trillion.  So, give them something on the low end of that range to stage one more rally, but not too little that the coming train wreck would be blamed on the governments' lack of stimulus.  (Now if they give them something on the high end and blow out what the market expects, we can expect a move up to the DIA 118.16 FP to happen before and crash does... but I really don't expect that to happen).

After the market tanks for a few weeks I'd get together with the new Congress and Senate with some emergency bill (even more stimulus) that "has too" be pass through under fear of economic collapse (all planned years in advance of course).  But don't pass the bill until the downside target is hit, and then I'd announce to the media that the Republicans and the Democrats have put aside their differences and decided that another round of stimulus will now be given to the Wallstreet Gangsters (errr... the American public, my bad!) because of the disaster.

The Democrats can "save face" as they put through another stimulus package before the Republicans took back control of the house of congress (and maybe the senate too?).

The Republicans can "save face" and say that they would have stopped the reckless spending of the stimulus plans that the Democrats did over the last year or so, as they rejected more money when they got elected (in this weeks' coming election), but do to the emergency nature of the current situation that developed (because of the "false flag event"), they'll give the market (err... the economy) more money after all.

Yay!  We're all saved again!

Isn't politics fun?  LOL!  Of course I don't know what will happen, but that could be the plan?  It certainly matches up with a peak in the market like we currently have now.  After all... someone, or something, has too be blamed for the crash coming.  It just can't be technical analysis or elliottwave theory, as that stuff is just all worthless crap anyway... right?  It's fundamentals that makes the market move up and down... so says the bought and paid for mass media machine.

Ok, so where do we go next week?  I'm going to borrow this chart posted by Apple Al, and use it for speculation as it would line up with one more stop clearing sweep similar to the April 26th high... just before the real move down came.

Al's chart points to a move down on Monday, (which supports the over bought 60, 30, and 15 minute charts), and then one "last hurrah" move up to the double top area around 1215 spx as a wave 5, with Mondays' move down as a wave E in a larger wave 4 move that formed during most of last week.  While I'm not an expert on Elliottwave (who is really?), I think the chart lines up perfectly with what happen on the April high day on the 26th.

You have too think about this from the gangsters point of view.  There are still plenty of bears hanging on to their shorts last week, as the market just traded sideways and never broke the overhead resistance area.  This tells me that they must be shaken out before the real plunge begins.  You know the gangsters don't want to let these bears on the train to hell with them, as there are only so much cocaine and naked women available in the passenger cars... and of course they don't like to share.

So, they must get them off the train before the real move starts.  A quick short squeeze to a double top would probably just about do the trick I'd say.  While it's possible that the top is already in at the 1196 spx level from last Monday, I got a feeling that there's going to be one more fakeout move to the upside before this train really leaves the station.

Maybe it only makes it back up to the 1196 top, or maybe a little more?  I don't know for sure but that terrorist scare is speaking loudly to those who are listening.  An "Event" is coming, and the market won't like it.  When?  Days I'd say, not weeks.  Maybe after the FOMC meeting this Wednesday, or at the latest it could be push out to the G20 Meeting on November 11th.  I doubt it, as I think what the Fed's says this week will determine the future direction of the market (and the elections too of course).

But the charts can't take too much more of this propping up, as they are all ready to collapse hard very soon.  So how many fingers and toes does Bernanke have left to keep plugging the holes in this dam that's ready to burst?  I don't know, but if he tries to use the "Fat Finger" to plug a leak, he might just do too much damage to the crack and cause it to burst.

Ok, what about Monday you ask?

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYRlUCk7M8U)

I'd say we rollover in the morning and possibly stay down all day.  I say "possible" because the terrorist scare and the uncertainty of the elections could cause traders to cash in their longs on Monday and not do anymore buying until the FOMC news on Wednesday is released.  The short term charts are rolling over going into Monday and that should put some downward pressure on the market early on.

While I don't think it's going to tank on Monday, or break key support, but I can see early selling in the morning with the afternoon session being left in the "unknown" status as the PPT could come in a buy it back up (remember, the volume will likely be very light after the first couple of hours of the day), or they could just let it stay down and use that money for Wednesday.  Hard too say what the close will be, as Monday's have a long time reputation now of being "Bullish Monday's"... a name they got for that very reason, they usually are UP days.

So, if you do short on Monday, be careful after the first couple of hours as once that selling pressure is gone the government could step in an turn it all around by the close.  It's the day before the election too, so you know it's not going to crash.  We could see a 10 point down in the morning, but I wouldn't expect too much more then that... if we even get that much?

It's really going to be a wild ride after Wednesday, but I'm not expecting too much on Monday.  So just be patient as around 2:15 pm on Wednesday until the close at 4 pm on Friday... it's going to get exciting!  Another side note:  most FOMC days are bullish, and I've noticed that the first move is a shakeout move that quickly reverses and goes the other direction within minutes of the first move.  Most of the first moves have been down, followed by a rally until the end of the day.

So, while it's possible that the first (again... usually down) is a real move that won't reverse, I find it highly unlikely.  The reason is simple... the government doesn't want to be the blame for the coming correction/crash, so they will want one more push up from their statement released about QE2.  After they get their brief rally, and the bears get squeezed off the train to hell, they'll proceed with the "false flag" event a few days later to blame everything on.

One more thing, the day after the FOMC meeting I've noticed are usually a down day.  Just speculating here on everything, by using past experience to forecast the possible future direction.  If it happens as I laid out here, I'll be a hero... if not, then I'll eat some more mud I guess.

Best of luck to everyone...

Red

P.S.  Remember what this guy said about November the 14th...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V65rlYFJ0qo&feature=player_embedded)

Now look closely at the runaway train in the new movie called "Unstoppable" coming out this November 12th...

(to see on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JM-0Ywc7wNY)

Just a coincidence I'm sure...

P.S.S.  If you like this post, be sure to pass it around and bookmark it.  🙂

Controlled Sell Off

Red
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108

The market sold off early Wednesday, but retraced almost all of the move down by the close of the day.  It seemed too be a very controlled sell off as the volume wasn't really that heavy for a down day.  It followed the technicals fairly well all day.  While I thought it would rally up in the morning and sell off into the close, it didn't have the strength to start rallying until it sold off some more first.

(to watch video on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs63pR2qzJ4)

Finally, around midday, the market bottomed and the charts all pointed back up and proceeded to rally into the close.  I think it will continue up tomorrow morning until about midday and then rollover into the close.  The market is certainly showing signs of weakening as it put in a deeper histogram bar this time.

Last week it wouldn't have dropped as much before rallying back up, which means there isn't too much longer before a sell off begins.  They seem too be doing everything they can to hold it up until the elections next week.  I have no idea if the high is in or not, but it feels like it is.

Mainly because of the time remaining before the elections and the time of the month.  The last days of October the mutual funds should be selling to lock in profits before the elections.  They can't take a chance on what the outcome will be, so the safe move is to sell ahead of it.

But, the short term charts are pointing up into tomorrow, so I do believe we'll see another chance to get short before the week ends.  I think Friday could see some selling as the GDP will be released in the morning (could surprise?), along with it being the last day of the month for the mutual funds to close their books on the quarter, spells a "down day" on Friday.

Reasons for a down day on Friday:

  • The short term charts (60, 30, 15, etc...) will likely peak Thursday by midday and rollover into the close.
  • The mutual funds need to close out the quarter by the last trading day of October, which means they will likely take profits by selling some of their core holdings.
  • Thursday will be the last POMO day for the week, allowing Friday vulnerable to any selling pressure as there won't be as much money available to buy up the market.
  • The dollar seems too be breaking out now, and that should put pressure on the market.
  • The VIX seems too be breaking out now too, and that shows fear in the market is coming.

Now... if it were only that simple, we'd all be rich!  LOL.  You and I both know that they are going manipulate the market to where ever they want too this Friday.  While the evidence points to a down day, if they want to rally it they will.  So too be fair, here are the reasons for an up day on Friday:

  • There are Weekly options expiring this Friday, and they need to pin the market where they pay out the least amount of put holders as possible.
  • The government doesn't like Friday's to be down, because they want to give the false illusion to the public that everything is "ok" going into the weekend, so they will go out and stimulate the economy by spending money they don't have.
  • The elections are next week and the government (or at least the Democrats) want to hold up the market until it's over with and blame everything on the Republicans on the coming correction.

So, which will it be... a positive close on Friday or a sell off?  Only time will tell, but I'm leaning toward a sell off... especially if we rally back up tomorrow morning to 1185-1190 area by midday.  Of course we could roll over tomorrow at the open, if the initial claims and continuing claims numbers are viewed as negative for the market.

While I expect them to be better then expected, if they are too good then everyone will think that the Fed's might raise rates soon, and that they might not get the QE2 money that everyone is expecting.  So, we really want them to met estimates or disappoint for that one more move higher in the morning too happen.

If they beat by a lot, I'd expect selling to happen pretty quickly.  I'd like too see one more move higher, and then rollover into the close tomorrow and early Friday.  But, you don't always get what you want.  If we rollover at the open, then things could get ugly pretty quickly.

Best of luck to everyone,

Red

Weekend Update – More Flash Crashes!

Red
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79

Tuesday Update...

Not much to add, but tomorrow looks like it's going up in the morning at least, with a possible sell off into the close?  I say possible because the gangster have full control of the market right now, and will ignore the overbought short term charts if they want too.  I do expect the 60, 30, 15, etc to become overbought by midday tomorrow, which would indicate that they should rollover into the close and end the day lower... but without the necessary volume, and government manipulation, it might not happen?  Anyway, here's a video with my thoughts on it...

(watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbXSvE5zZ9g)

The link to David Wilcock is here:

http://stevebeckow.com/2010/10/24/david-wilcock-disclosure-the-event-and-chinas-october-surprise/

The link to Ben Fulford is here:

http://curezone.com/forums/fm.asp?i=1712809

Red

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Are Flash Crashes Now Becoming The Norm?

