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ES Morning Update March 24th 2017

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ES Morning Update March 24th 2017

In the chatroom yesterday I presented 3 scenario's that might play out.  One and Two were a move down today to make either a lower low or higher low... both would setup positive divergence for later in the day or Monday.  The Third scenario was a move up that would extend the correction into next week instead of ending it today.  So, looking at the futures this morning we are chopping around the same level as the close yesterday and up slightly but nothing really clear yet.  What does this mean?  To me it looks like the move up from the low on the 21st isn't done yet and it's breaking down into a series of smaller waves.  I think the move from 2335 up to 2355 was some kind of A wave up and the B went to yesterdays low (so far) and at some point we are going to do a C wave up.  This again is looking at this from a point where I'm expecting either Scenario One or Two to play out.

Let me explain further.  If we get a move down today that is lower then the 2338.25 low yesterday then it should complete the B wave down but also setup the positive divergence on the MACD's.  This move down can be slightly higher or lower then the 2332.25 low on the 21st, but if it a lot deeper then that level then it's now some smaller B wave down with a C up yet to come.  A pierce is fine but nothing huge.  Then that would setup a C wave up into next week that might go as high as that falling trendline connecting prior highs that's pointing to around 2382 right now.

That's the ideal move for the bulls I think but the way the futures are hugging that rising trendline pointing to 2340 right now they don't seem to want to lose it.  And that tells me they will attempt this C wave (my Third Scenario) today with a weak MACD setup.  It also tells me that the odds of a move up to the falling trendline around 2382 is much less.  I'd guess that if they do the C wave up today they will have a hard time getting through the blue falling trendline pointing to 2355 at the close. If they manage that then the 2370 area would be the next resistance, but I just don't see it today.

What this looks like is bulls doing the stubborn thing and just digging their heals in at this level because they refuse to give up the long black rising trendline pointing into 2340 right now.  But standing their ground here doesn't allow them to rest and put in that positive divergence needed to get a strong C wave up to as high as 2382 or so.  Instead they will likely just hold on right here and chop this market up and down today not breaking the longer black rising trendline or getting through the blue falling trendline... maybe not even the black falling trendline at 2344 that they are banging on right now?  So what does that imply you ask?  It suggests Scenario Three for today... a choppy and weak C wave up attempt is likely but shouldn't get past the blue falling trendline.

When you ask? Late in the day is more likely but could happen anytime.  From the looks of it right now it doesn't even act like it plans to do much but chop inside the APEX of the smaller triangle with the falling black trendline pointing to 2344 as the top of that triangle and the longer black rising trendline as the bottom of it.  It could expand into a bigger triangle by making a run for the blue falling trendline but it's just looking weak at the moment.  Keep in mind that the blue falling trendline will be lower by Monday and it should provide less resistance if the futures decide to put in their positive divergence over the weekend with a trip back down to the 2332.25 prior low.

Anyway, lot's of ways the market can trick us but I'll put my bet on a whole lot of nothing today but chop inside a triangle with a decent chance of a breakout later today (for that weak C wave up) that expands the triangle to use the blue falling trendline.  A close around that 2355 area would have me flipping a coin going short over the weekend, but I'll make that decision by the close today if it happens?

ES Morning Update March 23rd 2017

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ES Morning Update March 23rd 2017

I've added in a new rising trendline and the starting point on it is the low back in December of 2016 then connecting to the February 2017 low and extending into yesterdays low.  Sometimes you miss trendlines and have to go back and try to figure out why the market stopped where it did... only to see a trendline you missed.  I'm also showing you the 6 hour chart today instead of the 60 minute chart.  On this chart we can the futures seem to be in a rising channel but also struggling to get through the falling black trendline that acts as resistance and makes the top line of a triangle with the bottom line of that triangle being the new much longer black rising trendline.  The triangle is much bigger if you get past that black falling trendline and look for the blue falling trendline, as that also makes another triangle.

Ok, triangles and channels... which is going to work?  Well, after watching this market manipulate the sheep over and over into the wrong position I'm guessing that the rising triangle will fail today and the falling black trendline will keep the futures from rallying through it.  And I'm thinking the new longer black rising trendline will hold as well.  Therefore, SkyNet will do it's favorite pattern today... the triangle.  I'm looking for a rangebound day where the market goes up and down small inside the APEX of this triangle.  The 60 minute chart has MACD's that came up from -8 or so to +2 yesterday and are now back down to a hair over zero.  What should happen is that it dips into the negative again and recycles back up late in the day maybe going to -2.5 or so before turning.  At the same time the futures should stay inside the triangle.

LOL... before I got finished typing this update the rising channel broke!

Katy Perry accused of witchcraft by nuns

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Katy Perry accused of witchcraft by nuns

Two nuns who are strongly opposed to Katy Perry purchasing their former convent accused Katy Perry of witchcraft and of “selling her soul to the devil”. They really don’t want her to move in there.

