What can be said that hasn't already been said?  The market is insanely overbought now, and way too many indicators are rolling over now and pointing down.  The MACD Histogram's on the daily charts are pointing down, and have crossed over the zero line on many different indexes.  The MACD averages are rolling over and touching, or have already crossed over it.

So yes... we should correct down next week, but will we?  Friday is a holiday next week and the market is closed.  That means only 4 trading days... and yet the government is still going to release the jobs report on Friday.  Why didn't they move it up to Thursday?  Does that mean that the number is horrible?  Probably so...

Regardless, unless the big institutions start the selling, any retail selling will be bought up on light volume.  That doesn't mean I don't think we won't sell off some next week.  I could easily see the 1150 spx support level being tagged sometime next week.

However, breaking that support level and heading on down to the support area around 1115 spx, is probably not going to happen next week... UNLESS, some big political news happens to scary the market!  That's really what we bears are hoping for, isn't it?  It's sad that they won't let the market trade up and down fairly, so both bulls and bears could profit.  If that happened, then we wouldn't look forward to some war to break out, country to go bankrupt, or terrorist attack to happen.

Instead, they manipulate the market to such extremes that the only way it will fall is on some horrible news like that.  I really don't want to profit from something so negative, that could have people dying, just for the market to sell off.  Why can't they let it happen naturally, from bad earnings, jobs reports, etc... so that the market could actually be valued fairly is beyond my understanding.

Yes, I know they want to steal everyone's money, and make all the profit they can.  However, it could still be done without creating chaos, and putting innocent people on the streets by bankrupting the company they work at, just to eliminate the competition like Goldman did to Lehman brothers.

The point I guess I'm getting too, is that I don't see a big sell off without some really bad news (possible war event,  another country bankruptcy announcement, terrorist attack, swine flu, Greece defaults, you name it?).  The first level down is of course the 1150 area, then 1115 area, and finally the 1075 area... where I caught a 107.38 spy fake print and Sundancer caught a 107.82 spy fake print.

Ultimately, I think we are headed there... probably within the next month.  But, the government is smarter (more evil and corrupt is more accurate of a word), then I am... which means they could manipulate this market sideways in a choppy fashion throughout the next 6 months or so, and finally crash it in the fall.

A move down to 1115 might be all we bears get from them, as the weekly chart is still pointing up.  It needs to rollover soon, if we are to state that 1180 is the high.  If we manage to take out the 104 (spy) level, then I think the weekly chart will roll over and the market is done!

That stupid fake print tells me that we won't take it out, but instead rally back from that level and either put in a new high in the summer months or trade sideways in a range until this fall.  It's a really tough market to forecast, as it doesn't follow any patterns that can be tracked accurately.  Of course that's the way they want it... as we'd all be rich if it were easy to forecast.

So, let's not get our hopes up until volume comes back into the market.  That's unlikely to happen next week, as most traders will be waiting for the job's report on Friday.  Again, I do suspect that we will hit 1150 next week, as many traders will take some profit ahead of the report.  Plus, the end of the month and quarter window dressing is now over, and the big institutions can dump the shares they just bought, (so they could report to their clients that they owned them... as their clients will assume they have owned those companies for the entire 3 month quarter, but we know they only owned them for a few days).  That's window dressing my friends... clean up your house before the relatives come over for one day, and trash it the rest of the year!

Anyway, let's hope for something bad for the market too be announced... but not bad for people of course.  I don't want innocent people too be hurt or die for the bears to profit a little... but I wouldn't shed any tears for the thugs in Washington DC, or banksters!

http://www.taxfree15.com

Red

It's all about the Health Care plan now, as the market will likely react unfavorably to it passing.  Obama is dead set on screwing the middle class with this piece of crap bill.  It's going to cause premium rates go up for all customers as providers will be forced to cover everyone, including those with prexisting conditions.  Common sense tells you that insurance providers will raise rates across the board to pay for those people.

It's not fair to the healthy people to be forced to pay higher rates, but Obama is dead set on passing it.  Wall Street won't like it, and we bears are likely to see the correction that should have happened last month.  Because of all this manipulation since last year's low, Obama and the gang will likely cause the Great Depression 2, with a stock market at 3,000-4,000 Dow within the next 2-3 years.

I hope I'm dead wrong on that, but all the charts point to that area as the finally low, before any real recovery can happen.  If they would have stayed out the market, we might be recovering right now.  This process of slowly pulling the band-aid off the wound is more painful, and will do more damage, then to just pull it off quickly.  If will would have had Ron Paul as president, he stated that he wouldn't have bailed out the banks, and he would have most likely shut the Federal Reserve down.

