We got the rally last Friday to the 5146 level from my short term Fibonacci Extension Target, which I'm going to abbreviate to just FET going forward. Now looking back in time from my post I did on the 161.8% extension it's common to see exactly what we saw last week. What I mean is that there was a run up to "almost hit the FET", then a small pullback, and final a hit and pierce of the FET.

We saw that happen last week with the first high of 5123, which was the one that fell shy, then the pullback, and finally the rally up to pierce the FET of 5146 on Friday. Now that was a short term FET, and since that pattern has completed now we should pullback some early this week before the next rally up to the next FET of 5190, which is close to another FET at 5225, so somewhere in that zone would be the next high before another small pullback or pause happens.

The levels that I calculated those price points from, (chart above), for the FET of 5190, was using the 4866 low on 1/31/24 to the 5066 high on 2/12/24, which projects a 161.8% extension high of 5190. The other FET of 5225 was calculated from the 2/21/24 low of 4959 to the recent high of 5123 on 2/23/24.

Those two are close to each other so somewhere in that range would be the next upside zone where the rally expected next week should end at and pullback or pause again. Meaning we should "pause" Monday and/or Tuesday of this week (possible pullback to 5110 or less?) and then start the next move up for the two FET's at 5190-5225 the rest of the week.

That should take us into the week of OPEX (next week), which is where the pullback for Small Wave 4 should happen.  That would leave Small Wave 5 up into the following week, and interestingly we have an FOMC meeting on Wednesday, March 20th... right in front of the turn date on March 22nd. Very nice timing for sure.

My best guess would again be to see a "pause" on Monday and Tuesday that week (18th/19th), and then a last squeeze back up into Friday the 22nd to reach the biggest FET I have, which was calculated from the 3502 in October of 2022 and the 4634 high on 7/27/23, which projects a 161.8% level of 5334. That... in my opinion is "The Big ONE", and should be the point where we see a nice pullback of 300-500 points from.

I'm thinking it will complete a Large Wave C (or 3?), which should produce a 5-10% pullback (if L3) or "the top" if LC... which would mean a much, much larger drop. I don't think it will be that way because I don't see any negative divergence yet on the weekly chart, but there's really no way to know until it happens. Here's my new adjusted wave count...

The big thing I've changed is that I removed the Tiny Waves 1-5 and just marked them as Small Waves. It suggests the 5066 high on 2/12/24 ended Small Wave 5 up, and Medium Wave 3 up. Then the pullback afterwards completed Medium Wave 4, and now we are in Medium Wave 5 up, which will have five small waves inside it.

My best guess is that we started Small Wave 3 up inside Medium Wave 5 last Friday, and that it will end in the 5190-5225 zone. Then a small pullback for Small Wave 4 the first couple of days next week, and the final Small Wave 5 up into Friday, March 22nd. That should complete Medium Wave 5, inside Large Wave C (or 3?) which is where the best sell should come from.  Here's a close up of the waves...

I think that on Friday we started Small Wave 3 up inside Medium Wave 5, which probably will end by this Friday.  The small intraday pullback on Thursday was likely a Tiny Wave 2, with Tiny Wave 3 up afterwards.  Any pullback today should be Tiny Wave 4, then Tiny Wave 5 should reach the 5190-5225 zone.

It's at that point where we could see a similar choppy sideways pullback the first 2-4 days of next week for Small Wave 4 that could look like Small Wave 2 did from it's 5123 start on 2/23 to the 5060 low on 2/29... only it will be shorter in time I think.  It should be the move into the FOMC next Wednesday the 20th.  Then something Powell says can be blamed for the final rally up into Friday toward FET of 5334.39 to complete all the waves.

The drop afterwards could be a large one.  I don't know how much but could be something similar to the July top (LA or L1) down to the October low (LB or L2).  That drop was from 4634.50 to 4122.25, which was a 11% pullback.  If we reach 5334.39 then 11% would be 590 points down roughly.  I doubt if it repeats like that but it's something to remember.  I lean toward 300-500 points at most.  We'll see.

Have a blessed day.

We got an early pop yesterday after the PCE data came out, which really wasn't important but the market was setup for a move up and it just used that data as a catalyst to rally. But it failed to hold and dropped back to negative midday after that 20 point pop, and then it went back up into the close to around the same zone.

The market is close to a bottom as that pop and retrace was back test of the falling channel the market has been in since the high. This tells me that today or Monday we should see another multi-day rally of 100+ points. Possibly it starts today, it's hard too know for sure? We got close to the 5050 zone yesterday with a hit of 5060, which might be "close enough", suggesting any pullback today might be just a higher low.

