Saturday, October 24, 2026
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Rush Limbaugh’s dangerous suggestion that Hurricane Irma is fake news

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Rush Limbaugh didn't say the magic words, but on Tuesday he basically accused the media of creating fake news about Hurricane Irma, which is threatening Florida after hitting Barbuda and Antigua. The storm's 185-mile-per-hour winds tied the record high for any Atlantic hurricane making landfall.

“These storms, once they actually hit, are never as strong as they're reported,” Limbaugh claimed on his syndicated radio show. He added that “the graphics have been created to make it look like the ocean's having an exorcism, just getting rid of the devil here in the form of this hurricane, this bright red stuff.”

Why would the media exaggerate the threat of a hurricane? Here's Limbaugh's theory:

There is symbiotic relationship between retailers and local media, and it’s related to money. It revolves around money. You have major, major industries and businesses which prosper during times of crisis and panic, such as a hurricane, which could destroy or greatly damage people’s homes, and it could interrupt the flow of water and electricity. So what happens?

Well, the TV stations begin reporting this and the panic begins to increase. And then people end up going to various stores to stock up on water and whatever they might need for home repairs and batteries and all this that they’re advised to get, and a vicious circle is created. You have these various retail outlets who spend a lot of advertising dollars with the local media.

The local media, in turn, reports in such a way as to create the panic way far out, which sends people into these stores to fill up with water and to fill up with batteries, and it becomes a never-ending repeated cycle. And the two coexist. So the media benefits with the panic with increased eyeballs, and the retailers benefit from the panic with increased sales, and the TV companies benefit because they’re getting advertising dollars from the businesses that are seeing all this attention from customers.

 

To state the obvious, these are potentially dangerous comments from Limbaugh, who is based in Palm Beach, Fla. He is encouraging listeners who might be in Irma's path not to take seriously the official guidance disseminated through the media.

“I wish that not everything that involved news had become corrupted and politicized, but it just has,” he said.

More broadly, Limbaugh's bad advice reveals the metastasizing nature of “fake news” attacks on the press, which have been led by President Trump. How did we get from Trump's claim that he has “never seen more dishonest media than, frankly, the political media” to the idea that weather reports are phony, too?

Alex Jones might have something to do with it. The Infowars founder — who has an “amazing” reputation, according to Trump — has for years promoted the notion that the U.S. government possesses the power to conjure and control weather events. Just last week, as Hurricane Harvey battered Texas, Jones devoted part of his show to questioning why the government didn't “use the technologies to kill [the storm] out in the gulf.”

“It is weird how these storms go,” he said, suggesting Harvey might have been manufactured or manipulated. “They just sit over a city.”

Jones's contention is that the government — or, more precisely, the “deep state,” now that Trump is president — uses its “weather weapon” to stoke fear of climate change and promote a liberal agenda.

 

Limbaugh, a fellow Trump booster, didn't say the deep state causes storms, but he did say “you have people in all of these government areas who believe man is causing climate change, and they’re hellbent on proving it, they’re hellbent on demonstrating it, they’re hellbent on persuading people of it.”

Limbaugh didn't say the deep state directs storms toward major cities, but he did say “hurricanes are always forecast to hit major population centers because, after all, major population centers is where the major damage will take place and where we can demonstrate that these things are getting bigger and they’re getting more frequent and they’re getting worse — all because of climate change.”

Thus we have two of the president's biggest promoters in the media telling people that news about a storm — or perhaps even the storm itself — is fake. There could be serious consequences to Trump's ceaseless effort to lower trust in institutions such as the government and the press — consequences that the president and his team might not have fully considered.

On the morning before Harvey hit Texas, CNN's Jim Acosta tweeted that a moment when “millions will be relying on national and local news outlets to stay safe during hurricane” is “not a good time to take shots at 'fake news.'”

Brad Parscale, the digital media director of Trump's campaign, scoffed at Acosta's warning, tweeting that “nobody said the weather is fake.”

Actually, whether Parscale and Trump realize it or not, somebody does say the weather is fake.


 

My thoughts on it... the Weather is 100% controlled by the elite and used to create Weather Weapons.

Hurricane Harvey & the Weather Terrorists from Land, Sea and Air

Red

ES Morning Update September 7th 2017

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Yesterday in the chatroom I discussed a possible rollover of the 60 minute MACD afterhours and curl back up by the open, and that's what it looks like it did.  I also went over the two different scenario's, which one of them has this move up from the 8/21 low as a 5 wave pattern and the other put it as a 3 wave pattern.  There's no way to know which is correct until we finish this rally up and rollover.  If we take out the 2480 high then it will be a 5 wave pattern, which I think is more likely anyway given the technical analysis side of the story, which suggests more time is needed before rolling over for another nice drop that should retest the current low and probably 2400.

My thoughts are that we need 3-4 more days to get the SPX and ES aligned together on most time frames as very overbought and ready to rollover.  Right now some of the charts are pointing up and others down (on different time frames).  Wave count wise we appear to be in a 5th wave up from yesterdays low.  I call it a medium wave, and the high afterhours, then pullback, and now back up moves are smaller waves.  It looks like we may have finished the smaller wave 1 up and smaller wave 2 down, which means we might be in the smaller wave 3 up inside medium wave 5 up.  Again, I'm no expert at elliottwave so this count could be wrong.  Regardless of the wave count I would expect the futures to fill the gap at 2467.25 from the holiday weekend.  Whether that happens today or not is unknown of course.  If we rollover before taking out the 2469 high of smaller wave 1 up then possibly the smaller wave 2 down isn't finished yet and it instead breaks down in an ABC move, which means it just needs to NOT go lower then the 2445.50 low from Tuesday.

