Well, the Fed day is over with and rates will be raises as expected. The futures have rolled over and now look to be in pullback mode for several days. This 6 hour chart gives you a better picture then the normal 60 minute chart as it gives you a clearer look at the MACD's, which are pointing down nicely now. There is also a nice bear flag showing up with the down move yesterday making the flag pole and the three sideways bars (each bar is 6 hours) making the flag.
It certainly looks to me like we'll be dropping for a few days at this point. Possibly the 60 minute chart could turn back up and hold the price level in a tight range today, maybe even close green? But it doesn't look like it has the power to make a new all time high today or even get to a double top. The best the bears could hope for is a slightly green close to short into Friday for the breakdown of the bear flag. This assumes it doesn't breakdown today of course as predicting the breakdown point is tough sometimes.
Support on the way down is right around 2200 for the strongest area. Minor support around 2240 or so. To me this looks like we'll see some kind of ABC move down for our pullback and then back up for the Santa rally to retest the highs again (and probably break them to hit the old 230 FP on the SPY, which again is about 2300 SPX). But of course nothing is "for sure", so let's cross that bridge after the pullback is finished and the rally starts. For now I'd look for slow and controlled pullback for a few days to get the charts oversold while keep the point loss on the price level to a minimum.
It’s hard for Scarlett Johansson to talk about her new film, Ghost in the Shell, without diving into some of the same esoteric philosophical debates at the center of its source material, Mamoru Oshii’s groundbreaking 1995 anime: What is it that makes us human? Is it our physical being, or is it our experiences?
In Rupert Sanders’s forthcoming live-action Ghost in the Shell, Johansson plays an elite government-issued cyborg known solely as The Major whose body has been replaced with cybernetic parts — but her human brain is still intact. “She’s not living a human existence,” the actress told MTV News during a press event in Tokyo. “She’s not living a fully robotic existence, either.”
Johansson described the film as less of an origin story and more of a “coming-of-age story” for The Major. The decision to cast Johansson as Major Motoko Kusanagi, as she’s known in Masamune Shirow’s original manga series, drew ire from fans who criticized it as yet another example of Hollywood whitewashing. However, Sanders stands by his decision, telling MTV News and a group of reporters in Tokyo, “Whenever you cast someone, someone’s going to be critical of it. To me, I stand by my decision. [Johnansson’s] the best actress of her generation.”
Sanders also made it clear that Ghost in the Shell isn’t a remake of Oshii’s genre-defining work; it’s a reimagining. When we meet The Major at the beginning of the film, her job is her main focus. She has dedicated herself to thwarting cybercriminals and hackers partly because she feels disconnected from herself.
“She never sleeps. She never really shuts off,” Johansson said. “She has vague memories of who she was before she became The Major and she has a connection to who she was through her relationship with [Juliette Binoche’s character] Ouelet and the people who work at Hanka — they remind her of what her story was — but the experiences that they’re living around her are totally unfamiliar to her.”
With the introduction of Michael Pitt’s cyberterrorist Kuze, a full cyborg similar to The Major, she begins to question the very nature of her own existence. “She starts to have these glitches and flashbacks of things she’s not really sure if she remembers or if they’re things that were implanted in her,” Johansson said. “As she gets closer to the enemy, she strangely gets closer to herself.”
The film ultimately asks an important question: Are we who we are because we’re a product of our past, or are we who we are because of the experience that we’re living? One of the only characters The Major confides in with these philosophical queries is Batou (Pilou Asbæk), her right-hand man in the Section 9 task force.
“I think Batou is the character that Major feels the closest human connection with,” she said. “He’s someone who is very much himself. He’s been through the tragedy and loss of war. He’s lived a very human experience. She’s curious about that. Through his experiences, she feels like she’s able to absorb some of them and understand how the past informs the person that you are.”
“It’s also a playful relationship, and in some other universe, it’s romantic — or it could be,” she added.
Still, The Major’s existential crisis doesn’t feel that unfamiliar to Johansson, whose roles in films like Her and Under the Skin have explored a similar sense of detachment between the real and synthetic. It’s a challenge that the actress finds intriguing: stripping away all of the nuances and physical ticks that make us human. With The Major, who is disconnected from her human body, the challenge for Johansson became “that split second when your brain is telling your robot body it’s doing something — what’s that like?”
However, with Ghost in the Shell, Johansson admitted, “I think I’ve pushed that genre as far as I can go.”
Ghost in the Shell hits theaters March 31, 2017.
Guys, remember that is was the movie "Lucy" that she also played in where we got the mini-crash date on her passport showing August 24th 2015. Could this movie have more codes in it showing the next crash date?
We are finally here gang... Judgement Day (as said in the Terminator Movie). What will SkyNet do with the market after the FOMC minutes are released? Will it run the longs out of town on fear with a quick drop? Or will it tighten the vice a little more on the bears with another squeeze higher into the old FP on the SPY of 230? Only time will tell of course.
My thoughts are two fold... one thinks we'll hit the FP by Friday of this week from some final squeeze after the FOMC meeting. The second thinks we might have already topped and will pullback 40-80 point going into Christmas before the Santa rally takes us back up to hit the 230 print by the close of this year. Either one forecasts the fake print will be hit.
I'd love to have a crystal ball and tell you where it's going and when, but I don't. Most traders are pretty fed up with this non stop grind up every day with next to nothing for a pullback. But that's the new market it seems. SkyNet knows traders are counting waves and looking for pullbacks to get in a trade on... so it doesn't give it to you. It's up 200-300 SPX point, then a one day mini-crash of limit down 100 points, and back up again for 2-3 months with tiny pullbacks of 5-10 points. Yeah, it sucks... but that's life in the S&P500 as it's clearly the most heavily manipulated market in the world.
