Is it over?  Is it finally over?  I mean the slaughtering of the bears last week of course.  Not quite yet, as the bulls are just too close to 1150 to stop now.  It would shock me if they didn't push up a little more and put in a double top.  After that, well that another story...

It should be quite obvious to everyone by now that the big institutions haven't been buying or selling while this light volume market floats up to the clouds everyday.  Why?  Because they already bought at the low last February the 5th.  They are now waiting for a final top to be put in before they unload again... to the unsuspecting public of course.

Look at this chart below (from Cobra's website) that shows where all the gaps are on the way up from that 104.58 spy low.  (He drew rectangle boxes to point them out).   Notice that there were also gaps on the way down from 115 to 104, and that all of those gaps have now been filled... except for one.  That area between 114.50 and the 115.14 high still hasn't been filled.  That's why the market will continue up on Monday or Tuesday most likely, and fill that gap.

In the chart above, note that the closing price on January the 29th was 107.39 spy.  Remember that I was able to catch a fake print on February the 17th, showing 107.38 as the low of that print.  Odd huh?  Is that where we are heading next?  Or possibly a newer fake print I caught today (March 6th, 2010) of 105.47 spy.  Something is weird here.

Maybe that print was always there, and I just missed it?  I don't know?  It's an old print now, as the date is from December 14th, 2009.  Here's another one when I go back 6 months on the chart (I only went back 3 months in the chart above).

The low on November 18th, 2009 was 103.78 spy (that's the fake print number, not the real low for the day).  Again, maybe these prints were already there, and maybe they don't mean anything.  But, you should still keep those numbers in the back of your mind, as the previous major fake print of 1047.28 SPX did play out as the market dropped to 1044.50 just a month later on February the 5th, 2010.  Of course it pierced the fake print level a little, but the hard reversal back up... with very large volume, was a clear sign that the fake print was accurate.

Back to next week...

What will cause a sell off to happen, you ask?  How about some more bad news too be realized, so that the media will have something to blame the sell off on.  The big institutions are going to start unloading those shares soon.  When is still unknown?  Since they haven't participated in buying on the way up, it's unlikely that they will start buying now, so that the market can push though the double top resistance and start a new bull rally.

I guess it's possible, but highly unlikely at this point.  They have had plenty of bad news released in the last month to give them a reason to sell and take profits.  I think we are going down to the 104 level for a double bottom.  The 200dma is about there now, and probably will be at 104 by the time we get back down there.

How fast it gets there is really based on what level they want to close the SPY on by option expiration.  I'm not sure if they will take one week, two weeks, or the rest of the month?  Regardless, once they take it down to the level that have targeted (I'm only forecasting the double bottom area.  It could only go down to put in a higher low), I do believe it will bounce back hard.

From that point... I don't know?  Will the possible double bottom put in a solid support and allow a rally to go up and break the 1150 top?  Or, will we only bounce to some Fib level, and then fall back again... taking out the 104 level on that trip?

The weekly chart still hasn't had a cross back down on the moving averages.  The 20ma is still above the 40ma, which tells me that the trend is still up.  Also, the MACD is still putting in lower Histogram bars and they are still smaller, and rising to the zero mark.  Will they cross and and go positive, putting in a lower tower then from the March 2009 area?

That will really depend on how much money the Fed's decide to pump back into the market.  Right now, they are trying to pull back the quantitative easing.   The average Joe trader doesn't have any money to put in this market, as they are probably trying to draw unemployment right now.  The crooked banks aren't going to use their stolen profits to pump the market up more.  So, that leaves the government.

At this point, the government is getting a lot of heat from other governments around the world, about the massive printing of the dollar.  That of course devalues it, and since other countries hold dollar denominated notes of some kind, they stand to lose billions as the dollar goes down.

Which leads me to believe that the government can't afford to put too much more money into the market.  That will put a topside limit on how high the market can go during the summer months.  How high you ask?  I can't answer that, as the top could already be in, or more stimulus money could push it up higher to 1300 or higher?  The 200 week moving average is at 1227.67 today, and then there is the peak in May of 2008 around 1320 area.  That would be the next level of resistance.  It's too hard too tell right now.

My personal feeling is that they will go down to sideways throughout the summer, not taking out the 1150 high, but not totally crashing below 900 either.  Then later this year, a big sell off.  The in-between area from Spring to Summer could go either way?

Ok, enough of the longer term picture...

Let's move on to next week.  Since there will probably be a ton of people waiting to go short at 1150, I don't think it will happen.  Instead, I see two possibly scenario's.  One, we go just shy of 1150, maybe to gap window on the 60 minute chart... which is about 114.50 spy, just a hair above where we closed on Friday.  Then the sell off starts, not allowing the retail trader to get in on a short position.  Or two, we go up to the 1150 level and pierce it by going a little higher.  Anyone who went short would get squeezed, which would be the fuel needed to push up another 10 points or so.