That would push out the start of the smaller wave 3 up until Friday most likely, and that could carry into Monday and/or Tuesday of next week for the smaller waves 4 and 5 to complete this move up... and it should go higher then the 2480 recent high (meaning the gap will easily be filled).  This would be the ideal move for today in my view.  Just open up and rollover to keep us in the smaller wave 2 down all day.   Make a higher low then this past Tuesday and setup a smaller wave 3 up for Friday.  All of this projects a top by next Tuesday, and then a larger wave C down should start.  Now the tough question is... will we make a new all time high or not?  I don't know and if it does then it would "probably" throw off the wave count (some EW charists allow the B up to overlap the start of the A wave down, which was the 2488 all time high).

Regardless of the wave count at that point the technical analysis side will very likely show an overbought market that should align up together pointing down for next Wed/Thurs/Fri, and a 5 wave pattern up from the 8/21 low will have completed.  So a short will be logical no matter the wave count.  The move down could just be an ABC move to retest 2400 (like a larger C wave) or it could be some other new count where the ABC move down only retraces some Fib. Level, like 50% of the move up?  Doesn't really matter as odds will still favor a nice move down to play on the short side.  This again is all speculation on my reading and understand of the technical analysis and then putting elliottwave counts to match it all up together.  As far as today goes, I see no safe trade as charts are mixed and we don't know if we are in the start of the smaller wave 3 up or if the smaller wave 2 down isn't finished with the overnight pullback low (2457.50) and instead plans on breaking down into an ABC pattern this morning and dropping after the open.  Since we could have a down move or up move today I will just watch and not take any trades.

ES Morning Update September 6th 2017

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Yesterdays drop hit the FP on the SPY and went past it another point, and then rallied back up into the close to end the day just one cent higher... amazing.  If only I could interpret the FP's to understand the time frame on "when" they are going to get hit and "if" they will be an intraday high or low... or closing price?  But that's only for the true insiders I guess?  Anyway, it's over now and next up is another FP that showed afterhours yesterday... which looks to me like it's going to be hit right at the open today.  Does it mean we'll turn back down after hitting it or continue up?  Who knows?  So lets go to the charts for our clues on what will happen today...

The 60 minute chart for the ES Futures is showing strength this morning on its' MACD's as they rise up from almost -5.0 yesterday.  The 6 hour MACD (not shown) came down from a high of +7.5 area on Friday to +2.5 area yesterday and is trying to hook back up.  The 60 minute chart for the SPX Index got very high on its' MACD's last Friday, hitting +7.5 and has since dropped back down to almost zero with yesterdays' move down in the market.  But the longer term MACD on it (which is similar to the 4 or 6 hour chart) rose up oversold early last week (down around -3.0) to +1.0 on Friday and did a hook down with yesterdays drop but doesn't look quite finished yet on the upside.

What does all that mean you ask?  It's a guessing game where you have to mix the pieces together of the different time frames for both the SPX Cash Index and ES Futures Index.  I think it means we do a little dancing today not going up too much nor dropping too much as the charts are just not align together pointing the same direction.  I see no bullish divergence yet and quite frankly, it looks more like we get some bearish divergences setting up over the next several days before any bullish one forms.

That suggests on a bigger picture that we could see another move up past last Friday's high (doesn't have to make a double top or new all time high, but could), but all that does is setup negative divergence which tells me another drop is coming.  The "when" part I don't know as it could take awhile to form... maybe a week, don't know yet?  But it does NOT suggest that we are off to 2600 or 2700 on a break of a new all time high, but instead suggests a retest of the 2400 is very likely after this move up finishing setting up the negative divergence.  Again, I don't know if it's going to make it over Fridays' high, fall short, go on up for a double top, or even hit 2500+... but it should not be an easy move up like last Friday.  This time around it should have some choppy action in it.

I see no edge for bulls or bears today so I wouldn't short or go long but instead just wait for another setup to show up.  I will say that "if" the bulls would drop this market today and allow the bears to take it lower then yesterdays' low then some positive divergence would likely setup and allow a nice rally to start.  This is speculation on where I think the MACD's will end up at if we dropped to the 2430-2440 area today, so it's not written in stone of course.  Maybe it will take two days to setup?  Not sure, but that's the only way I can see any bullish (positive) divergence setup... otherwise this slow grind up will setup negative divergence in the coming days and the bears will have another shot later next week (or sooner?  depends on how fast it sets up?).  So, my plan for today is to do nothing... just wait and watch for either a nice bullish setup or a bearish one to appear.

ES Morning Update September 5th 2017

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I hope everyone had a great slave day... errr, labor day.  It's it nice that we sheep get to celebrate being a slave debtor for our master?  How crazy is that?  Let's all throw a party to celebrate having to work to pay for taxes that keep us in debt.  Now if you had a holiday called "Hang the Banksters" I love to celebrate that one, but being happy because I have to work to pay for bills that shouldn't exist (like the electric bill... should be free, or real estate taxes... what a scam) is not something I like to have a party for.  Anyway, I hope you at least enjoyed an extra day off.

Back to the market... it looks like we had a move down over the long weekend but as we all know odds favor the bulls buying this dip as the first day back is usually filled with light volume, so expect a float up today.  Looking closely at this long wave up from the 2421 low on 8/29 I can see a small wave 1 up, 2 down, 3 up and currently we appear to be in a 4 down.  So there's another reason to expect a float up today, the smaller wave 5 is needed to complete the pattern.  The alternate count is that we go up for a lower high today then last Friday and down again tomorrow to hit the FP on the SPY from last week, which I think is more likely to happen then a nice wave 5 up to make a slightly higher high (then Friday).

I just don't see that in the technical's as they suggest we'll go lower, and that means it's probably not a smaller wave 4 down.  SkyNet doesn't want all the elliottwave traders to figure out the wave count and short that wave 5 top.  So it's more likely going to tease them today and rally up just under that Friday high of 2480 to leave them guess about tomorrow, which should be another move down from what I see in the charts.  Therefore, if we are lucky enough to get a rally into the close today I'd be interested in a one day short into Wednesday for a move down to the FP on the SPY.  As far as the rest of the week, it's too early to tell right now.  But it sure looks like we'll be rangebound for awhile longer.  I don't see some huge rally start that takes out the current all time high and I don't see a breakdown below 2415 either... at least not this week.  Next week... who knows?  Maybe a breakdown or a breakthrough?