The singer whose last single was about people being too “comfortable in their bubble” has been attempting to buy, for the past two years, a gigantic convent in Los Feliz, Los Angeles. Perry made a $14.5 million offer to buy the eight-acre property but five nuns maintaining the estate fought tooth and nail to stop the deal. The judge finally sided with the Perry, who will most likely move into the estate once the transaction has been approved by the Vatican.

“Perry initially thought that she would be able to buy the former convent from the archdiocese of Los Angeles, run by Archbishop Jose Gomez, and made a $14.5 million (£9.3 million) bid. However, the five nuns living in the property at the time deemed that Perry would be an unsuitable owner and pushed to sell it to businesswoman Dana Hollister instead, who wanted to turn it into a hotel. A local Catholic archbishop then argued that it was him and not the nuns who owned the property and that it was his wish to sell the property to Perry.

The Hollywood Reporter now reports that judge Stephanie Bowick issued a ruling on Tuesday (March 14) that the nuns “did not have authority to sell the property to Hollister” and “nevertheless failed to validly consummate the transaction.”
– NME, Judge sides with Katy Perry as nuns accuse singer of witchcraft

The property is maintained by Sister Rita Callanan, 78 and Sister Rose Catherine Holzman, 86, who belong the Order of the Immaculate Heart of the Blessed Virgin Mary. Sister Callanan stated that she would ‘not be very happy at all if Perry got the property adding: ‘I do not like Katy Perry’s lifestyle’.

Amidst the court battle, the nuns have been extremely vocal about their opposition to the sale, even branding Perry as “disgusting” and hinting that she would desecrate the convent’s sacred grounds. In an interview with the Daily Mail, the nuns explained the time they confronted Katy Perry about her selling her soul to the devil and more.

“Recalling a meeting the sisters had with the singer, Sister Callanan said: ‘She brought her mother Mary to the meeting and I just thought, ‘Oh God help us.’

‘Katy Perry was all dressed very nicely and said: ‘I have this tattoo on my wrist and it says Jesus.

‘And I wanted to say, ‘yes and what is the tattoo on your behind?’

The nun also quizzed Perry on remarks she had made about ‘selling her soul to the devil’ when she moved from Christian music into mainstream pop.”

The estate was originally built in 1927 for the broadcaster and entrepreneur Earle Anthony. It was then sold in 1961 to Catholic philanthropist Sir Daniel Donohue. Soon after, his son committed suicide on the property.

In 1969, Manson’s followers butchered the couple Leno and Rosemary LaBianca in their house adjoining the property.

The couple was stabbed dozens of times in a ritualistic matter. Leno LaBianca was given 14 puncture wounds with an ivory-handled, two-tined carving fork, which was left jutting out of his stomach. A steak knife was also planted in his throat. Manson’s followers wrote “Rise” and “Death to pigs” on the walls and “Healter Skelter” on the refrigerator door, all in LaBianca’s blood. These events occurred on the day following the infamous killing of Sharon Tate (Roman Polanski’s pregnant wife) by Manson’s “family” (read my article about it here).

“In August 1969, a night after the murder of Sharon Tate and others by followers of Charles Manson, Leno and Rosemary LaBianca were also butchered by the Manson family — and the misspelled phrase “Healter Skelter” was written in blood on a refrigerator — in a home that adjoins the nuns’ property.”
– NY Times, 2 Nuns, a Developer and Katy Perry Walk Into a Real Estate Deal

Charles Manson was a product of the MKULTRA program. He was described by Fritz Springmeier as “both a Monarch slave and a handler”. His programmers knew ahead of time what were going to be the next hits. He was basically used by the elite to carry out ritualistic murders. Manson was reportedly programmed using Beatles songs (Manson himself claimed that the song Helter Skelter contained hidden messages intended for his family).

“The Manson killings were performed according to ancient ritual with hoodwinks and “cords of initiation” around the necks of the sacrifices. (…)

What we are witnessing in the wake of the public enactment of these alchemical psychodramas, whose spiritual consequences for mankind are far more momentous than most have thus far guessed, is a process of global occult initiation”.
– Michael, A. Hoffman, Secret Societies and Psychological Warfare

The entire Manson saga was deeply interconnected with the occult elite’s Satanic industry.

“the murders attributed to the Son of Sam, the Manson Family, and numerous other interconnected killings (including possibly the Zodiac murders) were not what they appeared to be.  While these killings appeared to be the random work of serial/mass murderers, they actually were contract hits carried out for specific purposes by an interlocking network of Satanic cults … In other words, these were professional hits orchestrated and disguised to look like the work of yet another ‘lone nut’ serial killer.”
– David McGowan, “There’s Something About Henry”

So this is the property Katy Perry has been attempting to purchase for the past two years. Is it truly the perfect place to drink “green tea and meditate” … or to carry out Black magick rituals?

***

Bette Davis’ Christian daughter claims her famous mother practiced witchcraft

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4310462/Bette-Davis-daughter-says-mother-practiced-witchcraft.html#ixzz4bpbQV2sD

A neurotic, controlling and manipulative drunk who indulged in the occult and spent decades trying to break up her daughter’s marriage – that’s the shocking portrayal of legendary film star Bette Davis by her eldest child B.D. Hyman.