(To watch on Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEGZvj3lQUA)

The G20 meeting this weekend must have spooked the currency market as we had more flash crashes.  This post by ZeroHedge shows severals charts of the crashes.  So what does all this mean?  I wish I knew... but I don't.  But if I had to speculate, I'd say a big move is coming next week... and I don't think it's going to be an "upside" move.

While we could still go up, as the gangsters still have the printing press going full steam, the upside is very limit now.  All the leader stocks are at nose bleed levels now, and it's hard to push them up any higher without a pullback first.  We all know how they rotate from sector to sector, pumping each one to keep the Dow, Spx, etc... from collapsing.

They might keep up until the election, and the dump it hard.  However, at some point, gravity will take over and market will sell off hard.  All these flash crashes show you how vulnerable the market really is.  One surprise false flag event, or some other major default, would crash this market in a heartbeat!  So be on your toes, as when she falls... it will be fast and hard.

Looking at the charts, the market is clearly ready to rollover and drop quickly.  I think we'll see it happen next week, as smart traders will bail out before the elections.  Who wants to hold on any longs when the QE2 is most likely already priced into the market now.  That limits the upside, even if it passes as the market expects it too.  But what happens if it doesn't pass?

If I were a big time billionaire, and was already long the market from the 1040, (or 1010) lows, I'd be cashing in my chips this coming week, as missing out on a few points higher from more stimulus money is better then losing all my profit if the stimulus money doesn't show up.

While I'm sure most of the billionaires have insider information as to where the market is going after the election, so all you have to do is see what they are doing.  Since they are likely the "smart money", and are commonly referred to as the "big institutions", just look at these charts Cobra posted to find out the real truth.

Looking at the first chart, you can see that the institutional selling is at a very low point right now.  Notice that the chart looks eerily similar to the last few days of the April high... just before a huge fall?  The last few days have also showed a slight move up in the distribution.

This chart should speak loudly to you, as "they" are on the "inside" and know what is coming next.  Look at the accumulation levels too... does that look to you like they are buying heavily in anticipation of another big rally up?  It doesn't look that way to me, in fact it looks like the amount of buying is lower then the previous run up from the July 1010 low to the August 1130 high.

Remember this people have the inside knowledge, and "if" the market was going to be push up to our DIA 118.16 FP now... those buying levels would be much higher then they are.  Our DIA print isn't coming until next year I believe.  I see a sell off coming first, and then another ramp job into January-February of 2011.

Reinhardt posted this picture on his site a few days ago, and all though he's not telling you what it means, I have my own ideas to the message it's sending.  To me it means that the bottom will be around the date in the Wallstreet sign, and the top will be around the Legatus sign.

It should line up with the charts too, as a big sell off from now to mid-November, followed by a rally into late January could fulfill the downside FP and the upside FP too.  After that happens... well, who knows?  Either the market will rally up to Dow 38,000 (as Mahendra forecasts) with massive inflation (that will $20.00 for that Big Mac sir, and for only $5.00 more you can add a small fry with that).

Or... the Great Depression Two begins and the market crashes all year long with Dow 2000-3000 being the downside target area.  Which one will it be?  I don't know, but either one spells disaster for the average person.  I can't afford a loaf of bread that cost $10.00 anymore then the effects a crash like that would cause.  Can you imagine how many more people lose their jobs and become homeless?  Talk about a skyrocketing crime rate!

Both cases are extremely bad, and I wish neither of them would happen.  Maybe they won't?  I really don't know?  But if I were a gangster, I'd crash the market, create massive unemployment, start WW3 and kill off a large percentage of those unemployed.  And let's not forget to buy up every asset you can get your hands on, for pennies on the dollar.  It's basically just robbery... and you know that's probably what they plan too do.  But will they succeed?

Moving on...

What are the charts saying for next week?  The short term charts put in a bull flag on Friday, which means a move up should happen on Monday morning.  But will it?  If it does, I don't think it will go very far, as the weekly put in a reversal candle pattern, and so did the daily chart.

I really can't see this market ending next week up, as it's up against heavy overhead resistance too.  I won't say it's impossible, as we bears know all too well how this market can stay overbought longer then anyone ever expected it too.  The manipulation in the market is at extremely levels now, and with the election less then 2 weeks away, I wouldn't put anything past the gangsters.

If they really want it higher, they will make it happen.  But, I think they are planning for a sell off, as those 2 charts from Cobra's blog show you their really intentions... not what B.S. is being spewed out of their mouths by the bought and paid for media outlets.

With that said, I do believe we will see some selling next week.  How much is unknown, but all the flash crashes we've been having lately might be early warnings of what's too come.  Just keep on the look out for some false flag event to be blamed on the crash, should it be a "crash"... and not just a correction?  It's impossible to know what they have planned of course, but at least a pullback is highly likely next week.  Anything more then that is just a gift for the bears.

Good luck everyone...

Red

The Bulls Never Die!

Red
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Up in the morning, down hard midday, and back up into the close!  Wow, what a wild day it was...

(to watch on youtube, go to: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kyj-SN4g7fU)

The market didn't play out exactly as I expected it to, but then again... it rarely does!  I expected it to roll over in the morning and sell off most of the day, and then rally back some on Friday... but it fooled me.  I guess "overbought" isn't the same as "extremely overbought", so the market rallied up in the morning hard... really stretching all the short term charts into very overbought territory.

Then about midday they finally rolled over and sold off fairly quick.  They went down to almost the 117.20 spy FP level, and then reversed back up into the close.  At the end of the day, all the short term charts started to turn back up from their oversold conditions.

This means tomorrow is very likely to rally up in the morning, as the charts are now supporting a move up, and they have another POMO day tomorrow too.  Plus it's a Friday and an option expiration day too.  I believe it's the weekly's expiring this time.

That means they should rally up to pin the spy at a level that they have too pay out the least amount of option holders.  It's usually the "puts" that get squeezed hard on opx day, but not always.  Sometimes they push it down so they don't have too pay out the call holders.

However, tomorrow could go either way?  In the latest Mr. Topstep video, his guest speaker George Cavaligos quoted that "open interest has dropped as the market has rallied the last 2 days", which means that it doesn't need to be propped up as the market makers don't have to worry about pinning the levels because there aren't to many option holders left to pay out on.

This means that they could just allow the charts to play out naturally tomorrow when they finally get overbought around midday as the POMO money will be used up by then, as well as the charts themselves will have worked themselves into overbought territory again.

That doesn't mean that they will let them drop into the close of course, it only means that they don't have any real reason to manipulate the market higher (or hold at the high) because they aren't at risk of losing any money on the small amount of puts left in the market.

But, the government doesn't usually like to let the market drop on Friday as they want people to go out and spend money over the weekend... which a huge sell off on any Friday would make people think twice about spending money on their time off from work.  It's a game the gangsters play to trick the public into thinking that everything is OK (keep your eye on the carrot here in my right hand, while I pick your pocket with my left hand).

Anyway, I'm looking for a move up in the morning as the charts are now pointing back up again.  About noon or so, I'd estimate that they will get very overbought again, are could rollover into the close.  I say "could", because there won't be any more POMO money left to support the market the rest of the day, and there won't be any reason for the market makers to hold it up either.

So, it's free to fall simply based on the charts being overbought again.  But will it?  I don't know?  We'll have too wait and see I guess.  However, if it goes up all day and gets really overbought again, it could set Monday up as a big down day.  Not that I'm calling for one, or believe it will happen, as most Monday's are "Bullish Monday's"... but the charts could be aligned that way by the close tomorrow.

For now though, let's just wait and see.  I'm calling for up in the morning, and it stalling around midday.  At that point it could be held there until the close, or roll back down and sell off in it... probably closing lower then the opening level if the momentum really kicks in.

Red

George

The Bears Are Back!

Red
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The Bears Are Back!

Wednesday update... we came close enough to the 118.55 SPY FP I believe, and should roll over tomorrow.  I made a mistake in yesterday's video about the Initial Claims and Continuing Claims numbers, as they aren't released until tomorrow morning.  Since we have already went up and got the short term charts all oversold, I now expect the numbers to disappoint and be blamed for the selloff.

(to watch on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiFxWE96Oho)

The charts say we roll over tomorrow, with or without the claims numbers... but the media will likely blame it on them, as they have too report something I guess?  Anyway, I'm looking for selling in the morning at least.  How deep it goes will be based on the data released.  If they aren't too bad, then we shouldn't fall too far.  We got many downside FP's toward the last hour of the day, and most are in the upper 116 level on the spy.  I do think we will hit them tomorrow.  As for Friday... I don't yet?

Good luck everyone...

Red

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And they look pretty hungry to me...  (Is this really an Easter Bunny, or a Bull hiding in a bunny costume?)

Finally, the market had a nice sell off... but will it continue?  Stay tuned for next weeks episode of "As The World Turns"... Ugggh, sorry!  I got side tracked on that last sentence.  Sometimes my mind just takes me off on another trail.  LOL.

So, to finish the last sentence in my video... "under normal circumstances, I'm looking for a pause day tomorrow".  But, (and there's always a "but" it seems... wonder why?), since the Fed's are so hell bent on stopping the market from a natural sell off, I'd say we are going to rally tomorrow on better then expected Initial Claims and Continuing Claims numbers, as well as the Fed's Beige Book report.

(to watch on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTHQOfVX2fs)

Too me, it's just going to provide another spot to get short.  Look for the rally (if it happens?) to start around 10 am and end by about Noon (or sooner?).  At that point I'd expect the 5, 10, and 15 minute charts to be overbought.  But, the 30 and 60 will take a few days I believe.

Now, it's going to be more of a "gut feeling" about going short about that Noon time period, as we need to see how the market is acting.  If it's trading mostly sideways, with only a small rally, then we will likely fall into the close and/or Thursday as well.

But if it moves up hard and fast, going higher then anyone expects, then the shorts are getting squeezed badly and we might have too wait until Thursday for the 30 and 60 minute charts to get really overbought again.  That might take the market up to that 118.55 spy FP we got today?