I posted the chart above in the chatroom yesterday, which is a fake print on the QQQ, and low and behold it was hit and pierce around the open before a reversal back down midday, so it was a "signal" that it would be a point of interest where the market would hit and turn from.

Over the many years of tracking FP's I've noticed that the intraday one's don't have any edge for them hitting and reversing back down for days or weeks. They can hit and pause, and the go further in the same direction, or hit and reverse for only an intraday move like yesterday... and then continue in the same direction. The only thing I use them for is to exit positions I'm in that are based on the technicals.

Moving on... another strong rally is close and should go into next week. We should hit my 5146 target, possibly pause there and pullback some. It will be a point to exit longs and wait for a better entry from another move down I think. But I'll have to wait to see how the technicals are when we get there, as it might reach the next target of 5190.

Now as far as wave count goes, if we bottomed yesterday, then that should completed Small Wave 4, which means we are in Small Wave 5 up now. Wave fives can go any amount. They can truncate short, extend to be longer then the wave three, match the wave one... pretty much any amount.

My feeling on it are that we have a target of 5146 with my Fibonacci Extension System, which is the shorter and closer one. Then there's another higher one at 5190, so one of those zone would be a likely top for the coming rally that I'm calling Small Wave 5 right now. If that count is correct then it will complete Medium Wave 3, and from there we should see a decent pullback of 3%+ I'd think.

We have Jay Powell speaking next Wednesday, so possibly we rally up into that date and he causes some small panic for that Medium Wave 4 pullback? But it shouldn't start the bigger pullback I think as it should be followed by Medium Wave 5 up into late March, like "possibly" the 22nd? If that happens we'll complete either a Large Wave C or 5, and with the C the market will have topped and we'll start the bear market.

But I lean toward the 5 because there's no negative divergence on the weekly chart yet, therefore a 5-10% pullback for Large Wave 4 would be more likely. Then a final rally for Large Wave 5 into late summer. Below is a chart I posted in the chatroom yesterday showing that divergences.

It's never a guarantee that we MUST have a negative divergence but usually we have one. Something that could cause that not to happen would be some kind of event (another false flag?), which then we'd get another drop like the COVID crash in 2020. I have no way of knowing if that's going to happen or not, so I will just place my short with the mindset that we will only get a 5-10% pullback, and if it turns out to be more then I'll adapt. We'll cross that road when we get there. For now let's just see if we get the rally up to 5146 or 5190 the next few days.

Have a great weekend.

Have a blessed day.

More chop yesterday with a drift lower. It's getting close to the 5050 support zone now, and the RSI is working its' way down closer to oversold. It doesn't have to reach oversold of course as in strong up trends it doesn't get buried below the 30 level, so a bottom is very close now.

It could happen today or it could have been yesterday, but after that I do expect a rally up next week with the target of 5146 for the short term and 5190-5225 ultimately. I'll have to see where the technicals are once the first lower upside target is met, as that might be all we get on the coming rally before another pullback like the current one happens.

It's hard to say until we get there first, and how long it takes to get there is important to as "time" for the strong bullish period the first week of March. If there is enough time left then we could reach the higher level, but if it takes all of next week to reach the lower target then time will run out and we should pullback again the week of OPEX prior to those higher levels being reached.

And while I want to see the March 22nd turn date produce a high that's not known at this point as it could be a bottom? Right now though it does look possible to play out, which will either be the end of Medium Wave 3 (meaning Medium Wave 4 be the pullback, which might just be 3-5%) or the Large Wave C (or 3?), which would should result in a larger pullback, like 5-9% possibly.

Have a blessed day.

Pretty much as expected yesterday... a little lower throughout the day and then up into the close.  That bounce was likely a B wave, which clearly ended as we are back down again this morning.  So I have to think we are now in the C wave down of Small Wave 4 and will finish soon, probably in a day or so.

Then we should start Small Wave 5 up to complete Medium Wave 3, which might end by the end of next week? If so, I'd look for Medium Wave 4 to play out during the week of OPEX, which should be followed by Medium Wave 5 up into the turn date on March 22nd.  This is the ideal path but we all know the market rarely plays out like you want it, so I'll just adjust as we go forward.

As for today, I think the upside is limited as we appear to be in a C wave as I said, but it should end today or tomorrow and then we start back up.  My target is 5190-5225 to complete Medium Wave 3.

Have a blessed day.

