Friday, July 24, 2026
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Weekend Update – Another Bear Squeeze

Red
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Monday update...

Another FP showed up that Jim Hobson caught (thanks Jim).  It's of the Russell 1000, (RIFIN) and shows a downside target of 439.63 on the daily chart.  More and more signs are telling us that something wicked is coming this way soon.

Red

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Just when you think the bears are going to win... they dropped the ball again!

Well, what can you say... they didn't call them the "Bad News Bears" for nothing.  While they lose most of time, occasionally they'll win one.  I guess I've always liked the "underdog", and so I rout for the bears all of the time.  But, in this game of baseball (which is just like the stock market)... you're going lose a lot more then you win.

So the bears took another beating on Friday, which took me by surprise I must admit.  While I was expecting an UP day, I was only expecting a move to 1130-1135 spx, not a 20 point rally to happen.  But, I wasn't in any short positions on Friday, so I wasn't hurt by the move up.  I only hope my fellow bears weren't hurt either.

As for next week, what do I see?  Certainly the charts are now mixed with both bullish and bearish counts.  What I'd like to see is a gap up on Monday, and then a sell off to follow.  And, it's quite possible that we'll get one as there are overhead stops above 1150 that I'm sure they've love to take out before plunging the market.

There is an opening price of 115.95 on May the 13th that left a gap that they might be trying to fill?  That's only a 10 point move up in the spx, and it would also clear out all the stops above the 1150 level.  After the gap is filled, the market would then be very overbought on all the shorter time frames.  A sell off could then start down and continue the rest of the week.

We need the daily chart to roll over too, (as well as the weekly also), and if that happens then a really large sell off could become a reality.  I don't know "if" that going to happen or not, but certainly one should be looking to get short on a gap up on Monday.  For how long, is unknown?  I'd basically just close out the shorts once the charts on shorter time frames become oversold (probably by the end of the week).

The price level that they will be at won't be known, as if the daily chart doesn't roll over with the other charts, then the move down could be short lived.  We'll just have to cross that road when we get there.  But even if the daily doesn't turn, a day or two sell off should still happen.  If the daily "does" turn down, then it would be a multiple day down move.

I feel like we are ready to fall off a cliff hard, but with the elections just about 6 weeks away... I just don't know if they will let it happen or not?  As long as the big institutions don't hit the "sell" button, this sideways up and down chop could last awhile.

As for the fake print count (FP's) we have many of them to the downside now... which makes me believe they are going to tank it soon... but when?  We have one for JPM and GS... and now one on Google too.  I don't have any new upside FP's, just the old DIA 118.16 print from March 30th of this year.

My gut tells me that this market isn't going to really collapse until that upside print is filled.  Regardless of me wanting to see it fall off a cliff, into wave 3 of 3 of 3, etc... the reality is that's never that easy.  With the elections coming up in November, and Bernanke saying that they'll do "whatever it takes", means that they will probably put in another secret stimulus package into the market to keep it afloat until the elections are over.

But on the flip side, when that's over with, we know our first major downside target of DOW 8300, which coupled with the FP's on the XEU, XSF and XBP (and the JPM, GS and Google from above), all but confirm that the coming debasement is going to be huge!  The downside FP's are trying to tell us something... and we'd better be listening.

So, with only 1 upside FP from March, and 7 downside FP's... which side you favor?  Let's not forget the new Wallstreet movie was released over this weekend (the 24th), and the Legatus Pilgrimage ended on Monday of this past week.  The timing isn't always exact with them, but a significant trend change has happened around every meeting in the past... will this time be different?

Weren't we going up for 3 weeks into the meeting?  While it's possible that they continue to grind higher, with short lived pullbacks along the way, I still think this coming week could should sell off some.  I think Monday will be the high for the week, and the rest of it is down hill.

The short term charts are looking very toppy now, and even though they put in a bull flag on most of them... I don't think it will go too far.  Just a quick pop above the 1150 level to close that gap (at 115.95 spy) and clear some stops... and then it should be finished.

Monday should provide another excellent opportunity for the bears to get short again.  How far they sell it off it unknown of course, but we do still have the 105.39 FP that Anna caught awhile back.  However, forecasting is never that easy.  I only know that the print will eventually be hit.  Will it be this coming week?  Who knows?

I'd just be happy with a nice multi-day sell off after a Monday morning gap up and crap session.  This market still isn't in a "trend mode" yet, and until it is you must swing in and out of this short moves down (and up... if you like to play both sides?).

The bottom is this... look for a possible move up on Monday, and then a sell off the rest of the week, with Friday possibly being another UP day (due to another opx).  That's what I see in the charts, and that's my best guess for what I expect too happen.  Good luck to everyone...

Red

P.S.  Should panic set in, and margin calls happen on the big institutions, they will be dumping their gold.  Will this be the downside target?  I don't see that anytime soon, as gold is on a tear right now and will likely go up past the 1300 level and continue until the end of the year.  But if it ever does get down that low, it's the buying opportunity of a lifetime, as gold is still in a huge bull market.

P.S.S.  The link I talk about in the 2nd Video for the post by HighRev is here.

Go Bears!

Red
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Steak... It's what's for dinner!

Well gang, the bears regained the ball the last hour of the day, after an early fumble at the open.  It was a tough one, as may bears were sacked as the bulls ran the ball back up the field.  But in the end, the bears took the ball back and regained all that lost yardard.  It's about time!

Ok, so what's going to happen tomorrow?  My best quess is a flat day, as no major news data is scheduled to be released. The housing starts at 10am could maybe cause more selling, but they would have too be really bad.  I'm not expecting that to happen, but if it does... then all bets are off!  This market will tank!

What we are looking for now is for the oversold 5, 15, 30, and 60 minute charts to go back up and work off those conditions.  We want them to get overbought so we can get short again at a great spot.  This could take a couple of days... especially for the 60 minute chart.

So, assuming there's no major bad data or news released tomorrow, I'd expect the market to try to get back up to the 1130-1135 area.  Not making it up there will be very bearish, and will likely eliminate any chance the bulls have at the 1160-1170 spx area.  Personally, I think the top is in, and there won't be any move to that level... but anything is possible.

I'm not sure what count this is, according to the elliottwave people, but it looks like our wave 3 down has started now.  This could have been some sort of smaller wave 1 inside of it, and it might not be finished going down yet?  This smaller wave 1 will of course be broken down into even smaller waves.  The sell off into the close was likely a wave 3 inside it, and a wave 4 up tomorrow could be next?

Again, I'm no expert in EW patterns, but I do believe that we have some very ugly moves down coming over the next few weeks.  So, getting short for a multiple week down move could be done after these short term oversold conditions are reset.  Maybe tomorrow, or Monday?  We'll just have to wait until we see what the tape does tomorrow.

For tomorrow, TrekTrader caught another FP of 113.40 spy in the afterhours session on quotetracker.  I use Think Or Swim by Ameritrade, and I only see 113.18 print in the afterhours?  So, we will just assume that we should see some upside tomorrow to at minimum... the lower print.

Then look at the charts to see if they are becoming overbought or still oversold to make any decisions on going short again.  That might be the closing price level for tomorrow?  And since it's not likely to work off all the oversold conditions on the 60 (and maybe the 30) minute charts until Monday, you might not want to get heavy short over the weekend?

I'd stay light just in case they try to screw the bears Monday morning.  But, I'd want too have a few shorts... just in case they decide to stage some false flag event, or release some really bad news over the weekend... causing a gap down Monday.

I'm not expecting that to happen at this point, but I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow yet either.  So, let's leave that for the weekend post.  Ok, that's about it gang.  Just keep your eyes out for more FP's and post them or email them to me if you get one.

Thanks,

Red

Is The Short Term Top In?

Red
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Mr. TopStep thinks so, and so do I...

While we could go up to the 1160-1170 level, I still think the market will go lower into the end of this week.  We have 2 FP's to the downside.  The first one is the 112.59 spy print, and then the 105.39 print from a month ago.  We also have a gap open at 1105 spx that will also be a magnet for the market this week.

While I'm not saying that we will go to the 105.39 print before the end of the week, I do believe it's going to be hit within the next couple of weeks.  Maybe a move down to the 112.59 level, and then one more push up to the 1160-1170 spx area next week?  Who knows?