Anyway, enough about that. Let's just see what happens after the FOMC meeting. Remember that in the past most meeting days had the market closing green. So even after some shakeout to the down side they usually reversed it back up into the close. Will it happen this time is the question of course as many old patterns and statistics just don't seem to be as accurate now days as they were in the past.
Not much to add guys. We are inching up a little more this more getting closer and closer to that old FP on the SPY from last November. At this rate we should hit it before this week ends I think. Again, 230 on the SPY is around 2300 on the SPX Cash and just a hair under that on the futures. The December futures that expire this week are running about 5 points lower then cash right now but that can change with the roll to the new contracts for March of 2017. Regardless, the 2300 area is the target +/- a few points lower or higher.
Anyway, today is likely to be another boring day as everyone waits for Janet Yellen to tell us if the Fed's are going to raise rates or not? I really doubt if the decision matters as whatever it is the market has likely already priced it in. Plus we know the target via the FP on the SPY. So we just drink some more coffee, yawn a little while we do it, and leave early today as the market gives us nothing to do but watch.
Good Monday Morning to everyone. Looks like we might have finally stalled out the bulls for a day at least as chart suggest a flat to slightly down day. No point in going into a long drawn out update here as we all know the market is likely to continue this light volume movement until the FOMC meeting this Wednesday.
With the SPY closing at 226.51 last Friday it seems more and more likely that we'll see that 230 FP from last November 14th, 2015 hit at some point soon. Most likely we'll see it within 1-2 days after the FOMC meeting I'm thinking. Possibly it could be hit from some shake out squeeze up right after the minutes of the meeting are announced at 2pm this Wednesday? Hard to know the when part of course but I suspect we'll see it by the end of this week seems likely.
Short term it looks like we could finally see the rising trendline come into play by the close today or even afterhours as if we chop sideways to slightly down we should hit it at some point soon. As for trading it... I don't see anything that looks like a great setup right now.
Pretty amazing the strength of the market right now. I thought the bull flag would need more time to play out but it played out midday yesterday never even getting close to the rising trendline of support (pointing to around 2235) that I thought it might touch first before lifting of higher again. But the market had other plans it seems. If only I could figure out the dates that all FP's are supposed to be hit it would make it much easier for sure. At least we have the 230 FP on the SPY from last year, which at this point I'd have to say is the target this market wants to go to. That's about 2300 on the futures and SPX and while that might seem crazy it very well could be hit by the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. If it doesn't hit before it then my guess is that they will do some fast squeeze up to that level right after it.
Now the big question is... will the market top there and turn back down? I wish I knew the answer but I don't. In the past all the FP's I've captured were only targets that "they" planned on hitting, but not always "turning points". Some were and some just consolidated there and continued in the same direction.. However, considering the fact that the FOMC day could be when it happens I'd have to think a turn would be more likely as we've seen many many Fed day produce a turn within a couple of days after the meeting. Anyway, there's not much else to go on for an upside target. They reset the MACD's on this 60 minute chart back down to neutral, so it could turn back up and continue higher today... or just drift lower and chop sideways into that black rising trendline I spoke of earlier. At least some short term top seems likely within a few days as the VIX is near record lows and has a history of bouncing from that zone many times in the past.
Here we are again it seems. Another dude news event that most though would move the market but instead we are flat this morning. So, as you can all see this sideways move afterhours and premarket has produced a nice bull flag on this 2 hour chart of the ES Futures. Considering that market is always trying to go higher and prevented from crashing through support from the Fed and the ECB in Europe I have to think this bull flag will play out. But I certainly wouldn't chase it up for anything more then just a quick daytrade scalp. Too me the risk of a fast drop is much greater then another big squeeze higher like yesterday. Ultimately it looks like they are trying to hit the old FP on the SPY from last November 14th of 230, or 2300 on the SPX/ES. Maybe they hit it next week when the Fed's have the next FOMC meeting?
Anyway, what I'd look for today is a sideways action until they reset the 60 minute chart enough to turn back up again for this bull flag. If they can't get it today (remember that it's common to have a "pause" day after a big move up like yesterday) I'd look for it to play out afterhours or premarket going into Friday. The area to watch is the rising trendline pointing to 2225 right now. The futures should continue sideways until that line rises enough to meet the price level. By then the short term (overbought) charts should reset enough to turn back up and rally from that rising trendline hit. For the bears you'd want to see that line get broken today, as if it did then we should retest the 2200-2210 support zone. Naturally at this point the "cup and handle" pattern spoken of yesterday and the day before has played out and the odds of pullback to the 2185 area have pretty much vanished for now.
On another note, as I'm sure you've seen the news by now... the ECB surprised the market by "tapering" its' massive bond-buying program from next April and the Fed's are hinting that they won't raise rates with next weeks' meeting on the 14th. Crazy indeed as rates needed to be raised badly. But I guess they want to goose the market to even higher levels so the crash that follows will be even bigger. We all know it's coming... the question is when?
Once again... not much going on in the market, just more chop. Today is "Pearl Harbor Day" and my grandfather's birthday. If he were still alive (he died in 2005) he would have been 101 years old. Pretty amazing to think he was born in 1915 and went through the great depression as a young teenager. I remember him telling me that his first house cost him $800 and that it was just some beat up all shack out in the country. It had no running water or electricity if I recall correctly. Times must have been extremely hard back then... I can't imagine. Today we live a lazy life addicted to the internet and a thousand television channels. Sometimes I wish for the simpler life, but I don't want to give up all these modern conveniences.