We started the pullback yesterday, which was mostly into the close. I do not know how low it will go as it could be finished now, but the 5050 zone is an important support that would be ideal for a long. However, with yesterday and Sunday being a "turn window" I decided to take a chance and just re buy my previous longs at a cheaper price.

We might go down to that 5050 zone, but if it happens I'll just ride it out as I still think we will rally up into the next turn date on March 22nd. For me, I'm just trying to get another good entry on the longs, which I did, but nailing the exact best spot is impossible. Not much else to add here as the overall trend is still up and that's how I'm trading it.

Have a blessed day.

Last Friday played out pretty much as expected, which was a follow through to the upside in the morning and fade back to flat by the close. I said last week that if this happened we would have completed Tiny Wave 1 up inside Small Wave 3, inside Medium Wave 3.  It's always a "best guess" on the smaller degree waves, so I'm going to re-adjust them a little because of how much time is left before the next major turn date on March 22nd (which obviously isn't very much).

I think that early this week we should pullback to around 5050 on the ES.  And since this entire week is normally a bearish period according to the Seasonality Chart, we could see a full week of range-bound moves to shake out both bulls and bears before we start the next trend move up.

Many subdividing waves might be the plan inside these Tiny Waves while the short term overbought charts reset. So even if we put in a low of say 5050 on Monday it could be revisited later in the week to make a higher low of a few points, which would be (again) to shake out bulls and lure in bears. It's the first week of March that is bullish, so that should be where the market starts another squeeze higher I think. Here's the wave count with the new adjustments...

My short term upside target is around 5225, which is based off my 161.8% system, whereas I'm assuming we'll pullback to 5050 this week to allow me to get a projection from the 4959 low on 2/21 up to the 5123 high on 2/23 that would make "the A leg" part of the ABC pattern, which I covered on my weekend update post about the 161.8% extension last weekend.

These "legs" are not my Elliottwave count, but I had to give them some kind of name, so I'm calling them A, B, and C legs to make and complete a pattern. Here's that chart below...

Again, that's not a wave count.  It's just a short term target (probably the first week of March) that once hit will complete a 161.8% pattern.  This pattern can repeat over and over until the end of the multi-month or year rally ends.  When that happens we'll get a big selloff of course, that flips us from a bull market to a bear market... meaning the 200 SMA is lost.

That's not happened yet, so currently I will continue to look for this pattern to give higher highs.  The "shot across the bow" will be when we get 5-9% pullback, like all of those in the past that I covered on that Fibonacci Extension post, as over the past 20 years pullbacks of that percentage usually produced just one more higher high before the market flipped from the bull market rally to a bear market correction.

In conclusion I'm looking for this week to have a choppy downward bias with 5050 as support.  And next week I'm expecting another rally up toward my 5225 target.

Have a blessed day.

The market continued to squeeze higher yesterday putting in a 100+ point move and making a new all time high. Looking back at different wave counts I've done I think the one that we are most likely on right now is the Extended Alternative Bullish Wave Count - February 18th 2024.

On that chart I have Medium Wave 1 topping on 12/29 at 4841, then M2 bottoming on 1/5 at 4702, which puts us inside a Medium Wave 3 up from that low. Small Wave 1 up ended on 2/12 at the 5066 high, and that's where an ABC pullback happened into yesterdays low of 4959. That means we are inside Small Wave 3 up right now. Below is that chart that I did on February 18th.

If I'm right on that count then we will likely subdivide into 5 Tiny Waves inside Small Wave 3 up, which we probably completed Tiny Wave 1 up at yesterdays high. Meaning that we should pullback small (20-40 points?) today and into Monday for Tiny Wave 2, which would be perfect for the turn date on the 25th/26th as then it would indeed put in a low (higher low, but a low never the less).

This would setup the rest of next week for Tiny Wave 3 up, inside Small Wave 3 up, inside Medium Wave 3 up, inside Large Wave C up... to continue the rally higher into March 22nd, the next important turn date. Below is a close up of that chart...

As you can see on that chart I'm not looking for a lot for Tiny Wave 2 into next Monday. From there (if this all plays out as it's always a "best guess") we should grind higher in a Tiny Wave 3 up, then 4 down and 5 up to complete Small Wave 3 up. A pullback for Tiny Wave 4 should follow and then more slightly higher high for Small Wave 5, which will complete Medium Wave 3 up.

This should look a lot like all the prior patterns going back in time that I covered on my "Weekend Update – A Study Of The 161.8 Fibonacci Extension" post, which commonly shows a high for the 161.8% getting "almost" hit, then a pullback, and a final higher high that pierces through it. That will be the S3 high, S4 pullback and Small Wave 5 pierce. Then a good pullback will follow.

