The futures are up close to the recent all time high but haven't went through it yet. Are the bears teasing the bulls for once by allowing them to get so close? Or are the bulls teasing the bears by holding back from busting higher? Unfortunately I don't know the answer. But the current high isn't that important to me right now but instead I'm just waiting to see what happens next week with earnings and the FOMC meeting. There certainly could be another spike higher to punish any early bears going short this week, but of course I'm hoping the current all time high holds as it's a nice ritual number to mark it with.

But for now I'm standing pat and waiting until next week as it should be the "key week" where the decision is made to tank it hard or squeeze it again. Not much else to say today as it's the last day of the week and I really don't expect too much action as traders are very likely waiting the FOMC to see what the Fed's say going forward. So have a great weekend and remember that God is real, make him your savior as if you don't the devil will be happy to take you. 🙂

The SPX put in a nice ritual high yesterday of 3337.77, which reminds me of the 777 train in the movie called "Unstoppable" (2010) with Denzel Washington and Chris Pine (before he became the young Captain Kirk on Star Trek). There's also the famous speech from Christine Lagarde where she talks about numerology and the number 7. Of course none of this means anything if the SPX makes another new all time in the coming days, but for now it might hold. I'm thinking we are going to pullback small, like maybe to just under 3300 a little to make an A wave down of some degree. Then sideways to back up some into late next week for the B wave up.

Why you ask? Because of earnings coming out, which I think will hold the market in place until it's over with. Next Tuesday we have Apple reporting earnings, and Telsa and Facebook on Wednesday, along with the FOMC meeting at 2pm EST that day, and then Amazon on Thursday. So while we might have put in a top yesterday I don't think the expected big drop (the C wave) will start until after those earnings (and Fed meeting) has pasted.

Remember that the insiders will want to unload their garbage stocks at the high to YOU the sheep, so expect good numbers on their reports to pop them higher where they dump into the bigger volume. Now the big question will be... if viewed good will they be enough to create another new all time high in the SPX/DOW? The answer is... I don't know?

I'd love for the high to hold simply for its ritual value. But if it doesn't then a blow off top rally to maybe close to, or piercing through the 3400 is certainly in the cards. I don't think it will matter either way but I'd prefer a lower high to keep a nice ABC pattern in proper formation (and the ritual number high intact too). Of course we could just start dropping tomorrow and continue to accelerate lower and lower, but that just doesn't make sense from an "insider point of view".

You have to think like a criminal here, and if you owned those big stocks mentioned, and you've been long them since say... October of last year, wouldn't you want to use the fake earnings reports (which create volume... buying or selling) to unload them? Pump the crap out of them to the fake news media outlets and sell during earnings... that's what I'd do if I were a criminal bankster like Lloyd Blankfein or Jamie Dimon (and all the others that hid in the dark).

Anyway, ritual number or not, this possible scenario is what I'd do if I were them. I pray that I'm able to catch it, up or down. May God help all us sheep to take back some money from the wolves that stole it from first.

P.S. Apple had a nice ritual high of 319.99 today and Facebook at 222.75... so "clues" are out there for all to see.

Don't think the market is rigged?  Watch this...

Looks like yesterday didn't happen when see the futures back up this morning. More grind as the market plans its next big move. Will it be up to squeeze the bears even more, or down to trap the bulls? I hate to say it but as long as the bears keep calling for tops it's going to be hard to get one. Everyone seems to be comparing this current rally up to the January 2018 rally and they expect a repeat. It never happens like that when all the sheep see the same pattern. Will it drop hard and spank the bulls? Sure... eventually.

But it might need higher prices first before that happens, as bears need to stop shorting and throw in the towel on a big drop soon. We that happens and we hear talk of much higher numbers and failed comparisons to 2018 then we can start looking for a top. I just don't see it right now. More time is needed, like maybe until the end of this month or early February... don't know? For now though I remain neutral as I can't be a bear here with so many other bears... nor can I be a bull up at these heights. Maybe we are 99% done with the move up, or maybe only 98%... or 95%?