I don't know for sure of course, but those intraday print are usually hit within 1-3 days.  It's going to be more on just a feel for the market tomorrow, as predicting it solely based on the charts is not working in a heavily manipulated market... like the one we live in!

Just remember, sideways trading during the POMO time period equals a "bear flag", and the market should fall in the afternoon, when the short term charts reset themselves and get top heavy again.

But, a sharp move up during the morning session could set up the market for a continued move up on Thursday too... which would allow it to reach that 118.55 spy FP, should they plan on hitting it this week?  Maybe it is meant for another time period?  Hard too say at this point.

Just hang out on the blog and read the comments as usual, and I'll let you know my thoughts when the market gives me some clues.  For now, I'd expect a flat to up day tomorrow.  But more selling is coming, so don't buy into any bullish ideas that this "one day" correction reset the larger time frame charts, and we are going to rally up to new highs now... they are all still very overbought!

Red

Weekend Update, Earnings Earnings Earnings

Red
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120

Monday Update... another Flash Crash?

(or watch video on Youtube here:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NE6urtuguUg)

Yes folks we had another flash crash at 4:15pm EST that put the SPY at 106.46... a 12 point drop (about 120 on the SPX)!  All orders were canceled and I'm sure it will be blamed on another "fat finger" (how many fat fingers does this guy have anyway?).  LOL.

Regardless of the print, Apple sold off about 20 points in afterhours from have a disappointing future outlook, and not beating the "whisper number".  So, unless the banks really blow out earnings tomorrow, I'd expect the market to sell off some.  How low is unknown of course, but as long as the companies reporting do a better job then Apple did, then maybe a correction down to support at 1160-1165 area would be my best guess at the first downside target.

If that breaks, then the 1140 level should give some good support.  Of course all of these support levels will be blown through hard if the banks really disappoint.  Let's assume they borrowed Ben's eraser, and fudge their numbers properly, which as long as they did the market isn't likely to revisit that flash crash level tomorrow (crossing fingers here, hoping it does).

Red

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Will Next Weeks' Earnings Cause The Market To Sell Off?

I think so, as I believe the market has been "buying the rumor" and will now "sell the news".  With big names like Apple, IBM, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, JPM, and several more, then odds of all of them beating estimates huge is very slim.  The market has run up hard and fast over the last several weeks, and is now at nose bleed territory.

So have many of the stocks coming out with earnings next week.  If any of them disappoint, or even just "meet" estimates, that's not going to push the market any higher.  They all need to just completely blow out estimates, and give a stellar outlook for future earnings.  I just don't think that's going to happen.

It would be different if the market had been selling off for the last 3 weeks, as then they would just need an excuse to rally, and just meeting estimates would be a good enough reason to do so.  But since the market has already rallied, it now going to need a whole lot more... if it wants to continue higher.

I think the top is already in on this market, and next week we'll see some selling.  I think that the trendline that has been supporting this rally since it started will break on Monday after the bell or Tuesday morning.  From there, it's down hill for a few days (at least).

There are other reasons to expect a sell off too... the dollar!  It seems to have bottomed or will bottom in one more day... probably Monday.  It's almost at a serious level of support, that will be a double bottom from months ago.  The same thing is happening in reverse on the Euro, as it's also at a major resistance level.

Since the market trades the opposite of the dollar, any rally in the dollar and the market will sell off.  This will cause gold to sell off too.  The earnings coming out this week will just be an excuse to sell, as the dollar will be the real reason the market will be going down.

Of course any of the companies that disappoint will help increase the selling.  Apple and IBM are already at extremely high levels, and even if they come out with great earnings, their upside is very limited.  The banks could save the market if they all beat estimates, as they did sell off some already... meaning that they could bounce if their earnings are great.

But, if they also disappoint... look out below!  Now I don't think they will, as we all know how good they lie, but they are under a lot of pressure right now as this foreclosure issue isn't going away soon.  More and more people will default, and these banks are going to take the heat for it.  Whether or not they actually lose money from it is unknown?  Remember, they pushed off most of that toxic debt to the America people.  But not all... they will still suffer as they have plenty of freshly defaulting loans on their books, and we ain't buying that crap from them!

The banks led this rally up, and they will lead it back down.  While we will likely have a choppy week coming up, as wild swings occur from the various companies beating and not beating estimates, I still see the week closing lower.  Google might have beat estimates on Friday, but look at how it affected the market... I didn't see much upside, did you?

That tells me that even if every company beat estimates next week, the overall upside in the market is very limited.  But, what are the odds of every company beating estimates, and the dollar breaking down lower through major support?  Slim is the answer...

While the gangsters in Washington can continue to print money at light speed, they can't manipulate the larger time frame charts that easily.  While they can strecth out the charts to extended levels, at some point the charts will react as they should... meaning that "They will work again"!

Yes, the government can only do so much plugging of the dam... but eventually the pressure is too great and the dam will burst.  We are at that level now.  The dollar is not likely to breakdown through the double bottom support, and nor is the Euro likely to breakout over the resistances above.  The charts say a breakdown in the market is coming next week, and I believe the gangsters can't succeed in manipulating them to a point that they don't work at this point.

Too many events are lining up together, that it's just to hard too control everything.  The dollar, euro, gold, and all the major players coming out with earnings next week too... it's going to breakdown, I can't find any way to stop it at this point.

Ok, let's throw the charts away for a moment and look at the political agenda that's out there.  The election is just a couple weeks away now, and the Republicans are expected to take back enough seats to remove the Democrats from having full control in congress and senate.  What does that mean?

Well normally the market likes to have a stalemate in both houses as no big changes ever happen because both parties are always arguing over the details of each bill.  But if one party has control then they can push through new bills that they approve fairly easily, and that worries the market as some of those bills can effect their ability to steal money from the taxpayers (errr... I mean "make an honest profit").

Right now they gangsters have been loving the free money the Democrats have giving too them, but they are worried that the Republicans might change all that.  So it's a tough call for the market, as they would like to see the Republicans win enough seats to produce an equal number of both parties in both houses, which should make the market feel more at easy... and therefore allow a continued move higher.

But, it would also likely cut off their free money supply that the Democrats have been giving them.  So do that mean that the market wants the Democrats to remain in control?  Probably not, as the continued printing of money will also push the dollar down to a level that the market will view as "Bad" for the health of the economy.  They know that the Democrats will continue to pump more money into the market, with some new Quantitative Easing program... but it's not being working so far, and the market knows that.

It really put the market in a very confused state of mind.  Which party do they want to win?  I can't answer that of course, but at this point I don't think it's going to really matter.  I think the market will sell off regardless of which party wins, and the media will spin the news to reflect it that way.

Also, there is more "meetings" taking place too.  And when they involve a list of people that their combined wealth is 30 Trillion Dollars...  you better listen!  I'm talking about the G20 meeting on November 11th-12th, and the 112 members that will be there.  I can assure you that they will be making changes that will affect the market.  So what will they be?  Will we sell off into the meeting, or after the meeting?

Well, base on the charts, we should be selling off into the meeting.  After the meeting they will likely pull another rabbit out of a hat, and rally the market.  What will it be?  Another QE program?  I don't know, but that meeting is just as important as the Bilderberg meeting and Legatus Pilgrimages were.

After all, it's probably made up of the same members.  Here's an interesting link to it on Seeker401's site (Follow the Money).  I like his comments at the end, and agree... we are overdue for another false flag event.  It's sad but true that these gangsters will have staged probably every major disaster/event in the last hundred years.  Who knows which ones were staged and which one's weren't?

However, even though the charts alone say that the market should crash over the next few weeks, that not enough for the gangsters.  They will likely use this large move down to create fear with another disaster.  Of course they will profit from it too, but they thrive on fear and evil too, so using this to their advantage will be their plan.

Just look for Obama to be sitting in another classroom of kids while a staff member comes and whispers into his ear that the plan was successful and the disaster has started... just like it happened with Bush and 911.  Obama will smile and continue chatting with the kids... just like Bush did.  Wax on... Wax off... Wax on... Wax off!

Ben Fulford reported that Japan recently located 5 of 6 atomic bombs that North Korea smuggled into their country last week.  Will the remaining bomb be used to start WW3?  Or just to cause a stock market crash?  Will it be set off in Japan or America?  Who really smuggled the bombs into Japan... North Korea of the Federal Reverse Nazi Gangster Gang?  You know who I suspect is really behind this...

By the way, please bookmark and forward this post around to everyone you can.  We need the people to wake up and realize what might happen in the next few weeks.  These false flag events that the gangsters create are a horrible thing, and really make my blood boil just knowing that I don't have the power to stop them!  I would if I could, but the only power I have is this blog and these constant posts I make about them.  So please spread the word if you care as much about the human race as I do.

Moving on...

Looking over a Reinhardt's site I see that he posted a nice picture with the words "Crash of 2008" in it.  The link above takes you to another page with a picture of what appears too be dear running.  More likely he meant "bulls running", but maybe he didn't want too be to obvious?  What should stand out to you is the date listed below that picture... "October 24th, 2010".

Now I'm not going to say that's the "crash date" or anything like that.  I'll only say that the daily and weekly chart should roll over this week... and since that date is this coming Sunday, it might simply imply a "starting point" for coming crash.  I will say that if the market can't breakout to new highs this week, (and I don't believe it will), the following week could be very ugly.

Just put all the pieces together folks... a dollar almost at a double bottom level of major support, the euro at a heavy resistance level, major earnings reports out this week with the news already priced in, the November elections just weeks away with the Republicans favored, a G20 meeting just shortly after the election, one missing atomic bomb in Japan, and let's not forget the ritual side of the market (from the video I posted on last weekend) that November 14th is 777 days from the September 29th, 2008 one day Dow loss of 777 points.

What more I can I say?

Red

Help, I’m Drowning!

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Help, I’m Drowning!

Thursday Update...