Anyway, the market looks again like it's just waiting for some news to make its' next move. That news is likely the ECB meeting on Thursday (for this week) and the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. Seasonality wise we should start pulling back into mid-December and rally back up during the Santa rally (which starts the first trading day after Christmas). But nothing about this year is normal and thinking it will follow past patterns just probably something we shouldn't do. Many things seem reversed or delayed this year so possibly the opposite happens and we go into mid-December with a high instead of a low? That basically next week around the FOMC meeting, where we could then drop into the last half of December before Santa rescues us.
The bottom line is simple... the market is clearly just in chop mode until some news event moves it. Tomorrow will be the chance to see some reaction from the ECB news and then next Wednesday. Many others are calling for 2240 area before a top and drop. That's possible I'm sure but if it happens on as slow grind up then it's not likely the top. We need to see some fast squeeze up to that level on some news and then it could top and drop. If the ECB doesn't do it tomorrow then maybe the FOMC does next week? On the short term though a retest of the 2185 zone could (should) happen before this week ends. It's not a trade I'd take though as we all know how well the bulls seem to hold a level and not give it up until they are completely exhausted and then we wake up to another mini-crash... LOL!
Not much to add as the low volume choppy continues. Clearly the market wants to go higher but it's yet to make another higher high. It has the "pattern" setup in the bulls' favor as we can now see a nice "cup and handle" showing. If the pattern works the futures should add about 20 more points on the current 2205 area, or about 2225. If the pattern fails then we should see a C wave down happen, that again should take us to the 2160 area.
The market is clearly trying to hold its' gains and not pullback like it should. We are all used too this manipulation now so it's not any surprise to me. However, we also know that everyone is a bull now calling for DOW 20,000 and SPX 2300... which tells me the bull bus is too full. While it could rally up to those levels at some point in the futures I just don't see it starting this week. I still see another pullback with the 2160 area being the first support zone, and most likely area to stop at. But, it looks like it's too early in the week for this to happen.
If this move does appear it should show up on Thursday or Friday of this week. We have the ECB meeting this Thursday where they decide on how their monetary policy just like our Fed's do on FOMC days. That could be day we see some shakeout drop, or scream higher? All in all we are just chopping sideways in a range similar to many other periods in the past before some big drop appears out of nowhere. Any big drop probably won't happen until next year in January. This month we should see some type of pullback before the FOMC meeting next Wednesday the 14th, but again it might not be much on the downside.
I'd be more worried if the opposite happened and instead the market rallied up into the FOMC meeting with some new higher high as that would be bearish for the rest of the month I think. Anyway, predicting the future that far out is too hard with all the manipulation. So let's just stick with today, which I think will not make another 10-15 point move higher but instead just chop sideways or drop a few points. I don't see and big drop unfortunately, just another day with no clear direction.
The last few weeks have been difficult for sure, but with enough time all things get better. Now it's time to get back into this market and figure out what the next move is. It will take me some time to get back in sync with it of course but right now the writing on the wall looks fairly clear. To me it looks like we are in a topping area and will chop around the 2200 level for awhile as the insiders sell to the sheep. This doesn't mean that the current top is the all time high that won't be taken out, as they could double top it again and slightly pierce it. But the risk to the downside will likely increase over the coming weeks and we very well could see another January drop like we did this year.
On the short term this week is of course the 2nd week of December and you all know that the market makers like to take it down this week so they can sell puts to the retail sheep and then run it back up next week to make those puts expire worthless. It's the old Thursday/Friday low that seems to work out 80% of the time or so. Considering that we are pretty exhausted up here at this topping area I could see it working this time as well. The slow drift down from the current high into the Friday low could have been the start. It looks like some kind of A wave down to me with the B wave up happening right not before the open. If this is correct then a C wave down could take us to the 2160 area where the next support is at.
In short, I don't see much on the downside yet as this month is usually a low volume period which supports more of a trading range being created from the current high to some lower point (maybe the 2130 area?). So over the next several weeks I think we'll see that range form but big drops don't seem likely yet. Probably more like the choppy July period of 2015 before the August crash (not saying that we'll have another crash in January though.. but a nice drop seems likely). Anyway, I'm back to normal postings every day but of course will take the Christmas holiday's off like everyone else.
Last Wednesday the 16th of November 2016 around noon my mother had a Pontine Hemorrhagic Brain Stroke. She died on Friday night around 10 pm EST. The funeral was Tuesday, November 22nd 2016. My dad died earlier this year on March 6th so its been a tough year. He was the love of my mothers life and I know she was very lonely without him. For me my mother was my spark as I didn't know my dad that well. But my mother was like an angel in kindness and giving lifestyle. She will be missed tremendously by everyone that knew her and double that with me. She fell in love with my dad back when she was 17 years old when he met her in the strawberry patch that my grandfather grew and made the 3 girls go pick. My mother (Mary Sue Black Perry) was the oldest of those three sisters at 75 leaving behind her 74 year old sister Barbara Ann Finley and 70 year old sister Sarah Elizabeth Schofield, who is now on her 8th week in the hospital hanging on each and every day with too many problems to list here.
My grandfather used to chase my dad (Daniel Gene Perry) off as he didn't want him dating my mother. But she loved him and chased him all her life. Finally, after many girlfriends and 3 marriages (and divorces) my mother finally became my dads last wife in 2005. She never dated or married anyone that entire time as she was determined to marry the only man she ever loved. It was a dating relationship from age 17 to age 64 for my mother and different lifestyle for my dad. She was the angel attracted to bad boy I guess. She couldn't help her love and put up with too much crazy stuff to list here. Even after his death he impacted her as it was as if he was this dark flame of light that she was trapped with all her life and after it went out she couldn't go on without that flame. But, she died peacefully and did not suffer one minute I believe. I'm sure she is in heaven now and finally at peace. She was a wonderful mother as I couldn't have been more bless then to have her raise me.