Doesn't matter as you don't want to short until it's a 100% done and you get a clean sell signal. Right now we don't have that, but we don't have any buy signals either. That was long ago and we are still in it I guess? At least until we top. The grind higher is very frustrating for sure but you can't fight the Fed and they are still pumping billions of dollars into this fat pig. It might be be causing some super strong rally but it's certainly stopping any big drop from happening... for now at least. Anyway, nothing on the horizon for today or the next few days as far as sell signals go. The market closed red yesterday to reset the multi-day in a row series of green closes. For now, I'm just waiting on something... what I don't know? May God give us all more patience.

After a nice long weekend, which I used to make improvements to the website, we are back to the grind stone once again. Looks like the futures are down a little this morning, but nothing big. This week is a critical one to "possibly" setup a sell signal that could be big enough to drop the market hard into mid-February... which is the time period the bears will have the best chance at I believe.

Most corrections (not just a couple of days pulling back) last about 18-21 days from what I've counted in the past. So, in order to bottom around the middle of February (the 2nd Friday commonly puts in the low as the 3rd Friday is the monthly expiration week and usually will rally to make put holders expire worthless) we'd need to start the move down by early next week or very late this week.

It doesn't have to play out like this, but it's the bears best time period to do so, with the highest statistical odds rooting for them. There also some political things on the scene and something about the REPO and the 15th of February.

All signs of concern for the market going into the middle of next month. For today I'd like to see a green close across the board on the indexes but a small one to show the bulls are tired. Do that for several days in a row to make a bull flag pattern and put the bears to sleep and you'll have the makings of a top forming. Yeah, there's danger that the bull flag could play out, but also good odds it will fail and just rollover hard... which is what I'm thinking will happen.

Just wishing for now but all could come true by the end of this week or early next week. I don't have much to say about today other then I'd like for it to chop around all day and "squeak" out a small green close. It's kinda like the game blackjack, where you know the odds increase over time as the chip continues to land on the same color, whether its red or black isn't the point.

But say if it does it 5 times, 6 times, 7 times, or more.... on say "black" (for green in the market), the odds increase that the next time will fall on "red" to break the streak. We've had a lot of green closes in the past month or so on the DOW and SPX as the market just grinds up everyday without mercy. Give me several more, but make them weak and odds will shift in favor of a nice drop happening in February. Have a wonderful and blessed day.

The grind continues this Friday morning. The bulls just don't seem to ever want to rest. But a holiday is near (next Monday the markets are closed for MLK day), and "turns" in the market are common around them. So I would not be surprised if we top out today or next Tuesday and then start down some. In the beginning pullbacks should be small as "buy the dippers" keep jumping in, but that just sets up a nice series of wave 1's (or A) down and wave 2's (or B) up.

And we all know that while Elliottwave can't really predict the market in the future very accurately alone, it does aid when combined with other methods. If it plays out like I think it might then a larger drop should start by the end of next week or early the week afterwards. It should last into mid-February and should scare the crap out of the bulls. With all the past months of grind upward to squeeze the last bear out this coming correction should make all those bulls puke. It's getting really close now to bull slaughtering time. Another week I think, but a blow off top needs to be put in first. Today or next Tuesday seems like the most likely days to do it. Have a wonderful holiday weekend and remember that Jesus loves even us stock market junkies. 🙂

P.S.  For you that remember Reinhardt's blog there's a Legatus meeting next week as well.  I smell a big drop coming soon.

2020 Legatus Summit East

Well, I hate to repeat myself so many times, but the market is up again this morning... not huge, but up never the less. The 3300 level on the SPX will be taken out on the SPX at open it appears as the ES Futures are already above it. Next week still has the highest odds for a top and big drop to happen. The market is closed on Monday for Martin Luther King day, so it will be a shortened week.

How many times in the past has the market made important turns around a holiday? A lot is the simple answer. Until then there's not much to do as today (and probably tomorrow as well) appears to be another slow grind higher, and without fast swings up and down it's hard for option players to trade this. It could be done if you already entered yourself in net long position some time ago, but that's not the case for me (unfortunately).