The bears were fed today, but make it last as Friday will likely rally up... at least in the morning session.  Google popped up 50 points afterhours, should give the market an early morning lift.  But, by the afternoon session we could see the short term charts get over bought and some selling into the close is possible.  I'm not calling for anything big, but overall I'd just say that the close could be just slightly positive or flat, as I expect some of the early morning gain to disappear by the afternoon, and into the close.

Next week is still unknown, but if they are going to fill the DIA 118.16 print, they've got a good opportunity next week with all the earnings coming out.  Maybe we will hit it within the next week or two?  Maybe... just maybe?  ...but after that, all hell is going to break lose!

Red

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The poor bears are are almost extinct now...

Up Up and Away!  Dow 20,000 by Friday... and the cost of a loaf of bread = $20.00!  The government gangsters should be brought up on criminal charges and publicly hung.  The Fed's make the Mafia look like Mother Theresa.  They are the most evil and corrupt group of gangsters in the world.

By constantly crushing the dollar, day in and day out, it's now worth 10% less then it was just 3 months ago.  It's nothing short of a 10% tax being put on the American consumer.  It's robbery, and no one seems to be able to stop them.  While I do believe that there are many "white hats" (good guys) secretly arresting these thugs, it's not being done fast enough.

At the rate we are going, these gangsters will succeed in producing the largest crash ever in the history of the stock market.  If we continue to push up to the FP of DIA 118.16 (which I believe we will), then the fall that will come after it will completely wipe out millions of peoples' life savings, and asset values.

If you think the housing market has bottomed now, just wait until 2011-2012 as the Dow likely be cut in half by then.  In fact, I think they could reach that upside FP by election day, and then start crashing week after week following it.  I know a lot of bears are getting hurt right now, and I'm not giving advise.

However, I'm not getting heavily short until that print is hit.  While we could still dip down a little tomorrow, and I do believe we will... it will likely be just a buying opportunity for the continued ramp toward our upside target.  How low, I don't know?  But tomorrow is looking like it should rise in the morning and sell off in the afternoon closing down for the day.

One more thing... here's a video that was sent to me, and I think it's worth everyone watching it.  While I don't know if November the 14th will be the big crash date or not, I do know that the Illuminati are big on rituals, so he could be right?

Certainly with all the POMO dates on the schedule between now and the election, they will likely be able to go up and fill the 118.16 print.  After that... it's a dozen or more downside prints that will be anxiously waiting for their turn to be filled.  And they aren't even close to the upside print!

In fact the Dow 8300 FP would then be 2500 points down from the upside print!  Now that's one huge crash!  So, just hold on to some cash gang, and the trout will be swimming up stream soon, and the river will be bone dry!  The bear feast will be on once again!

Good eating everyone...

Red

Weekend Update – Same As It Ever Was!

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Monday Update...

In the video, I say that Wednesday is another POMO day, but that's not a guarantee... only a guess.  They are releasing their schedule on this coming Wednesday, but I don't know for sure that it will also be a POMO day too.  However, many times the Wednesday of the opx week will be the high for the week, and then the next two days are usually flat.

Not always of course, but I've noticed that most traders have closed out their options by Wednesday and the rest of the week just chops around until the close on Friday.  They will of course pin the SPY at a level that will benefit them the most.  The question is... will it benefit them to sell it off because there are too many calls, or push it up (or hold flat), as there are too many puts.

In the past, there has been too many puts, so they close it up.  Will this time be different?

Red

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Some things never change, as the government will always be evil and full of crooks and gangsters...

So what made me think the charts would be followed this time?  Maybe because they were working just find up until last week.  Everything in the charts last week pointed to a 50-100 point sell off in the market, yet the gangsters defied gravity and manipulated the market higher once again.

No one can tell me that last week was something you could foresee and forecast from reading the charts, as every indicator pointed to it rolling over.  This makes it extremely difficult to gamble in the market, as the gangsters can see what you have in your hand.

Sounds unfair, sounds crooked, sounds evil, sounds hard too beat... all true, but what can you do about it?  Not play the game is the only answer.  At least for us option players, as going long with options will not make you money very often.  The lower vix as the market rises will suck premium out the value of your options faster then Lindsay Lohan can get high!

So, you either have to buy the etf's outright (which is a whole lot of money, and out of most peoples' reach), buy a call spread (works, but how do you know what the upside target is for the call you are selling), sell a put spread to capture the high volatility priced into the option (kinda of insane, as once you finally decide to place this trade... the market crashes!), or just sit on the sidelines in cash (which isn't too bad really, as you've only lost about 10% in buying power in the decline dollar in the last several month... which is better then losing your whole position on another B.S. rally that wipes out your puts completely).

Maybe that's why the retail trader just took his money out of the market and isn't doing any investing?  No one believes anything the government says, so putting your cash under your mattress seems too be back in style now.  I can't say I blame them, as I'm certainly no lover of the government either.  I still think we should bring back public hanging, like in the old western days.  Let's string them up from a tall tree and broadcast it live on FOX News (their favorite controlled media outlet).

Well, enough ranting and raving, let's try to figure out what's coming next week (and that's a Big "TRY", as no ones really knows what kind of cards they'll be pulling out from the bottom of the deck next week).

Looking at the charts (which really don't matter anymore, but humor me), the weekly has finally started to look ready to roll over some.  It's in the high 80's on the Stoc's and almost has a bearish touch on the moving averages.  While I don't expect it to just roll straight over and head back down, I do expect a dip to happen, and then some choppy action until the end of the month.

Why?  Because the of election on November 2nd... plain and simple.  I've given up on a crash coming before the election, and will simply say that I expect the gangsters to continue pumping money into the market all month long, keeping it from crashing.

While next week could sell off, I ready doubt it as it's another opx week.  I've noticed that the market tends to sell off the week after opx, but rarely the week of opx.  Since we have another POMO day on Wednesday, October 13th, I'd expect a rally up on that day.

So, that means we could go down some on Monday, and possibly more on Tuesday... only to be bought back up on Wednesday.  In other words... very choppy, just churning sideways in a range until the opx is over.  Then a move down the following week could happen, and should happen... but will it?

Here's the thing that's been bugging me for months now... that dam upside FP of DIA 118.16!  You know the bulls aren't going to stop here, just shy of the 11,000 mark... and the FP is about 11,800 on the Dow which isn't too much higher from where we are now.  This leaves them about 4 weeks to get to it before the elections.

Remember, most analysts are expecting the Republicans to take back control of the house and senate, which means they will put an immediate stop the money machine.  That means a big sell off (crash) should happen as the bulls won't have anymore crack to snort (maybe they can get some from Lindsay? ... sorry, I had to go there! LOL).

Now that doesn't mean that they won't eventually start printing money again, as both Republicans and Democrats are afterall... still Politicians, and once the market starts crashing they will cave in and bail it out just like the current gangsters are doing.

But, we could see our downside FP of Dow 8300 play out... if they stop the money tree for awhile?  But in the meantime, that upside print is still bugging me, and until it gets filled I just don't see any big sell off sticking.  Next week isn't showing me any clear direction, and the week after isn't either.

I only expect it to be the week the market corrects, because it's common to see the week after opx as the "down week", as it's happened so many times in the past.  Of course there's no guarantee on that, as the only guarantee I can give you is that the government is out to steal your last dime and will succeed if you play their game too long.

I wish I had a crystal ball, so I could tell you where the market is going, but I don't.  Actually, I don't need a crystal ball... I just need someone to plant a "bug" in Ben Bernankes' office, so we can here what all the gangsters are planning to do.  Anyone out there want to volunteer?  I didn't think so 🙁

Well, I can't really think of anything else to say?  Not much going on right now.  Hey!  What a perfect time for a surprise crash!  Nah, I had that dream last week...  Wishful thinking again!

Red

More Manipulation

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When will it ever stop?  When Bernanke, Geithner and Obama are kicked out of office I guess?

You know, when I said on Monday that I expected Tuesday and Wednesday to go up because of the POMO money, I never expected such a strong rally.  The government continues to manipulate this market making charting about useless sometimes.

At the end of the day Monday we had a bear flag form, which usually plays out... but not with POMO money the next day.  So now that the money is gone, and Thursday and Friday are left to stand on their own... without government interference, will the market fall?

I just don't know at this point?  They managed to reset most of the shorter term charts to a bullish alignment.  Only the longer term charts are still bearish.  But, with the government controlling the data released this Friday, I just don't know what to expect?  Do they plan to surprise everyone and release numbers that will cause the market to tank, or will they push it up or sideways for another week?

As much as I'd like to stay that it's going to tank on Friday, deep down I know that "they" have the ability to keep it up for a long as they want too.  It seems they have an unlimited supply of Viagra, and nothing is going to stop them from continuing to push it up higher.

It really gets too me when so many traders are losing money on what should be a "simple trade", that is manipulated by the gangsters at the Federal Reserve to steal their money.  There is just NO logical reasoning for the rally we had yesterday and today.  It's 100% manipulation!

So just how do you play it?  You can't go long at this point, as I truly believe this rally is now 99% done... and who's crazy enough to try and play that last 1%?  When this thing finally rolls over, it's going to wipe out a months' worth of gains in one or two days... just like the flash crash did!

I don't know what else to say other then to expect some "event" to happen soon, which will be blamed for the coming crash.  I don't know "when", as they seem to be able to push a string up hill successfully... a feat that I've never seen done.  But, they are in the driver's seat right now, and it's going to crash when they are ready.

Maybe it will start this Friday as I expected, with the non-farm payroll report (or something else?), or maybe they push it out to next week, but everything tells me it's coming this month.  Those larger time frame charts, like the weekly and daily, are much harder to reset then the 60, 30, 15, 10, and 5 minute charts.

Could they do it?  Yeah, they could I guess... after all, Goldman Sachs is doing "God's Work".  So printing more monopoly money, and manipulating the market for another week, month, year, or forever is totally possible with God on your side.

Sorry gang, I'm just working off some steam writing tonight.  I'm just sick of this manipulation.  I just want to have all the gangsters lined up and shot, as they are destroying America!  Every dollar I have in my pocket is now worth about 50% less then it was just 3-5 years ago.

