Blog | Red Dragon Leo - Stock Market Trading on the Darkside | Stock Market Trading on the Darkside

Foreclosure’s And The Stock Market Move Up Together…

Leo's Den

Red

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April 15, 2010

Foreclosure’s And The Stock Market Move Up Together…

So today... once again, the market makes a new high... AND So does the Foreclosure rates! What? Are the foreclosure rates and the market locked in step together, like the dollar and the market was? Granted, the dollar being sold hard everyday by the Obama Gangster Gang doesn't get the market up as high as it used too... but they still trade on opposite sides for now.

This foreclosure matter is another deal. So here we have an article by CNN telling us that the foreclosure rates rose 7% from last quarter to a record of 930,000 now. And the stock market rallies some more. WTF? Seriously? Who is doing all the buying for the these companies to have great earnings?

Maybe it's like Anna commented on yesterdays' post, that people aren't paying their mortgage, and instead using that money to buy more stuff (in her case, some hot sexy outfit's from Victoria's Secret... you got too love sexy women).

Or maybe people should be standing up to the crooked banksters like this guy did...

Where is the "so called help" that Obama promised? You remember, the promise to help home owner's keep their homes. What a joke that is! Why should a bank refinance your home when they can steal it from you by foreclosing on it. Why should the bank's loan out any new mortgages when they can make more money manipulating trading the stock market?

Think I'm kidding? How about this story of an "insider" who came out and reported that JP Morgan was manipulating the metals market (story here). That's why the market is going up... it's not people buying, it's just manipulation, using the publics' money.

Yes folks, the so called "Bail Out" funds! You remember that don't you? They were suppose too stimulate the economy right? Just in case you have forgotten about them, or wonder where the money went... here's the story again.

Step One... The government scares congress into having an emergency meeting in late 2008, quoting that the banks will fail and the world will collapse if they don't pass an emergency bailout program to save the banks (in reality it was only the 5-6 largest and most crooked banks that were mainly in trouble, as the small to mid-size banks would be allowed to fail... to eliminate the competition of course).

Step Two... The government passes the bailout plan, and proceeds to borrow money from the Federal Reserve Bank (a private entity ran by crooked banksters, created in 1913 by banksters, with the sole intent on profiting from the government by controlling the monetary system... aka MONEY!).

Step Three... The government prints I.O.U's (aka... treasury bonds), and gives them to the Federal Reserve in exchange for Cash, instead of just printing the cash themselves, at zero percent interest... because they gave up that right to print money themselves in 1913, when they gave it to the Federal Reserve. (A right that was written in the Constitution when America was created, that was to always be done by Congress).

Step Four... The government then takes the cash they borrowed (at whatever interest rate the bonds are worth.... currently 1+ percent on 2 year bonds and longer term), and then loans the money back to the banks (at near zero percent interest), with instructions to get the economy going again by loaning out the money to the public. (Yes, you read that right, they basically pay the banks on money they are loaning them! Huh? Yes, stupid I know! But well planned so the banksters can get richer, which secures the politicians a nice fat job at one of those banks when their term is up).

Step Five... The banksters ignore the government and take the money and buy up their own stock to the ridiculous levels that they currently are at. Why take risk's loaning money to the public for mortgage's at 5% when you can make more money in the stock market? Plus, those loans would be highly risky as the people that the government wants the banks to lend money too, are the people that lost their job's from the banks mortgage bubble that they created that topped in 2007.

Step Six... The banksters pay off common media personal to entice the retail public to get back into the market at the top, so they can unload their bloated stocks to them.

Step Seven... The banksters start to "get short" on the market, while telling the public to buy, buy, buy!

Step Eight... The banksters release some hugely negative event that causes a meltdown in the market, and then tell the media puppets to start telling the public how bad everything is... which causes more selling, fueling the fire and forcing the market down even more.

Step Nine... The banksters go to the government and claim that they are going to fail if they don't get another bailout. The government gives them another bailout.

Step Ten... The banksters take the bailout money, sell out of all their short positions (with a huge profit... stealing the publics' lifesavings from their 401k plans, etc...), and combine that new free money and stolen profits, and start buying up their own stocks again... rallying the market once more again.

Step Eleven... Later, Rinse, Repeat...

Red

P.S. Support Ron Paul, as he want's to get rid of the Federal Reserve and give Congress back the right that was originally theirs in the first place. And support the Tea Party Movement, as those folks are actually out there with signs, on street corners protesting the crooked banksters, etc... I'm simply doing my part to spread the word with this blog, as I sure as hell can't forecast the correct move in the stock market! Ok, well I'll give it a shot for tomorrow... UP as usual (secretly hoping for a crash though)

Happy Illegal Personal Income Tax Day!

Jobless Recovery? Huh?

Leo's Den

Red

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April 14, 2010

47

CNBC posts that we are going to have a "Jobless Recovery"! HUH? How the hell does that work? Just curious, as I'm not the brightest tool in the wood shed. If we don't have any new jobs, and people that aren't working don't have any money too spend... then who's buying?

The people that still have a job sure ain't! The company I work for may not survive, as the work load has been cut down by 75% or more. We have about 40 tech's covering 4-5 states, and work is down to 1-2 "half day's" of work per week. It's the worst I've seen it. Last year, during this same time period (which is normally slow), I worked 4-5 days a week.

Now, it's more like 1-2 days... and those day's are only half days. Do you think I'm spending any money? How about the other 39 tech's? Other friend's of mine are also struggling as work loads drop, and all overtime is cut out. If you still have a job, you should count yourself lucky. Mine may disappear during this great jobless recovery...

If so, I'll be sure to take my laptop with me, to the homeless shelter. I'll have to hide it, or they might think I'm rich or something? I'll walk to McDonald's and steal their free internet, so I can continue doing these worthless daily posts... or bitch sessions.

If I'm ever going to be right calling the market, I'd better get used too saying... "the market is going UP again today", as the word "Down" is now a forbidden word (just like the media won't say Hussein... Obama's middle name? WTF?). Who really cares anyway what his name is? I just call him "the Puppet", just like the President before him, and the one before him, and on and on...

The country is ruled by the elite few, and the President, Secretary of State, and the Federal Reserve Chairman are all just their puppets that they put out there in the public eye, so they can hide safely behind the scenes. So if I sound bitter... well I am!

I'm sick of wasting my time looking at charts that tell me this market should rollover, but yet it continues up as the Great Jobless Recovery creates all these great earnings. It's all horse shit! (Sorry for language) I talk to people every day when I'm working out in the public, and everyone tells me the same thing... the economy is getting worst, not better.

At least the economy was still booming during the 1999 tech bubble (thanks to Ronald Reagan, not Bill Clinton). People had jobs then, and they were spending money. Who's spending money now? I guess I'm just plain stupid, as I don't get it... nor do I see it!

As for tomorrow... more of same B.S.