I remember the few times she had to spank me for not minding her. She would tell me to go to bed and I would test her and stay up a little longer. Then she would warn me that if I didn't listen and go to bed in the next 5 minutes that she would have to spank me. When I got the spanking I would naturally cry and tell my mother I hated her like most kids did. She would tell me she loves me and that it hurt her more then me as she didn't want to spank me but knew I had to learn. Overall she told me I was a great kid and didn't get into much trouble at all. I am extremely glad to have had her as my mother in this life and will miss her very much. I will love her the rest of my life and never forget the lessons she taught me. May she finally be happy in heaven.
For my regular morning updates and the chatroom. I will be in an out of the room the rest of this week and will resume normal updates next week. I have a lot to do this weekend as I'll be moving into my mothers house. Plus it's Thanksgiving this week and the stock market isn't likely to do a whole lot. Thank you all for you patience and understanding for the time I've taken off.
Yesterday I suggested we would stay in the triangle and then most likely breakdown today or Thursday. It looked good most of the day but then the last few hours the futures rallied up out of the triangle and made a run for a new "higher high" then the election squeeze. It didn't happen during normal hours but I told everyone in the room it would likely continue higher after-hours and take out the bears' stops and then rollover this morning. So far that's working out correctly.
Now for today we'll likely have two scenario's that can play out and both are bearish. The first one is that we continue on down falling back into the triangle and finding support at the 2150 area again. The second scenario is that we trade sideways where we either ride the old yellow rising trendline back up to 2175 or so, or the falling trendline that makes the top of the triangle. That one points to 2165 into the close and is also where the other yellow rising trendline meets it as well.
MACD's on most all of the time frames for the ES Futures now show lower highs, which is called "negative divergence" while the price level made a higher high after-hours. This tells me we have lower to go but since the market moves in waves and since we are still in a "normally bullish" monthly option expiration week, I'd lean toward scenario two where some kind of sideways move (either slightly up or slightly down) would happen today.
Therefore the first wave 1 down (or A wave?) would be this mornings' gap down and at some point the sideways "wave 2" (or B) will show up and take us into the close. Then the wave 3 down (or C) will happen Thursday morning. The bottom of this move might only be a retest of the 2150 area now? I say this because the market trying very hard not to lose that area. The run up after-hours to make a new high is a clear sign that the market is stronger then expected, whereas if they failed to get through the top of the triangle (around 2170 yesterday) and then rolled over like this morning I think we would be headed for the 2130 area. But now that we've rallied up 15 points higher after-hours I'm lowering the odds on a move to 2130 and looking more for 2150 again.
Thursday is more likely to be the day where we bottom on this move I think and then Friday they can pin the market where it hurts the most traders making the most amount of options expiration worthless. Ever since they busted up through the 2145-2155 zone of resistance they working extremely hard to hold it. That makes sense I guess when you think about it as "if" they were to lose it again and head toward the 2130 area it would be really hard to regain that lost ground again. I think on the bigger picture we are going to stay range-bound from the current all time high down to the 2150 zone the rest of this week and then next week breakout to finally tag that magical 2200 level. Naturally we should pierce it a little. In the past "common" pierces were about 15-20 points. Just like on on the DOW we might see 200-400 points on a pierce of 19,000 when this all happens.
So for today I'd look for the usual bounce at the open, then the move back down lower, where is should lose momentum within the first few hours of the day and find a bottom. Then a small sideways (again, slightly up or down) into the close seems likely. By the close we could see another setup for a drop again on Thursday. This of course depends on the depth of the move down this morning and the rally back up later.
At UN climate talks in Morocco, countries say they are prepared to move ahead without the US.
President-elect Trump has said that he will "cancel" the Paris Climate Agreement within 100 days of taking office.
Negotiators in Marrakech say that such a move would seriously damage the credibility of the US.
But fossil fuel supporters say Mr Trump's plans prioritize the needs of American families.
Cancelling the deal
The election of a candidate viewed with horror by many environmental campaigners, has cast a significant shadow over COP22 - the annual meeting of climate delegates from almost 200 countries.
They have come to Marrakech to work on the nuts and bolts of the Paris Climate Agreement.
However the election of Mr Trump now poses something of a threat to the deal signed less than a year ago in the French capital.
The treaty commits governments to take action to keep global temperatures from rising by 2C above pre-industrial levels and to do their best to keep that rise to less than 1.5 degrees.
But Mr Trump has promised that within 100 days of taking office he would "cancel" the agreement and "stop all payments of US tax dollars to UN global warming programmers".
Aware of Mr Trump's intentions, countries speedily ratified the Paris deal and it became a binding part of international law on 4 November.
Climate activists protested at Trump's election outside climate talks in Morocco
If the new president wants to take the US out of the agreement, the process will require four years before he is free of it.
But while that might frustrate Mr Trump, he has also promised within his first 100 days, to rescind the executive actions that President Obama has taken to limit US emissions of carbon.
The key element of the Obama scheme was the Clean Power Plan, that aimed to severely restrict CO2 from energy production.
On the campaign trail, Donald Trump repeatedly denounced the costs of the plan and said he would reverse it.
"It also means scrapping the EPA's so-called Clean Power Plan, which the government itself estimates will cost $7.2bn a year. This Obama-Clinton directive will shut down most, if not all, coal-power electricity plants," he told an audience in New York in September.