Nearly 30 years after Davis died, her daughter is still waging a war against her famous mother in YouTube videos to promote her Christian ministry.

And the fight is even more vicious than the rivalry between Davis and her What Ever Happened To Baby Jane? co-star Joan Crawford, which is recounted in Ryan Murphy’s new TV series, Feud.

Hyman, now 69, who lives in Charlottesville, Virginia is a born-again Christian who runs her own ministry.

In a series of YouTube videos called A Long Day’s Journey Into Light, she shares her ‘testimony’ with her followers.

It includes claims that her mom dabbled in witchcraft, casting spells on her enemies from her bed, and that the star’s ‘demonic’ curse on Hyman and her family led to her grandson’s bipolar diagnosis and her daughter facing terminal cancer.

In a 2015 video, Hyman says: ‘[She] would sit on her bed and she had this big metal wastebasket and she would have her secretary get a piece of clothing from someone who had vexed her, crossed her in her view, and she would take this piece of clothing and she would mumble incoherently and she would then set it on fire and hold it over this metal wastebasket, and laugh as it burned and she dropped it into this container.

‘People’s lives were destroyed. They fell apart. All sorts of horrible things happened to them.’

She also claims to have witnessed her mother’s ‘demonic cackling,’ watching her ‘transform into a Satanic figure, [with] a Satanic face, long claws on the end of her hands,’ scraping at the glass of a terrace door during a 1982 trip to her Davis, California home.

Hyman added that her mother was ‘the poster girl for the spirit of control’ and described how she became increasingly ‘invasive’ and destructive’ in her and her family’s life.

The claims are just another chapter in Hyman’s bitter relationship with her mom, which she exposed in her 1985 tell-all, My Mother’s Keeper: A Daughter’s Candid Portrait of Her Famous Mother.

May sets Brexit date for March 29

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May sets Brexit date for March 29

British Prime Minister Theresa May will formally trigger Brexit on March 29 but tensions have already concentrated around the punishment the European Union might try to extract from any deal.

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told German newspaper Bild the UK may have to abandon a trade deal unless it agreed to the high terms offered by the EU, including a “divorce bill” up to £60 billion.

Mr Juncker said Brexit would bring the remaining 27 members closer together. He said they will fall in love with each other again and renew their vows with the European Union because “Britain’s example will make everyone realise that it’s not worth leaving.”

He said: “Half memberships and cherrypicking aren’t possible. In Europe you eat what’s on the table or you don’t sit at the table.”

But the chair of Westminster’s European Scrutiny Committee, Bill Cash responded with a terse reminder that Britain didn’t owe anything to the EU, in a “legal or political’’ sense.

In an inflammatory remark, Mr Cash said it was worth bearing in mind that the UK helped restructure Germany’s post war debts back in 1953.

Mrs May has already indicated she will walk away from a bad trade deal and have a no deal if the EU wanted to extract a savage punishment.

Mrs May yesterday notified the EU Council president Donald Tusk of the official date the United Kingdom will trigger article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, — on Wednesday next week — which kick starts the two year formal divorce proceedings from the EU.

The official start of proceedings will start with a formal letter sent by Mrs May to the EU.

ES Morning Update March 22nd 2017

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ES Morning Update March 22nd 2017

We got our rally yesterday but it fell short only hitting 2378 and not the 2385-2390 that I had hoped for.  And we also got our C wave down that I was looking for but I must admit that it moved so fast that I didn't get short for it... bummer.  And from the looks of that wave down it doesn't look finished yet.  I suspect there's another move down that hit's the falling black trendline pointing to the 2315-2320 area right now.  The question is... will we see that move today or another day this week?  Here's the way I'd look for it to happen... the move should do it today by the close or tomorrow at the latest.  Anything past that in time risks the bottom already being put in and a squeeze up starting the could last for a week or more.

So what I'd look for is a rally up today to hit that slightly higher falling trendline that's pointing to around 2350, which should then get the short term charts overbought enough to give us that next wave down into the close or afterhours (which should continue into Thursday morning).  Timewise I'd say that today's close around 4pm EST will give us the clues we need to figure it out.  Then on Thursday I'm guessing that we'll see some bottom (or top, but should be a bottom) that turns around strong around the last hour of the day.  Meaning around 3pm that day we should see that final bottom to flush out the bulls.  Then a rally should start.  This is of course just speculation based on how I've noticed SkyNet tricks us sheep, but that's sometimes all you can do is guess.

ES Morning Update March 21st 2017

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ES Morning Update March 21st 2017

This morning the ES Futures appear to have crossed the falling blue trendline of resistance and are trying to straighten out the MACD's so the market can go higher.  It's clearly a bull flag pattern as the rally up into the close yesterday made the flag pole and the sideways trading around the 2374 level made the flag part.  So, we should see the futures rally up at some point today if that bull flag works.  And let's face it... bull flags almost always play out while bear flags rarely work.