I did a projection for the target high using that 161.8% method and it points to 5309, which was created from the 3502 low to the 4619 high. That points to 5309, but I also decide to do another one from the 4122 low (MC of LB) to the 4841 high (S5 of M1), and that projects 5286... so somewhere in that zone is where the top for M3 should appear.

Moving on... after the close we got a FP of 505.76 on the SPY, which I think will be the pullback low for Tiny Wave 2 today, or Monday.

Have a great weekend.

(Post wrote last night)

Yesterday the market drifted lower all day and bypassed the FOMC minutes as it didn't have any real affect, but the earnings from Nvidia after hours causes a nice move back up like I was expecting.

Now we have to see how high this rally goes into this Friday as if we take out that 5059 and 5066 high then the lows are likely in and we will only pullback into the Sunday/Monday turn window (25th/26th) for a higher low. From there we grind higher into the March 22nd turn date to finally top out (hopefully?) before a nice 3-9% pullback. The alternative would be that if we fall to make a higher high by this Friday then I'd lean toward one more drop into this Sunday/Monday for another lower low then last weeks low from the CPI number.

I really don't favor that happening but it could. It would have to go lower then yesterday and after the squeeze up from Nvidia yesterday after the close I really don't put that has happening.

What I think will happen is that we grind higher and pullback small so that the coming turn date gets bypassed... meaning it doesn't make a new high and is simply a down day, which qualifies for it being a "turn" as after that the rest of next week should be up, and I think it continues that grind all the way into the next turn date on March 22nd. The best thing the bulls can do is to "build a base" for several days... meaning "No Breakout" until after this coming Sunday/Monday passes by. Time will tell.

Have a blessed day.

From the February 12th high of 5066 the market has been pulling back in what appears to be an ABC move with the 5059 high on the 16th being the B part and the current pullback being the C wave. I don't know if it's finished or not as most C waves subdivide in 5 waves, so the move up from the close yesterday might be just a wave 2 inside that C down... or it ended at low on Tuesday.

The line in the sand I think is the current all time high of 5066 and the 5059 lower high, as if the market rallies up over them today, tomorrow or Friday then obviously the ABC down finished and another strong leg up in the market will be in play. So the 5059 level must hold to keep the bears in control as a lower high below that amount should then be a wave 2 inside the C wave down.

The short term charts are oversold and support a rally today/tomorrow but the daily is still closer to overbought, even with yesterdays pullback, (but the trend is still up). We have  news events like the FOMC minutes from last month coming out today at 2pm, and then NVDA earnings after the close today, that's 2 things that could move the market both directions.

Based on the technicals I'd think that the FOMC would cause a rally up into the close where the 5059 lower high will be the decision level. If it fails to take out that level then the earnings from NVDA after the close could cause the market to gap over it tomorrow, or to reverse back down on Thursday, which could be a wave 3 inside a C wave?

That move might be the move that ends Sunday in the futures or Monday morning to complete all 5 waves in the C wave of the ABC down. But if the 5066 high is taken out then the squeeze up much higher should top us on Friday and then a small pullback in the 25th/26th would be likely I'd think to still make a low in that turn window.

However, if by some crazy move up into a top on Friday, that then goes slightly higher into Sunday/Monday then that "expected" low for the turn window will become a high instead, and sell for a much deeper pullback. I don't think that will happen but it's certainly possible. I lean toward the 5 waves down in the C wave of the ABC down, which should bottom in the turn window, which is my logical thoughts of course.  Oddly my gut tells me we are going to make a new high.

I'm still long and riding it out as I'm still focused on the top into March 22nd, which could be 5200-5300 I think.  Everything this week is done to shakeout bulls and bears alike, so I have to just stand my ground and let the bigger picture play out, which is still up I think.

Have a blessed day.

I did a long update over the weekend and posted it Sunday afternoon, so I'll keep this one short and just refer you to read that long update for the bigger picture. For the short term I lean toward an early rally this week up near the all time high, but I think it fails to take it out and instead makes a lower higher.

Odds favor that happening today and then some choppy action the rest of this week that drifts lower, with the bottom being put in next Monday morning (or Sunday night, the 25th). From there it's up to around 5307, which I think will happen into the March 22nd turn date. After that a nice pullback of some decent amount. How much I don't know but I'd think it could be that 7-10% pullback that everyone is looking for, but it might be less... hard to say right now. I covered all the past periods where the pattern appeared and we had different percentages on each one.