The weekly chart is still pointing up, and hasn't rolled over yet.  So, another push higher is still in the cards.  If we go down to the 112.59 print this week, and then rally back up next week, that would probably form a nice negative diverence on the daily chart, putting in 2 histogram towers (with the 2nd tower being lower then the first one... of course).

I'm not sure what the trigger will be, other then just an overbought market.  Maybe that's enough?  I don't think they really need a reason to sell off to the 112.59 level, but if they don't go back up to the 1160-1170 level... and instead continue selling off to the 105.39 level, then a "reason" for the sell off will be needed.

What could it be?  Some more serious dirt coming out on JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs?  How about the default of the international debt the US owes the rest of the world?  Maybe another false flag event like the BP spill or 911?  Who knows?  Maybe nothing happens, as it's all just speculation at this point.

I just wouldn't be caught long this market right now, that's all.  I still believe this rally is 95%-100% done, and a major turn down is just a week or two away... and possibly a day or two?  Evil lurks in the dark, and we just can't see it or predict when it will show up.  But we knows it's close by, so we should carry some protection (aka... some "put's" in case it surprises us).

Today also put in a bear flag on many time frames, and could play out tomorrow if the initial claims and continuing claims data isn't too positive.  We expect the government to lie about the numbers of course, but what if they are still bad?  At this point, with the market up for the last 3 weeks, I think it's going to be a "sell the fact" event... no matter what the numbers are (unless they are really good, which is possible with the "magic eraser" that Bernanke owns).

Regardless, we are within spitting distance of the cliff (as old country boy might say... LOL).

Red

Do Or Die Time For The Bears

Red
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What's it going to be, a new rally or a sell off?


I see a sell off, but Jim Cramer is now bullish.  Of course I'm not being paid for my promotions (err... opinions) like he is, so I'll let you come to your own conclusions there.  Regardless, the charts tell me that a sell off is coming.  This rising wedge has too break soon, as nothing goes straight up... especially if there's no more stimulus money to support it.

The bears need to gap this thing down below support tomorrow morning, or the bulls are going to stage another massive murder of them.  Maybe Cramer is right?  He doesn't always make the wrong calls... even if he's paid too do so.  He has to "save face" every now and then.  Of course that little comment in his video about breaking the 500,000 mark on the job data could be his escape... should the market sell off as I expect it too, instead of rally.

Moving on...

I'm sticking with my call that we are going to break down from this rising wedge and head lower toward the end of the week.  How low... I don't know?  Again, we still have that FP of 105.39 spy that will eventually be met... the "when" part is always the toughest one to figure out.

We also have the ritual side of this, which is the fact that the Legatus Pilgrimage is over now, and the market should reverse the direction it was going into the meeting... which was UP.  Let's not forget the release of the new Wallstreet movie too this week.

I'm not buying into this bullishness.  I still believe the market is 95%-100% done with this rally.  Tomorrow needs to break down out of this wedge, if the bears stand any chance.  If not, then we could be looking at a slow grind higher into the November elections.

Maybe we are going up to the DIA 118.16 FP first?  It's times like these that have me questioning my thoughts on the market.  Just when I'm thinking that maybe the bear case is dead, and this rally is for real... that the market finally reverses and heads lower.  I'm at that point now, so I know a top is close.

Will it start tomorrow, or wait for Thursday or Friday?  It should start tomorrow, but again... this bull just doesn't want too die just yet.  But, I'm a patient man and one more day doesn't matter to me...  I know a turn is coming soon.

Red

Weekend Update – Black Monday?

Red
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Monday Update...


We hit the FP of 114.18 spy... now what?

Red

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Will The Market Crash On Monday?

I don't know?  But I do expect heavy selling all week long.  Whether it starts on Monday or waits until after the Fed meeting on Tuesday, is unknown?  But my gut tells me it will start on Monday... after Obama speaks.

Right now the market is looking for more morphine (Quantitative Easing Part Two... ie, MONEY) to keep it alive, but I don't think it's going to get any.

There are too many signs pointing to a sell off, instead of a rally.  There is the new Wallstreet movie (Money Never Sleeps), and the last Wallstreet movie was in... you guessed it, 1987!  The first Wallstreet movie was in... you guessed it too, 1929!  On top of that, the Legatus Pilgrimage ends on Monday the 20th, and this time the market has run up into the meeting.

The last meeting early this year in February the 4th-6th had the market going down for 4 weeks into the meeting.  The opposite is true this time, as the market has been going up for the last 3-4 weeks, into this September 9th-20th Legatus Pilgrimage.

Also, there is the report from Ben Fulford that there might be some announcement from the government concerning the possible default of the international debt that the US owes the rest of the world.  There is also the fact that the Federal Reverse will be bankrupt before the end of the year.

Who knows what other surprises could pop up next week?  We could start WW3... I surely hope not, but anything is possible.  Some event is likely going to be blamed as the catalyst for the coming crash, but it's really just what the charts say.  We are getting ready to start a bunch of wave 3's down, in elliottwave terms.  So the market is ready to sell off anyway, and doesn't need a reason.  But, you know the government is going to create a reason for the sell off.

As for Monday, it's possible that we go up into Obamas' speech at noon (est... I think?).  If so, then the target could be the 114.18 spy FP (possible FP?) that we got Friday morning.  I say "possible" FP, as I don't have a screen shot of it to see if it was a sharp spike to that level (which would indicate a FP), or a steady rise that matches up with the rally that occurred in the ES, which took it to about 1130 before selling off some prior to the open.

If it matches with the ES rising, then it could have been a real print as the 1130 area on the ES could be about 114.18 on the spy... but I can't say for sure?  So, just keep that target in mind if we open up on Monday.  I'd estimate that to be about 1140 spx, falling short of the 1150 area that many others are looking for.

I know that Mr. TopStep (Tim Haefke) stated that the ES could go up to 1148 (about 1154 spx), taking out a ton of buy stops in that area.  Could it happen?  Tim doesn't think so... and neither do I.  I'm sure Tim doesn't follow the FP's like I do, so he doesn't know about the 114.18 FP from Friday.

However, he did mention 2 upside levels that will be the next magnet target should the market want to go up a little more.  The first target he called for his video was 1135.90 ES, and the next one was 1148.10, which he doesn't think will be hit.  I agree with that, and I believe that the lower target of 1135.90 ES would line up nicely with the 114.18 spy FP level.

So, thinking like a wallstreet gangster here... if I were them, I'd take it up to 1135.90 ES (114.18 spy) on Monday morning to squeeze out all the bears that went short on Friday, and then tank it after Obama speaks.  This would trap a lot of bulls expecting QE2 to provide the next rally up, and not allow any bears to get short in a great spot.  All the bears would throw in the towel and go long, expecting a ride to 1150 or 1170 spx.

That breakout would also have the amateur bulls getting long too, while the pro's get short (actually, I think they've been getting short for the last week or so).  As Danny Riley said in one of his video's with Mr. TopStep... when the bears go long, it's time to get short!  I agree 100%!  (P.S... that should be Monday!).

Ok, so that about sums it up... I'm looking for a possible move up to 114.18 spy on Monday, and a sell off the rest of the week.  We still have that 105.39 spy FP from a few weeks ago, which could be the downside target for the first leg down in this move.  After that? Who knows?  We'll cross that road when we get there...

Red

Weekend Update – Wallstreet Never Sleeps

Red
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Thursday Update...

One more push higher, then look out below!

Red

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Tuesday Update...

Wednesday looks like a down day, as even if the market manages to gap up and reach the 1130 level, it's like to fall back down and break the support line from this rising wedge it's in. We are within days of some serious selling I believe. Next week Ben Bernanke is likely so say something on Tuesday that will likely be blamed for the coming sell off. But we all know it's just what's in the technicals...

Red

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It's been awhile...

All of last week I was have computer problems and just realized that I haven't made a post since the last weekend update I did... sorry about that.  But, at least I picked a good week to do it... as this coming week should be pretty exciting.  After much pondering on whether or not they are going to pump a ton of new stimulus money into the market, which could rally it to the DIA 118.16 FP level... I don't see it happening now.

I think that the last week when Bernanke promised to "do whatever it takes" (meaning more stimulus money)... has now run it's course, and the rally is just about over.  The first time it worked for 13 months, and by April it ended.  The rallies in between were more attempts to jump start the market, and only lasted a short while.