Red

Recession Over…

Leo's Den

Red

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April 13, 2010

869

Yes dear reader, the recession is officially over now, as the Dow close above 11,000 for the second day in a row. Happy days are here again! The jobless people are back too work now, as Intel must have hired them, causing the great earnings report announced after the bell this afternoon.

Quote... "Intel Corp. says its net income in the first quarter nearly quadrupled over last year. Intel's latest profit was lifted by sales of new chips for computer servers as well as an overall bump in technology spending. And in the comparable period last year the company took a big charge to write down the value of an investment." End Quote.

Hmmm... Did Goldman Sachs need newer and fastest super chips for their computers, that they use to manipulate the market with? Yeah... that must be it! That's why Intel beat estimates this quarter. Regardless of how they did it, (if it's actually an accurate report), we pretty much knew that all the earnings reports this week are going to be positive.

No company is going to go against Uncle Sam and tell the market that they had a horrible last quarter, as no one bought their junk because of the bad weather. Instead, they are going to make up whatever they want, (positive of course) and the government is going to clap and applaud their report.

We are so far from reality that INSANE isn't a strong enough word anymore. Anyone that lives in the larger cities can drive up and down the road and see stores and restaurants still closed... and they will never reopen. You can drive though many of the new sub-divisions and see house after house for sale.

The real unemployment is around 17%, not the 10% the government tells you. No one is spending money now. In fact, there is a large shift now to "pay down debt" by most Americans. Where is the spending coming from to create the great earnings? The government didn't send me a check in the mail, with instructions to go spend it and simulate the economy. Did they send you one?

Everywhere I look, and all the people I talk too... are struggling now. People are hurting. They are moving in together to share expenses as most are losing their jobs, or getting pay cuts. My mother and father are at that age where they are retired and like to travel around in a motor home. My mother is very conservative, and doesn't look at all the corruption and stuff... like I do.

In the past year I've noticed her mention the government many times, speaking specifically about how crooked they are. Coming from my mother... to hear that was a shock! She is definitely a "Blue Pill" taker... if you know what I mean.

Of course I took the Red Pill. But anyway, she was telling me how many homes she saw up for sale, and how many businesses were closed down, as she and my father were driving around in Florida. Of course I already knew that, but hearing it from her just reaffirmed how huge the disconnect is between the stock market and the real world.

So, I guess we will continue rallying up a little bit each day, until all the bears are dead, (or in hibernation), and the bulls are sleeping. Then one day, out the blue, BAM! ...a loud gun goes off as the farmer decides it's time to kill the bull, and eat some steak.

As all the other sleeping bulls awake, they will all run for the exits to escape the farmers rifle. But, it will be too late for many, as the farmer is an excellent shot, and many bulls will be slaughtered. But for now, the bulls can graze peacefully knowing that Obama and the gang are paying the farmer quite well to keep them alive.

Red

Let’s party like it’s 1999!

Leo's Den

Red

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April 12, 2010

1,348

I guess the market will never go down. Good Times are here again as the Dow reaches 11,000. Next up... 12,000 --- with 25% unemployment, instead of the 17% we currently have. The more people are unemployed and underwater on their house value, the better the economy... right?

That's what the media is feeding the unsuspecting pigs (I mean public). Get them to borrow their last dollar from their maxed out credit cards and buy, buy, buy! Don't miss the rally, the bull is just starting... so says the media!

At this point, I see no way to make money shorting this pig! It just keeps getting fatter and fatter. How much slop can this pig eat? Apparently enough to go up another week... or month, or year? Who knows? I've never seen such a huge disconnect between the "real" world... which sucks right now, and the "twilight zone"... in the market.

Unless the earnings are really bad this week, and I seriously doubt it, the market will probably just trade sideways to the usual slow grind up. I feel I like I'm on an old dark century torture table, that slowly stretches my arms and legs... one notch at a time. I can hear my bones start to crack, as the Obama Gangster Gang smiles and laughs as they slowly rotate the wheel, and the rope tightens as it pulls me a little more apart.

It would be nice if the ropes would snap, and free me from this torture table, but I just can't see any reason for the market to fall this week. Although I can't find any technical reason to go long at this point, (the only reason you really need is the fact that the printing press is still going strong). Without the mass printing of our money, which is then given to Goldman... who pockets half of it, and uses the rest of it to push up the market... this market would have corrected a long time ago.

However, nothing really matters as long as they have tons of free money to buy up the market. It's not going to fall, until every bear is dead. Someone sent me this chart showing the extremely low level of bearishness in the market currently, as it's at 18.9% now... with 48.9% of the people bullish.

The 5 year low was 15.6% bearish, and 62.0% bullish. So, I guess we have a little ways yet to go? It seems that we are going to head up to 11,816 dow first... before rolling back down to 107.38 spy. So, I'm going to go long here with every last penny I have... (about 6 cents, as I held back the money I got from pawning the wife).

You know, if there is one thing I can say, that's 100% accurate and true... is that "This market is really wearing me out!" I think I'd be better off as a "Buy and Hold" retail investor right now, as everything is smelling rose too them presently. Of course it will eventually be their turn on the torture table, but right now it's my turn... and my poor old body can't take too much more of this torture.

Just kill me and get it over with! Stop with the slow grind... day in and day out! I can't take the torture anymore. Rally up to 12 million and get the damn P2 over with... please!

Red

Weekend Update…

Leo's Den

Red

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April 10, 2010

77

OR

Will the week kill the last bear, as the bulls continue up on Bullish Monday and then trade sideways the rest of the week? Or, will the week slaughter the bulls by crashing down multiple days in a row? It's any body's guess at this point!

The market is a cruel mistress that likes to butter up the bulls by feeding them hype-hay, only for the sole purpose of getting the bulls fat enough... too later make steak dinner out of them. Neither bull nor bear is safe in such a treacherous environment. Both will eventually be slaughtered, as the master loves to eat them both.

Lately, the masters have been eating bear for dinner, but I think they are ready for a new kind of steak... "Bull Steak", as too much of the same thing can get quite boring. We all need a change from time to time... and the masters are no different.

And fortunately (for the masters)... next week should bring in a lot of volatility as all the earnings are announced (meaning it's "open season" for both bulls and bears). Of course all the companies will lie and spin their numbers to whatever they want them to be. But I suspect that most "insiders" have either already sold their shares, or will shortly. They know first hand... how bad their earnings really are.

With all this sideways to slightly up trading movement in the market, the company owners have had plenty of time to unload their bloated stocks to the unsuspecting public... at top dollar of course. But, now that earning season is upon us next week, what kind of numbers do you think they will report?

Of course they are going to lie a little (more like a "lot"), and maybe fudge a number or two (more likely "double" the real number), and the earnings will look OK, and the stock won't tank... right? Maybe? Or maybe the numbers are too bad to be able to fudge enough where they are believably to the market.

