I'll keep this update short as this is a holiday week, but don't fall asleep as I'm expecting a pullback to start right after Christmas. A typical trick by SkyNet is to drop it around holidays when the bears aren't watching, and I think it's going to happen this time around as well. There's a FP on the SPY from after the close on Friday. It's showing a high of 322.35, which from the looks of this mornings rally it could be hit today or tomorrow. The typical trick is to put out some upside or downside FP and go the opposite direction first and come back later to hit the FP, that's not looking like the plan for this one. The QQQ also has a FP on it of 212.50, which again might get hit today or tomorrow.

Speaking of tomorrow, don't forget that the market will close early at 1pm EST as it's Christmas Eve. Ok, not much to add for today but I'll be watching closely for that FP to get hit. Today or tomorrow does look to be the likely time period but don't get lured into thinking it has too hit in the next day or so as again, most of the time the market starts off the opposite direction of the FP and comes back to it later.

It's the trick SkyNet loves to tease us with as it knows how obvious the FP is... especially for those looking for them. My plan is to wait until tomorrow at the close to look for a short. I might even wait for Thursday, not sure? I'd like to see the FP put in the high of course but we all know that they are just targets to be hit and not always "turning points".

We saw that recently with the hit of the FP on IWM, which was 164.34 and the day it hit (and pierced through) the final high that day was 165.10, and it did pullback small that day but went back up the next day to retest that high by putting in a slightly lower one, and then pulled back a second time. But that was about all as after that it went sideways to up into the current higher high of 166.41 last Friday. Did the FP work? Sure, as if you were long you knew when to get out and go to cash. But it didn't produce an immediate turn back down, so for the bears wanting to short it they weren't happy.

This current new FP on the SPY could get hit and pieced (that's common) and the market linger up here for a few days. So don't base a decision to short solely on the hit of the FP. In fact I'm basing my choice to look for a short soon based on many other factors that I won't go into this morning. Have a great Monday and may God Bless you and your family.

A nice move up yesterday to put another new all time high. We are getting close now to top zone on the DOW that Oscar Carboni had as a year end target, which was 28,500-29,000. The SPY paid dividends today and it's dropped about a buck to reflect that payout, but the rest of the market is flat for the most part. I really don't have much of an opinion right now as the market still seems to be sleeping with no clear direction. It's a grind higher slowly until those upside targets are reached I guess.

It might continue into the end of the year, just not sure? But we all know a surprise move down is right around the corner... catching it in advance is always the tough part though. Today is a Friday and I don't see high odds for the bulls or bears today, but of course would lean more with the bulls due to the extremely light volume and holiday time of the year. Nothing else to add so I'll end it here. Get yourself some coffee to stay warm and to stay awake as it's probably going to be another boring day. Have a great weekend and may God bless you during this holiday season.

Yesterday the company I used for hosting the free chatroom went down and stayed down all day long... including their website. They are Flyzoo.co and that forced for look for another alternate, which I quickly found a company called Minnit.chat and installed it. But it has very limited features, which I guess is why it's free. I keep researching and looking for one comparable in features to my original one.

I finally found one called Wise Chat Pro, which I got installed and working now. It will be replacing the others as it better then Minnit.chat and comparable in features as Flyzoo.co... plus it's free for me as it will run on my hosting companies servers versus paying $9.90 per month for Flyzoo.co to host the chatroom on their servers. Everyone start playing around with it as it's the new chatroom.

Ok, for the market we still see a mostly flat open with the futures down just a few points. I can only guess the market is in wait mode until this impeachment crap is over with... at least in congress, as it will never get passed in the senate. I am looking for a drop to start soon but that doesn't mean the bulls won't try to spike it up higher one more time first to squeeze out any bears shorting right now.

There was a large block of VIX calls bought Tuesday and Wednesday for the January 20th, 2020 expiration, at the 22 strike price. Someone said in the room it was the famous "50 cent" trader that seems to appear and go short big time before a large drop happens. I guess we'll know soon as January isn't that far away. For today I don't have a clue. More chop I guess? Bore traders to sleep (at least the bears)? I'm rooting for one more pop higher as this sideways crap is a bull flag pattern and I'd like to see it play out before risky a short on it.