This should be the last injection of money by the Federal Reserve gangsters as the Fed will likely be bankrupt by the end of this year.  There is still the planned switch to the newly gold backed Amero dollar, as Ben Fulford reports on it.  The end of the Fiscal year is this September 31st, and in his last report he spoke of the US defaulting on it's international debt.  When or if it really happens is unknown, but if it does... you will see market crash hard.

The new "WallStreet" movie called "Money Never Sleeps" is coming out on September the 24th, just 4 days after the Legatus Pilgrimage ends.  The last Wallstreet movie was in 1987, just around the time period known as "Black Monday"... remember that?

Reinhardt now thinks that we aren't likely too see more stimulus in the third week of September, an my old friend that used too post many comments here also believes that "the high is in" (for the year).  Those of you who have been around awhile will figure out who I'm referring too (hint:  he has a thing with num-bers).

The charts show us that the market is ready to roll over at anytime now.  Next week we should see a move lower, which could be the sell off we are look for, or just the "B" wave down (inside of wave 2 up), with the "C" wave up yet to come.  If so, then it should peak around that September 20th-24th time period.  I'd guess at the triple top level of 1130 spx, or possibly just a little higher (only to take out overhead stops... just before the sell off begins).

Of course we could also just sell off next week with a smaller wave 1 (inside a larger wave 3), with a smaller wave 2 back up the following week... and then the mother of all waves!  A wave 3 of 3 of 3 of etc... etc... etc...  (meaning "ONE BIG CRASH")!

I think that the Democrats that are trying to hold this market up until after the elections in November, but they are going to fail now I believe.  Too many signs point to a final top within the next 2 weeks occurring.  As much as they'd like to keep it up... the Viagra is wearing off now, and no amount more is going to work anymore.  Sometimes it's just needs to go down and rest, and Dow 8300 is the likely resting point for this sick market.

I've been leaning bullish over the last few weeks, ever since that weekly chart (and the daily too) pointed back up on the histogram bars.  It was also around the time that the Fed's pump more money into the market.  At that time period, Reinhardt was still putting up pictures of women that were... how should I say this?  errr... "in a stimulated state of mind".

I wondered why he was think that, as Bernanke already promised more money in the last Fed meeting about 2 weeks ago now.  If he promised it back then, before the Legatus Pilgrimage (and the market rallied hard from it)... then what's left to do after the meeting?  Can you say... nothing? ... as in "let the market fall to pieces".

I'm glad to see him change his opinion on it, as he's been correct too many times when it comes to the market direction before and after a Pilgrimage occurs.  I don't like being on the opposite side of someone who has proven his ability to call the market direction correctly so many times.

So, let's try get a little closer look at next week.  The daily chart is still pointing up, but can roll over at any time now.  The 60 minute chart is still pointing up, but also can roll over at any time now.  (I know, that's not much help... LOL).  My point is this, while the charts are pointing up, the market is in in a rising wedge with ton's of overhead resistance and some of the lightest volume of the year supporting it.

That all spells danger!  Danger Will Robinson... Danger!  (you need to be at least my age to understand that quote).  The triangle forming on the 15 minute chart could gap the market up on Monday, if it breaks out to the upside.  Of course if it breaks down then the market should fall pretty hard from it.  I'm leaning more for a breakout to the upside because of the 60 minute, daily and weekly chart still pointing up.

I've seen them rally all week (like last week), and get all the bears short at the end of the day on a Friday... and then gap it up on them Monday for the squeeze out, which then quickly reverses with no bears left to profit from it.  Just typical manipulation on their part.  Trick the masses, and not allow them to profit from the coming sell off.  That what leads me to believe that we have 1-2 more weeks left before the wave 3's begin.

However, if we do go up on Monday, I think we'll sell off on Tuesday.  Whether or not that is the start of the coming crash or not is still unknown?   It depends on how far down we go?  If we end the week out close to the 105.39 spy FP area, then I think the coming crash has started.

But, if we only sell off a little, and rally back to close the week out slightly down, flat, or even up (I doubt it, but possible), then that leads me to believe we'll see one more push higher to at least the 1130 triple top area.  The time is near though, as we are about to see a big stock market crash coming... and it's likely to surprise a lot of traders too I believe.

Ok, to sum it... I'm leaning more toward a continued move up on Monday, and some selling on Tuesday.  If the selling doesn't go down below the rising channel line now forming (about 1080-1085 area), then a final "C" wave back up into the week after this one is likely.  That would top it out around the end of the Pilgrimage and the release of the new Wallstreet movie.

The other possibility is a sell off down to the 105.39 spy FP by the end of this week (making a wave 1 down, inside a larger wave 3), with the following week retracing part of the down move (making a wave 2 up, inside a larger wave 3 down)... which leaves same time period of the 20th-24th to start the multiple wave 3's down (aka... a "Stock Market Crash").

Hopefully everyone can get positioned short over this coming week, and possibly next week, as the move down is going to be very profitable (for the bears that is... he he he).

Good luck everyone...

Red

Weekend Update – Market Manipulation To Extreme!

Red
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Friday afternoon update...

Looks like I "may" have figured out my computer problem? Let's give it more time first, but it seems to be running stable now.

Red

P.S. Have a good weekend everyone...

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Wednesday update...

No More Taking The Stairs UP!

(I made a mistake thinking today was Memorial Day in the video. Duh... it's Labor Day! Sorry).

Last week is a clear example of how well controlled and manipulated this market really is.  A normal market will take the stairs up (meaning it slowly makes gains every day), and the elevator down (meaning it usually falls up to 6 times as fast going down, when compared to up).  But last week the market took the elevator up too... why?  Was this normal, or manipulation?

Duh!  We all know the answer there... MANIPULATION!  No normal market rallies straight up like we seen last week.  While the market has always been controlled, the level of manipulation today far exceeds that of just as little as 2 years ago.

All this monopoly money that the gangsters are printing has changed the game dramatically.  The little guys don't stand a chance in this rigged game.  It's not the same as playing blackjack in Vegas... it's worst!  Of course we all know that the house wins 95% of the time or more, but at least in that game the house doesn't know what you have in your hands.

In the market, they can see in your hands by the about of open interest on the various strike prices for the expiring option... and they can also see where everyones' "stops" are placed at!  That's like the house looking at your cards in Vegas... absolutely insane!

So why do we continue to play this rigged game?  I dunno... stupid I guess?  While I was calling for a move back up to the FP of 111.17 (spy) last week, I had NO idea that the market would go straight up on a rocket ship like it did.  Talk about total B.S.... that certainly was!

There was NO reason... not fundamentally, technically, or elliottwave that could explain the move up we had last week.  This was done for one reason... to rob the bears!  Many of my online blogger friends were hurt very badly during that ramp job.  I was lucky that I didn't have any positions at the time, but many others did.

There were a few brave one's who were long the market, and they were rewarded greatly.  Being a bear, I just don't have the guts to go long in this depression we are in.  I'll go long when the spy hits 20.16, but in the meantime... I'll just sit out the rallies in between.  LOL

Moving on...

The last video I did I thought that we would sell off on Friday to the 105.39 FP, making a "B" wave down in an ABC move up to the 111.17 FP from many weeks back.  But instead, they decide to skip the "B" wave down and simply go straight up to the 111.17 print first.  That leaves next week to go down to the 105.39 FP level, and then... who knows?

This market is so rigged that virtually impossible to get a clear direction of where the next trend is going to be?  I thought we would go down to the Dow 8300 FP one week, and then the next week I changed opinion to going up to the DIA 118.16 FP... and now I'm clueless as to which one we will hit first?

Of course that's exactly how they planned it... to confuse everyone.  But, knowing the targets (by the FP they give us) we should be able to figure out which one they are going too first by using technically analysis.  However, TA's only work for as long as they allow them to work.

How long is that?  Just about long enough to get ever bull and bear positioned in the market happily, thinking they got the next move figure out... and then BAM, they pull a rabbit out of hat!  I wonder why I keep trying to figure this game out, as every time I think I got it mastered, the rules change.

Such is life I guess.  Walking in a mine field voluntarily isn't the brightest thing too do, but us traders do it every day I guess.  Why do we do it time and time again?  I guess it's just the same reason people buy lottery tickets every week... one day we'll hit the jackpot (or just go broke trying... LOL).

Now to the market...