Think of it like this... these last 3 months have been horrible for bad weather across the country as snow was everywhere. We already remember from previous job's numbers that the government blamed the bad report on the weather, stating that people weren't able to go to work because of the snow, etc... Now, if they didn't go to work, to make money to pay bills, and have extra to spend... do you really think they went shopping and out spending money?

Of course not! People aren't spending money... because they don't have any extra too spend. What is that going to do for the earnings for next week? American's are broke, and it isn't getting better. Yes, they can continue to spin the numbers, and fool the public... but at some point (like now) the crap is going to hit the fan!

The "Bullishness" is as high as it was in 2007. Look at this chart from Cobra's blog. It's from Thursday, so it's probably higher now, as the market rallied again Friday.

Cobra gets permission to post it from time to time, but it is from a subscription service at www.sentimentrader.com, so I want to give credit to where it's from. It's a few days old now, so hopefully no one minds that I posted it here.

The point to notice here is... "this isn't the the time to go long"! Of course day-trading is different, but not swing trading or investing, as that's like committing suicide right now. Yes, it could continue up some more, and you can continue to pass the gun around the table... spinning the chamber, and pulling the trigger while aimed at your head.

Each time you have a 1 in 6 chance (5 empty chambers, and 1 with a bullet in it) of shooting yourself, so the odds seem good... right? It's like saying that everyday is a new day in the market, and there is a 50% chance the market will go up, and 50% chance it will go down. Same thing with flipping a coin... right?

We all know that's not true, as the odds DO change when the outcome is the same multiple times in a row. While in theory, it is logical to state the odds as even... and that is logically correct, but humans are not logical in their actions. Maybe they are in their thinking, but their actions are done on impulse.

Take the coin for example. If you flipped the coin in the air 20 times in a row and every time it landed on heads, what are the odds that it would land on heads the next flip? Would you think it would be 50%? Seems logical doesn't it? Here's the problem with that thinking... the person who flipped it 20 times in a row is probably pretty amazed that it landed on heads every time.

In fact, I'd say that he changes the way he tosses the coin because he is actually trying to toss it the same each time. But he can't, because his mind will remember all those previous times in a row that it landed on heads. He will change something, causing the coin to land on tails.

The same thing would happen if you were to spin the chamber of the gun 20 times. You would try too hard to continue spinning it exactly like you did the last time, and "Bang"... you kill yourself.

The stock market is no different. While next week should have a 50-50 chance of going up or down, the reality is that everyone who trades the market knows that it's been up the last 6 weeks in a row, and that will prevent them from believing that the odds are the same for another up week.

They all know the past history of how many times the market has been up 6 weeks in a row, and what happened on the 7th week. Emotions are what makes these odds vary on the stock market, tossing a coin, or playing Russian Roulette.

And yes... I'm very aware that computers are now the largest traders in the market, with Goldman's program leading the pack. But, who programed the computers? Humans did of course. And what parameters did they use to program them with? Human emotions is the correct answer. The super computers are designed to play (or I should say... steal money from) human retail traders, who are emotional in their trading decisions.

If the computers simply took greed, fundamentals, and emotions out the equation... the market would be at about DOW 3,000 now. But add in those factors, add you can quadruple the price. People aren't logical in their actions, only in their thinking (and that's only the really smart people).

Which again, brings me back to the market next week. Logic says the market has an even chance of going up as down next week. Emotions though... gives a different chance. Odds are much higher for a large down move next week, then even a small up move.

While many will disagree with my conclusions on "odds", I'll simply wish them the best of luck. If they decide to go against the odds, and place their chips on the Bull next week, (in my humble opinion)... the odds are highly stacked against them.

Red

P.S. Should the fall begin next week, and should you bears get really excited... like I know you will, let's not forget our downside target captured here in this picture by our friend Sundancer...

Once we hit that target, we bears should be getting out of our shorts and put on our bull suit. Yes... I know, it's hot, dirty, and smelly as bulls roll around in the mud, while we bears tend to clean ourselves in the river... but at least you won't go hungry again. So suck it up (your pride I mean... mine too), and go long when all hell is breaking loose! By the way, that target should line up with the 107.38 spy print I got last month.

The Last Squeeze?

Leo's Den

Red

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April 8, 2010

101

All the selling yesterday and the gap down today... just got squeezed. It seems that the bears never catch a break. Will the market continue higher again tomorrow? They are so close too the 11,000 mark on the DOW, that I think everyone is expecting it now. Does that mean it won't happen?

I can't answer that, but the SPY did have a fake print on Wednesday of 119.35 on the 10 minute chart... which would probably be slightly above the 11,000 mark on the DOW. Could that be the finally target before the drop? Maybe? But we also had another fake print today at 117.65 SPY. Which one will play out is unknown... maybe up first, then down?

Currently, we are still in the channel up from the 1044 low last month. We fell outside that trendline today, but rallied up and closed right on it. The market is slowly starting to crack, and tomorrow is extremely important, as we bears are looking for a close outside that trendline to get the selling started. A close tomorrow inside that trendline/channel would really hurt the bears that are looking for a sell off next week.

Next week is generally bullish, because it's option expiration week. So, that is another strike against the bears. They are truly starving every bear into extinction. Will there be any selling next week? I think they will, but I've been wrong many times before.

Typically, they will pin the market on whatever level benefits them the most. So what level is that on the SPY? You can look at the open interest at each price level too get some type of idea, but it's not always accurate. Looking at the 117 level, there is now 213,816 puts and only 100,087 calls. That could be the place they pin it next week. Also, the 110 level, (which seems a long ways away from where we currently are), has 213,749 puts, and only 10,918 calls.

Needless to say... we're not closing below that level next week! The 117 level looks more likely, and of course my puts will expire worthless at that level (because that's the strike price I purchased). None of this means anything if they decide to tank it next week, (that's what many of us are hoping for). On a dump out, you could easily see 50 spx points, which would be 5 spy points. That would put us in the 113 area, which would also fill that gap up around that level on March 5th.

For now we must simply wait it out, as Fridays' usually have light volume... which means it's not likely to do much tomorrow. I hope it does, but I'm not counting on it. I'll just hang tight until next week, and see if they take her down or not?

Best of luck to all of us...

Red

Tic Toc Tic Toc…

Leo's Den

Red

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April 7, 2010

233

Time is running out as the bulls are starting to weaken! Soon they will fall over from the poison that they've been given. The news out will become increasing worse, causing more panic too occur. Yes folks, the moment of reckoning, (for the bears at least), is now upon us.

One thing clear to me about today's tape was that the big institutions are now selling. They of course know what is too come, and what news will be released in the coming days and weeks. Will it be the Job's Claims numbers tomorrow, or some other event? I don't know what it will be, but I suspect that we will wake up one morning to a large gap down, and the market won't look back...

The reason blamed behind the selling around 2pm on Wednesday was that Tom Hoeing, President of the Federal Reverse Bank of Kansas, came out around 2pm est. Wednesday and stated that he thought they should raise the interest rates to 1%.