The DOW is really close to Oscar Carboni's target zone of 28,500-29,000, and the SPX needs to get up into the 3200's I think. Let's all give the bull a nice kick the butt to get it moving so us bears can feast. There's a short near, I can smell it. Just got to be more patient. Dear Lord Jesus, please help me to catch the top and short this fat pig. Please give me patience, wisdom, courage, strength and knowledge to dodge satan during this time of year. And let's all start celebrating your birthday the rest of December. Thank you Jesus. Yours always, Red. 🙂

It's starting off as another flat day it seems but that could all change of course by the open. I don't have much to add today that hasn't already been covered. We are up at strong overhead resistance areas on the SPX and DOW, as well as NYA, which is at a double top level from January of 2018. A pullback is near but if the bulls decide not to do it today and go up a little higher the pullback to follow could be a much larger one then just 50 SPX points.

In fact it could last for several months and mark a very important all time high going into 2020, which I have been thinking could see as high as 3300 in early January or February. But a small pullback is needed soon to reach that level I believe. I'm basically looking for a small wave 4 down and then a long wave 5 up to end it with that upside target as my goal. Continuing to grind higher over the next few days might kill that line of thinking that we are in some kind of wave 3 up now and a 4 down and 5 up is still needed.

Meaning that it could be that we are in the wave 5 now and there's no wave 4 down and 5 up coming. Or that that it's still a wave 3 up and the extension higher will force a small wave 4 down with an even tinier wave 5 up (likely one that truncates short of the high of the wave 3). Both counts would suggests the coming high would be "the high", regardless of it's wave count. Elliottwave counting is again... "a best guess", as I've just never seen it to be highly accurate on any short term counts.

Long term it seems to have a higher accuracy but short term is just about as good as flipping a coin in my opinion. Bottom line here is that the bulls can either go a little higher over the next few days or pullback first (starting today or tomorrow and bottoming Friday or Monday) and then go a lot higher (like to even 29,000-30,000 on the DOW) into January of 2020.

The pulling back first would probably be what Elliottwavers would call "waves subdividing"... which again is why it's hard to accurately predict with it. One must use many different methods and all them all together I believe. The FP on IWM has been fulfilled and it was put out in July of this year if I recall, so it's likely the high for the year. The VIX is very low right now and close to the low for the year, so while it could go down a little more it suggests the upside in the market is limited without some pullback first to spike the VIX up some first. All these clues tell me a drop is very near but will it start today, tomorrow, Friday or Monday is unknown. Have a blessed day.

Nice squeeze by the bulls yesterday but did you notice IWM still hasn't made a new high since the day it hit the 164.34 FP (and pierce it of course with a 165.10 all time high)? Clearly that is the likely high for the year, which is almost over but I still wanted to point that out. That FP was put out in July if I recall, so it was clearly a signal for the yearly high. With that piece of knowledge it tells me we are probably topped out on the rest of the market as well.

Today is the last trading day for the December VIX contract, and it's a common practice to market makers to crush it into expiration (officially that's at 9am EST Wednesday), so a little more on the upside today seems likely, or sideways. But tomorrow the new contract starts so from there going forward we could see them spike it up so they can sell naked calls on it and collect the premium as they know full well they will drive the market back up into the January expiration, and therefore the VIX back down again.

Needless to say I'll be looking for a move down to start tomorrow or Thursday. In the past these moves are about 80-100 SPX points and last 2 days, so if history repeats the bottom should be in by this Friday. Next week is Christmas week of course so I'd expect the market to float back up but NOT take out the current high as that won't likely come until next year some time with early January the most likely time period. That's all I see right now. Have a great day.

The futures are this morning in what might be the start of the Christmas rally? Usually it's a little closer to end of the month but maybe it's starting early this go around? I'm still looking one more pullback right after this Tuesday but I'm not looking for anything big. Maybe a 30-50 point move down I guess, and then the real Christmas rally should start. I'm not positive yet on this pullback but will get a better feel by the close tomorrow.

That's what I see for this week, and it's got medium odds of playing out. Not much else to add here as we grind higher with 3200 as the target. Considering how close we got to it last week my guess is that they will hit it this week, and that should put the bears to sleep of course, which is commonly when they do surprise pullbacks. That's all for now. Have a great day.

So much for my thoughts of going sideways for several days as the market finally broke out to the upside yesterday, which also hit the FP on IWM and fulfilled it now. That was the move I was looking for on Wednesday around the FOMC but it got delayed until yesterday I see. Last night the futures were up more but have come back a little this morning.

The DOW is the biggest lager here I think as IWM hit its FP, NYA hit a new all time, and the SPX is close to 3200, so my attention will be on the DOW as I think it needs to get up closer to 28,500... which "might" put in a nice top that is followed by an even nicer move down. Today though seems pretty over extended in momentum so I tend to think it will hold the positive open expected and close green today but I'm not expecting a move up to that DOW target by the close.