Either way, a sell off is likely to occur afterwards.  I really don't see the market getting through the double top, as a lot of bears are going to jump on at that level.  I think they will continue adding short positions on any pierce of that level too.  With that much selling pressure, and institutions wanting out of their long positions too, where is the money going to come from to rally higher?  Will Goldman buy at 1150?  I think not...

Most likely Goldman will be selling on every touch of 115, providing even more resistance to the unsuspecting retail bulls.  We could trade flat for a few days, bouncing up to 115, and down to 112.50 while the big boys unload their shares.  The problem with that idea is that they have very large positions, and when they really decide to sell their shares, the market will sell off hard.

However, it won't be the bears pushing the market down, it will be the big institutional bulls.  So, I can see some light at the end of the tunnel now, as I believe this bull train is coming to a stop.  Get your boarding tickets out bears, and be ready to climb aboard.  Next stop... Dark Territory.

Red

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Update for Monday...

No point making a special post for Monday as this was about the flattest day of trading I've seen in a long time, and nothing has changed.  The volume was the lowest all year, with only 106 million shares traded on the SPY.  Since Monday's are usually the most bullish day of the week, and the spy only moved up .01 cents, not making a double top as many people expected... I'd say that's pretty bearish.

A big move is coming... up or down, who knows?  I suspect down, but the market seems to fool me every time I say that.  So, I'll only forecast a big move  (I've ate enough crow to fill my belly for many weeks).

Red

I see no point in trying to forecast intraday, or even daily moves in this extremely manipulated stock market.  So, I'm going to focus on the weekly instead.  Let's look at the weekly chart below...

We are clearly forming a nice bear flag on it, as we have now completed 3 weeks of a down move, and 3 weeks of an up to sideways move.  Notice that last week was basically flat (down a little), putting in a bearish hammer candle.  If this bear flag plays out, then we should head down to the 104 spy double bottom area by the end of next week.

I suspect that the jobs numbers will be really bad this week, and will be blamed for the sell off coming.  But that doesn't come until later in the week.  So just remember, most Monday's are bullish, and I've rarely seen a big down day on Monday.  That doesn't mean it won't happen, only that it's not likely.  If Monday does push up a little more, then I think the target will be the 112.00-112.50 area, as it's provided great resistance in the past, and should continue to do so.

If that gets broken, then we are heading for a double top at 1115 spx.  I really don't see that happening with all the news out next week.  The bulls seem to be just about done now, as it's going to be extremely hard to push up very much further.  From the Monthly to Weekly charts putting huge downward pressure on the market, to the seasonality of March, and multiple turn dates coming up... it's not looking good for the bulls.

But... and this is a big butt, the bulls still have GOD on there side!  Yes, Goldman Sachs (aka God... at least in their sick minds) still has your money, and your children's money, and your children's children's money too use to buy up the worthless stocks in this doomed market.  (Personally, I thought God was a giving and caring person... not a THIEF!  That tells me they are doing the Devil's work... not God's).

Anyway, that simply means that NO about of Technical Analysis I do is going to be accurate with all the free money still manipulating the system.  If you have unlimited funds to keep the market up, then no about of selling will ever stick.  Anna seems to think that we won't get any significant downside until Obama pushes his worthless Heathcare system through.  That very well could be right?

Remember this... from the creation of the stock market, until the present, there has always been manipulation in the system.  However, the control that they have had, was limited by the amount of cash they had to work with.  When the PPT (Plunge Protection Team, created by Ronald Regan after the 1987 crash... which was originally designed to simply prevent further crashes, not manipulate the market) was created, the crooks seen that as an opportunity to have free funds from the government, instead of using just their own.

In the beginning, the amount of funding to the PPT was not nearly enough to fully control the market with the normal volume that occurs throughout the year.  But with light volume during holiday's and certain times of the year, the PPT soon discovered that they could fully control the market and push it in whichever direction they wanted.

Then along came March 6th, 2009... which forced Obama to turn the money flow on full blast, giving unlimited funds to the PPT (aka Goldman Sachs).  Their humble leader Lloyd Blankfein (aka GOD), does just what any good crook would do... buy up his own stock, almost tripling it in value over the next year.  Then, pay himself and other bankster pals huge bonuses with all the money that he had stolen from the unsuspecting American public.

What does all this mean?  Simple really... it means that you can't really use TA's anymore to forecast the possible direction with any kind of real accuracy.  I do believe that technical analysis still works on most individual stocks and some commodities... but not the overall market right now.