Are they preparing us for the coming meltdown? It seems so... We must keep our ears open, as they are now letting the market know ahead of time... that more bad news is coming.

So at this point, it doesn't look like the Dow will reach the 11,000 mark, nor will the SPX reach 1200... YET! Remember, the summer months are still too come, and this current high is likely only temporary. I think we will form a rounded top on this current rally from the March, 2009 low. The real peak will probably occur in the summer, and every last bear will be dead by then.

I hope to still be around, and have successfully navigated these treacherous waters. I know many other's will fall into the bulls' meat grinder, as their master's need to eat sometime... and of course they like bull steak just as well as bear steak.

Playing this game isn't easy, as it's designed for them to always win, and you to lose. So, you must learn to read what the dealers have in their hand, as they most definitely can see what's in your hand.

Of course, there's always a few who win at the table. If not, then the house couldn't keep anyone playing the game anymore. So, beating the house isn't an option... nor is it possible, but becoming the player that wins that hand is. You must use this knowledge to out play the other players... as they are the ones' you can beat.

So it now seems that everyone has laid their bets on "black", as it's come up black for the last trillion days in a row... but I think it's time for "red" to pop up. That's why I'm short, and will add to my short position tomorrow, if I get the chance too.

If you are long, take your profits, and sit this one out. Give us bears a chance to dance with the pretty girl... will you?

Red

Dead Bears…

Leo's Den

Red

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April 6, 2010

130

This Bear is just sleeping, but he might as well be dead, as the bulls are killing every last bear out there! Will this poor fellow be next?"

Are all the Bears dead now? It seems so, as other blogs have given up on the market and are closing up. Over on Cobra's blog (who's isn't closing, by the way), a commenter mentioned that a blog called "Trading the Odds" is closing up. He also stated that another blog had closed too, but I'm not sure which one it was?

Then there is my friend Anna, over at Hot Option Babe... who is also very worn out by all the nonsense in the market, and thinking of closing her blog too. I hope not, and I really don't think she will. She just needs to take a break from all the bull shit and go relax on the beach or something. (Sorry about the cussing, but sometimes you just need to tell it like it is!)

Mole, over at Evil Speculator shut his doors down for a day or so... about a week ago. But, he's back up now. He never really left, just took some time off from posting, is more accurate. Even Alexander Grant over at AMBG Trading has cut his posts down from almost daily, to once every week or so. Why post when nothing changes? (Everyone mentioned here can be found in my blogroll... except "Trading the Odds").

I wonder if it was the same during the 2007 summer rally? Is that a sign that the "TOP" is in? (Short term TOP of course). It's called "Bear Blog Capitulation"! Look at the the put to call ratio on the chart below. That's lower then the reading in the 2007 high! Every bear that's still alive is now bullish. Too many people are on one side now. This boat has got to sink soon!

It makes you wonder if the government has super computers scanning the Internet, reading the bearish blogs, and predicting sentiment from that data? Probably...

But regardless of whether they do, or don't, it doesn't really matter, as all the bears are dead broke by now. That's quite obvious by the extremely light volume. Looking back at the chart I posted on the weekend, we are now at day 10 of a sideways movement. But, we did breakout of that range between 1160-1180, so I guess the count isn't valid anymore?

So, I guess we are going higher again tomorrow, as trying to predict the top is useless at this point. It will go higher until the government's target price and date is met. When? I still think it will be this week, but I don't know Jack Shit it seems? Do you know Jack Shit? Let me introduce you... (you might have too hit the play button twice?)

Well, there's your daily humor. At least I have the good fortune of posting whatever I want, and not just charts like all the other blogs out there. I'd post another chart if you really want me too... but basically, I'll sum it up for you like this...

This is the market direction until the Obama Gangster Gang turns it around.

Red

Housing Market Improving?

Leo's Den

Red

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April 5, 2010

203

Contracts for pending sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly rose in February, a survey from the National Association of Realtors showed, a rise the group said may be attributed to home buyers taking advantage of a soon-to-expire tax credit.

The Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in February, rose 8.2 percent to 97.6 from a downwardly revised 90.2 in January. (Full Story Here... don't waste your time).

Blah, Blah, Blah... the housing market is improving... let's dance!

The media can spin anything into a positive... can't they? Believe me, the market didn't rally because of the housing data. Just another bullish Monday... like the last Monday, and the last Monday, and the last Monday (sorry, the record has a scratch in it... let me move the needle)

The volume was only 97 million shares on the SPY today. Looking back, it looks too be the lightest day in the last 2 years. Of course with such light volume, I could've pushed the market up with my $6.66 (from selling my dog, kid's and wife last week... to go short with).

Volume volume volume... without it, the money in your piggy bank is enough to rally the market higher. They should have just closed the market today, if they weren't going to do any trading in it. Maybe tomorrow will be the start of the coming down move? It's just a guessing game at this point.

The market will fall when the government wants it to fall... no sooner, no later. It's really that simple. Looking back at the chart I posted on the weekend report, we do see that on just about every previous sideways trading range, the market popped higher just before the sell off began.

I thought that Thursday's new high was enough of a pop higher before the selling, but now it seems like it still wants to go a little higher? Was today's new high enough? Maybe? I don't know? With the 1191-1193 spx level, and the Dow 11,000... just a hair above, it seems destine to go there.

Trying to think like they do is the hard part. They are most likely trying to figure out what rest of the traders are thinking, so they can fool them and take their money. So, what does the rest of us retail traders think? I think most traders are now looking for the 200 ma above, as the next likely target.

And, since every trader has heard the old saying "Sell in May, and Go Away"... that leads me to believe that May will be an up month, which is the opposite of what most people are thinking now. I also think that most blogs out there are now calling for more UP, mostly saying 1200 plus on the SPX.

Are they going to be right, or will the market fool them? If they are going to be fooled again, I think it's going to take another "big event" to get the selling started. What will they stage this time? When will it be? Over the coming weekend, or sometime during the current week? I do feel that they will surprise everyone, and a gap down on some opening day is highly likely.

So for now... we wait patiently for the big surprise to be announced. Of course if you're not already short, you probably won't get a chance to get in. You know how they pay that game by now. I know I've said it before... but we are very very close now.

The Treasury notes rallied up to 4.0 % today... and that's not something the market likes. A reaction is coming soon. Remember, looking back at the past 5 times this happened, 2 of the starting days were on a Wednesday, and 2 of the days were on a Friday... with only 1 on a Monday.

That leads me to think that Tuesday will be flat, and if the selling is to start this week... then Wednesday is more likely. Let's hope the Fed's announce something unwelcome by the market tomorrow, as I'm really tired of this merry-go-around!

Red

Weekend Update…

Leo's Den

Red

-

April 4, 2010

66

All signs point to a correction to start next week... but will the government allow it? Just looking at the chart below (found on Cobra's blog), and counting the days that we have been in a sideways channel, you will notice that the number of days are about the same as all the previous sell offs.