ES Morning Update September 1st 2017

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Another day and the bulls are still running hard.  I guess they liked the NFP Report numbers?  But nah, it's all in the charts really.  The daily chart hooked back up on the SPX Cash Index and still has room to go more.  The 6 hour chart on the ES Futures is up quite high now on its' MACD's but with support from the daily chart it could easily just rollover to flat in a day or so and take another week or so before it gets tired and rolls over... kinda like the July 17th-21st and then 21st-25th period.  You'll see it stayed up in the +5.0 to 7.5 for awhile as the price level of the market grinded sideways and then higher.  Now I will say that in defense of the bears the second time a market makes a strong move up there will be more resistance, so we may or may not see a new all time high?  I just can't say on that call.

More then likely we'll see a pullback early next week to weaken that MACD and turn it flat up there in no man's land.  Then back up and down for another week or so as the bulls and bears fight in the 2465-2485 area.  I don't see this as being an easy fight as the bulls want a higher high and the bears plan to stop them and keep this entire rally up as just a larger B wave to make a lower high so they can take it down harder for the larger C wave that will come next.  Could it start next Tuesday after the holiday's?  Sure, I guess?  But I wouldn't bet big on it.  I think we could see a pullback but the bulls will likely buy the dip and bring it back up shortly afterwards.  The charts tell me we are going need 1-2 weeks of fighting in the zone before the bulls give up.

Of course if the bears lose we could see another big squeeze over the 2488 all time, which might put on another 50-80 points?  I have no way of knowing there for sure on that but it should keep rallying as long as the bears keep shorting over the all time high.  Personally, I give that scenario low odds but no matter what the charts still say it's going to be mid-September before we can rollover and produce a nice drop again.  Now that could (and should) change (be pushed out by days or weeks) if a new all time is hit and the bulls take out 2500.  This scenario is based on the lower high, which I give the higher odds to.  Basically a 1-2 week battle in the zone (again, 2465-2485) is likely before the charts get overbought enough (and weak enough) to give up the ship to the bears and allow that larger wave C down to start.

My thoughts for today are that we should chop around the current level with a slow grind up possible into the close to make the Labor Day Weekend a happy place for all the sheep shoppers thinking everything is just fine.  But, there's a downside FP on the SPY that showed up around 4:52 pm (EST) yesterday, and while I don't think it is a target for today it could be?  Odds favor it as a target for next week sometime, but a surprise move down today to hit the FP isn't totally out of the question.  So if you see a drop start it might be a sneaky way to reset the short term overbought charts by the bulls to allow another attempt back up early next week.  Too hard to know the answer on that one but if we close up here in the current area (or higher) my vote is that we'll go down next Tuesday/Wednesday to hit that FP and then back up and down, etc... for that 1-2 week fight "in the zone"!  Have a Happy Labor Day Weekend everyone.

ES Morning Update August 31st 2017

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Looks like the futures are grinding up again this morning, which is to be expected for a C wave (or wave 3?) up.  The small pullback before the open yesterday was some smaller degree wave 2 I'd guess, and that leaves us in the "squeeze" wave this morning.  The good ol' "smaller wave 3 up" inside "medium wave C up", and that should shake out some bears!  Naturally this wave counting is again subjective and simply my thoughts on how they align up with the technicals in the charts.  I said yesterday that the SPX and Futures just needed to align up together and we'd see a strong rally... well, they certainly did as the daily now (on the SPX) has hooked back up on its' MACD's and its' Histogram bars have went from -5.0 to just a hair under zero.  But, there's NO Positive Divergence yet on them and that suggests another move down will come at some point before they start making positive histogram bars like the prior +4.0 high in mid-July.

What does all that mean you ask?  It "suggests" to me (never really know for sure) that we will only make a lower high on this rally up and have another series of waves down that should take out the 2415 low.  It's basically supporting the medium ABC down for the larger A wave still being the move from the 8/8 high (2488) to the 8/21 low (2415), and the market now being in the medium ABC up to make the larger B wave.  So, a larger C wave down still looks to be setting up from what I currently see in the technical picture.  The weekly chart still has a bearish cross on its' MACD's too and negative divergence.  Considering we are in the spooky period of August to October where the bears wake up, I'd have to think the bulls will need positive divergence on the daily chart to move much higher.  This larger C wave is going to be hard too time but somewhere in the next week or so I'd think we'd top out on this medium C wave, thus ending the larger B... so somewhere in September we should start the next series of waves down.

Ok, for today what do I see? Probably a whole lot of nothing... meaning the bulls look tired up here but aren't ready to give up the new level they just aquired.  The 6 hour MACD looks strong still with no signs of rolling over.  In fact it might be next week before we see it give up some ground, which should then allow a pullback in the price level.  It's looking a lot like the time period between 7/11 and 7/27 where it kept grinding higher day after day before having a fast one day drop on 7/27, which was bought up just as fast and lead to the 8/8 high.  The bottom line here is that the bears are still not out of the woods thinking that this current all time high will hold.  There's no doubt that SkyNet will dance around that high in the coming days to lure in all the bulls expecting a new one and shake out the bears shorting.

It will boil down to SkyNet figuring out the number of bears short versus bulls long to determine if a new higher high will be needed or just a lower one.  I can only go with the current thoughts that based on the seasonality of the months we are going into that there will only be a lower high and a larger C wave is still coming.  If this were earlier summer, when the market is still bullish seasonality wise, I'd expect that wave count to be wrong and a new all time to be put in.  Whether we put in that new all time high on this trip up or not after the C wave down ends and November/December starts I do expect another higher high (a blow off top) in 2018 as I just don't see enough evidence to support the current high being the "all time high" that marks the start of the bear market.  I think another huge rally is needed to suck in the retail traders, but I'll save those thoughts for another time.