The President-elect's plans to renege on the Paris Agreement and push forward with coal have been condemned by green groups globally.
"Trump's election is a disaster, but it cannot be the end of the international climate process," said May Boeve from 350.org.
"We're not giving up the fight and neither should the international community. Trump will try and slam the brakes on climate action, which means we need to throw all of our weight on the accelerator."
In Marrakech, where up to 20,000 participants from all over the world are trying to advance the Paris Climate Agreement, there was a strong sense that the President-elect's promises wouldn't sabotage the deal.
"I'm sure that the rest of the world will continue to work on it," Moroccan chief negotiator Aziz Mekouar told wire agencies.
Others felt that the practicalities of office may change Mr Trump's tone.
"Now that the election campaign has passed and the realities of leadership settle in, I expect he will realize that climate change is a threat to his people and to whole countries which share seas with the US, including my own,'' said Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine at the meeting.
However, Mr Trump's promise to rapidly get out of the Paris agreement and to push forward with a coal friendly policy have been welcomed by groups representing the fossil fuel industry.
According to the American Energy Alliance (AEA), which has attracted funding from companies and individuals opposed to green energy, the election presented the opportunity to reset the "harmful" policies of the last generation.
Trump's support for coal has resonated with his followers
"We were among the first organizations to endorse President-elect Trump," the AEA said in a statement.
"We're excited to work with his administration to put forth energy policies that will deliver affordable energy to American families, invigorate the economy, and create more opportunities for future generations."
For delegates in Marrakech, Mr Trump's promises to pull out of Paris and his general climate skepticism are an unwelcome distraction but not as yet a derailment.
Many believe that over time, the realities of a changing climate would bring even the wealthy businessman into line.
"It's clear Donald Trump is about to be one of the most powerful people in the world," said Alden Meyer, from the Union of Concerned Scientists.
"But even he does not have the power to amend and change the laws of physics, to stop the impacts of climate change, to stop the rising sea levels."
India is in the middle of an extraordinary economic experiment.
On 8 November, Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave only four hours' notice that virtually all the cash in the world's seventh-largest economy would be effectively worthless.
The Indian government likes to use the technical term "demonetization" to describe the move, which makes it sound rather dull. It isn't. This is the economic equivalent of "shock and awe".
India raises withdrawal limit as rupee anger mounts
India rupee ban: Currency move is 'bad economics'
Can India's currency ban really curb the black economy?
Do not believe reports that this is primarily about bribery or terror financing, the real target is tax evasion and the policy is very daring indeed.
You can see the effects outside every bank in the country. I am in Tamil Nadu in the south of India and here, as in every other state in the country, queues of people clutching wads of currency stretch halfway down the street.
Long queues of people wanting to exchange the old notes have formed across India
Mr Modi's "shock and awe" declaration meant that 1,000 and 500 rupee notes would no longer be valid.
These may be the largest denomination Indian notes but they are not high value by international standards - 1,000 rupees is only £12. But together the two notes represent 86% of the currency in circulation.
Think of that, at a stroke 86% of the cash in India now cannot be used.
What is more, India is overwhelmingly a cash economy, with 90% of all transactions taking place that way.
And that is the target of Mr Modi's dramatic move. Because so much business is done in cash, very few people pay tax on the money they earn.
According to figures published by the government earlier this year, in 2013 only 1% of the population paid any income tax at all.
As a result huge numbers of Indians have stashes of tax-free cash hidden away - known here as "black money".
Even the very poorest Indians have some cash savings - maybe just a few thousand rupees stored away for a daughter's wedding, the kids' school fees or - heaven forbid - an illness in the family.
India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave only four hours' notice of the move
But lots of Indians have much more than that.
It is not unusual for half the value of a property transaction to be paid in cash,with buyers turning up with suitcases full of 1,000 rupee notes.
The size of this shadow economy is reckoned to be as much as 20% of India's entire GDP.
Mr Modi's demonetization is designed to drive black money out of the shadows.
At the moment you can exchange up to 4,500 (£48) of the old rupees in cash for new 500 (£6) and 2,000 (£24) rupee notes.
There is no limit to the amount that can be deposited in bank accounts until the end of December, but the government has warned that the tax authorities will be investigating any deposits above 250,000 rupees (£2,962).
Breach that limit and you will be asked to prove that you have paid tax. If you cannot, you will be charged the full amount owed, plus a fine of 200% of the tax owed. For many people that could amount to be pretty much the full value of their hidden cash.
This is brave politics. Some of the hardest hit will be the small business people and traders who are Mr Modi's core constituency. They voted for him because they believed he was the best bet to grow the economy and improve their lot. They will not be happy if he destroys their savings.
Businesses will no longer take 500 and 1,000 rupee notes
Mr Modi says he is simply delivering on his pre-election promise to tackle corruption and tax evasion.
He says he warned that he would squeeze black money out of the system and had already offered amnesties to those who declared their black money holdings.
And, so far at least, the policy seems to be popular, in spite of the long queues and the fact that much day-to-day business in India has ground to a juddering halt.
Most Indians resent the fact that many of the richest among them have used black money to evade paying their fair share of tax and are happy to suffer a few weeks of what Mr Modi called "temporary hardships" to see them face justice.
They also recognize the benefits of drawing more people into the income tax net.
India has very low rates of tax compared to many other countries. The tax-to-GDP ratio - how much tax is raised as a proportion of the output of the economy - was 17% in 2013.
The average across the economies of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - a club of mostly rich nations - was over 34%.
Demonetization is part of a wider project to draw Indians into the formal economy and to get them to start paying the tax they owe.