Clearly, from looking at the charts, you can see that we are overbought on the daily now, as well as the 60 minute chart too.  So yes, we should sell off on Tuesday... but will we?  With the light volume expected all week, due mainly to it being a shorten time period because of Memorial Day on Monday, I'm not expecting a lot traders too be there to buy and sell.

So, if they plan on taking it back down to the 105.39 FP next week, it will be the institutions selling while the little guy is sleeping (just like it always is...), which makes you wonder about the Legatus meeting starting on the 9th?  Are we going to rally into the meeting, and sell off after... or will the 105.39 FP be the low going into it, with a several month rally afterwards?

From a political point of view, I believe the Democrats would like to rally into the November elections.  But, there is still plenty of time to go down to the 8300 print first, and rally the rest of the year.  I look at the weekly chart and it does look ready to go up into positive territory on the histogram bars.  I've said in many video's that I'd like to see several positive bars occur, and then a roll over into the abyss.

You will notice that the weekly chart rallied up to the 20 and 50 day moving average lines and stopped.  There is a ton of overhead resistance beyond the current level, but with Bernanke now pumping more stimulus into the market, and the big institutional gangsters (errr... I mean banksters) sitting on their hands waiting for the "green light" to hit the sell button again... I just don't think that resistance will hold them back if they want to go higher.

So what's the bottom line?  While we are short term overbought, the intermediate term shows the market turning up now.  Of course it could just as easily roll back down at anytime, but for now it appears they plan to rally for awhile.  I can't say it's going to be easy, but again... anything is possible.

However, even if we do go up a little more next week, we should turn around the 12th according to the SpiralDates chart... which would line up with a the Legatus meeting too.  It would give the gangsters enough time to cash their check during the first few days of the Pilgrimage.

Let's also not forget that America could be announcing that it's going to default on it's international debt before the 31st of this month (according to Benjamin Fulford).  If that happens, then we go down... if not, then I guess we go up?  I know that's not much help, but I can see bullish patterns forming now... even though my gut tells me they are going to surprise everyone and tank it hard.

So hang in there bears, I really don't think we are going up too much further next week.  If we get to 1130 area, that would be a triple top... which I don't see it breaking on the first try.  "IF" and that's a big "if", we do continue higher next week, I'd expect it to fall short of that triple top, or go up there and trade sideways for several days baiting all the bulls into thinking it's going to break out from the bull flag it would form... then turn her back down around the 12th.

By the way, the 12th is on a Sunday... so that would imply a "weekend event" to cause a sell off the following week.  What could that be I wonder?  A post 911 bear celebration... maybe?  You know they aren't going to crash it on September the 11th... but the week after is a different story.

If I had to guess (and that all I do anyway), I'd say we chop around that 1130 level next week doing nothing be eroding the time value of any options the bulls and bears have.  We might even do an intraday stop swept just above that level on September the 10th to clear out the bears just before the plunge.

Anyway gang, I'm just speculating here, as I don't know what they have planned... or where the market is going next week.  So I'll close for now and wish everyone success next week.

Red

The Bear Squeeze…

Red
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1,012

Thursday Update...

Red

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Wow, what a rally!

I have too admit that I was doubting the bulls there for awhile, and was ready to eat crow on my call of a move to the FP of 111.17 spy... but today's action makes it look like that level could still be hit.  Of course that doesn't mean we are going straight up there... without a pullback, and we may have that pullback this Friday?

We had a FP of 105.39 spy today that I seen on my charts, but it disappeared too quickly to screen capture it.  Fortunatly, Anna caught it and here is the link for it.  Woody and Shaan also seen it, so it's a downside target for sure... the "when" is just something I'm guessing at.

Because the Non-Farm Payroll is out Friday morning, I get the feeling that it will be bad... which will cause the sell off to the FP level.  The other reason is the open interest on the calls and puts for this Friday's opx... which leads me to believe they will pin it between 105 and 106 area.  So the FP of 105.39 is spliting the difference, and may be the ideal spot for the crooks (errr.... market makers) to close it, so they don't have to pay out on all the "puts" that expire this week.

Of course this was just a normal technical bounce and the fact that opx was this Friday had nothing to do with (and the Sun is really a big ball of ice too... LOL).  We all know the truth there... Yes, we needed this rally to squeeze out the shorts, but the timing seems to happen around opx a lot?

Ok, from looking at the charts from today, I see a bull flag on the 60 and 15 minute... meaning that tomorrow could gap up quickly in the morning to squeeze out today's new shorts, but it should turn back down and close flat or lower.  That's a big "could", and not a "will" gap up... as the market is very overbought on the short term right now.

Usually a doji will follow such a large up day, but with the Initial Claims and Continuing Claims out in the morning tomorrow, the market could just reverse and gap down?  There is no way to know if the numbers are going to be good or bad?  One the FP tells us that they are going down at some point soon, and it's usually within 1-2 days on the intraday FP's.  Will this one be different?  I don't know?

But right now the open interest, and the FP tells me that we are likely going to hit 105.39 by this Friday's close.  No guarantees... on speculation on my part.  The charts are saying that we go up to finish the bull flag, but we did pop into the close today... so maybe that fulfilled the pattern?

There isn't any set rule on how high you go from a bull flag, only that it will likely pop higher at some point.  Well, we popped higher into the close... is that it?  The 15 minute charts aren't giving us any clues as they are rising up toward the zero level on the histogram bars, but the Full STO's are almost overbought.

Then the 60 minute chart is about peaked out now, and could turn down at any point.  Since it's the more powerful charts, that leads me to believe that any pop higher tomorrow won't last and the day should end with a doji or down.  The daily chart is pointing up now, so that tells me that we will likely go up next week, but that doesn't mean we won't sell off for a "B" wave down, if we are in an ABC (wave 2) up now... with a final target of the 111.17 spy FP level.

Of course this assumes the daily chart doesn't turn back down if we sell off on Friday... which I don't think it will on only a "one day sell off".  That would leave the 3 day weekend to calm down the bad NFP numbers and a rally back up next week could happen.

I'm basing this on the charts I see now, and things could changes of course, but I think that we need a positive close on the weekly chart before a large sell off.  Having 4 straight weeks down without an UP week is rare, and if we close down this week then that will make week four.

Ok, that's about all I got for now... good luck everyone.

Red

Weekend Update – US To Default On Debt

Red
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172

Tuesday Update...

Red

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Monday Update... it's not looking good for the bulls!

Red

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Before I go over the stock market I'd like to take some time and go over the picture behind the scenes...

Upon reading Benjamin Fulford's latest report, it appears that the Amero dollar is still being pushed forward, and really is going to happen. I honestly don't see any other way to pay down the US debt other then to create a new currency.

In this plan the Amero will be backed by gold, and the current US dollar will be replaced. The ratio will be 2/1, meaning you will get one Amero dollar for every two US dollars you currently have. Will it really happen? I don't know, but a lot of white hat's (good guys) in the Pentagon are trying to make it so.

With all the debt created by the Federal Reverse Gangsters, it's going to be the only way left to save America. But, that doesn't mean we won't be saved from financial collapse, as that's still going to happen regardless of whether or not the new currency is created, or we keep the current one.

According to Fulford, many white hats are slowly and secretly arresting the gangsters one by one. This is being done quietly to avoid the America people rising up and starting a civil war... which the gangster would love as it would allow them to declare marital law, therefore giving them their power back. This is something the white hats are trying to avoid.

Remember, these crooked gangsters want caustic and disasters to happen. They created them on purpose as it gives them power to control us unknowing scared little sheep. The most important thing you can do, is too inform everyone about their plans, and then they can't do them.

So please do spread the word about this by emailing your friends and having them watch video's on youtube about these crooks. The more the sheep (us... as in you and me) become informed, the harder it is for the wolves (gangsters... aka Federal Reverse Illuminati Nazi's, member's of the Bilderberg Group, and those attending the Legatus Pilgrimage), to control and kill us.

You know, I started this blog to write about the stock market. I just never knew how much it was manipulated and controlled by "The Power's That Be" (TPTB). So when I go off subject like this and talk about the gangsters plans, it might not seem related to the market... but it is!

So hopefully you don't think all this stuff is just B.S. as I'm not the one making it up... I'm only reporting it, and spreading the news about it. If you've been brainwashed by the mainstream news all your life, hopefully you are now more aware of the what's really going on in the world we live in.

"The Truth Will Set YOU Free"... so spread it!

_______________________________________________________________________

Moving on to the technicals...