ES Morning Update August 30th 2017

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Looking at both the SPX and the Futures charts this morning we still seem to be mixed, whereas the futures are now overbought and wanting to go down but the SPX is still oversold. It's not an easy forecast for today, but I'll go with another pullback (smaller then yesterday) to setup a more powerful rally later this week... like as early as Thursday. It's a triangle pattern on the futures and a falling channel on the SPX, but with the higher lows from the 8/21 low we also have a triangle inside that falling channel. So if I had to guess I'd say that yesterdays' gap down ended the medium B wave down and started the medium C wave up. The first rally up from yesterdays low was probably a smaller wave 1 up and today we should see a smaller wave 2 down, leaving the smaller wave 3 up for tomorrow (all inside medium wave C up).

The wave counts aren't that important too me but instead I like to focus on catching the C wave or wave 3 of whatever degree it is... and that usually happens when you get both the SPX and the futures in sync together pointing up. I see the SPX daily chart trying to curl back up on its' MACD's and the longer term MACD's on the 60 minute chart are slowly coming up from the bottom and trying to get some momentum started. The shorter term MACD's on that same 60 minute chart have already came up from about -10.0 and have been trading sideways for over a week at the zero line. All this tells me is that very soon it should turn up sharply and go positive just while the longer term MACD gets going up from its' -2.5 level right now and the daily turns back up too. While that all lines up we should see the futures bounce around the zero line on their MACD's (for the 6 hour chart) and turn up into positive territory as early as tomorrow.

So if you are a bull you will want to see the market pullback today and close in the red for that smaller wave 2 down to finish. If you are a bear you'll want the futures to hold the current area and grind up higher all day after the open to extend the smaller wave 1 up from yesterdays low. That would push out the rally by a day I guess as we'd still need that pullback for the smaller wave 2 down, and if we don't get it today then tomorrow will be the likely time for it to come. I will say this... pattern-wise we have an MA on the 60 minute chart of the SPX, and that's a bearish pattern that suggests another retest of the 8/21 low is coming. I think it will fail if we can get that smaller wave 2 today but if they push it out until Thursday then we might just see it... and if so, it will throw that wave count off. Which again is why I always just try make the wave counts fit the technical picture as I've found that to work best for me. In conclusion, I'd go long if we have that nice pullback today and close red and I'd go short if we don't get it and rally up more today into the close.

ES Morning Update August 29th 2017

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Looks like the 6 hour MACD finally rolled over as I thought it might either Monday or Tuesday. Isn't it funny how everything was setting up for another move down before the news event about North Korea and missiles came out? It was clearly in this chart that one more move down was needed to setup a positive divergence on the MACD's... which should happen today and tomorrow. Now, here's the tricky part, is this move down going to take out the 8/21 low of 2415 or will it be a higher low? It makes a difference for sure as the wave count would change if it's a lower low, and it would be much more bearish as well. Right now I'm still thinking we had an ABC pattern down from the 8/8 high of 2488 to the current low and that we started another 3 (or 5?) wave series up from there, with the A wave ending at the 8/22 high of 2454, then some chop for a few day and finally another drop this morning to complete the B wave down (or 2 wave?). If this is still the count then we should make a higher low today and into tomorrow and start the C wave up by Thursday at the latest. This count suggests a very strong move up that could retest the current all time highs.

The alternate count would mean we would have to make a lower low today or tomorrow and then I'd have to call this move down a 5th wave from the current all time high. If we get that move then I don't see the bulls having much chance on a double top or even a higher high on the move back up from it as the trend will have likely changed to bearish whereas right now it's still unconfirmed if we are current just having a pullback within the long time running bull trend or if we topped out and are changing the trend. Regardless of which we just have to focus on what we can trade and right now I see a good chance of a nice rally coming soon from either a C wave up or wave 3... which count is unknown but if it's a 5 wave pattern up then we should still be in the bull trend (this assumes a 3 wave pattern down is correct too, meaning we do not make any lower low). Ok, so at this point what I'm looking for is the 2420-2430 area to hold on this move down today and into Wednesday where a long setup should appear that will likely put a hurting on the bears as it will be either a wave 3 or C up and both are powerful waves. If we make a lower low then I'll have to rethink what to do but my gut tells me that count has low odds. So I'll just wait patiently for the bull setup to appear and hope for the best.

ES Morning Update August 25th 2017

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Today do not look good for the bulls as they did not go down deep enough to reset the short term overbought charts and get them neutral or oversold so they could rally next week.  Instead they are just getting more and more overbought and look too me like they are setting themselves up for a fall next week.  The 6 hour chart is of big concern to me right now, which is why I'm showing it too you here.  Looking at the MACD's you can see how tight the black and red lines have become and you can see what happen previously (back on 8/16) what happened shortly afterwards.  If the bulls hold this market up all day today they are likely in big trouble early next week.  There will be overbought conditions setting up on the SPX 60 minute chart too, besides this 6 hour chart of the ES Futures.

And the daily chart of the SPX is still pointing down strong on its' MACD's with them now going deeper into bearish territory (meaning... below the zero line).  They've tried to turn back up twice but failed each time.  The weekly chart on the SPX is also pointing down strongly with its' MACD's.  Basically, the only thing keeping the market from dropping again is that the ES Futures and SPX aren't aligned up together pointing down... YET!  When they do align, and that's looking likely for Monday, maybe Tuesday, another big move down should happen.  I'm unsure on the wave count as you know I like to focus first on the alignment of the technical analysis for both the ES Futures and SPX Cash Index, and then try to see what the likely wave count is based on that.  For now I'll just say that whatever this move up from the bottom is... when it ends today or early next week a nasty move down should follow.  I'll try to guess the wave count afterwards.  Maybe later today I can get a better feel for where we are?  If so, I'll do another chart update and post it in the chatroom.  Have a great weekend everyone.