Maybe on Monday or Tuesday, who knows? Or maybe a small pullback or pause day and then up later next week, but before any real pullback worth playing happens I think that upside target must be hit. Call it mid 28,400's up to mid 28,600's on the DOW and low 3200's on the SPX. IWM though might have already topped since it hit the FP on it, but that's never a sign of an immediate turn, only an target that will be hit at some point in the future.

Now that it's hit it can go sideways for days if it wants to build a bull flag and then make another move higher, or simply rollover. There's no rules with FP's that say once hit it will make a turn the opposite direction. But, my gut tells me this FP was very likely the high for the year as it was put out many months ago and usually the longer it takes for a FP to get hit the more powerful and important it is.

Couple that with how overbought the market is on the upside, and how close the other indexes are to hitting important upside levels, and all that together tells me that IWM isn't likely going much higher, but might tread water until the others hit their targets. Hopefully the bears will get a short setup next week, but I don't see anything right now. Just bulls grinding higher after whipping the bears silly yesterday. Have a great day and may God bless you this holiday season.

The FOMC was a total snooze-fest yesterday as the market yawned and barely moved at all. This morning looks about the same with the futures basically flat again. I don't have much to say as when the market is going sideways it's gearing up for the next big move. With Christmas around the corner now I'm sure a few more days of sideways chop will look very bullish on the charts. After all, isn't the Santa rally supposed to start sometime in the second half of December?

So if this does happen I suspect the bears will be put to sleep and the bulls will be piling on long from the bull flag it should make as well as the expected time of the year rally. And if everyone is expecting a move up into the end of the year I'm going to expect the opposite... a flush out C wave down with the A down the 2 day move on the 2nd and 3rd of this month. More time is needed I think, but by early to the middle of next week I'll be looking for a short (again, if this chop-fest continues). For today, I got nothing and I expect nothing. Have a great one.

The futures are up some this morning, which is looks like chop the day before any FOMC meeting. I don't think there will be too much downside as this smells of a bear squeeze tomorrow as the Fed try to look like a hero again. My best guess that the market is consolidating today and tomorrow we go up again and make another new all time high. Remember that the FP on IWM has not yet been hit, and the NYA is really trying hard to take out its prior all time high from January of 2018. Therefore I don't think the bulls are done yet. I'll keep this post short but I'll be looking for a long into the FOMC as a rally up is very likely in my opinion. Have a great day.

The futures are down a hair this Monday morning but not really worth noting. The big event this week is the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday where traders will probably be looking for some kind of clues from the FED about the economy. Considering how this move up from last Tuesday still looks like some kind of B wave to me I tend to think it will be a "sell the news" meeting.

I haven't done a fact check study but just in the last 10 years I'd answer with 80% if someone ask me how many times does the FOMC meeting result in a positive close on the market versus negative. So if the market doesn't sell off in front of the meeting then I'm thinking this time around will fall into the 20% stat. There's still that FP on IWM lingering that about a point higher then the high on Friday, but the last time it got close it rolled over without hitting it.

It might do the same again to tease and trick everyone that see's the FP like I do. It will be hit at some point but "when" is something I can't answer. For now I'll just be looking to catch the pullback this week that retests the low of last week. I'm not sure yet if we make a lower low or higher low as if all the bears see it, and label it a C wave down (and I'm sure they do), then SkyNet isn't likely to let them profit from it. Meaning it would make a higher low so bears stay short and get squeezed on the way back up, as we know most bears will look to exit at the double bottom or pierce of it. Anyway, that's all I have for today. Have a great one and God Bless.

The futures are up again this morning as what appears to be a large B wave up in still in play. The "possible" FP from afterhours on Monday of 314.20 on the SPY might indeed be the target for this rally. However, there was another "possible" FP on the downside from afterhours yesterday. Most of these "possible" FP's are at levels that were the open or close from a previous day, which in many cases they turn out to be late fills.

This one is at 309.47 from around 4:45 pm yesterday. I do not see it hit today as it's pretty clear that the bears are likely trapped short and SkyNet isn't ready to let them out just yet. I suspect we are headed to the upside FP first and then maybe we drop to the lower one? Today I believe will be a "hold the line" day for the bulls as the market is short term overbought so they might not have much left in them on the upside without first taking a breather or rest.

If so, that leaves tomorrow for that move up to 314.20 (again, if it's real?). I don't think the selling is done though but it might just be over with for this week and then another drop can start next week. They don't make it easy on the bears as they commonly just drop it out of the blue with no warning so everyone misses the short. Once the bears have been woke up though they start squeezing them a little each day until they give up again and capitulate. That's what I see for the rest of this week. Have a wonderful day and may God Bless you always.