The resistance on the upside is the falling black trendline around 2385 or so.  Above that is 2390 from two different rising black trendlines.  Just looking at the MACD's on this 60 minute chart and the MACD's on the 6 hour chart (not shown), as well as the MACD's on the daily chart I just don't see another higher high being put in anytime soon.  That 2385-2390 area should stop the bulls as the daily chart is just not strong enough to support the bulls.  It's MACD's are pointing down from high level and we are getting a bearish cross on the moving averages.  I'm not expecting a big pullback but a small one may have already started with the March 1st high of 2400.  But back to what's expected for today... and that's a move up into resistance.  From there we'll wait until tomorrow to guess again.  My thoughts are that we see another move down that should retest yesterdays low and possibly the 2350 low.  So, I'm a short term bull (today) and bear possibly tomorrow.

ES Morning Update March 20th 2017

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ES Morning Update March 20th 2017

Happy Monday Morning to everyone.  The ES Futures look oversold this morning.  But I don't see some big rally starting again, but instead just some more rangebound trading.  My guess is that we won't go up through the falling blue trendline of resistance around 2377 at the open, nor drop below the support down in the 2360-2365 area.  It's looking more like the later part of today we'll see the MACD's rollover again and that's where we could see a move down into the support area.  The morning session we might see a small rally up to that blue falling trendline or just chop sideways for awhile.  I don't see much power lining up for the bulls this morning.  Odds favor the bears right now, but not in some big drop.  I don't see a strong bearish setup currently.  We could be rangebound between support and resistance for many days before the bulls make another run higher or the bears take control.  Anyway, that's all for this update.  Not much more to add.

ES Morning Update March 17th 2017

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ES Morning Update March 17th 2017

Futures seem to stuck now in a triangle and will probably stay inside the APEX of it all day today.  The downward sloping blue trendline is the resistance and the lower rising black trendline of the channel is the support.  I thought we might turn back up yesterday and hit the top trendline of the rising channel (before I added this new falling blue trendline) and then rollover today.  But that didn't happen as went down all day yesterday and hovered at the 2380 area of support.

So, let's keep it simple for today.  Since it's the monthly options expiration odds favor a range-bound day to pin the SPY where the most options expire worthless.  That's another reason to expect the futures (and the SPX cash and SPY) to stay in the APEX of the triangle not breaking through overhead resistance or losing support.  Triangle patterns are the most frustrating for both bulls and bears and naturally the favorite setup that SkyNet likes to use to keep every trader from making money.  That's all for today.  Have a great weekend everyone.

ES Morning Update March 16th 2017

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ES Morning Update March 16th 2017

Ok gang... the Fed's raised rates as expected and the (not so much talked about) date to increase the debt ceiling expired yesterday.  What does it mean you ask?  It means that the government will hit the $60 Trillion Dollar ceiling by May or June of this year and run out of money and will not be able to raise it again.  Of course they could have some emergency session I guess but the date to have voted to raise it was yesterday and they did nothing.  Couple that with the Fed's raising rates and it makes a nice setup for a disaster later this year.  Maybe that's the whole plan in the first place?  Just let Trump take the blame for it and refuse to work with him?

Anyway, for today we have the futures hitting the overhead resistance from the green rising trendline and the top of the rising channel overnight.  We also see the MACD's on this 60 minute chart rolling over, but odds are that it will turn back up at some point today to make a lower high on it, creating negative divergence for Friday.  The actual price of the ES Futures should creep higher and probably stay under the black rising trendline of the channel, but under the 2400 recent all time high.  The way they usually do this game is to get close to a double top to lure in the bulls and then pullback some (next week most likely but could start on Friday) to lure in the bears.  Then you ram it back up one more time to bust through the 2400 level by 15-20 points on some "stop run" that wipes out the bears.  Then it tops and pulls back into a decent correction that should be 80-100 points or more.

So, if I had to guess on how it will play out I'd say we dip a little early today and run back up later today for that "just under 2400" top.  This could stretch out into Friday but I'm leaning toward it happening today by the close.  Anyway, then you pullback on Friday to shake out the bulls and lure in the bears.  It should pullback to the lower black trendline of the rising channel that is pointing to around 2380 today.  Then on Monday that pullback should either extend a little lower (but still above the last important low of 2360) or most likely just turn back up and make another run higher to take out the 2400 level by Tuesday or Wednesday where it should run out of steam in the 2415-2420 area... assuming SkyNet follows the similar pattern it's done in the past.  That's my best guess on the likely scenario... tiny pullback early today, back up for another touch of rising trendline for lower high, down on Friday to 2380 area, back up early next week for new all time high.

ES Morning Update March 15th 2017

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ES Morning Update March 15th 2017

Well, it's looking more likely that the market will go back up after the FOMC meeting today.  This assumes no surprises from them!  We've seen this before where the market will pullback for a week or so before the meeting and run up afterwards, so this shouldn't come as an surprise if it happens again.  Naturally that doesn't mean that we don't have some wild moves up and down right around the event time, as that used too be a common thing.  We'd see big drops and big pops but by the end the day the market closed green a good 70-80% of the time if I recall.