ES Morning Update August 24th 2017

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As always SkyNet keeps me guessing.  Yesterdays' failure to produce a smaller 5th wave up, and instead dropped into a down move that appears to be too large to be label a smaller 4th, has me guessing at where we are.  So lets do some guessing... the move up from the 2415 low to the 2455 high clearly had 3 smaller waves inside it and it looks complete to me, therefore let's call it medium wave A up, and medium B down might have completed at the 2435 low from yesterday.  Meaning we should be in medium wave C up right now.  This wave needs to take out the 2455 high for medium A and will find resistance in the 2457 area where the falling blue trendline hits as well as 2467 from the rising green trendline.  This will be called scenario one.  It should complete today or tomorrow if it plays out.  You'll notice the MACD's went from +5 down to -2.5 and are now coming back up again.  For this to play out we need the MACD to make a lower high on this trip up while the price level makes a higher high, and I think there's good odds of this happening as +5 isn't hit very often and going higher on a 2nd trip up seems unlikely.

Scenario two is that we don't take out he 2455 high and rollover into a nasty wave down.  With this case happening yesterdays' move down would be some smaller wave 1 (or A) and the up move this morning a smaller wave 2 (or B), leaving a smaller wave 3 down (or C) to retest the 2415 low.  It might make a higher low or lower low... unsure on which?  If a lower low then the entire move down from the 2488 all time high could get relabeled as a 5 wave pattern, not an ABC move.  If we make a higher low then it could still be medium wave B down that just subdivided, leaving a stronger medium wave C up for all next week.  It's really a hard call right here but I'm leaning toward scenario one... meaning either medium B down is done yesterday, or will be done by the close today with a higher low.  Then medium C takes us above 2455 by next week at the latest.  But if medium B was finished yesterday then would see medium C up finished today or tomorrow.  Anyway, the reason I'm leaning toward scenario one is the SPX chart is lagging behind, whereas its' MACD's are still too oversold in my opinion to justify a large drop that takes out 2415 and 2400.  Yes, I think we'll see that happen at some point, but I think it's not going to start until more time has passed to get the MACD's on the SPX Cash Index back to at least neutral.

My thoughts for today... if we can't get past 2455 within the first couple of hours today I think we'll rollover later in the day.  I'm thinking we'd make a higher low in the 2420-2430 area by Friday and that it will still be medium wave B down just subdividing.  If for some reason we make it past 2455 today and close up near the high (like hitting the blue falling trendline or higher) we'll be very overbought short term and will have likely completed the medium C up... meaning I'd be looking to short it.  I don't give this much odds, but it's certainly possible (and welcome for this ol' bear).  The likely path is to stay below 2455 and rollover at some point today (or Friday morning).  While it could break the 2415 low I don't see that happening based on what I see in the technical's, which again why I think it will just be part of the medium B wave down.  From what I see on the SPX charts we need 3-5 days more to work off short term oversold conditions, which works out well for a rally next week to get out of the falling channel the bulls are trapped in.  I still do not see a new all time high but we are too far away from next week to predict how the charts will align themselves, so I won't speculate on price levels.

ES Morning Update August 23rd 2017

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This morning we see some selling in the futures market, which leaves me wondering if my call to NOT go short yesterday and wait for a little bit more on the upside today... was right or not?  This still has the look and feel of a 5 wave move up, not just based on elliottwave but mostly on technical analysis.  And since the strong rally up yesterday was very likely a smaller wave 3 up I was looking for the smaller wave 4 down today and 5 up later into the close to get the ideal spot to short at.  But the market never gives you what you want and always tries to trick you.  So I missed a good short yesterday it seems.

Now I'll have to watch and wait today to see if this move down reverses back up to make the smaller 5th or if the whole rally up from the Monday low was just a 3 wave pattern that ended at the close yesterday.  If so, then we should be starting the next 3 or 5 wave move down and I'd guess that it will drop into the 2420-2430 area before finding support and bouncing again.  I don't see it breaking the current low as more time is needed on a daily chart to shake out the bears and get them back on the bull side again thinking the selling is over.  A good tease move down to make a higher low will give the bulls lot's of short bears to squeeze for the next move up later this week and/or next week.

At this point I think we are going to see a lot of these strong and fast rallies up followed by sharp drops, but I still think we'll hold the 2400 level at least through the end of this month.  This period has the look and feel of the 1-2 months prior to the August 24th, 2015 flash crash.  But we are early in this period, like somewhere in June I think.  For today it appears I got the forecasted 5 wave pattern up wrong, so I'll be looking for a low on this move by tomorrow to re-evaluate the wave counts and patterns.  We should be going up next week as light volume is expected prior to Labor Day, but we'll just have to wait and see I guess.  Better to play it day by day as forecasting the longer term picture is much harder to get correct.

One more thing, if the market reverses back up shortly after the open and acts strong then the 5th wave up might still be in play?  I doubt if this happens as most likely it will just be a lower high then yesterdays' closing high, but if for some reason we do rally hard I'd look for the falling blue trendline pointing to around 2457 as the end of the 5th wave up and the next spot to short at.  I'm not expecting this to happen though as the current move down from yesterdays' high seems to be too deep for a 4th wave, but I'm no expert at elliottwave so I don't know all the rules.  I just try to fit the wave patterns into what I see in the technical analysis of the market.  I look at many different charts on different time frames and compare both the SPX Cash Index and the Futures to get a better idea of what will happen next.  Currently I see the SPX as too oversold still for any breakdown below 2400, which why I think we'll remain rangebound above that level and below the curren t all time for some time but at some point we'll breakdown... just not likely today.  Anyway, down side target is 2420-2430 if this is a new series of waves down.  If not, then upside target is the falling blue trendline.  Not sure which is going to play out... tough call.

ES Morning Update August 22nd 2017

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Yesterdays' dip down to make another lower low now appears to me like it completed the tiny 5th wave, meaning todays' move up is likely a new series of "up" wave as the "down" waves appear done for awhile.  Now the BIG Picture:  We had a big A wave (which I'm going to label "medium") from the 2488 high to the 2430 low, then the medium B up ended at 2473, with the medium C down "likely" ending at yesterday's low 2416.  That whole ABC down is of course some larger wave... whether it's a A or wave 1 down, I don't know, and it's not important.  But we'll call it a large A as most bear moves (the big ones) happen in 3 waves versus 5 for the bulls.  Now if we are starting the large B wave up then it should also breakdown into smaller waves too.