You can't find any combo meal at McDonald's, Burger King, Wendy's, etc... for $5 bucks or less anymore.  It's about $8-$10 dollars for anything worth buying.  It's all because of the government banksters/gangsters manipulating the dollar down.

On top of that, my electric company just increased the electric bill 12%!  My bill was $360.00 last month, and now they are raising it another 12% on top that!  It was only about $250.00 as little as 3 years ago... man that ticks me off!  I just need a place to vent out my frustrations, so this blog is about the only place I can do it.

Beating my head on the wall hurts too much, so I'll leave that to the younger and dumber males out there.  I'll just sit back and enjoy this cheap beer, and let my finger type out my anger about life right now.  Besides, it's a lot less painful then beating on something... LOL

Ok, back to the markets...

The weekly, daily and 60 minute charts are ready to roll over, but the 30 and 15 minute chart are ready to go up... which would fulfill the bull flag left on the charts today.  That means another push up in the morning from those shorter time frame charts would be attempted.

But, the longer term charts, which are more powerful, should put enough downward pressure to stop an large move up... especially since we don't have anymore POMO money tomorrow.  Now, once the 30 and 15 go positive and get overbought (which should be the first half of the day) the rest of the day could have some selling?  I say "could", because the gangsters can work off the charts if they want too?

I just don't know what they have planned?  If they have this Friday planned as the start of the crash, then it will certainly surprise about every bear out there.  I have too admit that even I'm starting to believe that it will never come, as the manipulation is just too great to over come.

It seems that no about of negative news, negative divergence, overbought charts, extremely bullish sentiment, or (insert whatever here) will bring this market down.  It's a zombie bull... somebody shoot it in the head!

That's enough rambling gang, good luck to everyone...

Red

Weekend Update – The Recession Is Officailly Over

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Weekend Update – The Recession Is Officailly Over

Midday Tuesday Update...

We only had 162 million shares traded on the spy Monday, and usually you will see over 200 million on down days... which means that this move down was more then likely just a technical correction as opposed to some real selling.

In other words, the big institutions haven't started to dump the market yet. Maybe they are waiting until Wednesday, when the last POMO money going into the market?  But after Wednesday, with no more POMO money until October 13th, and the non-farm payroll report out on Friday... I highly doubt the market can stay up this high.

I can see some 200-300 point down days coming late this week and possibly into early next week. For you non-option players, where time isn't against your side, hang tight as I believe Friday will be bloody!

Red

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Now The Depression Begins...

Even though we didn't get the sell off I was looking for last week, the market never went anywhere but sideways.  It seems like the small injection of $30 Billion just delayed the selling for a few more weeks, as it certainly didn't produce another leg up in the market.

The Legatus Pilgrimage ended on September the 20th, and Bernanke states that no QE2 will be implemented, but that they will do whatever is needed to the support the banksters (errr.... the public).  So what really happened?  As Reinhardt pointed out on his site "a $30B rally is probably not a $800+B rally".

I think the $30 Billion is just about gone now, and the sell off will begin next week as a lack of stimulus money means NO buyers... and that means a sell off will follow.  While it's still possible that they will rally up on Monday, I think the high will be put in for the week on that day.

After this triangle pattern breaks up (it could break down, but Monday's are usually bullish), it will quickly make the short term charts overbought, and ready to rollover on Tuesday (or Wednesday at the latest).  The fact that the banksters could only raise $30 Billion, instead of $800 Billion like they did the previous rally, tells me that their power and influence is weakening.

Zero Hedge has an interesting article that states that Goldman Sachs will be asking for $500 Billion in a new QE2 bailout on November the 2-3rd.  If it fails, then certainly the market will tank hard from it.  I do think it will fail, and and the market will simply react as written in the charts... which is that it's overbought now, and ready for a serious correction down to happen.

The "failure" of the passing of this QE2 bill, will simply be the blame for the correction that follows.  It should be quick and deep, lasting 1-2 weeks of heavy selling.  The bottom should be at Dow 8300, our FP from many weeks back.  That could match up with the November 15th election, and "if" the Republicans gain back control at same time all of our FP's are hit, then a rally will happen from it.

So, will the market hit that low on election day?  I don't know of course, but I do believe the charts would align up perfectly of that target being printed in mid-November.  That's about 6 weeks from now, and of course we would have short term bounces between now and then... but I think a person would have very high odds of success by simply staying short over the next 2 months with the downside target already known, allowing them a really nice profit should it all play out as expected.

No one knows for sure of course, but everything I see now is pointing to a move down to that print over the next couple of months.  Playing the stock market is nothing more then gambling, with the added benefit of being able to increase ones' odd's of winning by piecing together technical analysis, fib's, elliottwave, politics, and just good old fashion "gut" feelings... and of course manipulation, corruption, lying, stealing, and cheating by the gangsters that run WallStreet.

It's harder to do that in Vegas, as I don't know any casino you can go to that only uses one deck of cards in BlackJack... hence counting cards now is a lot tougher with 4,5, or 6 decks mixed together.  Can it still be done?  Of course, but your odd's of winning are still a lot lower then what they would be by applying the same knowledge in the stock market instead.

But back to the market...

I think that taking a short position now, or anywhere last week, and holding until the elections should produce a very nice profit.  While trying to catch the exact high to get short is very hard too do, and mainly for short term swing traders.  The intermediate swing trader might be wise to start positioning themselves short for the coming 6 week down move.

This is of course just what I see in the charts, and what I sense with all the other pieces of the puzzle that I've tried to put together.  Will it happen?  I don't know?  I just know that the odd's are very high of the sell starting early next week, and lasting until the elections, with a few bounces along the way... to shake out the weak hands of course.

So in the end, we must simply fold our hand, lay down what we got, or take another card.  I'm a risk taker, so I'll take another card.  There's bound too be a BlackJack coming my way soon!

Best of luck to us all...

Red

Saved Once Again

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Saved Once Again

The Bulls were rescued once again...

Doesn't this look like the PPT stepping in and saving the market from breaking the trendline today?  It certainly looked that way too me, as even with the heavy volume the market couldn't close below that rising support line from the 1040 low.

Very frustrating to say the least.  This leaves tomorrow open for the market to rally up again.  Maybe it just re-tests the high from today, or maybe it pushes up past it and makes a new high?  I see bullish counts and bearish counts, so I just don't know what's going to happen tomorrow?

It's opx for the weekly, as today was opx for the quarterly's, and they tend to want to pin the market at a certain level so the options will expire worthless.  But what level is that?  Are there too many shorts or longs in the market now?  I just don't know?

There is also new money coming in tomorrow, as it's the first day of the quarter (and the month)... but again, how much?  Will it cause a rally, or just a sideways choppy day... or will there not be enough money to hold the market up, and she breaks the trendline support and falls hard all day long?

I'm at a lost for words here, because I don't know which way the market is going tomorrow... not even a clue.  I give it 50/50 odds here.  A break of that support line, and down we go... and hard too.  Failure to break it though, and the rally can continue into next week.

Maybe we really are going to go straight up to the DIA 118.16 FP, without much more then a one day wonder down day?  All this obvious manipulation sometimes makes me want to just throw the charts away and ride the bull until it finally dies.  Of course it will be a quick death, as the bears attack fast.  Problem is, there's not enough bears to kill the bulls right now.

Well, I'm just rambling right now.  I'm disappointed today, and don't know about tomorrow.  So I'll close, and wish everyone good luck...

Red

P.S. Go Bears! 😉

Countdown To The Crash!

Red
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Wednesday Update...

(view on youtube, go here:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sTBQtx4-9fA)

Red
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Is it really going to Crash?

I don't know, but it certainly has all the signs of a large sell off coming.  Maybe not a crash, but a big move is on its' way I believe.  I see this Thursday and Friday as big sell off days... maybe even going down to that 105.39 spy fake print (FP)?  Who knows?  Regardless of how far it goes down, tomorrow might be the best opportunity to get short in quite awhile.

This has all the similarities of the first week of August, and you can see what happened after the week ended... it was ugly.  I think that's the kind of move we are going to get this Thursday and Friday.  I just can't see an explosive move up yet.  The daily is just too tired, and needs to sell off some first.  Maybe it can rally back after a pullback, but for now I see a big move down coming.

Also, we keep getting new FP's, that show some big moves to the downside.  These prints will be filled, and based on the amount of them I have now, I think it's coming very soon now.  The writing is on the wall now, but the timing is still unknown.

However, the charts are pointing to the daily and 60 minute charts rolling over by this Friday.  Also, the Fed's POMO money will be done by Thursday, along with the portfolio managers spending their last dollar too, as the quarter ends on Thursday.  So, putting all these pieces together you have a very high chance of a big move down coming by Friday.

Anyway, I'll keep this post short and ended it here.  Beside, I've said it all in the video.  My thoughts are that tomorrow will be the best opportunity to get short before a big fall.  Good luck to everyone...

Red

Weekend Update – Another Bear Squeeze

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Monday update...

Another FP showed up that Jim Hobson caught (thanks Jim).  It's of the Russell 1000, (RIFIN) and shows a downside target of 439.63 on the daily chart.  More and more signs are telling us that something wicked is coming this way soon.

Red

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Just when you think the bears are going to win... they dropped the ball again!

Well, what can you say... they didn't call them the "Bad News Bears" for nothing.  While they lose most of time, occasionally they'll win one.  I guess I've always liked the "underdog", and so I rout for the bears all of the time.  But, in this game of baseball (which is just like the stock market)... you're going lose a lot more then you win.

So the bears took another beating on Friday, which took me by surprise I must admit.  While I was expecting an UP day, I was only expecting a move to 1130-1135 spx, not a 20 point rally to happen.  But, I wasn't in any short positions on Friday, so I wasn't hurt by the move up.  I only hope my fellow bears weren't hurt either.

As for next week, what do I see?  Certainly the charts are now mixed with both bullish and bearish counts.  What I'd like to see is a gap up on Monday, and then a sell off to follow.  And, it's quite possible that we'll get one as there are overhead stops above 1150 that I'm sure they've love to take out before plunging the market.