There is no limit to the amount of old notes that people can deposit in bank accounts until the end of December
Curbing tax evasion is part of the agenda for the "aadhaar" scheme, a giant digital database designed to give hundreds of millions of Indians a unique ID, and of the new Goods and Services tax.
And reducing tax evasion can only be good for India. The more money it raises in tax, the more it has to spend on useful stuff like roads, hospitals and schools.
The more the country spends on public goods like that, the faster the Indian economy is likely to grow - or so the argument goes.
So the big question is: will it work?
Some economists have questioned the decision to introduce the 2,000 rupee note. They say if the policy is designed to force people into the banking system why issue a higher denomination note - presumably an even more convenient vehicle for black money transactions?
But the headlines about chaos and confusion are a bit misleading.
There have been virtually no reports of violence despite the huge disruption this policy has caused.
The new 500 and 2,000 rupee notes are in short supply and banks regularly run out of them
The queues are orderly and the worst you hear are the irritated mutterings of those whose days have been wasted standing in line.
But Mr Modi needs to be careful. The new notes are in short supply and there are not enough smaller denomination notes to go around, so the banks regularly run out of cash.
That cannot go on for long without irritation turning to anger.
But some queuing may be excusable, because in one regard the policy has already been a complete success: it came as a surprise to the entire country.
Think what that means. The government managed to plan this audacious policy, printing billions of new notes without anyone letting slip what was happening.
Reportedly, even senior members of the cabinet were not told what was being planned, for fear that if word got out the entire policy would be undermined. The hoarders would have time to empty their mattresses and launder their stashes into gold or other assets.
Keeping a secret of this magnitude in India, a country that thrives on rumor and gossip, is nothing short of a triumph and surely a reasonable justification for a few hiccups along the way.
The futures are up slightly this morning, which I guessed would be the more likely scenario. The falling trendline pointing to around 2170 today is strong resistance currently and is likely the best area to short at for a move down to the 2130 area over the coming day or two. While there is still support around 2150 I do think it will break soon. Whether that happens today, afterhours or tomorrow is unknown. We could drop down to that level today and rally back up to "maybe" 2160 or so by the close and then drop tomorrow? It's common to see these triangle patterns drag out for longer then we expect.
On the SPY that 2130 area would be around 214.00 or slightly lower. The whole area between 213.00 and 214.00 is good support and should stop the move down when it comes. For today I'd just be looking for a shorting opportunity with the ideal spot being a rally up to the falling trendline pointing to 2170 currently. I don't see any good longs at this level, only a short. However, once we get down into the 2130 zone I'd be looking for a long that will likely make another attempt at the magic 2200 level, but that's probably something that's still going to be tough to get and won't get close until next week.
The MACD's here on this 60 minute chart are kinda flatlined but on the 6 hour chart they are pointing down from a high around +15 and are around +8 to +10 right now. I don't think they will bottom out and turn back up until around the +5 to as low as zero area is hit.
This Monday morning we see the ES Futures about flat. Over the weekend they bust up through the falling green trendline of resistance and have since backtested it this morning. Looking at the MACD's we've now had a "lower high" and are not pointing back down again on this 60 minute chart. The 2 hour looks similar and the 6 hour is still hovering up in the +10 level and is clearly still very overbought. That tells me that even if the 60 minute chart and the 2 hour chart do turn back up on their MACD's the upside seems limited with the 6 hour chart still overbought. Since Mondays' tend to have light volume I could see those short term MACD's turn up and give the market a small rally today. But I think the market needs a little more time to reset other charts (like the 6 hour) as many are still too overbought. So while we might not breakdown below the 2150 horizontal support zone today we also won't likely have the strength to make a new all time high today either.
My thoughts are that we'll trend up a little in the morning session and drift back down later in the day, making it a choppy day likely staying below 2175 and above 2150. The SPX Cash is still pointing down on its' MACD's which suggests again that we'll need more time to reset the charts back to bullish again. It doesn't mean we'll drop to the 2130 zone yet either as "if" enough time goes by we could see a sideways range instead that reset the charts to bullish. While we "should" drop into that range to get the stronger bullish setup we all know too well that the bulls don't like to give up much ground. So let's not rule out the "triangle" pattern being used to reset overbought charts instead of a nice clean ABC wave move down to that 2130 zone. For today though I'd be focusing on that falling trendline around 2175 to hold the bulls back today as that's where they should stall out today. Other then day traders I currently don't see much to trade today. It just looks like a choppy today inside a triangle. Possibly a setup (either bullish or bearish) will show up going into the end of the day as charts realign themselves. Naturally if I see a setup going into Tuesday I'll post another update. But this morning I don't see much worth trading.
Donald Trump revealed his 13-member economic advisory team on Friday, along with an announcement that he will unveil his policy agenda “for revitalizing the American economy” at the Detroit Economic Club on Monday at noon.
“Mr. Trump’s speech will focus on empowering Americans by freeing up the necessary tools for everyone to gain economically,” the statement reads. “It will stand in stark contrast to Clinton’s same, stale big government policy prescriptions that have choked economic growth in America and led to over 40 years of wage stagnation.”
The all-male team draws heavily from Wall Street, featuring hedge fund executives like John Paulson, who made his fortune betting against the subprime market last decade, and Stephen Feinberg, co-founder of asset management firm Cerberus Capital Management.