The first medium wave A up could break down into 5 smaller waves and we just can't count them accurately until it's over with.  Guessing at the wave count is just that... guessing.  The medium C up (when it comes later this week or more likely... later next week, will probably take us up to retest the 2473 high and end the ABC wave series to make the larger B wave up.  That suggests that the next series of waves down will break the 2400 support as it should be a large C wave.  When that move ends we will have completed a large ABC down to make some even bigger A wave down.  We'll call that a giant A, which suggests a giant B up into early October.  After that we'll see a giant C wave down, which could also be a crash wave if this all sets up as I think it might.

Back in 2015 a few months before the August 24th crash I was counting the wave patterns and this series of waves is eerily the same.  The difference of back then versus now was that the flash crash produced a Primary Wave 4 down only, so the bull market still had the Primary Wave 5 up yet to come.  This time around the Primary Wave 5 appears to have ended at the most recent highs this year.  That further suggests that we are about to enter a 2-3 year bear market should this play out as all the bull "Primary Waves" up will be completed leaving a set of three "Primary Waves" down for the bears.  Now no one really knows for sure any of this and while I find Elliottwave (EW) helpful in forecasting "possible" moves in the future, by NO means is it something that you can expect to be perfect.  There are just too many different wave counts that happen after the current one fails.  So this count is just speculation based on many factors not related to EW, one is technical analysis, with historical pattern for the fall season, as well as presidential cycles.  So don't hold my feet to the fire on this call but right now it does look like we are setting up for a crash in October.

For the short term I don't see today as starting any really strong move up as at most it's just a small wave 1 in a medium A up, so I wouldn't touch it on the long side until at least the smaller wave 2 down is complete.  Then maybe one could ride up the smaller wave 3 up in the medium A as that should be a nice move.  I could see it setting up by the close today and starting Wednesday morning.  Then the smaller 4 and 5 would complete that medium A up on Wednesday or possibly Thursday.  A pullback into Friday for the medium B down would be expected next, followed by the medium C up next week going into the Labor day weekend.  Perfect setup for the following week to start the next big move down.  That's the short term forecast.  I'll give updates in the chatroom and the next daily morning update as I see things change.

PS:  Here's the image of the wave count I did right before the August 24th, 2015 flash crash

You'll notice that I only forecasted a move down to about 2002.11 for the C wave (aka, the "crash" wave), which was obviously too conservative as the actually low that followed was 1867 SPX.

Back then I also had "passport codes" pointing to August 24th, 2015... which I only talk about now in the chatroom.  And yes, I have another code for this October.

Soros continues betting against US stock market despite mounting losses

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US regulatory filings show George Soros is still investing in options that will profit him only if the stock market they are linked to declines in value.

Soros Fund Management held put options on PowerShares QQQ Trust, SPDR S&P 500 ETF, iShares Russell 2000 ETF as of June 30. Each is an exchange-traded fund that tracks a broad US stock market index. The bet is worth $1.8 billion. Soros stands to profit only if the stock market falls.

Michael Vachon, a spokesman for Soros Fund Management, said the company would not comment on the filing.

Soros continues betting against US stock market despite mounting losses

In January, Soros said "it's impossible to predict" US President Donald Trump's actions, but he was nonetheless sure the market would plunge.

Soon after the election, Soros lost over $1 billion by taking a short position on the market. While Soros called Trump a "would-be dictator," and predicted uncertainty and a sell-off after his win, the markets have rallied significantly.

The US S&P500 index is up over 10 percent this year, the Nasdaq is up 18 percent, and Dow Jones is up over 11 percent.

Soros is best known for making a fortune on his short play against the British pound. On 16 September 1992, Soros' $10 billion short position on the pound forced the Bank of England to withdraw Sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) after it was unable to keep the currency above its agreed lower limit in the ERM.

ES Morning Update August 21st 2017

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Another weekend gone by and almost another month.  It's hard to believe sometimes that's it August... time just passes by so quickly these days.  Anyway, we have pretty much a flat open today.  Looking at the charts, especially the 6 hour, they look just about ready to rally.  But, the first attempt might not hold so I'm not jumping on the bull train just yet.  In fact, the move down from 2473 (which is likely a larger C wave) appears to have 5 waves in it already, so we might start the first wave up today in a series of waves, and the low could be in?  I say that with caution as I'm not 100% sure the wave 4 and 5 of the larger C down are complete yet.  If the wave 4 up ended at 2439 then the 5 down has hit 2419 so far and may or may not be finished?  That 5th wave down might subdivide into smaller waves for all I know?  There's great support around the even number of 2400 and possibly the market wants to get a little closer to it so it can lure in the most bears before a strong bounce starts.

So today and tomorrow might be choppy around this area and actually go a bit lower.  But by the middle of the week I do expect a rally to start that should be a powerful squeeze.  In fact I could see another attempt for a higher high, but I don't think it will happen.  More likely a move above the 2473 area by a little to run some stops the bears have there, but below the 2488 all time high.  It's common for "them" run the market up in front of Labor Day, which is next Monday September 4th.  The market will be closed then making it a long 3 day weekend starting this Friday after the close.  So a rally to run out the bears is very likely, and we all know how powerful these rallies are.  It's never about reality, it's always about forcing bears to cover their shorts that causes such violent and fast moves up.

But don't fall for the "bull market is back" trap as this move up is likely a trap for the bulls and should be shorted in my opinion.  So for today, I'm looking (and trying to get a feel for...) the end of the 5th wave down inside the larger wave C down.  A rally looks really close now and should start today or tomorrow I think.  I also think it will take out the 2473 area to clean out the bears.  It might take all week but by Friday I expect higher prices and today or early tomorrow I can only see another 10-15 points on the downside as possible... maybe none?  Have fun staring at the moon tonight...