It was anywhere from 3% to 9% going back 20 years, so I'd think somewhere in the middle would be the zone. If it's 5% for example then from 5300 we'd pullback to about 5035, but I'd think they might want to pierce through it a little to make everyone think the high is in... which it might be, but studying the past it wasn't the last high the majority of the time. But I'm getting ahead of myself, so let's just focus on the short term. That is up early this week (today) to try and make another higher high, and then down into the 25th/26th.

Have a blessed day.

Ok, looks like the pullback is over and we are off to the races on the upside into the next major turn date of March 22nd, which should be the final top for this rally. Next Monday the market is closed for presidents day, so that entire week might have light volume, which favors the bulls of course.

I don't know how high we go but when we top I don't think there will be a single bear left. That will open the door for a crash, and that's very possible if this plays out like I think it will. There is a Lunar Eclipse on March 24th/25th and Full Moon on the 25th, with a Solar Eclipse on April 8th... so everything will be setup for a crash if the market wants to do it.

I don't know what the wave count will be but I'll try to figure it out going into that date over this weekend. It really doesn't matter as I'm sure that once the date arrives I'll be able to look back and figure it out.

I'm quite confident about this next turn date being the final high now, whereas if we had started an 7-10% correction last Tuesday we could have pushed out the last high into August or September, but now that we just had a short lived tiny pullback that ended already it means we are going up into next month for sure, and will drop very hard afterward. If you are a bear it's best to save your cash and wait for March 22nd to arrive.

Have a great weekend.

After I wrote yesterdays update I posted on Twitter and in the chatroom that I didn't like the looks of the rally back up and that I was worried that it could kill the bearish case. Meaning that we needed to roll back over yesterday and start the next leg down. That failed to happen as the market chopped all day and rallied up into the close to hit the 5015-5020 zone, which is the "line in the sand" for the bulls versus bears.

Above it and the lows are in with just that one big down day on the 13th, so my turn date put in a low instead of a high like I wanted and thought would happen. The pullback has turned out to be my Alternative Bullish Wave Count that projected the smallest move down it seems.

If you go back and read that Monday update I was looking for about 4875-4900 for the low and we hit 4936 as the low. That wasn't even 23.6%, but it is what it is I guess, but it was the wave count I leaned to the most. I just thought it would last more then a day or so, but they did everything in just 2 days and completed the pullback. So unless the bears and take the market back below the 5015-5020 zone odds are very strong that the low is in now and we are off to new all time highs and beyond again. I'll now be looking for March 22nd as the next possible "turn" in the market, which should be a top I think. We shall see.

Have a blessed day.

Ugly day for the bulls yesterday. I thought that maybe we would get a nice bounce back up but it was small and we continued down lower with just a midday small rally. At this point I think the high is in and we are going down for several more days before we get a multi-day good bounce.

I think we bottom into Monday and then have a strong rally up into Tuesday the 20th, but that could extend into Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. That would be a bigger degree B wave I believe and then we get the final C wave down into the 26th to end the correction.

How low you ask? That's a tough one but the 4600 zone is what I'm leaning toward. Maybe we get more, or maybe less, but that's my thoughts on it. I don't think we get much of a rally on the upside until we first go lower. I know that many people are just looking for this to be short lived pullback that is about done, and that we get one more higher high, but I don't see that now.

We got close enough to the 5080-5090 target on Monday and now we should be in a correction mode for several weeks. I've covered all my thoughts in great detail on Mondays update, so not much else to add.

Have a blessed day.

Yesterday opened flat, and I thought it would stay that way all day as the market waited on the CPI this morning. But instead we started to rally up and got all the way to 5066.50, which is just shy of the 5080-5090 zone, and could be "close enough"? Meaning I'm not sure if we go any higher on not today? Today is the 13th and is the date I was looking for to mark the top but it yesterday could have been it too.

Here's my best guess on the very short term wave count. Again, it's just a guess, so it's likely wrong. Meaning that we are super close now, and my ET5 might not happen? We could have topped yesterday at ET3, which I'd just relabel to call it ET5.

That is my Alternative Bullish Wave Count, but I really don't know which one we will do? We could be on the First Bullish Wave Count (a medium bearish one) or the Second Bullish Wave Count, which is my most bearish one. It's a toss of a coin here to which one is right, but the important thing is that all three of them are bearish ones, which means we will go down some amount in the next few weeks. Whether or not it's 4%, 7-8%, or 10-12% is what I don't know, but once it starts I should be able to get a better idea of which path we are on. I will just plan for the least bearish Alternative Count and be happy if we see the most bearish.

Have a blessed day.