That would have been the best thing to do, as the market would have probably put in a lower low then the March 6th, 2009 low, and then traded sideways for the last year building a solid bottom.  By now we could actually have been just starting a healthy rally.

Shutting down, or bankrupting the 5-6 largest (and crookedest) banks, along with the Federal Reserve would have actually made every American the equivalent of $10,000,000 dollars richer as that how much debt would have been erased from the system.  Basically, that's because the banks have stolen Billions of hard working American's money through the various bailout programs.  I didn't see my bailout money... did you see yours?

We really didn't stand a chance in the rigged election either as McCain would have also bailed out the banksters.  (So, I'd be all over him too if he had won).  Trying to get a politician into office that's "Honest" and has "Integrity" is almost impossible.  They usually don't have the funding to get noticed, and even if they do win some how, the crooked politicians won't work with them.  Nothing will ever get done, until you get enough honest people to overpower the dis-honest ones.

So what about the market?  I'd post some charts of the likely direction, but it's really worthless to do so until this bill gets passed... or not?  If it doesn't get passed, then you can expect more of the same old slow grind sideways to higher, as the big institutions aren't allowed to sell their shares until Obama and gang give them the OK.

If the bill passed, as I expect it to do so, we should certainly see another 10% correction... at the minimum.  Since it will be spring/summer soon, the market could then turn and go back up higher during those slow months.  I think the real fireworks are going to happen this coming fall/winter, as I don't think they will be successful in holding it up during that period.

But, for next week... assume the bill passes, we should see some selling.  Until that happens, I'm not wasting time posting charts.  I will say that 1150 area needs broken first, then 1115 area, and finally the double bottom area around 1045.  If will break that, then I don't see us going higher in the summer months.

So, I do believe that a correction is coming, but whether or not it's the start of the much anticipated "P3" or just another 10% correction is yet to be known.  Just for clarification, when I say 10%, I mean a correction similar to the one's we've already had... which haven't actually made it all the way down to exactly 10%.  Each one stopped just shy of a 10% correction.  If we do go all the way to 10% this time... the bear market might be back?

If you're a beaten up bear like me, you start becoming more cautious of making correction predictions, as I've been wrong so many times.  I know that every time I chart out a most likely path for any forecast correction, I get my foot stuck where the shine doesn't shine.  I'm going to be a lot more nimble now.

Of course that's exactly how they plan it... keep whipping the dog until all you have to do is pick up the newspaper and the dog will obey.  The government has succeeded in beating up every last bear to the point that they are either broke, just too scare to go short anymore, or have converted to being a bull.  I must admit, I'm too scare to go short... until I see the big institutions participating.  Without them selling, no down move will stick.

So, I'm expecting some selling next week... but I'm not shorting until I see how Wall Street reacts to the health care news.   There are many reason for the market to fall.  Not only is the market worried about the health care plan, but the Greece problem hasn't went away either.  The dollar is looking bullish too.  And I believe oil is also ready to fall.

There's also talk of raising the capital gains tax, which will drive money out of the stock market and into tax exempt investments, like municipal bonds, etc...  The longer this market stays up, the further it will fall.  That's the really sad part for the average non-trading American, as all this manipulation is going to wipe out what little savings they have left.

You have 33 states with unemployment over 15%, and at least 5 states are ready to go bankrupt.  There are so many reason for this market to tank, that I couldn't even list them all.  The more the government intervenes, the worst it will be.  If we had a truly free market, the bad apples would have already been removed from the basket, and some sort of real recovery could have already began.

But, we live in corrupt world where the rich get richer by stealing from the middle class to bribe the poor to vote them in office, or the candidate they support.  If you're poor you'll be fine as the government will give you your monthly payoff.  If you're rich you'll continue to sell your soul to stay that way.  And if you still have a job, then you're somewhere in the middle... regardless of how much you actually make, consider yourself a "middle class" American.  Meaning that your role in the Matrix is to work every day to serve others.  Kinda sucks, doesn't it?

But, at least you have the illusion of freedom.  You feel some what free... right?  Of course, you know that you're really not free... for if you were, you could pick up and go anywhere, anytime, and stay as long as you want too.  But, with a mortgage, wife, 2.5 kids, car payments, car insurance, health insurance (which will increase shortly), and who knows what other bills... you really aren't that free after all.

So we gamble in this casino game called the stock market, thinking that's it's not actually gambling because we can use some form of technical analysis to logically predict where the market is going... only to realize that the market doesn't operate on logic, but instead it operates with the sole purpose of taking your money.  Kinda like Vegas... isn't it?  Well, at least you could get free drinks in Vegas...