ES Morning Update August 18th 2017

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Ok gang, we finally got our C wave down it seems.  I was hoping for a little higher but didn't get it.  Today I have no clue as to what will happen.  Generally speaking, after a large down day, if the market wants to continue down there will be a "pause" day where it trades mostly sideways.  But when it wants to end the down move we tend to see a big squeeze up on the bears.  Probably is, I think most bears missed this whole move.  And I think that even if have a strong move up the larger time frame charts (like the weekly and daily) are still putting downward pressure on the market... along with the historical data for the month of August, September and October.

So even if they do have a strong rally today and maybe into Monday or Tuesday I still think the trend has changed and that it will just be a bounce before another large drop happens.  For now, the high looks to be put in for at least the next few months.  Maybe we have a Christmas Rally to put in a new higher high again but that's too far away to speculate on at this point. For today I'll just sit on my hands and hope for a rally to short.  I won't risk a long here and it's too "short term" oversold to short.  Plus I saw a "possible" target via a FP on the SPY afterhours yesterday and I'd love to see it rally up to that level by the close.

But to be more realistic I half to think we'll just have a "pause" day where there's small rallies and small moves down but at the end of the day we'll still be about flat from yesterdays' close.  I'm rooting for the bulls here as I think next week is going to be bear heaven and I'd like a great spot to short at.  Unfortunately, SkyNet rarely gives the bears anything they want.  Good luck to us all and lets bunker down for a possible crash next week.  I hope it doesn't happen but you never know for sure.  Have a great weekend everyone and if you have any information you'd like to share please stop by the chatroom.  It's still free.  And of course if you just want to get the latest thoughts I have throughout the day it's all posted in the chatroom.

ES Morning Update August 17th 2017

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Yesterday I mentioned (in the chatroom) the pattern I noticed about Fed meeting's where they delay any big move down for a couple of days after the meeting as they don't want to be blamed for it.  I still think that is the case here and today will probably be a red day but tomorrow I think they will take it back up.  Now, will it breakthrough the recent 2473 and 2474 tops... I don't know?  At this point in time, and this late in August, I have to think the high is already in and we'll start down next week.  This move down today and expected move back up tomorrow (to stay under 2474) is probably the start of a bigger C wave (or 3 wave?) down.  By tomorrow we should have most all the charts showing some negative divergence.

Even the 6 hour chart should have it with a small move up tomorrow.  It's already here on this 60 minute chart and it's showing up on the 60 minute chart of the SPX Cash Index too.  The daily chart has had it for months now and so has the weekly chart.  So I just don't see how the bulls can escape this down move coming.  August, September and October or notoriously bearish periods of the year and with the market up at nose bleed levels with negative divergences everywhere I just have to put the odds in the bears favor.  Meaning this next trip down should break the 2400 level as it should be a C wave and that's a very powerful wave.  I'm guessing we'll see the wave 1 down today of that C wave and wave 2 up tomorrow... leaving the wave 3 down of C for Monday.  That's what I see, so in my opinion a short should be taken at the close on Friday if this plays out like I expect it too.

ES Morning Update August 16th 2017

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Looks like we our lower high forming now on the MACD's of this 60 minute chart, which will create our negative divergence.  All we need is for the price level to squeeze out a little higher high then the 2473 recent high.  It could have truncated with this premarket mornings 2471.25 high?  Hard to say for sure.  We have the FOMC minutes reading of last months reading today at 2pm, so we could see some chop until then (with a downward bias) and then another move higher?  Today is a tough one I can clearly see we are setting up for a move down as the charts tell me so.  Even the 6 hour chart shows its' MACD line now above zero and contracting toward each other... mean they could rollover too.  But I'd still like to see a little more on the upside before shorting.

Shorting yesterday just didn't produce much downside and I mentioned that in the chatroom as well.  It was a small short near the open but it was a one day move as well.  The next short should be more then one day and much deeper, but I'm a little concerned about shorting on a Fed Day as those gangsters never like to be blamed for anything and commonly hold the market up for another couple of days before it drops, and then they blame it on some other news event.  That suggests Friday could be the best day to short, but again, that's all based on past history of Fed Days over the last few years.  Charts tell me something different.  They suggest that any move up into the 2475-2480 range should be shorted.  So if we see that today then I'm a bear... if not, then I'm just going to nibble on small quick trades "in and out" until a better short appears.

Only this future chart shows that it's ready to rollover today, and all that is needed is a higher high (preferably into the 2480 area).  The SPX Cash Index is lagging behind and could be stretched out until Friday if the Fed's want to do so.  Some nice negative divergence could be setup on it by then for sure.  Of course that doesn't mean we won't go down before then. It only "suggests" that any move down will be short lived and reversed at some point.  So if we rollover right at the open and drift down today then I think it will just be part of the B wave down with the A wave up being the 2430 to 2473, leaving the C wave up (2480 area) for later this week.  If it hit today, then I'd short it.  But if not I'm just in a "don't know" mode where I don't have good odds for a strong move in either direction.  And when I have 50/50 odds I just sit on my hands and wait for something better.  That's what I see for today and possibly the rest of the week.  A move down early... probably just an extension of the B wave, a rally up to 2480 area is a good short and probably ends the ABC up.

ES Morning Update August 15th 2017

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Looks we got a little more follow-through on the upside this morning, which didn't surprise me considering the strong move up yesterday.  Plus, while this 60 minute chart was very overbought on its' MACD's the 6 hour chart wasn't, and that was the clue to me that said it was likely to strength into today.  Now, the question I have is "will we rollover near the open" or "will we close up near the highs and rollover tomorrow"?  That's a tough one as I just can't answer it.  I don't "feel" like it's going to happen right at the open, nor do I think it's going to keep this level all the way into the close.  I guess all that is left is for it to rollover at some point during the day.  Maybe we go back up to retest the premarket highs and even a little higher... like to 2475 or so.  But a move down is very likely coming at some point today or tomorrow.