There is an opening price of 115.95 on May the 13th that left a gap that they might be trying to fill?  That's only a 10 point move up in the spx, and it would also clear out all the stops above the 1150 level.  After the gap is filled, the market would then be very overbought on all the shorter time frames.  A sell off could then start down and continue the rest of the week.

We need the daily chart to roll over too, (as well as the weekly also), and if that happens then a really large sell off could become a reality.  I don't know "if" that going to happen or not, but certainly one should be looking to get short on a gap up on Monday.  For how long, is unknown?  I'd basically just close out the shorts once the charts on shorter time frames become oversold (probably by the end of the week).

The price level that they will be at won't be known, as if the daily chart doesn't roll over with the other charts, then the move down could be short lived.  We'll just have to cross that road when we get there.  But even if the daily doesn't turn, a day or two sell off should still happen.  If the daily "does" turn down, then it would be a multiple day down move.

I feel like we are ready to fall off a cliff hard, but with the elections just about 6 weeks away... I just don't know if they will let it happen or not?  As long as the big institutions don't hit the "sell" button, this sideways up and down chop could last awhile.

As for the fake print count (FP's) we have many of them to the downside now... which makes me believe they are going to tank it soon... but when?  We have one for JPM and GS... and now one on Google too.  I don't have any new upside FP's, just the old DIA 118.16 print from March 30th of this year.

My gut tells me that this market isn't going to really collapse until that upside print is filled.  Regardless of me wanting to see it fall off a cliff, into wave 3 of 3 of 3, etc... the reality is that's never that easy.  With the elections coming up in November, and Bernanke saying that they'll do "whatever it takes", means that they will probably put in another secret stimulus package into the market to keep it afloat until the elections are over.

But on the flip side, when that's over with, we know our first major downside target of DOW 8300, which coupled with the FP's on the XEU, XSF and XBP (and the JPM, GS and Google from above), all but confirm that the coming debasement is going to be huge!  The downside FP's are trying to tell us something... and we'd better be listening.

So, with only 1 upside FP from March, and 7 downside FP's... which side you favor?  Let's not forget the new Wallstreet movie was released over this weekend (the 24th), and the Legatus Pilgrimage ended on Monday of this past week.  The timing isn't always exact with them, but a significant trend change has happened around every meeting in the past... will this time be different?

Weren't we going up for 3 weeks into the meeting?  While it's possible that they continue to grind higher, with short lived pullbacks along the way, I still think this coming week could should sell off some.  I think Monday will be the high for the week, and the rest of it is down hill.

The short term charts are looking very toppy now, and even though they put in a bull flag on most of them... I don't think it will go too far.  Just a quick pop above the 1150 level to close that gap (at 115.95 spy) and clear some stops... and then it should be finished.

Monday should provide another excellent opportunity for the bears to get short again.  How far they sell it off it unknown of course, but we do still have the 105.39 FP that Anna caught awhile back.  However, forecasting is never that easy.  I only know that the print will eventually be hit.  Will it be this coming week?  Who knows?

I'd just be happy with a nice multi-day sell off after a Monday morning gap up and crap session.  This market still isn't in a "trend mode" yet, and until it is you must swing in and out of this short moves down (and up... if you like to play both sides?).

The bottom is this... look for a possible move up on Monday, and then a sell off the rest of the week, with Friday possibly being another UP day (due to another opx).  That's what I see in the charts, and that's my best guess for what I expect too happen.  Good luck to everyone...

Red

P.S.  Should panic set in, and margin calls happen on the big institutions, they will be dumping their gold.  Will this be the downside target?  I don't see that anytime soon, as gold is on a tear right now and will likely go up past the 1300 level and continue until the end of the year.  But if it ever does get down that low, it's the buying opportunity of a lifetime, as gold is still in a huge bull market.

P.S.S.  The link I talk about in the 2nd Video for the post by HighRev is here.

Go Bears!

Red
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Steak... It's what's for dinner!

Well gang, the bears regained the ball the last hour of the day, after an early fumble at the open.  It was a tough one, as may bears were sacked as the bulls ran the ball back up the field.  But in the end, the bears took the ball back and regained all that lost yardard.  It's about time!

Ok, so what's going to happen tomorrow?  My best quess is a flat day, as no major news data is scheduled to be released. The housing starts at 10am could maybe cause more selling, but they would have too be really bad.  I'm not expecting that to happen, but if it does... then all bets are off!  This market will tank!

What we are looking for now is for the oversold 5, 15, 30, and 60 minute charts to go back up and work off those conditions.  We want them to get overbought so we can get short again at a great spot.  This could take a couple of days... especially for the 60 minute chart.

So, assuming there's no major bad data or news released tomorrow, I'd expect the market to try to get back up to the 1130-1135 area.  Not making it up there will be very bearish, and will likely eliminate any chance the bulls have at the 1160-1170 spx area.  Personally, I think the top is in, and there won't be any move to that level... but anything is possible.

I'm not sure what count this is, according to the elliottwave people, but it looks like our wave 3 down has started now.  This could have been some sort of smaller wave 1 inside of it, and it might not be finished going down yet?  This smaller wave 1 will of course be broken down into even smaller waves.  The sell off into the close was likely a wave 3 inside it, and a wave 4 up tomorrow could be next?

Again, I'm no expert in EW patterns, but I do believe that we have some very ugly moves down coming over the next few weeks.  So, getting short for a multiple week down move could be done after these short term oversold conditions are reset.  Maybe tomorrow, or Monday?  We'll just have to wait until we see what the tape does tomorrow.

For tomorrow, TrekTrader caught another FP of 113.40 spy in the afterhours session on quotetracker.  I use Think Or Swim by Ameritrade, and I only see 113.18 print in the afterhours?  So, we will just assume that we should see some upside tomorrow to at minimum... the lower print.

Then look at the charts to see if they are becoming overbought or still oversold to make any decisions on going short again.  That might be the closing price level for tomorrow?  And since it's not likely to work off all the oversold conditions on the 60 (and maybe the 30) minute charts until Monday, you might not want to get heavy short over the weekend?

I'd stay light just in case they try to screw the bears Monday morning.  But, I'd want too have a few shorts... just in case they decide to stage some false flag event, or release some really bad news over the weekend... causing a gap down Monday.

I'm not expecting that to happen at this point, but I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow yet either.  So, let's leave that for the weekend post.  Ok, that's about it gang.  Just keep your eyes out for more FP's and post them or email them to me if you get one.

Thanks,

Red

Is The Short Term Top In?

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Mr. TopStep thinks so, and so do I...

While we could go up to the 1160-1170 level, I still think the market will go lower into the end of this week.  We have 2 FP's to the downside.  The first one is the 112.59 spy print, and then the 105.39 print from a month ago.  We also have a gap open at 1105 spx that will also be a magnet for the market this week.

While I'm not saying that we will go to the 105.39 print before the end of the week, I do believe it's going to be hit within the next couple of weeks.  Maybe a move down to the 112.59 level, and then one more push up to the 1160-1170 spx area next week?  Who knows?

The weekly chart is still pointing up, and hasn't rolled over yet.  So, another push higher is still in the cards.  If we go down to the 112.59 print this week, and then rally back up next week, that would probably form a nice negative diverence on the daily chart, putting in 2 histogram towers (with the 2nd tower being lower then the first one... of course).

I'm not sure what the trigger will be, other then just an overbought market.  Maybe that's enough?  I don't think they really need a reason to sell off to the 112.59 level, but if they don't go back up to the 1160-1170 level... and instead continue selling off to the 105.39 level, then a "reason" for the sell off will be needed.

What could it be?  Some more serious dirt coming out on JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs?  How about the default of the international debt the US owes the rest of the world?  Maybe another false flag event like the BP spill or 911?  Who knows?  Maybe nothing happens, as it's all just speculation at this point.

I just wouldn't be caught long this market right now, that's all.  I still believe this rally is 95%-100% done, and a major turn down is just a week or two away... and possibly a day or two?  Evil lurks in the dark, and we just can't see it or predict when it will show up.  But we knows it's close by, so we should carry some protection (aka... some "put's" in case it surprises us).

Today also put in a bear flag on many time frames, and could play out tomorrow if the initial claims and continuing claims data isn't too positive.  We expect the government to lie about the numbers of course, but what if they are still bad?  At this point, with the market up for the last 3 weeks, I think it's going to be a "sell the fact" event... no matter what the numbers are (unless they are really good, which is possible with the "magic eraser" that Bernanke owns).

Regardless, we are within spitting distance of the cliff (as old country boy might say... LOL).

Red

Do Or Die Time For The Bears

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What's it going to be, a new rally or a sell off?


I see a sell off, but Jim Cramer is now bullish.  Of course I'm not being paid for my promotions (err... opinions) like he is, so I'll let you come to your own conclusions there.  Regardless, the charts tell me that a sell off is coming.  This rising wedge has too break soon, as nothing goes straight up... especially if there's no more stimulus money to support it.

The bears need to gap this thing down below support tomorrow morning, or the bulls are going to stage another massive murder of them.  Maybe Cramer is right?  He doesn't always make the wrong calls... even if he's paid too do so.  He has to "save face" every now and then.  Of course that little comment in his video about breaking the 500,000 mark on the job data could be his escape... should the market sell off as I expect it too, instead of rally.

Moving on...

I'm sticking with my call that we are going to break down from this rising wedge and head lower toward the end of the week.  How low... I don't know?  Again, we still have that FP of 105.39 spy that will eventually be met... the "when" part is always the toughest one to figure out.

We also have the ritual side of this, which is the fact that the Legatus Pilgrimage is over now, and the market should reverse the direction it was going into the meeting... which was UP.  Let's not forget the release of the new Wallstreet movie too this week.

I'm not buying into this bullishness.  I still believe the market is 95%-100% done with this rally.  Tomorrow needs to break down out of this wedge, if the bears stand any chance.  If not, then we could be looking at a slow grind higher into the November elections.