Pattern-wise if the futures were to stop here and not go any higher then we could make a case for an "MA" pattern with the current move up making the left side of the "A".  The "M" has it's left top at 2380 on March 9th and it's right top on March 13th.  The two lows to make the bottom left and right of the "M" was at 2355 on March 8th and March 14th.  Anyway, if this stays an "MA" pattern then the downside projected is around 2340-2345.  But again, currently the common thing to happen here is to rally up after the FOMC meeting... so I wouldn't get short just based on that "MA" pattern.

Support and resistance are the same as yesterday.  We have the current yellow rising trendline that the futures are at right now and the lower black rising trendline of the channel.  Above that is 2380 from the prior high on the 10th, and the 2383 high on the 3rd.  Downside support is a revisit of the 2355 low on the 9th and the 2358 low from yesterday.  Not much else to say... just a wait and see game now until the FOMC is over with.  P.S.  Naturally if the right side of the "M" (currently at 2375 or so) is taken out to the upside then the "MA" pattern is invalid.

ES Morning Update March 14th 2017

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ES Morning Update March 14th 2017

It seems that support has broken overnight from the green rising trendline and the lower line of the rising channel.  However, I still wouldn't get too excited about some big move down as we all know the market is still in a waiting mode until the FOMC meeting tomorrow.

If we continue down the support is at the prior low of 2355 but the whole range from 2360-2365 seems like stronger support then the quick move down to 2355 was.  Naturally if we break that low then there not much support until the 2335 area, and then back inside the falling channel.  I don't see that happening so I wouldn't expect it or be looking for it... not today at least.  As for Wednesday after the meeting... anything is possible.  The market expects a rate hike but the Fed's could say something about the future that spooks the market I guess?  Again, I'm not expecting it but again... I'm not suppose too either.

On the way up we have resistance at the yellow falling trendline, which makes a triangle.  Overall I'm still not expecting a whole lot going on today.  It should be bearish early in the first half of today and maybe turn back to small bullish later on in the second half.  Clearly you can see the MACD's on this 60 minute chart are pointing down and should continue for several hours into the morning session.  Naturally that doesn't mean the actual price level of the futures will drop much as there's just no volume hardly to cause any major selling or buying... probably another crappy day in a tight range.

ES Morning Update March 13th 2017

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ES Morning Update March 13th 2017

ES Futures look to be opening about flat this Monday morning.  We have another FOMC meeting this Wednesday and they are expected to raise rates again.  Probability of this happening is around 90%, so it's not going to be any big surprise to the market when this happens.  So, I'm not expecting much action in the market prior to the meeting.  We'll probably see the futures do some chop to setup the next move after the meeting, which should be down... assuming the charts align up the way I expect them to?

For today, I think we'll move a little higher as the shorter time frame charts continue to move up from oversold last week.  Currently they are about neutal and should pop up above the zero line a little today as the market floats around on light volume again today just like does every Monday it seems.  More then just Monday's as this whole year has seen many extremely light volume days.  It makes you wonder if anyone is left trading besides the bots?

Anyway, support and resistance is the rising channel I've drawn today which is basically around 2365 up to 2385.  The green rising trendline is also support, which is right around the current price level that the futures are at right now.  Wave count wise we could be in some ABC down move with the 2355 low ending the A wave down, leaving us in the B wave right now.  It might last for several days and could easily breakdown into smaller waves before ending.  I'd expect some kind a squeeze higher to test the 2400 high at some point before or after the FOMC meeting.  Not sure if it's going to fall short of it or pierce through it a little, but this whole week looks to me like it's going to be a choppy B wave of some degree that will frustrat both bulls and bears.  The FOMC meeting might just be a "sell the news" event if this plays out like I think it will.

ES Morning Update March 10th 2017

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ES Morning Update March 10th 2017

Well gang... it's Friday!  Aren't you happy?  You can go party now... except that you are addicted to trading now and view the stock market as your party.  Then add in the fact that you are no longer 18 years old and can't handle the hangovers you get at your current age.  So you now look at the weekend as a time to do chores around the house while you look forward to Monday coming where you can gamble some more in the casino called the stock market.  Funny how things flip flop as you get older.  The weekends now sucks you have spend them around the house doing things while your trading Monday through Friday (aka... your work or job) is what you look forward too.  Such is life...

As for the market today so far all looks to be going as planned.  The futures turned back up and are in rally mode for what is probably some degree of a B wave up with the A wave down ending yesterday intraday at the 2355 low.  This B wave could breakdown into smaller waves or just be one straight wave up.  There's no way to know the answer on that but I'll speculate that it will breakdown into smaller waves that will drag it out into most of next week.  I say this based on the fact that next week is the monthly options expiration week and it's normally bullish.  What should happen is a pullback next week that doesn't take out the low of the A wave down, which is again 2355.  Then another rally up late in the week, probably after the Wednesday FOMC meeting... which should end the B wave up.  It will likely breakdown into some smaller ABC pattern with today's rally up starting the A part of the B wave up.