Trump also draws heavily from the world of real estate, while also including figures like Dan DiMicco, Executive Chairman of the steel manufacturer Nucor Corporation, a move which emphasizes Trump’s campaign theme of revitalizing American manufacturing. Other members include:
Thomas Barrack, Founder and Executive Chairman of Colony Capital,
Andy Beal, Founder and Chairman of Beal Bank and Beal Bank USA
Stephen M. Calk, Founder, Chairman and CEO of Federal Savings Bank,
Dan Kowalski, Deputy Staff Director of the Republican staff of the Senate Budget Committee
Howard M. Lorber, President and CEO of Vector Group Ltd
David Malpass, former Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary under President Reagan, and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State under President George W. Bush.
Steven Mnuchin, Chairman and CEO of Dune Capital Management LP
Stephen Moore, economist and founder of Club for Growth
Peter Navarro, economist, Paul Merage School of Business at the University of California, Irvine
Steven Roth, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer of Vornado Realty Trust
Despite the fact that Donald Trump has been falling in the polls this week, most surveys still show voters trusting his handling of the economy more than Hillary Clinton’s. Monday’s policy announcement therefore may prove to be the real estate magnate’s first big chance to stem Clinton’s momentum and stage a comeback in the polls.
Yesterday near the close I suggested we'd drop down this morning as the 2 hour chart (and 3 and 4 hour charts) was too overbought and pointing down strongly on its' MACD's. This 60 minute chart shows its' MACD's now near zero where it's common to see a turn back up. This tells me that the 2150 zone of support will likely hold today (at least early) as the MACD's turn back up and provide a small bounce today. I'd look for the new falling trendline (in light green) to be resistance on any bounce. It's pointing to about 2160 into the close, but is around 2165 right now.
On the downside I suggested we could drop back into the 2125 zone but it's looking more like we'll hold the 2150 most of today as the MACD's on the 60 minute chart turn back up and get overbought again later today or afterhours where it should put in a lower higher somewhere in the +5 to +10 area.
So today could be choppy as the market tries to hold that 2150 zone of support but probably won't get over the falling green trendline at 2165 right now. We all know that a lot of the big moves happen afterhours so it wouldn't surprise me to see this move down go into Monday morning.
It's been 36 hours (or so) since we were all witnesses to the biggest political upset in presidential history. As President-elect Donald Trump and President Obama huddle in Washington on Thursday, and as the gears of the incoming government begin to grind in earnest, I'm still totally captivated by the “how” of this election. How did this happen and what can we learn about ourselves and the country as a result?
The best way to do that — still — is the exit poll, the national survey of voters that gives us a portrait of who we are and what we believe. As you might expect in an election this historic, there are lots and lots of remarkable — and remarkably contradictory — findings in the exits. My take-aways — offered only in the order I came up with them — are below. (A caveat: When you talk about slicing and dicing exit polls, you are, at times, dealing with very small numbers of actual people on which broad conclusions are based. Consider that as you go through these numbers.)
1. Trump won the white vote by a record margin
In 1984, Ronald Reagan won the white vote by 20 points on his way to a 525 electoral vote smashing of Walter Mondale. Mitt Romney matched that 20-point victory in 2012 while losing relatively convincingly to President Obama. On Tuesday, Trump one-upped them both — literally. He won the white vote 58 percent to 37 percent.
The white vote also continued its decline as a percentage of the overall voter pool. In 1984, whites made up 86 percent of the total electorate. That number was 72 percent in 2012. And 70 percent in 2016.
2. There was no surge of female voters
For all of the talk that Trump's comments about women — and the allegations of sexual assault made against him by a dozen women — would mean historic turnout among female voters (and a historic margin of defeat for Trump), it simply never materialized.
Women made up 52 percent of the overall electorate in 2016 — down from 53 percent in 2012. And Hillary Clinton's 12-point margin over Trump among women was pretty darn close to the 11-point win among women that Obama claimed over Romney four years ago.
3. There was no surge of Latino voters
Trump built his campaign on a pledge to build a wall on our Southern border and make Mexico pay for it. He suggested during the campaign that a judge of Mexican descent might not be able to rule fairly in a case involving Trump University. He said that Mexico was sending “criminals” and “rapists” to the United States.
All of that led to predictions of historically high Hispanic turnout, with many predicting that 2016 would be the election that Latinos emerge as the electoral force that their population numbers suggest they should be.
It just didn't happen.
In 2012, Hispanics made up 10 percent of the overall electorate. That bumped up, marginally, to 11 percent in 2016. And, far more interestingly, Trump actually performed better among Hispanics than Romney did — 29 percent to 27 percent. More tellingly, Clinton underperformed Obama's 2012 showing among Hispanics by six points (71 percent for Obama, 65 percent for Clinton), an under-performance that allowed Trump's slight over-performance among white voters to matter more.
4. Education level mattered hugely in your vote choice
In 2012, Obama won both voters who had graduated from college and those who hadn't; he took 50 percent among the former group and 51 percent among the latter. This time around, there was a far bigger divide. Clinton won voters with a college degree 52 percent to 43 percent. Trump won voters without a college degree by eight points.
Also, contrary to some of the conventional wisdom out there about the 2016 voter, this was a more highly educated electorate than in 2012. It split evenly — 50 percent for each — between college grads and non-college grads. Four years ago, 53 percent of the electorate was non-college grads as compared to 47 percent who had a college degree.
5. Trump did better with white evangelicals than Romney
Trump didn't do much to court white evangelical voters. And his personal story — three marriages, two divorces — doesn't seem like one that many evangelicals could or would identify with. But Trump actually did better among white evangelicals than Romney had in 2012; Trump won 81 percent of “white evangelical or white born-again Christians” while Romney took 78 percent. (White evangelicals made up 26 percent of the electorate in both elections.)