I'm still on the sidelines waiting for the south bounded train to arrival, and next week is the expected schedule date, with Tuesday being the most likely one. Hopefully it shows up safely and on time as the northbound train is close to running out of track I hear... LOL. Have a wonderful day and don't let stress affect your life. God put us here to love and nothing else matters. 🙂

A small move down this morning, but nothing big. It's still looking like next week will be the key for the bears. Today, tomorrow and Friday really needs to carve out some small waves down and up (in Elliottwave) to setup a C wave down next week. If we pullback into this Friday (again... small, like maybe down to 3250's?) then I'd look for next Tuesday (market closed on Monday for MLK day) to be up. Basically some kind of A wave down into Friday and B up on Tuesday, then hopefully the bears will get a nice C wave drop afterwards.

The other scenario would be a move down today and tomorrow for the A wave and back up on Friday for the B wave, which should put in a double top to fool the bears over the weekend so they don't short it. Then the C down could start on Tuesday. I give that one the lower odds. I suspect we'll pullback into this Friday over uncertainty in the political scene. That's about all I have for now. It's just a waiting game right now. May God bless you and keep you away from SkyNet's tricks.

The futures are flat this morning, so it's hard to get a good read on the market. I'd really like to see some quick moves up and down (that are small) to give us some kind of hint that a top is forming. There's still the magical even number level of 3000 on the SPX that the bulls want to hit, so even though they hit the 29,000 level on the DOW they might want the SPX one too? They are really close now and going sideways for several days would form a nice bull flag for them to breakthrough it later in the week.

Of course that could also be a trick to scare away the bears seeing the same pattern and lure in the bulls right before it fails to break high and instead rolls over and drops hard. Again, nothing here suggesting a hard drop today, but that could change in the coming days. With all the earnings coming out these next few weeks I have to think the bulls will succeed and bust on through to 3300+ before they allow a correction to start.

The January VIX contract basically expires today at the close because you can't trade it overnight and in the premarket tomorrow when it officially expires at 8am EST Wednesday morning. Once the February contract starts the VIX is open for a spike high at anytime over the next couple of weeks. It doesn't have to start tomorrow, as they might wait until after the monthly options expire on the indexes this Friday, meaning next week is really the week to look out for a surprise drop to start. Nothing else to add here so have a blessed day and trade safely (if there is such a thing... LOL).

The futures are up this morning, which doesn't surprise me. I wasn't expect much to happen until at least after the January VIX contract expires this coming Wednesday morning and possibly the Index monthly options on Friday. I don't know if another new all time high will be made or not, or if the SPX reaches the all magical 3300 level, but that's not as important really as the "time cycle" is... which again points to later this week or early next week as the most likely period for a pullback in the market to start.

I don't see anything big starting today or tomorrow as the current VIX contract must first expire so the February one can start. Then at some point in the next week or so the market makers will let the SPX/DOW drop to spike the VIX up again so they can repeat the process of selling naked calls on it.

It doesn't happen every month as some are more bullish then others. But I'd say it happen two thirds to three quarters of the time for each 12 months of every year. The months that are more common for weakness are of course the higher odds ones. That would be February of course, sometimes March.

May has seen some nice drops in the market too, but April, June and July seem up more years then down. August and September has seen nasty drops as well as October. Normally November and December are quiet months but not in 2018. There's no way to be 100% sure on which months we'll see late pullbacks but it's safe to say that when the market is overbought and in a month where it's common to happen you have to be on the lookout for such a drop.

Remember that the market makers need volatility to make money, and markets that go straight up do not help them (just folks with 401k plans basically). So again, I do expect much action early this week but a sell signal could start setting up late in the week. I'd like to see some decent swings up and down (basically to make an A wave down and B up of some degree) to get the signal started. Hopefully I'll be able to see it before it happens. Have a blessed day.