That's my preferred scenario, but the other possible scenario is rise up today that ends the whole B wave up.  I don't see it happening but it's possible I guess.  It would have to rally pretty strongly I think and burn through all the bears stops, reaching almost another higher high... but a double top or slightly lower high would be most likely.  This would be a move up to hit the bottom side of the yellow rising trendline, which is currently pointing to just a hair under 2400.  I really don't see that happening all in one day, but rather suspect we'll extend this B wave up into late next week before it ends.  At that point it should have no problem with a double top.  But if it completes it all today I'd certainly be worried about next week as it would likely setup a nasty wave down early in the week before the FOMC meeting that should easily take out the 2355 low with a target of the 2325-2340 area.

Alright, that's about all I see for now.  I think we'll just chop around today up near the opening gap up level and not pullback much, nor gain much more then the 11-12 points we are already up.  I wouldn't take a long up here or a short as they should chop this crap into the close to pin the SPY where it hurts the most options traders that play the weeklies, which expire today of course.  Have a great day today everyone and fun weekend (assuming you enjoy your chores you do as much as I do... LOL).

ES Morning Update March 9th 2017

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ES Morning Update March 9th 2017

Still not much to add this morning.  The 6 hour chart is again ready to turn back up but so far it's just been floating slowly lower.  I guess we need a flush-out drop to shake out the bulls before turning back up?  If not, then we might be in a slow choppy range for awhile.  But a turn back up is overdue now and could come at anytime as we are into a strong support zone right now.  Not much else to add today.  Just remember the "employment situation" is tomorrow and the FOMC meeting next Wednesday.  Anyway, odds favor a green close today... but I did say that yesterday too, right?  However, we all know that "this time is different"... LOL!

Now if we don't close green and instead have a flush out drop into the close then I'd feel pretty strong about a long going into Friday as it should be a nice bounce.  If we close green today without making a flush out move down then I'm neutral on Friday as it could go either way.  I'm still not really seeing any clear ABC move up, which suggests we are still in some bigger A wave down from the high last week.

But when it ends there should be a strong B wave up.  Whether it's one strong wave or breaks down into smaller waves is unknown, but once it ends we should see another wave down... a bigger C wave.  I'm not an expert at elliottwave so don't hold me to that.  My reasoning for that forecast is based more on the technical picture that I see on multi time frames for the SPX cash index and the futures.

I'm also looking at other indexes, like the Russell... which broke support yesterday.  It's showing weakness first, and that suggests to me that we could (should) have a larger pullback over the next few weeks.  So if this move down is indeed some larger A wave and we end it today or tomorrow then we'd likely see the larger B wave up next week going into the FOMC meeting... and it's also the monthly options expiration week, which normally bullish.  That leaves the 4th week of March for the next move down... call it a larger C or whatever, but technical's suggests a pullback for several weeks has started.

Just note that we all know how tricky the bulls are, so don't underestimate the strength of the larger B wave up that can start anytime (but my gut thinks it will be next week closer to the Fed meeting).  Meaning... that wave can do a double top of the recent high and not surprise me.  In fact in might even pierce through it a few points to wipe-out the bears that shorted it?  Just too early to tell right now.  For today let's just keep it simple and look for a long only on a flush out drop today with a red close.  If a green close then I'm flat for Friday with no opinion on the direction.

ES Morning Update March 8th 2017

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ES Morning Update March 8th 2017

Today's 6 hour MACD on the ES Futures is curling back up and we've had 3 red days since the recent top... both lead me to think we'll close green today.  I'm not sure if this is the end of the move down completely, but today has good odds of being an up day.  If they do some ABC up all in one day then that could leave the door open for another move down Thursday and/or Friday.  This 60 minute chart clearly has a much better looking positive divergence on its' MACD's then before, which supports this move up too.

My concern on whether this starts another run to 2400+ or rolls over again in a day is more based on the SPX Cash chart.  The daily chart is pointing down strongly on its' MACD's with no signs yet of turning back up.  Yesterday it closed below the 10 day moving average which was the first time since February 1st or so.  We have histogram bars that just went negative yesterday too, so these things all together suggest to me that after this bounce today and/or tomorrow there should be another move down to put in a lower low then yesterday before there's another rally beyond 2400 again.

I'm certainly not saying that the top is in and it's all down hill from now as we all know that there will very likely be another higher high at some point this year as the monthly chart is still very bullish.  But a pullback to reset these overbought charts is very overdue and much needed.  I think we could pullback all the way to the 2200 area and still maintain a bullish uptrend on the weekly and monthly charts.