Red

I guess we are back to the "Shoulda' Woulda' Coulda'" forecasts for the market now.  Yes, it should have already rolled over to the downside.  And it would have done so if we had any real volume in the market.  But, it also could still go higher?  There... now I've covered it all!  LOL!

As for next week... once again, it should roll over to the downside.  Will it?  Who knows?  This market is so controlled it isn't even fun anymore.  Any selling is quickly bought up by computer bot programs, and as long as the big institutions won't sell their shares, the little guys will never succeed in pushing this market back down.

It's truly up to the big institutions, as the selling will only stick when they start selling.  When?  I don't know, but we seem too be very close.  Too many signs of this damn cracking are appearing now.  Eventually one of those big boys will hit the panic button, and the rest will follow.

I heard somewhere that this last week ranked in the top 10 lightest volume weeks for the last 6-7 years.  And it's March!  WTF?  I'd expect it in the summer, or around a major holiday, but not during the month of March.  Man... when this market manipulation finally fails to work anymore... look out below, as this pit might be bottomless!

One of the signs that the market is cracking is the fact that both oil and gold sold off Friday, while the dollar was getting hammered.  Good ol' Ben was out in force on Friday, the dollar got kicked in the groins again.  The poor little dollar... you actually feel sorry for it.  It's the governments' punching bag it seems...

Also notice that the market did not rise proportionally to the dollar being sold.  The market actually ended down by a fraction.  It should have been up 100 points or more on the Dow, with the dollar getting sold off so hard.  It didn't... which clearly indicates that this inverse relationship between the two is struggling badly.  Eventually, it will cease to work, and the market will sell off with the dollar.  When?  Unknown... but these current observations are clearly pointing to a top in the market.

The VIX has also inched it way up, which is another indicator that we are nearing a top, or already at one.  Volume is all we need in the market.  Give me volume, and I'll give you selling!  It's really that simple!  The pit bulls (big institutions) are currently on their leash and sitting still as their master (the government thugs - Timmy, Benny and Obama) have told them to do so.  And for now, they are listening.  Soon they will get hungry, and break that leash.  Then the fun starts!

One more thing... let's also not forget that the Fed's are cutting back on their Quantitative Easing, as Obama stated recently that they will be trying to reel back in the money they've put out into the system.  Good Luck on that Mr. Dreamer!  Goldman already moved that money into the Cayman Islands...

I'd post some charts, but what's the point... the market is going to continue up, until they want to sell it.  Charts, Astrology, Moon Cycles, etc... don't affect a computer bot buying machine.  All that is calculated based on real people... that have emotions.  Machines don't have emotions, so a lot of the traditional ways to predict the market are history.

Welcome to the machine...

Let's hope that this isn't what happens to the stock market and the economy in the next few years...

Red

Sorry gang... I got really busy today, and didn't have time to do a Monday post.  Doesn't look like I missed anything anyway... I'll get one up Tuesday.  Meanwhile... make the market sell off, would you? LOL

Is it over?  Is it finally over?  I mean the slaughtering of the bears last week of course.  Not quite yet, as the bulls are just too close to 1150 to stop now.  It would shock me if they didn't push up a little more and put in a double top.  After that, well that another story...

It should be quite obvious to everyone by now that the big institutions haven't been buying or selling while this light volume market floats up to the clouds everyday.  Why?  Because they already bought at the low last February the 5th.  They are now waiting for a final top to be put in before they unload again... to the unsuspecting public of course.

Look at this chart below (from Cobra's website) that shows where all the gaps are on the way up from that 104.58 spy low.  (He drew rectangle boxes to point them out).   Notice that there were also gaps on the way down from 115 to 104, and that all of those gaps have now been filled... except for one.  That area between 114.50 and the 115.14 high still hasn't been filled.  That's why the market will continue up on Monday or Tuesday most likely, and fill that gap.

In the chart above, note that the closing price on January the 29th was 107.39 spy.  Remember that I was able to catch a fake print on February the 17th, showing 107.38 as the low of that print.  Odd huh?  Is that where we are heading next?  Or possibly a newer fake print I caught today (March 6th, 2010) of 105.47 spy.  Something is weird here.

Maybe that print was always there, and I just missed it?  I don't know?  It's an old print now, as the date is from December 14th, 2009.  Here's another one when I go back 6 months on the chart (I only went back 3 months in the chart above).

The low on November 18th, 2009 was 103.78 spy (that's the fake print number, not the real low for the day).  Again, maybe these prints were already there, and maybe they don't mean anything.  But, you should still keep those numbers in the back of your mind, as the previous major fake print of 1047.28 SPX did play out as the market dropped to 1044.50 just a month later on February the 5th, 2010.  Of course it pierced the fake print level a little, but the hard reversal back up... with very large volume, was a clear sign that the fake print was accurate.