Maybe we are going up to the DIA 118.16 FP first?  It's times like these that have me questioning my thoughts on the market.  Just when I'm thinking that maybe the bear case is dead, and this rally is for real... that the market finally reverses and heads lower.  I'm at that point now, so I know a top is close.

Will it start tomorrow, or wait for Thursday or Friday?  It should start tomorrow, but again... this bull just doesn't want too die just yet.  But, I'm a patient man and one more day doesn't matter to me...  I know a turn is coming soon.

Red

Weekend Update – Black Monday?

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Monday Update...


We hit the FP of 114.18 spy... now what?

Red

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Will The Market Crash On Monday?

I don't know?  But I do expect heavy selling all week long.  Whether it starts on Monday or waits until after the Fed meeting on Tuesday, is unknown?  But my gut tells me it will start on Monday... after Obama speaks.

Right now the market is looking for more morphine (Quantitative Easing Part Two... ie, MONEY) to keep it alive, but I don't think it's going to get any.

There are too many signs pointing to a sell off, instead of a rally.  There is the new Wallstreet movie (Money Never Sleeps), and the last Wallstreet movie was in... you guessed it, 1987!  The first Wallstreet movie was in... you guessed it too, 1929!  On top of that, the Legatus Pilgrimage ends on Monday the 20th, and this time the market has run up into the meeting.

The last meeting early this year in February the 4th-6th had the market going down for 4 weeks into the meeting.  The opposite is true this time, as the market has been going up for the last 3-4 weeks, into this September 9th-20th Legatus Pilgrimage.

Also, there is the report from Ben Fulford that there might be some announcement from the government concerning the possible default of the international debt that the US owes the rest of the world.  There is also the fact that the Federal Reverse will be bankrupt before the end of the year.

Who knows what other surprises could pop up next week?  We could start WW3... I surely hope not, but anything is possible.  Some event is likely going to be blamed as the catalyst for the coming crash, but it's really just what the charts say.  We are getting ready to start a bunch of wave 3's down, in elliottwave terms.  So the market is ready to sell off anyway, and doesn't need a reason.  But, you know the government is going to create a reason for the sell off.

As for Monday, it's possible that we go up into Obamas' speech at noon (est... I think?).  If so, then the target could be the 114.18 spy FP (possible FP?) that we got Friday morning.  I say "possible" FP, as I don't have a screen shot of it to see if it was a sharp spike to that level (which would indicate a FP), or a steady rise that matches up with the rally that occurred in the ES, which took it to about 1130 before selling off some prior to the open.

If it matches with the ES rising, then it could have been a real print as the 1130 area on the ES could be about 114.18 on the spy... but I can't say for sure?  So, just keep that target in mind if we open up on Monday.  I'd estimate that to be about 1140 spx, falling short of the 1150 area that many others are looking for.

I know that Mr. TopStep (Tim Haefke) stated that the ES could go up to 1148 (about 1154 spx), taking out a ton of buy stops in that area.  Could it happen?  Tim doesn't think so... and neither do I.  I'm sure Tim doesn't follow the FP's like I do, so he doesn't know about the 114.18 FP from Friday.

However, he did mention 2 upside levels that will be the next magnet target should the market want to go up a little more.  The first target he called for his video was 1135.90 ES, and the next one was 1148.10, which he doesn't think will be hit.  I agree with that, and I believe that the lower target of 1135.90 ES would line up nicely with the 114.18 spy FP level.

So, thinking like a wallstreet gangster here... if I were them, I'd take it up to 1135.90 ES (114.18 spy) on Monday morning to squeeze out all the bears that went short on Friday, and then tank it after Obama speaks.  This would trap a lot of bulls expecting QE2 to provide the next rally up, and not allow any bears to get short in a great spot.  All the bears would throw in the towel and go long, expecting a ride to 1150 or 1170 spx.

That breakout would also have the amateur bulls getting long too, while the pro's get short (actually, I think they've been getting short for the last week or so).  As Danny Riley said in one of his video's with Mr. TopStep... when the bears go long, it's time to get short!  I agree 100%!  (P.S... that should be Monday!).

Ok, so that about sums it up... I'm looking for a possible move up to 114.18 spy on Monday, and a sell off the rest of the week.  We still have that 105.39 spy FP from a few weeks ago, which could be the downside target for the first leg down in this move.  After that? Who knows?  We'll cross that road when we get there...

Red

Weekend Update – Wallstreet Never Sleeps

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Thursday Update...

One more push higher, then look out below!

Red

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Tuesday Update...

Wednesday looks like a down day, as even if the market manages to gap up and reach the 1130 level, it's like to fall back down and break the support line from this rising wedge it's in. We are within days of some serious selling I believe. Next week Ben Bernanke is likely so say something on Tuesday that will likely be blamed for the coming sell off. But we all know it's just what's in the technicals...

Red

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It's been awhile...

All of last week I was have computer problems and just realized that I haven't made a post since the last weekend update I did... sorry about that.  But, at least I picked a good week to do it... as this coming week should be pretty exciting.  After much pondering on whether or not they are going to pump a ton of new stimulus money into the market, which could rally it to the DIA 118.16 FP level... I don't see it happening now.

I think that the last week when Bernanke promised to "do whatever it takes" (meaning more stimulus money)... has now run it's course, and the rally is just about over.  The first time it worked for 13 months, and by April it ended.  The rallies in between were more attempts to jump start the market, and only lasted a short while.

This should be the last injection of money by the Federal Reserve gangsters as the Fed will likely be bankrupt by the end of this year.  There is still the planned switch to the newly gold backed Amero dollar, as Ben Fulford reports on it.  The end of the Fiscal year is this September 31st, and in his last report he spoke of the US defaulting on it's international debt.  When or if it really happens is unknown, but if it does... you will see market crash hard.

The new "WallStreet" movie called "Money Never Sleeps" is coming out on September the 24th, just 4 days after the Legatus Pilgrimage ends.  The last Wallstreet movie was in 1987, just around the time period known as "Black Monday"... remember that?

Reinhardt now thinks that we aren't likely too see more stimulus in the third week of September, an my old friend that used too post many comments here also believes that "the high is in" (for the year).  Those of you who have been around awhile will figure out who I'm referring too (hint:  he has a thing with num-bers).

The charts show us that the market is ready to roll over at anytime now.  Next week we should see a move lower, which could be the sell off we are look for, or just the "B" wave down (inside of wave 2 up), with the "C" wave up yet to come.  If so, then it should peak around that September 20th-24th time period.  I'd guess at the triple top level of 1130 spx, or possibly just a little higher (only to take out overhead stops... just before the sell off begins).

Of course we could also just sell off next week with a smaller wave 1 (inside a larger wave 3), with a smaller wave 2 back up the following week... and then the mother of all waves!  A wave 3 of 3 of 3 of etc... etc... etc...  (meaning "ONE BIG CRASH")!

I think that the Democrats that are trying to hold this market up until after the elections in November, but they are going to fail now I believe.  Too many signs point to a final top within the next 2 weeks occurring.  As much as they'd like to keep it up... the Viagra is wearing off now, and no amount more is going to work anymore.  Sometimes it's just needs to go down and rest, and Dow 8300 is the likely resting point for this sick market.

I've been leaning bullish over the last few weeks, ever since that weekly chart (and the daily too) pointed back up on the histogram bars.  It was also around the time that the Fed's pump more money into the market.  At that time period, Reinhardt was still putting up pictures of women that were... how should I say this?  errr... "in a stimulated state of mind".

I wondered why he was think that, as Bernanke already promised more money in the last Fed meeting about 2 weeks ago now.  If he promised it back then, before the Legatus Pilgrimage (and the market rallied hard from it)... then what's left to do after the meeting?  Can you say... nothing? ... as in "let the market fall to pieces".

I'm glad to see him change his opinion on it, as he's been correct too many times when it comes to the market direction before and after a Pilgrimage occurs.  I don't like being on the opposite side of someone who has proven his ability to call the market direction correctly so many times.

So, let's try get a little closer look at next week.  The daily chart is still pointing up, but can roll over at any time now.  The 60 minute chart is still pointing up, but also can roll over at any time now.  (I know, that's not much help... LOL).  My point is this, while the charts are pointing up, the market is in in a rising wedge with ton's of overhead resistance and some of the lightest volume of the year supporting it.

That all spells danger!  Danger Will Robinson... Danger!  (you need to be at least my age to understand that quote).  The triangle forming on the 15 minute chart could gap the market up on Monday, if it breaks out to the upside.  Of course if it breaks down then the market should fall pretty hard from it.  I'm leaning more for a breakout to the upside because of the 60 minute, daily and weekly chart still pointing up.

I've seen them rally all week (like last week), and get all the bears short at the end of the day on a Friday... and then gap it up on them Monday for the squeeze out, which then quickly reverses with no bears left to profit from it.  Just typical manipulation on their part.  Trick the masses, and not allow them to profit from the coming sell off.  That what leads me to believe that we have 1-2 more weeks left before the wave 3's begin.

However, if we do go up on Monday, I think we'll sell off on Tuesday.  Whether or not that is the start of the coming crash or not is still unknown?   It depends on how far down we go?  If we end the week out close to the 105.39 spy FP area, then I think the coming crash has started.

But, if we only sell off a little, and rally back to close the week out slightly down, flat, or even up (I doubt it, but possible), then that leads me to believe we'll see one more push higher to at least the 1130 triple top area.  The time is near though, as we are about to see a big stock market crash coming... and it's likely to surprise a lot of traders too I believe.

Ok, to sum it... I'm leaning more toward a continued move up on Monday, and some selling on Tuesday.  If the selling doesn't go down below the rising channel line now forming (about 1080-1085 area), then a final "C" wave back up into the week after this one is likely.  That would top it out around the end of the Pilgrimage and the release of the new Wallstreet movie.