Anyway, for today we still have the rising yellow trendline as resistance and some horizontal resistance a little lower in the 2375 area.  Downside support is the same as yesterday except that the falling channel has moved a little lower.  It's pointing to that 2340 area but I do not expect to see that today.  The rising yellow trendline is pointing to as high as 2390 but I don't think we'll even get close to that either.  Bears want a choppy day that completes an ABC of some small degree that closes green but doesn't go much higher then 2375-2380 or so.  That would probably be about a third of the move down retraced and enough for another move down Thursday and/or Friday.

Bulls want a red close today that should take out all the stops just below the 2355 horizontal accumulation area.  And what does SkyNet want?  I'd say a sideways day to keep both bulls and bears guessing, not letting an trapped bulls at on a good bounce or bears in to short from a better level.  A face ripper would be the other trick that SkyNet might do as it would have the bears second guessing on shorting it and the bulls not exiting their longs think we are going above 2400 soon.  I don't see that happening but remember... the bulls are the Fed's favored creature as they hate the bears fiercely, so anything is possible.

ES Morning Update March 7th 2017

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ES Morning Update March 7th 2017

Not much going on today from a news stand point.  The EIA petroleum Status Report is Wednesday at 10:30 am, then Jobless Claims on Thursday at 8:30 am and finally the Employment Situation on Friday at 8:30 am.  So, my thoughts are that today will be a slow choppy day as the market waits until later in the week for one of those events to get it going up or down.

Chartwise... it looks on the 6 hour chart like the MACD's are still pointing down but again, could turn back up anytime.  Considering the lack of any important news today my guess is they will continue "as is" and no big turn until later this week.  On this 60 minute chart we the MACD's did indeed dip yesterday to make a "higher low" so we could get a stronger positive divergence setup.  But, the bad news is that there's no news today and those MACD's are already at the zero level, which leaves them open to rollover again tomorrow if the Oil Report is viewed badly.  I think it's the Jobless Claims the market is more likely looking at but that's just me guessing.

Since next Wednesday we have the FOMC meeting where the market has priced in a rate hike of .25% this weeks' employment data could be viewed important as it "might" affect the rate hike coming?  No way to know for sure but with the market already so overbought still it's reasonable to expect some big swings up and down from Wednesday to Friday of this week as those news events come out.  Keep in mind the old saying about the Thursday/Friday low the week prior to the monthly options expiration is this week and we could easily put in a low with the news coming out later, which is before another Fed meeting.

Anyway, I'm not excited about the bull side today as while the MACD's on this 60 minute chart put in positive divergence they still look weak too me and therefore I think there's another move down coming later this week before another run back up to 2400+ happens.  Hopefully the bulls do some kind of ABC move up to short at today, but I'm not counting on much.  A green close though seems likely as we don't have too many times lately where you have more then two days in a row closing red.

Support is still the 2360 area as well as the lower trendline in the falling channel.  Resistance is the rising yellow trendline as well as the 2380 area where there was a prior high (and gap fill).  Ideal case for today would be a rally up the bottom side of the yellow rising trendline to 2380 or so to get overbought where it could drop again on Wednesday and/or into Thursday for a low around the 2350 level where a prior bottom was.  Nothing is ever that simple of course but I can dream a little can't I?

ES Morning Update March 6th 2017

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ES Morning Update March 6th 2017

Ok guys... it's a Monday!  What more needs to be say?  LOL!  You know the deal by now... more light volume is expected as traders get back to trading and trying to figure out the direction of the market.  Looking at this 60 minute chart of the ES Futures this time today we see some positive divergence building as the oversold MACD works it way back up.  On the 6 hour chart its still pointing down and looks like it's trying to turn back up a little as the black line of the MACD gets closer to the zero line.  But I'm not sure that it's ready just yet.  Since the market is so rigged for the bulls I had to mention the 6 hour chart and it's "possible" turn back up.

My gut tells me though that it will go deeper down to below the zero line and tag -2.5 like it did back on January 31st of this year.   You can look at last Friday's post to see a 6 hour chart.  This 60 minute chart suggests that we'll see it rollover at some point today as it gets closer to the zero level.  If it goes down and makes a higher low then the -3.4 to -2.6 low that was made on Friday then the actual level of the futures should drop lower as well to make a stronger positive divergence.  Looking a support on the chart the 2360-2365 area seems like a "given" that it will be hit at some point soon.  But with today being a Monday I'd kinda lean more toward some chop all day as that MACD grinds it's way back up.  And I don't really see the futures staging much of a rally today, instead I'd expect them to try to hold their ground and not break this mornings low.

Basically today should be a "pause" day before another drop... most likely on Tuesday.  It's then that the MACD's on this 60 minute chart will  likely rollover and put in a higher low on them and a lower low on the actual price of the futures.  It's also looking like this coming low could have the 6 hour chart deep enough for it to do a small hook back up and allow the positive divergence on the 60 minute chart to play out with some ABC rally up that day or into Wednesday.  Then we'll have to look again at the 6 hour chart to see if it suggests another ABC move down or if that ends the move?  Since this is the 2nd week of the month we could see that Thursday/Friday low come into play after a mid-week bounce.  Anyway, I'm not expect much today as I think we have another move down coming to test the 2360-2365 level, and I think we'll see it by Tuesday morning.