This is not based on the usual Technical Analysis, as most of those charts have failed recently. I'm simply looking at the odds of a breakout to the upside after trading sideways for so many days. As you can clearly see, every time the market broke down, except for the November 9th to December 21st area. But, that area clearly shows a lot of whipsaw action up and down as the bulls and bears fought it out. These last 8 days don't look anything like that, as the bulls clearly ruled. The bears never even tried to have a sell off. All the other periods look more similar to most recent range. This leads me to believe another sell off is coming within a few more days.

I think the market will fall quickly to the moving averages around 1120, and then bounce back up. If they fall again, the 200 dma should be around 1070 by then, and that would be my final target down, before another large rally taking us into the summer months.

Now, does that mean it will sell off on Monday? Not necessarily... but it could? I really doubt it though, as the jobs' number's were bad, but not bad enough to cause huge selling on Monday. Remember, most Mondays' are bullish, and without some global political event happening, I do expect another low volume day on Monday.

I think the event we are looking for is the Fed Meeting. A surprise raise in the discount rates for the banks is what I expect to be blamed for the sell off. Of course this could be the one exception, and we could have a break out to the upside. The odds are that the next move will down, and playing the odds is about all we can do in this crazy market.

I'm not going to go over all the other TA's, as they haven't be accurate lately. We all know by now that the markets can stay in overbought or oversold conditions for a lot longer then what they appear too be by using the MACD's, Stochastic, and various other charts.

Instead, this weekend update is simply about the number of days the market has trading in a range before making a move out of the range. I could see another couple days of sideways movement before any move down starts (at most).

Looking a little deeper into the past moves downs, we see...

A rally up to squeeze out the last bear on January 19th, and then the sell off on Wednesday the 20th.
A rally up to squeeze out the last bear on October 22nd, and then the sell off on Friday the 23rd.
A rally up to squeeze out the last bear intraday on September 23rd, and then a sell off the rest of the day (which was a Wednesday, with 1080.15 as the high).
A rally up to squeeze out the last bear on Friday, August 28th, and then the sell off on Monday the 31st.
A rally up to squeeze out the last bear on Thursday, August 13th, and then the sell off on Friday the 14th.

Notice that every time we had a "rally up to squeeze out the last bear"... just before the down move started. Did we have that "rally up" on Friday? Possibly, as we did squeak out a new high... which was also done on just about all the previous times too.

Also, notice that most of the sell offs were started later in the week, with 2 on Wednesday and 2 on Friday... and only one on Monday. So, it could start on Monday... but I expect it to happen later in the week with some news that the market doesn't like.

What is the news? Who knows? I suspect the government will be at the root of the news though... not just bad earnings on a few companies. So, I'm playing the odds, and that tells me that a sell off is the most likely path next week.

Best of luck to all of us... in this Casino we call the Stock Market!

Red

The Dollar Is Near Major Support…

Leo's Den

Red

-

April 1, 2010

26

As you all know by now, the government likes to sell the dollar to pump up the market. And it's no mistake that the dollar has been pounded hard lately. However, there is huge support coming in just a hair under todays' close. Look at that lower rising trend line (in blue) that starts from back in December of last year.

If it breaks, then the market is off to the moon, but if it holds... and bounces off of it, then the market will fall. There is still a little bit of downside left, before it actually touches it... but not much. I'd give it one to two more days at most. That means that Monday could still be an up day, if the job's numbers' are viewed as positive tomorrow?

Of course I'd expect the numbers to already be "baked into the cake"... so to speak. Meaning that regardless of what they actually are, the market has already picked the next move. If todays' new high wasn't yet enough to squeeze out the last bear, then a quick pop on Monday could still happen... before the much anticipated sell off occurs.

Not that the sell off is guaranteed, but it's the likely next move... before any summer rally to 1200 plus occurs. So now we wait for the jobs numbers tomorrow, and then to see how the market views them next Monday. Regardless of the number's, the media will have 3 day's to turn them into something positive. I think the best we can hope for... is a flat close on Monday. That would be a huge relief for the bears, as every Monday since I don't know when... since I was born? ... has been bullish.

I'd had about enough of the Bullish BS... how about you?

Red

Bear Meat…

Leo's Den

Red

-

March 31, 2010

128

The Bulls have certainly been having their fun these last few weeks. They tease the bear by acting like they are going to let him have a little fun. This morning was no different as the bulls teased the bear by selling off on the Bad ADP job's numbers, only to rally back most of the loss throughout the rest of the day.

Tomorrow should be no different as the light volume should keep the market up. But I suspect that by next week, the bear will rise again! The bull won't know what hit him, as the bear is sneaky and will attack from behind. Payback will be brutal and swift as bear seeks his revenge.

The government is already preparing us for bad job's numbers on Friday, by releasing the bad ADP numbers earlier today. They are lowering the expectations by the market... which could lead everyone to believe that the numbers are really bad, or they could "pull another dead rabbit out of a hat" and beat the estimates largely? I don't know which will happen, but a good number (from the part time new hiring of census workers) could also panic the market, as fears of rising interests rates from a growing economy come back into play.

Of course if the numbers are bad, then there is no fear that the government will raise rates, but if they're too bad... then the market may lose faith in the recovering economy and still sell off? After all, the supposedly bullish rise in the market was based on a recovering economy (all though we all know that it was based on the PPT buying up the market with printed dollars from the Stimulus plan).

So, my feeling is that the market will sell off next week regardless of what the numbers are. That's probably why the government didn't push up the release to Thursday, or delay them until next Monday. They know that's it's really a "NO Win Situation", and they are hoping that people will calm down over the 3 day weekend.

I think that it's a perfect time to also release some other bad political news, or global event to blame the coming sell off on. Blame it on Greece or some other country... but not the bad or good jobs numbers. Yes, I guess we could rally higher or trade sideways for another week... but I seriously doubt it. We are now at 7 days in a row of sideways trading between about 1160 and 1180.

We did that back in the first week of January too... and you see what came next. It was also about 7 days before a fall to the down side. Looking back on the daily chart, I see that many times the market would trade sideways, in a tight range, for a week or more before falling hard. Of course we could have the usual bullish Monday again, but I think we are overdue for a sell off on Monday.

I don't know if it happens or not, but it certainly would surprise a lot of bulls... and bears. Ask yourself how many bears will go short over the 3 day weekend? Not many I would guess? They are so used too the bullish Monday's (plus time decay on options) that they will wait until next week before getting short.

It's hard to say for sure what they are thinking, but I'm sure it's aim is to steal the money from the new retail bulls, and not to allow the bears to profit from the sell off. I'd say that they want to steal the bears' money too, but all the bears are now broke, as they stole that money many weeks ago.