The other possibility is a sell off down to the 105.39 spy FP by the end of this week (making a wave 1 down, inside a larger wave 3), with the following week retracing part of the down move (making a wave 2 up, inside a larger wave 3 down)... which leaves same time period of the 20th-24th to start the multiple wave 3's down (aka... a "Stock Market Crash").

Hopefully everyone can get positioned short over this coming week, and possibly next week, as the move down is going to be very profitable (for the bears that is... he he he).

Good luck everyone...

Red

Weekend Update – Market Manipulation To Extreme!

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Friday afternoon update...

Looks like I "may" have figured out my computer problem? Let's give it more time first, but it seems to be running stable now.

Red

P.S. Have a good weekend everyone...

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Wednesday update...

No More Taking The Stairs UP!

(I made a mistake thinking today was Memorial Day in the video. Duh... it's Labor Day! Sorry).

Last week is a clear example of how well controlled and manipulated this market really is.  A normal market will take the stairs up (meaning it slowly makes gains every day), and the elevator down (meaning it usually falls up to 6 times as fast going down, when compared to up).  But last week the market took the elevator up too... why?  Was this normal, or manipulation?

Duh!  We all know the answer there... MANIPULATION!  No normal market rallies straight up like we seen last week.  While the market has always been controlled, the level of manipulation today far exceeds that of just as little as 2 years ago.

All this monopoly money that the gangsters are printing has changed the game dramatically.  The little guys don't stand a chance in this rigged game.  It's not the same as playing blackjack in Vegas... it's worst!  Of course we all know that the house wins 95% of the time or more, but at least in that game the house doesn't know what you have in your hands.

In the market, they can see in your hands by the about of open interest on the various strike prices for the expiring option... and they can also see where everyones' "stops" are placed at!  That's like the house looking at your cards in Vegas... absolutely insane!

So why do we continue to play this rigged game?  I dunno... stupid I guess?  While I was calling for a move back up to the FP of 111.17 (spy) last week, I had NO idea that the market would go straight up on a rocket ship like it did.  Talk about total B.S.... that certainly was!

There was NO reason... not fundamentally, technically, or elliottwave that could explain the move up we had last week.  This was done for one reason... to rob the bears!  Many of my online blogger friends were hurt very badly during that ramp job.  I was lucky that I didn't have any positions at the time, but many others did.

There were a few brave one's who were long the market, and they were rewarded greatly.  Being a bear, I just don't have the guts to go long in this depression we are in.  I'll go long when the spy hits 20.16, but in the meantime... I'll just sit out the rallies in between.  LOL

Moving on...

The last video I did I thought that we would sell off on Friday to the 105.39 FP, making a "B" wave down in an ABC move up to the 111.17 FP from many weeks back.  But instead, they decide to skip the "B" wave down and simply go straight up to the 111.17 print first.  That leaves next week to go down to the 105.39 FP level, and then... who knows?

This market is so rigged that virtually impossible to get a clear direction of where the next trend is going to be?  I thought we would go down to the Dow 8300 FP one week, and then the next week I changed opinion to going up to the DIA 118.16 FP... and now I'm clueless as to which one we will hit first?

Of course that's exactly how they planned it... to confuse everyone.  But, knowing the targets (by the FP they give us) we should be able to figure out which one they are going too first by using technically analysis.  However, TA's only work for as long as they allow them to work.

How long is that?  Just about long enough to get ever bull and bear positioned in the market happily, thinking they got the next move figure out... and then BAM, they pull a rabbit out of hat!  I wonder why I keep trying to figure this game out, as every time I think I got it mastered, the rules change.

Such is life I guess.  Walking in a mine field voluntarily isn't the brightest thing too do, but us traders do it every day I guess.  Why do we do it time and time again?  I guess it's just the same reason people buy lottery tickets every week... one day we'll hit the jackpot (or just go broke trying... LOL).

Now to the market...

Clearly, from looking at the charts, you can see that we are overbought on the daily now, as well as the 60 minute chart too.  So yes, we should sell off on Tuesday... but will we?  With the light volume expected all week, due mainly to it being a shorten time period because of Memorial Day on Monday, I'm not expecting a lot traders too be there to buy and sell.

So, if they plan on taking it back down to the 105.39 FP next week, it will be the institutions selling while the little guy is sleeping (just like it always is...), which makes you wonder about the Legatus meeting starting on the 9th?  Are we going to rally into the meeting, and sell off after... or will the 105.39 FP be the low going into it, with a several month rally afterwards?

From a political point of view, I believe the Democrats would like to rally into the November elections.  But, there is still plenty of time to go down to the 8300 print first, and rally the rest of the year.  I look at the weekly chart and it does look ready to go up into positive territory on the histogram bars.  I've said in many video's that I'd like to see several positive bars occur, and then a roll over into the abyss.

You will notice that the weekly chart rallied up to the 20 and 50 day moving average lines and stopped.  There is a ton of overhead resistance beyond the current level, but with Bernanke now pumping more stimulus into the market, and the big institutional gangsters (errr... I mean banksters) sitting on their hands waiting for the "green light" to hit the sell button again... I just don't think that resistance will hold them back if they want to go higher.

So what's the bottom line?  While we are short term overbought, the intermediate term shows the market turning up now.  Of course it could just as easily roll back down at anytime, but for now it appears they plan to rally for awhile.  I can't say it's going to be easy, but again... anything is possible.

However, even if we do go up a little more next week, we should turn around the 12th according to the SpiralDates chart... which would line up with a the Legatus meeting too.  It would give the gangsters enough time to cash their check during the first few days of the Pilgrimage.

Let's also not forget that America could be announcing that it's going to default on it's international debt before the 31st of this month (according to Benjamin Fulford).  If that happens, then we go down... if not, then I guess we go up?  I know that's not much help, but I can see bullish patterns forming now... even though my gut tells me they are going to surprise everyone and tank it hard.

So hang in there bears, I really don't think we are going up too much further next week.  If we get to 1130 area, that would be a triple top... which I don't see it breaking on the first try.  "IF" and that's a big "if", we do continue higher next week, I'd expect it to fall short of that triple top, or go up there and trade sideways for several days baiting all the bulls into thinking it's going to break out from the bull flag it would form... then turn her back down around the 12th.

By the way, the 12th is on a Sunday... so that would imply a "weekend event" to cause a sell off the following week.  What could that be I wonder?  A post 911 bear celebration... maybe?  You know they aren't going to crash it on September the 11th... but the week after is a different story.

If I had to guess (and that all I do anyway), I'd say we chop around that 1130 level next week doing nothing be eroding the time value of any options the bulls and bears have.  We might even do an intraday stop swept just above that level on September the 10th to clear out the bears just before the plunge.

Anyway gang, I'm just speculating here, as I don't know what they have planned... or where the market is going next week.  So I'll close for now and wish everyone success next week.

Red

The Bear Squeeze…

Red
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1,012

Thursday Update...

Red

________________________________________________________________________________

Wow, what a rally!

I have too admit that I was doubting the bulls there for awhile, and was ready to eat crow on my call of a move to the FP of 111.17 spy... but today's action makes it look like that level could still be hit.  Of course that doesn't mean we are going straight up there... without a pullback, and we may have that pullback this Friday?

We had a FP of 105.39 spy today that I seen on my charts, but it disappeared too quickly to screen capture it.  Fortunatly, Anna caught it and here is the link for it.  Woody and Shaan also seen it, so it's a downside target for sure... the "when" is just something I'm guessing at.

Because the Non-Farm Payroll is out Friday morning, I get the feeling that it will be bad... which will cause the sell off to the FP level.  The other reason is the open interest on the calls and puts for this Friday's opx... which leads me to believe they will pin it between 105 and 106 area.  So the FP of 105.39 is spliting the difference, and may be the ideal spot for the crooks (errr.... market makers) to close it, so they don't have to pay out on all the "puts" that expire this week.

Of course this was just a normal technical bounce and the fact that opx was this Friday had nothing to do with (and the Sun is really a big ball of ice too... LOL).  We all know the truth there... Yes, we needed this rally to squeeze out the shorts, but the timing seems to happen around opx a lot?

Ok, from looking at the charts from today, I see a bull flag on the 60 and 15 minute... meaning that tomorrow could gap up quickly in the morning to squeeze out today's new shorts, but it should turn back down and close flat or lower.  That's a big "could", and not a "will" gap up... as the market is very overbought on the short term right now.

Usually a doji will follow such a large up day, but with the Initial Claims and Continuing Claims out in the morning tomorrow, the market could just reverse and gap down?  There is no way to know if the numbers are going to be good or bad?  One the FP tells us that they are going down at some point soon, and it's usually within 1-2 days on the intraday FP's.  Will this one be different?  I don't know?

But right now the open interest, and the FP tells me that we are likely going to hit 105.39 by this Friday's close.  No guarantees... on speculation on my part.  The charts are saying that we go up to finish the bull flag, but we did pop into the close today... so maybe that fulfilled the pattern?

There isn't any set rule on how high you go from a bull flag, only that it will likely pop higher at some point.  Well, we popped higher into the close... is that it?  The 15 minute charts aren't giving us any clues as they are rising up toward the zero level on the histogram bars, but the Full STO's are almost overbought.

Then the 60 minute chart is about peaked out now, and could turn down at any point.  Since it's the more powerful charts, that leads me to believe that any pop higher tomorrow won't last and the day should end with a doji or down.  The daily chart is pointing up now, so that tells me that we will likely go up next week, but that doesn't mean we won't sell off for a "B" wave down, if we are in an ABC (wave 2) up now... with a final target of the 111.17 spy FP level.

Of course this assumes the daily chart doesn't turn back down if we sell off on Friday... which I don't think it will on only a "one day sell off".  That would leave the 3 day weekend to calm down the bad NFP numbers and a rally back up next week could happen.

I'm basing this on the charts I see now, and things could changes of course, but I think that we need a positive close on the weekly chart before a large sell off.  Having 4 straight weeks down without an UP week is rare, and if we close down this week then that will make week four.

Ok, that's about all I got for now... good luck everyone.

Red

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