The futures are up a little this morning, which is expected with the DOW so close to 29,000 that you know they will want to hit it. I doubt if much esle happens today. It's probably going to be a boring one. Monday though could pullback some, but I don't see anything big on the downside starting until after next Wednesday as the earliest. They (the market makers) will keep the market from dropping hard until after the monthly expiration, and that's Wednesday morning for the VIX and Friday for the SPX.

I do think a big drop is coming, which might look similar to the late January to early February 2018 move down. But, I think it will just be a large 4 wave down of some degree and then we start a strong rally back up into the spring/summer for another new all time. We are clearly in a blow off top mode with the Feds pumping as much money as needed to keep this pig going up. So I'll be on the lookout for DOW 30,000 or more as this thing isn't going to die anytime soon. Have a great weekend.

Nothing exciting about the market this morning as it up again as usually. That ABC down we had over the last week or so still looks like a wave 4 of some smaller degree. Odds are we are in the wave 5 up now, and it's looking like it wants to hit 3300 at least. It's just a waiting game right now. I still think "they" will hold the market up into the monthly options expiration of the VIX next week (Tuesday is the last trading day), and maybe even the Index expiration on Friday? Bottom line is that I expect a high at some point next week to end this smaller wave 5 up, and probably end some larger degree wave 3 up?

Some think we are in a larger degree wave 5 up and when it ends a major correction will start, but I suspect it's just a larger 3 wave and the correction down won't be huge (like 300-400 SPX points), but will still be a very nice drop. I'm thinking in the 150 point range, and I think it will be just a larger wave 4 down with a larger 5 up to follow right afterwards. Another huge rally up into spring/summer will just destroy the bears, especially if it blasts through 3300 and maybe hits 3400? Don't know how high it will go but it should be high enough to get everyone bullish. This is all just speculation right now.

My main focus is just to catch the coming drop, regardless of what wave count it turns out to be. I'm still on the sidelines and will remain so until next Tuesday to let the VIX expire. And I want to see that 3300 hit as well. When that happens I'll start looking for a short. Have a blessed day. God loves all us sinners. Thank him for that...

Well the bulls did indeed rally the market back up yesterday and came close to hitting the FP on the SPY from last Friday. This morning the market is about flat though with no clear direction. As far as wave counts it's really hard to say for sure? We do look like we completed an ABC down of some degree, but was that all for the wave 4 or will it subdivide into a series of ABC moves? I just don't know. If it subdivides then the ABC down we just finished was part of a bigger A down. Then a bigger B up should be in play now and last into options expiration most likely.

Then the bigger C down happens, and that completes the wave 4 down leaving 5 up into April/May for a huge blow off top. If not, then the 4 down right now completed and the 5 up in play should take us into the mid-3300 range in the coming few weeks. Both counts suggest there's not much downside for the next couple of weeks, with one pointing to a strong rally and the other just chop with a slightly higher high. Without knowing which one is correct I don't have any high odds trade I'll willing to play. That's all I have for today. Good luck as always.

Looks like we are doing the retest of the low from last week. I spoke about it being a possible ABC down for a wave 4 down of some degree and I still think that's the likely case. But, it might subdivide into a series of ABC downs, so when this C down ends it might only be the first A down. Then choppy B up into the monthly options expiration week should be next.

In elliottwave, which again I don't think can be very accurate in forecasting the market all by itself, B waves can go higher then the top of the A down. Meaning that we might see a slightly higher high to lure in the bulls and fake out the bears on the B up, which again I suspect will end the week of the monthly options expiration.

It's just a common practice for the market makers to spike the VIX up early in the start of its monthly contract, sell naked calls on it, and then drive it back down into expiration to make those calls expire worthless. The January contract for the VIX expires at 8am EST on the 15th, while the index options expire on Friday the 17th. So around that area is where I'd top out the market before a nice big drop down (for the C wave).

Between now and then it's looking like some choppy moves to frustrate both sides. This current move down looks very controlled so I'm not so sure on it breaking 3200 and reaching 3150 or so like I previously said. There's a "possible" FP on the SPY from last Friday of 324.81 at 4:12 pm, which of course could just be a late fill as it's very close to the close on Thursday.