From looking at the clear "option expiration" Friday manipulation, I'd say that Monday isn't likely to go up much further. It's likely to be a "pause" day, or flat... meaning up and down throughout the day, but closing with a spinning top, or "doji" candle.

On Tuesday we could get a down day, followed by an up day on Wednesday? But overall, I just have that feeling that the direction isn't going to be straight down... yet! Meaning, I'm looking for some choppy action next week, to lure in some bulls and shakeout some bears.

With the daily chart curling back up, and the put/call ratio too high for another sell off to happen, the market is likely to have an upside bias next week... especially early on. But by Thursday and Friday, we could see some selling going into a 3-day holiday weekend (Memorial Day).

I'm not sure on that, so we'll have to wait until those days get here... and see what the job's data comes in at. Remember, we still have that FP of 111.17 spy, and the FP of Dow 8300... of which, they will both be hit. There is also the September 9th-20th Legatus Pilgrimage, and we still don't know it we are going into that time period making a low in the market, or a high?


If we rise up to the FP of 111.17 into the meeting, then that would be a high... meaning that they would sell off the market after the gangsters cash their checks (from selling at the top in April, while telling the public to continue buying of course), and funnel the money out the country through the Vatican secret banks so they aren't exposed or tracked.

This move up would also be some sort of wave 2 up, with the following down move being an assortment of wave 3's... depending on how you count the waves? Regardless of the count, the next wave down would be a very powerful move.

Now, the other count is more bearish on the short term as it has us only going up to the 1070-1080 area, making a wave 4 up, with wave 5 down to take out the 1040 area and possibly the 1010 low (although I think it won't take it out on the first hit, but instead bounce back up for a larger wave 2).

Here's something else to think about, according to Fulford, the US is going to default on it's debt by this September 31st (actual quote below):

Despite its fearsome appearance, the massive US saber-rattling is mainly a negotiating tactic aimed at ensuring the best possible deal in the upcoming US bankruptcy proceedings. The US will be forced to default on its international obligations by the time of its September 31st fiscal year end.

Even the cool-aid drinking, brainwashed “journalists” and “economists” who believe the corporate media’s false reality must be suffering from cognitive dissonance at this point. The US government’s fiscal deficit is so huge now that even if all countries that have a trade surplus with the US invest their entire surplus in US government bonds, there will still be an annual shortfall of about $1 trillion. This is being made up by Federal Reserve Board printing presses but that is only a stop-gap measure. Any rational analysis even of the cooked data provided by the US corporate government will reveal the situation to be unsustainable.

Now to me that looks like the Hindenburg Omen coming late this September!  So let's think about this for moment and try to piece together what has already played out, versus what we think is going to play out.  I was assuming, or guessing that we would go down into the Legatus Pilgrimage, and then rally coming out it with Stimulus package number whatever (we all know that they have secretly many stimulus packages into the market that wasn't reported to the public).

Even Reinhardt has purposed the idea that more stimulus is what's likely to happen after the pilgrimage (although he is just speculating just like I am).  But, Bernanke just spoke on Friday and said that the Fed's would inject as much stimulus as needed into the market (errr... economy, but we know he means "the wallstreet gangsters").

Ok, if he's already "let the cat out of the bag"... what can they do to stimulate the market after the Legatus meeting is over with?  Let's assume that we are going up to the FP of 111.17 spy in the next few weeks, and it's based on Bernanke's promise of more stimulus.  What's going to rally the market after that?

Isn't wallstreet known to "buy the rumor, sell the fact"?  Ok, well the rumor is that more money will be injected into the market if needed, and the fact is... it's already being pumped in there right now!  And if we see a move up to the FP of 111.17 spy, then we'll know for sure that the money is already in the market.

Remember the link about George Soro's selling everything he own's in the US market?  Do you really think we are going to make a bottom into the pilgrimage and George is going to buy up all the assets with the Dow at 8300?  Or is it more likely that he sold out in April-June and is waiting for a real bottom to happen before coming back to the US market?

This guy is a Billionaire and can't unload everything in only one day... it takes weeks and maybe months to unload that much stock without crashing the market.  Therefore, logic tells me that he's looking for a lot lower price then Dow 8300 to rob the America public again (err... I mean buy up stocks a heavily discounted prices).

I think he knows that this market is going to fall off a cliff in the next few months, and has moved his money out the country into whatever else is safer?  These guys control the market and know ahead of time what is going to happen.  I'm really leaning toward a move up now... into the September 9th-20th time frame and then a huge wave 3 down to wipe everyone out.

Right now, there are too many bears out there, and I think the only way to kill them off is to take it higher then everyone expects.  Since most people are now expecting the 1070-1080 area to be the target, and then wave 3 of 3 of etc... to begin, let's fool them all and take it up to 111.17 spy.

It makes sense too me, as it will allow the daily chart time to go back into positive territory before rolling over late in September, into a large set of wave 3's down.  I could be totally wrong on this, as most people are now calling for the next leg down to occur next week or the following... but it just seems too predictable, and when it's easy to read "it doesn't happen".

Plus, there is this article by ZeroHedge that states that Goldman Sachs is now publicly bearish and calling for a possible move down to 900 spx.  Well, since Goldman is full of crooked gangsters, I can deduct that the position there are now taking is "Long", as they tell the public the market is crashing.  If they are short term bearish, I want to be short term bullish... because they alway lie!

Remember, they are "the Fox" and we are "the Sheep"!  They are trying to steal your money, so don't believe anything they say... I certainly don't.

Ok, that about enough for this weekend post.  Sometimes I get long-winded and talk too much, so I'll close for now and wish all you bulls and bears good luck next week.

Red

Rally Time?

Red
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471

Video Update for Friday...

Red

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or just a relief bounce...

After selling off for 4 days straight, the market needed a breather, and that's exactly what we got today.  As for tomorrow, as long as the initial claims and continuing claims numbers meet or beat expectations, the market should go a little higher.

I'm not saying that it will for sure, but it's likely to push up some as the 60 minute chart is in rally mode now.  The 107 spy area is the likely target, where it will find resistance again from the larger falling channel.  If it makes it back up there, then I expect that area to stop the rally and then continue the selling next week (and possibly Friday too?).

The GDP number on Friday could be a non-event, and then the market would just trade sideways to up a little.  But, if it's really bad, then we could see a huge sell off on Friday.  There is no way to tell right now, but the trend is still down.  We just have to wait out this relief rally for a few days.

So, if you are short, just be prepared for a small bear shakeout before another leg down occurs.  There is still nothing bullish in these charts, but the market has come down pretty far and pretty quickly.  So, a bounce is to be expected.  It could last just for tomorrow, or a few more days?  There is no way to tell just yet, but I don't think it will last into next week.

Good luck to all the bulls and bears out there...

Red

Weekend Update – The Wave 3’s Are Coming!

Red
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114

Tuesday Update...

Sorry gang, I had a busy afternoon. Just a video update again, as I'm to tired to write up a new post. Plus, not much has changed, except we are one more day closer to the coming crash.

Red

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Monday Update...

We hit our target area of 1080 in the morning reversed hard off of it.  That might be all we're going to see?  If you're already short, I'd stay that way even if it rallies tomorrow or Wednesday.  People are now talking about the Hindenburg Omen, and that it was confirmed on Friday.

We'll, if I had to guess I'd say we are going to see it happen this coming Friday as panic sets in.  We could open up tomorrow with a gap down very easily.  Will it happen?  I don't know, but any rally is just a shorting opportunity now that we reached 1080 and technically fulfilled a wave 2 retracement back up.

We are in a period now where the best thing to do is to hold on to your shorts and not try to swing trade in and out of the market, as you might not get another good re-entry spot again.  If we bounce any at all, the 1070 level is now going to be resistance, and would be another good shorting spot.

Ok, that's about it for now.  As I said in the video's below, after we rally up for the wave 2 the rest is a down hill ride.  We hit our target area today, so now it's time to look out below...

Red

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Lookout below, an avalanche is coming!

Yes folks, the much anticipated Wave 3 of 3 of 3, etc... is here now.  The next few weeks should see the market fall down to a low of Dow 8300, and it will probably end around the Legatus Pilgrimage meeting.  It could bottom in the middle of it, but I'm leaning more toward the end of it... maybe even the end of September.