Just basing my decision on the number of days sideways, compared to previous moves in the past, I'd say we are within a couple of days of a big move... which have the odds favoring the downside. I'm probably going to get short tomorrow if the market rallies. If it sells off, then I'll probably wait until Monday for the bounce back up. However, I do expect the market to float higher on light volume tomorrow. Not much of course, but higher none the less...

Red

Ugly Market…

Leo's Den

Red

-

March 30, 2010

326

This market is now so ugly it needs "double bagged"! But, at this point I still have too believe that we will see 11,000 DOW this week, as the bears are now dead and bulls have little resistance to stop them. This pushes the coming fall out to next week... or the following week, or the following month, or the following year, or after I'm dead and buried. Maybe it will correct in my next life? I'm hope I'm reincarnated in the bankster family... as then I'll know where the market is going.

Writing about this market lately has been extremely challenging as nothing is happening. Maybe the ADP jobs number will give us some excitement tomorrow? But, after that... it's back to being boring for the rest of the day. Thursday should be just as boring as most traders will leave early for the 3 day holiday weekend.

However, the market is looking really tired now, as each day is having pops and intraday drops... indicating that retail traders are buying the news, and the big institutions are selling on those pops. I have no doubt that we are still within spitting distance of a big dump in the market, but it seems that it can drink a few more beers before it pukes its' guts out.

And believe me... this market is seriously drunk now. It needs too throw up before I do! Reading the comments from yesterdays' post had me agreeing that someone needs to puke now... and I rather it be the market then my fellow traders. So hang in there gang... just a few more spins on the merry go round before the fat pig loses it.

Red

Waiting Again…

Leo's Den

Red

-

March 29, 2010

1,079

As every minute tick's by, another grain of sand falls inside the hour glass we call the Stock Market. Eventually, the sand will all be gone and so will the rally. But when you ask? The only people that can answer that question are the insider's in Goldman Sachs and the Government... which are basically the same entity now anyway.

I'd love too tell my fellow bears that the market is going down hard this week, but it's not likely to happen. That jobs report on Friday is probably horrible... which is why they didn't move it up to Thursday, or out to Monday. They want to give the Obama Gangster Gang (OGG from now on... kinda cool, isn't it?) the long 3 day weekend to lie, steal, cheat, manipulate, fabricate, and spin the bad news into something positive, so the market won't tank on Monday.

With that said, I still think we will see some selling next week. Don't know how much, as we might only get to 1150, and reverse back up? Hard to say on that one. It's again... all about volume. Big volume equals big institutions selling... and that means we are going down further as small moves down aren't enough profit for them. They need 5-10% corrections to make it worth their time on swing trades.

Of course they still have Hal (their top secret computer trading program) that manipulates the market up and down daily to steal money from the day traders, by front running the market. Yes, it's illegal... but who cares? They are doing "God's" work, and seeing what trade orders that are coming down the pipeline, just split seconds before they are executed (allowing Goldman to place their orders ahead of them, at a lower price), is perfectly OK in their eye's.

What's the big deal anyway? Stealing a few billion dollars a year from dumb Americans who are too busy watching American Idol and Jerry Springer, isn't really a crime... now is it? Besides, they won't miss it... just keep them high on legal drugs that the doctor prescribes for every little ache and pain they get from such a tough life of sitting in that uncomfortably arm chair... pressing buttons on the remote control, causing their fingers to go numb as they get brainwashed from the bought and paid for media telling them that it's safe now to go spend again.

Yes, my dear readers, it's now safe to go back into the market and spend your last dime on some new electronic toy like the Apple iPhone, iPad, iPod, and iUnbelievably that the public is so iStupid! Needless to say... the market is likely to trade sideways to higher all week, and will probably hit 11,000 on the Dow.

Next week will have a lot of earnings coming out, and could be the bad news we are looking for? But, you must understand that the OGG isn't the only one that can lie and fabricate numbers... so can the CEO's of those companies announcing earnings.

A correction down to that fake print area around 1075 spx is coming... but when? Thinking outside the box, and trying to think like the OGG, would have me tanking the market in the summertime, and rallying into the fall/winter season. This is the opposite of what most people are expecting. I think we can all agree that if everyone is expecting something to happen... it won't.

So, what if we sold off in April and rallied back in May and June to put in a double top, or maybe a lower high? Then sell off early throughout July and August... pass Stimulus package TWO in September, and rally the rest of the year. Just trying to think like the OGG...

What would Jesus do? What would the OGG do?

Red

Weekend Update…

Leo's Den

Red

-

March 28, 2010

599

What can be said that hasn't already been said? The market is insanely overbought now, and way too many indicators are rolling over now and pointing down. The MACD Histogram's on the daily charts are pointing down, and have crossed over the zero line on many different indexes. The MACD averages are rolling over and touching, or have already crossed over it.

So yes... we should correct down next week, but will we? Friday is a holiday next week and the market is closed. That means only 4 trading days... and yet the government is still going to release the jobs report on Friday. Why didn't they move it up to Thursday? Does that mean that the number is horrible? Probably so...

Regardless, unless the big institutions start the selling, any retail selling will be bought up on light volume. That doesn't mean I don't think we won't sell off some next week. I could easily see the 1150 spx support level being tagged sometime next week.

However, breaking that support level and heading on down to the support area around 1115 spx, is probably not going to happen next week... UNLESS, some big political news happens to scary the market! That's really what we bears are hoping for, isn't it? It's sad that they won't let the market trade up and down fairly, so both bulls and bears could profit. If that happened, then we wouldn't look forward to some war to break out, country to go bankrupt, or terrorist attack to happen.

Instead, they manipulate the market to such extremes that the only way it will fall is on some horrible news like that. I really don't want to profit from something so negative, that could have people dying, just for the market to sell off. Why can't they let it happen naturally, from bad earnings, jobs reports, etc... so that the market could actually be valued fairly is beyond my understanding.

Yes, I know they want to steal everyone's money, and make all the profit they can. However, it could still be done without creating chaos, and putting innocent people on the streets by bankrupting the company they work at, just to eliminate the competition like Goldman did to Lehman brothers.

The point I guess I'm getting too, is that I don't see a big sell off without some really bad news (possible war event, another country bankruptcy announcement, terrorist attack, swine flu, Greece defaults, you name it?). The first level down is of course the 1150 area, then 1115 area, and finally the 1075 area... where I caught a 107.38 spy fake print and Sundancer caught a 107.82 spy fake print.

Ultimately, I think we are headed there... probably within the next month. But, the government is smarter (more evil and corrupt is more accurate of a word), then I am... which means they could manipulate this market sideways in a choppy fashion throughout the next 6 months or so, and finally crash it in the fall.

A move down to 1115 might be all we bears get from them, as the weekly chart is still pointing up. It needs to rollover soon, if we are to state that 1180 is the high. If we manage to take out the 104 (spy) level, then I think the weekly chart will roll over and the market is done!