ES Morning Update March 3rd, 2017

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ES Morning Update March 3rd, 2017

Yesterday we found support at the black rising trendline and today we see it's fallen further to hit the yellow rising trendline where it's now bouncing at.  But, considering the steep angle that the MACD's on this 6 hour are still pointing down at I don't see much upside today.  At best they might erase half or so of yesterdays' down move but I do not see another run up for a higher high.  This 6 hour MACD is no where near ready to turn back strongly in my opinion and it only leaves the oversold 60 minute MACD (not shown here) to come back up all day and work off some of that oversold condition.

So I'd look for a lower high on the MACD's of that 60 minute chart and a continued move down on this 6 hour MACD.  This suggests to me that we might be riding this yellow rising trendline up all day and putting in a bear flag by the close, which should play out afterhours and/or into the weekend leaving Monday open for the move down to continue.  That's the idea situation too me, a nice slow day of grind up a rising trendline with a slightly green close.  If the yellow trendline of support breaks today then the 2360 area is the next support zone.

This whole move could simply be an ABC down with yesterday putting in the A down and today the B up, leaving C down for over the weekend and into Monday.  What happens after this move down ends I'm not sure yet?  We can never get too comfortable being a bear as the bulls do things we think are miracles but some how they do them.  So we'll have to wait until next week to determine if another run up for a new all time high again is likely or just a lower high that sets up another ABC down pattern.  For the short term today I'm calling for a slow grind up the yellow trendline with a green close likely.

ES Morning Update March 2nd, 2017

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ES Morning Update March 2nd, 2017

Well gang, the bears got a big whipping yesterday but today shouldn't be much more then just some sideways chop.  There's no negative divergence yet on the daily chart of the ES Futures which means at the minimum they plan to retest the highes from yesterday and probably make another higher high.  This 60 minute chart has worked off almost all of the overbought conditions from a high peak of 7.5 on the MACD's yesterday down to the 1-2 range this morning.  You should know the deal by now, the MACD's will curl back up at some point today or tomorrow and the futures will make another run for a higher high or at least a double top while putting a lower high on the move back up with the MACD's.   That creates the negative divergence on the 60 minute time frame but with the daily and 6 hour suggesting more room up to go it also suggests that the high isn't in yet and even if we pullback into early March another higher high is still likely later on.

But for the short term I just see some chop today.  I'm not sure on the "when" part for the MACD's turning back up but usually we see that when it gets close to the zero level.  So, we could drift down most of today and make the turn back up late in the day or in the morning on Friday... just no way to know for sure when this happens.  Support on the way down is the old black rising trendline pointing to around 2385 or so and the new yellow rising trendline pointing to around 2370 or so.  I really doubt if we see that level hit as it would erase all the gains yesterday, but the 2385 area is possible if we drift down slowly today.

Just know that it's more common for the bulls to chop sideways and not give up hardly any ground once they capture it.  Since that black rising trendlie is "rising" it could be around 2390 or so by tomorrow, which if the market chops sideways today it would just hit the trendline tomorrow and then we could see our turn back up.  All in all today doesn't look to be a day you can do much trading in.  I'd look for Friday to make that run back up where you could trade it long if you want to, or try to short it over the weekend at the close?  That takes a lot of guts of course as the bears are all but dead right now, so let's just wait until tomorrow to see what it brings us before thinking anything so stupid.

Dow Jones stock index hits best winning streak in 30 years

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Dow Jones stock index hits best winning streak in 30 years

The US Dow Jones stock index has closed at a record high for the 12th day running as Donald Trump promised a "big" infrastructure announcement.

It is the longest winning streak for the share index since January 1987.

Analysts said Wall Street was buoyed by hopes the US president would set out more on his spending and tax plans in a speech to Congress on Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the US's three main stock indexes, finished 15 points higher at 20,837.

Ahead of the speech, Mr Trump said: "We're going to make it easier for states to invest in infrastructure and I'm going to have a big statement tomorrow night on infrastructure."

The president also said he would seek to boost defence spending by $54bn (£43bn), a 10% rise, in his proposed budget plans for 2018.

As well as significantly raising infrastructure spending, Mr Trump has previously pledged to cut taxes for US businesses.

"For the moment, whenever he speaks of those upcoming plans, we get a leg up in the market," Peter Jankovskis, director of research at Oakbrook Investments, told BBC World Service.

"Whenever he's not talking, there's enough momentum to keep it moving forward."

The S&P 500 index also edged two points higher to 2,370, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite index rose 17 points to 5,862.

The biggest winners were shares in energy, financial and healthcare firms - areas that stand to gain if Mr Trump's policies spur faster economic growth, Mr Jankovskis said.

The Dow closed at record highs for 13 sessions in a row in January 1987, nine months before the Black Monday market crash.

 

Certainly interesting about 1987 but I don't expect a crash this year.  To me I think the really bad year is going to be 2019, but that doesn't rule out some surprise moves down this year.

Red

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