After the bottom is in (not the final bottom of course), a major wave 2 back up should happen and continue until the end of the year I believe.  Why so long?  Because I think the Illuminati members coming out of the Legatus meeting will implement another Stimulus package to rally the market.

This will be done as a political move by the Obama gangsters to try and win the democratic majority with the November elections coming up for the house and senate.  Anna and I were discussing this and it makes a lot of sense from a political stand point.  There is also the possibility that Obama will extend the Bush tax credits that are due to expire at the end of the year.

This should rally the market higher, as many long term investors won't have too sell this year to keep from being taxed at a higher rate on long term capital gains.  The republicans will be happy too, which would help Obama too.

Moving on the technical side of things...

The TA's say that we are rising back up the 60 minute chart, and should continue to rise until Tuesday or Wednesday.  At that point, I expect us to fall into a minute wave 3, of major wave 3 of primary wave 3... which is the bulls' worst nightmare!

So gang, I've said just about everything I can think of in the video's above.  I think we will rally a small amount into Wednesday and then fall off cliff after that.  Maybe 1080 area, or a little higher... but regardless of how high it makes it, Thursday and Friday should be heavy selling.  Just look for the 60, 30, and 15 charts to peak out around late Tuesday or early Wednesday would be my guess.

Then hop on the inter-tube (or ski's for the brave) and ride it down the snow slope from hell...

Red

P.S.  I've been waiting for this wave 3 ever since I started this blog.  It's finally here and I don't know how to act... it's that ironic?

The Bears Win Today!

Red
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1,090

Just a simple video update for Friday. I'll have more on my weekend report by Sunday night. Enjoy the weekend everyone....

Red

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But don't count the bulls out yet...

Well gang, I'm bummed out.  I missed the call yesterday, as I really expected it to pop up to 111.17 first... and then sell off.  I guess that will be the high for next Thursday or Friday now, as I certainly don't see that happening tomorrow.

That's the only problem with the FP's... you never know when they are going to hit.  But, at least some of you were able to make some profit on the move down.  I know Jim said he was 40% short, and I'm sure many of the rest of you were also positioned short.

For me, I'm looking forward to the next turn date as I think it will make today's move down look chump change.  If it is a wave 3 down, then it's going to be really ugly!  That would mean that we are now going down into the Legatus Pilgrimage, instead of up.

So, coming out of the September 9th-20th meeting you can expect some type of new stimulus package to rally the market back up.  How high is anyone's guess.  Let's first see if we are indeed in Primary wave 3 down or not?  With that DIA 118.16 print still not fulfilled, it is still possible that they run the market up into the end of the year and hit that level before ending P2.

Yes, it seems highly unlikely now, but anything is possible.  Getting back to tomorrow, I'd say we have a quiet day ending flat or up at the close.  Remember, tomorrow is opx day and they will likely pin the spy where it benefits them the most.

So, as long as the double bottom holds, I'd expect a move up into the afternoon session.  I seen an afterhours print of 109.79 spy, but that could have been a late fill.  It seems pretty unlikely that we rally that high after a move down like today, but again... anything is possible.

The 15 minute chart ended today forming a bear flag and with the histogram tower rolling over.  I would expect it to sell off quickly in the morning, maybe down to retest the double bottom, and then roll back up throughout the rest of the day.  The 60 minute chart will be rising up too, supporting the 15... so that should give the market a little lift into the afternoon.  Add in light volume, no more economic data or news, and traders leaving early for the weekend... and you have a decent chance of closing positive tomorrow.

Next week will be something I'll cover in the weekend report...

Red

Almost There…

Red
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70

Video Update for Thursday...

I think the top is just about in now gang.  I see one more pop higher tomorrow... to the 111.17 FP level, and then the selling to begin.  I don't have any idea if it's going to be a really big move down or if that will be next week on the turn date of the 26th-27th, but I see some serious selling coming soon... be ready.

Red

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To the top of Wave 2 that is...

(Direct link to video, incase it doesn't show above... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mk-YBJnczy4)

And then larger wave 3 of (Possibly) Primary wave 3 is ready to start.  It's the wave that you might see once every 90 years or so... well, at least to the magnitude this one is!  While I'm not positive that we are in Primary wave 3 down yet, as many others still think we are in Primary wave 2 up.

And I can't rule that out, as I still have unfulfilled upside FP of DIA 118.16, but they is no telling when we will hit it.  Could be next year or longer, who knows?  But, the charts tell me that we are likely to head down into the Legatus meeting instead of up.

Maybe they cashed their checks back in April, and are now waiting for any great buying opportunity to happen.   Certainly they could find some great bargains in the market if we go down to Dow 8300 into the meeting next month.

Think of it like this, if you tank the market now (when no one is expecting it), then you can rally it in October, when everyone is looking for a crash to occur... and steal the masses' money of course.  LOL

So to sum it up...

I see a move up to the FP of 111.17 spy tomorrow, and then a possible flat to slightly down move into Friday.  However, should they not be able to spin the data positive on Thursday morning, it could start the wave 3 down before the end of the week.  We know they want to hold it there to squeeze out the bears letting their puts expire worthless, but can they?

Holding this wave 3 back isn't going to be easy too do... especially if the reports on Thursday are really bad.  But, you should never underestimate the power they have to control this market.  As I mentioned at the end of the video, there is a turn date on the 26th-27th that looks very powerful according to the chart on the spiraldates.com site.

There is a less powerful turn date on the 19th, which would make more sense since this is opx week.  Maybe we peak at 111.17 tomorrow and slide back down to 109 area by Friday?  That's not a big move down, but would reflect a small reversal as indicated by the chart only having a "1" spiraldates score.

However, I don't fully understand the chart, and the "score" could simply mean that it has "x" amount of chances of turning on that date, but doesn't indicate the strength or power of the move occurring.  So, if a turn date has a "1" for it's score, and it does actually turn on that date, the intensity of the move isn't known or reflected in the chart.  Hopefully that makes sense to you?

That's all for now...

Red

Weekend Update…

Red
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88

Monday Update...

Not much to add, but I thought I'd just share a few feelings mainly. The charts could go either way at this point. Be careful in both directions...

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So what's next you ask?

This coming week should be a tricky week as they will likely rally up to squeeze the bears at some point, before finally falling off a cliff into a large wave 3 down.  Early Monday morning could produce a sell off to fulfill the bear flag that was made during Thursday and Friday's trading session.

Should it play out, then I could see us falling to around 1070 to fill that gap made on the 22nd of the month.  That would also fulfill the FP of 107.35 spy that we still haven't hit exactly.  While we did come close with a 107.59 print, we might not have gotten close enough to call that print "fulfilled"?

If we do fall, I expect it to be bought up and a rally to start with an upside target of around 1100, before we start back down again.  This is opx week, and they will squeeze some bears out before taking it down really hard into wave 3, which could start as early as this coming Thursday or Friday.  While they could also delay it until next week, I wouldn't be surprised if they start it this week.

In the past, they would pretty much have all the positions closed out by Wednesday of opx week, and Thursday and Friday would just trade sideways with light volume, closing out the week with little movement past Wednesday.  But that was during the last years' run up to the April high.  The market was trending higher then, and the stimulus money was still being pumped into the market.

Now the market is trending down and the stimulus money is being taken out of the market.  Traders are now more on edge and quick to hit the sell button, should the usual data on Thursday and Friday not be viewed as good.  I've noticed that Friday's haven't been so boring ever since we peaked in April.

We have the Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, and Philadelphia Fed data on this Thursday... all of them should move the market.  So, if we rally for 3 days straight, and hit the 1100 area target on Wednesday, then Thursday could send the market back down again.

However, if we don't rally ahead of that data, then I would expect the data to be spun as positive, and therefore cause a relief rally to put in wave 2 back up.  But, I'm leaning more toward a rally starting on Monday, after a possible early morning drop to key support and gap fill around 1070 spx.

So, down to 1070 Monday morning, then turn back up and run for 3 days to 1100 or so... and finally start the wave 3 back down on Thursdays' disappointing data.  Will it happen like that?  Probably not, but that what I see in the charts right now.

Of course there is always the possibility that we continue selling off all next week, with very little bounces.  But the fact that it's opx week tells me they will likely squeeze these new shorts out of the market before tanking her hard.  I just don't know if it will start late this week or be pushed off to next week.  That daily chart looks oversold right now, and could take longer then I expect to reset back up and be overbought again.  We'll just have too take it one day at a time.