That stupid fake print tells me that we won't take it out, but instead rally back from that level and either put in a new high in the summer months or trade sideways in a range until this fall. It's a really tough market to forecast, as it doesn't follow any patterns that can be tracked accurately. Of course that's the way they want it... as we'd all be rich if it were easy to forecast.

So, let's not get our hopes up until volume comes back into the market. That's unlikely to happen next week, as most traders will be waiting for the job's report on Friday. Again, I do suspect that we will hit 1150 next week, as many traders will take some profit ahead of the report. Plus, the end of the month and quarter window dressing is now over, and the big institutions can dump the shares they just bought, (so they could report to their clients that they owned them... as their clients will assume they have owned those companies for the entire 3 month quarter, but we know they only owned them for a few days). That's window dressing my friends... clean up your house before the relatives come over for one day, and trash it the rest of the year!

Anyway, let's hope for something bad for the market too be announced... but not bad for people of course. I don't want innocent people too be hurt or die for the bears to profit a little... but I wouldn't shed any tears for the thugs in Washington DC, or banksters!

http://www.taxfree15.com

Red

Is The Dam Overflowing?

Leo's Den

Red

-

March 25, 2010

68

Signs are clearly pointing to a top being in within a few days at most. The high today of 118.17 could very well be it? The Dam is overflowing now and will soon explode, as the water of worry will spillover into the happy little town of the bulls below.

When that happens, you will see a stampede of bulls as they run for the exits... but fortunately the bears can swim. The news out today wasn't actually bad, and some of it was good... at least on the earnings of some companies. That sparked the early gap up and rally, as some good earnings and a small relief of debt worries of Greece eased fears.

But, it was short lived as the dollar didn't sell off as expected when Germany said it would help Greece out as a last resort. That scared those bulls who went long before the open. They were expecting the usual sell off in the dollar to occur, as Bernanke and gang are so punctual in doing it all the time.

It scared them I believe, and so the bulls sold off hard into to close. Of course that doesn't necessarily mean that tomorrow will bring more selling, as Friday's are rarely bearish. Another flat day with light volume is more likely. If however, we do get a close below today's close... then Monday should bring some selling.

That channel must be broken first of course, and it could happen tomorrow? I would be shocked if it did though, as this market has been so heavily control the last year that a failure tomorrow could indicate that they are losing that control... and that would be really bad for the market.

I would like for it to be another controlled sell off to either the 1115 spx area, or preferably to the 107 spy area where those fake prints are. Then a slow grind higher in the summer months to form a nice rounded top on the market, with a really large sell off in the fall.

It's really what I expect to happen... which means it won't occur of course. Hold on... let me call my friends at Goldman Sachs. Opps... I don't have any friends there. Well I guess we'll just have to play it day by day, and not worry about next month, or year.

So, for tomorrow I expect the market to remain in the channel. If it doesn't by some odd reason, and it closes below the channel, then we will need another conforming close below it on Monday before I'd be comfortable saying "the bear is back". Remember, Monday's are almost always bullish... so don't fall into a bear trap on Friday.

What we need is a large down day with large volume. We barely went over 200 million shares today on the spy. I'd like to see 300 million, as that's a clear sign that the big institutions are selling... which means they plan on taking it down further. That's when I'll believe that "the bear is back"

Regardless of whether it happens tomorrow or not... we are close, as the dam is hemorrhaging now.

Red

Lighting Is Coming…

Leo's Den

Red

-

March 24, 2010

618

At this point it seems that every normally bullish trader is bearish, but not willing to go short until they see the big institutions go short first. Can't say I blame them, as they've seen all the bears squeezed into absurdity. The bulls are probably just sitting in cash, and still in some safer long plays (assuming you can find some?).

Where does the leave us? Once again... in the eye of a storm. Yes, the market is waiting for some big news to cause a sell off, or big rally (doubtful on that though). The housing market is still in terrible shape, but it doesn't seem to matter to the government, as they have other plans. What they are... is the real question?

They will tank this market eventually, but when... that's what we all want to know. Will it be on the jobs numbers tomorrow? We did have a down day today, even though the volume was light (only 179 million on the spy). That should tell you that they are struggling to keep the market up. If they can't close it up with low volume, what's going to happen when the first thug panics and the high volume comes in? (I mean banker of course).

The dollar exploded up today, which is another clue that the market is closer then ever to a nice correction. The euro is also tanking, and the Greece debt is still a problem. Portugals' credit was downgraded today too. Everything is pointing to a sell off, as there really isn't any good news out there to report. But, the media just does their usual spin on all the news realized, making it look like roses (but it smells like bull crap too me).

I just can't find any good news to justify going higher. Going long now is like playing a game of Russian Roulette... you're only click away from death, just like the market is now. As you pass the gun around, someone is going pull the trigger, and there's going to be a real bullet in the chamber.

But for now... we must wait to see who shoots themselves first? Will it be Obama with something he says, or maybe Bernanke speaking? Or, it could be some news event... but the storm is coming soon, make no mistake about that. I can see the dark clouds in the sky now.

Red

Bewitching Hour…

Leo's Den

Red

-

March 23, 2010

79

Ever since the March 6th, 2009 low, the market has routinely triggered the computer buy programs at 3pm-3:30pm, and today they were triggered again. It's so common now that you can set your watch to it. Every time there is extremely light volume, it seems that some buy program hits at the last hour of the day.

Of course they activated the computer buy programs at 3pm today, and squeezed the bears once again. Being a bear in this market should be classified as "suicidal", as they are being hunted to extinction. I would tell you again how massively overbought this market is and should correct back down, but again... it's worthless right now, as the bulls control the tape.

So, I looked around and found a bullish chart (found on the chart pattern trader). It was really hard to find one, as most charts are bearish, but the weekly chart has room to go higher.

As you can see, the MACD just crossed above the zero line last week, and in positive territory now. If you ignore the "overbought" condition, and just look at this chart... you would be bullish. Of course charts are really worthless right now, as the Obama gang isn't allowing this market to sell off any right now.

So, we wait... until Obama gives the big boys the "Go Ahead" to take some profit. Of course some news event will be blamed for it, so keep your eyes open. I doubt it will be the jobs numbers as the new Census Jobs created will probably cause the numbers to beat estimates... which could cause us to rally more.

The Greece ordeal could blow up anytime between now and eternity... meaning you can't count on that one to crash the market. I don't know what the event will be, but I'm sure it will be during a light volume session or holiday weekend... to catch the bears sleeping of course.

Maybe I should forget charting and go back to just bitching about corruption? Hell... I never started this blog by posting charts or making technical analysis... why start now? I'll just rub my crystal ball and tell you that nothing is going to bring the market down without volume... which will come from some bad news event.

Red

New Heatlhcare, Positive Or Negative?

Leo's Den

Red

-

March 22, 2010

236

Looks like Obama will get the health care bill passed after all (even if the Republicans don't like it). Will it be good for the public or bad? I've heard nothing but bad, but I truly don't know until it's out and in the system. Let's hope it's a positive, as all American's need it.