Yesterday did close to what I was expecting as it put in an early low and grinded up slowly the rest of the day. This kind of action looks and acts more like a wave 4 up with a 5 down yet to come (to complete the C wave of an ABC down) versus a true bottom.

So even though the market rallied up more in the afterhours/premarket session I'm cautious on how far it can go. It's right near those two premarket "possible" FP's from yesterday, so that's the first target I think.

But if it gets past there then I'd look for that higher FP from afterhours on Monday to be hit. I covered that in yesterdays post. Naturally I'm not expecting to see it hit today, but you can never underestimate the bulls. If too many "late to the party" bears short this open then a short squeeze could get us up to that higher FP by the close I guess? I'm not counting on it though.

However, if by some strange miracle it does happen (which would be around 28,000 on the DOW and the 3140 area on the SPX) I'd likely short the close. Why? Because it should squeeze out all the bears and have everyone flip back to bulls again... right at the wrong time. I'm still looking for a deeper pullback before this move down ends, so I don't think it's "off to the races" with more new all time highs coming from the first pullback low.

This should be an ABC move down, and we just in the large A part now, which subdivided into a medium ABC down I believe. It's the medium C that is the puzzle as it might have ended yesterday at the morning lows, don't know? But if so then we are in the large B up now, and it very well could go all the way up to the 3140 area if a powerful enough squeeze gets going.

After that I'd look for the large C down to hit a low of around 3040 to complete the ABC down. The more I look at this mornings current rally back up the less likely I think it's a small wave 4 up of medium C down, and the more I'm leaning toward large B up as in play right now. It could also subdivide but I get the feeling that it will be short lived... subdivided or not!

Meaning that if we simply hold this current move up all day and go sideways it will make a bull flag and will probably lure in some bears to short it. Then that last push higher for the squeeze could happen tomorrow to end the large B up by the close Thursday or possible at the open on Friday. I'm leaning toward this scenario currently. That's all I have for now. Have a great and blessed day.

Finally, the market breaks down. Of course I missed it. But that's exactly how SkyNet works. It makes sure the majority of traders miss the move and I fell into that majority. Naturally I was hoping for a bounce this morning so I could short it. But again, it's not bouncing and is going lower without me. Very frustrating for sure.

It's at a support level now from a rising teal green trendline, and it now made an ABC down if you count the afterhours sideways to slightly up move as the B wave. So, where does this C down end at I wonder? The next support below is the horizontal light blue trendline that's pointing to around 3020 right now. Will it drop straight there without a bounce is the question I wish I had an answer for, but I don't. Usually C waves are pretty scary with little to no decent bounces.

There's one afterhours "possible" FP on the SPY and two "possible" FP's in the premarket, and they all three are at higher levels. If the highest one gets hit (314.20) then of course the C wave down would be finished at todays low but if the other two are the target (311.49 and 311.64) then I'd just call that a wave 2 bounce inside the C wave down and expect lower prices still to come before this entire ABC down is finished.

If I were SkyNet and planned to take it lower I wouldn't bounce hardly any at all today and tomorrow I'd go up and hit one of the two premarket FP's at the open and then drop it hard again the rest of the day. But if I planned to make this the low for the first ABC down I'd need to run up to that higher FP over the next few days.

To fool the most sheep I'd stay weak all day long today and near the last hour I'd run it up to one of the two premarket FP's so the sheep will see it and short the bounce into tomorrow. Then I'd squeeze them tomorrow and run it up to the higher afterhours FP where they would throw in the towel and go long again. This might take until this Friday to reach, don't know? Then from there I'd start another ABC pattern down into late next week for that 3020 target, or wherever.

In both scenario's where I'm playing SkyNet most of today will be weak and holding near the low. One scenario supports this weakness into the close, then a gap up tomorrow to one of the two premarket FP's, and a rollover again. The other scenario suggests that rally up happens during the last few hours of today so the bears can short it and get trapped going into tomorrow as the market continues higher.

The third scenario would just be more down all day as the C wave heads for the 3020 area or wherever? SkyNet will just have to see how many people short this open I guess and decide if there's enough to squeeze or if too many bulls buy it and more down is needed to make them capitulate first. I have no clue which will play out but those are the clues I'll be watching for today to decide what's the next move. Good luck and may God bless you (I need it as trading this snake is very hard... LOL).

Welcome to December. Last night the futures were almost 10 points but now they are around flat. But they are still holding the rising trendline in yellow, so there's no damage done on the bull side yet. I'm not sure what to think about today as while we all know a move down is coming there's just nothing in the charts currently to tell us "when" the move will start. It's bullish until it's not... basically. The only clue left is the FP on IWM, which is still a little over 2 points higher and has not been hit yet.