For now, I give it a 50/50 chance of the bear flag playing out Monday morning, but whether it does or not, I expect a rally to start back up toward the 1100 area asap.  Too many bears on board now, they aren't in the business of giving them a free lunch.  If you are short and haven't sold yet, you might get your chance early Monday morning to get out.

If you can wait out the ride back up to 1100, then great... but most bears will likely exit and sit on the sidelines until another shorting opportunity is available.  Just be careful there bears as nothing goes straight down.  However, with that being said... this large wave 3 coming should be a bear feast.  I hope everyone is ready and makes a killing from it.

Red

Time For A Bear Nap…

Red
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41
Time For A Bear Nap…

But next week should make the Bears' Day!

Ok gang, it looks like we came close enough to the 107.35 SPY FP from last week to fulfill it.  We hit 107.59 on the opening gap down and rallied hard from that level.  This tells me that the short term bottom is in, and we should rally tomorrow and early next week too.

However, this was simply a "tremor" warning us of the "earthquake" coming in the market very soon.  So far, it's looking like mid to late next week could be the start of wave 3 down of wave 3 down... meaning I think we completed wave 1 down of wave 3 down today at the morning low.

(I'm having problems with the video showing up, with the embed code?  However it's working by going to the YouTube page at... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_o-e2eMVE0)

So, next week should have us going up with a wave 2 inside wave 3 down.  While I don't know when we are going to top out, or if we already have, I do know that the next big move down is going to have a lot more then just 1-2 days of selling.  It's going to be a very steep decline down.

I believe that it's going to start next week, but again... that weekly chart could easily push back up and delay the move down until the Legatus meeting.  In other words, I'm not sure yet if we are going down to Dow 8300 into the meeting, or if they trick us all and rally this thing up higher in front of the meeting?

I've seen them do it before, so don't get yourself convinced that the move down is coming for sure next week.  It could be extended another week or two.  Let the charts tell you where we are going.  Right now, I think we are going up tomorrow or flat.

Then well see what next week brings us after tomorrow's close.  Keep your eye's open for FP's as they've been very accurate here lately.  I'd like to know the upside target for next week, and they might just be nice and tell us.  If you catch, let know and I'll posted it.

Red

A Very Bearlishess Day!

Red
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408
A Very Bearlishess Day!

The bears got feed well today, but will it continue?

And the answer is... "YES", it will continue!  Yippee!  It's great to be a bear right now, so I hope everyone was already positioned well for today's sell off.  For tomorrow I expect a "pause" day, even ending slightly up... but not much.  After such a big down day, it's normal to have the next day flat while the market disgusts the news.

But Friday... look out below!  I don't think any news can cause Friday to be some big rally day.  No trader in his right mind is going to hold over the weekend.  While they can fudge the Initial Claims and Continuing Claims tomorrow, some how I think the CPI and Core CPI data that is released on Friday will be another reason to sell.

Remember, we still have the 107.35 spy FP Anna caught about a week ago and the 107.12 spy FP that I caught about 2 weeks ago.  So you can expect to see at least the 107.35 print before we have a wave 2 (or B) wave back up into next week.

So, will we hit that target in the morning tomorrow?  Or will tomorrow open flat or slightly down and choppy around all day finally closing slightly up or even?  Odds are that the day will close green... how much is another story?  Lot's of people went short, and they usually will try to squeeze a few of them out before the next leg down.

Now this is just based on the past, and it certain could gap down and go to the 107 area first, and then rally back the rest of the day.  If so, I would suggest everyone close out your shorts and reload when the charts get overbought again.

Just don't forget that next week is opx week and there should be some rally up early in the week to squeeze out the new shorts in the market.  But, if it gets overbought by mid-week then we could sell off into opx.  If that happens then it would be a wave 3 down, and it could be the start of the move toward Dow 8300?  We could be there by the September 9th-20th date.

In that case, the Legatus meeting would be the bottom, just like the one was on February the 4th-6th... when the bottom hit on the 5th at 1044.50 spx.  You remember that one?  I certainly do!  It's too early to say for sure that we are going down into the meeting, instead of up... as it's only been one day down now.

Let's see how the next 2 days work out, and especially how next week plays out.  I'll just say that I expect tomorrow to give the bears another chance to reload short.  Just wait for that 60 minute chart to reset itself, and get overbought again.  It might not even put in but a few positive histograms... if any?  It's looking bad right now, but never under estimate the crookedness of the government to surprise the bears.  Just be on the look out for clues... (aka FP's)

Good luck tomorrow gang...

Red

One More Day UP…

Red
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81

Is all I see...

Gang, I think tomorrow will go up and hit the 113.02 spy FP that Anna caught at 8-9am Tuesday morning.  I see the same print in the afterhours session again.  This confirms to me that we are going to hit that target tomorrow sometime.  After that, I think we will sell off on Thursday and Friday... possibly hitting that other FP of 107.35 from a week or so back.

But, if we hit that target on Friday, get out of your shorts.  The weekly is still pointing up, and next week is opx week.  Both of those factors mean we will likely have a bullish week into opx Friday.  You know how they like to squeeze the shorts during that period.

However, the week after opx could be the start of something beautiful... if you're a bear of course 🙂  While it could chop sideways a little more and even be pushed out right up until the September 9th start of the Legatus meeting, it could still start to sell off some before it.

The charts will give us clues when we get there, but for tomorrow I expect a move up to 113.02 and then selling on Thursday and Friday.  I'm keeping this post short as I'm tired and today was my birthday too.  I'm 46, look like 36, and feel like 56... LOL

Red

Weekend Update…

Red
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Weekend Update…

Monday update (for Tuesday)...

Nothing really has changed today, so I see no reason to make a new post.  The market is just waiting on the Fed's meeting at 2:30 pm est tomorrow.  After that, we should see some volatility in the market.  Which way is anyone's guess at this point.  I'd be afraid to go short with such light volume, and I'd be more afraid to go long because the market is in a topping process right now.

I certainly don't know how much further we have to go up, but until it shows a clearer picture, staying out of it is much safer.  As you can clearly see, the daily chart is still going up, and so is the weekly.  Until at least the daily starts to roll over, I just can't see any selling sticking.

Even if you miss the first wave down, getting short on the wave 2 retracement top is a better spot to be at anyway.  So, be patience bears... and let the smoke clear after the Fed meeting.  Sometimes the first move is a fake one.  Not always of course, but a quick move down after the meeting could be bought back up by the dip buyers.  It might be best to wait a little awhile before making a move.

Either way, a big move is coming soon... down or up is still unknown.  I still feel that we will go down to that 107.35 FP sometime this week, but I also think we won't start a serious sell off until early September.

Red

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Back to business as usual...

Yes, it seems that some things change and others stay the same.  The market is the one that stays the same, while the overall economy changes from bad to worst.  No matter how bad the unemployment is... it's just ignored.  There's just no worry in the market place, as it's totally disconnected from the real world.  So, the rally will likely continue.

But don't worry bears, your day will come... and soon.  First however, I think we will head on down to the 107.35 spy FP sometime next week.  Will it be after the Fed meeting on Tuesday?  Who knows?  If the market rallies up into the meeting, then I'd say yes...  but if it falls into the meeting, then we would expect a rally out of it.

While I still don't know if we are going up to DIA 118.16 into the Legatus pilgrimage in September, or down to the DOW 8300 print... the meeting will be a turning period.  I have to say that I'm bearish next week, as I'm still looking for 107.35 spy to be hit, but after that... I'll have too re-evaluate.

The weekly chart really should put a few positive histogram bars in, before it rolls over again.  Of course it doesn't have too, but my feelings are that it will... and that's mainly because of the timing of the issue.  The pilgrimage is just a month away now, and that's just enough time to put in a few positive weeks.

Because the market has rolled over on the month chart now, I don't think they will have the money available to take it back up if they go down to the 8300 dow print first.  Once this market finally starts to head down that low, I don't think we will see the April high again for quite some time.

I have many down side prints, and even without them... the stimulus money has run out.  Even if they throw more money at the market, it's not going to have the same effect as it did in March of 2009.  The most we could expect is a wave 2 back up to put in a lower high... not a new bull market.

Plus, look at this from a political point of view.  Hold the market up until September, as that's only one month away from the November elections.  Lot's of campaigning will be all over the news, as both sides run ad's 24/7... which means that a market that is selling off hard won't get as much air time as it normally would.