Real or fake it's funny how the market makes its way back there at some future date, time after time. So don't get married to the downside here as I don't think we are quite really yet for that big drop to start. Have a bless day and may God watch out for all of us.

Well, yesterday did indeed have an early morning pullback after failing to get through the last Friday high and only making a double top, but what wave count it was is unknown? It didn't take out the low of the Mon/Tues drop so it wasn't the C wave down still inside a wave 4 down, so that wave count is wrong. It appeared more like the wave 5 up was subdividing and the early pull back yesterday was a small wave 2 down with the opening double top hit the small wave 1 up. That count looked great later in the day as the strong rally up started and continued into the close where it make a new all time high.

Yippee! It's a small wave 3 up inside a 5 up the bulls are thinking. So they probably (not me, I sat in cash) held over night looking for it to continue today as it still should have had a small wave 4 down and 5 up left before the bigger 5 up ended... right? Wrong! Bull trap... ha ha ha! Finally it's they get some of their own medicine as the futures tanked afterhours with over a 40 point down move.

They took out the Mon/Tue low where a small A down inside a wave 4 down could have ended. It would suggest that this drop was the small C down of that 4 down as it made a lower low then the A did. But the small B up went to a new all time high of 3263, which is much higher then the start of the A down at 3254 (ES Futures), so how can that be a B wave? I know, you Elliottwave guys are going to say that the B up can be higher then the top and starting point of the A down.

Well great... so how does that help one pick a spot to short at? Most bears shorted at the early double top, but got squeezed out on the rally up into the close. Then the bulls get taken out last night as all their stops were likely hit. Now the futures are bouncing up some from the early morning low. I guess SkyNet ran all the stops on the bulls and now back to the usually bullish mode? Who knows? I can just say that very few likely caught this move, which is why I don't do much forecasting with Elloittwave.

Even technical analysis only work part of the time. I prefer to just say I don't know when nothing looks clear or has high odds... which was the case yesterday. For today it still looks nasty for the open, and while a quick bounce is likely shortly there afterwards the odds suggest there will be a retest of the over night low by the close today, or Monday morning. But odds get weaker as more time passes.

Call this an ABC wave 4 down if you want, which suggest that next week we'll start a wave 5 up. When it ends is anyone's guess? I'd say they woke up the bears now so my thinking is that those bears will be used as fuel to squeeze to get the market higher again as no one else is buying at these levels. How high will this squeeze up next week go, and is it the final wave 5 before large correction? I think it is, and for the upside target my guess would be we'll either fall short of the magical even number level of 3300 by 10-20 points or pierce though it by the same. I don't think we'll stop right at it because it's too obvious.

Time is a factor here as well as the Marker Makers will either do this fast to get it over with or drag it out into the 3rd Wednesday of January to let the monthly VIX contract expire first, then tank it late in January. That was what happened in 2018, so that's not likely to be repeated exactly as they rarely let us sheep figure it out. If I was them I'd call it a top yesterday for large wave 3 up from many months ago in 2019, and start the wave 4 down now. I'm sure you can count the waves in a manor to where you can label it like that.

Then I'd drop some next week for the A wave down of that wave 4, which they (the Market Makers) should make a much larger wave down in total to really get enough bears onboard to squeeze much higher into spring/summer. I mean crazy levels like even 3500 or more? What would it take to get that started? I'd say a nice 200+ SPX/ES point drop or so... like down to just above the 3000 level. That would wake up the bears. So, if I was a MM I'd drop some next week to get started, like just the A part of the 4 down.

Maybe I'd go through 3200 a little to wake up the bears nicely. Then I'd end it and start the B up and squeeze those bears. Make them give up and starting thinking the wave 5 up has started. All that is needed is a rally back up so strong for that B wave that it gets really close again to the all time high made yesterday. Don't make a double top as then some bears will jump in short just on that common practice of shorting all double tops. Make it close but fall shy enough to stop bears from short it.