If it sounds like I'm bitching and complaining again... you're right, I am!  What good does it do to study charts, learn Elliottwave, Technical Analysis, Fibonacci Retracement levels, Astrology, Gann or Bradley turn dates, and any other forecasting method, if none of them work anymore.

I've always known that trading was very difficult, and not very easy to become successful at.  I've been through the "school of hard knocks", and I've put in my time in studying and learning the techniques that are available t0o be learned.  Obviously, the "real techniques" and secrets are buried inside Goldman Sachs, as I can't find anyone else who can figure out where this market is going next... can you?

Red

Bullish Monday again?  Yes, it's possible...  I know us bears can't seem to believe that the market could go higher, but it can.  When you look at the technicals, the ADX (advance/decline line) clearly shows that the bulls are still in control.  The adx line is now rolling over and starting to point down, just as the positive line is rising up, and crossing over the negative line.  What does that mean?

Simple... it means that the advancing move is losing momentum, but at the same time the positive di line is giving a bullishly cross over the negative di line.  This indicates that although the market itself is losing steam, the bears are too.  The di line (directional indicator) that is negative is the bears line.  When it rises the bears are starting to gaining power, but they also need the the adx line advance upwards too... showing that the momentum is also gaining power.

If you have one of the positive (green line) or negative (red line) di lines pointing up, then that line is in control.  So, if the positive line is above the negative line, then the market is in a bullish mode.  In the reverse, if the negative line is above the positive line, then the market is in a bearish mode.

Ok, now that seems simple enough, but where does the adx line come in?  The adx line simply shows the strength of whichever line is on top.  Any time the adx line starts to go down, then the market is losing power for the current trend.  Right now, we are seeing the adx line (black line) starting to point down, while the positive di line just crossed the negative di line.

So, even though the di lines had a bullish cross, that bullish move can't go too much further without the adx line rising up with it... giving the positive di line the strength it needs to rally up some more.  That leaves us in a sideways market until the adx line starts moving back up again, giving strength to whichever di line is point up at that time.

Hopefully that makes sense to you?  This means that the up move doesn't have much further to go next week, and that the down move can't happen until the adx line gains strength again by pointing up, at the same time the negative di line must also go up and crossover the positive line.

Just looking at the other indicators you would see how much the market is overbought.  But, it can remain overbought for much longer then you can believe it could.  It's the same thing on being oversold, as it could remain oversold longer then you might expect too.

It's all about how much strength (measured by the adx line) the market still has.  Once it loses strength, it doesn't have much further to go in that direction.  That why I'm expecting the market to be in a sideways mode next week, until the adx line cycles back down to the bottom and then gets ready for another momentum move... up or down?

This means I'm not expecting a big sell off on Monday, because there isn't as much momentum left (adx line) behind the move... in either direction.  Monday could pullback a little, or go up a little?  However, if adx line continues to roll back down, then I'd expect some profit taking by the middle of the week, but no big pullback.

A move down to the 1080-1085 level should be a good support level on any profit taking that should occur sometime this week.  This market will pullback, but it's not ready for the larger move down yet.  It appears that may not happen until the first week of March.  I still believe it's coming, because the monthly charts are clearly pointing down now.  They don't turn on a dime!  And, the weekly charts still putting in a bear flag.

The new larger trend is now down, but in the short term, we could chop around all next week, and really not go anywhere.  Here's a breakdown of where we are on each time frame...

• Monthly Charts - Down Trend
• Weekly Charts - Up Trend, but forming a Bear Flag
• Daily Charts - Up Trend, but almost topped out.  Very Over Extended
• 60 Minute Charts - Up Trend, but again... very over extended.
• 15 Minute Charts - Sideways Trend, and extremely over extended.

With each chart in different trends, you can now see why I think we will chop around next week.  What we are waiting for is for all the trends to line back up in the same direction, along with the adx line bottoming... and ready to rise upward, giving fresh momentum to the trend in control.

Clearly, the monthly chart has the most power, and it's pointing down.  We need to wait for the weekly chart to line back up and start pointing down too.  Then the daily, 60 minute, and 15 minute chart would be the last to all line up.  If you can be patient enough for this too happen, then you can ride a really nice long trend down.

In the meantime, we will just have to take it one day at a time.  Let's see what Monday brings first, and go from there.  If we start to pullback at any time during this week, we should remember that fake print of 107.38 spy that occurred last week.  It could be the place that the market will bounce from?  We'll just try to remember that for when some profit taking does finally happens.

On a side note... the market seems a little strange here lately, almost like it's fight between the good and bad forces that control the market.  Maybe Obama is really trying to be the good guy here, and keep the crooked banksters from dumping their shares and crashing the market?  It's hard too tell about him, as he's clearly been a puppet for the banksters since they put him in office last year.