The ol' "look here at my right hand, while I'm robbing you with my left" distraction.  The public won't pay too much attention as the market sells off.  The media will say it's just an overdue correction.  Spin, spin, spin...  you know the game by now.

So that you all don't fall for the bear trap next week, remember the election is right around the corner.  I think most people have us pulling back to the 1090 area, and then rallying higher.  But, I believe the 1070 area will be hit... mainly because they told us it will.  DUH!

Besides that, the 1090 area is too obvious.  It would only allow the bulls a better spot to go long.  Not many bears would go short at that level, as it's not a major break of the horizontal support line coming in there.  But, if you break that support, then the bears will jump on and the bulls will sell out.

Of course once the 107.35 spy print is hit, I expect it to reverse back up and squeeze the bears out... which should also give it enough fuel to take out the 1130 area and probably the 1150 area too.  Let's also not forget that we are 2 weeks away from August option expiration.

If you go down next week, get a bunch of bears short, then you know they will rally into the follow opx week... making all the "puts" expire worthless.  Same game, different month.  As much as we'd like to believe that the market isn't manipulated, anyone reading this blog long enough knows that I've given you plenty of proof that it "IS" 100% controlled.

While they still follow what the charts say, whenever they are at the end of an up or down move... they can always stretch it out a little bit longer then you might expect.  That's how they stay rich... by tricking you out of your hard earned dollars.

Every move is planned out months and years in advance folks.  That's what the Legatus Pilgrimage's and Bilderberg meetings are about.  It's up to us to figure it out of course, but never forget to expect the unexpected... in this case, a hard rally back up, after a sell off to the 1070 area.

That would trick a lot of bulls and bears I do believe.  I'm still 70-80% bears for next week, as I was for this past Friday too.  But after the FP of 107.35 (or 107.12?) is hit, I'll probably be leaning bullish at that time.  Unless some other clues come up that change my outlook, I'm expecting the 1130 area to be taken out with a run higher to take out the next major resistance at 1150 spx.

How high, I don't know? But it's going to be more about the time factor then the actual price level.  I expect the top to be put in right before or during the pilgrimage (which again is... September 9th-20th).  Then I'll start looking for the move down to DOW 8300 to happen.

Ok, for Monday I see us going up and possibly hitting the 1131 level ahead of the Fed meeting on Tuesday.  But at some point during the week we should see a move down to the 1070 area.  Probably after the meeting, but that's just guessing.  Either way, a move down like that would give the bears a nice dinner to eat.  Just don't drop the fish in your mouth when you look at your reflection in the water, thinking there is a bigger fish just below you.

Good luck everyone.

Red

Special Video Update…

Red
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65

Time to piece it all together...

Ok, I did some brain storming and I see 2 possible outcomes ahead.  One has us going up to DIA 118.16 and topping out around September 9th-20th as that's when the Legatus Meeting is happening for this fall.  The last meeting was February 4th-6th, 2010... and that's when we bottomed out.  They injected stimulus package part two, and up the market went until the April high.

So, do we go up first... maybe?  But that would setup the market for a huge crash down, from a much higher level.  While it's possible to go up into the Legatus Pilgrimage this fall, I tend to think we are going down into that time frame, and will hit the 8300 print during that event.

Once we hit it, we should go back up for a wave 4 for a little while, and then back down again into the December 7th time frame.  This would put the SPX at 725 or so, and should complete wave 5 down of a larger wave 1 move.  We should go up into next year, but at some point within the next few years, we are going to reach our final bottom of 20.16 SPY.  (How's that for scary?)

So, when will DIA 118.16 be hit, and will it?  Once inflation comes into play, we could see Dow 38,000 like Mahendra predicts.  Who knows that far down the line?  But for now, let's focus on tomorrow and the next few weeks first.

Tomorrow is a huge day in the market, and should it be bad jobs data then I could easily see the 107 area FP hit all in one day.  I'm 70-80% bearish right now, but only based on my gut feelings (which are wrong a lot... LOL), not because the charts, which still look bullish.  Plus the fall pilgrimage could be a high this time... not a low.  And don't forget that the DIA 118.16 will eventually play out.  Will we do it now, while we are close to it?  Or, is it for next year some time?

I'm leaning toward the downside first, with the 107 FP being tomorrow's target.  This is just speculation here folks... the charts are still bullish.  If we go down, then I'd expect a bounce at that level.  At that point I'd have too look at the charts again to see if we are going to continue down, or turn back up and go for 118.16 dia.

If we go up tomorrow, then we could be going to the 118.16 print into the September 9th-20th time frame.  The charts can roll over at any time right now.  They are still bullish, but at extreme levels right now.  This is a very tricky place to be in, as that weekly chart tells me that we are going up to 118.16 FP first... which would set up a once in a lifetime shorting opportunity during the fall pilgrimage.

But other things tell me we are going to sell off first.  I have no idea which one is right, but I cover both in the video... and focus on the bearish case the most.  Just don't rule out the bullish case here, as the charts are not supporting my bearish case right now.

So be prepared to go long up to dia 118.16 into September the 9th-20th... should the charts push up higher.  I'm bearish by nature, and it clouds my judgment sometimes... so don't take again as "written in stone"...

Good luck to everyone...

Red

Up Or Down Next?

Red
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132
Up Or Down Next?

WEDNESDAY UPDATE (for Thursday, August 5th, 2010)

Well,

I'm officially annoyed, are you?

Red

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I have NO Idea...

Sorry folks, but today end with a lot of mixed signals.  The 60 minute chart is finally rolling over as the histogram bars are now at the zero mark and ready to cross down.  But, the overall price level simply traded sideways to slightly down.  That's call a "Bull Flag" pattern, and could easily play out tomorrow morning.

However, when a pattern fails, it commonly makes a big move in the opposite direction... meaning down!  We still have the FP prints of 107.12 spy and 107.35 from last week, but we don't know when they are going to play out?  If we start back down tomorrow, then we could easily hit that target by this Friday.

But, that daily chart is still rising right now, and the weekly is also pushing up higher too.  While the daily is overbought, it's still not showing any signs of turning back down yet.  Some people have August 6th as a turn date, so we could chop around here until then.

I could easily see a move down into tomorrow morning, and then a rally back into the afternoon.  With that 60 minute chart just now getting ready to go negative, I think it will only put in a small tower below zero and rise back up into tomorrow's close.  This would allow it to put in a smaller histogram tower above zero, forming a negative divergence on the chart.

That would set up Thursday as a possible big down day as the 60 rolls back down in the morning on the bad jobs data.  By that time, the daily could also be rolling over a little too.  But understand this, it is common to see a higher price level with a second lower high on the histogram tower of any chart.  Meaning... while we could sell off early tomorrow morning, the afternoon rally could push us up toward that 1131 level (or more), as it squeezes all the shorts that just piled on.

Be cautious about going short right now, as no selling is likely to stick until the daily chart rolls over.  That might not happen until this Friday... or even next week?  With the weekly pushing up the daily, it's hard to see any selling stick yet.  We need the daily to start turning down first, and then I think the weekly will follow it.

So for tomorrow, if will sell off in the morning, look for the 60 minute chart to start to turn back up and then bail on your shorts.  Usually all the action happens within the first 1-2 hours of the day, so that's when I'd expect the selling pressure to lighten up a little.

A move down to fill the gap at 1105 spx would be my likely guess for a downside target.  That would also hit the rising trendline that supporting this whole move up from the 1010 lower.  If that line breaks, then the market should fall hard.  But on the first hit of that trendline, I'd expect a bounce from it.

This all assumes the government doesn't release some bogus news or data tomorrow morning to cause a gap up to fulfill the bull flag.  From a technical point of view, it's not really a good bull flag on the 60 or 15 minute charts.  And on the daily chart, it needs another 2-3 days of sideways trading to be called a bull flag.  So while it looks like a bull flag, I don't think it actually meets all the proper qualifications.

Anyway, that's about the best guessing I can do for you...

Red

P.S.  Since the government has super computers telling them all the technicals in the market, releasing good job's data (bogus numbers of course) would allow the technicals to play out to the upside.  Basically, with the daily still pointing up, and the weekly too, whatever news they release will determine "When" they both roll back over.  Good news means they will likely extend into overbought territory more.  Bad news means they roll over at any point now.

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