Back to next week...

What will cause a sell off to happen, you ask?  How about some more bad news too be realized, so that the media will have something to blame the sell off on.  The big institutions are going to start unloading those shares soon.  When is still unknown?  Since they haven't participated in buying on the way up, it's unlikely that they will start buying now, so that the market can push though the double top resistance and start a new bull rally.

I guess it's possible, but highly unlikely at this point.  They have had plenty of bad news released in the last month to give them a reason to sell and take profits.  I think we are going down to the 104 level for a double bottom.  The 200dma is about there now, and probably will be at 104 by the time we get back down there.

How fast it gets there is really based on what level they want to close the SPY on by option expiration.  I'm not sure if they will take one week, two weeks, or the rest of the month?  Regardless, once they take it down to the level that have targeted (I'm only forecasting the double bottom area.  It could only go down to put in a higher low), I do believe it will bounce back hard.

From that point... I don't know?  Will the possible double bottom put in a solid support and allow a rally to go up and break the 1150 top?  Or, will we only bounce to some Fib level, and then fall back again... taking out the 104 level on that trip?

The weekly chart still hasn't had a cross back down on the moving averages.  The 20ma is still above the 40ma, which tells me that the trend is still up.  Also, the MACD is still putting in lower Histogram bars and they are still smaller, and rising to the zero mark.  Will they cross and and go positive, putting in a lower tower then from the March 2009 area?

That will really depend on how much money the Fed's decide to pump back into the market.  Right now, they are trying to pull back the quantitative easing.   The average Joe trader doesn't have any money to put in this market, as they are probably trying to draw unemployment right now.  The crooked banks aren't going to use their stolen profits to pump the market up more.  So, that leaves the government.

At this point, the government is getting a lot of heat from other governments around the world, about the massive printing of the dollar.  That of course devalues it, and since other countries hold dollar denominated notes of some kind, they stand to lose billions as the dollar goes down.

Which leads me to believe that the government can't afford to put too much more money into the market.  That will put a topside limit on how high the market can go during the summer months.  How high you ask?  I can't answer that, as the top could already be in, or more stimulus money could push it up higher to 1300 or higher?  The 200 week moving average is at 1227.67 today, and then there is the peak in May of 2008 around 1320 area.  That would be the next level of resistance.  It's too hard too tell right now.

My personal feeling is that they will go down to sideways throughout the summer, not taking out the 1150 high, but not totally crashing below 900 either.  Then later this year, a big sell off.  The in-between area from Spring to Summer could go either way?

Ok, enough of the longer term picture...

Let's move on to next week.  Since there will probably be a ton of people waiting to go short at 1150, I don't think it will happen.  Instead, I see two possibly scenario's.  One, we go just shy of 1150, maybe to gap window on the 60 minute chart... which is about 114.50 spy, just a hair above where we closed on Friday.  Then the sell off starts, not allowing the retail trader to get in on a short position.  Or two, we go up to the 1150 level and pierce it by going a little higher.  Anyone who went short would get squeezed, which would be the fuel needed to push up another 10 points or so.

Either way, a sell off is likely to occur afterwards.  I really don't see the market getting through the double top, as a lot of bears are going to jump on at that level.  I think they will continue adding short positions on any pierce of that level too.  With that much selling pressure, and institutions wanting out of their long positions too, where is the money going to come from to rally higher?  Will Goldman buy at 1150?  I think not...

Most likely Goldman will be selling on every touch of 115, providing even more resistance to the unsuspecting retail bulls.  We could trade flat for a few days, bouncing up to 115, and down to 112.50 while the big boys unload their shares.  The problem with that idea is that they have very large positions, and when they really decide to sell their shares, the market will sell off hard.

However, it won't be the bears pushing the market down, it will be the big institutional bulls.  So, I can see some light at the end of the tunnel now, as I believe this bull train is coming to a stop.  Get your boarding tickets out bears, and be ready to climb aboard.  Next stop... Dark Territory.

Red

_______________________________________________________

Update for Monday...

No point making a special post for Monday as this was about the flattest day of trading I've seen in a long time, and nothing has changed.  The volume was the lowest all year, with only 106 million shares traded on the SPY.  Since Monday's are usually the most bullish day of the week, and the spy only moved up .01 cents, not making a double top as many people expected... I'd say that's pretty bearish.

A big move is coming... up or down, who knows?  I suspect down, but the market seems to fool me every time I say that.  So, I'll only forecast a big move  (I've ate enough crow to fill my belly for many weeks).

Red