This should be down into the 3rd week of January for the monthly options expiration for the VIX and the SPX/SPY. If done right the bears will give and the bulls will be fully loaded thinking the wave 5 up is about to take them to another new all time high... and beyond. But that's where the MM's should pull the wool over the bulls eyes and drop it again for the C wave down of the wave 4, which should get close to 3000 if it's a true C down... and that will wake up enough bears to squeeze for several months and blast up to crazy levels for that wave 5 up. All just speculation of course, but it's what I'd do if I were a market maker. Have a great weekend. May God bless us all in 2020.

The market is ripping higher this morning to start off 2020 with a bang... at least for the bulls. It's not quite taken out the prior high a week ago on the ES Futures but it's very close to doing so. I don't have any clue where the market is going this week but I can tell what others think. The Elliottwave folks see the move down on Monday/Tuesday as a wave 4 of some degree, which puts us in a wave 5 up currently. If it fails to bust through and make another higher high then we could still be in the wave 4 down and that it divided into an ABC pattern instead of just that one wave down on Monday.

Basically that move down would just be the A leg of the wave 4 and we are in the B leg up of it. That leaves C down to complete wave 4 still to come, like maybe tomorrow or even on Monday? The alternative count would be that wave 4 did complete as just a one wave move down and that we are in a 5 up now, which would be a failed 5th wave or "truncated" one if it fails to take out the current all time high and continue higher.

Another possible count would be that this rally up is just wave 1 inside that 5th wave and that a tiny wave 2 down should happen next, like on Friday. But that 2 down should make a higher low then the low of the Mon/Tues wave 4 down. Then a wave 3 up of that 5th wave would start on Monday I guess. All three scenario's suggest a move down is likely next on a failure to get through to a new high.

They only vary based on which count we are in? Not much help really, which is why I don't use EW as a prediction tool as it has too many alternative wave counts. But it can still be helpful when combined with other tools. Like technical analysis, which right now isn't very clear as far as I can tell.

Some time frames are bullish and others bearish. Just not much help there at all. The bullish side shows the market riding up nicely above the moving averages with no signs of rolling over yet. The MACD's (daily chart) show a "possible" bearish cross but it's not here yet. The Histogram bars are lower then previously but not below the zero line yet... so neutral to bullish.

The Full Stochastic has rolled over from being up in the 70's and now is below the 50 level and pointing down. But it could hook back up at the open with the futures being up nicely and the chart I'm looking at is the cash only. Bottom line here is that I don't see any clear direction, but all EW counts suggest this rally up will pullback some in the next day or two. Welcome to 2020.

Nice surprise drop yesterday that I wasn't expecting.  However, I doubt if it repeat again. Today looks to be a mostly flat day with a possible early retest of the low from yesterday and then up a little the rest of the day. But I'm not expecting much. It New Years Eve so I suspect most traders will be not be around today. In fact I'm going to do the same and just end this update here. Have a Happy New Year and may God Bless you in 2020 and beyond.

Nothing much to say for today or tomorrow as it's looking likely that both days will just chop around with light volume and go basically nowhere. Nothing big on the upside or downside seems like the plan here to end the year. Next year though should be a wild one as I fully expect some big swings up and down prior to the 2020 presidential election. It should start with a top in January that causes a nice drop into a February low.

From there a nice rally up into the spring before another drop into the summer for another low. I could be wrong but I suspect the summer drop will be early, like in May/June instead of the usual July/August top and drop into a September low. I say this based on the election being in November as I think they will get the move down out of the way as soon as possible to make sure the market is going up into the elections. All just a guess at this point but that's what I'd do if I could as then it would give Trump the highest odds of getting re-elected. Anyway, nothing else here to add so I'll end it here and wish you all a blessed day.

I hope everyone had a great Christmas. This morning we see the futures up a little but nothing huge. I'm still expecting a pullback to start today or tomorrow, which I know is the contrarian view with light volume expected due to the holidays. Regardless, I simply post what I see and think... right or wrong. I'll keep this update short and end it here. Have a great day.