So I'll be looking to enter some shorts slowly but I want to have some partial position on before the close as I really think it could roll as early as midday today.  The MACD on this 60 minute chart is trying to turn back up but it's really weak in my opinion as we are very extended on the entire rally up.  Anyway, I'll keep today's' post short.  I'm looking for a high here today that will either produce a nice B wave down with yesterdays' rally up be the A wave, or we'll see a C wave down that takes out the current low with the A wave down being from the 8/8 high to the 8/11 low and B wave up being yesterdays' strong rally.

10 years after financial crisis..another crash is “almost inevitable”

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Ten years on from the start of the global financial crisis, one of only a handful of economists to predict the crash, Professor Steve Keen, warns another one is “almost inevitable.”

On August 9, 2007, the French investment bank BNP Paribas announced it was shutting down three investment funds specializing in the US subprime market, explaining it was struggling to calculate their values against a backdrop of growing concerns over liquidity.

The rest is history. Banks collapsed, unemployment soared, and some governments even went bust. For a decade, politicians, regulators, and financiers have sought to find ways to recover and stop a similar catastrophe befalling the system.

Keen, now head of the economics department at Kingston University in London, anticipated the last financial crisis at a time when most academic economists complacently didn’t.

Speaking to RT, Keen said another financial crisis could be just around the corner unless a fundamentally different approach to debt is adopted. He says we are too focused on government debt, when what actually caused the crisis was “run-away private debt.”

“The economy in the UK is not stable. It’s in the aftermath of the biggest financial crisis since the great depression, and there’s still a lack of awareness in the political classes about what actually caused the crisis in the first place,” Keen said.

“The Tories were incredibly successful in convincing the electorate that the crisis was caused by government spending, which is absurd. That is technically saying government spending in the UK caused the financial crisis in the United States. Which is just nonsense.

“And that gave us austerity for the last 10 years. That austerity has actually further weakened the economy.”

Keen says the level of private debt in the UK peaked at about 195 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) post-crisis. While it is now down to about 170 percent of GDP, it is roughly three times the level of debt England carried before the Margaret Thatcher era, he says.

“That’s the stuff that’s being ignored. Nothing is really being done about that. With the amount of debt just sitting there we are still likely to have another crisis – but more likely, we are going to have stagnation.”

What is cause for concern, Keen says, is what he calls the “zombie-to-be” economies, such as Australia, Belgium, China, Canada, and South Korea, which avoided the 2008 crisis by borrowing their way through it.

Now they have a bigger debt burden to deal with when the next crisis hits, which could be between 2017 and 2020, he says.

“[The ‘zombie-to-be’ economies] are roughly equivalent in size to the American economy. So when they fall, then there will be a crisis that affects the rest of the world, including the UK.”

Keen sees China as a terminal case. It has expanded credit at an annualized rate of around 25 percent for years on end. With private sector debt exceeding 200 percent of GDP, China resembles the over-indebted economies of Ireland and Spain prior to 2008.

He also has little hope for his native Australia, whose credit and housing bubbles failed to burst in 2008. Last year, Australian private sector credit nudged above 200 percent of GDP, up more than 20 percentage points since the global financial crisis.

Australia shows “that you can avoid a debt crisis today only by putting it off until tomorrow,” Keen says.

ES Morning Update August 14th 2017

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Good Monday morning to everyone.  The bulls are back and bears in trouble, at least that's the way it's starting off this morning.  We have a strong rally showing up right now that busted through the black falling trendline of resistance in the 2447 area and looks to be heading up toward the blue falling trendline and green rising one.  You can see the 60 minute MACD is quite extended and trying to rollover right now.  What should happen is around the open it rolls over as trapped bulls sell and late bears short.  Then later on in the day (and hopefully into the close) it turns back up to make a lower high on its' histogram bars and higher high in the market.

If we could do that and hit those blue and green trendlines above I think it would be a great short.  But if we don't and instead just pullback a little (maybe halfway between the low last week and the morning high today) then the push back up for the lower high on the histogram bars and higher high on the price level (not higher then the current all time high, just higher then the open this morning) won't likely be seen until Tuesday.  It should then look like an ABC up and the C up on Tuesday should hit those blue and/or green trendlines I believe as it will need to do so to squeeze out all the bears.

That move down last week took a lot of traders by surprise I bet but now all the bears are fully awake, so they need to be taken out again before a move lower then 2430 will happen... at least that's my thinking.  So, either do it all today with a rally up into the close to tag the blue falling trendlines, or break it down into an ABC up and do it tomorrow.  I'm afraid that if it happens today there won't have been enough time passing to allow a move lower then the current low as the charts will still be too oversold, so if they could drag this out a least until tomorrow (better to drag out into Thursday) then we could see 2430 break on the next drop.  If not, the we may only see a higher low.

Meaning that a move up to the falling blue trendline today might just be a strong A wave up of an ABC and the short taken today might only drop to 2435-2440 into Tuesday and then the C wave up could take us to 2480 later in the week.  That scenario is a much stronger ABC wave up, whereas if we'd drop today to 2435-2440 and back up on Tuesday then that would be a weaken ABC that tags the blue trendline on its' C wave up... then we drop again in the coming days to take out 2430.  We'll call that scenario one, the weaker ABC up and scenario two will have the stronger ABC up that could last until late this week.  It will have the A wave tag the blue falling trendline and the C wave could hit 2480 late in the week.

In either scenario a short can be taken.  If we do scenario one then at the open we should see the B wave down start, whereas a short would be taken on the C wave up (I'd NOT short it on the B wave though as a safer short would be to wait for the C wave up to end at the blue falling trendline into the close or Tuesday).  In scenario two we again wait for the blue falling trendline of resistance to be hit (which would be on at the end of the A wave this time) where I'd short it for the B wave... with the small chance that it could turn into more.  Meaning that while I would be expecting a move down to say 2435-2440 or so for that B wave I'd be happen if it continued lower and broke the 2430 low from last week. So that's my thoughts for today, and this week.

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