How to explain it? One theory is that as a Mormon, Romney was always viewed skeptically by evangelical whites. Another is that with social issues on the wane as voting issues, white evangelicals acted more tribally; they're an overwhelmingly Republican bloc and voted like it. Or maybe Trump's antiabortion stance — and Clinton's support of abortion rights — was enough.
6. Trump didn't brings lots of new voters to the process
Just 10 percent of voters said that the 2016 election was their first time voting. Of that group, Clinton won 56 percent to 40 percent over Trump. Of course, new voters often overlap with younger voters who are eligible to vote for the first time; Clinton won among 18- to 24-year-olds by 21 points.
7. The economy was the big issue — and Clinton won it
A majority (52 percent) of voters said the economy was the most important issue facing the country. (Voters were given a choice of four issues; “terrorism” was the second most commonly named “important” issue, with 18 percent choosing it.) Among those economy voters, Clinton beat Trump by 10 points.
Scratching your head yet? More below — but this is one of several findings in the exit poll that suggest people weren't voting on issues. Like, at all.
8. This was a change election. And Trump was the change candidate.
To me, this is the single most important number in the exit poll in understanding what voters were thinking when they chose Trump. Provided with four candidate qualities and asked which mattered most to their vote, almost 4 in 10 (39 percent) said a candidate who “can bring needed change." (A candidate who “has the right experience” was the second most important character trait.) Among those change voters, Trump took 83 percent of the vote to just 14 percent for Clinton.
The desire for change appears to be at the root of the choice lots and lots of voters made. And Trump was change while Clinton was more of the same.
9. Obamacare was a wind beneath Trump's wings
The late October announcement that the average premium for people in the federal insurance exchange of the Affordable Care Act would rise by an average of 25 percent landed like a lead balloon on a not-insignificant portion of the electorate.
Almost half of the electorate (47 percent) said they thought Obamacare “went too far.” Trump beat Clinton 83 percent to 13 percent among that group.
10. Trump's personal image was and is horrible
Trump's victory should be in no way interpreted as a vote of confidence in him or his capacity to do the job. Less than 4 in 10 voters (38 percent) had a favorable opinion of him. Only 1 in 3 said he was “honest and trustworthy.” Thirty-eight percent said he was “qualified” to be president. Thirty-five percent said he has the “temperament to serve effectively as president.”
How can a candidate win with numbers like these? Because the desire for change was so great that it overrode all of the doubts — or at least many of the doubts — people had about Trump.
11. Clinton's email hurt her
Democrats spent the entire election — and the two days since the election! — insisting that Clinton's decision to exclusively use a private email server as secretary of state was a non-issue. Turns out they were wrong. Almost two-thirds of Americans (63 percent) said that Clinton's “use of private email” bothered them “a lot” or “some.” Among that group, Trump won 70 percent to 24 percent.
12. This was a deeply pessimistic electorate
Just 1 in 3 voters said they thought the country was “generally going in the right direction.” Clinton won 90 percent of that group. But, among the two-thirds of people who said things were “seriously off on the wrong track,” Trump took 69 percent.
Again, “change versus more of the same” as the dominant theme of the election. And evidence that Trump's willingness to say, “Yeah, things suck now ... but I will fix them” was a genius strategic decision.
13. People didn't think Trump lost the debates as badly as I did
I named Clinton the winner in each of three presidential debates — and I didn't think any of the three were particularly close. Lots of people who voted Tuesday did not agree with me. Among the 64 percent who said the debates were an “important” part of their vote for president, Clinton won by a narrow 50 percent to 47 percent margin over Trump. Of the 82 percent of people who said the debates were a “factor” in their decision for president, Trump took 50 percent to 47 percent for Clinton.
Good Morning All. No doubt we are very, very overbought now on the short term charts of the ES Futures as all of them from the 6 hour chart on down are at extreme highs with their MACD's now. The SPX Cash is almost as overbought too it seems, with only the 4 and 6 hour charts showing move room to go up. Basically is tells me that neither futures nor cash indexes will get through their prior all time highs on the first hit of them. A pullback of some degree (in time more the price) is almost a certainty.
So, we have the futures with a 2184 prior high and the cash with a 2193 high, and we hit 2180 this morning on the futures and have since then pulled back. It tells me that they will attempt another run back up today during the normal market hours so the cash index can get its' chance at 2193... which should also fall short. Based on how much time it takes to turn these MACD's back up on the futures (and to keep them up on the cash) my thoughts are that will see that final thrust higher late in the day near the close.
Therefore we could and should see some pullback early in the day but it should NOT break the prior 2150 area where it broke-through horizontal resistance yesterday. The DOW came within a hair of its' prior all time high of 18,688.44 yesterday with a 18,650.06 high. But on the futures of the DOW the prior high was 18,615 and that was taken out this morning with a 18,714 high. This is a clue that a new all time high on the SPX Cash and/or ES Futures "could" also happen but one should NOT assume that the market will just keep on going up without a pullback as double tops have high odds of stopping rallies on the first attempt.
My thoughts are simple. Give the charts enough time to get extremely overbought on the MACD's of all the shorter term periods (mainly the 4 and 6 hour charts) for the SPX Cash Index today, which should be by today's close, or possibly extended into Friday morning. Then we won't care so much about whether they make a slightly lower high or higher high like the DOW. We'll just be looking to short going into Friday morning if the alignment of the MACD's and the push back up into the close today setups as I think they will. If we pullback today of course and don't do that final push back up into the close then I'd look for it to happen Friday morning, where I'd then take a short. Either way it's just a matter of giving the charts enough TIME to setup and not worrying about what the price level will be when the setup appears.