But will it get hit before the correction starts or later near the end of the year after that pullback and move back up for a higher high... that's the real question? Today I'm going to focus on the DOW as it's currently holding that even number level of 28,000 and I get the feeling that if it goes below (and closes) then we'll be doing the correction first and the FP on IWM won't be hit until the next rally back up at the end of December.

History doesn't really repeat like you maybe have heard, but it does rhyme from time to time. So I'm not expecting another large drop into Christmas like last year, but pullback is looking more and more likely to happen beforehand, and that will likely wake up the bears and get them shorting it way too much, which will limit the move down as well. That's all I have for now. Have a great day.

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and your belly didn't explode from overeating yesterday. I know I gained 2-3 pound but the food was soooo good! Anyway, today is a half day I believe, closing early around 1pm EST if I'm not mistaken. I don't expect much action today so no long update. Wednesday gave us a rally into the close but afterhours around 6pm EST there was a sharp 10 point drop, and since then it's been going mostly sideways with some of the move down recaptured.

For the bears it suggests that there will not likely be a good short over the weekend, and I"m happy with that as I don't like the time decay. I say that because I don't expect much more then sideways chop again today, and until that upside FP is hit on IWM I'm not interested in any short. The only thing that might change my mind on it is if the DOW were to close back under 28,000 anytime in the next few days.

It would then suggest to me that the FP on IWM won't be hit until the end of the year and pullback is coming in early December first and the that final squeeze up into the FP to top it all out and close out 2019 on a very bullish note. I'm 50/50 on whether or not we just go on up early next week and hit the FP and then rollover, or we pullback first and then back up to hit it in late December. I'll let the market tell me what it wants to do as I'm fine with either. The clue again will be the strength (or weakness) in the DOW.

That even number level of 28,000 is very important. So I'll be watching and waiting to see what the market gives us. But again, I don't see any short setups for the close today. So have a great weekend and be ever thankful you are so blessed by Jesus to be alive and well and have all that you have. You could be living in Africa and have no home, no job, no food and no hope. Gambling in the stock market (even when you lose) is still a blessing as you have extra money to do so, and most of the world doesn't. May God continue to bless us all.

Not much to say today. It should be a slow one since it's the day before Thanksgiving. I'm more interested in how it closes... red or green. And then the more important day is Friday as I'd love to see another nice move up to close green and tag that FP on IWM. I'd then be interested in a short as I fully expect there to be a pullback next week before some year end Christmas rally takes us back up higher. We are really close though to reaching the FP on IWM as well as Oscar Carboni's DOW targets.

Not so close though on his Dow Transports levels but maybe that will be hit at the end of December, who knows? Nothing in the stock market, or the world for that matter, works logically. We have fake news for sure, but we also have a fake stock market and fake space program... and many, many other fake things out there. So don't try to make sense of it as that's impossible. I just try to listen to the crowd and do the opposite.

Right now the crowd is still bearish I believe but leaning bullish. So another rip higher is needed and I hope to see it happen this Friday. That's all for this update. Have a Happy Thanksgiving and never forget that not only is satan real (we see it all the time now with their hand signs and hollywood ritual events), so is God and Jesus. May he bless you and your family this fun eating time tomorrow.

Well, we finally saw the breakout on IWM yesterday as it ripped up much higher on a percentage basis compared to the rest of the market. Looks like it's on its way now to the FP from back in July. Once hit I suspect that will be the high for the year, which should put in the DOW in the 28,500=29,000 area I'd guess and the SPX could be over 3200 or so.

I doubt if we see much more upside today, at least compared to yesterday. From here a slow grind up is more likely then another face ripper. I'd hope we would have fell back to the "possible" FP on the SPY of 310.31 yesterday but the market opened up higher and kept on climbing. Last night around 9pm EST we saw the futures spike up higher and that has put in the overnight highs on all the markets so far, as it was a short lived move.

On the ES that level was 3145 and we are currently below that by around 10 points as I write this morning update. I don't expect much today but some sideways action to more up as light volume will be expect today, and especially tomorrow with the markets closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday. Many "turns" in market happen around holidays, and the IWM is close to its FP from July.

So after its hit, which could be this week, I do think we'll see a nice pullback put in and a possible for for the rest of the year. But as for today I just don't see much action as the big squeeze happened yesterday. Today is just a "hold the line" day for the bulls with trapped bears below. So I'll end this update early as well as there's nothing much to do but wait on the hit of the upside FP on IWM before even thinking about a short. Have a blessed day.

P.S. Looks like Oscar is going to be correct again on his year end targets...