Is he finally taking a stand and supporting the America people instead of the crooked banksters?  I doubt it... it's probably just a political move since he and the Democratic party is losing popularity every day now (and election time is coming up later this year too).  Sorry, I still don't trust him or support him.  He's just as worthless as Bush was.  Just a puppet on a string, that's pulled by the Rockefellers, Rothschilds, Vanderbilts, and all the other familys in the Illuminati that run this world.

What most people don't understand is that the United States of America isn't broke... it's the Federal Reserve that's broke!  And they are a PRIVATE entity (bank) that owns a Private Corporation called "The United States of America Corporation".  The Federal Reserve is run by crooked banksters that want to keep all of the profit that they've stolen from American's and push off all the debts and liabilities onto the country of Americia (aka... the taxpapers).  Does that sound fair too you?

If you like to listen to an audio by an insider named Benjamin Fulford by downloading this file (right click and save as).  If you would like to go to website, the link is here.  Scroll down the page to see Benjamin Fulford's link.  He also did some video's and they can be found here.

Many of this things haven't happened yet, which tells me that there is a fight between the good patriots of America and the crooked banksters.  Last weeks' weird action shows that something big is going to happen soon.  When is the big question?

Red

This has been a really tough week for me, as the expected next leg down didn't happen.  I'm now underwater pretty bad in my put spread that I purchased back on Friday the 5th.  I completely forgot a post I did a month ago, showing a fake print of 1047 on the spx, or I would have known we weren't going any lower yet.  Isn't it's funny how we pierced that level (1044) a little, and immediately bounced back up.  If that doesn't show you that the market is controlled and manipulated... I don't know what will.

Sundancer also caught that fake print and seems to agree with me that this is clearly the way wall street informs their buddies as to where they plan on taking the market to.  By the way, thanks a lot for all the great comments you post Sundancer.  I'm sure everyone will agree that you are very knowledgeable about the market, and have helped myself and many others that read this blog.  So, keep up the good work...

As for next week... it could go either way?  I really just don't know at this point.  I do agree with Sundancer that a gap up Tuesday is very likely... but where we go after that will probably depend on if they can hold that gap or not.  How many shorts are left in the market to squeeze?  I don't know?  If there is enough of them left, then it's very possible that they run the market to 110.34 spy before selling off again.

The news on Tuesday about the Greece bailout problem could be the reason to push it up or sell it?  It's seems that there aren't any bears willing to go short right now, for fear of being squeezed, and there also isn't any bulls willing to go heavily long either.  In fact, I suspect that most bulls are waiting for 110.34 to sell their long positions.  We are truly stuck in this rising wedge or channel, and no one is taking on any large risk right now.

That's why everyone is day trading, which produced the wild intraday swings that we had last week.  Neither side knows which direction this tape is going to go in.  It's great for day traders, but murder for swing traders.  I'm not going to post any charts this time as not much as changed from Thursday post, so you can look at those for reference.  I will tell you that The Chart Pattern Trader has 2 video's up, and should be watched to understand where we are, and what could happen next week.

Cobra's Blog is also excellent, and has some interesting statistics on his weekend post.  I'm certainly not too proud or self centered to try and keep you here on my blog only, and not tell you about other great chartists and blog writers.  I want everyone to succeed, and if I can't provide you with that information, I'll do my best to guide you to sites that I think are important to read.  I didn't create this blog to get a huge following, or generate traffic.  I only put it up to help others and for me to keep a record of my success, and failures.

I would be doing everyone a disservice by not informing you of others that I respect, and I won't do that too you as I wouldn't want it done too me.  I was clearly wrong on my call last week for the sell off, as it didn't happen.  Will it happen this week, and make my calls just too early?  Possible?  I don't know?  I do know that the news coming out about Greece this Tuesday will make a big impact on whether we continue higher to 110.34, or sell off one more time before a nice relief rally occurs.

I will definitely be on the lookout for another fake print as to see where they want to take the market next.  (Sundancer, please keep your eye's glued to your monitor too... just in case I miss it).  I do see us going down more in March, as I believe we will go down to that 900 area.  But, that's too far out now to worry about, as there will be many bounces along the way.

So, for Tuesday I'm expecting a gap up.  After that, it's up to the Greece news to determine the next move.  If it's not what wall street wants to hear, we could see some big selling.  Remember, that would put us in a wave 3 of wave 3 down, and it could fall pretty fast.  This is assuming that the wave count I posted on Thursday is accurate.  If it's not, then any move down would just be a wave 2, with and expected wave 3 back up to occur.

By the way, the current pain on the SPY is at 108.00, but that doesn't mean that's where they will close the tape on Friday (OPX).  It's been wrong many times in the past, so I don't hold to much weight to it anymore.

Best of luck to all of us, and keep up the great comments gang...

Red