I'm not going into a long post tonight as it's been a long day for me, and my brain isn't working too well. I will say that today appeared to be a simple "fake-out" move, as so many people expected the market to sell off on the health care bill, which of course means the market will do the opposite.

The big institutions knew that many traders went short on Friday, expecting the bill to pass, so they had to rally up and squeeze them out. Now that doesn't mean that the market is going to dump tomorrow. The institutions will first squeeze out the shorts, if they didn't do so today, and then a sell off should happen.

Besides the short squeeze, the market was also propped up for the passing of the bill. It wouldn't look good on Obama if the markets dumped on the very day that the bill passes. They don't want it to appear obvious do they? Of course not. But if the market dumps later this week, then they can blame it on the jobs report or something... but not the health care bill.

It's just a game of "slight of hand" that they play. Regardless, I still believe it will fall this week. I think the target for the coming fall is around the 107.38 spy level, as that where I caught a fake print back on March 6th, 2010. Sundancer caught one at 107.82, so somewhere in those areas is where the likely move down will end, or pause.

Of course this isn't going to happen overnight, as the 1150 spx level must be taken out first, then the 1115 spx will be the next major level. It's coming though... I'll really be interested to see if the month closes out above or below the 1115 level. That should tell us a lot about the future direction of the market.

Red

Weekend Update…

Leo's Den

Red

-

March 21, 2010

233

It's all about the Health Care plan now, as the market will likely react unfavorably to it passing. Obama is dead set on screwing the middle class with this piece of crap bill. It's going to cause premium rates go up for all customers as providers will be forced to cover everyone, including those with prexisting conditions. Common sense tells you that insurance providers will raise rates across the board to pay for those people.

It's not fair to the healthy people to be forced to pay higher rates, but Obama is dead set on passing it. Wall Street won't like it, and we bears are likely to see the correction that should have happened last month. Because of all this manipulation since last year's low, Obama and the gang will likely cause the Great Depression 2, with a stock market at 3,000-4,000 Dow within the next 2-3 years.

I hope I'm dead wrong on that, but all the charts point to that area as the finally low, before any real recovery can happen. If they would have stayed out the market, we might be recovering right now. This process of slowly pulling the band-aid off the wound is more painful, and will do more damage, then to just pull it off quickly. If will would have had Ron Paul as president, he stated that he wouldn't have bailed out the banks, and he would have most likely shut the Federal Reserve down.

That would have been the best thing to do, as the market would have probably put in a lower low then the March 6th, 2009 low, and then traded sideways for the last year building a solid bottom. By now we could actually have been just starting a healthy rally.

Shutting down, or bankrupting the 5-6 largest (and crookedest) banks, along with the Federal Reserve would have actually made every American the equivalent of $10,000,000 dollars richer as that how much debt would have been erased from the system. Basically, that's because the banks have stolen Billions of hard working American's money through the various bailout programs. I didn't see my bailout money... did you see yours?

We really didn't stand a chance in the rigged election either as McCain would have also bailed out the banksters. (So, I'd be all over him too if he had won). Trying to get a politician into office that's "Honest" and has "Integrity" is almost impossible. They usually don't have the funding to get noticed, and even if they do win some how, the crooked politicians won't work with them. Nothing will ever get done, until you get enough honest people to overpower the dis-honest ones.

So what about the market? I'd post some charts of the likely direction, but it's really worthless to do so until this bill gets passed... or not? If it doesn't get passed, then you can expect more of the same old slow grind sideways to higher, as the big institutions aren't allowed to sell their shares until Obama and gang give them the OK.

If the bill passed, as I expect it to do so, we should certainly see another 10% correction... at the minimum. Since it will be spring/summer soon, the market could then turn and go back up higher during those slow months. I think the real fireworks are going to happen this coming fall/winter, as I don't think they will be successful in holding it up during that period.

But, for next week... assume the bill passes, we should see some selling. Until that happens, I'm not wasting time posting charts. I will say that 1150 area needs broken first, then 1115 area, and finally the double bottom area around 1045. If will break that, then I don't see us going higher in the summer months.

So, I do believe that a correction is coming, but whether or not it's the start of the much anticipated "P3" or just another 10% correction is yet to be known. Just for clarification, when I say 10%, I mean a correction similar to the one's we've already had... which haven't actually made it all the way down to exactly 10%. Each one stopped just shy of a 10% correction. If we do go all the way to 10% this time... the bear market might be back?

If you're a beaten up bear like me, you start becoming more cautious of making correction predictions, as I've been wrong so many times. I know that every time I chart out a most likely path for any forecast correction, I get my foot stuck where the shine doesn't shine. I'm going to be a lot more nimble now.

Of course that's exactly how they plan it... keep whipping the dog until all you have to do is pick up the newspaper and the dog will obey. The government has succeeded in beating up every last bear to the point that they are either broke, just too scare to go short anymore, or have converted to being a bull. I must admit, I'm too scare to go short... until I see the big institutions participating. Without them selling, no down move will stick.

So, I'm expecting some selling next week... but I'm not shorting until I see how Wall Street reacts to the health care news. There are many reason for the market to fall. Not only is the market worried about the health care plan, but the Greece problem hasn't went away either. The dollar is looking bullish too. And I believe oil is also ready to fall.

There's also talk of raising the capital gains tax, which will drive money out of the stock market and into tax exempt investments, like municipal bonds, etc... The longer this market stays up, the further it will fall. That's the really sad part for the average non-trading American, as all this manipulation is going to wipe out what little savings they have left.

You have 33 states with unemployment over 15%, and at least 5 states are ready to go bankrupt. There are so many reason for this market to tank, that I couldn't even list them all. The more the government intervenes, the worst it will be. If we had a truly free market, the bad apples would have already been removed from the basket, and some sort of real recovery could have already began.

But, we live in corrupt world where the rich get richer by stealing from the middle class to bribe the poor to vote them in office, or the candidate they support. If you're poor you'll be fine as the government will give you your monthly payoff. If you're rich you'll continue to sell your soul to stay that way. And if you still have a job, then you're somewhere in the middle... regardless of how much you actually make, consider yourself a "middle class" American. Meaning that your role in the Matrix is to work every day to serve others. Kinda sucks, doesn't it?

But, at least you have the illusion of freedom. You feel some what free... right? Of course, you know that you're really not free... for if you were, you could pick up and go anywhere, anytime, and stay as long as you want too. But, with a mortgage, wife, 2.5 kids, car payments, car insurance, health insurance (which will increase shortly), and who knows what other bills... you really aren't that free after all.

So we gamble in this casino game called the stock market, thinking that's it's not actually gambling because we can use some form of technical analysis to logically predict where the market is going... only to realize that the market doesn't operate on logic, but instead it operates with the sole purpose of taking your money. Kinda like Vegas... isn't it? Well, at least you could get free drinks in Vegas...

Red